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Quick Hits: Cubs, Dominguez, Beer

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Some stray items from around the Show….

  • Can Theo Epstein’s front office get the Cubs back on track?  Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explores the question in a detailed look at the challenges facing the team this winter, as the team’s overhaul has already led to the end of Joe Maddon’s managerial tenure but seemingly no major shuffles coming to the baseball operations department.  The Cubs’ lack of success in 2019 had arguably less to do with Maddon and more to do with the team finally paying the price after several ill-fated acquisitions clogged the roster and the farm system failed to produce much high-impact talent (especially on the pitching side).  Wittenmyer wonders if Epstein and top lieutenants Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod can guide the Cubs through this reload period now that “the industry has caught up” to some of the roster-building strategies deployed by Epstein and company in rebuilding the Cubs, or in building the Red Sox into World Series winners last decade.  To Epstein’s credit, his post-season remarks to reporters included several admissions that mistakes were made by his baseball ops group, and more significant change is on the way to the big league roster.  “If you want to say we were stubborn with this group, I think that’s fair. We had a real belief in this group.  That’s an area where I need to do a better job as a leader, letting go of the past and focusing on the future,” Epstein said.
  • “It’s never an easy thing to drop $5.1MM on one player, but he made it pretty easy,” Yankees international scouting director Donny Rowland told Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) about Dominican prospect Jasson Dominguez.  The 16-year-old Dominguez’s $5.1MM payday matched the highest bonus given to any player in this year’s international draft class, and his stock has only continued to rise now that he has seen some action in the Dominican instructional league.  Badler’s piece details how the Yankees’ international scouting staff first came across Dominguez, and how the youngster is already showing potential as a five-tool center fielder (not to mention a sixth tool of plate discipline).
  • While playing in the Arizona Fall League, Diamondbacks prospect Seth Beer is focusing on answering questions about his defensive future by improving his first base glovework, Baseball America’s Bill Mitchell writes.  The Astros selected Beer with the 28th overall pick of the 2018 draft, though he is best known for being part of the prospect package Houston sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke trade deadline blockbuster.  Beer has carried the hitting prowess he displayed at Clemson into his pro career, but since sticking as an outfielder may not be feasible, Beer has seen a good deal of first base time in order to establish a position for himself.  Playing in an NL organization, he also doesn’t have the future comfort of a designated hitter spot.  On the plus side, Beer is “excited” to have a clearer path to the big leagues with the D’Backs than he did in Houston, calling the trade “a great opportunity for me in my career.”

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Robles, Taylor

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Here’s the latest from the Nationals, who take a 2-0 series lead into tomorrow’s Game Three of the NLCS….

  • Could Anthony Rendon be open to the idea of a relatively short-term contract for a high average annual average?  “Some friends of Rendon believe that he’s more interested in a shorter-term deal…because he might not be devoted to the idea of playing for as long as he possibly can,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes, which Olney feels could make Rendon even more of an attractive target for a team like the Dodgers.  Los Angeles reportedly had interest in such a short-term deal with Bryce Harper last winter, though such efforts fell short since Harper was specifically looking for a very long-term contract.  A premium free agent like Rendon showing interest in only a very pricey deal of four or five years would be a fascinating wrinkle, as clubs would no longer have to worry about a late-30’s decline if Rendon is only under contract through his age-33 or age-34 season.  (The third baseman turns 30 next June.)  It could also create a ripple effect for future superstar free agents around the game, and the players’ union may also not be pleased at one of its top names taking what teams would certainly adopt as a precedent-setting model.  Then again, Rendon’s agent Scott Boras has long aimed to garner maximum money at maximum years for his clients, and Rendon reportedly already turned down a seven-year extension offer from the Nats worth $210-$215MM.
  • Victor Robles is expected to take part in batting practice and some running drills on Monday, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr).  Robles also did some running today and underwent treatment on his bothersome right hamstring, which was tweaked in Game Two of the NLDS.  The injury has kept Robles out of action, though there is some optimism he will be able to return for Monday’s game.  “I’m not going to anticipate anything until he comes in tomorrow. But he’s progressing and hopefully he will be ready tomorrow,” Martinez said.
  • Robles will regain the regular center field job when he is ready to play, Martinez noted.  This will send Michael A. Taylor back to the Nats’ bench, though Taylor has performed well (.300/.333/.450) in 21 plate appearances since filling in for Robles.  It marked a nice turn-around for Taylor, the Washington Post’s Sam Fortier writes, as Taylor’s early-season struggles led to a demotion to Double-A, before he finally got his swing back on track in the final days of his minor league assignment.  “I was finally able to get that feeling.  I just tried to repeat over and over,” Taylor said about a hot streak that saw him post a 1.191 OPS over his last 52 PA in the minors.  Though he was at one point a top prospect and seemed to be breaking out at the MLB level as recently as the 2017 season, Taylor has been inconsistent over his six big league seasons, but now stands as a very valuable bench asset as the Nationals continue their postseason run.

Latest On Carlos Beltran

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Former star outfielder Carlos Beltran has emerged as a popular candidate in managerial searches around the league, though Beltran has only one particular destination in mind.  Speaking to reporters (including Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe and Newsday’s Anthony Rieber) today, Beltran said that he was only interested in managing in New York, to the point of turning down interview requests from other teams.  It was already known that Beltran declined to speak to the Padres about their managerial vacancy, and he revealed today that he had also passed on a chance to interview with the Cubs.

This leaves the Mets as Beltran’s only potential landing spot if he does indeed make a move into the dugout.  He reportedly interviewed for the position last Thursday, though he didn’t officially confirm this during today’s media session.  SNY’s Andy Martino notes that the lack of confirmation could have to do with the Mets “putting high priority on secrecy” during their managerial search (though several names have already been linked to the Mets job).

Though Beltran has long expressed an interest in continuing to work in baseball after hanging up his cleats, he has been particular about which opportunities he has pursued.  It’s clear that his particular interest in remaining in New York has influenced those decisions — beyond his current connection to the Mets’ job, Beltran interviewed for the Yankees’ managerial vacancy after the 2017 season that was eventually filled by Aaron Boone, and has spent the last year working as a special advisor in the Yankees’ front office.  Obviously, Beltran has longstanding ties to the Big Apple after playing for the Mets from 2005-11, and then for the Yankees in 2014-16.

Though Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has indicated he would “have a greater comfort for someone” with past managerial experience, Beltran is one of several potential first-time managers who have been on the Cubs’ radar during their own search.  Mark Loretta, David Ross, and Will Venable have never managed at the Major League or minor league levels before, though the Cubs are also slated to meet with a very experienced former MLB skipper in Joe Girardi.

Latest On Pirates’ Managerial Search

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In what has perhaps been baseball’s most nebulous search for a new manager, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets some context on the Pirates’ hunt for Clint Hurdle’s replacement. Diamondbacks vice president of player development Mike Bell and Phillies player information coordinator Sam Fuld are both of interest to the Pirates. To be clear, though, there’s no indication that either will sit down for an interview, but the organization’s interest in each of some note. Add those two names to a list that also includes Twins bench coach Derek Shelton and former Rangers skipper Jeff Banister, both of whom were previously known to be in consideration.

Both Bell and Fuld have been tied to managerial openings in the past, and Bell is currently reported to be a candidate with the Mets as well. Fuld is just 37 years old and played in the Majors as recently as 2015. He’s been in his current position in Philadelphia since late 2017, serving as a sort of liaison between the front office and players. In that sense, he seems to fit the mold of the industry’s ideal manager in 2019: young, inexperienced, analytically-inclined, a good communicator, and relatively cheap to boot. Fuld earned an interview last offseason with the Blue Jays, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reporting at the time that the young Fuld “made a strong impression” on Toronto brass, though he ultimately withdrew his name from consideration.

Bell, meanwhile, will be recognized for his roots in a distinguished baseball family: his father Buddy Bell enjoyed a fine playing and managing career, while Mike’s brother David manages the Pirates’ division-rival Reds. He interviewed with the Orioles and Rangers last offseason, so teams have been eyeing him for a bit now. Bell has been with the Diamondbacks for more than a decade, previously serving as the director of player development before he was promoted to his current role three years ago. As such, he can claim at least some of the credit for the homegrown talent that has climbed through the Arizona ranks in recent years.

It would seem that the Pirates are considering a wide variety of candidates to be the franchise’s first new manager since 2011; the organization doesn’t appear to be confining its search to a particular archetype or background, which could pay off as the team also seeks to fill out the remainder of the coaching staff. That seems a fair approach for a team that hasn’t had to undergo a managerial change in nearly a decade, especially considering the scrutiny under which general manager Neal Huntington has found himself of late. Pittsburgh is home to what may be the Majors’ most confounding managerial vacancy, with relatively little being reported regarding the organization’s hiring process. As details emerge, though, the Pirates job will certainly offer its fair share of intrigue to this offseason’s storylines.

Manager/Front Office Notes: Girardi, Young

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We’ve seen ample managerial turnover this season, with eight clubs looking to replace their dugout leaders. We’ll check in on some news on that front as we await tonight’s Game 2 of the ALCS:

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post examines the status of Joe Girardi, who seems likely to find a managerial job two years after concluding a successful decade-long run with the Yankees. He has already interviewed with the Mets and Cubs and is reportedly near the top of the Phillies’ wish list as well. Sherman’s report only adds to Girardi’s odds of getting a job somewhere, as the reporter has “a sense…someone will have to decisively win the interview process for the Mets’ first choice not to be Girardi.” Girardi to Queens is hardly a foregone conclusion; it’s possible another candidate will indeed turn Mets’ executives’ heads, and Girardi himself could find Philadelphia a more desirable opportunity, Sherman explains, especially in light of his “strong relationship” with Phillies’ team president Andy MacPhail.
  • More from Sherman, who predicts the league will see increased front office turnover at this time next year in a separate piece. As he points out, the eight departing managers (five of whom were fired, while a sixth didn’t have his expiring contract renewed) dwarf the one outgoing baseball operations head, Dave Dombrowski, who was fired as Red Sox’s president of baseball operations last month. Sherman hears from one team executive who predicts a “GM purge” in twelve months time. It’s impossible to know for certain which front office people could find themselves on the hot seat so far out. (Imagine someone telling you last November, fresh off Boston’s World Series title, Dombrowski would be the top executive to be let go in 2019). Nevertheless, Sherman takes a stab at identifying some potential front offices in flux if things don’t turn around in the coming months.
  • Michael Young is on the radar for some teams looking for a manager, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The former Rangers’ franchise player is currently a special assistant to Texas GM Jon Daniels, one of handful of notable former players serving in that role. Young, 42, has no managerial experience at any level, although that hasn’t stopped some recently-retired former players from getting a shot to lead a big league club. He has also banked a half-decade of front office work since hanging up the spikes, so there’s reason to believe Young’s familiar with the data that has swept the game in recent years. However, Heyman adds that Young’s friends indicate he’s not certain he wants to pursue a managerial position just yet, so he may be a more interesting candidate to follow in future hiring cycles than in the next few weeks.

Red Sox Likely To Tender Jackie Bradley, Explore Trade

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The Red Sox’s payroll has already emerged as one of the top stories to monitor in the upcoming offseason. With Boston’s “goal” of dropping their competitive balance tax number for 2020 south of the $208MM threshold, some difficult decisions are surely looming. After all, the Sox already have north of $150MM on the luxury tax ledger next season, per Spotrac, not counting arbitration-eligible players. (If J.D. Martinez were to opt-out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his deal, that would knock $22MM off the Sox’s tax ledger but potentially cost the team their best hitter).

On top of that, Boston’s upcoming arbitration class is massive, with twelve players projected to earn upwards of $70MM. A few (Chris Owings, Gorkys Hernández, Steven Wright) are easy non-tenders, which will knock the projected arbitration earnings down $5-6MM. Still, it’s clear that the math doesn’t position the Red Sox to reset their tax number especially easily. The team’s yet to be determined long-term baseball operations head will have some challenges to overcome.

To that end, Christopher Smith of Mass Live hears that the current front office is already discussing potential non-tenders which could ameliorate payroll concerns. While Jackie Bradley, Jr. (projected $11MM salary) may stand out as a speculative non-tender candidate, Smith opines it’s more likely than not the Sox will indeed tender the 29 year-old a contract. (Catcher Sandy León, Smith hears, is in bigger jeopardy of losing his job after another abysmal offensive showing.)

2019 was a disappointing one for Bradley, although he did rebound from a nightmarish April to post a pretty typical .225/.317/.421 line (90 wRC+). That marked the third straight season of below-average offensive production for Bradley, making his strong 2016 season look like an aberration. Of course, Bradley’s selling point has long been his outstanding glovework in center field, and that remains a strong suit, even if he’s not quite the defender he was at his peak. While DRS and UZR each considered him to be an average center fielder this season, Statcast was still enamored of his work, crediting him with six outs above average. That’s a far cry from the 15 and 12 outs above average Bradley was worth in 2017 and 2018, respectively, but he still remains an asset in the grass.

While Bradley’s absolutely still a major league caliber player, that estimated $11MM price tag is not insignificant for an organization looking to shed payroll. Indeed, Smith notes it’s likely the Red Sox would shop Bradley if they do follow through with an arbitration offer. The upcoming free agent market for center fielders is woeful, but Bradley would likely take a backseat in trade talks to Starling Marté, whom the Pirates should market this winter. Marté, while two years older than Bradley, has been the more productive of the two each of the past two seasons and comes with one additional year of team control.

Entirely speculatively, the Cubs, White Sox, Rangers and Phillies, among others, stand out as teams looking to contend in 2020 who have uncertainty in center field. Bradley’s price tag and lackluster offensive production mean he won’t return a huge prospect haul if Boston were to pull the trigger on a trade, so any team in baseball could put together an adequate package. With the Red Sox still on the lookout for a permanent voice atop the baseball ops department, it’s impossible to handicap at this point the odds of Bradley going elsewhere, much less pinpointing an exact destination. Nevertheless, it’s at least notable to hear that, as of now, the organization doesn’t seem inclined to let their longtime center fielder depart for nothing more than cash savings.

Nationals Notes: Hudson, Anibal

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The Nationals achieved a 2-0 series lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS on Saturday, with the last out of their 3-1 victory being recorded by pitcher Daniel Hudson. It also marked the culmination of a whirlwind week for the righty Hudson, who caught a fair amount of flack for missing the team’s Game 1 matchup–despite the fact that his absence was a result of the birth of his third daughter.  The modest firestorm surrounding Hudson’s prioritization of family values was, perhaps as much as anything, a reflection of how quickly social media can convert molehills into mountains in this day and age.

Hudson, at least, isn’t losing perspective on the situation, as he demonstrated to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic (link). “I went from not having a job on March 21st to this huge national conversation on family values going into the playoffs,” Hudson explained to Ghiroli. “Life comes at you fast. Man, I don’t know how that happened and how I became the face for whatever conversation was going on.” Although it’s tempting for many to view ballplayers as mercenaries singularly focused on winning games, Hudson’s comments provide a reminder that the men of Major League Baseball are, first and foremost, men–with all of the same personal issues and considerations that the rest of us workaday humans also experience. We at MLBTR, for one, extend sincere congratulations to Hudson’s family on the birth of their new baby girl Millie. After settling for a $1.5MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last year, Hudson will hit the open market this offseason after pitching to a 2.47 ERA across 73 innings in 2019; it stands to reason that he should be able to secure a new guarantee that will leave plenty left over for diaper money.

More from the buzzing environment surrounding D.C.’s team…

  • In another Ghiroli piece, the unique career of Anibal Sanchez is appreciated in the afterglow of his dominant Game 1 NLCS showing (link). As Ghiroli points out, Sanchez has operated in familiar territory in 2019–as the often-overlooked “fourth starter” operating behind a trio of fearsome frontline aces. During his time in Detroit, Sanchez was something of an afterthought in the shadow of three guys named Verlander, Price, and Scherzer, and he’s taken a similar position in D.C. as the elder statesman of a staff featuring Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Max Scherzer (again). If Sanchez was feeling bashful about not receiving shine in the leadup to this postseason, he didn’t show it on Friday: in a rousing performance that saw him deploy pitches anywhere from 66 to 93 mph, Sanchez became the first pitcher in LCS history to throw at least 7 2/3 innings and not allow more than one walk and a hit. Interestingly, Ghiroli notes that the pitcher nearly retired in the winter of 2018, even going so far as to tell his agent that he would hang up his spikes if he didn’t receive a contract offer by his birthday on Feb 27–the Twins eventually came calling with just a few days to spare, and the Nationals of 2019 are thankful that the rest might end up being postseason history.

 

The Ian Desmond Problem

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After a 2019 season that saw things go entirely sideways in Denver, changes figure to be afoot for the Rockies this offseason. Despite returning most of a roster that managed a postseason berth in 2018, Bud Black’s club whimpered to a 71-91 record this past season and likely would have ended up in the NL West cellar had it not been for a circumspective second-half collapse on the part of the rival Padres.

Nick Groke of The Athletic, for one, is already musing on potential changes that GM Jeff Bridich could make in an effort to get the club back in contention for 2020 (link). Specifically, Groke points out several players who could be on the “hot seat” this winter, given the club’s current 40-man roster squeeze. Five players currently on the club’s 60-day injured list–Brendan Rodgers, Scott Oberg, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis–will need to be moved off the IL this offseason, necessitating at least five impending roster decisions for Bridich. Groke identifies pitcher Jeff Hoffman as the man that should fall firmly into his club’s roster trimming crosshairs, as his age (26) and near-complete lack of production (6.11 ERA in 209.1 career innings) render his former top-50 prospect status little more than a wistful memory. Groke names ten other players as possible roster casualties, although Bridich signee Ian Desmond–who has produced a cumulative -1.7 fWAR in three Colorado seasons after agreeing to a 5-year/$70MM deal in 2016–is conspicuously absent from his list.

Desmond has two years and $25MM in guarantees remaining on his deal (the pact includes a $15MM option for 2022 which is attached to a $2MM buyout), but it may be time to wonder if the club should swallow bravely and push the ’eject’ button on the ill-fated Desmond deal. While it would be enticing to believe that the former shortstop could be on the brink of a turnaround, there would be little hard evidence to support such a case: his .304 BABIP in three Colorado seasons is only marginally below his .321 career marker, and his 2019 XWOBA of .309 was right in line with his WOBA of .317; moreover, Desmond is 34 years old, and his troubles at the plate are really only the beginning of his performance problems.

When Desmond came to the Rockies in 2017, he was a distinct shortstop/centerfielder hybrid who, despite something of an inconsistent offensive track record, offered somewhat stable value on the bases and in the field. As you might expect for a player reaching his mid-thirties, much of that athletically dependent ability has appeared to abandon Desmond. 2019 marked the first time since 2012 that the native Floridian recorded a negative baserunning metric (-1.7 BSR), while his work in the Rockies outfield was generally a horrorshow. A move back to centerfield produced a -19 DRS mark in 2019 for Desmond, with UZR also generally thumbing its nose at his up-the-middle efforts (-7.2 UZR in 2019 at CF).

Admittedly, metrics indicated a roughly average performance for Desmond in 300-plus innings in left field, but can the club continue to justify running out an average-fielding corner outfielder with negative basepath value and a bat that has been markedly below-average in his three years in Colorado? After all, Desmond’s combined 80 wRC+ during his three years in purple and black is, in itself, indicative of a player who probably should not be long for a major league roster. Add in the other limitations to Desmond’s current game, and the patina of “veteran leadership” falls short of explaining his prospective inclusion on Colorado’s 2020 roster.

It is exceedingly rare to see club’s simply cut bait on $25MM in financial commitment. Still, when winning takes precedent, there is a recent parallel for weighting on-field results over balance sheet concerns. The Red Sox–though operating in an entirely different financial habitat than the Rockies–have continued to pay handsomely for the services of outfielder Rusney Castillo; all they’ve asked of Castillo in return is that he kindly provide those services to the Red Sox of Pawtucket, rather than Boston. Point being: when a pennant-seeking organization recognizes a player can’t play up to his contract, they do whatever it takes to sidestep a sunk cost fallacy. If the Rockies plan on contending in the next two seasons, they might be well served to begin their offseason roster trimming with a rather painful decision, rather than paring away mid-20’s players who may yet have their best baseball ahead of them.

Mets Plan To Interview Carlos Beltran, Joe Girardi, Mike Bell

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Oct. 12: The Mets will interview Bell on Monday, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (link).

Oct. 10: The Mets will interview Girardi next week, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.

Oct. 9: The Mets plan to hold in-person interviews with recently retired outfielder Carlos Beltran and Diamondbacks vice president of player development Mike Bell in their search for a new manager, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the Mets are conducting phone interviews with some candidates before committing to face-to-face sitdowns (Twitter link), adding that former Yankees skipper Joe Girardi is “sure” to be interviewed in person. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Bell’s interview is likely to take place next week. Other candidates are sure to emerge in the coming weeks.

Beltran, 42, is currently serving as a special advisor to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, though he’s long been touted as a potential manager. The likely Hall of Famer reportedly interviewed with the Yankees prior to their hiring of Aaron Boone. He’s also said to have declined the opportunity to interview with the Padres this offseason, and it stands to reason that other clubs will have interest in sitting down with him.

Bell, 44, is the younger brother of Reds skipper David Bell. He’s currently in the same position with the Diamondbacks that his older brother was with the Giants prior to being hired away by the Cincinnati organization last winter. Bell interviewed with both the Rangers and the Orioles last offseason, and Rosenthal notes that the Pirates also have some interest in Bell. The 2019 season was Bell’s third in that role, but he’s previously served as the team’s director of player development in addition to three years as a minor league manager. In all, he’s been with the D-backs as a minor league skipper or a front office executive for 13 years.

The 54-year-old Girardi, of course, is no stranger to New Yorkers. He spent a decade at the helm with the Yankees and was the manager in the Bronx for the Yankees’ most recent World Series title back in 2009. He’s been clear about his desire to manage again recently and was set for an interview with the Cubs today. He’ll draw his share of interest from other clubs over the coming weeks and seems like a strong candidate to land back in a Major League dugout sooner rather than later. Since parting ways with the Yankees, he’s served as a television analyst on MLB Network.

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