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Comparing Gerrit Cole To The $200MM Pitchers

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Astros right-hander and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole just mowed down the Rays for the second time in the teams’ LDS matchup. Thanks in large part to the sheer brilliance he displayed in the second and fifth games of the series, the Astros have moved on in the postseason and are one step from advancing to the World Series. No matter how the year ends for the Astros, though, Cole’s in for a prosperous few months as arguably the preeminent soon-to-be free agent in baseball.

Cole, who just turned 29 a month ago, looks likely to head into the winter with a realistic chance at securing a $200MM-plus contract. As noted earlier this week, just four other hurlers (David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke) have reached that milestone to this point. But how does Cole compare to each member of that group when they signed their deals? Let’s stack up Cole against the younger versions of those starters in several key categories…

  • Age when their contracts took effect: Price: 30; Kershaw: 26; Scherzer: 31; Greinke: 32
  • Career average fastball velocity – Cole: 96.1 mph; Price: 94.2; Kershaw 93.2; Scherzer: 93.4; Greinke: 92.3
  • Career ERA/FIP – Cole: 3.22/3.06; Price: 3.10/3.19; Kershaw: 2.61/2.88; Scherzer: 3.60/3.38; Greinke: 3.34/3.32
  • Career strikeout percentage – Cole: 27.6; Price: 23.4; Kershaw: 25.4; Scherzer: 25.7; Greinke: 21.6
  • Career walk percentage – Cole: 6.5; Price: 6.4; Kershaw: 8.3; Scherzer: 7.5; Greinke: 6.0
  • Career groundball percentage – Cole: 44.7; Price: 44.3; Kershaw: 43.9; Scherzer: 38.7; Greinke: 43.8
  • Career hard-contact percentage – Cole: 30.1; Price: 26.7; Kershaw: 24.4; Scherzer: 28.3; Greinke: 27.9

While the above numbers don’t tell the entire story, it’s inarguable that they carry significant importance when evaluating the usefulness of a pitcher. And there’s no doubt they make it clear that Cole’s career has compared quite favorably to all members of the $200MM class when they received their exorbitant paydays.

Adding to Cole’s appeal, he’ll journey to free agency as hands down the No. 1 starter on the market – someone who’s fresh off back-to-back dominant seasons, a third straight 200-inning campaign and perhaps a heroic playoff run. With all of those factors in mind, it would be perfectly reasonable for Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, to try to secure a contract in a record range for his client. Price ($217MM over seven years), Kershaw (7/$215MM), Scherzer (7/$210MM) and Greinke (6/$206.5MM) continue to lead the way for now, but they may have company soon.

Dave Roberts To Return As Dodgers’ Manager In 2020

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After losing to the Nationals in Game Five of the NLDS last night, the Dodgers will be missing the World Series for the first time since 2016.  The heartbreaking nature of Wednesday’s defeat has already led to some speculation among fans and pundits that a change could (or should) be coming to the Dodgers’ dugout, though none seems to be on the way.  Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports that Dave Roberts will indeed return as the team’s manager in 2020, “according to two people with knowledge of the situation.”

Roberts has an outstanding 393-256 record over four seasons as the Dodgers’ skipper, a resume that includes two National League pennants, four consecutive NL West titles, and a 106-56 regular season mark in 2019 that ranks as the winningest season in the Dodgers’ 136-year history.  Despite all of this success, however, a World Series championship has remained elusive.  L.A. dropped the 2017 Series to the Astros in seven games and then absorbed a five-game loss to the Red Sox in 2018, before making an unexpectedly early exit in this year’s postseason.

There were also whispers about Roberts’ future employment after last year’s Series loss, though the Dodgers exercised their option on his services for 2019 and ultimately signed him to a three-year extension that runs through the 2022 season.  While Dodgers ownership certainly has the resources to eat the money owed on three years of a manager’s contract if a change was deemed necessary, that recent long-term commitment made it seem pretty unlikely that Roberts would be fired, despite the controversy over the last 24 hours.

Of course, nothing short of a World Series will ultimately satisfy Los Angeles fans, especially since the most common complaint directed at Roberts (his late-game bullpen management) perhaps reached its apex in Game Five against Washington.  Dodgers supporters will forever bemoan the decisions to bring Clayton Kershaw out of the bullpen, and then to leave Joe Kelly on the mound for a second inning of work — just as they’ll always wonder why Roberts removed a dominant Rich Hill after 6 1/3 frames during Game Four of the 2018 Series.  Roberts’ heavy focus on platoon switches and lefty-righty matchups have also received criticism, though this would seem like a more specific organizational focus rather than something Roberts is personally responsible for (and, this same flexible roster depth is a major reason the Dodgers have won so many games in the first place).

There are already eight teams looking to hire new managers this offseason, and while there is some debate over which of those jobs is the most attractive, one would imagine the Dodgers’ opening would have immediately zoomed to the top of the list if Roberts had indeed been replaced.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, as part of a subscription-only piece wondering about Roberts’ future with the Dodgers, also made the point that Roberts would surely be a sought-after candidate for one of those eight other open jobs, given his track record and ties to other executives on those manager-needy franchises.

Rich Hill Hopes To Re-Sign With Dodgers

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The Dodgers’ season came to a bitterly disappointing conclusion Wednesday, but left-hander Rich Hill hopes it wasn’t the last time he dons their uniform. The pending free agent said after the club’s NLDS-ending loss to the Nationals that he wants to remain a Dodger in 2020, Andy McCullough of The Athletic tweets.

Hill’s weeks away from another trip to the open market, where he cashed in with the Dodgers entering the 2017 campaign. The late-career breakout hurler, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Athletics the previous summer, re-signed with Los Angeles on a three-year, $48MM contract. When Hill was healthy enough to take the mound, he lived up to that payday, evidenced by a 3.30 ERA/3.89 FIP with 10.68 K/9 against 2.97 BB/9. The problem is that injuries have consistently haunted Hill, who tossed just 327 regular-season innings over the life of his deal. He only amassed 58 2/3 in 2019, during which he totaled a mere 8 1/3 (including 2 2/3 in the playoffs) from June 20 onward.

Not only has a lack of durability hampered Hill, but as someone who’s set to turn 40 in March, he’s going into free agency as one of the oldest players available. However, even though free agency has been unkind to many aging players in the past couple offseasons, it shouldn’t preclude Hill from securing another guaranteed contract. After all, he’s still a bear to deal with for opposing offenses when he takes the mound, as he showed this year with a 2.45 ERA/4.10 FIP, 11.05 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 and a 49.6 percent groundball rate.

While Hill’s plenty useful even in an injury-limited capacity, it’s unknown how serious the Dodgers will consider keeping him around. Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are sure to remain part of their rotation in 2020, while Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Dustin May, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin also represent in-house options who could factor into the mix. And with the offseason ahead, the Dodgers may pick up an outsider(s) in lieu of bringing back Hill and/or fellow soon-to-be free agent Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Indians Release Dioner Navarro

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The Indians have released catcher Dioner Navarro, Baseball America’s Kegan Lowe reports.  Navarro signed a minor league deal with the Tribe last winter, and hit .211/.339/.274 over 115 plate appearances (in 29 games) for Triple-A Columbus.

It marked a return to affiliated baseball for Navarro, who sat out the 2017 season entirely due to family health reasons and whose 2018 action was limited to 20 games with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League and 22 games in the Venezuelan Winter League.  He’ll turn 36 in February, and seems to be in line for another minors contract this offseason in another veteran depth role.

Navarro hit .250/.309/.370 over 3351 Major League plate appearances for seven different teams from 2004-16.  The bulk (458) of his 1009 games came with the Rays, a stint that included an All-Star Game selection in 2008, though Navarro also saw regular or semi-regular duty as a member of the Dodgers, Cubs, and Blue Jays.

MLBTR Poll: Most Desirable Managerial Opening?

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The Phillies fired Gabe Kapler on Thursday, leaving them as one of eight major league teams searching for a manager at the moment. Fellow National League clubs in the Padres, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Cubs are in the same position, while the Royals and Angels are seeking new skippers in the AL. The question is: Which team has the most desirable job?

For starters, we can probably rule out the Pirates and Royals. Both teams have been hamstrung by low payrolls, with notoriously penny-pinching ownership holding back Pittsburgh and Kansas City (a team whose ownership is in transition) coming off its second 100-loss season in a row. Neither team looks as if it’ll contend in the immediate future, and the same may apply to the Giants, though they are a club with big-spending capabilities and promising president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi at the helm. On the other hand, the rest of the league’s manager-needy organizations look to have decent odds of pushing for relevance sooner than later.

The Phillies just wrapped up their eighth consecutive non-playoff season, but with 81 wins, they weren’t exactly a basement dweller. Kapler’s successor will be taking over a team with big-time talent on hand (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola, to name a few) and the spending power to amply address its most obvious weaknesses this offseason.

Like the Phillies, the Padres have been suffering for too long. They’re fresh off their 13th straight year without a playoff berth, but they’re another team with front-line talent (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Chris Paddack). Moreover, the Padres remain loaded on the farm, and owner Ron Fowler has made it clear it’s time to start winning in 2020.

The Mets also have no shortage of top-line players, including ace Jacob deGrom and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. However, their managerial position is probably the most pressure-packed of all the openings. Previous skipper Mickey Callaway oversaw an 86-win team in 2019, but he dealt with scrutiny from the media, fans and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen from start to finish.

There’s also high expectations in Chicago, where even an exemplary record over five years wasn’t enough to keep Joe Maddon employed. The Cubs and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein gave Maddon the boot even though he helped them break a 108-year World Series drought in 2016 and led them to an overall 471-339 regular-season record with four playoff berths during his reign. But the Cubs, another financially well-off club with enviable high-end talent (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Hendricks, for example), saw enough of Maddon after a late-season collapse and a non-playoff showing in 2019. Maddon’s replacement will be inheriting an 84-win team that will have playoff expectations for next year.

The Angels, who seem like the favorites to land Maddon next, are another franchise with a sense of urgency to win in 2020. Despite the presence of the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, they haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2014. The Halos haven’t even won a playoff game since October 2009, just a few months after drafting Trout.  With fourth-year general manager Billy Eppler set to enter the last season of his contract in 2020, it’s imperative for him to get this hire right (his previous selection of Brad Ausmus didn’t work out). Otherwise, he and the Angels’ next manager could be out a year from now.

That’s a basic overview of where the sport’s manager-less teams stand heading into the offseason. There are more factors you could consider, of course. Which job looks the most appealing to you?

(Poll link for app users)

Athletics’ Sean Murphy Undergoes Knee Surgery

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Athletics catcher Sean Murphy underwent a lateral meniscal debridement procedure on his left knee today, as per a team announcement.  The surgery addresses the meniscus problems that plagued Murphy this season (leading to a pair of stints on the Triple-A injured list), and the young backstop “is expected to be ready for Spring Training.”

Knee surgery isn’t exactly the best way to celebrate a birthday, as Murphy turns 25 years old today.  But, given how the youngster performed in his first taste of MLB action even while not at 100 percent, a clean bill of health makes Murphy seem like an even more intriguing prospect going forward, and a strong candidate to assume the everyday catching duties for the Athletics for next season.

Murphy hit .245/.333/.566 with four home runs over his first 60 Major League plate appearances, all but one of which took place in September.  With the A’s battling for a wild card berth, Murphy’s performance earned him an increasingly larger share of the playing time alongside veteran catcher Josh Phegley, and Murphy ended up getting the start in Oakland’s wild card game loss to the Rays.

After three impressive years at Wright State, Murphy was a third-round pick for the A’s in the 2016 draft and continued to impress as he worked his way up the minor league ladder.  Murphy hit .267/.341/.456 over 966 career PA in the minors, showing up strong offensive potential to go along with his highly-touted defensive skills.  Fangraphs ranks Murphy as the 29th-best prospect in baseball, with MLB.com (43rd) and Baseball America (52nd) also issuing strong placements on their top-100 prospects lists.

Giants Sign Drew Robinson To Minors Contract

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The Giants have signed utilityman Drew Robinson to a minor league deal, as per Baseball America’s Kegan Lowe.  Robinson became a free agent after being released by the Cardinals in August.

Robinson appeared in only five MLB games for the Cards in 2019, a sharp dropoff after playing in 95 games (246 PA) as a bench player for the Rangers in 2017-18.  Originally a fourth-round pick for the Rangers in the 2010 draft, Robinson has a .202/.296/.369 slash line over his 253 career Major League plate appearances, but has hit a much more respectable .252/.362/.438 over 3686 PA at the minor league level.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi made a habit of picking up depth pieces in his first full year running San Francisco’s front office, and Robinson becomes the latest to get a look from the team.  The 27-year-old brings a lot of defensive versatility, as he started multiple games at six different positions (second base, third base, left field, right field, shortstop, and primarily center field) in 2019, and also has experience as a first baseman.

AL Central Notes: Colome, Ramirez, Twins

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In the wake of the Nationals’ dramatic NLDS victory over the Dodgers last night, it is perhaps fitting that October 10 marks another red-letter day in Washington baseball history….not to mention Minnesota baseball history.  It was on this day back in 1924 that the Twins won their first World Series, though they were still several decades away from becoming the Twins, as the franchise played in D.C. as the Washington Senators from 1901-1960.  The Senators beat the New York Giants in a dramatic Game Seven that lasted 12 innings, with the legendary Walter Johnson earning the win after tossing four shutout innings in relief.  1924 marked the franchise’s only Series title in Washington, as the Senators/Twins wouldn’t again win it all until 1987.

Some items from around the AL Central…

  • Though Alex Colome is projected to earn $10.3MM in salary next year, the Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) doesn’t think the high arbitration price tag will prevent the White Sox from bringing the closer back in 2020.  GM Rick Hahn indicated after the season that the performances of Colome and Aaron Bummer as Chicago’s late-game duo “makes you feel real good about their spot going forward,” and Fegan notes that the Sox likely wouldn’t have acquired Colome from the Mariners last winter if they were worried about paying him in 2020, given how save totals predictably lead to big raises for closers in the arbitration process.  Both advanced metrics (.215 BABIP, and a 2.64 wOBA that was far below his .324 xwOBA) and ERA predictors (4.08 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, 4.38 SIERA) indicated that Colome was rather fortunate to post his 2.80 ERA over 61 innings last season, so a non-tender or a trade is perhaps feasible if the White Sox felt a bigger course correction was on the way next year.
  • Jose Ramirez is open to playing either second base or third base next season, though he has told Indians management that he doesn’t want to shift between the two positions, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  Ramirez played exclusively at third base in 2019 and spent most of his time at the hot corner in 2018, though he moved over to second base late in the year to accommodate the Tribe’s acquisition of Josh Donaldson.  Ramirez also more or less split time between third (736 2/3 innings) and second (577 1/3 innings) in 2017 due to an injury to regular second baseman Jason Kipnis.  Over the last three seasons in question, Ramirez has been an above-average defender at third base as per the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, while UZR/150 has been a bit less impressed with his work as a second baseman, though the 27-year-old is still overall pretty solid at the keystone.  “I think we’re comfortable that Jose can play both at a premium defensive quality,” manager Terry Francona said.  “I agree with him, going back and forth is hard, especially at this point in his career.”  Ramirez’s ability to handle either infield role gives Cleveland some flexibility in pursuing infield help this winter, assuming the team doesn’t rely on some combination of Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, or Andrew Velazquez to handle the other position in 2020.
  • The Twins are already planning to chase some front-of-the-rotation pitchers this offseason, and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune opines that outfielder Eddie Rosario could be “the logical trading chip” to try and land an arm.  Rosario hit .276/.300/.500 with 32 homers over 590 PA for Minnesota last season, and he has 83 total home runs over the last three seasons.  After posting a decent .326 OBP in 2017-18, however, Rosario had much more difficult getting on base this past year, and he also didn’t have a good defensive year as a left fielder (though he did fare much better defensively in 2018).  Trading Rosario would result in a projected starting outfield of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Marwin Gonzalez, with top prospects Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach all potentially available as late-season call-ups.  More veteran outfield depth could also be added at a lower price than Rosario, who is projected to earn a hefty arbitration raise to $8.9MM, up significantly from his $4.19MM salary in 2019.

Twins Discussing Extension With Derek Falvey

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The Twins and Derek Falvey “could soon complete a new deal” to retain the executive VP/chief baseball officer beyond the end of his current contract, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports.  The specific terms of Falvey’s original deal weren’t released when he was hired by Minnesota after the 2016 season, though it was believed that he was signed through at least 2020.

Still only 36 years old, Falvey has enjoyed quite a bit of success since taking over the Twins’ baseball operations department.  Brought in to provide fresh perspective within an organization that had perhaps become too insular and old-fashioned, Falvey and GM Thad Levine have managed to both modernize the Twins’ front office while also leading the club to the playoffs twice in three seasons.  Minnesota won a wild card slot in 2017 and then captured the AL Central this year with 101 victories, the second-highest win total in the 119-year history of the Twins/Washington Senators franchise.  The only downside is an 0-4 record in the postseason, losing all four games to the Yankees (who have dominated the Twins for the better part of two decades).

Perhaps most importantly, Minnesota is well-positioned to remain in contention going forward.  Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were signed to long-term extensions in the spring, and Falvey and Levine focused on acquiring only short-term assets last winter, several of whom (most notably Nelson Cruz) ended up being big contributors to Minnesota’s division title.  This leaves the Twins in position to spend more significantly this offseason, and Falvey said yesterday that “impact pitching” will be targeted to help a rotation that could be thinned out in free agency.

It isn’t surprising that the Twins would look to keep Falvey in the fold given his already-strong track record with the team, though Olney notes that the timing could also be related to the Red Sox, who currently the only team looking to fill a general manager vacancy.  Falvey is from Massachusetts, though as of last month, was reportedly “very happy” in Minnesota and seemingly not looking to take on another position elsewhere.

If a new contract for Falvey could be coming soon, it stands to reason that Levine might also be in line for an extension in short order.  Levine has been on the radar for other teams looking to make front office hires, though he turned down a request from the Mets to interview for their open GM position last year.

C.J. Cron Having Thumb Injury Reevaluated

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Twins first baseman C.J. Cron played through a thumb injury for much of the season’s second half, twice landing on the injured list, and he’ll now seek an outside opinion on the matter, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey revealed to reporters (link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). “There could be a potential for a procedure to help alleviate some of the stuff he’s been dealing with,” Falvey said.

Cron, 30 in January, posted a solid .266/.326/.495 slash with 17 homers through 77 games prior to the All-Star break. That production cratered as his thumb troubles cropped up, however; he hit just .229/.280/.420 in the second half as his walk rate nearly halved (from 6.9 percent to 3.6 percent) and his strikeout rate spiked (from 19.3 percent to 25.6 percent). In all, Cron’s first season with the Twins resulted in a .253/.311/.469 slash with 25 home runs. That was only a hair better than league-average production by measure of both wRC+ (101) and OPS+ (103) in 2019’s heightened offensive environment.

Cron’s health will be of particular interest given that he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive a raise from this year’s $4.8MM salary up to $7.7MM in 2020. That’s a relatively steep price to pay a first baseman coming off league-average offensive output, although perhaps the Twins are confident that better health would’ve kept Cron productive and led to a second consecutive 30-homer season.

Still, the Rays cut Cron loose and ran him through outright waivers a year ago, when he had multiple seasons of club control remaining and was fresh off a .253/.323/.493 season (123 wRC+ and OPS+). Minnesota was 12th in waiver priority when Cron was claimed, meaning more than a third of the league was uninterested in picking up two years of control over him at a time when his projected arbitration salary was $5.2MM. If Cron was a borderline call for clubs at that point, that’s all the more true now with just one year of control remaining, another raise in the offing, a barking thumb and a year of diminished offense. Perhaps the two sides will cut some kind of deal at a lower price prior to the tender deadline, but Cron seems like a potential non-tender candidate this winter.

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