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Rays Have Looked Into Availability Of Hunter Pence

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The Rays have checked in with the Rangers about the availability of outfielder/DH Hunter Pence, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The possibility of a match was first noted by MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette.

It’s not known how serious the talks are, but it does seem reasonable at this point to presume that Pence can be had. The Rangers had dabbled with pursuit of a postseason spot, but a slide has left the club staring up at an all-but-insurmountable 6.5-game gap from the second Wild Card spot. Given the circumstances, the Texas club is likely to dangle its pending free agents — if not a few other assets.

On the Rays’ side, the organization has seen its own postseason position erode steadily over the course of the season. It’s hard to imagine them catching the division-leading Yankees. It’ll take a big effort even to win a Wild Card spot. The two positions are held presently by the Indians and Athletics, with the Rays one game back and the Red Sox also posing a serious threat.

While the Tampa Bay team is obviously going to attempt to improve, it doesn’t have sufficient incentive to truly go for broke. That makes it hard to imagine the Rays giving up too much future value for rental assets. In the case of Pence, however, the acquisition cost will likely be rather manageable.

Pence has had a heck of a bounceback season at 36 years of age. He’s through 232 plate appearances of .290/.349/.581 hitting with 15 home runs. Statcast credits the veteran with a strong 43.1% hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph average exit velo, along with a 10.5 degree launch angle that’s about double his numbers in recent seasons. Pence has outperformed his contact quality, but not by a huge amount (.387 wOBA vs. .365 xwOBA).

That said, it’s still worth wondering whether Pence will be able to sustain this kind of outburst. And he hasn’t been trusted with many innings in the outfield after several seasons of somewhat poorly reviewed glovework. His contract is quite affordable — $2MM with $1.25MM in incentives — but there probably isn’t an abundance of demand. Unless National League teams see Pence as an option to slide back out to the field rather than functioning mostly as a DH, as he has in Texas, the primary pursuers would seem to come from the American League ranks. Yet most of the AL contenders have accounted for their bat-only plate appearances.

The fit with the Rays isn’t flawless, either, but it’s possible to imagine how Pence would fit on the roster. In terms of existing DH possibilities, the club has a rotating cast of possibilities on the right side but no clear bat-only piece. In terms of left-handed hitters, Ji-Man Choi has been increasingly crowded out by Nate Lowe at first base. Choi is a strong option when facing right-handed pitching but has struggled mightily in limited opportunities against southpaws. Pence, who has long maintained limited platoon splits and thrived both with and without the platoon advantage this year, could share time with Choi or replace him entirely as a primary DH.

Phillies Have Discussed Boyd, Greene With Tigers

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The Phillies have had recent trade talks with the Tigers, and general manager Matt Klentak will be travel to Detroit to get an in-person look at the Tigers’ trade candidates, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Of particular interest to the Phils are lefty Matthew Boyd and closer Shane Greene, although Salisbury suggests that the two teams have at least discussed outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and left-handed starter Daniel Norris.

Both the pitching staff and the bullpen are logical areas of focus for the Phillies, who recently demoted Nick Pivetta to the bullpen in favor of a dice roll on Drew Smyly (whose first start as a Phillie was excellent). Aaron Nola scuffled through a sluggish stretch earlier in the season, while Jake Arrieta is pitching through a bone spur that’ll eventually require elbow surgery. Righty Zach Eflin has been a solid mid-rotation piece, but Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and rookie Cole Irvin have all struggled in their starts.

The bullpen has been an entirely different brand of problematic. David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano have all missed significant time due to injury in 2019, which has frequently left the Phillies to rely on questionable arms. Of late, closer Hector Neris has become extraordinarily homer prone after what had been a strong two-month run that saw him yield one homer in 22 1/3 innings.

The Phillies are only a half-game back of the Nationals for the second NL Wild Card spot and, at 7.5 games behind the Braves, are technically still within plausible reach of a push for the division — although unseating Atlanta for the division crown is admittedly a long shot. Because of those long odds, though, it’s perhaps more natural to see the Phils paying particular interest to players who can be controlled beyond 2019. Dealing significant prospects for a rental when the most likely playoff scenario involves a one-game playoff is a tough sell for any front office.

Philadelphia has about $110MM committed to next season’s payroll — about $51MM less than the team is currently carrying. They’ve also seen their opening day payroll climb as high as $177MM back in 2014. With that level of financial breathing room — Nehsek, Hunter and Juan Nicasio will all be free agents; Maikel Franco could be non-tendered — the Phillies will be able to be aggressive in reloading for another run in 2020 regardless of this season’s outcome. Adding some salary right now in proactive moves to bolster this year’s Wild Card push and next year’s division chase is only logical.

Whether that proves to be some combination of Detroit’s controllable arms, at this point, is an unknown even to the Tigers and Phillies themselves. Team president Andy MacPhail recently expressed reluctance to deal from the very top tier of the farm (e.g. Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard), and the asking price on Boyd alone is known to be enormous. Reports have ranged from seeking a young, established “star”-caliber player to a Jose Quintana-esque haul. (The Cubs sent the White Sox a four-player package headlined by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease.) Salisbury suggests something similar to the latter in referencing a four-player package with two potential stars — and that’s just for Boyd.

If the Phils are to look elsewhere, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale again connects the team to Arizona ace Zack Greinke as well as D-backs left-hander Robbie Ray (Twitter link). It’s not at all clear whether the Diamondbacks will move either player, but the Phils have previously been linked to Greinke, in particular. The aforementioned payroll capacity would surely come into play in any talks involving the righty. Greinke is still owed $75MM+ in base salaries between now and 2021, plus a yearly $3MM payout on his annualized signing bonus. Beyond that, a substantial portion of his yearly salary is deferred. He’ll be paid $12.5MM annually from 2022-26.

The Phillies could certainly help alleviate some of that fiscal burden for the Diamondbacks, but Greinke is also enjoying a strong season and wouldn’t be traded away for pure salary relief. The two sides would, in all likelihood, need to agree on some combination of financial aid and still-appealing prospects. That’s a tall order under any circumstances but is especially cumbersome with a nine-day clock on negotiations at a time when the D-backs, with a 50-50 record, aren’t even decided deadline sellers. As if all of that isn’t a sizable enough roadblock, the Phillies are also on Greinke’s limited no-trade list.

Tigers, Edwin Jackson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran righty Edwin Jackson, as was first indicated on the league transactions log at MLB.com. Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets that Jackson is joining the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Toledo.

It’ll be Jackson’s second tour of duty with the Tigers, as he spent the 2009 campaign in Detroit as well. That year was one of the best of Jackson’s career, as he logged a career-high 214 innings with a 3.62 ERA and the lone All-Star nod of his remarkable big league journey. Jackson was recently cut loose by the Blue Jays — the MLB-record 14th team for which he has pitched.

The 35-year-old Jackson couldn’t get on track in Toronto, limping to a miserable 11.12 ERA in 28 1/3 innings there. He was charged with 35 earned runs on a whopping 49 hits (12 home runs) and 13 walks with 19 strikeouts in that time. That said, “E-Jax” was a vital member of the Athletics’ surprising playoff push just a season ago. His 2018 campaign featured 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball with 6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9.

Jackson still averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball in his time with the Blue Jays — a modest increase over last year’s velocity — so there’s still plenty of life in his arm. He’ll head to Toledo for now, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get a chance at the big league level in the near future. Detroit’a rotation has already lost Michael Fulmer (Tommy John surgery) and Matt Moore (knee surgery) for the season, and it’s not clear when (or if) Tyson Ross will be cleared to resume pitching in 2019. Add the possibility of a Matthew Boyd trade in the next nine days, and the uncertainty in the rotation is palpable. It’s also possible that Jackson could resurface as a bullpen option. There’s perhaps even more uncertainty in the Detroit relief corps, and closer Shane Greene is even likelier than Boyd to be traded before July 31.

Cubs Have Interest In Jarrod Dyson, Eric Sogard

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The Cubs have interest in D-backs outfielder Jarrod Dyson and have been “gathering information” on Blue Jays infielder Eric Sogard, according to Patrick Mooney, Sahadev Sharma and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Yesterday, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported Chicago’s interest in outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, and today’s report from Mooney, Sharma and Rosenthal doubles down on that interest while also acknowledging that Castellanos’ remaining salary could make such a move difficult to piece together.

Chicago hopes to land a veteran hitter with quality contact skills, per The Athletic, and both Dyson and Sogard would fit that bill. Dyson is hitting .254/.335/.369 with six homers and 21 steals on the season. His strikeout rate is sitting at 19 percent, which is elevated quite a bit from the 13.3 percent clip he notched across the past three seasons but is still lower than the league average (22.2 percent among non-pitchers). Sogard, meanwhile, is batting .305/.369/.491 with 10 home runs, six steals and a 14.1 percent strikeout rate (career 13.3 percent).

Adding Dyson, 34, to the fray would give the Cubs an excellent defensive outfielder who can handle all three positions. His presence would surely push struggling Albert Almora Jr. out of the lineup against right-handed opponents. Dyson’s career platoon numbers are pronounced, and his left-handed bat makes him a natural pairing with Almora. The 25-year-old Almora has been uncharacteristically awful against lefties in 2019 but is still a career .286/.335/.420 hitter against them. Dyson owns a lifetime .257/.324/.360 line against right-handers.

Dyson is earning a reasonable $3.5MM in 2019 and is still owed about $1.32MM of that sum between now and season’s end. Contrast that with the $3.75MM remaining on Castellanos’ $9.95MM salary, and he’s not only the better defender of the two but the more affordable. Dyson can’t match Castellanos’ bat, though, and the Diamondbacks aren’t the slam-dunk sellers that the Tigers are known to be. It’s certainly possible that Arizona could deal Dyson and other short-term pieces, but at 50-50 through 100 games, the Snakes likely haven’t determined how they’ll proceed over the next nine days. As a pending free agent, Dyson could be moved even as the D-backs look to simultaneously add longer-term parts who can help in 2020 and beyond.

Sogard, 33, seems a near-lock to be traded so long as there’s sufficient interest. His power surge and general offensive production are largely out of the blue — Sogard was released by the Brewers in 2018 and signed a minor league deal in Toronto this winter — but his strong output has likely positioned as a piece the Jays can flip. As a versatile defender capable of handling second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield corners, Sogard could give the Cubs a sort of Ben Zobrist-lite skill set at a time when the organization still isn’t sure when (or if) Zobrist will return. Sogard’s numbers at second are down this season, but he has a long track record of plus defense there. And after inking a minor league pact in the offseason, he’s assuredly an affordable option for the Cubs or any other interested team.

Twins To Select Cody Stashak

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The Twins will select the contract of right-hander Cody Stashak from Triple-A Rochester prior to tonight’s series opener against the Yankees, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Minnesota has four open spots following a recent spate of DFAs in the bullpen; each of Mike Morin, Matt Magill and Adalberto Mejia have been designated for assignment and landed with a new club in the past week. Stashak will take the 25-man roster spot of righty Zack Littell, who was optioned to Rochester following yesterday’s game.

Stashak, who turned 25 last month, was Minnesota’s 13th-round pick back in 2015 and will make his MLB debut the first time he sets foot on the mound. He didn’t enter the season considered to be among the Twins’ top echelon of prospects even after a strong showing in Double-A last season (2.75 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9). Stashak posted even better K/BB numbers in Double-A this season before moving up to Triple-A, where he’s pitched to a 1.61 ERA with 12.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 and a 38.5 percent ground-ball rate in 22 1/3 innings of work.

The bullpen has been an ongoing problem for Minnesota, particularly in the past few weeks (hence the considerable turnover). While Twins relievers improbably rank 13th in each of ERA (4.36), FIP (4.27) and xFIP (4.41) as a collective unit, their relief corps has struggled to find consistency beyond closer Taylor Rogers and rookie Ryne Harper. The Twins are widely expected to add at least one veteran arm to the mix between now and next week’s trade deadline, but for the time being they’ll once again dip into their farm to provide some depth while waiting for a still-stagnant trade market to develop.

Latest On Max Scherzer

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TODAY:  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that he is “reasonably confident” Scherzer will come off the injured list this week.  As Dougherty notes, this projection carries some extra weight coming from Rizzo, who “is usually resistant to putting even loose timelines on injuries.”

FRIDAY: The Nats’ mid-season revival has been driven by exceptional starting pitching — particularly from the ever-dependable Max Scherzer. His unholy tear through the rest of the league was halted only by an unfortunate back issue that has cropped up, forcing a recent injured-list placement.

Scherzer provided an update today to reporters including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). What had been believed to be a mid-back strain is in fact an inflamed bursa sac in his back/shoulder area (formally, “scapulothoracic bursitis”). He’s throwing off flat ground while waiting for a cortisone shot to take effect.

It’s clear at this point that Scherzer will not pitch before the weekend is out. But he suggests that he ought to be ready to go in relatively short order thereafter. It’ll all depend upon the efficacy and speed of the treatment. Much as the Nats would love to have him back on the bump right away, they’ll need to be cautious of avoiding a larger problem.

It’s more or less impossible to overstate just how good Scherzer has been of late. Since the start of June, he has made seven starts, over which he has allowed just five earned runs on 29 hits in 52 innings. Scherzer has compiled an absurd 79:6 K/BB ratio in that span.

Even if he never threw another pitch in D.C., Scherzer’s blockbuster free agent contract would go down as a huge success. He has already thrown over one thousand innings of 2.65 ERA ball for the Nats, racking up over thirty wins above replacement in less than five full seasons. That he remains an outstanding pitcher with appealing (albeit not inexpensive) remaining guaranteed seasons is testimony to how unusually well that deal has turned out for the team.

As talented and driven as Scherzer is, no small portion of his value is connected to his ability to stay in good health. That has allowed him not only to fill up innings, but to do so at top speed. If the Nats are to chase down the Braves, or otherwise make noise in the postseason by entering through the Wild Card, they’ll need their ace in all his furious glory.

It goes without saying that Scherzer is irreplaceable. But the Nats may need to find another rotation piece over the next twelve days, particularly if there’s any concern that they may need to go a stretch without Scherzer. At present, Austin Voth and Erick Fedde account for the fifth rotation spot. Relying on those hurlers, with scant 40-man depth otherwise (Kyle McGowin, Joe Ross), would be dangerous. There’s no indication that Jeremy Hellickson is going to be an option at any point in the near future.

We already know the Nats will be looking for bullpen arms. But it’ll be interesting to see whether and how they approach the starting pitching market. Perhaps a swingman type would make sense as a partial hedge against a rotation need, without putting too many resources into a spot that may not need to be fully addressed.

Blue Jays Notes: Hudson, Red Sox, Sogard, Pompey

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Daniel Hudson’s strong season is drawing trade attention from the Red Sox and multiple other teams, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The Blue Jays signed Hudson to a one-year, $1.5MM contract over the offseason, and the 32-year-old is on pace to deliver his best season as a relief pitcher, with a 2.72 ERA, 8.8 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 43 innings.  The Red Sox are known to be looking at the high end of the bullpen market, though it isn’t surprising that they would also be seeking out pitchers like Hudson, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much in the way of prospects.

Hudson’s performance comes with some red flags, however, as ERA predictors (4.46 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) hint that Hudson is due for some major regression, and he is allowing a lot of hard contact — 40% of Hudson’s balls in play are hard-hit.  On the plus side, Hudson’s fastball velocity and spin rate both rank in the 89th percentile or better of all qualified pitchers, so a lot of that hard contact is going for naught (or is being converted into relatively harmless fly balls, as his 47.5% fly ball rate is well above his 39.2% career average).

Here’s more out of Toronto….

  • In another tweet from Morosi, Eric Sogard is getting some looks from teams in search of a utilityman, especially clubs turned off by the Royals’ “crazy” asking price on Whit Merrifield.  Sogard is another unheralded offseason signing who has become a big contributor for the Jays, with a .305/.369/.491 slash line (128 wRC+) and 10 homers over 304 plate appearances.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored how Sogard’s unexpected power surge has been something of a mirage, though Sogard’s solid contact skills and defensive versatility make him an asset even if his bat cools off.  He has worked mostly as a second baseman this year, though also with time at third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions.
  • The Blue Jays are facing a decision about Dalton Pompey, Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling writes, as Pompey’s 20-day injury rehab assignment is up on Monday.  Since Pompey is out of options, the Jays have to either call the outfielder up to the majors, or designate him for assignment.  It isn’t out of the question that Pompey could come through DFA limbo without being claimed, Zwelling notes, as other teams might also not want to spend a 25-man roster spot on his services.  Once a consensus top-50 prospect prior to the 2015 season, Pompey has fallen off the radar after several injury-plagued years, including multiple concussions.  He only returned to action in early July after suffering another concussion during Spring Training.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/21/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Kingham to Triple-A after the right-handed cleared waivers, according to a team announcement.  Kingham was acquired from the Pirates in mid-June, and he posted a 3.50 ERA over 18 relief innings for Toronto before being designated for assignment earlier this week.  Formerly a top-100 prospect during his time in Pittsburgh’s farm system, Kingham has only a 6.23 ERA over 128 2/3 career frames at the big league level.

Red Sox Interested In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

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While Nathan Eovaldi has been slated to become Boston’s closer, the Red Sox continue to monitor the closer market, with MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (via Twitter) reporting that the Sox have “active interest” in the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles and the Padres’ Kirby Yates.

The bullpen has been seen as a longstanding problem for the Sox dating back to the offseason, when the team seemed content to let Craig Kimbrel leave in free agency and then more or less stand pat with its relief options.  That strategy has resulted in some pretty inconsistent results from the Red Sox pen this season, with Eovaldi’s recent role change seen as a two birds-with-one stone idea that would both help preserve Eovaldi’s elbow and get him back on a mound quicker, and also address Boston’s need for a stable closer.

Of course, Eovaldi has no experience closing games, so it makes sense that the Sox would at least be checking into options like Yates and Giles to see if another move was possible.  That said, there are a lot of obstacles standing in the way of a trade for either closer.  The Jays have a big asking price on Giles, while the Padres would reportedly only trade Yates for “an overwhelming offer.”  Ergo, acquiring either right-hander would require the Sox to dig deep into an already-thin farm system.

In a pure bidding war for young minor leaguers, it seems unlikely that the Sox would be able to outbid most other interested suitors for either Giles or Yates, and their normal financial might (in terms of taking on money to accommodate trades) is limited by the team’s close proximity to the top luxury tax threshold of $246MM.  Neither Giles or Yates are on particularly big salaries, though every dollar counts considering Roster Resource has Boston’s luxury tax number at just under $244MM.

While high-profile trades between division rivals are usually pretty rare, the Red Sox and Blue Jays combined on a notable deal just last summer, when the Sox acquired future World Series MVP from Toronto.  By contrast, one wonders if the Sox could actually have a tougher time completing a trade with the Padres given the controversy that erupted between the two clubs over the Drew Pomeranz deal in July 2016.  That said, San Diego and Boston have combined on one swap since the Pomeranz trade, the relatively minor deal last November that saw Colten Brewer go to the Sox.

If nothing else, Boston’s interest in Giles and Yates indicates that the team still sees itself as a contender and a buyer at the trade deadline.  At this point, however, it seems like the Sox are vying only for a wild card spot, as Boston sits 11 games behind the Yankees in the AL East race.  The Red Sox are three games behind Oakland for the final AL wild card berth, and with a tough road to travel just to get to a one-game playoff, there has been some suggestion (from both the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that the Sox should consider trading some veterans to unload salary and restock on young talent for another run in 2020.

Boston’s next 14 games are all against either the Yankees or the Rays, with eight of those games coming before the July 31 trade deadline.  Both Abraham and Cotillo cite this upcoming stretch as the potential turning point of the Red Sox season, with Abraham describing the team’s July 29 off-day as “the organization’s deadline to decide whether this season is worth trying to save.”

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