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Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio

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If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…

Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13

  • Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33

  • A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.

Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14

  • Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84

  • It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.

Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72

  • Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.

Mets Place Zack Wheeler On Injured List

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July 16: Wheeler has been formally placed on the IL, the Mets announced. An MRI did not reveal any structural damage, Healey reports, but it’s still uncertain how long Wheeler will be out. Healey tweets that Wheeler declined to put a timetable on his expected return.

July 15: The Mets will place right-hander and top trade candidate Zack Wheeler on the injured list today due to shoulder fatigue, reports Newsday’s Tim Healey (Twitter link). Lefty Steven Matz will start in place of Wheeler tomorrow.

It’s still not known precisely how Wheeler’s trade status and value will be impacted. Even if the move is backdated the maximum three days, Wheeler still won’t be able to return until July 23rd. As Healey points out, that’ll give him a maximum of two starts before the trade deadline even in a best-case scenario.

If all goes well, the Mets could still get a haul for their top rental piece. If Wheeler doesn’t bounce back rapidly, or shows anything worrying once he is back on the hill, then all bets are off.

All things considered, the timing couldn’t be much worse for the Mets. The club has endured a miserable season to this point, with rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen recently acknowledging that the team has “low expectations” for the remainder of the year. The upcoming trade deadline seemingly offered a chance for the club to recoup a consolation prize or two by cashing in some veterans.

Wheeler is not only the team’s best pending free agent, he’s one of the top trade chips in all of baseball. The 29-year-old had finally moved past the health issues that dogged him earlier in his career, finding a new gear in his final two seasons before reaching the open market. While he only carries a 4.69 ERA this year, he has thrown harder than ever before, racked up an impressive 9.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9, and logged plenty of innings (119 over 19 starts).

Today’s news threatens to dent that profile of Wheeler as a deadline piece. Buying teams will be especially wary given his prior concerns and the lack of future contractual control. The Mets will have to hope that Wheeler is able to bounce right back and show he’s still throwing well. If not, their options could be limited, particularly given the lack of an August trade period to work with. Teams have in the past swung deals for injured players; the Rays’ 2013 acquisition of Jesse Crain comes to mind. But if Wheeler’s value is harmed sufficiently, it may well end up making greater sense for the team to hold tight and hope he throws well enough down the stretch to warrant a qualifying offer.

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April.  No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game.  We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016.  The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015.  The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke.  For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.

2.  Anthony Rendon.  In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate.  Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract.  Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court.  A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.

3.  Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone.  It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016.  He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late.  San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him.  That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power.  In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.

4.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue.  The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season.  Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one.  Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.

5.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season.  He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior.  As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.

6.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right.  The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal.  But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season.  Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.

7.  Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL.  The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball.  Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure.  If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.

8.  Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances.  However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures.  Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017.  Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.

9.  Jake Odorizzi.  A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings.  30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half.  However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.

10.  Yasmani Grandal.  Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee.  He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.

Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas

Jace Peterson Opts Out Of Orioles Contract

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Infielder/outfielder Jace Peterson has been granted his release from the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate, per an announcement from the team. David Hall of the Virginian Pilot tweets that Peterson had an opt-out provision in his contract that he triggered yesterday.

Peterson, 29, spent the vast majority of the 2018 season in Baltimore but turned in a disappointing .195/.308/.325 through 235 plate appearances while seeing time at second base, shortstop, third base and both corner outfield spots. He re-upped with the O’s on a minor league contract this winter and has enjoyed a productive year thus far in Norfolk, where he’s batted .309/.394/.505 with nine home runs, 24 doubles, five triples and a dozen stolen bases in 86 games.

The versatile Peterson has appeared at all four infield positions and all three outfield positions in the big leagues. Through parts of five big league seasons, he’s tallied 1524 plate appearances through 479 games while hitting .228/.318/.330.

Twins Activate Rosario, Cron; Buxton Placed On IL; Morin Designated For Assignment

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4:35pm: The Twins announced that Byron Buxton has been placed on the 7-day concussion list and Morin has been designated for assignment. Rosario and Cron have also formally been reinstated from the IL.

4:12pm: Morin’s DFA will likely be one of the moves made to accommodate the returns of both Eddie Rosario and C.J. Cron from the injured list, Hayes tweets.

3:55pm: The Twins will designate right-hander Mike Morin for assignment today, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic (Twitter links). There’s no word on what the corresponding roster move will be, although Hayes adds that a trade doesn’t appear to be pending. The Twins already had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster.

Morin, 28, has given the Twins 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball, though there’s ample reason to be skeptical of that earned run average. The former Angels/Mariners/Royals righty has only whiffed 11 hitters in that time (4.8 K/9) and has benefited from a deflated .230 average on balls put into play against him. He’s done a nice job keeping the ball on the ground (47.4 percent) and avoiding walks (just two allowed), but Morin’s results have also begun to fade as of late.

In his past 11 outings, Morin has been tagged for 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and two walks in 11 1/3 innings. He’s also hit a batter in that time, and two of the 13 hits he yielded have been home runs. ERA alternatives like FIP (4.49), xFIP (4.86) and SIERA (4.62) all peg Morin as a candidate for further regression, and Statcast also feels that he’s been fortunate to generate the results he’s gotten so far (.319 xwOBA vs. his actual .277 wOBA).

Minnesota will have a week to trade Morin, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, meaning any team that picks him up either via trade or waiver claim would need to carry Morin on the MLB roster.

Rangers Activate Hunter Pence, Option Willie Calhoun, Select Taylor Guerrieri

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The Rangers announced this afternoon that they’ve activated Hunter Pence from the injured list and optioned outfielder Willie Calhoun to Triple-A Nashville to open a spot on the roster. Texas has also selected the contract of right-hander Taylor Guerrieri and placed left-hander Jesse Biddle on the injured list due to shoulder fatigue.

As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays (via Twitter), Calhoun was rather blindsided by the move. “I’m speechless,” Calhoun said after learning of his demotion. “I’ve helped the team win. If me playing every day at Nashville helps team win, then I guess I have to play every day in Nashville.”

Calhoun has indeed been a generally productive bat with Texas, hitting .277/.313/.489 with five big flies in 99 plate appearances. At the same time, he’s struggled mightily to get on base in his latest stint with the team. Since being summoned from Nashville on June 17, Calhoun has homered three times and smacked four doubles in 75 PAs, but he’s also batted just .225/.267/.408 on the whole. He’s walked more than he’s punched out so far in Nashville in 2019, so perhaps a quick trip back down to the minors can help him to bring some of that approach to the MLB level.

That said, Calhoun also seems like a casualty of a roster that simply has too many outfielders at the moment. Delino DeShields Jr. is hitting .326/.377/.442 since his own recall from Triple-A. Joey Gallo (.266/.406/.626) has been sensational all season long. Pence (.294/.363/.608) and fellow veteran Shin-Soo Choo (.291/.389/.508) are both highly productive veterans. Nomar Mazara may not have lived up to his considerable prospect billing yet, but he’s outhit Calhoun over the past couple of months nonetheless (.276/.327/.454 in his past 40 games).

Calhoun seems likely to return in the event of an injury or trade elsewhere in the outfield, and it’s at least possible that the organization takes this demotion as an opportunity to continue getting him some work in the infield. Texas has reportedly been working Calhoun out at second base and even third base of late, and if that experiment continues into game settings in the minors, it’d only enhance his versatility at the MLB level. Calhoun does have extensive experience as a second baseman in the minors, but he was moved to the outfield due to defensive concerns.

As for Guerrieri, the former first-round pick (Rays, 2011) and top prospect will get his first shot with the Rangers after notching a 3.47 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings with the team’s Nashville affiliate. He did throw 9 2/3 frames with the Blue Jays in his first big league action last year, allowing five runs on nine hits and four walks with eight strikeouts.

Blue Jays Designate Edwin Jackson For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have recalled righty Jacob Waguespack from Triple-A Buffalo and designated veteran righty Edwin Jackson to clear a spot on the roster, per a team announcement.

Jackson, 35, is baseball’s consummate journeyman, having appeared with an MLB-record 14 teams since debuting as a 19-year-old with the Dodgers back in 2003. His stop in Toronto broke Octavio Dotel’s record of 13 clubs, but his time pitching in a Jays uniform produced the worst results of his career. Through 28 1/3 frames, Jackson has been tattooed for an 11.12 ERA; he’s been charged with 35 earned runs on a staggering 49 hits (12 home runs) and 13 walks with 19 strikeouts in that time.

The Jays will have a week to act on Jackson, and while he can be traded to another club, it seems likelier that he’ll either be passed through waivers or released. If he does return to the open market, Jackson will all but certainly need to take a minor league deal and earn his way back onto a big league roster — perhaps with the 15th team of his MLB career.

Mariners Designate Mac Williamson For Assignment

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The Mariners announced Tuesday that outfielder Mac Williamson has been designated for assignment. His roster spot will go to utilityman Kristopher Negron, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Tacoma. Seattle also recalled right-hander Erik Swanson from Tacoma to fill a vacant spot on its active roster.

Williamson, 28, was once viewed as a potential long-term option with the Giants but has yet to replicate his solid Triple-A production at the MLB level. Seattle gave him a slightly longer look than San Francisco did in 2019, but his results with both clubs were poor. In a combined 144 trips to the plate this year, Williamson has slashed an underwhelming .156/.250/.258 while striking out at a 30.6 percent pace. He does have some pop in his bat, evidenced by a lifetime .266/.344/.488 line in parts of five Triple-A seasons.

Williamson is out of minor league options, so any club that acquires him would have to carry him on its MLB roster. The Mariners will have a week to trade him, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. If they go the latter route and he clears, Williamson could still elect free agency due to the fact that he’s already been outrighted off a 40-man roster once in his career.

Red Sox Option Ryan Brasier

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The Red Sox announced Tuesday that they’ve optioned struggling right-handed reliever Ryan Brasier to Triple-A Pawtucket. Southpaw Darwinzon Hernandez is up from Pawtucket in his place.

Brasier’s demotion is the latest in a series of suboptimal outcomes for a Boston relief corps that the front office neglected to address in the offseason. Brasier and fellow righty Matt Barnes opened the season expected to share closing duties, but neither has performed up to expectations. Brasier’s last couple of weeks have been particularly rough, as he’s allowed runs in four of his past seven outings — including four runs in two-thirds of an inning last night. In all, he’s sitting on a 4.24 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9 and a 28.8 percent ground-ball rate. ERA alternatives like FIP (4.72) and xFIP (5.40) paint an even uglier picture than Brasier’s lackluster ERA.

The bullpen will receive a boost when Nathan Eovaldi returns from the injured list later this month and assumes closing duties. Boston re-signed its postseason hero on a hefty four-year, $68MM contract with the idea that he’d serve as a key rotation piece, but he’s been out since late April due to elbow surgery and will now return in a bullpen role. The Red Sox already acquired Andrew Cashner to step into Eovaldi’s rotation spot alongside Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez, but additional bullpen help will surely be on president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s radar in the 15 days leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

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