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Archives for 2019

Exploring NBA’s Model-Based Load Management System For Position Players

By TC Zencka | November 16, 2019 at 9:38am CDT

Studies around the game are investing significant resources into the study of players’ health, and though we know all change is bad and everyone hates it, baseball could soon turn to the model-based resting patterns that has swept through the NBA in recent seasons, per The Athletic’s Eno Sarris.

Technological advancement has already clung to the pitching side of the game, where Driveline and pitching labs have entered the common vernacular. Studies continue to work towards a better understanding of pitcher health, including looking at spin rate changes as an indicator of future injury. The naked eye can only gauge so much in terms of a player’s fatigue level, and the goal here is to put as much precision into the process as is scientifically possible.

Pitchers’ rest has obviously been a key part of the modern game, but it’s the position player side that might lean towards an NBA-style model-based resting program. It’s not uncommon, of course, for players to want to play everyday or even insist that their play improves the more often they’re in the game. Sarris provides Marcus Semien as an example – Semien feels days off knocks him out of rhythm.

There’s certainly validity to Semien’s line of thinking, but the counter would be that a day or two of feeling off in the box is worth it in the grand scheme of a 6-month long season. Tracking acute stress versus chronic stress is one of the key issues in managing player fatigue, and there’s more than one philosophy on how to manage it. It’s difficult to quantify the impact of fatigue on player performance, but there’s little doubt it plays a significant role in the game. In fact, it very well might be the area of greatest impact of which we know the least.

Of course, getting enough information to make a model-based resting program would mean cooperation from the players. There’s a fair amount of data acquisition possible through wearable technology, but if players aren’t invested in these programs, it will be difficult to progress. Players have plenty of reason to invest themselves in this brand of technological advancement, but they also have cause to be wary. If data collected is owned by the teams, players are put in a vulnerable position – as said data could be used against them in contract negotiations.

As pitcher velocity rises and injuries continue to threaten their livelihood, expect this conversation to gain traction, and don’t be surprised if the data ownership conversation spills over into the next round of CBA negotiations. In an increasingly flattened competitive landscape, teams already view health as a new frontier to gain a competitive advantage. To delve further, Sarris’ full article is well worth a read, as he explores this issue in full, citing a number of studies currently working to better understand player load management.

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2021 CBA Marcus Semien

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AL Notes: Trumbo, Angels, Orioles, Harvey

By TC Zencka | November 16, 2019 at 8:41am CDT

Mark Trumbo understands the realities of his situation as a soon-to-be 34-year-old free agent slugger, but he’s not ready to call it quits yet, per The Athletic’s Dan Connolly. While he’s not officially retiring, he knows his playing days might be at an end. As for the next step of his career, he would like to teach hitting at some level, but he needs an opportunity on that front as well. As he contemplates his future while in baseball limbo, Trumbo even considers coming back as a two-way player. Trumbo was drafted as a pitcher before an arthritic elbow pushed him off the mound, so it’s not as far fetched as it might seem. Still, the career .249/.302/.459 hitter is probably a safer bet to enter the coaching ranks than return as a pitcher – but you never know. Let’s check in elsewhere around the AL…

  • The Angels have until December 31 to opt out of their stadium lease or else remain there through 2029, and team officials met with city officials to discuss their potential options, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Obviously, there’s not a ton of time to make a decision, but the possibility of extending the deadline is in play if the team and city make progress on a new plan before year’s end. Previous negotiations focused on the city leasing land to the team so they could develop ballpark’s surrounding area into revenue steams such as shops, restaurants, and hotels. That revenue could then funnel back into a ballpark fund. The cost of the land lease seems to be a sticking point for now, but both sides will continue working towards a deal. Either way, the Angels appear fixed on remaining in Anaheim.
  • Orioles manager Brandon Hyde kept reliever Hunter Harvey on a strict usage limit last season, though they preferred not to advertise the plan to opponents, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. As Harvey made the transition from starter to reliever, he was not to be used on back-to-back days, and they slowed his usage even further when his arm wasn’t recuperating as quickly as they expected. Harvey, 25 in December, hopes the restrictions are lifted this season, though it will depend on his health as the season approaches. After 7 appearances and a 1.42 ERA in his debut in 2019, Harvey appears a lock to make the roster should his health allow it, which has often been the problem for the former first round pick. If Harvey survives the spring without any setbacks, expect him to have an opportunity in high-leverage situations for the Orioles, perhaps even as the club’s nominal closer.
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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Angels Notes Hunter Harvey Mark Trumbo

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Latest On Kenta Maeda’s Status With Dodgers

By Dylan A. Chase | November 16, 2019 at 2:03am CDT

Recent years have seen the Dodgers deploy pitcher Kenta Maeda in something of a fluid fashion, with the Japanese import generally moving to late-season bullpen duty after performing for the first few months of each campaign as a starter. While Maeda has generally flourished while working out of the bullpen, Friday’s report from Andy McCullough of The Athletic indicates that the hurler hasn’t been pleased with his tenuous hold on a rotation spot. Maeda’s dissatisfaction with his role has been communicated to the club and team president Andrew Friedman, who has, in return, issued a challenge to the pitcher to find “another gear” in his performance.

While taking this situation at face value might lead some to assume that the two parties are at an impasse, the sides have, judging from McCullough’s report, maintained an amicable relationship and open lines of communication. Maeda’s agent from Wasserman, Joel Wolfe, is quoted as saying that the idea of a trade has been explored by both sides, but such a possibility remains firmly on the backburner as both team and player figure out a way to accommodate a compromise. While there is a contractual component to Maeda’s concerns, Wolfe was quick to point out that the pitcher’s chief frustration is with his usage and not his compensation.

“He cares more about the role than the contract,” Wolfe said. “But the contract acts somewhat as a limitation because there’s a lot of upside for the Dodgers in limiting his starts.”  The contract Wolfe refers to is the one Maeda signed with Los Angeles in advance of the 2016 season, when the right-hander secured an eight-year, $28MM on the strength of a sterling NPB track record.

Owing in part to elbow concerns that dogged Maeda at the time of his posting, that deal featured a $10MM in annual incentives related to games started and innings pitched. Obviously, Maeda’s move to the bullpen in 2017, 2018, and 2019 has severely hampered his chances of securing those sizable bonuses–and that’s before accounting for potential moves the club might make this offseason in an effort to improve its staff.

To be clear, the Dodgers already project to enter 2020 with a rather stacked rotation picture. Friedman recently outlined the club’s plan to enter next season with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Maeda in the rotation, with youngsters Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin also on hand as rather formidable options. Rich Hill has clearly stated his desire to return to Dodger nation, and the club has been speculatively connected to virtually every significant free agent starter this side of Gerrit Cole.

Obviously, it may prove tough to find Maeda the 30 to 32 starts he desires with such a surplus in the rotation; further complicating matters is the unique value that the 32-year-old has offered in his recent hybrid role. Maeda’s annual moves to the bullpen have been something of a strategic boon for the club, as he’s posted a 3.19 ERA and 3.13 FIP out of the pen since 2017 (compared to a 4.12 ERA and 3.84 FIP as a starter across that same span).

Maeda has also exhibited undeniable inconsistencies across his splits profile, often struggling against left-handed hitters while absolutely trouncing righties. In 2019, Maeda offered a 5.27 ERA against southpaws while holding a 2.96 ERA mark against same-handed hitters; weighted on-base average (.319 vs. .229) painted a similarly imbalanced picture, supporting the notion that Maeda’s annual transformation into a right-handed setup stopper may actually just be the most prudent course of club action.

While the merits of the club’s historical usage of Maeda may be difficult to argue against, it will still be interesting to monitor whether the pitcher’s sentiments play at least some small role in the Dodgers’ approach to the trade or free agent front. The addition of a top right-handed relief option could conceivably lessen the imperative to again shift Maeda’s role again in 2020, whereas a significant free agent starter signing could represent yet another arm to help usher Maeda toward the bullpen in the season’s final months.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Kenta Maeda

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Latest On Pirates’ Managerial Search, Front Office

By Dylan A. Chase | November 15, 2019 at 11:54pm CDT

The acquisition of a new club manager promises to be the first order of business on the schedule of new Pirates GM Ben Cherington, but it appears as if the Pittsburgh exec may be given a bit of a running start from an HR perspective. Cherington is apparently happy with the work done by Pittsburgh staffers in search of a manager to this point and may simply re-interview several of the club’s existing candidates, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network (link).

The Pirates reportedly interviewed Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp, Dodgers first base coach George Lombard, Athletics bench coach Ryan Christenson, and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro for the job earlier in the offseason before their search was “paused” with the ouster of former GM Neal Huntington. Interestingly, Heyman also indicated that Pirates bench coach Jeff Banister, former Pirates third base coach Joey Cora, and Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay also interviewed with the club this offseason. Cora’s name is a new entry into public knowledge of the proceedings; Bannister and Kotsay were know to be under some consideration, but it wasn’t clear whether they had interviewed.

Besides being a former player and the older brother to Red Sox manager Alex Cora, the 54-year-old Cora carries previous experience as the manager of Pittsburgh’s Double-A affiliate in 2016. He has served as the club’s major league third base coach and infield coach since being hired in advance of the 2017 season. Bannister would also represent something of a familiar face to Pittsburgh fans, as the former Rangers manager has recently served the club in both bench coach and special advisor capacities.

If familiarity is key to Cherington’s hiring process, however, it may appear that Kotsay and Shelton would have something of an advantage. Kotsay spent time as a player with the Red Sox when Cherington was a Boston exec from 2008 to 2009, while Shelton was a coach with Toronto in 2017 while Cherington was a Jays VP. Further helping matters for Kotsay and Shelton may be Heyman’s indication that both were among those to interview “very well” for Pittsburgh’s managerial opening earlier this offseason (link).

Regardless of which direction the club goes with regard to their managerial search, it appears that Cherington will be doing so without the aid of Kyle Stark, who was relieved of his post as assistant GM today. The club’s announcement of Stark’s exit continues a general house cleaning that has followed a rather bizarre 69-93 campaign in the Steel City. Stark, who had served as the club’s assistant GM since 2007, will join Huntington, former team president Frank Coonelly, and former manager Clint Hurdle as a recent departee of the Pittsburgh organization.

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Uncategorized Alex Cora Ben Cherington Derek Shelton Jeff Banister Joey Cora Mark Kotsay

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NL Notes: Nats, Cubs, Rox, Cards

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2019 at 10:15pm CDT

In one of the winter’s most fascinating storylines, the Nationals face the potential loss of two more centerpiece players after bidding adieu to Bryce Harper last winter … and then winning a long-awaited crown. The D.C. organization would like to “get quick resolutions” on both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), rather than engaging in a protracted courtship. If it’s a fond farewell, in either situation, then the Nats would like to get on with sorting out a replacement plan. The offseason could take any number of different directions for the defending World Series champs.

More from the National League …

  • The Cubs like Nicholas Castellanos and he likes the Cubs. So … why not bring him back? Sahadev Sharma breaks down the situation for The Athletic (subscription link), explaining the many barriers to a reunion. In part it’s simply a financial issue, but there is also a legitimate dilemma in the outfield. Kyle Schwarber’s season went much like that of Castellanos, starting meekly and ending quite strong, so why replace the former with the latter? Both are bat-first players that probably shouldn’t be standing on the same outfield grass for too long. That leaves the focus on center field, per Sharma, which is where things get tricky. There are loads of other clubs facing similar situations and relatively few up-the-middle options available — particularly in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see how the Cubs sort things out, but Castellanos seems to be a bit of a mis-fitting puzzle piece — unless, perhaps, other developments intervene and his market doesn’t develop as he hopes.
  • It is still tough to gauge whether the Rockies will end up pulling off some major roster moves or simply make a few tweaks. GM Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort have suggested the club will need to improve largely from within, while also expressing optimism that it can do so. But we’ve heard persistent chatter regarding possible trade scenarios involving top Colorado players — much of it speculative, to be fair. Odds are, the Rox will simply be looking for affordable, marginal improvements this winter. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post provides a transcript of Bridich’s most recent comments. Bolstering the pitching and finding a second catcher are the two goals, though it still seems those will be of modest expense. So what of the idea of trading Jon Gray? Saunders tweets that the Rockies could be open to it … if they can secure a major package involving significant prospects as well as “an established pitcher” to replace Gray. That feels unlikely to come to fruition.
  • The Cardinals have traded away a huge volume of outfield talent in recent years and have plenty of internal options at or near the majors. Yet the teams still enters the winter with a possible need in that area, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). He reasons that the team needs to add a left-handed-hitting piece and looks at a few theoretical trade possibilities. The trick is that the Cards don’t appear interested in raising payroll and all the veterans cited will not be particularly cheap. Joc Pederson ($8.5MM), David Peralta ($8.8MM), and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) probably wouldn’t require major prospect hauls to acquire, but could bust the self-imposed St. Louis budget. We actually predicted that this year’s top two left-handed-hitting free agent corner outfielders, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun, would secure less annually than each of those players.
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Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies Notes St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Anthony Rendon Jon Gray Stephen Strasburg

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Jake Odorizzi Discusses Qualifying Offer Decision

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2019 at 7:53pm CDT

Righty Jake Odorizzi discussed his decision to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer with reporters including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (Twitter thread) and Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The chat provided some insight into Odorizzi’s thought process and future intentions.

Broadly, Odorizzi made clear he was pleased to return to Minnesota. “On a one-year deal, this was the place I wanted to be,” he said. The righty indicated that he’s comfortable in all respects with the organization — and would in fact be open to a longer arrangement.

Odorizzi is “always open” to talks on a long-term pact, he says. But he suggested he’ll leave it to the front office whether to kick-start such an effort, saying “the ball’s in their court now.”

It seems possible the Twins could explore a multi-year scenario with Odorizzi in the coming spring, but that’s a low-likelihood proposition. For a front office that plainly values long-term payroll flexibility, going beyond the existing $17.8MM commitment may not hold particular appeal. There’s always a price at which it might make sense, but Odorizzi won’t be able to generate open-market pressure again until after the 2020 season.

The muddied starting pitching market seems to have been a deciding factor in Odorizzi’s decision to accept the single-season payout. He indicated that he was in touch with plenty of clubs but was ultimately unable to gain sufficient clarity regarding his contract outlook to take the risk of hitting the market with draft compensation attached. “I didn’t want to be sitting on my couch in February,” Odorizzi explained.

Compare his situation to that of Will Smith, the left-handed reliever who secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves and declined his QO from the Giants. Though MLBTR assessed Smith’s market value beneath that of Odorizzi, the former stood out greatly in a market that lacked for premium late-inning arms. That scarcity surely made it much easier for his reps to ramp up his market in a short time frame and arrive upon a deal.

Odorizzi’s gambit could certainly pay off in the long run, though he’ll need to turn in another high-quality season for that to be the case. He says he hopes to land “at the top of the class” on the market next winter, when the Twins won’t be able to saddle him with another QO. Odorizzi is certainly young enough to take this path, though it’s always tough to pass on a chance to lock up a long-term commitment on the heels of a strong season. Of course, it’s always worth remembering that these decisions are personal to the player.

On the Twins’ side, it’s hard to see this as anything but a win. Odorizzi might have cost just as much annually on a multi-year pact on the open market. Instead, the club gets a much-needed rotation piece at a palatable single-season rate without having to commit into the future. In theory, this could make it more likely that the Minnesota org strikes big in other areas of the market — including, perhaps, some of the players that spurned qualifying offers yesterday.

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Minnesota Twins Jake Odorizzi

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MLBTR Poll: Qualified Free Agents

By Connor Byrne | November 15, 2019 at 7:13pm CDT

Thursday was the deadline for the 10 players who received the $17.8MM qualifying offer early this offseason to decide whether to take it. Seven players ended up rejecting, two accepted it (Jake Odorizzi and Jose Abreu) and one (Will Smith, now with the Braves) signed a contract with another team. The players who turned it down – Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner and Marcell Ozuna – are now in something of a disadvantageous position. With a QO hanging over their heads, it would require another team to surrender both a significant amount of money and draft compensation to sign them.

We’ve seen the QO hamper free agents in the past, but will it occur again this winter? First off, if it does, it’s at least not going to victimize Cole, Rendon or Strasburg. No matter what, they’re primed to lead this class of free agents in guarantees. Cole and Rendon should reel in $200MM-plus in guarantees, while Strasburg could approach that number. On the other hand, Wheeler, Donaldson, Bumgarner and Ozuna may face some degree of adversity thanks to the QO. Here’s a rundown on each…

Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
MLBTR projection: Five years, $100MM

  • Aside from the QO, is there anything that would scare clubs away from Wheeler? Perhaps his injury history. Wheeler’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed all of 2015-16 and a large portion of ’17, though he has come back strong since. He combined for 377 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ball from 2018-19, during which he was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters.

Josh Donaldson, 3B
Age: 34 in December
MLBTR projection: Three years, $75MM

  • Age could be a problem for Donaldson, easily the oldest player left on this offseason’s qualifying offer market. He’s also not far from a couple injury-shortened seasons (2017-18) with the Blue Jays and Indians. To his credit, though, Donaldson was outstanding during a return to health in 2019. In his first and possibly lone season with the Braves, he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs over 659 plate appearances. He’s now the second-best free-agent third baseman in a group that also includes Rendon and Mike Moustakas.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
MLBTR projection: Four years, $72MM

  • Bumgarner, known for his postseason exploits and his long run atop the Giants’ rotation, put injury-limited 2017-18 seasons behind him this year to fire 207 2/3 innings with 8.8 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. Those are front-of-the-rotation numbers, though the 3.90 ERA/FIP and 4.31 xFIP Bumgarner put up indicate he’s more of a No. 3-type starter nowadays. There’s nothing wrong with that, and judging by the early interest in Bumgarner in free agency, it appears he’ll be fine.

Marcell Ozuna, OF
Age: 29
MLBTR projection: Three years, $45MM

  • Ozuna’s the youngest player here, but he also looks like the least desirable. Although he typically offered above-average production in each season since he debuted in 2013, only once – in 2017 – has Ozuna recorded star-caliber numbers. He’s now coming off a year in which he slashed .243/.330/.474 (good for a decent but unspectacular 110 wRC+) with 29 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 2.6 fWAR across 549 trips to the plate. Does that type of output merit a large contract and draft compensation? We’ll see. It shouldn’t help Ozuna’s cause that there’s a similarly valuable free-agent corner outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos, who’s not saddled with a QO.

(Poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Polls

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Latest On Royals’ Offseason Plans

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2019 at 6:34pm CDT

The Royals are still grinding through a rebuild and are undergoing a transition at the ownership level, so it never seemed likely they’d be big players on the open market. The club’s precise plans have remained a mystery, but we’re now finally beginning to get a sense of the shape of the Kansas City offseason.

Kansas City fans won’t likely see much in the way of exciting new talent in 2020, as Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that the organization has a “very limited budget” to work with. A decent chunk of what the club has made available is expected to go to veteran outfielder Alex Gordon, with the remainder to be allocated to some pitching additions. That’s not an especially inspiring offseason wish list for an organization that hasn’t posted a winning record since its 2015 World Series-winning effort.

[RELATED: Kansas City Royals Offseason Outlook]

While some lean years always seemed likely to follow that push, the Dayton Moore-led front office has largely declined to cash in veterans when opportunities have arisen. Players such as Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Whit Merrifield, and even Salvador Perez would for many teams have been trade bait. Even as the team has strongly indicated a desire for a quick bounce back to relevance — it has touted recent collegiate draft selections and there was even mid-season chatter in 2019 of a Wild Card run — it has been difficult to envision that happening based upon the present assemblage of talent.

The concept of a quick revamping would seem to call for some infusion of MLB talent from outside the organization. But that’s not the only way the club can spend money this winter. Other reporting indicates that the club may believe in its budding new core, but will wait at least another year to add to it.

Though they won’t be spending to add from the outside, the Royals will consider plunking down cash to secure the services of existing players into the future, according to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). He lists Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, and Adalberto Mondesi as conceivable extension candidates. One might speculatively add hurler Brad Keller to that group as well.

Of that slate of possibilities for long-term deals, only Soler is nearing the open market. While the 27-year-old has finally hit his stride, it’s debatable how wise it would be to lock into a bat-first corner outfielder. But there’s certainly merit to pursuing a deal at the right price. The other players listed have even more still to prove, though Mondesi does offer tantalizing upside as an extension candidate.

It remains to be seen whether talks will advance. There won’t be much of an impact on the 2020 outlook regardless. (It’s not terribly promising.) The most interesting question remaining, then, is whether the Royals will make a dedicated effort to find deals to move Duffy, Kennedy, or (especially) Merrifield.

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Kansas City Royals Adalberto Mondesi Hunter Dozier Jorge Soler

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MLB Reportedly Planning To Tweak Injured List Rule For Pitchers

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2019 at 5:19pm CDT

Major League Baseball is working to implement another change to the rules governing injured list placements, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Teams will now operate under separate rules for hitters and pitchers.

Hitters will continue to have a ten-day minimum injury-list placement. That’s a continuation of the change made in 2016, which dropped the number of days from the preexisting fifteen.

Pitchers, however, will go back to the prior 15-day placement if the rule is finalized. That will raise the bar for placing hurlers on the IL but help to tamp down some of the rather obvious abuses of the system that had cropped up.

It’s not yet clear precisely how some other roster rules will change. There has been prior indication that MLB would look into increasing the length of the minimum time an optioned player must stay down before being summoned back to the big leagues.

The overall goal here, clearly, is to avoid some of the roster hijinks that are used to churn through arms. While there are legitimate health and performance reasons to cycle pitchers, there’s also a point at which there can be a harm to the on-field product as well as to individual players.

Any changes of this nature will need to be done in coordination with the MLB Players Association. Other major rule changes that were agreed upon previously are already set to go into effect for the 2020 season.

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Uncategorized

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Brewers Claim Eric Yardley

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2019 at 2:31pm CDT

The Brewers have claimed righty Eric Yardley off waivers from the Padres, per a club announcement. While the MLB.com transactions page indicates that Yardley was released, he evidently had not yet cleared release waivers.

With the move, the Milwaukee club will hand a 40-man spot over to an intriguing sidearmer who could compete for a bullpen job in camp. Yardley doesn’t have much MLB experience but was able to make it through 11 2/3 frames with just three earned runs in his 2019 debut.

Yardley’s low-velo offerings have proven effective over a longer run in the upper minors. He recorded 63 2/3 frames of 2.83 ERA pitching at Triple-A last year, racking up a 63.8% groundball rate while limiting the long ball (0.42 HR/9) and carrying 7.4 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.

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Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres Transactions Eric Yardley

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