Cleveland came into 2019 as a three-time defending AL Central champion, but the club looked as if it was relinquishing its status as a powerhouse over the first couple months of the season. Owing partially to serious injuries or illnesses to starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, the Indians were a somewhat unthinkable 26-27 after a loss in Boston on May 27. At that point, 10 games back of the emergent Twins in their division, the Indians appeared to be on their way to serving as trade deadline sellers.
On May 14, two weeks before the Indians sunk below .500, they promoted outfielder Oscar Mercado from Triple-A Columbus. Now, over two months later, Mercado’s call-up stands out as a development that has helped key a turnaround. Even though they’re still without Kluber and Carrasco, the Indians have rallied to 58-41, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and a surmountable three behind the Twins – whom they play 10 more times.
The 24-year-old Mercado is among the reasons there’s now a legitimate battle in the AL Central. He’s just under a year from joining the Indians, with the club having acquired him at last July’s trade deadline from the Cardinals. Mercado was then a solid prospect who was fresh off an effective Triple-A run with the Redbirds. His numbers declined when he transferred to the Tribe’s top affiliate after the trade, but Mercado came back with a vengeance this season. Before his promotion, Mercado slashed .294/.396/.496 (130 wRC+) with 15 extra-base hits (10 doubles, four home runs and a triple) and 14 stolen bases in 140 plate appearances.
When they summoned Mercado for his first big league experience, the Indians likely would have been thrilled with playable production – let alone above-average numbers. So far, they’ve gotten the latter. Across 230 trips to the plate, Mercado has batted .297/.350/.488 (117 wRC+), swatted eight homers with a respectable .191 ISO, and swiped nine bags on 11 tries. He has also essentially been a scratch defender in center, albeit over a small sample size, with 1 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Back when Mercado joined the Indians, they were still clinging to hope that slumping veteran Leonys Martin would rebound. Martin, returning from the life-threatening bacterial infection he suffered in 2018, was the Indians’ Opening Day center fielder and their go-to choice there over the season’s first couple months. Finally, on June 22, the Indians decided Martin’s rope had run out. They designated him for assignment after Martin hit .199/.276/.343 (61 wRC+) with minus-0.6 fWAR in 264 trips to the plate.
The cutting of Martin, who’s now playing in Japan, officially opened the door for Mercado to assume the outfield’s most important position. Aside from a couple days in which Greg Allen has started at the position, it has belonged to Mercado almost exclusively. Overall, Mercado has been remarkably consistent. His wRC+ by month: 119 in May, 118 in June, 114 in July. The righty’s wRC+ against same-handed pitchers: 119. His wRC+ against lefties: 115.
If you’re looking for negatives, it’s obvious there is some good fortune propping up Mercado’s output. Although Mercado’s one of the game’s fastest players, a .335 batting average on balls in play could be difficult to uphold. And while Mercado’s only striking out at a 17.6 percent clip, he’s walking just 5.6 percent of the time. Statcast, meanwhile, paints somewhat of a bleak picture in regards to his production, placing Mercado in the league’s 39th percentile or worse in expected weighted on-base average (.322, compared to a .357 real wOBA), expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Even if Mercado regresses toward his xwOBA as the season moves along, he’d still qualify as an easy upgrade over Martin, who posted a .270 wOBA before the Tribe cut him. Thanks in part to what Mercado has done so far, the Indians’ outfield hasn’t been the massive question mark it was at the outset of the season. The Indians, set to begin life without Michael Brantley then, ran out an Opening Day outfield of Martin, Jake Bauers in left and Tyler Naquin in right. They’re now going with Mercado, a Bauers/Jordan Luplow platoon in left and Naquin at his season-opening spot on a regular basis.
Bauers has recently put up much better offensive totals than he did during a disastrous May; the righty-swinging Luplow has been a force against lefties throughout 2019; and Naquin has come back well from a pair of lost seasons at the MLB level. However, of the Indians’ main outfielders, it’s Mercado who has been their best. The rookie has played an important role in saving Cleveland’s season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
i’ll admit, i groaned and thought “typical cheap indians trade” when they made that deal last year, but this is setting up to be a huge steal for the tribe
I do not know what the Cardinals were thinking when out of nowhere John Mozeliak traded one of top prospects the Cards had. Let not even mention Luke Voit that was a very bad trade for the Cards too, but at least we acquired a good reliever Gallegos.
Mercado was not a top prospect, nor was Voit.. Credit the players for developing more.
Another sage move by the dynamic duo known as Girzeliak…
And how many OFers do you want on our 40 man, that was the problem and still is there’s an overflow in some positions and we have gems still. Mercado was split into two good lower prospects to help the churn rather than losing guys to rule 5. It would help when complaining about the Cardinals your bias and no regard to baseball knowledge of how the roster was is admitted. 1B was full, voit same reason and Gallegos has been even better for us, it’s a win win trade stop hating.
You can’t possibly be serious. Accountability is obviously not in your vocabulary & pointing out asinine organizational misgivings is not hating, it’s accurately calling out horrific personel moves along with the sheep that provide the camouflage which further perpetuates the regression of this formerly advanced thinking franchise.
Hate on that…
I also noticed you didn’t include the Pham deal in your list of trades the Cards have gotten burnt on here of late…..
I wonder why?
The Pham deal isn’t even close to being ready to be evaluated. They expect huge things out of Genesis Cabrera, easy to call a trade one-sided when the prospect isn’t even a major leaguer yet (outside of his cup of coffee)
You are right, I forgot about Pham that was a terrible trade too.
Stan, It does matter, because the Cards are in win-now mode and didn’t think they would need Pham.
You realize that Voit was traded before Goldy was acquired, right? He also could have been optioned and kept in reserve for a few years. Think they wouldn’t take that one back? But hey, one of the relievers worked out.
Then there’s the Pham trade. Good luck justifying that one.
Guys w speed typically do outpace their WOBA numbers. Corner types like Reyes, Cron, Belt etc. can tend to hit below their XWOBA. Logic somewhere along the lines of Mercado can leg out doubles that would really be singles and the reverse for guys like Cron.
Wouldn’t be too terribly worried about him regressing too much with the weaker contact but that probably means he’s about at his ceiling as an offensive player. With this batted ball profile anyway. Obviously if he starts hitting the ball harder there could be more there.
He’s at his ceiling at age 24 – 10 weeks into his major league career?
His hitting technique will never get better? He won’t adjust to major league pitchers any better?
Wow.
Can you please refrain from sounding like a god damn idiot and actually comprehend my post? Specifically the last sentence.
I’ll make it easy on you. What my post essentially says is that if Oscar Mercado continues w a similar batted ball profile it will be hard for him to improve on his current (already solid) numbers.
Why do the Cardinals lose literally every trade they make nowadays?
I wouldn’t call the Seattle, Gonzales for Lewis a lost trade.
Gonzales for O’neil
That was a good trade for both teams … as for some of the rest of them as of late …. well, it is what it Is.
Just to be clear, I don’t want to argue with anyone about “those players were blocked” … I don’t believe in giving away blocked players for charity .
*O’Neill
It’s too early to evaluate a lot of of their recent trades. Pham, Gonzalez, Mercado, Piscotty…all at or near mlb players for almost all prospects. You can’t evaluate a trade before the prospects even have a chance to make it to the majors, that’s incredibly short-sighted.
The Voit trade, Ozuna trade, and Grichuk trade are more realistic in terms of readiness to be evaluated. Ya Shreve has been a bust so far, but Gallegos has been a quiet, under-rated star. Dealing from an area of strength for an area of need doesn’t seem like a horrible strategy to me. And Ozuna has been a clear win when you look at what the package Miami got has been doing. Grichuk was a mediocre outfielder for a mediocre reliever – a wash.
O and Goldie is Goldie. When he continues his hot streak and ends up right where he always does at the end of the year, it looks like a much more even trade after they locked him up to the extension. I may be forgetting one or two, but I think I got the majority.
Mercado’s babip isn’t that farfetched (30 points above average) and when considering his speed capabilities it’s pretty likely he’ll have a .310-.320 babip going forward.
But Mercado is not a trade candidate
Expected weighted on-base average. What the h#&@ kind of stat is that?
Dang, I’m glad I’m old enough to have enjoyed a lot of baseball before the geeks and their weird stats made it un-fun.
Yep, baseball is no longer just for the stubborn fans that can’t think or understand what’s happening. Everybody’s loving the game now.
Yep, it was much better to have your jaw drop every time someone regressed after playing over their head.
@Dad
Geez, some of us old folks still have all our faculties, able to see the multiple of the game…..without the stupid stats. It’s called enjoying the game for what it is.
Now where did I put my Geritol?
Multiple facets*
Stupid keyboard.