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Archives for July 2019

Does Brandon Woodruff’s Injury Affect Brewers’ Deadline Plans?

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The Brewers will go without their best starter, Brandon Woodruff, for approximately six weeks after he suffered an oblique strain Sunday. Woodruff’s absence could make it all the more imperative for the Brewers to add a starter before the July 31 trade deadline, but general manager David Stearns conveyed a lack of urgency on the matter Tuesday.

Asked if the Brewers now feel more pressure to address their rotation, Stearns said (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel): “I don’t know that we can let his temporary absence impact how we manage the deadline. I have found that potential acquisition costs generally dictate what is reasonable and what is not.”

With only about nine weeks left in the regular season, it’s probably not reassuring to Brewers fans to hear their GM brush off Woodruff’s absence as “temporary.” Even before the emergent right-hander went down, there was a strong case Milwaukee needed to pick up another starter prior to the end of the month. For what it’s worth, the team did reportedly show interest in the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard–Zack Wheeler duo (links here) and the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (link) back when Woodruff was healthy.

As for the Brewers’ current options, Zach Davies has prevented runs to an impressive degree, but his peripherals don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. Chase Anderson has turned in fine results, though he has only completed six innings in one start. Jhoulys Chacin’s season has been calamitous. Gio Gonzalez just returned from an almost two-month absence because of a dead arm, and has only averaged five frames per outing when he has taken the ball. Adrian Houser had been in the rotation out of desperation before Gonzalez came back last weekend, but the production he has posted as a starter and reliever indicates he’s much better off in a bullpen role.

The flaws in the Brewers’ rotation have helped lead to several weeks of underwhelming play from the club, though it’s still smack dab in the playoff hunt. With a 53-46 record, the reigning NL Central champions are two games behind the division-leading Cubs and 1 1/2 out of a wild-card spot. Of course, it would have been a challenge for the Brewers to clinch their second straight playoff berth for the first time since 1982 even if Woodruff had avoided the IL. Now, if the team doesn’t adequately replace Woodruff in the next week, its chances of fading from the race seem likely to increase.

Marlins’ Trevor Richards, Sergio Romo Generating Interest

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Marlins right-handers Trevor Richards and Sergio Romo are drawing interest in advance of the trade deadline, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Neither player looks like a substantial difference-maker, but there is appeal in both cases. The 26-year-old Richards’ main selling point is likely his affordable control. He’s on a minimum salary now, won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021, and isn’t on track to reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 season. The battle-tested Romo, 36, could give a contender a credible late-game option down the stretch, and he presumably wouldn’t cost much to acquire.

An undrafted free agent in 2013, Richards has emerged as a back-end starter for the Marlins since he debuted in the majors last season. Dating back to then, Richards has pitched to a 4.51 ERA/4.39 FIP with 8.8 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9 in 235 1/3 innings and 45 starts. While the Marlins are open to trading starters if doing so would help improve their position player group, they may be hard-pressed to get a desirable, major league-ready hitter back for Richards – who has been useful but far from spectacular.

Romo, previously with the Giants, Dodgers and Rays, inked a $2.5MM guarantee with the Marlins in free agency last winter. At the time, non-contending Miami was likely hoping Romo would wind up bringing something back in an in-season trade. With a 3.68 ERA/3.96 FIP, 7.85 K/9 against 3.19 BB/9 and 16 saves on 17 chances in 36 2/3 innings, perhaps the three-time world champion has performed well enough to end the season with a playoff-caliber team.

As has been the case over the past few years, Romo has limited damaging contact despite velocity that only tops out in the 85 to 86 mph range. Romo ranks in the league’s 86th percentile or better in exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average against (.273, not far from a .280 actual wOBA), expected batting average against and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. His primary pitch – a slider – has held opposing hitters to a matching and minuscule .211 xwOBA and wOBA. It’s the second-best slider in the game among relievers, according to FanGraphs’ linear weights. Judging by teams’ interest in Romo, his go-to pitch just might factor into this year’s playoff race.

Injury Notes: G. Sanchez, Domingo, Gallo

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A few late-breaking injury notes from Tuesday night’s action…

  • The Yankees won an instant classic over the Twins, but New York received unwelcome news immediately after the game. Catcher Gary Sanchez, who left early, could be on his way to the IL with a groin injury, manager Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and other reporters. Sanchez has been in a brutal slump of late, but his .229/.299/.508 line (105 wRC+) with 24 home runs in 328 plate appearances is still clearly above average for his position. Backup Austin Romine hasn’t been close to that effective, while third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka hasn’t hit at all in the majors dating back to 2017. The Yankees also have veteran Erik Kratz at the Triple-A level, but he’s not on their 40-man roster.
  • Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana will undergo an MRI on his right elbow, Corey Brock of The Athletic tweets. The 26-year-old’s elbow has troubled him since the All-Star break, Brock notes. Santana has drawn trade interest with the July 31 deadline coming up, but the Mariners’ chances of dealing him could evaporate with an IL placement. Regardless, he has been one of the non-contending M’s top hitters in 2019, having slashed .273/.342/.472 (119 wRC+) with 19 HRs across 437 PA. Santana’s also cheap ($1.95MM salary) and eligible for arbitration for another two years. However, Santana’s atrocious work in the outfield (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating) would surely tamp down his trade value.
  • Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo is battling right wrist soreness and is likely to undergo an MRI on Wednesday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. An X-ray didn’t reveal a break, though Gallo’s wrist “has been bothering him for a while,” Grant writes. That would help explain Gallo’s significant decline in production in July. Gallo owned an incredible 1.109 OPS at the end of June, but he’s down to a still-great .987 in that category.

Mariners Release Eric Young Jr.

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The Mariners released outfielder Eric Young Jr. over the weekend, Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto reports. Young had been with the Mariners’ Triple-A club in Tacoma after inking a minor league contract in late March.

The speedy Young entered 2019 having logged major league action in each season since he made his debut in 2009. But the 34-year-old never reached the bigs with the Mariners, instead struggling through a nightmarish stint in Tacoma. Young only managed a .236/.296/.362 line, good for a 57 wRC+, with two home runs and three stolen bases in 142 plate appearances before exiting the Rainiers’ roster. Historically, however, Young has been a solid contributor in Triple-A ball. He’s a .289/.371/.413 hitter with 29 HRs and 167 steals across 2,480 PA at that level.

Young has amassed just under 2,000 PA in the majors, where he has combined for 1,926 with the Rockies, Mets, Braves, Yankees and Angels. He has batted .245/.312/.332 with 13 homers and 162 steals in MLB.

Braves Among Teams Interested In White Sox Relievers

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There are “numerous teams,” including the Braves, interested in members of the White Sox bullpen, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets. Closer Alex Colome and setup man Aaron Bummer are unsurprisingly drawing plenty of attention. Beyond those two, lefty Jace Fry and resurgent righty Evan Marshall stand out as Sox relievers who could have trade value to the Braves and others. However, Levine reported Monday that Chicago’s not inclined to deal Bummer or Fry.

Levine also relayed Monday that the White Sox, despite their dismal record, aren’t motivated to sell before the July 31 deadline. But unless Chicago’s highly confident it’s going to contend next season, there’s a legitimate case for it to part with Colome. The soon-to-be 31-year-old is only under control through 2020, when he’ll earn an arbitration raise over his $7.325MM salary, and currently looks like a strong candidate for regression.

The right-handed Colome has pitched to a sterling 2.33 ERA with 21 saves on 22 tries in 38 2/3 innings this season. He has been the beneficiary of a .153 batting average on balls in play and an 82.7 percent strand out, however, and has seen his strikeout rate plummet. After fanning upward of 9.5 batters per nine last season, Colome’s K/9 has shrunk to 6.98. He’s also giving up more hard contact and less soft contact than ever, per FanGraphs, and Statcast shows a 102-point gap between the .228 weighted on-base average Colome has allowed and his expected wOBA of .330.

“Bummer” may be what opposing hitters have muttered this year when the left-handed Bummer has come out of Chicago’s bullpen. The 25-year-old Bummer is similar to Colome in that he’s getting by with help from a low BABIP (.213), an ERA that’s significantly better than his FIP and a sizable wOBA/xwOBA gap. Having said that, Bummer’s 1.73 ERA, 3.17 FIP and .262 xwOBA (compared to a .232 wOBA) are all easily above average. While Bummer’s not a strikeout-heavy pitcher, having notched 8.67 against 2.72 walks per nine, he has stymied lefty and righty hitters alike with his remarkable ability to induce ground balls. At 68.5 percent, Bummer trails only longtime grounder master Zack Britton among relievers.

Incidentally, Luke Jackson – one of the Braves’ best relievers – happens to be right behind Bummer on the grounder leaderboard. Jackson’s success is one of the reasons the Braves hold a healthy advantage in the National League East, but their bullpen has been fairly shaky. Aside from Jackson, Anthony Swarzak, Sean Newcomb and the currently injured Jacob Webb, no one from their ’pen has prevented runs at an especially excellent rate. The Braves have been in the market for late-game help as a result, and could wind up swinging a deal with the White Sox to bolster their relief corps.

Rays Interested In Jesus Aguilar

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The Rays, continuing their search for a right-handed slugger, have shown interest in Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Mark Feinsand and Juan Toribio of MLB.com report. Tampa Bay was previously connected to other notable right-handed hitters in the Rangers’ Hunter Pence and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos (links: 1, 2).

Unlike Texas and Detroit, Milwaukee doesn’t look like a potential seller going into the July 31 trade deadline. The Brewers are a game back of wild-card position and two behind the first-place Cubs in the National League Central. As such, it’s far from a sure thing the Brewers will trade Aguilar. If they do, it would have to benefit them immediately, per Feinsand and Toribio.

Considering Aguilar hasn’t been the integral piece of the Brewers’ roster that he was during a division-winning 2018, he does look more expendable now than he did at the outset of the season. Aguilar slashed .274/.352/.539 with 35 home runs over 566 plate appearances last year to serve as one of the majors’ fiercest sluggers. That production now looks like a distant memory.

So far this season, Aguilar has hit a meek .230/.328/.385 with eight HRs and a massive drop in ISO (from .264 to .155). The 29-year-old has raked in July (.342/.395/.684 in 43 PA), but it’s the sole month in which Aguilar has registered above-average production at the plate. He and the lefty-swinging Eric Thames, who’s having a much better season, have been platooning at first for the Brew Crew.

For all the faults in Aguilar’s bottom-line production, there are reasons for hope. For one, he remains something of a Statcast favorite. There’s a wide chasm between Aguilar’s weighted-on base average (.312) and expected wOBA (.351). He ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in xwOBA and checks in similarly well in expected slugging percentage (65th) and exit velocity (66th). And contrary to many other power hitters, Aguilar’s not overly prone to striking out. He has fanned a reasonable 22.9 percent of the time (with a better-than-average 12.3 percent walk rate), posted a decent 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate and chased out-of-zone pitches less than most hitters.

Should the Brewers part with Aguilar, an acquiring team would be landing a player who’s cheap now and under control for a while. Aguilar, currently on a near-minimum salary, is slated to take his first of three potential arbitration trips during the upcoming offseason.

Pirates Reinstate, Suspend Keone Kela

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TUESDAY: The Pirates suspended Kela after he got into an altercation with Hector Morales, their director of cultural readiness and peak performance coach, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweets.

MONDAY: The Pirates announced today that they have reinstated righty Keone Kela from the 60-day injured list. He’ll move directly onto the suspended list, however, with the team also announcing a two-game suspension for an unstated violation of the Uniform Player’s Contract.

The UPC (see it here) allows clubs to “suspend the Player without salary for a period not exceeding thirty days” upon a “violation by the Player of any regulation or other provision of this contract.” Written notice must be given to the player and the MLB Players Association.

It’s rather unusual to see such team-issued discipline, even if it is contemplated by contract. In some cases, collectively bargained agreements vest sole disciplinary authority for certain matters in the commissioner’s office. The Joint Drug Agreement, for instance, specifically forbids “any adverse action pursuant to a Uniform Player’s Contract” owing to violations of the terms of that agreement.

There’s no indication as of yet as to what led to Kela’s suspension. Neither is it evident whether he will attempt to challenge it in any way.

Kela, 26, has missed much of the season with shoulder issues. He carried a 4.63 ERA with 11 strikeouts and four walks through 11 2/3 innings before hitting the shelf. Kela had been expected to function as a key late-inning arm for the Bucs. He turned in a strong run last year after being acquired at the trade deadline.

It’s not clear whether there’s any realistic chance that Kela could be dealt, but it’s at least hypothetically possible — especially if he’s able to show good health upon his return and the Pirates decide to move some assets. Kela is earning $3.175MM this year and comes with another season of arbitration eligibility.

Cardinals Eyeing Lefty Relievers

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The Cardinals haven’t been as frequently mentioned on the rumor circuit as some of their NL Central counterparts, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been sitting idly by. In an appearance on Dan McLaughlin’s podcast (audio link), president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made clear that in an ideal world, he’d add at least one reliever — likely a southpaw — to his current bullpen blend.

“We’re pretty comfortable with [the bullpen],” said Mozeliak, “but as we enter the trading deadline, I think we would look to see if there’s an upgrade on the left side of the bullpen to complement [Andrew] Miller. It’s not something that we feel like if we don’t do, we have failed, it’s just something we’re exploring.”

While that isn’t exactly a declaration of aggressive buying, left-handed relief does indeed look to be an area of need in St. Louis, where Miller is the only stable option the Cards have had for much of season. Beyond Miller, who has rebounded from a slow start to the season, the only other southpaws to log innings in the Cardinals’ bullpen have been Tyler Webb, Genesis Cabrera and Chasen Shreve, who was designated for assignment earlier today.

There are plenty of lefties whose names have been bandied about the market, including Will Smith, Tony Watson, Jake Diekman and Roenis Elias. What’s not clear, though, is whether the Cardinals will be after that group. Beyond the fact that the surging Giants are no longer locks to sell off their rental assets, Mozeliak expressed an interest in perhaps pursuing some less-obvious trade candidates who offer greater flexibility over a longer term.

“…I think the key thing for us, when you’re looking at bullpen help right now, would be to try to acquire people also with options so you have some flexibility,” Mozeliak said. “We are getting to a point now where our hands are a bit tied in some areas, so to try to create a little flexibility would make sense.”

Those types aren’t generally headline-grabbers, but most rebuilding clubs have at least one reliever who could fit the bill. Speculatively speaking, Baltimore’s Paul Fry, Miami’s Jarlin Garcia and Toronto’s Tim Mayza are a few such arms who could be looked at more as flexible depth options than late-inning staples. That might sound uninspiring to onlookers, but it’s also true that with the elimination of this year’s August trade waiver period, having additional depth on hand is more important than ever. Clubs can no longer turn to the waiver market next month in order to add help as injuries arise, so having a stock of optionable arms in the upper minors is paramount.

It’s certainly not out of the question that the Cards could add a high-profile arm while still deepening the fringes of their 40-man roster with some optionable ’pen pieces. The Cards could also trim from the edges of their own 40-man — say, by dealing impending free agent Michael Wacha to a team in need of a fifth starter — either adding a bullpen piece in that kind of deal or using the newly vacated spot to add someone who, unlike Wacha, can be shuttled back and forth between Memphis and St. Louis.

Oscar Mercado Has Helped Rescue Indians’ Season

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Cleveland came into 2019 as a three-time defending AL Central champion, but the club looked as if it was relinquishing its status as a powerhouse over the first couple months of the season. Owing partially to serious injuries or illnesses to starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, the Indians were a somewhat unthinkable 26-27 after a loss in Boston on May 27. At that point, 10 games back of the emergent Twins in their division, the Indians appeared to be on their way to serving as trade deadline sellers.

On May 14, two weeks before the Indians sunk below .500, they promoted outfielder Oscar Mercado from Triple-A Columbus. Now, over two months later, Mercado’s call-up stands out as a development that has helped key a turnaround. Even though they’re still without Kluber and Carrasco, the Indians have rallied to 58-41, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and a surmountable three behind the Twins – whom they play 10 more times.

The 24-year-old Mercado is among the reasons there’s now a legitimate battle in the AL Central. He’s just under a year from joining the Indians, with the club having acquired him at last July’s trade deadline from the Cardinals. Mercado was then a solid prospect who was fresh off an effective Triple-A run with the Redbirds. His numbers declined when he transferred to the Tribe’s top affiliate after the trade, but Mercado came back with a vengeance this season. Before his promotion, Mercado slashed .294/.396/.496 (130 wRC+) with 15 extra-base hits (10 doubles, four home runs and a triple) and 14 stolen bases in 140 plate appearances.

When they summoned Mercado for his first big league experience, the Indians likely would have been thrilled with playable production – let alone above-average numbers. So far, they’ve gotten the latter. Across 230 trips to the plate, Mercado has batted .297/.350/.488 (117 wRC+), swatted eight homers with a respectable .191 ISO, and swiped nine bags on 11 tries. He has also essentially been a scratch defender in center, albeit over a small sample size, with 1 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Back when Mercado joined the Indians, they were still clinging to hope that slumping veteran Leonys Martin would rebound. Martin, returning from the life-threatening bacterial infection he suffered in 2018, was the Indians’ Opening Day center fielder and their go-to choice there over the season’s first couple months. Finally, on June 22, the Indians decided Martin’s rope had run out. They designated him for assignment after Martin hit .199/.276/.343 (61 wRC+) with minus-0.6 fWAR in 264 trips to the plate.

The cutting of Martin, who’s now playing in Japan, officially opened the door for Mercado to assume the outfield’s most important position. Aside from a couple days in which Greg Allen has started at the position, it has belonged to Mercado almost exclusively. Overall, Mercado has been remarkably consistent. His wRC+ by month: 119 in May, 118 in June, 114 in July. The righty’s wRC+ against same-handed pitchers: 119. His wRC+ against lefties: 115.

If you’re looking for negatives, it’s obvious there is some good fortune propping up Mercado’s output. Although Mercado’s one of the game’s fastest players, a .335 batting average on balls in play could be difficult to uphold. And while Mercado’s only striking out at a 17.6 percent clip, he’s walking just 5.6 percent of the time. Statcast, meanwhile, paints somewhat of a bleak picture in regards to his production, placing Mercado in the league’s 39th percentile or worse in expected weighted on-base average (.322, compared to a .357 real wOBA), expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Even if Mercado regresses toward his xwOBA as the season moves along, he’d still qualify as an easy upgrade over Martin, who posted a .270 wOBA before the Tribe cut him. Thanks in part to what Mercado has done so far, the Indians’ outfield hasn’t been the massive question mark it was at the outset of the season. The Indians, set to begin life without Michael Brantley then, ran out an Opening Day outfield of Martin, Jake Bauers in left and Tyler Naquin in right. They’re now going with Mercado, a Bauers/Jordan Luplow platoon in left and Naquin at his season-opening spot on a regular basis.

Bauers has recently put up much better offensive totals than he did during a disastrous May; the righty-swinging Luplow has been a force against lefties throughout 2019; and Naquin has come back well from a pair of lost seasons at the MLB level. However, of the Indians’ main outfielders, it’s Mercado who has been their best. The rookie has played an important role in saving Cleveland’s season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers Outright Rocky Gale

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The Dodgers have outrighted catcher Rocky Gale off the 40-man roster, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets. The move drops the club’s 40-man roster to a total of 38 players.

Gale, 31, went 2-for-15 in a brief stint with the Dodgers earlier this season but has spent the bulk of the season in Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he’s batted .250/.303/.370 in 109 plate appearances. He’s spent the season as the primary backup to top catching prospect Will Smith in Triple-A, but the recent promotion of fellow top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz to Oklahoma City has further reduced Gale’s role on the roster.

Gale has appeared in 22 big league games between the Padres and Dodgers, though he’s received just 37 plate appearances in that time (and hit .108/.108/.189). The former ninth-round pick is a lifetime .277/.315/.359 in parts of nine Triple-A seasons.

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