With a couple weeks left in the regular season, 108 players have already hit at least 20 home runs, and several more figure to join the group before the year’s out. We all know it’s a homer-happy game these days, but even if you’re capable of launching the ball over the fence on a consistent basis, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a valuable player. Seventeen of the sport’s 20-HR hitters have posted 1.0 fWAR or worse so far this year, setting them up to end the season as below-average players by that metric. Say what you will about fWAR, but it’s generally able to pinpoint who is and isn’t particularly useful to his team’s cause. With that said, let’s take a look at this year’s least valuable sluggers as the campaign nears its end…
Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins (HRs: 28; fWAR: 1.0)
- While Rosario has seldom been a big on-base threat since his career started in 2015, this year’s .299 OBP is the second-worst mark of his career and has helped tamp down his value. Despite a .276 average and a .491 slugging percentage, Rosario has managed a so-so 101 wRC+ to this point. Thanks to that and below-average defense (minus-4 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR), Rosario’s smack dab between average and replacement level this season.
Jay Bruce, OF, Phillies (HRs: 25; fWAR: 1.0)
- In fairness to Bruce, injuries have limited him to just 314 plate appearance this year, making his home run amount all the more impressive. Still, between Seattle and Philly, Bruce has put up another unspectacular season in a growing line of them. He’s a .227/.274/.543 hitter with a 106 wRC+, though the long-panned outfielder has accounted for 2 DRS and a 0.8 UZR in the corners.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Indians (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.8)
- The 28-year-old Puig has stumbled through one of the worst seasons of his career, which obviously isn’t what he had in mind for a platform campaign. The pending free agent and longtime Dodger has slashed a middling .255/.315/.455 over 555 trips to the plate between the Reds and Indians. Puig’s still a good outfielder (4 DRS, 0.4 UZR), but above-average offense has been his calling card for most of his time in the bigs. His decline in output at the plate this season has likely cost him a solid amount of money.
Franmil Reyes, OF, Indians (HRs: 34; fWAR: 0.8)
- The 24-year-old Reyes joined the Indians last month in the same trade as Puig, but the results haven’t been stellar in either case. Although Reyes has a shot at 40 homers, his .250/.313/.516 line (109 wRC+) isn’t great, especially for a DH. Reyes still has another two years left before he hits arbitration, though, so it’s doubtful the Indians will grow tired of him in the immediate future.
Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.8)
- Jimenez hasn’t made the type of star-caliber impact the White Sox may have wanted immediately from the hyped 22-year-old, but most players his age are still in the minors. A league-average batting line (101 wRC+; .249/.297/.473 in 437 PA) with 25 dingers isn’t anything to scoff at for a rookie. But it’s up in the air whether Jimenez will evolve into a viable outfielder. He has accounted for minus-11 DRS with a minus-4.6 UZR thus far.
Ryan McMahon, INF, Rockies (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.7)
- As with Jimenez, the fact that McMahon’s not off to a dazzling start doesn’t mean he won’t morph into an indispensable long-term piece for Colorado. The 24-year-old McMahon has fared respectably at three positions, mostly second base, while slashing .258/.338/.455 (91 wRC+) in his first full season in the league.
Renato Nunez, DH/1B, Orioles (HRs: 29; fWAR: 0.7)
- Let’s say this for Nunez: He’s much more successful than the vast majority of waiver pickups. Nunez has at least turned into a passable hitter since the Orioles claimed him off the scrapheap from the Rangers in May 2018. However, for a DH, more is needed than the .251/.314/.471 showing (102 wRC+) that Nunez has given the rebuilding Orioles in 547 plate appearances this season. The O’s are in the process of trying to find long-term building blocks, and the 25-year-old Nunez hasn’t really established himself as one yet, homers aside.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.5)
- Hernandez’s aggregate production has been far from excellent this season, but the 26-year-old has trended upward since a horrid stretch from April through June. Overall, Hernandez – who’s trying to prove to the Blue Jays he’s a long-term cog – has batted .215/.292/.436 with an 89 wRC+ and subpar defense (minus-5 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR). Offensively, if the powerful Hernandez is ever going to be a significant asset, he’ll have to slash his strikeouts. He has fanned in 33-plus percent of PA this season, continuing a K-happy career that began in 2016.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Twins (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.4)
- The Rays non-tendered Cron last offseason after a 30-homer campaign, and early this year, he looked like one of the best buy-low pickups of the winter. Cron stormed out of the gates after joining the Twins for $4.8MM, but he has slowed down considerably since then. Cron has only batted .254/.315/.478 (104 wRC+) in 470 PA, which could again make him a non-tender candidate during the upcoming winter as he gears up for his final trip through arbitration.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.3)
- The five-year, $52MM extension the Blue Jays handed Grichuk before the season isn’t looking like a particularly shrewd investment at the moment. Never known for getting on base, the .281 OBP the 25-year-old has put up thus far is the lowest he has ever recorded over a full season. In all, Grichuk’s just a .230/.281/.437 hitter, giving him a woeful 85 wRC+. It hasn’t been a case of bad luck, according to Statcast, which credits Grichuk with a .296 expected weighted on-base average that falls shy of his real wOBA (.305).
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.3)
- With three Jays on this list, maybe it’s no surprise the rebuilding club’s among the majors’ worst teams. Unlike Grichuk, though, Smoak is something of a Statcast darling. The soon-to-be free agent’s .212/.349/.406 line and 104 wRC+ through 464 PA aren’t anything special for a first baseman, but his .372 xwOBA (compared to a .332 wOBA) is one of the highest in the sport.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.2)
- The Padres’ decision to hand Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee before the 2018 season continues to look rather questionable. The former Royal logged weak production a year ago, and though Hosmer has improved this season, the results aren’t nearly good enough for the money he’s making or the offense-driven position he plays. The grounder-hitting Hosmer’s .280/.327/.443 line in 603 PA has amounted to a 95 wRC+. He has given the Padres 0.0 fWAR over 1,280 PA since signing his franchise-record contract.
Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.2)
- Santana’s offensive output has tanked in the second half, though ongoing elbow problems have surely contributed to his late-season decline. The Mariners will hope Santana will look more like the player who registered a 127 wRC+ in the first half of 2019, not the one who has limped to a dismal 36 wRC+ since, when next season rolls around. Regardless, Santana’s defense may continue to be a major concern. With minus-15 DRS and a minus-16.0 UZR, he has been one of the worst outfielders in the game this year.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.1)
- Although this is the third season with at least 20 homers for the 25-year-old Odor, the Rangers are understandably growing frustrated with his inconsistency. Odor has alternated between valuable and valueless since he came on the scene in 2014. Unfortunately for Texas, Odor has been closer to the latter this season. He has gone down on strikes a personal-worst 30.4 percent of the time en route to an ugly line of .203/.283/.421 (73 wRC+) in 517 trips to the plate.
Matt Adams, 1B, Nationals (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.0)
- The 31-year-old Adams has only managed a .226/.277/.476 line with a wRC+ of 86, thanks in part to a career-high strikeout percentage (34.3). The lefty-hitting Adams has continued to struggle against same-handed pitchers in the process, making it look all the more likely the Nationals will buy him out for $1MM in lieu of exercising a $4MM option after the season.
Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Angels (HRs: 22; fWAR: minus-0.1)
- Pujols hit the 655th homer of his career Monday, leaving him just five shy of tying the legendary Willie Mays for fifth on the all-time list. Needless to say, the 39-year-old Pujols is one of the greatest players who has ever lived. That said, his years-long decline has continued in 2019 – the eighth season of a 10-year, $240MM contract that hasn’t gone to the Angels’ liking. Pujols, with his .251/.311/.448 line and inability to contribute as a defender or base runner, is on track for a second straight season of below-replacement-level production.
Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (HRs: 20; fWAR: minus-1.1)
- This has been a disastrous season for the man known as Khrush, whom the low-budget Athletics awarded a two-year, $33.5MM extension before the campaign. Davis was coming off his third straight season of 40-plus home runs (and fourth consecutive campaign with a .247 average) at that point. But injuries have helped limit Davis to a horrid .220/.287/.383 line with a 78 wRC+ through 474 PA in 2019. That’s obviously not going to cut it for someone whose bat determines whether he’s valuable.
Really unfair to include Eloy here, even though you do mention most players his age are in the minors, which is true, and also why he shouldn’t have been included to begin with.
It would have been unfair not include Eloy. Whether he’s 22 or not is irrelevant…they are all playing the same game. The article clearly states that these are the 17 players with 20+ homers and a fWAR of less than 1.0. If he had 19 homers he wouldn’t be on this list. He just happened to fit the parameters. No big deal.
If anyone deserves to be on this list for the White Sox it should be Palka or Alonso. But I guess they don’t make the cut again.
Not arguing your point but Jimenez has missed 37 games due to two stints on the IL and a shorter one for bereavement. This lack of game time has negatively impacted his fWAR. As a rookie in particular, it is difficult to maintain any sort of hitting rhythm when you are also seeing MLB pitching for the first time. Surely Jimenez would have 30+ HR’s at this point in time to say nothing of his RBI total.
As I complete this post, Jimenez just had his second consecutive 4 RBI game, hitting a 3-run jack on the heels of Tuesday’s grand slam. He now stands at 26 HR’s on the season with 66 RBI’s and pushed his BA up to .251.
The White Sox still have 17 more games remaining. With Jimenez currently in a groove he just might exceed 30 HR’s anyway while approaching the 80 RBI mark. His fWAR figures to increase as well. These numbers are not too shabby for a rookie who will have missed nearly a quarter of his debut season.
Consider the tribulations that Yoan Moncada endured in his first full season with the White Sox last year and how he rebounded as a sophomore. Jimenez is an equally smart hitter and perhaps even more talented with the bat. It would surprise few White Sox fans if Jimenez produces MVP caliber numbers in 2020 with the addition of two more highly touted bats next season in Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal who can also create havoc on the base paths along with mainstays Moncada and Tim Anderson. Slugger Jose Abreu will likely return with an extension while the front office also targets an impacting left-handed bat this offseason. There figures to be plenty of fireworks on the southside next season and even more in 2021 when Andrew Vaughn joins the party.
Per Jordan Lazowski on twitter following last night’s game:
According to Chris Kamka, Eloy Jimenez is the first White Sox player since Alexei Ramirez in 2008 (over 11 years ago) with consecutive 4-RBI games. He is also the youngest Sox player since RBI became an official stat in 1920 to accomplish this feat.
You sound like an overly optimistic Cubs’ fan.
“Our prospects are all going to be HOFers and nobody’s going to regress.”
WAR is as flawed a stat as the sky is blue.
I agree WAR is overrated. You have a guy hitting 260 with 25 HR’s and 90 RBI’s don’t understand how those can be dismissed. Mind boggling.
Well RBI’s are absolute garbage, Average doesn’t show power, and HR is worthless with the juiced ball
Hard to score runs without RBIs, dude. Why would it matter if batting average doesn’t show power if home runs are worthless?
RBI are a team stat. you can be the best hitter in the world but not get a lot of RBI if guys in front of you don’t get on
A thing called doubles. You may have heard of them
It’s also hard to score runs if batters in front of you cant get on base.
HR aren’t worthless even with the juiced ball, just the baseline has shifted. 20 HR used to be a plus, now it is basically average so having 20 HR only means you are a 100 OPS+ guy if everything else is average too while maybe 10 years ago that guy had a 108 OPS+ or so.
Power still has the same value, just the baseline is different and you need to be over 30 to be in the plus.
And a first baseman/DH/bad leftfielder like most of those guys really needs a 110 OPS+ to be even average so a 250/320 guy with 30 bombs is barely average these days.
HR aren’t worthless even with the juiced ball, just the baseline has shifted. 20 HR used to be a plus, now it is basically average so having 20 HR only means you are a 100 OPS+ guy if everything else is average too while maybe 10 years ago that guy had a 108 OPS+ or so.
Power still has the same value, just the baseline is different and you need to be over 30 to be in the plus.
And a first baseman/DH/bad leftfielder like most of those guys really needs a 110 OPS+ to be even average so a 250/320 guy with 30 bombs is barely average these days.
If you don’t understand then educate yourself and read up on it, you can get literature on it on nearly any site that talks about baseball.
If you had a lineup entirely of CJ Crons, it would be pretty bad. Sure, you’d hit it over the fence often, but when you struggle to get on base, don’t add value baserunning, and give up a lot of that value back on the defensive side, it doesn’t move the needle.
WAR isn’t a perfect stat (I don’t even know if there’s one at all), but it takes everything into account. Just because you can mash, it doesn’t make you valuable.
…And if you get on-base and can’t hit you will strand runners every single inning and never score. There is a place for RBIs. The stat still matters. Every team needs a guy to drive in that important run rather than strike out or walk with a base open to put on the force play or double play with less than 2 out.
RBIs is garbage. On a team like Detroit, if they had Mike Trout he would only have like 75-95 RBIs because no one gets on ahead of him when he hits homers
Yea, and that’s why it’s better to look at stats like BA with RISP/BA with 2 outs and RISP. Do you think Cody Bellinger has a better chance getting 100 RBI’s in the Dodges’ lineup, or Orioles lineup?
If counting stats don’t matter….shouldn’t Trout’s WAR be the same as it is now no matter what team he plays for??? Also, please explain to me what “replacement player” even means? Is it any minor league player or what??? Give me an example…what are the baseline numbers for a “replacement player”??? And don’t try and be cute and say a 0.0 WAR!!! I want real world stats so I can visualize this so called “replacement player”!!!!
It’s flawed, but still very valuable.
It really isn’t, it’s a counting stat. It all depends on how important you think defense is when comparing the value of it with offense. If you absolutely hate all defensive metrics, then I agree with you, WAR isn’t a thing you should look at. Problem is VORP is also flawed and DWS is too. WAR is the least flawed of the “overall player rating” style stats, despite what you claim here.
How do you know that??? Ever try to “validate” a player’s WAR?? You can’t!!! You have to rely on whomever is doing the WAR calculation that it is correct!!!
i just cant get behind a stat that says Eddie Rosario wss barely worth one win this year. in my mind, that instance alone proves its beyond just a bit flawed.
bWAR is better
fWAR is better. Offense is more valuable that defense
No champion teams have ever been all-bat no-glove though. In fact there’s been many all-glove no-bat teams that have won the title, 2015 KC comes to mind. So…no, you’re wrong.
You haven’t proven him wrong you’ve just stated the obvious which is that good pitching and good defense has value to.
War, what is it Good For – Tolstoy
NNNNNNEEEEEERRRRRRRDDDDDSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!
Pujols is exhibit a on why not to sign sign one dimensional sluggers
No, you just don’t sign a position player for more than 1 year past age 38.
Did you just try to summarize pre-angels Pujols, who in ten years with the cards finished top 3 in MVP voting 8 times, struck out more than walked once, hit over 400 home runs, hit less than .327 twice, and was on a clear trajectory to.becoming one of if not the single greatest batter of all time, as a one-dimensional slugger?
No, 1B isn’t a center-fielder or catcher but you’re selling him just a little short
Don’t forget about his defense. One of the best defensive corner infielders in the game in his prime.
While many points made in this post are good, this is not a good post. Very un-MLBTR-like. More than anything this post proves the imperfection of the advanced statistics (though still useful), not that these hitters aren’t valuable.
I’m just floored that there are three players ranked worse than Odor.
Doesn’t look like a ranking to me, just a list. Sorry.
It’s in order from most- to least valuable. Calling it a ranking isn’t necessarily wrong.
When I saw the headline, I was expecting to see guys like Aaron Altherr, not guys with 20+ HRs.
How can someone have a fWAR of zero ? (Matt adams) lol
Actually WAR is presided by the fact that any AAA scrub type/borderline MLBer can have a WAR of 0.0, so yeah, all of AAA can have a fWAR of zero, that’s a lot of players!
Hosmer has to hurt the worst on this list so much money left
Pujols has a lot
Is anyone interested in doing a dynasty fantasy league next year I’m looking for people
How about just forget all the stupid goofy stats, and instead just enjoy the damn game.
‘All the stupid goofy stats’ are how some people enjoy the game. Sorry it’s different from how you enjoy it, Gramps.
What does age have to do with enjoying the game? He’s making a general statement that some people are over analyzing statistics instead of just appreciating the skills needed to play the game.
Thank you.
Why do we just have to appreciate one or the other? I think most of us appreciate both, but we just talk about stats more often. It doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the physical test all MLB players put their bodies through, and the skills they need to even be noticed by big league teams.
This is so stupid, every guy on this list has over 20 homeruns, you mean to tell me hitting 20 homeruns in the major leagues doesn’t count for anything anymore,? That’s called production.
You haven’t noticed that everyone is hitting 20 hr’s this year? It’s September 11th and a new MLB HR record was set tonight.
What if I got 500 ABs and hit 20 HR and popped out the other 480 times? It’d be potentially the worst season in baseball history and not productive.
Your manager and hitting coach should be fired for continuing to send you up there after the 200th pop out or so.
I mean, yea not really. 20 home runs isn’t that valuable anymore when you already have more than 100 players who will finish with at least 20 home runs this year.
That sounds impressive until you realize that every single position player to have a minimum of one at bat this season has at least 15 home runs.
Murphi, it’s not stupid at all—the article clearly states that there are 17 players with at least 20 homers and a war 1 or less. Tomorrow they might write an article about players with 30 homers and a war of 2 or less. Or tomorrow we may get an article about players with less than 10 homers and a war of 4 or better. They simply set parameters for the article.
WAR, huh, yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.
What is strange to me is how they go back and assign WAR to players from the distant past. If defense is a big part of the number, how can you tell how good a player was if there is no record of the game. The answer is, they just made it up. It’s all just made up.
People may not like RBIs, BA, and Wins anymore, but at least those stats are based on an actual event that happens on the field. Everyone knows how they are calculated and they are always the same. When you start adding made up numbers like “positional adjustment” because someone decided that it isn’t important to b a first baseman anymore. Or when someone makes up stats that the “average minor leaguer” should get. It just all becomes a joke. Because no one is going to calculate them the same anymore.
I’ll be the first to say that if anyone ever comes up with a STANDARD stat that all-encompassing, then I will be all for it. But when you have as many different formulas as you have websites made by people trying to get their PhD in statistics, it all becomes muddled at best.
Say it again…
I just don’t understand why a DH is penalized by WAR for not playing the field. How does he hurt his team by NOT being out on the field and NOT making errors? It just sounds illogical!
This whole season is just ridiculously stupid to me… Obviously the ball was messed with, it’s either a homerun a walk or a strike out, very disappointing baseball, you’re right, everybody hits 15-20 homeruns… So unless you had and 50 this year you’re a below average player… I definitely get it.
I find it hard to believe that an average minor leaguer would pit up the same stats. Thats the part that seems flawed with WAR. Wouldn’t you jave to wait until after the season to know what an average minor leaguer would be for this season? Also, does it subtract out the stats they put up in the minors once the become major league players? The top prospects are going to mash AAA until they’re called up in June. Those statistics shouldn’t count as part of the average. Those guys are only there for an additional year of control in most cases.
A lot of Bluejays on that list
Impressive isn’t it?
Would argue that Ryan McMahon should not be on this list. Truly believe we’re looking at a 30+ HR guy with a decent BA if the Rox would just commit to him at one position, write his name on the line up card each day and leave him alone. Not sure that’s gonna happen in 2020 as there seems to be hesitancy on the part of Rox management. But with Murphy not returning, I’d play McMahon at 1B next year and leave him there.
Also, though difficult to do considering the money he’s still owed, I’d try to find a way and say goodbye to Ian Desmond. He’s been a big disappointment since Rox gave him that 5-year deal worth $75 million. Rox need to play Tapia every day in 2020 until he proves he’s unworthy of that.