The elite class of free agents – those capable of landing significant multiyear contracts – has shrunk to almost nothing since the market opened at the beginning of November. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, who could wind up with a contract in the $80MM vicinity (if not more) before next season begins, stands out as by far the No. 1 player available. For the most part, impact players without teams are a lot harder to find thereafter, though there are a couple other hitters who should join Donaldson in cashing in during the coming weeks.
Outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna entered the offseason as two of the top outfielders sans contracts. Almost two months later, they’re still looking for jobs. At the outset of the winter, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $58MM guarantee for Castellanos and a three-year, $45MM guarantee for Ozuna. Several teams have been connected to the two since, but neither player has found an offer to his liking. Now, it’s worth wondering who’s the more desirable player of the pair.
Castellanos, who will turn 28 in March, broke out with the Tigers in 2016 and has been a well-above-average offensive player since. During that four-year, 2,454-plate appearance span spent with the Tigers and Cubs, Castellanos slashed .286/.336/.504 with 94 home runs, a 6.5 percent walk rate and a 22.3 percent strikeout rate en route to a 121 wRC+ (meaning his production came in 21 percent above the average hitter’s) and 9.7 fWAR.
As has been covered time and again, Castellanos’ defensive limitations have somewhat offset his work at the plate. Castellanos couldn’t hack it at third base, which led the Tigers to move him to right field late in 2017. He has also endured no shortage of troubles in the outfield, having accounted for minus-35 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-25.7 Ultimate Zone. Although Castellanos did show some improvement last season, he still stumbled to a minus-9 DRS with a minus-5.2 UZR. So, if you’re adding him to your team, you’re probably not expecting much in the field.
On the other hand, DRS (plus-28) and UZR (plus-28.3) have given high marks to Ozuna in the outfield (primarily left) since his career began with the Marlins in 2013. Dating back to then, Ozuna has batted .273/.329/.455 with 148 homers (112 wRC+), a 21 percent strikeout rate against a 7.5 walk percentage, and 20.3 fWAR over 3,861 trips to the plate divided between Miami and St. Louis.
The 29-year-old Ozuna has been a more valuable player overall than Castellanos, though the latter has closed the gap in the past couple years. Castellanos was clearly the more productive batter in that span, as his 126 wRC+ trumped Ozuna’s 108 mark. But both players have been perennial Statcast favorites, evidenced in part by Castellanos’ .364 expected weighted on-base average and Ozuna’s even better .382 figure from 2019.
Bottom-line production aside, Castellanos and Ozuna have shown themselves to be pretty durable throughout their careers. Since his first full year in 2014, Castellanos has put up seasons of 148 games or more five times (including 151 in 2019). While Ozuna did miss 32 games because of broken fingers last season, he does have four years of 148-plus games on his resume.
Castellanos and Ozuna have looked similarly valuable of late, though the comparison between the two is admittedly imperfect. After all, they do line up at different positions, and Castellanos – unlike Ozuna – had the benefit of reaching free agency without a qualifying offer hanging over his head. Still, as the two top outfielders on the market, it at least makes some sense to group Castellanos and Ozuna together. Which player would you rather sign?
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No range vs no arm…
Where’s the option for neither?
Corey Dickerson would like a word here…..
He’s bounced around too much to get comfortable, and will provide similar production at a fraction of the cost.
Couldn’t agree more. I’m surprised he’s not getting more attention this offseason.
He will…..once those other 2 guys sign (or get close to signing)
He’s waiting for them to “set the bar”.
…..then he’ll jump on a team.
I’m thinking 2/17 or 3/25 would do it
He Wants To Play…..and he shall…….LOL
Dickerson signs with Miami…..
2/$17.5 Mil
Probably couldn’t go wrong with either player. Could we see them taking a one year deal, then hitting the market again next year? Nick’s value probably is at a peak, after his blazing Cub second half.
I agree I think castellanos is probably coming off what might be his best career season and things might not really go up from there. whereas I think Ozuna has the ability to return closer to the form that saw him hit 37 HRs a couple of seasons ago and thus makes him the more appealing player to sign long term. But I do think either could sign a 1-year deal and try to reestablish themselves better for next off-season as well
Highly doubtful on the 1 year thing. This isn’t a case where they play a position that’s trying to establish a benchmark (like Grandal did last year) or rehabbing (like Didi) they’re above average bats at premium positions. And they’re going to demand at least 3 year deals that pay them like it.
Another factor is taking advantage of being the top options on the market, rather than play a distant 3rd fiddle to Mookie and Springer next year.
Trades could take Mookie and Springer off the market next year.
Why would trades affect the fact that they only have 1 year left until free agency? Betts has already said he’s testing the market and Springer would be a fool not to unless Houston throws 400 mil at him. Which Houston’s proven that they don’t do. And they’re certainly not trading him when they’re trying to get back to the WS.
Dbird777, Springer for 400 milion?!
Is Scott Boras his agent and do you work for him? Very good player, yes. 4-5 years at at 100-1250 million deal would be an overpay for the last year. 400 for what we could only assume would be 12-14 years taking him to age 41-43. Bwahahahahah!
excellent comment Dbird777. with Boras as his agent, Springer will ask for 100 million for himself and another 300 million for his massive Ego.
Third fiddle might not be a bad thing depending on the global need as Mookie and Springer will bring up others with upside (Castellanos, not Ozuna in my view) sort of like Wheeler benefiting this year.
“they’re above average bats at premium positions”
Premium positions, eh?
I’ll be interesting to see what sort of contracts are served to Houston batters once they become FA Considering the cheating scandal that we are all familiar with, one has to imagine that the performance numbers have skewed the realistic productivity of said players.
They would also have other FA players in their class to compete against such as Joc Pederson.
Career OPS of Astros players on the ROAD.
BREGMAN .946
Springer .875.
Altuve .826.
Correa .834.
All good to very good hitters whether you or anyone thinks they are “cheating” or not.
Bregman and Altuve signed thru 2024.
Houston’s payroll is almost at the penalty point. Don’t slam the Astros about not paying its players.
Premium positions? You have to try really hard to hide either one of them on the field….really hard.
If they are so good, why did they have to cheat????
They dont look at it as “re-establishing” quite as lightly as you may think- Its all about guaranteed years with fellas from this ilk…both should have no problem getting 3 yrs and both will do just that- They have always known their market would be in January from jump
@Jeff Zanghi
What makes you think Ozuna can reproduce the 37 hr season he had? That season is BY FAR an outlier and he is more consistently a 25 he guy at best. Even this season with the record number of hrs flying out of the ballpark he couldn’t surpass 30.
The year he hit 37 hrs he batted .312. His next closest season he hit .280 and that was also the ONLY season he had an OPS over .800
Ozuna should have accepted the qualifying offer.
He would be hitting behind freeman
He is NOT the guy I want hitting behind Freeman! They might as well just go with Markakis again or Riley then go with Ozuna.
Depends on the team’s needs as for Castellanos. I’m not an Ozuna fan so I’d pass on him unless it was a one year deal with incentives. Clearly he can do better than that. As for Castellanos, if I was the Red Sox I would consider him for his offense if trades created an outfield opening. My thinking is playing again with JDM who he learned from will be a great benefit. He’s the real deal with the stick. His numbers are consistent the last three years. Also depends on price as I would pay on his body of work, not his Cubs’ stats.
I don’t think either will bite on a one-year deal.
Ozuna could have stayed and gotten a 1-year $17 million contract with the Cardinals. Now he has a draft pick attached to him so no team wants to eat that on a one-year rental. I bet he is looking for four years which is why he hasn’t signed yet. He’s been too inconsistent to commit that long for.
Castellanos has Boras as his agent and probably has been tossing out $90 million, which teams don’t want to pay for a poor defensive player.
Cancel everything In wrote at or near $90m for Castellanos. I was thinking four x $14m. His defensive liabilities and again on his body of work, he’s good with the stick but not great. If Boras expects a team to pay on his two months with the Cubs, he might be unsigned when the season opens. Ozuna will probably end up taking one year for $18.2m and stay with the Cards for one more year and Hope next year’s deals for Mookie and Springer bring up all outfielders offers.
I feel like I’d rather have Puig on a shorter commitment than either of these guys.
Fun fact: After July 15th, Puig had a grand total of 2 HR’s.
And I would still prefer him to Ozuna or Castellanos.
Puig is sitting around 260 right now. He’s quickly becoming to big to roam the outfield with any efficiency.
And yet he’s still better than Castellanos out there.
I know we aren’t resorting to discrimination because of weight! I’m sure Puig can tote 260 better than you can your 140.
He still had a 28.2 feet/second sprint speed last season, so he can move pretty well for his size.
True, but Puig hit .297/.377/.423, 112 wRC+, with 15 doubles and a triple with Cleveland to go along with those 2 HR’s. He will cost less to sign, is better defensively than Castellanos and does not have QO like Ozuna. However, he could be a headache.
Migraine if not a cluster. Imitrix prescriptions for the manager and GM.
I wonder how much of a defensive value would add if they threw Castellanos in left and not in right field. If you want to hide defense, left field it be.
Still think he needs to be played at 1st. Coming from a Tigers fan
I really don’t understand how playing left field vs right field can hide someone’s lack of defensive skill. Someone hits the ball, you rub toward the spot, you catch it (or if you’re bad at it, you misread the ball). Not sure how the translates more to one field than another.
It’s more the arm than what you’re talking about. Typically the fast guy plays center, the guy with the arm plays right. That’s why folks assume the LF is the “worst” defensively.
I played OF. It’s a comfort level with picking up the flight of the ball. RH pull hitters/LH slice was comfortable for me so I enjoyed LF. I was okay with CF too, but RF messed me up.
It would come down to team need ultimately, but I would take Castellanos for the offensive boost over Ozuna.
Gimme Ozuna. He can get on, get over, and isn’t a defensive liability. I don’t think it’s that close unless you’re an AL team that’s gonna allow Castellanos to DH half the time. Fielding is underrated.
@Sam
Ozuna is a liability in the OF…Did you not see him climb the fence to only have to jump off on his stomach for a ball that should have been a routine flyball?
I pick Puig as the winner
Corey Dickerson is the best value outfielder left on the market. He had a .900 OPS last season while hitting 12 HRs and 28 doubles in 260 ABs. That is slightly more than half a season worth of ABs. In 2018, he won a gold glove so he has defensive value as well. No qualifying offer attached. Left handed bat. Hands down the better deal in my opinion.
dazed….260 AB’s is probably “less than 1/2 season” if he has a regular gig and bats in the top 5 spots. Splitting hairs a bit, but we still agree that he’s….
…… the “Best Available Bat For The Money”.
He’ll probably sign for 2/$17 mil or 3/$25 mil
162 Game Avg.
608 PA’s
567 AB’s
78 R
162 H
40 2B
6 3B
24 HR
77 RBI
5 SB
35 BB
129 K
Slash .286/.328/.504./832
(Baseball-Reference)
My cubbies need Dickerson .
Minny is dropping the ball huge here on Donaldson – They literally have the best payroll flexibility in Mlb, have a division up for grabs, and have a hard time attracting any big name free agents when the actions hot-
To me its not a gamble taking on Donaldson right now its a gamble to NOT
Throw the number at him to get it done 4/96 and steadily work that SP up the next 2 years- That pen is young cheap and nasty already-
I
I actually have a hard time preferring one over the other off the top of my head/eye test. So, let’s turn to Statcast!
Exit Velocity: 91.8mph(93rd percentile) for Ozuna vs 89mph(49th percentile) for Castellanos
Hard Hit%: 49.2%(96th percentile) for Ozuna vs. 41.4%(65th percentile) for Castellanos
xWOBA: .382 xWOBA(92nd percentile) for Ozuna vs .364 xWOBA(85th percentile) for Castellanos
Plate Discipline: Ozuna had a BB% of 11.2% last season, which shows a small glimmer of something more there. Castellanos has never exceed 7.2%. Ozuna only chased 27.6% of pitches out of the zone vs Castellanos’s 38.4%.
Defense: Both are awful, but Ozuna hasn’t been an utter disaster like Castellanos.
Overall, I prefer Ozuna. Both players should see a good deal of time at DH in 2020/2021 before finding a full time home there in year 3-4 of their deals. You need to be a truly elite hitter to be a solid full-time DH. With Ozuna, at least Statcast provides a glimmer of hope that their is an elite bat hiding in him somewhere that a team hopes some tweaks could find. With Castellanos, I think he has a good chance of actually being the better hitter, but without upside, you are kinda looking at an average player as a ceiling.
TLDR: In 100 timelines, Castellanos is probably the better hitter by a slight margin in 60% of them, but not worth the contract. In the 40% of which Ozuna is better, he is substantially better in 1/2 of them and possibly even worth his contract. Both options aren’t my favorite, but I’ll take the one that has a small chance of working out.
how hard hits the ball does not matter. where the ball lands does. this stats stuff can help but is also crazy at times. expected weighs more than actual and how gasta spin rate ot how hard a ball is hit is somehow if greater importance than the results. they could care less if the guy hit 200 as long as he some reslly hard.
Castellanos, in his second year playing OF, improved. Why can’t he be better in his 3rd season in the OF? If he signs with a team and plays LF he’d be a weapon with his rocket arm.
Ozuna’s trending backward defensively even if the metrics do not reflect that.
Castellanos does not have the QO. Edge to Nick.
I would say that based on last year but NC problem is got to be cost he is over valuing himself both players should take 1 year high incentive contracts and prove they can do it again.
It depends on the team, DMarcus. A younger squad would work as Castellanos can shift to DH after 30. As for Ozuna he brings nothing on D. No arm, awful routes, not exactly a speedster. He really should have accepted that QO.
I would at this point rather see the Braves sign Castellanos to a 4 year deal. Yes he was bad in the OF and the metrics say he is horrible but with Inciarte & Acuna in the OF with him & Pache coming up soon enough I feel him in LF would not be that big again a detriment. Plus it’s only his mobility out there it’s nothing to do with his arm which is a weapon out there.
Also if even by year 3 he is that far out gone as far as firlding goes and the DH has not yet been implemented in the NL then you could always deal him to an AL team. But he is young enough that for at least 2 years his offensive production should improve.
4years from now looking back I feel he is going to be the star of this FA class.
I highly doubt he’s signing a 4 year deal but you never know
Now that EE is off the board, I would really love to see the Blue Jays bring in Castellanos and slot him in the lineup behind the kids to drive them in. He’s still relatively youthful and should last their entire run of contention barring any breakdown. The defensive limitations are a bit of a worry, but I think you could really maximize his effectiveness or versatility by giving him a third of the season in the corners OF’s, 1B, and DH.
I don’t know. Rangers fan so we’re supposedly in the market, live in St louis and watched a lot of those at bats. Very hard hit when squared up, didn’t look like he was going to very often.and he didn’t often. I want nick. Tigers/cubs fans tell me otherwise.
He would be hitting behind freeman
Go Cubs Go
Stop already
As a Cubs fan admittedly bias, I voted Castellano because I saw the dugout and clubhouse influence he provided, gave the team a real spark albeit unsuccessfully. However I’d love to see the Cubs add either of these guys
Castellanos, Ozuna, and Dickerson are LFrs at best (and Castellanos is really more of a DH type). A lot of teams are already set at LF, as it is one of the easiest positions on the field to fill.
The Red Sox could use Castellanos in RF, moving Mookie to center. I bet Nick would set some doubles records hitting balls off the Green monster.
Yeah but Boston isn’t spending money this offseason, they’re trying to move it off.
Both Castellanos and Ozuna are represented by Boras who has controlled most of this offseason. He has worked his magic by getting record contracts for Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon. He also achieved much higher than projected contracts for Moustakas, Keuchel, and Ryu.
I think Boras May have ran out of luck with these two. He is most likely are trying to get elite money for two good to very good players. That may not happen.
Ozuna is no longer represented by Boras.
I’d rather have Dickerson, Shogo, even Puig because they’re better at defense and likely production for the money. These players seem better suited in the AL.
Extremely close vote as I post. When the polls close will the leading candidate be declared the winner or does MLBTR utilize an electoral college that could change the result?
Hate to respond to political comments …..but…..
– Football games aren’t won by “who gets the most yards from scrimmage”
– Baseball games aren’t won by “who gets the most hits”
– Hockey games aren’t won by “who has the most shots on goal”
– Basketball games aren’t won by the team “who’s Starters log the most minutes on the court”
Elections aren’t won by “who wins the popular vote”……..
Simple as that.
Lighten up pal. It was sarcasm and not a political statement.
That said, your analogy sucks. Elections in this country are won by popular vote aside from the US Presidential one.
Sarcasm?
Pretty sensitive subject to be posting on a baseball rumors site.
Maybe you should stick to baseball
How would anyone know you are being sarcastic? Political comments have no place here
Better Question is- How would anyone know hes NOT ?
As a brewers fan I was really hoping the cards resigned ozuna. That dude’s waistline will dictate he’s a DH by the end of a 4 year deal.
Castellanos is easily the better long term investment.