The market for starting pitchers has shrunk substantially since free agency opened at the beginning of November. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels have all found contracts. Jake Odorizzi, whom MLBTR ranked as the game’s 10th-best free agent at the outset of the winter, accepted a qualifying offer from Minnesota. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda and just picked up two more starters in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.
With all of those pitchers and several others (Kyle Gibson, Tanner Roark and Julio Teheran, to name some) off the board, it looks like a pretty bare-bones group at this point. So, if you’re still banking on finding a No. 1, 2 or 3 type of starter in free agency, you may be out of luck. Even a surefire No. 4 or 5 seems like a lot to ask right now, but there are at least a few unsigned starters with upside who won’t cost a bank-breaking amount to sign. Left-hander Alex Wood and righty Taijuan Walker are two examples.
Between Wood and Walker, the former wins this battle in a landslide as far as major league track record goes. The 28-year-old flew under the radar to some degree from 2013-18, an 803 1/3-inning stretch in which he combined for a sterling 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate with the Braves and Dodgers. Thanks to that run, the Reds acquired Wood last offseason with the expectation he’d give them front-line production. Instead, though, back problems limited the relatively soft-tossing Wood to seven starts and 35 2/3 frames of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP ball. Since then, there hasn’t been any reported interest on MLBTR’s pages in Wood, who has quickly gone from coveted starter to buy-low candidate.
Walker’s in a similar position – someone who could be a high-reward pickup at a reasonable cost. Now 27, Walker was an extremely hyped prospect with Seattle, which chose him 43rd overall in 2017. However, Walker didn’t prove to be irreplaceable to the Mariners over a fairly small sample of action, and they wound up trading him to the Diamondbacks in a late-2016 blockbuster.
Walker and his ~94 mph fastball were quite effective in his first season in Arizona – 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP with 8.35 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent grounder rate in 157 1/3 innings – but he has barely pitched since. He tossed 13 innings in 2018 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that May, and totaled just one frame last season (in the D-backs’ final game) after shoulder injuries stunted his TJS recovery. Arizona then cut Walker loose via non-tender instead of paying him a projected $5MM-plus in arbitration. Since then, at least one team – Walker’s old employer in Seattle – has shown interest in signing him.
Walker and Wood appear as if they’d be sensible additions for the Mariners or any other team that wants to take a back-of-the-rotation risk on a short-term deal. Odds are that neither player will secure a multiyear guarantee, though a one-season contract with a club option for 2021 could be a worthwhile gamble. Wood seems likely to rake in more money (MLBTR predicted he’d get a one-year, $8MM pact), but does that make him a better bet than Walker? Which of the two would you sign?
(Poll link for app users)
Which bounce-back candidate do you prefer?
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Alex Wood 56% (5,366)
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Taijuan Walker 44% (4,298)
Total votes: 9,664
If you buy into this kind of stuff, Walker was supposedly so nervous during the wild card game with AZ he couldn’t even watch. It clearly transitioned to his start the next game. Wood meanwhile pitched with ice in his veins at the games highest level. So a contender should go with Wood.
Did the Angels get a new GM yet?
I rarely criticize anyone for saying anything but this is boring, abusive spam. Do you really have nothing else to contribute? Get a life.
Wood pitched like dog crap last year. I’m not willing to just give him a pass for that. Teams have to be worried that his recent starts are the same they will be getting in 2020. If so, no team would want that in their rotation. This is a what have you done for me lately league.
Injury.
I’d rather pick up Aaron Sanchez on the cheap and let him recover before bringing him out as a nice back end option mid summer. The Tigers or Orioles would be way se to sign him and hope his debut tantalized someone to pick him up in a trade.
These guys have it great in MLB today. Look up Hall of Famer Pud Galvin 6000 innings pitched over 15 years and was rarely hurt. Took 60 years to get inducted in the HOF and the guy died poor.
Different game. Now a days guys are way more specialized and polished before getting into the show. It takes a higher level of discipline to keep up now a days.
Pud Galvin threw like 85 MPH. A lot less wear and tear than trying to sustain 94.
Additionally, Pud threw underhand. Overhand throwing was illegal the first five years of his career.
Wood could have ice in his veins, but he still has a bum shoulder and a delivery about as awkward as 13 year old asking out a homecoming queen.
It makes sense for the Pirates to sign one, or both, of these pitchers though Ray Searage is gone.
in your article it says mariners chose walker with 43rd pick in 2017, but traded him to diamondbacks in 2016 i know im nit picking but something doesnt ad up.
He was drafted in 2013 same year as Danny hultzen
Ah yes, Danny Hultzen, the guy they took when the whole world thought they should draft Anthony Rendon.
Did the whole world actually think they were going to take Rendon with the pick or is that just the narrative that’s being told now?
He was definitely projected to be picked by the mariners. I remember watching it and thinking we were going to pick him, then the analysts were pretty shocked we took Danny
“Hultzen is still young, plenty of time to become that dominant mlb starter!” – no one
Not for nothin he does have a 0.00 ERA in his MLB career
The Mariners were very weak offensively and in good shape for pitching. Yes, the whole world actually thought they SHOULD take Rendon, as I said. Jack Z thought Hultzen was a sure thing, even though he was projected as a middle of the rotation guy at best.
I also have a 0.00 ERA in my MLB career! Pretty sure that means squat
Go search the draft archives of Lookout Landing. You will see the exact moment that pick went from Rendon to Hultzen. Their reaction, 100000% glorious and worthy of praise, summed up the feelings of the fan base in that moment. It was an awful pick and the time and with the benefit of hindsight…what’s worse than “holy crap what were they thinking?”
Jack Z thought Ackley and Seager were 10-year studs and didn’t have a place to play Rendon. Jack Z was also an idiot.
Wood all day. Guy is underrated and could be a bargain now coming off a lost season. Walker hasn’t done anything for any sustained period of time to suggest he is worth relying on.
I suppose that 3 year stretch as a 22-24 year old from 2015-2017 wasn’t quite long enough for you. baseball-reference.com/players/w/walketa01.shtml?u…
Nope. He’s thrown 14 innings since and those three years aren’t any better than what Wood has done consistently before last season’s injury troubles.
Wood by a hair. feel more confident about his health and production floor.
I’d take my chances with whichever one will sign for a digit that begins with a “2.”
So you’d pay 1yr 20 million for these guys? Yikes!
I think he meant $200 million over a lot of years.
I’ll take Woods over Walker. Admittedly, I’ve seen more of Woods than Walker as a Braves fan. Still, when he’s right he’s got #2 maybe #3 type starter stuff and can be dominant. Injury history is a wash between the two with one coming off TJS and the other injury prone. As a buy low option near what Hill just got base wise it’s worth a shot on Woods.
Wood, Jerry. Wood
I signed on SPECIFICALLY to respond to this. That’s Gold Jerry! Gold!
p.s. Didn’t anyone get the feeling that Wood got that $9 mill one year contract at the beginning of 2019 and then “presto chango” he has a “bad back.” He got his money.
Wood has a pretty funky delivery. I’d worry about those back problems from last year popping up for the rest of his career. That being said, I’d be thrilled if the Giants signed either of these guys to a 1 year deal with a team option.
I agree with snot rocket.Go get ‘em!
If you are looking for something this year that may put you over the top… Wood. If you are looking for the future, sign Walker to a two year deal and a lower AAV than Wood.
So Wood puts you over the top, Mac?
Well of course. If you believe you are a couple games away from a wild card and your 5th and 6th starters are suspect, then of course someone who can give you 100+ innings and put up an ERA in the threes like 2016 and 2018. Replacing those innings can be huge. HUGE.
Case in point, if the Diamondbacks were replacing Clark and Godly’s innings with a Wood from 2016, or 2017, or 2018, maybe they are playing in October.
Why is that a difficult concept? Replacing negative WAR players, such as your 5th, 6th and 7th starters is a great way to add a few wins.
No and no, don’t be ridiculous!
I wouldn’t touch Wood with a 10 foot pole. His horrible mechanics have made his shoulder a ticking time bomb. Walker has good stuff but his injury happened right as it looked like he was putting it all together.
I think it’s quite possible both of these guys could come out and have great bounceback years. in fact I’m a bit surprised there hasn’t been more interest in either of them. Wood was a very productive pitcher for several years before injuries crippled his 2019 campaign and Walker has actually ‘never been bad’ despite being severely limited by injury the last two seasons. Having said that ‘never being bad’ is actually a really promising sign – it indicates at least to some extent that even though he has been limited by TJ (and other injuries) when he has been able to pitch he’s been good — so as long as he seems healthy you’d think someone would be willing to give him a shot. And both are relatively young so that should play into their favor as well. If the Red Sox wind up trading Price (or Eovaldi — or really even if they don’t) brining in one of these guys for depth at what figures to be a very affordable rate seems like a potential bargain they should be looking into.
how has a rebuilding team not gone in for one or both ?? if they hit on them you will get a top 100 prospect back easy
Because for the short term, you have a better chance of hitting on Wood who HAS done it recently.
ERA+ from 2016 to 2018. 122. Even if it’s 105 to 110 and you get 100 innings out of him. Giving those innings to wood rather than your typically 6th to 8th starters can be a huge deal.
I don’t understand why people don’t see this. The fact is, a team is going to have many many games started by their 6th through 8th starters.
It’s all about the financials. If Wood is 1Y/$8M like MLBTR projected, that’s a significant amount more per year than the typical players who occupy the 6-8 SP duties. Said differently there are replacements who make $550K a year, who are likely to do worse but not that much worse.
Super small sample size but his ERA+ last year was 79 with bad peripherals, so it’s also a risk whether or not he’ll even be better than whatever league minimum replacement a team has on hand.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely worth a flier, but I think it has to be a team that wants to compete that’s willing to do high risk/high reward. A Rich Hill type incentive laden contract also makes a ton of sense to me.
I would prefer Alex Wood but teams like the Mariners, Pirates, Orioles, and Tigers should be all in to sign one or both of them.
Haha all in? That’s classic. Even crappy free agents what to join a winning ballclub.
Not entirely true. These two want to rebuild value. They want to sign with a team that gives them the best shot of sticking in the rotation for the year and possibly let them shake the rust off. While I’m sure they would like a winning ball club that could provide that, that aspect is probably way down on the list.
Contenders can afford to give a pitcher time to work through rough patches while the teams mentioned can and definitely will if they think it can ultimately benefit them. Everyone wants to win, however players want playing time and a decent salary as well.
If I’m a pitcher looking for a longer leash I’d pick rebuilding team for sure. Not every game counts to them they are looking for you to either be trade bait or be an anchor after rebuild if they have an option on them and closer to contention. Usually trade bait
Wood was elite like at times… that’s why I’d pick him. Walker not so much
Date is wrong on when Walker was drafted
Angels should sign them both and hope they get 200 good innings out of the two combined.
(Insert “200 good innings out of 350 innings pitched” joke here)
Why havent the .Mariners signed walker….lottery nales no sense. Come on Jerry.
Drafted 43rd in 2017 but traded in blockbuster trade in 2016….haha
You clearly don’t believe in time travel do you. It’s real, it’s real.
If I was a contender looking to win it all, Wood would be the one to sign! The guy can dominate when healthy so signing him to be a #3-5 guy would be a no brainer! I hope the Yankees are reading this.
LOL yankees have no spots in the rotation to fill, in fact they have too many starters! Wood was pretty healthy when he pitched last year and it was no where near dominant! There’s a reason interest is low, you’re buying past success/recent failures.
I don’t think Wood will come close to getting 8mil. Probably half that with some performance incentives.
Wood to the Twins , Walker to Royals
Royals?? Nah. KC isn’t trying to win anytime soon. No need to block some young starters by taking a shot on a TJS reclamation project. Although it would be pretty slick if they could deal him at the deadline to a contender when they are 15 games out of first place but I doubt he would create enough value in that short time.
Try 25 games out
@moneyballer
Yes, rebuilding teams never sign reclamation project starting pitchers. It’s like the Royals didn’t sign Homer Bailey just last season.
You know what they say, moneyballer: “You say it best when you say nothing at all” Try to take those words to heart.
As a Dodger guy seen Wood pitch (live/tv) zillion times. Started great but developed” Yimi Garcia disease” and found too many bats (not just volume HR but crucial timing HR’s). Didnt think twice about his delivery when he was effective ( believed deception was a value added), but now i have pause…. hard to imagine a delivery more problematic for arm/back injury history.Inclined to stay away
Shouldn’t that be called “Clayton Kershaw disease?” Lawl
No it shouldn’t since he has a 2.44 career era doesn’t seem as if many bats are doing too great
Cool, I was speaking more of the “crucial timing HR’s” part of that post that happen in the playo….oh nevermind.
Angels have to take a chance on someone who at least used to be good at this point
I’m actually really hoping the Phillies take a shot on Walker.I like them both though…. Phillies take a shot on Walker,and then maybe they can find a way to get Marte and Haniger,and then they would’ve had every player from that trade,plus the guy the M’s designated to make the 3 for 2 swap.
Oh, I would get Wood! Read it how you may….
Neither, but that wasn’t an option in the poll. Written elsewhere is the observation that GMs now, pay for projected future performance, not past record. Both player’s have all past and no future. Dbacks declined Walker’s arbitration because they’ve seen his physicals on his arm and shoulder. Not good.
Brewers could seriously use more help. Their rag tag and cheap starting rotation is one of the worst in the NL. I think most fans were expecting much more than signing cast offs from Korea. Brewers cannot compete with Cincinati and St Louis pitching.
This is why red Sox have not traded a pitcher yet..yes will become desperate
… watch
They both need to sign somewhere first. Cubs should sign both. They need the pitching and they have the money. 2 years each. both with opt outs. 15-26 mil each. 7-13 mil aav
There’s no need to give these guys multi-year deals, especially not ones with opt-outs. They should get 1 year bounce back contracts, with AAVs significantly lower than what you’re talking about.