Archives for January 2020

AL Central Notes: Boyd, McCann, Twins

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2020 at 7:24am CDT

The Tigers and left-hander/persistent trade candidate Matthew Boyd agreed to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration on Friday, but Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press suggests that the two sides could yet discuss a lengthier pact. While it’s unlikely that the Scott Boras-represented Boyd would sign away any free-agent years, the two sides could discuss a deal that’d lock in his remaining arbitration years. That would provide the Tigers with cost certainty and create the potential for a relative bargain in the event that Boyd puts it all together after showing flashes of dominance in 2019 but struggling with home runs (as many of his peers did this past season). For Boyd, it’d protect him against an injury or notable decline prior to hitting the open market in the 2022-23 offseason — when he’ll be heading into his age-32 season.

Quick Hits: Turner, Pomeranz, Robert

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2020 at 9:47pm CDT

A pair of notable free agents joined new teams this afternoon. With those moves complete, we’ll round up a few more odds and ends from the weekend.

Nationals’ shortstop Trea Turner underwent surgery on his problematic index finger last November. Now, he’s primed to enter 2020 at full strength, he tells reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN). “I’ve started hitting. I can hit with 10 fingers, so it’s good,” Turner told reporters. As Zuckerman notes, Turner played almost all of the 2019 season with nine healthy fingers after fracturing the digit on a hit-by-pitch in the first week of April. The injury hardly seemed to hold him back, as Turner slashed .298/.353/.497 (117 wRC+) with 19 home runs and 35 stolen bases as Washington’s primary shortstop and leadoff hitter.
Drew Pomeranz had upwards of six offers this offseason, he tells Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Nevertheless, the Padres’ surprising decision to offer a four year deal, coupled with Pomeranz’s enjoyable experience in his prior stint in San Diego, inspired him to rejoin the Friars. As Sanders details, the 31-year-old is a much different pitcher than he was in 2016, when he earned his only All-Star appearance in San Diego. Pomeranz made a full-time move to the bullpen last season in San Francisco, and a velocity uptick and increased willingness to attack the strike zone helped him dominate following a midseason trade to the Brewers.
Following their extension last week, the White Sox have now invested over $100MM in Luis Robert before his major league debut, observes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. As Rosenthal explains, the Sox paid over $25MM in overage taxes while guaranteeing Robert $26MM as an amateur under the prior international spending rules. (Spending on international amateurs was hard capped following the 2016-17 signing period, so deals like Robert’s are no longer permissible). Nevertheless, Rosenthal argues, the extension makes perfect sense for the White Sox. Not only does it grant Chicago an extra season of team control, it creates a ceiling for Robert’s earnings in arbitration, he points out. While Robert was wise to secure the guarantee, Rosenthal opines, the agreement serves as the latest reminder that MLB’s economic landscape drastically underpays players at the beginnings of their careers, when they are likely to be their most productive. MLBTR readers certainly anticipate Robert’s becoming an impact player, with 56% of poll voters forecasting him to exceed 2.3 wins above replacement in his first season.

Dodgers Sign Alex Wood

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2020 at 6:58pm CDT

The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with free agent left-hander Alex Wood, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). The deal will guarantee the ACES client $4MM on a one-year term, with incentives that can push the total to $10MM, Rosenthal adds (via Twitter). Wood has already passed his physical, Rosenthal further reports. Wood himself has confirmed the agreement on Twitter.

The reunion marks a nice birthday present for Wood, who turned 29 today. The lefty has done his best work in Dodger Blue, combining for a 3.46 ERA and 3.50 FIP over 434.2 innings in three-plus seasons in Los Angeles. Over that time, Wood only managed an average strikeout rate (22.3%), but he proved stingy with walks (6.7%) and induced ground balls on over half the balls in play against him. That mid-rotation output prompted the Reds to acquire him (alongisde Yasiel Puig and Kyle Farmer) last offseason for a pair of well-regarded prospects.

Unfortunately, a back injury limited Wood to seven ineffective starts in Cincinnati. He didn’t make his season debut until July 28, and only once did he exceed six innings in a start. Never an extremely hard thrower, Wood’s 89.98 MPH average sinker velocity last season, per Brooks Baseball, was down over two MPH from his career-best 2017 effort.

2019 struggles notwithstanding, it’s not hard to see the upside for both parties. Wood was an above-average starter as recently as 2018. He has four career seasons in which he was worth at least two wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and as noted, he remains quite young for a free agent. Injuries have hampered Wood in recent seasons, to be sure, as he’s been on the injured list each of the past four years. There’s little long-term risk here for the team, though, and their $4MM investment is minuscule for a franchise which ended the 2019 season with an estimated $210MM payroll, per Roster Resource.

Wood, meanwhile, gets an opportunity to reestablish his health. Should he reclaim his prior form, he’d likely earn some or all of the available incentives. More importantly, he can reenter the open market at a still-young 30 next offseason in search of the multiyear deal for which he seemed ticketed before his 2019 tribulations.

Wood joins a crowded Dodgers’ rotation mix behind Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. LA hasn’t been shy about moving pitchers in and out of the rotation under manager Dave Roberts. Wood figures to compete with Kenta Maeda, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and the newly-signed Jimmy Nelson for rotation innings. Surely, some or all of those pitchers will log some time out of the Dodgers’ oft-maligned bullpen as well.

So continues an offseason trend for the NL West favorites. Nelson, Wood, and reliever Blake Treinen have all been brought in on one-year deals this offseason. All three have shown high ceilings in the past, but struggled through injuries or ineffectiveness (or both) in 2019. They may not be the stars Dodger fans have been coveting, although each brings quite a bit of upside. None, it should be noted, would preclude the Andrew Friedman-led front office from striking on a bigger name if the opportunity were to present itself.

Cardinals, Rockies Have Reportedly Engaged In Preliminary Arenado Talks

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2020 at 6:24pm CDT

The Cardinals and Rockies have recently engaged in “preliminary trade negotiations” regarding Nolan Arenado, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi characterizes the Redbirds as “a viable suitor” for the five-time All-Star.

Of course, a deal coming to fruition is far from certain. Indeed, just yesterday, we heard that a St. Louis acquisition of Arenado was unlikely. That the sides are talking could give Cardinals’ fans cause for hope, but it’s hardly proof anything will get across the finish line. Teams surely engage in preliminary negotiations on any number of scenarios without ultimately completing the deal all the time.

Just how far these talks between Colorado and St. Louis have yet progressed isn’t clear. The Cardinals are intent on adding an impact position player this offseason, Morosi notes, although a re-signing of free agent Marcell Ozuna could fill that void. Morosi adds that Dakota Hudson could be a central figure in Arenado talks, although that seems more speculative than a definitive report that Colorado is intent on acquiring the 25-year-old sinkerballer.

As Morosi notes, an Arenado deal would be difficult to pull off, whether for the Cardinals or another suitor. Arenado is due $234MM over the next seven years on the extension he signed last February. That’d be a huge commitment for any acquiring team, but it’s hardly unreasonable for a player of his caliber. Anthony Rendon signed for $245MM over the same term this offseason. While Rendon has been marginally better than Arenado over the past few seasons, the Rockies’ star is a year younger.

More difficult to navigate are Arenado’s full no-trade clause and post-2021 opt-out clause. Arenado has in the past been vocal about his desire to compete, and Morosi notes he admires the Cardinals’ franchise history and has a strong rapport with Paul Goldschmidt. It thus seems feasible he’d be willing to waive the no-trade clause, particularly if the Rockies pivot to a large-scale rebuild. It should be noted, however, Arenado himself has not addressed the no-trade clause publicly.

The opt-out clause poses a greater challenge. Suitors figure to be understandably reluctant to part with the kind of young talent Colorado would surely require for their franchise player if they fear he’ll depart after 2021. (Of course, if Arenado were to not exercise his opt-out in two years’ time, it’s probably an indicator he couldn’t beat the hefty $164MM he’s currently due from 2022-26 on the open market). Morosi reports that St. Louis could explore attempting to convince Arenado to waive his opt-out clause (particularly by guaranteeing him more money), but there’s hardly any indication he’d be willing to do so.

Arenado will surely remain one of the game’s most notable trade candidates unless a deal ultimately comes to fruition. Whether St. Louis or any other team can overcome the numerous hurdles to a deal is one of the offseason’s most fascinating storylines.

Alex Gordon, Royals Discussing New Deal

By George Miller | January 12, 2020 at 4:51pm CDT

The Royals and longtime franchise cornerstone Alex Gordon are in talks to orchestrate a new deal this week that will keep Gordon in Kansas City, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (via Twitter). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that it’s “hard to imagine” Gordon doesn’t return for another season. 2020 would be his age-36 season.

An estimate of the price point isn’t yet known, though it’s safe to say any new deal (likely a one-year pact) will pay Gordon a good bit less than the $23MM he would’ve taken home had his 2020 option been exercised. He’s already collected a $4MM buyout after the Royals declined their end of the mutual option.

There’s no doubt that Gordon is no longer the player he was at the time that contract extension was signed. Still, he graded out as a net positive for the 2019 Royals, and his .741 OPS was his highest mark since 2015. He earned yet another Gold Glove award—his third straight and the seventh of his career—and was one of just a few veterans on an otherwise youthful Royals club. And with a new manager heading the clubhouse in 2020, Gordon could be an especially valuable presence as Mike Matheny acclimates to his new situation.

Gordon has made it known that he will only continue his career in the Royals uniform that he has worn for his entire career, which began in 2005 when he was Kansas City’s first-round draft choice. The only remaining question was whether Gordon would retire after playing the 2019 season at age 35. At this point, it appears retirement is off the table. And with mutual interest between the two sides, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be. Despite some promising young Major Leaguers and a burgeoning farm system, the Royals still look to be a few years away from genuine contention, so bringing Gordon back at little cost can hardly hurt their situation.

Rangers To Sign Todd Frazier

By George Miller | January 12, 2020 at 1:40pm CDT

The Rangers have reached an agreement with free-agent third baseman Todd Frazier, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that it’s a one-year, $5MM guarantee that includes a club option for a second year. Frazier will collect a $3.5MM salary in 2020 with a $5.75MM option for 2021 that comes with a $1.5MM buyout, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal is pending a physical.

Frazier, who will turn 34 in February, just wrapped up his second season with the Mets, authoring a nice bounce-back after a rough 2018. He posted a .251/.329/.443 slash line with 21 homers in 499 plate appearances. He’s been sapped of some of the power that made him a fan favorite in Cincinnati, but he has remained a roughly league-average hitter that also provides passable defense at third base. That’s enough to make him attractive to a Texas team that didn’t get great production from the position last year.

The numbers Frazier posted last year were in line with his career marks, making his dismal 2018 season look more like an outlier. If that’s true, and the Rangers get a version of Frazier that performs closer to his 2019 levels, it will be hard for Texas to be upset with such a low-cost signing that fills a clear need. Nick Solak looked to be the best in-house candidate to claim the position, though the Rangers may prefer to deploy him in a utility infield role.

Texas has been variously connected to all of the offseason’s big names at third base, including top free agents Anthony Rendon, now with the division rival Angels, and Josh Donaldson. The latter has yet to sign, but the Rangers are said to have backed off in their pursuit as he eyes a four-year deal. Most recently, they’ve been connected to Rockies star Nolan Arenado, though there’s skepticism that a deal will get completed. To be sure, Frazier doesn’t offer the same star power as the aforementioned trio, but he represents an adequate stopgap and insurance should they go 0-for-3 in their pursuit of the big fish.

Moreover, the addition of Frazier, who can also play first base, presumably doesn’t necessarily preclude the Rangers from continuing their pursuit of a top-flight option at the hot corner. Indeed, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Texas will not cease in attempting to acquire Arenado even after signing Frazier. Should their play for Arenado come to fruition, Frazier would likely slide into a timeshare with Ronald Guzman at first base. And should the Rangers miss out on Arenado and Donaldson, then Frazier is penciled in as a short-term solution, with top prospect Josh Jung waiting on the horizon.

To this point, the Rangers have allocated most of their offseason resources to upgrades on the pitching side, adding Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles to the projected starting rotation. That has left some work to be done on the position player side of things, with third base getting the most buzz. But the Rangers have some interest in free-agent slugger Nicholas Castellanos, though interestingly they like Castellanos only as a potential first base upgrade—not as an outfielder. On the other hand, Marcell Ozuna might still be in play for the outfield, which currently features Joey Gallo, Danny Santana, and Willie Calhoun.

Quick Hits: Cardinals, Urena, Orioles, Brignac

By Mark Polishuk | January 12, 2020 at 11:22am CDT

There hasn’t been many rumblings linking Nicholas Castellanos to the Cardinals this offseason, though one rival executive suggests to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) that Castellanos would be a better answer to the Cards’ outfield needs than Marcell Ozuna. We’ve addressed the Castellanos/Ozuna debate ourselves in a recent Free Agent Faceoff, though from the executive’s standpoint, Castellanos is preferable for St. Louis since he isn’t attached to any draft pick compensation. If the Cards were to re-sign Ozuna, they’d miss out on the compensatory draft pick they are slated to receive if he signed elsewhere, since Ozuna rejected the qualifying offer. Signing Castellanos, however, would both upgrade the St. Louis outfield and still leave the Cardinals in line for the extra pick.

On the flip side, the Cards’ apparent lack of interest in Castellanos may signal that they simply prefer Ozuna, who is both a comparable talent and is a more known quantity to the Cardinals’ staff and front office. Recent reports suggest that the Cards, Reds, and Rangers are all still in the mix for Ozuna, while Texas also has some interest in Castellanos, but perhaps only as a first baseman. Along with Josh Donaldson, Castellanos and Ozuna are the headliners of a rapidly-depleted free agent crop as we approach the middle of January, and it will be interesting to see which clubs (perhaps a known suitor or a mystery team) wind up with these big bats.

Some more from around baseball…

Richard Urena was recently acquired by the Orioles on a waiver claim, though the infielder could have theoretically ended up in the black and orange five years ago, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. When the Blue Jays considered the possibility of trading prospects to Baltimore as compensation for hiring Dan Duquette out of his contract as the O’s executive VP of baseball operations, Kubatko notes that Urena was one of the names the Jays offered. Talks never went anywhere, however, and Toronto instead hired Mark Shapiro as its new president and CEO in mid-2015. As for Urena, he stands a good chance at winning a bench job in Baltimore, as the Orioles were in need of a backup shortstop option behind Jose Iglesias.
Another Orioles move could also be on the way, as Kubatko reports that the team is close to adding an experienced catcher. It’s probably safe to assume that this will be a minor league signing, as the Orioles already have a fair amount of catching depth with Chance Sisco, Pedro Severino, and Austin Wynns lined up behind the plate.
The Mets announced earlier this week that former infielder Reid Brignac will manage the single-A Columbia Fireflies in 2020. This will mark the first managerial or coaching gig for Brignac, who retired in mid-2018 following a 15-year playing career. Brignac appeared in 369 Major League games over parts of nine seasons, suiting up for six different teams but seeing most of his action (256 games) with the Rays from 2008-12. Brignac will have a couple of other familiar names joining him on Columbia’s staff, as Jerome Williams was named the new pitching coach and Mariano Duncan will be the Fireflies’ new hitting coach.

Owner John Henry: Red Sox Are “Focused On Competitiveness…Over And Above Resetting” Luxury Tax Payment

By Mark Polishuk | January 12, 2020 at 9:09am CDT

Payroll concerns have been the prominent storyline of the Red Sox offseason, especially given the team’s relative lack of major moves. There has been much more attention paid to the club’s apparent attempts to trade such high-salaried players as David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., or perhaps even Mookie Betts in order to avoid surpassing the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the third consecutive season, based on comments made by Red Sox principal owner John Henry last September.

During a season wrap-up press conference, Henry said “This year we need to be under the CBT. That is something we’ve known for more than a year now.” This statement was already partially walked back by team CEO Sam Kennedy a few days later, as Kennedy said that avoiding a luxury tax penalty was “goal but not a mandate” for the coming season.

Henry further discussed the team’s financial direction in a recent e-mail exchange with Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe. This past week, Shaughnessy contacted top executives with the Red Sox and the umbrella Fenway Sports Group ownership company asking “I am working on a column in which I will suggest that there was no plan to disclose the mandate to get under the $208MM luxury tax threshold before you went into the September 27 press conference. It felt like John just came out with it spontaneously. And now that is the charge for [newly-hired chief baseball officer] Chaim Bloom. Is this accurate?“

In response to the question, Henry sent this message…

“You might actually be right for once in that I don’t plan what I’m going to say before answering media questions in a live media event. But this focus on CBT resides with the media far more than it does within the Sox. I think every team probably wants to reset at least once every three years — that’s sort of been the history — but just this week…I reminded baseball ops that we are focused on competitiveness over the next 5 years over and above resetting to which they said, ’That’s exactly how we’ve been approaching it.’ ”

“You seem to think Chaim was brought in to reduce payroll. That has simply not been the way FSG operates here or across the pond. We try to act responsibly so as to be consistently competitive. Your main point seems to be that I accidentally disclosed a secret plan but unlike you, I am honest about Sox issues. The question was asked and I answered it.”

Whereas Henry’s September comment about the “need to be under the CBT” seemed rather direct, this latest statement implies that Henry was only speaking in broader terms about his team’s (or any team’s) long-term payroll goals. Obviously, every club would prefer to avoid the luxury tax whenever possible, and especially avoid three straight years of CBT overages to avoid the maximum “three-timer” penalty of a 50% tax rate on any overages.

According to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Red Sox have a luxury tax number of just under $237.89MM for their 2020 payroll, putting them in line for a third straight year of overages. The Sox already surpassed the CBT threshold in both 2018 and 2019, costing them roughly (by the estimate of Cot’s Baseball Contracts) $25.37MM in tax payments. Also, for spending more than the maximum $40MM over the threshold in 2018, Boston’s top pick in the 2019 draft was dropped back ten slots in the draft order.

(As always, it should be noted that the CBT isn’t at all a hard salary cap, so a “need” to avoid the tax is ultimately more of an ownership preference for both the Red Sox and any other team in baseball. To use Boston’s overages from the last two years as an example, $25.37MM over a two-year span isn’t exactly a major expenditure for any franchise, especially a big-revenue club like the Red Sox.)

To this point, it’s been a pretty quiet offseason for Bloom and his front office. While the club hasn’t shed any of its heftiest contracts, the Sox also haven’t made any big expenditures, with Martin Perez and Jose Peraza representing Boston’s most notable additions. Given that there has been virtually no buzz connecting the Red Sox to any major free agents or trade targets, it’s probably safe to assume that the team’s payroll won’t be going up. While Bloom may not be under any overt directive to cut salaries, the question may be just how a fine line Bloom has to walk in trying to keep the team competitive in 2020 while not incurring an even larger luxury tax bill.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/12/20

By Mark Polishuk | January 12, 2020 at 7:02am CDT

Catching up on some minor moves from around baseball….

The Pirates officially announced that utilityman Jake Elmore has been re-signed to a minor league contract and has received an invitation to the team’s big league Spring Training camp. (Multiple reports initially had word on this deal between Elmore and the Bucs last month.) Elmore appeared in 20 games with Pittsburgh last season, marking his first MLB action since the 2016 season played in 59 games for Milwaukee. Elmore’s career Major League resume consists of 217 games spread over six different seasons with six different teams, and the 32-year-old has a career .215/.292/.275 slash line. Versatility has been a much bigger part of Elmore’s game than his bat, as he has appeared in at least one game at all ten positions during his career, with the majority of his playing time coming at shortstop, left field, first base, and second base.

Rockies Have Interest In Jonathan Lucroy

By Mark Polishuk | January 11, 2020 at 11:59pm CDT

The Rockies’ search for catching help could lead them to a familiar face, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes that “Jonathan Lucroy could return to the Rockies for a second stint.” Lucroy first played for Colorado in 2017, suiting up for 46 games in the purple pinstripes after a deadline trade from the Rangers. The veteran backstop had a big hand in the Rockies’ run to the NL wild card game that season, batting .310/.429/.437 over 175 plate appearances with the club.

Lucroy’s time in Colorado also represents the last consistently good stretch of his career, as he has otherwise struggled badly over the last three seasons. Over 782 PA with the Athletics, Angels, and Cubs in 2018-19, Lucroy has hit only .237/.297/.338 with 12 home runs. Prior to the Rockies trade, Lucroy also batted .242/.297/.338 in his first 306 PA of the 2017 season.

It has been a stark dropoff both offensively and defensively for a player who was arguably the game’s best catcher in his 2012-16 heyday with the Brewers and Rangers. As per Baseball Prospectus, Lucroy’s blocking and framing numbers have been far below average over the last three seasons. On the more intangible front, Lucroy was heavily praised for his game-calling ability and work in managing Oakland’s makeshift pitching staff in 2018, as the A’s overcame a barrage of rotation injuries to win a slot in the AL wild card game.

This type of veteran stability would be a boost to a Rockies’ catching situation that was a big problem area in 2019. Tony Wolters has yet to show anything at the plate (.653 OPS) over 1123 career plate appearances, and Wolters’ framing numbers dropped precipitously from near-elite level in 2018 to below average in 2019. Drew Butera and Elias Diaz has have already been added as veteran backup options, and Lucroy would bring more of a track record than either of that pairing, though he has shown little of his old form in recent years. The pickings are slim on the free agent catching market by this point in the offseason, so Colorado could opt to just add another relatively inexpensive option in Lucroy or perhaps seek out a trade.

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