Two of the preeminent young starters in baseball have emerged in the cities of Los Angeles and Cleveland over the past couple years. With no disrespect to Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw, who’s one of the best to ever take the mound, right-hander Walker Buehler has assumed the mantle of the club’s most valuable starter when you combine age, contract and performance. Meanwhile, the Indians have a similarly enviable rotation piece to build around in righty Shane Bieber, who joined Buehler among the majors’ most productive pitchers in 2019. So, here’s a question that has no wrong answer: If you had to pick one, which of the two would you choose?
To begin, they’re almost the same age, and they’re under team control for the same number of years. The 25-year-old Buehler won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2024. As a Super Two player, he brings one more pre-arbitration campaign to the table (though it won’t matter if there is no 2020 season). Bieber, who will turn 25 next month, is due to reach free agency at the same time, but he’s in his penultimate pre-arb year.
As for on-field results, Buehler has the edge on Bieber thus far in terms of run prevention. Excluding 9 1/3 rough debut innings as a reliever in 2017, Buehler has parlayed a 96 mph-plus fastball into a sterling 2.98 ERA/3.02 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 across 319 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.
Bieber also began to make his mark in 2018, and while his 4.55 ERA didn’t wow anyone, his peripherals indicated that he deserved better. Although he doesn’t match Buehler’s velocity (Bieber averages 93 mph on his heater), he nonetheless broke out in earnest last season. Bieber notched a 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP and put up 10.88 K/9 against 1.68 BB/9 in 214 1/3 frames – the second-highest total in the game (only AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander amassed a larger amount) and 32 more than Buehler’s 182 1/3. Buehler had a very similar year otherwise, though, posting a 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP and recording 10.61 K/9 versus 1.83 BB/9. He further put himself on the map with 12 2/3 exemplary innings of one-run ball in a playoff series loss to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.
It’s obvious there’s a ton to like about this tandem. Buehler and Bieber have not only already established themselves as elite pitchers in their mid-20s, but perhaps elite players in general. Going forward, however, which one would you take to head up your rotation? (Poll link for app users)
Bieber is better no question
I’m not even necessarily disagreeing with you – but how can you say “no question” if anything Buehler actually has a significant advantage in terms of ML performance thus far. I voted for Buelher but am open to going either way with it — but going off of ML statistics alone… I just can’t justify Bieber over Buehler. But if you say Bieber no doubt… then why?
Bieber is stronger and doesn’t have the injury history Buehler has. I’d trust Bieber to be good over 5 years way more than Buehler. He doesn’t even weigh 190 and he’s 6-2. I mean throwing that hard on a body like that will certainly lead to injuries.
Bieber does have less effort in his delivery and therefore looks like he may hold up better. But I would not bet on any pitcher’s health nowadays.
If I had a must win game right now, I would take Buehler. But to each his own.
@Dixon Miss that’s the best one yet “Bieber is stronger” your not proving anything from that statement
Buehler has the strongest deadlift and squat on the Dodgers FYI. Dude is ripped.
Theres definitely a question in that lol
Not even close, my friend.
Bieber gets my vote but its real close.
Kershaw is still the ace.
I agree… But in the article they specified that he’s the most valuable given “age, contract and performance” — so going off of that the point, I believe, is who’s the better young arm to build around — then I agree that it’s Buehler over Kershaw. Even if Kershaw may still be the better pitcher — for now anyway.
Nah man Buehler is better by far. Kershaw is only the ace for fan service.
Really?
Bieber’s a much better singer.
Buehler was a better movie
Buehler is better no question
Not according to stats.
Yeah! Run prevention- buehler
Track record- buehler
Better stuff- buehler
Hmm stats eh?
You can’t go wrong with either one. I would have to see Bieber in the playoffs to know for sure. I think Buehler can be a bit more dominant while Bieber seems a bit more steady.
Bieber went downhill after Selena dumped him.
Look there’s only room for one guy to tell bad jokes like this and dynamite drop in Monty claimed the mantle.
Also Bieber was never good so hard to drop off from rock bottom.
I love Buehler. Wanted him out of Vandy in 15. Of course my phillies took Randolph instead.
Thought Bieber cancelled his tour?
Had both on my keeper-league squad; swapped Bieber for Flaherty.
Completely regardless of which one is better, Buehler will win the poll by a large percentage because he plays in LA.
Buehler also is cheaper and has pitched better For longer and has better stuff and has postseason success and won game 163 as a rookie and has a better team around him…
But yeah everyone is just hating on Cleveland
How is Buehler cheaper?
I was going off the write up, but after checking I misread. It said Buehler has “one more pre arb season”.. I took that as a comparison to Bieber.
But it’s actual reversed, Bieber has 2 pre arb, Buehler 1.
My bad, but damn that’s an oddly worded paragraph.
So it’s only 5 points not 6
Maybe he takes his dates to Burger King.
So his $570k contract was cheaper than Beiber’s $559k deal? SMH…
Again, idiot, I took it as buehler has 2 pre arb years left and Bieber one. It’s the other. It has nothing to do with the 15k difference. Thanks for being an idiot who can’t read but wants to look funny!
Let’s take Bieber’s worst 9 1/3 innings away from his totals and then compare numbers. Bieber it’s clearly the better, younger pitcher.
If you take out Buehler’s worst 9 1/3 innings along with Bieber’s, then Buehler is still clearly the better pitcher. And Bieber is 10 months younger. I don’t see that as a significant age difference.
Buehler is not if you look at advanced metrics.
Taking away anyones 9 worst innings will make them look better. Terrible argument. Age matters but not when they are less than a year apart. Thats just ridiculous.
Lmao you care about 8 September innings as a rookie from a starter. Go for it, it doesn’t change… anything
Let’s take away 50 of Chris Davis’ strikeouts and he’s still a very good hitter…
If all else is too close to call, go with the guy who throws harder=Buehler.
Both really good young arms. I’d take Buehler, but it’s close.
As far as LA goes, I’d still probably tab Kershaw as their regular season Ace, but I’d give the ball to Buehler in a must win situation.
Bieb’s for sure.
Buehler Buehler Buehler Buehler Buehler Buehler Beuhler Beuhler
For those who say Bieber is better, look at the results from the poll…
Sure- that matters- because every year the best players are voted into the all star game right? Maybe more Dodgers fans have voted or maybe just more people know Buehler since Bieber plays in Cleveland and doesn’t get the exposure. This poll doesn’t “prove” who the better player is. While Buehler has slightly better numbers he also gets to face pitchers instead of DH’s every game. Both are stud young pitchers regardless
Walker Ferris Buehler by far.
Buehler, he throws gas top’s out at 99 and 100 when he on. Buehler will still be throwing high Velocity as he ages, Beiber will be throwing 89 mph as he ages
As an Angels fan, I can only dream about starters like Bieber and Buehler…
I’d still lean Buehler, as I’ve always thought he’d become an Ace and has a tremendous ceiling-upside, added +’s of handling the LA atmosphere, performing well in the postseason and playing in the NL….that said, Bieber has that super sick filthy slider tho which is one of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball…I’m a sucker for talent tho and I think the harder-thrower gets the edge!
I voted Buehler, but all else being equal, if they both sat at 96, who would you take?
I voted for option C, Jay Buhner.