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Prospect Faceoff: Gore v. Luzardo

By Jeff Todd | April 1, 2020 at 11:08am CDT

It’s easy to dream on top prospects. Such players have not only exhibited great play and immense talent, but have been hyped up yet further by those who judge young players for a living. We tend to see the “top-of-the-rotation” (!!!) and ignore the “potential” … with its implicit acknowledgement of a downside scenario.

This is nothing new to MLBTR readers. All fans have tales of prospect heartbreak — the would-be great ones that weren’t. It’s usually not too tough to diagnose where things went wrong after the fact … but how about predicting in advance? Here’s your chance.

Today, we’ll take a brief look at two of the top pitching prospects in baseball — southpaws Jesus Luzardo (Athletics) and MacKenzie Gore (Padres) — and give you a chance to prognosticate.

We should note at the outset that prospect watchers have a clear preference for Gore. But it’s awfully close. Fangraphs ranks Gore third and Luzardo sixth among all prospects. MLB.com has them five and twelve. Baseball Prospectus: five and nine. Baseball America: six and nine.

Then again … Luzardo is the one that has already reached the majors. It was only a brief showing, but he sure did impress. In a dozen innings, he racked up 16 strikeouts while allowing just two earned runs on five hits and three walks. Luzardo generated an excellent 14.6% swinging-strike rate. He pumped 97 mph heat and showed a balanced, four-pitch arsenal. And he did all this at just 21 years of age (he turned 22 at the end of September) in the same season in which he worked back from a shoulder and lat injuries.

There doesn’t seem to be much of a ceiling on Luzardo. You might worry about the health risks, but the A’s were also surely exercising ample caution. Luzardo had already extended to over 100 frames in 2018. And he seems to have come through just fine. He was absurdly dominant in Cactus League action this spring. Luzardo carried a roughly 50 percent groundball rate in his minor-league career, so that’s another strength.

Whereas Luzardo was a third-round pick in 2016, Gore was the third overall choice in the ensuing draft. Does that added pedigree explain the fact that he’s seen as the better prospect? On the health front, Gore has had some blister problems, though like Luzardo he also passed the century mark in innings pitched in his second full professional season.

In terms of track record … well, Gore just hasn’t gone as far quite yet. That’s no surprise: he’s a year younger and a season behind. Gore annihilated High-A hitters last year, working to a ridiculous 1.02 ERA in 15 starts. But he did run into at least some headwind after a promotion to Double-A. Through 21 2/3 innings over five outings, Gore surrendered 4.15 earned runs per nine innings on twenty hits (three of which left the yard) with a 25:8 K/BB ratio.

Prospect watchers are looking at quite a bit more than short-sample results. And they see a future ace in Gore. Though he’s still fine-tuning some of his offerings and doesn’t throw quite as hard as Luzardo, Gore carries a highly promising four-pitch mix and is said to possess exceptional athleticism and command. If he can finish honing those offerings and figure out just how to use them, he could carve up MLB hitters for years to come.

This isn’t exactly the next Trout v. Harper debate. But it’s interesting to look at these two lefties. Luzardo arguably has a smidge more certainty having already shown his stuff at the game’s highest level. Evaluators credit Gore with a bit loftier ceiling, but he has a bit more finishing work left to do.

Which do you think will have the better career?  (Poll link for app users.)

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View Comments (61)
Post a Comment

61 Comments

  1. GOP Lizards

    5 years ago

    Dustin May? Hello?

    Reply
    • Briffle2

      5 years ago

      Is he a lefty? Hello?

      6
      Reply
    • Padres2019ha

      5 years ago

      Carrot top dude who squeezes a fart out everytime he gets set?? Nahhh he ain’t nothin special

      1
      Reply
      • Afk711

        5 years ago

        May is gonna be better than Paddack

        Reply
        • Javia

          5 years ago

          It sure doesn’t look like May is going to be close to as good as Paddack so far.

          2
          Reply
        • Afk711

          5 years ago

          May made his MLB debut 3 years younger than when Paddack did. And he was more than solid in his time up. There is no way on this earth Paddack could have put up a mid 3s ERA at the big leauge level in 2017. Mays stuff is a lot better too.

          Reply
        • Koamalu

          5 years ago

          Age 23-082d
          Age 21-330d

          1 year 117 days difference in age at their MLB debut. The difference is Paddack’s recovery time from TJ surgery. May has 230 more innings in the minors than Paddack.

          Not a scout on the planet thinks May is as good as Paddack. Angels had a chance to get Paddack in 2016 but were not willing to give up Jahmai Jones to get him.

          1
          Reply
        • Afk711

          5 years ago

          May has 99 mph dartballs but sure no one thinks he is any good. Paddack got tired by June.

          Reply
        • Magnum

          5 years ago

          Harde har har

          Reply
        • Koamalu

          5 years ago

          Dustin May had a 95.8 mph average on his 4 seam FB. Not 99.

          Paddack had a 1.90 ERA in 4 starts in July. Guess he wasn’t tired

          Paddack is the far superior pitcher. So wish Eppler would have been willing to give up Jones to get him for us back in 2016.

          Reply
        • Koamalu

          5 years ago

          I do like that when you got schooled for being wrong, you doubled down.

          Reply
        • Deleted Userrr

          5 years ago

          Can’t find anything on Preller offering up Paddack for Jones.

          Reply
        • Javia

          5 years ago

          May has a 70 fastball, Paddack has a 70 changeup. The difference? Paddack also has 70 command. Did you ever watch Greg Maddux pitch? His stuff was crap, his control was impeccable. So is Paddack’s control. That makes a dig difference.

          Reply
        • Afk711

          5 years ago

          May throws a 2 seam FB as his primary pitch not a 4 seam. And imagine thinking I said he averages 99 on a fastball. No one in the history of mankind has AVERAGED 99. Your not schooling anyone. Paddack is a nice pitcher but his ceiling is as a solid 2. Going from high school to the bigs in 3 years is an incredibly fast track very few pitchers do and your dismissing of May is comical.

          Reply
        • Javia

          5 years ago

          According to Baseball America, a #1 starter has:
          Two plus pitches
          Average third pitch
          Plus-plus command
          Plus makeup

          Paddack has every one of those. May does not. May does not have plus-plus command. May is a #2 starter.
          Two plus pitches
          Average third pitch
          Average command
          Average makeup

          1
          Reply
        • Lorenzo

          5 years ago

          Come on! Paddack was originally a Marlins prospect. Preller got Paddack for 39 year old Fernando Rodney in 2016, the year Rodney was an All-Star. Maybe Eppler didn’t have to give up Jones to get Paddack? How many times have we seen a team ask for the moon in exchange for a player, then trade that player elsewhere for a much smaller package?

          Reply
        • Javia

          5 years ago

          Bobby Jenks had a 102 mph fastball and a 12-6, 90 mph knuckle-curve. Remember him? Neither does anyone else Afk711.

          Reply
        • DrDan75

          5 years ago

          They are both good. May has the good fortune to be playing on one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball.

          1
          Reply
        • Afk711

          5 years ago

          I remeber Bobby Jenks as a solid closer for a period of time including a WS champion. You could have picked a much worse example but that doesn’t matter because May is not Bobby Jenks..

          Reply
        • Javia

          5 years ago

          You made a big thing about May and his 99 mph “dartball.” I was showing you that stuff isn’t everything. But since you’re stuck on stuff, here you go.
          Dustin May sinker:. Month. BAA
          3/19. .400
          8/19. .225
          9/19. .238
          10/19. .200
          Chris Paddack changeup:. Month. BAA
          3/19. .100
          4/19. .128
          5/19. .229
          6/19. .219
          7/19. .147
          8/19. .300
          9/19. .111
          Which one graded better?

          Reply
        • Afk711

          5 years ago

          I don’t know whats worse citing batting average against or really small month sample sizes like March. I’ve seen plenty of innings from both pitchers. I’ll take May long term.

          Reply
        • Javia

          5 years ago

          May has nothing to be judged on. You are judging him on minor league stats and pure “stuff”. Of course instead of using stats, just straight opinions are much more reliable.

          Reply
        • Mike Agogliati

          5 years ago

          The Stugotz is strong in that one.

          Reply
        • Priggs89

          5 years ago

          I remember Bobby Jenks quite well… He came out of nowhere and was a beast down the stretch for the White Sox in ‘05, and he was an excellent closer for a few years after that. Many, many fond memories.

          Reply
      • MikeEmbletonSmellsBad

        5 years ago

        Infantile

        Reply
      • jtk1911

        5 years ago

        He said squeezes a fart out im dying of laughter

        Reply
    • BrewCrewDS

      5 years ago

      Me: Pepsi or coke?
      Unfit: SpRitE !!! Hellooo!!

      4
      Reply
    • harveybirdman

      5 years ago

      MLBTR: “Let’s compare these two prospects and only these two prospects.”

      MLBTR Commenter: “Yeah, but what about [Prospect #3]?!? Huh? This is clear anti-[my team] bias!”

      3
      Reply
    • Javia

      5 years ago

      These two are both top 10 prospect lefthanders. If you want to compare right-handers ranked 20-30, you can compare May with Luis Patino.

      1
      Reply
  2. truthlemonade

    5 years ago

    It might be that Dustin May has already “arrived” while still probably maintaining ROY status.

    Reply
    • joeyvottoforpresident

      5 years ago

      Rookie status not rookie of the year status

      Reply
  3. throwinched10

    5 years ago

    I would take Luzardo. Easier delivery and more repeatable mechanics.

    1
    Reply
    • lowtalker1

      5 years ago

      Actually gore always repeats his mechanics. He has a large leg kick but he is quick to the plate or bag

      1
      Reply
      • bigjonliljon

        5 years ago

        Repeated his mechanics so well that balls got hit repeatedly in AA. I’ll take Luzardo. Also because he’s already been there fine that. I’ll take the mat over possibly maybe someday

        Reply
        • lowtalker1

          5 years ago

          Have you seen the play at hodgetown? That stadium, their home park should be in the pcl (aaa). It is extremely hitter friendly

          Reply
        • Koamalu

          5 years ago

          Gore got hit in one game in AA. In the other 4 he had 3 shutout appearances and one in which he gave up 3 runs. He gave up 11 hits in the other 17.2 IP with 21 SO.

          The game he got knocked around in was in typical Amarillo weather in July. Thunderstorms and 17 mph wind blowing out to LF.

          Reply
  4. krillin89

    5 years ago

    If I was to put money on it, I would go with Jesus. He is the savior after all

    Reply
    • throwinched10

      5 years ago

      100%

      Reply
  5. Rangers29

    5 years ago

    I chose Luzardo just because he has done good in a short showing at the MLB level (and that great WC game performance last year); while Gore hasn’t been anywhere close to the MLB level yet, and even though he looks terrific (plus being untouchable in the Pads’ system), I just have to see him in higher affiliates.

    Reply
  6. 8

    5 years ago

    Luzardo will win at least 1 cy young in his career

    1
    Reply
  7. DarkSide830

    5 years ago

    Gore is certainly a great prospect, but i feel like its worth tempering excitement over him. id like to see him preform well at AA first before i say he’s better than a player that has already shown well in the Majors and would have gotten there at a younger age if not for injury.

    1
    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      5 years ago

      and, cmon, he’s just a more compelling case. Born in Peru, had to deal with seeing a shooting at his own high school while coming through the minors, several possible puns with his last name. lots of compelling reasons to root for him.

      Reply
    • Koamalu

      5 years ago

      Gore did well in AA. One bad outing out of 5. Other than that one start he pitched 17.2 innings giving up 3 runs on 11 hits while striking out 20.

      Reply
    • lowtalker1

      5 years ago

      It’s hard to do well in hodgetown as a pitcher

      Reply
  8. DarkSide830

    5 years ago

    also, as much as Doolittle and Madson were useful for the Nats, why arent we talking about that trade as a huge steal? Luzardo and Neuse already had the makings of strong prospects, and Treinen had already shown well at times in the majors.

    Reply
  9. Jeff Zanghi

    5 years ago

    I think right now I’ve got to go with Luzardo… he’s just so much closer (well actually he’s already made his debut) but he’s proven himself at the higher levels of the minors and then in an (albeit small) sample in the majors. I definitely think Gore could also wind up being a tremendous pitcher but there are significantly more “ifs” when it comes to Gore whereas Luzardo is basically already proven that he’s got what it takes to be successful in the majors — even if it was only 2 starts. Gore has yet to even prove he can dominate AA (not saying he won’t but again… it’s just a matter of him having many more “ifs” than Luzardo

    Reply
  10. southsidejoe

    5 years ago

    I agree with most of the posters here. Luzardo is the clear winner of this debate. Watch the youtube videos out there on Gore. His fastball is inconsistent (speed wise). It takes him a couple innings to warm up. That won’t work in the majors, you’ll be on the bench after an inning and 2/3 down by 5. He’s supposed to have a great curveball but from what I’ve seen, it doesn’t have sharp break at all. Maybe I’ve just seen Gore on his bad days, but I don’t see what scouts see in him.

    That said, I do think Gore will be a big league pitcher, Just going on what I’ve seen with my own eyes, he looks more like a number 4 starter.

    Reply
    • southsidejoe

      5 years ago

      I must say, the one thing I’ve seen from Gore that I really like is his ability to command the inside fastball. He does a nice job of putting that fastball on the inner third of the plate.

      Reply
    • lowtalker1

      5 years ago

      Gore is a legit number 1and patino is a legit number 2
      Coming up they will probably be 4s and 5s as they earn their spots moving forward

      Gore is better than paddock, change my mind

      Reply
  11. Asfan0780

    5 years ago

    I still don’t trust luzardo injury history. Alot of A’s future success in rotation is relying on luzardo and puk being healthy and productive close to top rotation types.

    2
    Reply
  12. TheIncident

    5 years ago

    Haven’t seen either and Gore doesn’t have a real sample above A. But I’ll stick with the prospect gurus and take Gore.

    Reply
  13. Nohrz71

    5 years ago

    It’s not mentioned but Gores AA stats don’t look good from one outing in which he gave up 3 HR and 7 runs in total.
    Both pitchers will go on to be aces of there staff I predict.

    1
    Reply
  14. Strike Four

    5 years ago

    Luzardo was only 21 last year and upon setting foot in MLB he immediately looked like a 10-year veteran. He’s going to be a regular top 10 vote getter in the Cy Young award.

    Only vote Gore if you think Gore will be the next Randy Johnson.

    Reply
    • Javia

      5 years ago

      More like the next Clayton Kershaw.

      1
      Reply
    • sorrynotsorry

      5 years ago

      Puk is clearly the next Randy Johnson.

      1
      Reply
      • Javia

        5 years ago

        There will never be another Randy Johnson.

        Reply
  15. alproof

    5 years ago

    Either one is good enough for my team. Gore is Coke, Luzardo is Canada Dry—I want BOTH of ‘em!

    Reply
  16. CuddyFox

    5 years ago

    Neither. Give me Matthew Liberatore. He is the lefty for the Cardinal future. It was foolish that Tampa traded him for 2 outfielders that one can not even play in the OF and the other has not even have a year under his belt.

    2
    Reply
    • bkwalker510

      5 years ago

      you get an F for comprehension

      Reply
  17. tcaldwell12

    5 years ago

    Your article was copied and posted on “The Union Journal by “Miriam Jackson”

    Reply
  18. Priggs89

    5 years ago

    I remember when Luzardo was supposed to be headed to the White Sox in a trade for David Robertson, but it got hung up because of money. That one hurts.

    Reply

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