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Archives for June 2020

Indy Ball American Association Announces Plan To Resume Play

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The independent league American Association has announced plans to launch a 2020 season. It’ll begin play on July 3rd and host contests in three cities.

While this plan won’t involve the kind of travel that Major League Baseball is contemplating, it’s notable that the indy ball outfit is preparing to tee up sixty contests per team. If local conditions allow, the league says it’ll expand to permit home games in all six of its usual home cities.

This is far from a typical American Association schedule. Beyond the obvious shortening and restrictions on travel, there won’t be as many participating clubs as usual. Last year a dozen organizations played in the league, twice as many as 2020. The players from teams sitting out will be made available to the other clubs through a draft process.

Most notable of all? There’ll be fans in attendance. As you might’ve guessed, television rights fees won’t support this particular ballplaying business — even in part. While you may have heard of the St. Paul Saints and even a few other American Association clubs, it’s the gate or nothing when it comes to staging a season.

Full details aren’t yet clear, but the league says it’ll employ measures to modify the in-game experience “to allow for safe social distancing while enjoying a live, professional baseball game.” The three hub cities — Fargo, North Dakota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Sioux Falls, South Dakota — were selected in large part because live attendance was permissible under local regulations.

Nats’ Convoluted Pitching Contracts Make Up Most Of Future Payroll Cost

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Nationals:

*Includes deferred salary and interest in Stephen Strasburg contract

*Includes deferred salary in Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin contracts

*Includes buyouts on club options over Howie Kendrick, Anibal Sanchez, Adam Eaton, and Eric Thames

(click to expand/view detail list)

Heated MLB Letter To MLBPA Highlights Ongoing Acrimony

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MLB didn’t just provide the MLBPA a new economic proposal today. It also filed some fighting words in the letter delivering its latest offer for a coronavirus-shortened campaign, as Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic report (subscription link).

Deputy MLB commissioner Dan Halem suggested the union has not acted in good faith in negotiations, hinting at the league’s possible stance if and when this matter ends up before an arbitrator. By Halem’s framing, labor is taking an obstructionist stance as the league provides what it labels a “final counterproposal” for a 72-game season.

That the sides are now exchanging angry letters, even as the clock ticks on squeezing in games, is to an extent merely confirmation of that underlying state of affairs. But there’s also a nod to a serious escalation lurking just beneath the surface. Halem hints less than subtly at a possible effort by the league to disrupt the sides’ late March agreement, claiming the union has “purposely failed to fulfill its obligations” and “deprived the Clubs the benefit of their bargain” in the contract.

No doubt the league already anticipated the likely outcome when it sent this shot across the bow. The union is expected to decline, and do so before the league’s appointed Sunday deadline, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

While the overall MLB salary offer has morphed in kind and crept up in value, the league’s bargaining posture remains the same as ever. The same holds true on the players’ side, where full pro rata pay has long been seen as a sine qua non.

The league begins from the premise that it can force a greatly truncated season with the players receiving pro rata pay for a third or less of a normal slate of games. Anything more? That’s gravy for the players, so they should be glad to get a marginal return for additional games played, particularly since the league is willing to dangle some added payment for an expanded postseason slate (should that prove possible). Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt laid this out rather forthrightly in his eyebrow-raising recent interview.

The players come from quite the opposite direction. By their view, the sides’ late-March agreement provided for pro rata pay for any games played. While that deal also contemplated the sides “discuss[ing] in good economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators,” the players don’t believe that disrupts the salary clause.

Given those radically different viewpoints, it’s not hard to see why this dispute seems to be so intractable. Indeed, Halem now asserts in the letter that the players have no initial right to pay in the first place. While many are playing under guaranteed contracts, Halem notes that the league could have suspended them upon the declaration of a national emergency. Of course, Manfred didn’t take that course. The late March agreement reportedly requires the commissioner to exercise good-faith efforts to stage as many games as possible, as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper notes on Twitter. And a players’ association source tells Rosenthal and Drellich that the league’s own attorneys acknowledged in letter correspondence that “players are not required to accept less than their full prorated salary.”

As we’ve pointed out here previously, it’s completely absurd that the sides remain entrenched in a disagreement over an agreement they signed in late March — one that was intended to deal with the COVID-19 shutdown. Perhaps that’s the best way to understand the acrimony and distrust: the sides evidently never really saw eye to eye even as they signed that agreement.

Tigers Fourth-Rounder Gage Workman Intends To Sign

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Tigers fourth-round selection Gage Workman says he fully intends to sign with the club, as Jeff Metcalfe of the Arizona Republic reports. While the sides haven’t yet agreed to terms, it appears there’s at least a mutual expectation that’ll come to pass.

While it’s never much of a surprise to see a draft pick join a team — usually, there’s at least some amount of correspondence in advance of the selection to assure as much — there was reason to wonder whether Workman would end up turning pro. The Arizona State product had “lots of leverage due to his age” — Workman graduated from high school early — and the still-appealing possibility returning to school, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes on Twitter.

Workman, you may have noticed, was the infield mate of top overall draftee Spencer Torkelson. The pair will launch their careers with the Detroit organization — perhaps even sharing the left side of the same infield once baseball finally resumes. The Tigers announced Torkelson as a third baseman, the position that Workman played at ASU. Workman is seen as potentially being capable of sticking at shortstop over the long haul and could at minimum begin his professional career there.

These two weren’t the only collegiate hitters selected by the Tigers over the past two days. The club took three more such players in the middle before going for high school third baseman Colt Keith with their sixth and final selection. It seems clear the Detroit organization hopes that some of these new draftees will catch up with the club’s imposing slate of upper-level pitching prospects.

MLB Makes Counter-Proposal To MLBPA

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2:48pm: Jeff Passan of ESPN has more info on roster size: Teams would be able to carry 30 players for the first two weeks, 28 for the next two and 26 for the rest of the season. They’d be able to use a total of 60 players during the season.

2:45pm: The deadline for the union to accept this 72-game offer is Sunday night, per Nightengale, who adds that players who fear contracting the coronavirus can choose not to play. However, only high-risk players would still get paid and accrue service time. If the union approves, which seems unlikely, the league will announce a season timeline and a resumption of a 21-day spring training within 48 hours, Rosenthal reports. This plan would also suspend draft-pick compensation for the 2020-21 offseason and expand the playoffs to as many as eight teams per league. If the playoffs are completed, players would receive 83 percent of prorated salaries.

2:33pm: MLB’s proposal promises players $1.5 billion if there’s a postseason, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It’s $1.27 billion for the regular season, which would begin July 14 and conclude Sept. 27. Teams would be able to carry 29 players on their roster during the first month. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that players receive 70 percent of prorated salaries for a 72-game regular season and 80 percent if the playoffs take place.

10:39am: In its latest offer to Major League Baseball, the MLBPA proposed an 89-game regular season with fully prorated salaries and playoff expansion. The league is expected to make a counter-proposal today, though it doesn’t seem like one that will move the needle enough for the union. MLB plans to offer the players a season of 70-plus games with 80 to 85 percent pro rata salaries and a playoff pool bonus, Karl Ravech of ESPN reports.

It’s expected to be a 72-game offer, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds the league will “significantly raise” the players’ share if the COVID-19 pandemic forces the cancellation of the postseason. However, “there’s no confidence” that the players will say yes to the league’s newest attempt, according to Heyman.

Prorated salaries continue to serve as the main roadblock between the parties, considering the union has insisted on receiving 100 percent of that pay for the season. With that in mind, the players obviously want as many games as possible to occur. The league, on the other hand, seems more willing to play a shorter schedule because of financial losses that will come as a result of a lack of fans in the stands. MLB could reportedly lose in the billions if the coronavirus prevents spectators at games. Furthermore, owners such as the Cardinals’ Bill DeWitt Jr. and the Cubs’ Tom Ricketts have publicly raised concerns over profits in recent weeks.

To the bewilderment of many, DeWitt claimed earlier this week that the baseball industry “isn’t very profitable.” Last month, Ricketts said that “about 70 percent of the revenue that comes into our organization comes in on day of game.”

Despite the ongoing disagreements between owners and players, commissioner Rob Manfred insisted this week, “We’re going to play baseball in 2020 — 100 percent.”

Under the agreement the owners and players made in March, Manfred has the ability to choose the length of a season (perhaps one as few as 40-plus games). While neither side wants it to come to that, the 11th hour is approaching, and if the owners and players don’t see eye to eye in talks soon, Manfred could take matters into his own hands in the coming days. Such a move likely would not bode well with the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire after 2021, but Manfred may decide to risk it if leads to any kind of a 2020 season.

The 2015 Top 10: A Superstar Is Born

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We’ve already reviewed the top 10 picks from the 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2013 drafts. Let’s now take a look at the 2015 class. A half-decade later, one player stands miles above the rest.

1.) Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks:

  • Swanson never appeared in a game for Arizona, which made the widely panned decision to trade him in a package for then-Braves righty Shelby Miller in the same year it drafted him. As MLBTR’s George Miller wrote several weeks, the Braves have indeed gotten far more value from the trade than the D-backs. For his part, the light-hitting Swanson hasn’t been great. However, he has been a passable, inexpensive regular. Not a ringing endorsement, but it’s at least more than can be said for some other No. 1 picks.

2.) Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, Astros:

  • The Astros were only in position to select Bregman because they received a compensatory pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken, the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. What a break. Bregman made his debut just over a year after the Astros drafted him and has since evolved into one of the game’s elite players. The 26-year-old is now coming off his second straight MVP-level season, in which he batted .296/.423/.592 (168 wRC+), swatted 41 home runs, drew 119 unintentional walks against 83 strikeouts, and piled up 8.5 fWAR.

3.) Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS, Rockies:

  • Rodgers’ first taste of big league action didn’t go well in 2019, when he took 81 trips to the plate and batted .224/.272/.250 (25 wRC+) without a home run before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in July. None of that sounds good, but there remains plenty to like about Rodgers. He’s still just 23, still a high-end prospect (MLB.com ranks him No. 29), and coming off a year in which he destroyed Triple-A pitching. In 160 plate appearances at that level, Rodgers slashed .350/.412/.622 with nine homers. Even in the offensively charged Pacific Coast League, that line amounted to a wRC+ of 147.

4.) Dillon Tate, RHP, Rangers:

  • Tate, 26, made his major league debut in 2019 with 21 innings of 6.43 ERA ball, but not before being part of two notable trades in preceding years. The Rangers sent Tate to the Yankees in a 2016 deal for Carlos Beltran, and then New York sent the hurler to Baltimore in 2018 to acquire Zack Britton.

5.) Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros:

  • Tucker hasn’t gotten much of a chance in Houston (he totaled 72 plate appearances in each of the previous two seasons), but he remains a touted 23-year-old whom the franchise has been loath to surrender in a trade. If a 2020 season does happen, Tucker could get a better opportunity to establish himself. It should at least come by 2021, as Houston’s entire starting outfield of George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are all due to become free agents during the upcoming winter.

6.) Tyler Jay, LHP, Twins:

  • Injuries have helped cut down Jay’s career so far. Jay never pitched for the Twins, who traded the 26-year-old to the Reds last season, nor has he reached the majors. He spent most of 2018-19 as a reliever in Double-A, where he has logged a 4.22 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 136 1/3 frames.

7.) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:

  • By measure of wRC+, Benintendi has only been a league-average hitter in two of his three full seasons; nonetheless, he has been a productive piece for Boston, and is clearly one of the most successful members of his draft class.

8.) Carson Fulmer, RHP, White Sox:

  • As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently noted, Fulmer was regarded as a sure bet to succeed in the majors during his time as a prospect. Unfortunately, though, he has been a flop in the bigs. The 26-year-old owns a 6.56 ERA/6.44 FIP with 7.89 K/9 and 6.08 BB/9 across 94 2/3 innings (44 appearances, 15 starts). He ran up a 6.00-plus ERA last season, mostly from Chicago’s bullpen.

9.) Ian Happ, INF/OF, Cubs:

  • Happ has given the Cubs plenty of versatility in the field while chipping in above-average offense in each of the three years he has appeared in the majors. Strikeouts were a major problem for Happ during his first two years, but he made enormous strides in that area a season ago, slashing his K rate from 36.1 percent in 2018 to 25 percent. That drastic cut helped Happ to a career-best line of .264/.333/.564 (127 wRC+), though he started 2019 in Triple-A after a miserable spring training and only appeared in 58 of Chicago’s games.

10.) Cornelius Randolph, OF, Phillies:

  • The 23-year-old Randolph hasn’t played above Double-A, where he hit .247/.324/.399 with 10 homers in 389 plate appearances last season. Randolph failed to earn a ranking from Baseball America, FanGraphs or MLB.com in any of their most recent Phillies prospects lists.

—

Combined fWAR of this bunch: 36.5. Bregman has clearly been the rising tide lifting the other boats…

  • 1.) Bregman: 20.5
  • 2.) Benintendi: 9.0
  • 3.) Happ: 4.8
  • 4.) Swanson: 3.9
  • 5.) Tate: 0.0
  • 6.) Tucker: minus-0.2
  • 7.) Rodgers: minus-0.6
  • 8.) Fulmer: minus-0.9

Left off: Jay and Randolph, who haven’t played in the league.

Athletics, First-Rounder Tyler Soderstrom Will Reportedly Reach Agreement

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JUNE 12: Expectations are that Soderstrom will sign for approximately $3.3MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That would indeed check in well above slot, as Glaser reported.

JUNE 10, 10:54pm: There’s no deal yet, according to Soderstrom. However, the A’s are optimistic he will sign, per Slusser.

9:38pm: The Athletics have already reached an agreement with first-round pick Tyler Soderstrom, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America reports. Details aren’t known yet, but it’s worth “considerably above slot,” according to Glaser. Soderstrom’s pick, No. 26, comes with a slot value of $2,653,400. Oakland entered the draft with an overall pool of $5,241,500.

Soderstrom’s a local product out of Turlock High School in California, and he’s also the son of 1993 Giants first-rounder Steve Soderstrom, a former pitcher who had a cup of coffee with San Francisco in 1996. Tyler Soderstrom had been in line to play at UCLA before the draft, but he’ll instead continue his development as part of one of the state’s major league teams.

Oakland’s clearly bullish on the younger Soderstrom, as its scout for Northern California, Kevin Mello, told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle: “He’s the best amateur bat I’ve seen in my 15-year career. He’s got a chance to be very, very good. He’s a really special player.”

Mello’s also of the belief that Soderstrom will stick behind the plate, though that may not be a given. MLB.com, which ranks Soderstrom as the 19th-best player in this year’s class, notes that he’s “raw in terms of blocking and game management.” But Soderstrom’s a good athlete who can play third base and the outfield, so those factors and his considerable offensive upside suggest he may be able to carve out a successful MLB career even if he doesn’t last as a catcher.

Jeff Wilpon On Potential Mets Sale

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Although Mets owners Jeff Wilpon and Fred Wilpon have had the franchise on the block for months, the club remains under their control. It does appear that will change sometime soon, however.

During a panel for UJA-Federation of New York on Thursday, Jeff Wilpon said, “The team will have some kind of transaction,” according to Yaron Weltzman of Bleacher Report. “There’s four or five suitors that are out there to do something with.”

Unsurprisingly, Wilpon didn’t reveal who’s pursuing the team. A report earlier this week linked Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils owner Josh Harris to the Mets. David Blitzer, who also has ownership stakes in the 76ers and Devils, could join Harris’ group. There’s also the famous duo of Alex Rodriguez and Jennifer Lopez, who are reportedly working with senior bankers from JPMorgan Chase to put together a Mets bid. Rodriguez and Lopez are aware of the interest Harris and Blitzer have shown in the Mets, but A-Rod and J-Lo are still confident they’ll be able to submit a legitimate offer, per Ted Holmlund of the New York Post.

It’s not clear how much money it would require to buy the Mets, especially because it’s uncertain whether the Wilpons will be open to giving up any part of the SNY network in a deal. A few months ago, it looked as if the Wilpons were on the cusp of selling 80 percent of the franchise to Steve Cohen for $2.6 billion. Those talks fell through, however, and with the coronavirus having wreaked havoc since then, the Wilpons may not make out as well as they hope on a possible sale.

Orioles, Fourth-Rounder Coby Mayo Agree To Above-Slot Bonus

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The Orioles and fourth-rounder Coby Mayo have agreed to a deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Mayo – the 103rd pick – will earn a bonus worth $1.75MM, which is well above the $565,600 recommended value of his selection. Notably, the Orioles lead the majors with a $13,894,300 bonus pool.

A high school third baseman from Coral Springs, Fla., Mayo had committed to the University of Florida before signing with the Orioles. Mayo didn’t wind up in the top 100 of Keith Law of The Athletic or MLB.com prior to the draft, but FanGraphs (No. 67) and Baseball America (No. 79) are more bullish on the 18-year-old. FanGraphs notes Mayo has “surprising bat control for size,” while BA credits him for his “raw power,” “solid zone recognition and a mature approach at the plate.” There are some questions as to whether the 6-foot-5, 215-pounder will stick as an infielder in pro ball, but the Orioles do view him as “strictly” a third baseman, Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweets.

With Mayo under wraps, the Orioles still have five other picks to sign, including second selection Heston Kjerstad and 30th choice Jordan Westburg.

MLBTR Poll: Will Alex Cora Manage Again In MLB?

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Thursday evening was one of the few times that former Red Sox manager Alex Cora has spoken publicly since the club fired him in late January. At the outset of the offseason, no one would have expected such a horrid outcome for Cora, who was wildly successful during his two years as Boston’s skipper. But Cora found himself embroiled in a couple of scandals – one for the Astros’ sign-stealing violations from a World Series-winning 2017, when he was its bench coach; the other came as a result of Boston’s sign-stealing from the 2018 campaign, in which Cora was a rookie manager who helped the team to a championship.

The Red Sox felt it was best to part with Cora as MLB was deliberating his fate. After months of reviewing the evidence, the league decided in April to suspend Cora through the 2020 postseason. However, it only banned Cora for the role he played as Houston’s assistant in 2017, not Boston’s manager the next season. Cora has since acknowledged the errors he made with the Astros, including when he took responsibility on Thursday (via Marly Rivera of ESPN.com) and said: “I deserve my suspension and I’m paying the price for my actions. And I am not proud of what happened.”

The 44-year-old Cora went on to admit he’d eventually like to return to baseball. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll get back into the game in any capacity, but if teams are willing to believe he has learned his lesson, he could re-emerge as a managerial candidate down the line (perhaps he’ll first have to prove himself again as an assistant). Cora did hold his own in that position in the pressure cooker known as Boston, where he guided the team to 192-132 regular-season record and the aforementioned championship. With that in mind, do you think some MLB franchise will ever give him another shot as a manager?

(Poll link for app users)

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