Thanks to the expanded postseason format, the Brewers were a playoff team in 2020, despite a 29-31 record and a lack of offensive production. The club now heads into the winter looking to answer a lot of questions throughout the lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Christian Yelich, OF: $205MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
- Lorenzo Cain, OF: $35MM through 2022
- Freddy Peralta, RP: $13.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; deal also contains $8MM club option for 2026)
- Avisail Garcia, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club/mutual option for 2022, though buyout value could vary)
- Josh Lindblom, SP: $5.5MM through 2022
- Brent Suter, RP: $1.5MM through 2021
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Orlando Arcia – $2.8MM
- Alex Claudio – $2.0MM
- Ben Gamel – $1.7MM
- Josh Hader – $5.1MM
- Corey Knebel – $5.125MM
- Omar Narvaez – $2.9MM
- Jace Peterson – $700K
- Manny Pina – $2.0MM
- Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM
- Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Arcia, Claudio, Gamel, Knebel, Narvaez, Peterson, Vogelbach
Option Decisions
- Ryan Braun, OF: $15MM mutual option was declined by Brewers, Braun received $4MM buyout
- Jedd Gyorko, IF: $4.5MM club option was declined, Gyorko received $1MM buyout
- Eric Sogard, IF: $4.5MM club option was declined, Sogard received $500K buyout
- Ben Gamel, OF: $2.55MM club option was declined
Free Agents
- Braun, Gyorko, Sogard, Brett Anderson, Ryon Healy, Shelby Miller
Looking to build on postseason appearances in both 2018 and 2019, the Brewers made a number of short-term, relatively inexpensive signings last winter to reinforce the roster after Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departed in free agency. It was a sound plan on paper and, overall, it worked considering that the Brew Crew again reached the playoffs.
The issue with such a strategy, however, is that the Brewers are now facing another reload on the open market. Obviously the Brewers couldn’t have foreseen last winter that their already fairly tight payroll situation would impacted by a season of major revenue losses, but their budget figures to be even tighter in 2021. It doesn’t seem likely that the team will match its (pre-adjusted schedule) 2020 payroll of roughly $97.5MM.
Between their roughly $47.5MM of guaranteed contracts, the above arbitration projections and a handful of pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster, Milwaukee is looking at nearly $81MM in projected payroll. It remains to be seen how much money president of baseball operations David Stearns will have at his disposal for new additions. On the plus side, Stearns has shown himself to be adept at finding low-cost gems in trades or free agency, so this will be nothing new for him. More funds could be freed up in the form of non-tenders, as the Brewers could reasonably part ways with more than half of their 10-player arbitration class.
Cutting ties with Omar Narvaez would leave the Brew Crew without their starting catcher, yet Narvaez had such a tough offensive season that the team may decide he isn’t worth the investment. Jace Peterson, Alex Claudio, and (especially) Daniel Vogelbach were all pretty productive in limited action with Milwaukee last season, but since lots of similar players are expected to be available in a flooded non-tender market, the Brewers could look for cheaper options elsewhere. Corey Knebel struggled over 13 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, and with a projected $5.125MM arbitration salary, Knebel might be deemed too expensive to retain given the risk that he doesn’t get back to his old All-Star form.
Speaking of All-Star relievers, Josh Hader is obviously in no danger of being non-tendered, yet could Hader have already thrown his last pitch in a Milwaukee uniform? The club is reportedly open to hearing trade offers, but as Stearns said in September, being willing to listen to another team’s proposal is much different than actively exploring deals. “We’ve never really looked to move [Hader], and I don’t really anticipate that changing,” Stearns said at the time.
Some might argue that Devin Williams‘ emergence as a shutdown reliever makes Hader at least somewhat expendable, though Williams also serves as an argument for keeping Hader; having two outstanding relievers more fully reinforces a pitching staff that traditionally doesn’t extend starters deep into games in the name of efficient run prevention.
Past Milwaukee staffs have kept a pretty loose definition of “starter” and “reliever” rather than sticking to strict roles, though going into 2021, the Brew Crew has four starters in place. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted front-of-the-rotation results last season, while advanced metrics indicated that Josh Lindblom pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate. Adrian Houser struggled down the stretch after some good early outings, but the right-hander looks to have the inside track on a rotation spot.
The fifth spot could be filled internally. Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, or Brent Suter are all candidates to take the job themselves, or perhaps they’ll share starts (or work as bulk pitchers behind an opener). As much as the Brewers like being flexible with their hurlers, they’ll surely look to add more depth, and re-signing Brett Anderson could be a possibility. Anderson had a good year in 2020, but since he is entering his age-33 season and doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers that many teams covet, he could be available to the Brewers on another one-year deal. If not Anderson, expect Milwaukee to target similar veterans on short-term contracts.
The Brewers’ first round of financial decisions this offseason resulted in four declined club options, most notably the team passing on their side of a mutual option with long-time star Ryan Braun. While not an unexpected move given Braun’s age, price tag, and his average hitting numbers, it is still noteworthy that Braun’s 14-season run with the franchise is done — barring another contract, that is. Braun said in July that he was leaning towards playing in 2021, and if that stance hasn’t changed, it’s possible the two sides could reunite on an inexpensive one-year deal. There might not be action on this front, of course, until the Brewers know if the DH will be available to National League teams next season.
Further complicating Stearns’ winter business is the lack of certainty at almost every position around the diamond. The Brewers are looking for almost a lineup-wide rebound. Each of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias and Narvaez struggled to varying extents, while Lorenzo Cain is expected to return after opting out of the 2020 season just five games into the year. Yelich, Cain, and Hiura are the clear everyday building blocks, and Garcia will likely stay due to a lack of trade value. Urias is still part of the Brewers’ future, and his lackluster 2020 numbers were likely impacted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis that sidelined him for much of Summer Camp.
Where Urias plays next season depends on what the Brewers do with Orlando Arcia. The former top prospect had a solid offensive showing (.260/.317/.416 in 189 PA) that resulted in a career-best 96 wRC+, but this could be too little, too late. Arcia is another player that could plausibly be non-tendered, but since Urias had yet to establish himself at the MLB level, the Brewers could see value in keeping Arcia around to hold the fort at shortstop.
That could leave Urias in line to play some third base, and Milwaukee will look to augment the position with an addition like last winter’s signing of Eric Sogard (ideally with more return on investment, given Sogard’s lack of production). Players like Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Brad Miller may be within the Brewers’ price range, and Gyorko hit well enough that one would imagine the team would be interested in bringing him back. Of the slightly more expensive options, Tommy La Stella could also be a target. Even further up the financial ladder, the Brewers would make some sense as a bidder for Ha-Seong Kim once the Korean star is posted. MLBTR projects Kim to land a $40MM contract, but for a 25-year-old with Kim’s skill set, potential, and multi-positional ability, Milwaukee could decide to take the plunge.
Even moreso than Arcia, Narvaez’s chances of being tendered a contract are helped by a lack of other options, as the Brewers would have to either acquire another backstop or roll with the in-house trio of Manny Pina, Jacob Nottingham, and David Freitas. Known for his offense more than his defense heading into 2020, Narvez had a reversal of a year that saw his bat falter but his pitch-framing rise to elite levels. An argument can be made that Milwaukee should hang onto Narvaez just to see what they really have in him, and if his hitting can recover in something of a more normal season.
Vogelbach is the favorite for first base if he is tendered a contract, but given his lack of track record, the Brew Crew could try to take advantage of a depressed free agent market to land a more proven hitter at something of a discount. Carlos Santana stands out as a big bat whose stock is low coming off a down year in 2020. Most of the aforementioned third base options also have first base experience, and Braun might also be a candidate for first base if the Brewers re-signed him.
If this seems like a lot of wait-and-see for a team hoping to contend, at least it helps the Brewers that their chief rivals in the very competitive NL Central all have big questions of their own. Should 2020 prove to be an aberration and Yelich, Cain, Narvaez, and others all hit at something close to their past levels of performance, the Brew Crew will be a better team based on internal improvement alone. Combine this with hitting on a few more short-term acquisitions, and a fourth straight postseason trip could be in the offing.
The fact that David Freitas remains on the roster suggests they may indeed let Narvaez go. I can’t see them non-tendering Arcia. He was one of the few offensive bright spots in 2020 and he’s not that expensive. They may still like Urias a lot but until he shows something at the major league level he can’t be considered an everyday player. If he does start to hit, he can be considered at 3B where they have a big hole. Based on what they saw of Vogelbach this year, I think they see him as a bargain. They don’t make the playoffs in 2020 without him. I expect Claudio to be non tendered. He’s kind of handy but I think they can bring him back for less. The big question is Knebel.
Go sign Morton and Carlos santana and of course- Molina ! Central is wide open and Brewers got a solid core- be nice to see Brewers bounce back – they are easy to root for
Who are the starters Burnes Woodruff who else was good you can’t win with 3 starters sign more than Morton
Carlos Santana was mostly just unlucky last season*. Played in all 60 games, walked 47 times to lead AL, but BABIP of .212 (vs .293 career). Excellent candidate for a bounce back year.
Santana is still good and may outperform last year’s performance but expecting a “bounce back” season from a 35 year old is a bit iffy.
Well, his xBA was .251, his xslugging was .450 and his xwOBA was .360. He might be older but he looks like a bounceback candidate to me. He might not reach that 2019 peak, but could look more like what we saw in 2017, a .260/.360/.460 hitter with 20-25 home runs.
Is Morton likely to go to Milwaukee? He has family in FLA and the talk is that he wants to stay near them. Likely the Rays, Marlins or Braves. That’s what I’ve heard.
Yeah, no chance with Morton. They’d have to outbid any number of southeast or even east coast teams and that isn’t happening.
This team is going to be better and cheaper. Watch out, the Milwaukee Brewers are going to be good!
The Brewers have to try to get a reliable cheap-ish bat for Hader. It’s the only way to get back to being competitive while not spending a ton. With Yardley, Williams, Claudio and Peralta they have a good enough bullpen to compete without Hader.
See if you can get Frazier from the Yankees, Smith/Alonso from the Mets, Gurriel from the Blue Jays, Rios from the Dodgers etc. They all seem unlikely but it’s worth a shot.
Even if they can pull of a good trade the Brewers feel like the biggest make or break team of the 4 ‘competitors’ in the NL Central.
It would cost much much more than Hader for Mets to consider parting with Alonso. I dont think Hader would be enough for Smith either, considering team control and how cheap he is.
It’s very much wishful thinking from a Brewers perspective. But with no DH in 2021 they might view one of them as expendable and overpay.
Out of the guys I mentioned, I think Rios is the most attainable if Dodgers resign turner. But they might just as well sign Hand.
My fantasy has long been Hader (+?) to the Dodgers for Josiah Gray and Rios.
Big overpay. One of those guys and a lower level minor leaguer.
This will be interesting. Stern on of the best young executives. Good luck Brew Crew
Get Simmons to play SS. He will save a lot of runs and not break the bank.
They have two shortstops. They need third and first.
No need to give away Hader though. We have seen the way Counsell likes to use his pitching staff. Having more then 3 guys that can pitch in high level situations is key for his style. I do agree that a SP is needed but if Brett Anderson is the answer, that wont do.
I will just let Stearns do what he has been doing. Can’t hate on what he has done thus far.
While I highly doubt Arcia is non-tendered I’m amazed it is even a possibility. I saw him out in Spring training a few times as a prospect and he looked to have all the tools. And most evaluators agreed.
I’m more confident with a rotation of Woodruff, Burnes, Houser, Lauer and Peralta. If not I think its time to give Ashby, Brown, Rasmussen or File in the rotation. I also wonder what it might take to get Cooper and Anderson from Miami. Depending on what we get for Hader. Other possibilities to go after is Jared Walsh from the Angels. Hopefully we can find someone willing to take Garcia off our hands. Time to give it to Taylor. I know some won’t like this but gotta resign Braun. He would be a good utility/ pinch hitter. Use Urias in super utility role.
Hader for a package involving Marsh would be a shrewd move. I have a feeling Hader’s arm is about to fall off while Marsh is just getting going.
Just a hunch, but Hader has been ridden really hard the last few years.
True I think the big question is going to be if he can adjust his pitching to compensate for the eventual lowering of speed on fast ball.
The Brewers have potentially the best pitching in the league. Woodruff & Burnes are two of the best young starters in baseball, and between Peralta, Houser, Lindblom and Lauer can fill out a strong rotation.
If they keep Knebel and Hader, the bullpen is the best in baseball and by a large margin.
Adding Devin Williams, Drew Rasmussen and Justin Topa to the aforementioned gives the team a shutdown 5-headed monster.
They need bounce back seasons from Yelich and Hiura, but with Cain back and Stearns adding a couple of upgrades positionally, this team should be able to get to near average offensively, which with the aforementioned pitching should make this team very dangerous in the playoffs.
I say this as a Brewers fan: no way they have the best pitching in the league. I’m optimistic about guys like Houser (he’s young and showed flashes of being a solid SP) and Lindblom (very unlucky in 2020), but they’re far from certain things, and even if they improve in 2021 they have very limited ceilings. Lauer his huge question mark, and his floor is very low, even if his ceiling is decent.
Likewise with Topa and Rasmussen: they could be great, but they could be mop-up guys. Too little info to go on with them right now. Knebel is also a huge question mark; maybe he’ll never be the same.
I’m very optimistic about the pitching staff, but a lot of stuff needs to break right or everyone of those guys needs to continue to improve/develop for the Brewers to have the best pitching in the league.
The nice thing is that the offense was so bad in 2020 that it will be relatively easy to significantly improve in 2021. Even just having bouncebacks from Yelich, development from Hiura, and anything from Cain will be huge. I think Narvaez and Urias can be counted on to be at least somewhat (and possibly a lot) better. Someone like La Stella would be great for this team, and they should be willing to spend on him (or someone like him); he won’t be THAT expensive. Signing La Stella and Santana should be a viable route to fill the biggest holes. Alternatively, I like some of the ideas above about trading Hader to the Angels for Jared Walsh and/or Brandon Marsh, or for Edwin Rios+ from the Dodgers.
On the pitching side I was hoping Stearns would nab Drew Smyly for a reprise, but alas, that train has sailed. Did Taijuan Walker sign anywhere yet?
They are a long way from the Dodgers.
Milwaukee Brewers keep turning up the heat!
Are they even on a simmer?
if there is an expectation that the DH will be back, id have to think Vogey is back. low price tag and he did well last year with them. obviously a small sample size, but they would need to fill 1B and DH otherwise.
This is yet another example of why it’s ridiculous to me that still nobody knows whether or not the NL will have the DH. Teams having to make roster decisions without that knowledge is absurd.
I would keep Arcia if I was the Brewers. He’s seemed to me to be a pretty solid player overall, and they aren’t sure if Urias is ready for a full-time gig yet. If they feel like Arcia is superfluous during the season, then trade him to an infield-needy team then.
If Yelich doesn’t bounce back, the Brewers have no chance in 2021.
What was up with the .205 avg? was he hurt?
that’s what I want to know. didnt see a lot of headlines pointing out his bad numbers too which is odd.
I think the guy is human and the bottom line we all had a lot to deal with. That being said. im going to chalk it up as him being a young kid and that he didn’t have adequate protection around him in the line up. I think he pressed and put pressure on himself. I do believe that he could use another year of Braun there. I also worry about the impact that Sedar not being here will have on this young team. The buy low on players to have bounceback years just plain failed .
It was tough not having Cain last year as well. I agree not having protection around him hurt quite a bit. I’ll pass on Braun… unless he comes back for cheap. Way to much money wasted on him the last few years.
I agree with that but for how much he can come through in the clutch. He could absolutely be a threat coming up once a game with runners in scoring position. I think he absolutely could be very good doing that almost like Thad Bosley type .
I don’t know about his other skills as a coach, and I know he’s regarded as a great clubhouse guy, but Ed Sedar absolutely sucked in the role of 3B coach.
He still had an OBP north of .350
His BABIP was at .259 so looks like bad luck. His exit velocity was still in the 99 percentil, had a solid spray chart (over 40% up the middle). His strikeouts did spike though.
Looks like most of his trouble was off the fastball (whiffed 25% of the time). Sounds like his timing was off and not seeing the ball well. In a regular season, he gets his timing back and goes bananas for a couple months to bring his average up, but in 60 games it looks bad. I wouldn’t worry too much about it honestly.
Yu Darvish probably has an opinion differing from others here as to why Yellich didn’t hit in ‘20.
Based off the handful of games I managed to see, I thought he was bailing out on a number of swings. Made me wonder if the knee injury..while physically healed..was in his head yet. Just a non-medical probably way off pondering on my part.
There’s an idea that below the dugout Yelich studied video during games and that wasn’t allowed this season I believe.
Guy also having a recovery of a broken kneecap. Something like that. Maybe no videos down below dugout in between ABs is a reason why all MLB hitters struck out more.
Yelich was coming off that horrible knee injury. No spring training. And look at the league a lot of the best hitters were down. This year was a wash.
MIL finally has a good core pitching staff, especially the pen. Too bad they only have 4 MLB level position players to fill out the lineup.
Yelich, Cain, Hiura, Narvaez, Garcia makes 5 and Arcia is admittedly borderline but still an MLB player. We all know they’re going to add a 1B and/or a 3B so I think I’d wait until they hit the field next Spring to say it’s “too bad.”
Profar signs for Sogard money- instant upgrade.
Wouldn’t mind Santana at first and Martin Perez as a back-end starter. If bounce back years happen, outside shot as WC, perhaps even win a down NL Central.
It’s hard to be positive about a Wisconsin sports team after how the NFL, Big 10, and NBA went last week/weekend.
My expectations. Brewers will trade all 3 of Hader, Kneble, and Claudio. Probably need to pay 1million on Kneble to get any sort of return not lottery ticket.
Take the 10 million savings and apply it to a contract or 3. Obviously depends what the returns are.
Team has a starting rotation set of Woodruff, Burnes, Lindblom, Houser, Lauer, and Peralta. Don’t expect any additions there. Bullpen will likely find a waived player or two/minor league contract as depth with the 3 traded away.
Personally looking at Urias at 3b and Arcia at SS. Again money saved. This leaves a need for a utility IF-1b. And a 4/5 OF. It’s going to be a long off-season mostly sitting back and waiting for spring training to come.
Will say surprise move could be moving Freddy Peralta. Cheap guaranteed contract on a potential Starter. Would pair off a Hader deal let’s say for a team to part with a high ranked prospect that feels out of reach for Hader alone. Especially a team needing not only a 4 or 5 SP but keeping payroll modest as well.
Knebel and Claudio have very little trade value right now, and neither have been tendered a contract yet. I don’t see paying Knebel $5MM+ in arb just to have to eat $1MM+ in trading him. I think they have to non-tender Knebel and try to sign him back for something like $2MM.
I think Brewers squeaked into playoffs last yr, I didn’t think their pitching was that good, Reds and Cards should b better in 2021, still competitive division, not sure what Cubs are up to w pitching and Bryant issue
Brewers pitching was 4th in FIP last season putting them ahead of the Reds, Cards, Cubs and even the Rays. I’d say their pitching is the reason they were able to squeak into the playoffs with one of the worst offenses in the league.
If they can add another starter for depth (I like Minor as a man affordable bounce back candidate) along with a couple quality bats like Tommy La Stella and Carlos Santana which should be enough when paired with normal production from Yelich, Cain and Hiura