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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020.  Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series.  That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.

It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend.  More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity.  The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.

Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending.  The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.

Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards?  Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.

Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season.  Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation.  Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021.  Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff.  Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.

Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.”  This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.  A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.

Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer.  Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays.  Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.

Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out.  If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent.  A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier.  If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.

Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting.  Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past.  The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.

Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position.  Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present.  The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.

Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez.  Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.

As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season.  Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.

The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020.  Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.

It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher.  But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience.  As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.

There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.

Mike Foltynewicz, Jorge Bonifacio, Domingo Santana, Tyler Heineman Become Free Agents

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According to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America, 422 players became minor league free agents Monday. Hilburn-Trenkle provides the full list, but right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, outfielders Jorge Bonifacio and Domingo Santana, and catcher Tyler Heineman are among the notables.

Foltynewicz spent the previous six seasons with the Braves, and he looked like a front-line starter at times. During his best season, 2018, Foltynewicz threw 183 innings of 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP ball with 9.93 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. His career began coming off track the next season, though, as the Braves demoted him to Triple-A during the summer. While Foltynewicz did return to the majors and finish on a positive note, he wasn’t able to carry that momentum into 2020. The 29-year-old made just one appearance – on July 27 – gave up six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings and experienced an alarming drop in velocity, going from the 95 mph range to 90.5. The Braves then designated Foltynewicz for assignment, but no one claimed him and he spent the remainder of the year at their alternate training site.

The Indians took a $1.5MM gamble on Santana last winter after a 21-home run season with the Mariners, though he struggled in the second half of the 2019 campaign and hasn’t recovered since. He amassed 84 plate appearances as an Indian and hit a nonthreatening .157/.298/.286 with a pair of home runs. To no one’s surprise, the Indians declined the 28-year-old’s $5MM option for 2021.

Bonifacio was once a top 100 prospect with the Royals, but he has fallen on hard times since a promising start in 2017. An 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs limited him in 2018, during which he offered subpar production over 270 PA, and Bonifacio took only 21 trips to the plate the next season. The Royals then released Bonifacio, who signed a minors deal with the division-rival Tigers. Though he did get back to the majors with the Tigers, the 27-year-old logged the worst production of his career, hitting .221/.277/.326 line and two homers across 94 PA.

Heineman, an ex-Marlin, became a Giant on a minors pact in January. He cracked their season-opening roster, started Game 1 and was a regular into mid-August, but he lost almost all of his playing time to Joey Bart and Chadwick Tromp from there. Heineman ended the campaign with a .190/.292/.214 line and no homers in 50 attempts.

Giants Notes: Gausman, Righetti, Dunston

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Thanks to Kevin Gausman’s enormous rebound effort in San Francisco this year, the Giants decided over the weekend to issue the free-agent right-hander an $18.9MM qualifying offer. It’s possible Gausman will accept it by the Nov. 11 deadline, which Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic writes would be palatable for the Giants. However, the Giants are also interested in re-signing Gausman to a multiyear contract, according to Baggarly.

As a soon-to-be 30-year-old fresh off an excellent season, Gausman may be the second-most appealing starter on the open market. Indeed, the Giants do have him ranked as the No. 2 option available, trailing only ace Trevor Bauer, per Baggarly. While Gausman won’t do nearly as well as Bauer this winter, a deal in the three-year, $40MM to four-year, $50MM range isn’t out of the question, Baggarly notes. If the hard-throwing Gausman’s breakout continues, a contract along those lines could be a bargain.

Gausman has already given the Giants plenty of bang for their buck since they signed him to a $9MM guarantee last December. In what may go down as his only year as a Giant, he provided the club 59 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball with the National League’s seventh-best K/BB ratio (4.94; 11.92 K/9 against 2.41 BB/9) and its ninth-ranked FIP (3.09).

In other Giants news, the club has made a pair of noteworthy cuts behind the scenes, Baggarly relays. Longtime major league lefty and former Giant Dave Righetti is out after 21 years as an assistant. Righetti was the Giants’ pitch coach for 18 years, a span in which he helped the team to three World Series titles, before moving into a special assistant role prior to 2018. Along with Righetti, the Giants waved goodbye to Shawon Dunston, who held coaching roles with the organization for 12 years. Dunston had a long big league career as an infielder/outfielder and spent four seasons with the Giants.

Cardinals, Three Other Clubs In Touch With Yadier Molina

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Cardinals icon Yadier Molina has heard from three non-Cardinals clubs since free agency has begun, agent Melvin Roman tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, Roman did not specify which clubs have reached out to this point in the very young offseason. So far, this is shaping up to be something of a public-facing free agency for Molina, as Roman has already been willing to put his name on record in stating his client’s hope for a two-year deal as well.

It’s difficult to picture Molina in the uniform of any club other than the Cardinals after the 38-year-old has spent the past 17 years in St. Louis. But Molina raised some eyebrows among Cardinals fans earlier this year when he declared that he wanted to continue playing and was willing to do so even if it meant signing with a new club. Roman previously indicated that Molina is seeking a two-year deal that would carry him through age 40 and, perhaps, through the end of his likely Hall of Fame career.

While we don’t know yet — and may not know — which clubs plan to seriously pursue Molina, it’s not hard to look around the league and pick out some potential landing spots. There’s already speculation about the Yankees moving on from Gary Sanchez, for instance, and there would be few more dramatic ways to flip the narrative in the Bronx than to move from the free-swinging, defensively challenged Sanchez to the high-contact, defensively revered Molina.

Elsewhere, the Mets are on the lookout for a new backstop with Wilson Ramos hitting free agency. The Phillies could lose J.T. Realmuto this winter, and the Marlins are also expected to explore catching upgrades on the heels of their surprising playoff berth. The Angels could use an upgrade, too. Wherever Molina does go, it’s logical to expect him to sign with a club that has clear postseason aspirations — one that can offer him regular playing time. The nine-time Gold Glover and four-time Platinum Glover already has a pair of rings on his resume and surely would like to add another in the waning stages of his career.

Molina’s bat has tailed off since a solid 2018 showing, but he’s put together a respectable .268/.310/.388 batting line with 14 home runs and a lowly 13 percent strikeout rate through 608 plate appearances over the past two seasons. That level of production — an 86 wRC+ — is well south of the league average hitter but isn’t far off the mark of the performance of the average catcher. And Molina still has well-regarded defensive numbers, including above-average framing marks, a 31.7 percent caught-stealing rate since 2019 and his reputation as one of the game’s premier game callers.

One of the more intriguing storylines — or, for Cardinals fans, more unsettling storylines — to follow this winter will be the future of Molina and fellow Cardinals icon Adam Wainwright. Both aim to continue playing in 2021, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last month that the longtime teammates have even discussed the possibility of signing elsewhere as a pair in free agency. All else equal, both would prefer to return to St. Louis, it seems. However, the Cards do have a younger option behind the plate in Andrew Knizner, and there’s already been plenty of talk about the financial limitations the front office might face this offseason.

Orioles Name Chris Holt Pitching Coach

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2:55pm: Holmes has actually been promoted to assistant pitching coach, tweets Kubatko.

2:20pm: The Orioles are promoting Chris Holt to their vacant pitching coach position, general manager Mike Elias announced to reporters this afternoon (Twitter link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). He’ll take over for former big league righty Doug Brocail, who had held the post for the past two seasons but wasn’t retained for a third year on the job.

Holt initially came to the Baltimore organization from the Astros. He’d previously served as the Houston’s assistant director of pitching, where he worked with Elias when Elias as an assistant general manager. Holt’s first title with the O’s was minor league pitching coordinator, but he was promoted to director of pitching last offseason — a role in which he had a more direct connection with Brocail and the staff. Holt will retain that director of pitching title but will now see his duties expand into the big league dugout.

Holt has previously worked to develop individualized pitching plans for the Orioles’ pitchers at both the minor league and big league levels. MLB.com’s Joe Trezza wrote recently that Holt was the internal favorite to take over the pitching coach role and has drawn praise for his “fluency” in analytic principles and his ability to communicate that information to players who aren’t as familiar with the data. He worked closely with many of the club’s young arms at the alternate training site in 2020, Trezza notes, including Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer.

Elias added that bullpen coach Darren Holmes will return for a second season as the club’s bullpen coach and work with Holt to oversee the staff as a whole. The Orioles hired Holmes last December after a five-year stint as the Rockies’ bullpen coach.

Cubs Reinstate Three From IL; Rex Brothers Elects Free Agency

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Cubs lefty Rex Brothers rejected an outright assignment after clearing waivers and has instead opted for free agency, tweets Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. The Cubs have also reinstated James Norwood, Manuel Rodriguez and Brad Wieck from the 45-day injured list, bringing their current 40-man roster to 34 players.

Brothers, 33, pitched in just three games for the Cubs in 2020 and has had much of a sample of MLB work since his 2017 run with the Braves. The former Rockies prospect was the No. 34 overall pick back and got out to a nice start through three seasons in Colorado before his already shaky control got out of hand in 2014.

Over the past six years, Brothers has bounced around between the Rockies, Yankees, Braves and Cubs organizations. He’s seen intermittent action at the big league level en route to a 5.77 ERA and 101-to-64 K/BB ratio in 93 1/3 frames in that time. Brothers’ heater averaged 95.3 mph in this year’s tiny sample of innings. That velocity from the left side should get him another look as a minor league depth option with another club.

Norwood, 26, missed most of the season due to shoulder troubles. The 24-year-old Rodriguez didn’t appear in the big leagues this year but went on the 60-day IL due to a biceps strain late in the year, giving the Cubs some late flexibility on the roster. Wieck, 29, went down with a hamstring strain after one game and did not return.

Astros Exercise Brooks Raley’s Option

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Nov. 2: Raley’s club option called for a split contract in 2021, reports Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). He’ll earn at a $2MM rate on the big league roster, but the contract calls for him to earn at a $250K rate in the minors. If Raley pitches like he did for Houston in 2020, he should make the roster and earn the entirety of that salary, but it’s a notable distinction that it’s not a straight, fully guaranteed $2MM salary.

Nov. 1: The Astros are picking up Brooks Raley’s $2MM club option for 2021, GM James Click informed reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). The 32-year-old only has one-plus year of MLB service. Nevertheless, under the terms of the contract he signed last offseason, he’ll be eligible for free agency at the end of next season.

Raley parlayed a solid five-year run with the KBO’s Lotte Giants into a deal with the Reds. While he was let go by Cincinnati after just four appearances, he found a home in Houston. The Astros acquired Raley from the Reds for a player to be named later in August.

The southpaw went on toss 16 relief innings in the regular season. His 3.94 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but Raley racked up 21 strikeouts against four walks in Houston, holding opposing hitters to a paltry .143/.213/.339 line.  He worked another 5.2 innings across eight appearances during Houston’s playoff run, allowing two earned runs with a 9:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

40-Man Roster Additions: 11/1/20

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With the offseason kicking off, most teams are bringing some inactive players back onto their rosters. Here’s the latest:

  • The Rockies announced they’ve activated outfielder Ian Desmond from the restricted list. Outfielder David Dahl and right-handers Peter Lambert and Scott Oberg are back from the 60-day injured list, putting Colorado’s 40-man roster tally at 38. Desmond opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns and is entering his final year under contract. Dahl underwent shoulder surgery in September, capping a miserable season. Lambert, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery in July. Oberg unfortunately also had to go under the knife, undergoing thoracic outlet surgery to alleviate blood clots in September.
  • The Indians reinstated right-hander Jefry Rodríguez from the 45-day injured list (via Tribeinsider). While working at Cleveland’s alternate training site, the 27-year-old went down with a strain in his throwing shoulder in early September. Rodríguez worked 98.2 innings of 5.20 ERA ball with the Nationals and Indians between 2018-19 but didn’t pitch in the majors in 2020. Cleveland’s 40-man roster now sports 35 players.
  • The Rays activated pitchers Jalen Beeks, Yonny Chirinos, Colin Poche and Cody Reed from the 45-day injured list (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Each of Beeks, Chirinos and Poche has undergone Tommy John surgery over the past few months, meaning none will be ready (or even particularly close) at the start of next season. Reed suffered an injury to his left pinky finger shortly after being acquired from the Reds. He’s expected to be a full-go for spring training, Topkin notes.
  • The Mariners have brought outfielder Mitch Haniger, catcher Tom Murphy and right-hander Andres Muñoz off the 45-day injured list, per Greg Johns of MLB.com. Haniger has dealt with a series of brutal injuries since emerging as one of the sport’s quieter stars, but he’s finally expected to be healthy next spring. Like Haniger, Murphy missed the entire 2020 season; the backstop broke a bone in his foot on the heels of a breakout 2019. Muñoz underwent Tommy John surgery while part of the Padres’ system in March. Still, the Mariners acquired the fireballing 21-year-old before the trade deadline as part of the return for Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla. Seattle now has 35 players on the 40-man roster.

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