This has not been an especially active Winter Meetings week, but the Rangers and White Sox did swing a major trade on its first night. The deal saw Chicago acquire right-hander Lance Lynn from Texas in exchange for righty Dane Dunning and lefty Avery Weems.
It was an aggressive move by the White Sox, who just reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Lynn finished near the top of the American League in Cy Young voting in each of his two seasons with the Rangers, so he should help give the White Sox rotation one of the majors’ best top threes. They already had Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel, who joined Lynn among the AL’s most effective starters in 2020. Lynn will now reunite with new manager Tony La Russa, who was the Cardinals’ skipper when the hurler debuted in 2011.
While Lynn has long been a quality arm, another plus is his highly affordable salary for 2021. With $8MM coming his way next season, the 33-year-old won’t make much of a dent in Chicago’s payroll. The problem is that the White Sox did have to surrender a couple of promising younger pitchers to acquire him.
Dunning, a former first-round pick, made his big league debut last season after a rather impressive minor league tenure. The 25-year-old held his own in Chicago, where he logged a 3.97 ERA/3.99 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate in seven starts and 34 innings. That’s a small sample size, but Dunning’s track record makes it easy for the Rangers to dream that he will be a key cog on their roster. He’s under control for six more seasons, so it’s possible Dunning will be in the Lone Star State for the long haul.
Weems does not seem to have Dunning’s potential, nor has he appeared in the majors yet, but he also has a chance to be a useful piece. The 2019 sixth-round pick from the University of Arizona shut down rookie ball hitters that year, when he recorded an outstanding 2.09 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 60 1/3 frames. Baseball America’s Josh Norris wrote after the Lynn trade that Weems’ future is probably as a reliever, but he “could move quickly to the upper levels.”
The White Sox are clearly banking on Lynn’s presence helping them contend for a World Series title in 2021, whereas the Rangers – who are in a rebuild – acquired two controllable players in letting him go. How do you think the two teams fared in the deal? (Poll links for app users: White Sox, Rangers)
Chicago did a good job only to give up an injury prone starter for him. from Texas’s perspective, Dunning is a nice pickup, but cant help but think they could have gotten a better 2nd piece or even a 3rd one if they traded him earlier.
Pretty good return for one year of lance Lynn. They probably should have traded him at last year’s deadline but who knows what they were offered.
Like when? He said he would sit out the year if traded this summer. Not many options.
@oz10
Really? I never heard that. You got a link to an article or something? My apologies if that’s true this is the first I’m hearing of this.
yeah that’s not one ive hear either
It was mentioned in the prior mlbtraderumors article about the trade.
Here’s the article in the Athletic, subscription reqiuired
theathletic.com/2246560/2020/12/08/rosenthal-the-r…
It was literally mentioned in the very website you are currently commenting on…..
It was in an article that was published yesterday, right here on MLBTR.
I didn’t see it yesterday must have missed it. I’m going back now for it. I don’t have a subscription to the athletic unfortunately but it’s something I might splurge on soon.
Dunning already had the TJ surgery. Usually after guys have it, after they do the rehab and come back, they are pretty solid for a while. So I think Texas gets a good starter who is likely to be healthy.
In seeing a couple of Dunning’s starts, I like him. I think he will exceed expectations and wind up an above average starter. Guys with good command/control sometimes have a lot more success than pitchers with flashier stuff. I think Dunning will be better than Cease in the long run, we will see.
He’s not really injury prone just because he had TJ…. I actually think that the trade is better for the rangers than the Sox but it’s good for both. The Rangers just got an innings eater for the next 5 years who was a top 50 prospect, and showed he can be effective at the major leagues. At worst he an innings eating 4th starter. At best he’s a number 2 starter. Either way is great from them.
They couldn’t trade him earlier because he said if he didn’t go to a team he wanted to he would have taken the covid-19 opt out. Lynn had all the power at the deadline
If Kluber is throwing well, I’d like him for the 4th starter.
If he’s healthy and they sign him I would hate to face the White Sox next season.
I read that he’s clocked at 92.
Really? That’s awesome I didn’t even know if he was throwing yet. Someone might luck out if the sign Kluber
Read he’s throwing bullpens.
Kluber’s injury was not to a rotator cuff or elbow flexor, which bodes well for him. Heck yeah he would be worth a flyer, he was epic as recently as 2018. He will be 35 but is one of those badass guys that you could see coming all the way back to be a very good pitcher. Since the Sox won’t spend any money in free agency, he would be perfect high ceiling candidate. Get him on a 1 year deal with a club option, and maybe they hit the jackpot with him.
Wait, fans so far have given an A grade to a team that held onto Lance Lynn way longer than they should have and got kind of a middling return for one of the best starters in baseball over the last 2 years? Y’all are way too lenient. Lynn is a top 5-10 starter since he got to Texas and is so cheap that any team could have fit him in their budget. Dunning and Weems are not an “A” return.
A for Chicago, C or D for Texas.
While he has been a top 5-10 starter and affordable, it’s only for one year. Plus it’s not like he’s 28. 2021 will be his age 34 season.
Everyone says the return is for one year of Lance Lynn. If the WSox negotiate and extend his contract a couple of years, then it isn’t for just one year.
I think you are too harsh. For one, the fact you think Lynn should have been traded earlier should not factor into answering this question. I gave both teams an A. For the direction each team is heading it was perfect. Texas saves $8mil and gets a plug and play young starter. Texas did well.
Did you not see that Lynn said he would opt out the remainder of the year if he was traded to a team be did not like? Trust me, I was all over JD like the rest of us but now that news has been leaked, I understand why he held him. Given his age and contract year, I actually have no issue with this trade. We have time to let these guys work into our future.
Baseball Reference? How much longer is the advertising for STATHEAD gonna
be on your front page? Plez go back to other format.
I love you i love you. The ad is just going on to long.
I can’t help but wonder, with Lynn entering his age-34 season, how much more value he’s going to provide in 2021 than Dunning — not to even touch on the fact that TEX has Dunning for another 5 years.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I think given the White Sox current window, getting another proven arm was absolutely the right move, and a necessary risk for them to take.
Prior to hindsight’s eventual revelation, as of today, I think both teams did well here.
He’ll give them a durable 200 innings of a mid 3’s ERA and a bunch of strikeouts, plus take stress off of the bullpen since he can go 7 innings. I reckon it feels good for the Sox to not have so many post TJ rehab youngsters on their roster and finally add some durability to the rotation.
If he can give a mid 3s ERA when facing the Tigers’ murderer’s row of TBD, TBD, Miggy, TBD, and JaCoby Jones? He better be Satchel Paige. Reincarnate.
It might be a little bit of an overpay but lance is a really good starter on a dirt cheap contract. The thing that isn’t mentioned enough about Lynn is that he goes deep into games. He isn’t a guy that’s gonna be out after 5 innings. In a normal season he should easily give you over 200 innings pitched and will keep your bullpen fresh. The rangers potentially got a #3 starter for years to come. They might have given up a lot but you got to be aggressive if you want to compete. It should work out for both parties.
If Lynn gets a ring with Chicago, then they won the trade, as the trade allowed them to win said title. If Lynn does not ring a wing with Chicago, then Texas wins the trade.
Both teams can win a trade. Doesn’t have to be one or the other.
I like the move for both sides. A win now gets a win now piece and a retooling team gets a decent arm for the next 5 years.
I said A for both because it was an even trade and accomplishes the intended purpose for each team. White Sox needed a reliable starter upgrade to make a deep playoff run, and they got it. Texas got a good return for Lynn and added talent to dip into a rebuild/retool. Great move for both teams
Hate to give up Dunning, hopefully Lynn continues to pitch well, sox should have a very good staff.
I assumed Bauer was not a realistic target, so that made Lynn the best-case scenario for the White Sox rotation. I’m comfortable with a significant cost for a significant player. I gave both teams an A.
This was a win for both teams. The Sox got a very good starter who is fairly cheap on top of it. They need him. However, Texas got a very good #3 or 4 in Dunning. I’m probably higher on him than most. He’s just back from surgery so he’s going to get stronger this year. He’s pretty good. And controllable.
Weems is also pretty good. Obviously he’s far from making it but he’s a really good prospect. If anything, I think the Sox slightly overpaid. But, Lynn could very well be the piece that takes Chicago to the Series.
Fine deal for both sides. The biggest loser in all this is the nationals. If you know your baseball, you know why.
However, the Nats did get a piece that was critical to their WS win, so I think they made that Eaton trade every time
This was a good trade for both teams. Sox have good pitching depth so they were able to let Dunning go, and Lynn has established that he is one of the better pitchers in MLB, which is what the Sox need.
Even if Dunning just repeats what he did last year, that’s a good guy to have in your rotation. And as he could easily end up being better than that.
I like it for both sides. Good on Chicago for waiting until the off-season for a lower price tag. Also like it for Texas getting a cost controlled starter that can potentially eat innings.
I think the Sox sold Dunning at a good time, i have some questions about how his command and home run rate will hold up in Arlington, and he’s a little more advanced in terms of his age for where he’s at in his career, but i think even if he ends up being more a middle to back end guy, it’s a good move for a team that has lacked starting pitching depth over the years.
So when have you taken a class and gotten your grade on the first day? Yeesh. Let’s see this out.
I think it was a B for Chicago. Lynn is great, but he’s 34 and they only have him for one season. I also really like Dunning, and giving up 6 years of control for him is a very big trade-off. But if they win a WS, it was all worth it.
As for Texas, I really like the trade from our side. 6 years of Dunning, and I see 3 starter potential in him. I love his stuff. Add a pretty good lotto ticket in Avery, and we’ve got an A return. Great move, and great way to capitalize on Lynn.
I think the trade works for both sides but I also think it could really be a big long term pickup for the Rangers. I mean if Dunning improves even just a little on his numbers from last year he’s essentially already as effective as Lynn and he’s only 26 and controllable for several more seasons. I get it from CHW perspective though they wanted a proven commodity to plug into their rotation so I think it works on both ends. I just think the incremental improvement may wind up not being all that significant assuming Dunning produces at or above his 2020 level. I mean he had a 3.99 ERA which is only marginally worse than Lynn’s 3.34 — so while there’s certainly more risk involved with Dunning — it’s also possible that he’ll outperform Lynn — if not next season, at least over the course of his controllable years in TEX.
A fair trade. B for both sides. Lynn improves the Sox for one year on a value contract. Dunning could be good over the next six years.
I’m with you on an even grade for both teams although I voted A for each.
Lance Lynn was the best starting pitcher reportedly available this offseason who isn’t named Trevor Bauer. The White Sox needed a TOR to join Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel to help them make a deep run in the postseason. They got one on a dirt cheap contract, albeit for one season. That’s OK because it allows the White Sox to be more patient with Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet in so far as their development as starting pitchers. Kopech can now begin 2021 at AAA after not having pitched an official game since late 2018 due to TJ surgery and his opt-out this past season for personal reasons. Meanwhile, Crochet figures to be on the Chris Sale path towards a rotation spot as a late inning lefty in the pen this season before earning a starting gig in 2022. The possibility also exists for the White Sox to extend Lynn in the next year, something he has stated he would be amenable to.
I’m also a big fan of Dane Dunning who figures to be a solid rotation piece with excellent command and good stuff. Despite not having a 70 or 80 grade fastball he has continued to miss bats at every professional level as well as having the ability to induce a lot of ground balls. Dunning has a high baseball pitching IQ. He reminds me of Kyle Hendricks with perhaps a little better stuff.
Since Hendricks’ first full season in 2015, he is 11th among starters in fWar and 8th in FIP among starters with at least 900 innings. I think it is quite a little too lofty to compare him to Hendricks.
I think Dunning settles in as a 2.5-3 fWar guy. A real good pitcher.
Either way, It’s a good deal for both sides.
I think this is an A trade for both sides. Chicago gets a proven ace to solidify their rotation, while Texas gets a controllable starter who can be on the team the next time they are competitive.
Two questions when evaluating the trade from the Rangers perspective: (1) Can the players they received be expected to provide good value given the team’s needs? (2) Could they have negotiated for a better return from the White Sox or another team?
Texas needs starting pitching. Dunning has top prospect talent and has already shown he can hold his own at the major league level. He’s under team control for 6 years, so even if Texas isn’t competitive for a couple of years, he can still be an important part of their rotation in years to come. Weems is a lottery ticket, and anything they get from him as a bonus. So the answer to the first question is definitely “yes”.
On the second question, it’s hard to know. Since Lynn is only under control for one year, the suitors are limited, but there are several teams beside the White Sox who need starting pitching and who think they can contend in 2021 — e.g., Blue Jays, Padres, Twins, Mets, maybe a couple others. The Mets and the Blue Jays seem more inclined to spend in free agency than give up prospects (and might have their sights set on bigger trade prizes if they do go that route). Under the circumstances, I don’t think the Rangers were going to get significantly better offers than Dunning/Weems, so the answer to the second question is “probably not”.
I give the Rangers an “A”.
I mean, it’s possible both teams can win here.
White Sox think they have the horses to go deep in 2021. This is the type of move you make when you think you are close. You have to give up something to get something.
Lynn is not a big game pitcher
He might up his game a bit now having that Sox lineup behind him.
Since when did the Rangers play in big games?
Does he have the makings of a varsity athlete?
FIP and xFIP both say Dunning actually pitched slightly better than Lynn did in 2020. How anyone can say giving up six years of Dunning plus another prospect for one year of Lynn is a win for Chicago is baffling to me.
While I think Dunning will be a good #4 starter, The Sox need a top of the rotation arm like Lynn. Lynn has been a borderline top 10 starter in baseball over the last 2 years.. I think the Sox have a good shot at extending Lynn too.
Another thing to note is that Dunning pitched against the Royals 2x, Pittsburgh 1x and Detroit. Pitching against those awful lineups inflated his stats. Of all the young Sox arms, Dunning was the most movable.
Go one step further. In his 7 outings, he was lights out against the Royals, Pirates, and Twins. He got lit up against the Tigers, Cubs, Indians and Royals, and then famously couldn’t get out of the first in a do or die situation against the As. So draw your own conclusions from the limited 35 inning sample.
A for both clubs. Losers are the Yankees, Angels,and other clubs who want to contend, need a solid starter who can give them 200 innings with 200 K’s, and a sub four ERA….all for less than $10 million next season.
This is a joke, right? Dunn is young and a #3 MLB starter for years to come. Lynn is 33 with one year of control left on his contract. The Rangers could add insult to injury by re-signing Lynn after next season. Advantage: Rangers.
Or Lynn could resign with the Sox and the Rangers #3 starter continues a pattern of dominating the Pirates and Royals and getting hit around by teams like the Indians, Cubs and Tigers. Must be nice to have a crystal ball eh, ChiSoxCity?
Ranger fans will like Dunning. Not overpowering but good control and a nice curveball. Good competitor. Warming up to lynn, hoping he pitches well and signs a two year extension.
Both come on looking good in this trade. Dunning will be Solid starter for years to come for the Rangers and Lynn makes the Sox a legit contender. Both sides did well here.
The Lynn trade is a “A” for the White Sox since they did not have to break the bank for a reliable third starter for a deep push in the postseason. Meanwhile it’s hard to give the Rangers a grade right now until we see what they do in the next year or two with signing to drafting players. From my understanding the Rangers are looking to blow up their team due to financial issues.
I thought it was a good trade on both sides. It shows the win now attitude that the White Sox have. It also boosts a Rangers team that really lacks pitching. Their system is stacked with young hitters like Jung, Huff, Apostel, and Taveras, but aside from Winn and Crouse, there isn’t much pitching. Dunning helps that, and Weems is a decent flier for a system that lacks LHP.
Ultimately I think the Sox lose this trade if they can’t win a title or keep Lynn long term. Unfortunately this is the reality of “win now” teams that give up future stock in order to get quick returns, The Dodgers have sustained long term success by not shipping top end prospects. I consider Dunning a top end prospect, so signing Lynn is key to the success of this trade for Chicago,
I put it as an A for Texas and a B for Chicago. With Gray available and the Reds apparently willing to accept less-than-fair-value returns to slash payroll, I’d have rather the Sox threw in an additional lesser prospect and gotten Gray with this 2 years of control. I like Dunning and think he’ll be solid for the Rangers, but I see his ceiling as a #3 on a decent team, maybe a #2 on a really bad team. Still, 5 years of that, some of which might be on a winning club, for one year of Lynn during a rebuild is a strong move.
Dane Dunning will be missed. Without Dunning, I guess Sox can hope on Kopech, Cease, Crochet, Stiever or maybe down the road see Kelley or Thompson.