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How The Delayed Season Impacts The Angels

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As is the case with just about every team in the majors, the coronavirus-forced delay to the start of the season will have an effect on the Angels. It may be at least two or three months before we see any meaningful games, which isn’t necessarily horrible news for the Angels’ rotation. Last season, the organization’s fifth straight without a playoff berth and its fourth in a row with more losses than wins, the Halos’ starting staff was especially ineffective. The club’s starters ranked toward the bottom of the league in virtually every key statistic and didn’t have a single hurler amass 100 or more innings.

[RELATED: Angels Offseason In Review]

One important reason the Angels’ rotation had such difficulty in 2019? The absence of two-way star Shohei Ohtani, who could only DH – not pitch – after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in October 2018. The hard-throwing Ohtani dazzled on the mound as a rookie that year, albeit over a mere 10 starts and 51 2/3 innings, with a 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP and 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9. The Angels desperately needed that type of front-line production from someone last year, and perhaps Ohtani will be able to provide it over a larger sample of work this season. In a normal season, though, the Angels would have had to go at least several weeks before finding out whether Ohtani would be able to pick up where he left off as a pitcher two years ago.

At last check about a month and a half ago, the 25-year-old Ohtani wasn’t going to be ready to return to the Angels’ rotation until the middle of May. Now, with the season having been pushed back, the Angels might be in position to get a full year from Ohtani the pitcher. That’s welcome news for a team that, despite its best efforts, was not able to pull in a high-end starter during the offseason.

The Angels’ staff also could be more likely to get a whole season (or something close to it) from righty Griffin Canning. His status is less certain than Ohtani’s, though. The 23-year-old received “biological injections” in his balky right elbow March 11, at which point it was reported more would be known on Canning’s status in three to four weeks. But if Canning emerges with a clean bill of health and can take the hill in 2020, it would be yet another boon for the Angels. He enjoyed a respectable debut showing last year, after all, tossing 90 1/3 frames of 4.58 ERA/4.37 FIP ball with 9.56 K/9 against 2.99 BB/9.

If the season opened when it was supposed to on March 26, it’s unclear whom the Angels would have relied on after Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. Patrick Sandoval, Matt Andriese, Jaime Barria and Dillon Peters are the other starting possibilities on their 40-man roster. It’s fair to say there isn’t a ton of upside in that group, but getting Ohtani and Canning back would change that and give the Angels a better chance to vie for a playoff berth.

Elsewhere, the Angels are anticipating the MLB debut of Jo Adell – a hard-charging outfield prospect who ranks as one of the sport’s elite farmhands. The soon-to-be 21-year-old seemed like a sure thing to come up sometime this season, but will that change with a shortened schedule? Will the Angels decide Adell needs a good deal more seasoning at the Triple-A level, where he accrued 132 homer-less plate appearances last season? And what about service-time considerations? That’s something every team keeps an eye on with respect to its top prospects, but we don’t know how baseball will sort that out in a truncated campaign. And, of course, whether Adell does premiere in 2020 will have an impact on the Angels’ current right field choices, Brian Goodwin and David Fletcher chief among them.

Up in the front office, the executive who drafted Adell – general manager Billy Eppler – is entering a contract year. One has to wonder if a season of fewer than 162 games will affect his status. For example, if the Angels struggle, will owner Arte Moreno be more inclined to give Eppler the benefit of the doubt because of these strange circumstances? That’s just one of the intriguing questions the Angels are facing heading into what will be an unusual season of baseball (if we get one at all).

Extension Candidates: NL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East and NL Central. Here are some names to chew on from the NL West …

Diamondbacks

The Snakes have managed to control costs, compete, and build their farm system all at the same time. It’s a tricky balancing act to manage over any length of time. And extensions are a key component. Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar, and David Peralta are already playing on extensions. There are some other candidates on the roster as well.

Several Arizona veterans are conceivable candidates, not that any seems particularly likely to agree to terms. Hurler Robbie Ray is heading into a walk year, but comes with a pretty wide risk/upside spread. Recently acquired outfielder Starling Marte is already 31 years of age, so the club probably won’t be in a rush to work out a new deal with two years of control remaining. Reliever Archie Bradley is also two years from the open market; an extension could make sense in his case. The team will be looking at a big arbitration bill next year if Bradley racks up saves, while he’d surely be open to eliminating some personal health/performance risk.

The younger class of players contains some rather intriguing possibilities. Catcher Carson Kelly and starter Luke Weaver are both entering their final pre-arbitration season (the former via Super Two status). Though 2019 trade deadline addition Zac Gallen isn’t even close to arbitration, it could be an opportune moment to get something done.

Dodgers

When the Dodgers acquired superstar outfielder Mookie Betts, they knew they were giving up significant value for just one season of performance. Now, with the season on hold, there’s newfound uncertainty for all involved — particularly given that it’s not even clear yet whether Betts will hit the open market as expected this coming fall. After a few happy weeks together this spring, could the sides take advantage of the lull to discuss a longer-term relationship?

There’s no evidence of that happening, but it’d be a potential coup for the Dodgers. It would also be extremely costly. No doubt the team is at least as intrigued by the idea of finding some savings by locking in superstar slugger Cody Bellinger. Trouble is, the 24-year-old just landed a whopping $11.5MM contract as a Super Two. His arbitration eligibility could easily set an overall record and he’ll expect a long-term deal to reflect that and pay at a premium rate for any future free-agent campaigns.

There was a time when Corey Seager would’ve seemed an obvious extension target, but his place in the team’s plans is uncertain after some injury-limited campaigns. More interesting at this point are some of the newest members of the L.A. roster. Backstop Will Smith and infielder Gavin Lux each carry huge promise and some MLB experience. Though the Dodgers haven’t led the league with aggressive early-career extensions, both of these players are sensible targets.

Giants

Yikes. It’s not a good sign to see a roster that lacks for extension candidates — unless, perhaps, many young players have already agreed to deals. In this case, the Giants have a combination of veterans playing out underperforming contracts and largely un-established younger players who don’t really seem in line for any long-term commitment.

If you squint hard enough, you could see Mauricio Dubon as a candidate if the team has really fallen in love since acquiring him last summer. But that’s probably unnecessarily aggressive. Otherwise, basically every conceivable possibility has too many areas of concern to warrant serious consideration. Perhaps the situation will look different this time next year — someone might step up with a big season; top prospects like Joey Bart or Heliot Ramos may turn into candidates for early-career extensions — but it’s hard to see much reason for talks at the moment.

Padres

The ideal outcome would be to secure the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. with a deal along the lines of the Braves’ pact with Ronald Acuna Jr.. The Friars will probably have to keep dreaming about that team-friendly arrangement, but there has been some reporting indicating the sides could hold talks. Tatis himself said in late February that nothing was cooking, but there’s every reason to keep a conversation going if there’s mutual interest. Righty Chris Paddack could certainly also be a candidate as well, though perhaps the added risks on the pitching side will keep the sides apart for the time being.

There are other younger players that could hold appeal in the right situation. On the position player side, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero, and Francisco Mejia could be considered. And among pitchers, you could easily see the merit of locking in Dinelson Lamet or Joey Lucchesi.

Oh, and the Friars do have one notable veteran in an obvious extension stance: closer Kirby Yates. There’s reason to believe the sides have some interest, but it’s not clear how likely it is a deal will come together. Yates is a late-emerging star reliever who’s two days from his 33rd birthday and one season away from free agency. His age limits his overall contractual upside, but he was absurdly dominant in 2019. It’s certainly possible to imagine both player and team seeing the sense in a deal.

Rockies

The Rox already have long-term control over German Marquez and Nolan Arenado. So … why not add Jon Gray and Trevor Story, making a strong core four over the long haul? Well, it’s not a simple situation for the Colorado organization. Trouble is, some brutal fortune in the free agent market has left little financial flexibility and a top-heavy roster. We can’t rule out deals for Gray and/or Story, but they’ll both cost a ton and would be hard to pull off — particularly given the ongoing drama with Arenado.

That’s not to say the Rockies couldn’t still look to other ways of achieving value. In particular, outfielders David Dahl and Sam Hilliard could be interesting targets. The former has had quite a few injuries and the latter has only spent about a month in the majors, but those factors might also drive down the price tag and with it the contractual upside. Otherwise, you could perhaps see some daylight for a deal with reliever Carlos Estevez if the Rox are fully sold on his 2019 showing. But the team already made a deal with its best reliever (Scott Oberg) and probably doesn’t need any more long-term bullpen entanglements.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton’s Calf Injury

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Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has continued to rehab his injured calf during the coronavirus hiatus. Since last we checked in, it seems he has made significant progress.

In comments to Meredith Marakovits on YES Network, Yanks manager Aaron Boone indicated that Stanton is more or less back to full speed. (Via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, on Twitter.) Per Boone, Stanton would “probably be ready to go” if spring contests were still on the schedule.

It remains to be seen just when Stanton will actually have a chance to re-take the field. But it’s certainly good to hear that he has improved so much even without any need for urgency.

Stanton had been expected to miss Opening Day but will now be expected to suit up when the sport finally restarts. Of course, that presumes he’ll be able to avoid any further injuries while working out during the layoff. Stanton dealt with a series of maladies in 2019, ultimately appearing in only 18 contests.

Mariners Release Sam Tuivailala

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March 23: Tuivailala has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent, Divish tweets.

March 20: The Mariners have placed reliever Sam Tuivailala on release waivers, per a club announcement. That leaves the team with two 40-man roster openings.

Tuivailala was looking to turn in a full season after a torn Achilles shortened both his 2018 and 2019 campaigns. He hadn’t yet appeared in a spring contest when activities were halted.

Over the offseason, the M’s agreed to a $800K arbitration deal with Tuivailala. He’ll still be entitled to 45 days of termination pay, at least in theory. Just how that will be handled given the delay and near-certain shortening of the 2020 season remains to be seen.

Tuivailala, 27, has mostly been quite effective in his MLB career. Through 127 innings, he carries a 3.33 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He enjoyed some strong results upon his return in 2019, allowing just six earned runs on 13 hits with a 27:11 K/BB ratio.

In his return last year, Tuivailala delivered his fastballs (four and two-seam) more than two miles an hour slower on average than he had previously. But he still sat just under 94 mph. This spring, however Tuivailala had been limited by shoulder fatigue. When last he took the mound, the hurler was working only in the mid- to upper-80s with his fastball, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). That lack off velocity and ongoing concerns surrounding his shoulder quite likely were the primary factors behind the Mariners’ decision.

How The Delayed Season Impacts The Phillies

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Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne took a look at how the delayed start of the 2020 season will impact the Yankees. We’ll be running out a look at how all 30 clubs will be impacted in the days and weeks to come.  And since we’ve already tackled the Phillies’ Offseason in Review, let’s now turn to how this will impact their roster choices down the road.

First and foremost, left fielder Andrew McCutchen should have ample time to rehabilitate his knee. The 33-year-old tore his left ACL last year and was expected to be ready to join the Phillies’ lineup at some point in April. With the season pushed back until at least May 10 — quite likely longer than that — McCutchen should be good to go for the year’s first game, barring any sort of setback.

He may not be the MVP-caliber talent he once was, but McCutchen was an important part of the Philadelphia lineup all the same. In 59 games and 292 plate appearances, he posted a .256/.378/.457 batting line with 10 homers, 12 doubles and a triple. Cutch’s career-best 16.4 percent walk rate and sky-high OBP were badly missed on a team that posted a pedestrian .319 OBP on the whole. That mark tied them for 19th in MLB, and McCutchen’s primary replacement, Jay Bruce, had the fourth-worst OBP in the Majors at .261 (min. 300 plate appearances).

McCutchen’s likely inclusion on the Opening Day roster should impact the bench mix as well. His presence would push Bruce into a more limited role and likely mean that one of Nick Williams or Roman Quinn misses out on the 26-man roster. Given that Williams has a minor league option remaining and Quinn does not, it seems likeliest that Williams would be the odd man out. The Phils have explored trading Williams in the past, and one would imagine that with a full-strength outfield that possibility would be a bit likelier.

The composition of the bench is of extra note given the abnormally large slate of non-roster players in camp hoping to secure a backup job with the Phillies; Josh Harrison, Phil Gosselin, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe and Ronald Torreyes are among the slew of infielders Philadelphia inked to minor league pacts this winter.

On the pitching side of things, the projected delay ought to give right-hander Tommy Hunter time to ramp up. He’s on the mend from 2019 elbow surgery and was expected to miss the first month of the year prior to the shutdown. Hunter’s health is far from a given after he missed nearly all of last year with a forearm injury, which is why he took a one-year, make-good deal that only promises him an $850K base salary. But when healthy, Hunter has turned in 69 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with the Phillies. Considering the overwhelming number of injuries that left the Philly bullpen in a state of disrepair a year ago, any healthy contributions from the veteran Hunter will be a most welcome addition.

As is the case with the bench, the Phillies have a deluge of veterans competing for bullpen jobs on non-roster deals. Francisco Liriano, Drew Storen, Bud Norris, Anthony Swarzak and Blake Parker were all invited to camp. A healthy Hunter leaves one less spot to win.

Things are less certain for two other relievers: Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson. The former underwent an MRI after experiencing a setback in his recovery from last summer’s elbow troubles and acknowledged significant concern. With a poor enough diagnosis, he could miss the entire 2020 season regardless, but if non-surgical treatment is recommended, the delay could buy him time to rehab. Robertson, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery last August. The club’s hope had been that the right-hander could return in the season’s second half, and if the season doesn’t get underway until the summer, he’d theoretically be available for a greater portion of the year.

Perhaps the most interesting scenario is what the implications could be for the rotation. As Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer explored over the weekend, the delayed start to the season lessens the need for the Phillies to monitor the workload of prized pitching prospect Spencer Howard. Considered one of the game’s 40 best prospects by each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, Howard totaled just 99 1/3 innings between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League in 2019.

General manager Matt Klentak has previously spoken about the need to make sure he has enough innings left in his arm to contribute down the stretch, and a shorter season should reduce his workload overall. That could also afford Howard fewer innings to develop in Double-A and Triple-A, but Howard ripped through Class-A Advanced en route to a Double-A promotion and found similar success there in 2019 (2.35 ERA, 38-to-9 K/BB ratio in 30 2/3 innings). He’ll surely open the season in the minors, but a similarly aggressive ascension in 2020 shouldn’t be ruled out.

Howard’s timeline to the big leagues will directly impact the bullpen composition and perhaps the very future in the organization for once-touted righties Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta. Both have a minor league option remaining, and it’s possible that both could yet emerge as viable pieces in the ’pen (or that injuries elsewhere in the rotation will keep one or both in a starting role). Howard’s emergence as a top-half-of-the-rotation complement to Aaron Nola is a best-case scenario for the organization as a whole, but that could still have a significant individual impact on pitchers like Pivetta, Velasquez, Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin, Enyel De Los Santos and JoJo Romero.

Red Sox Acquire Jhonny Pereda From Cubs To Complete Travis Lakins Trade

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The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve acquired minor league catcher Jhonny Pereda from the Cubs as the player to be named later in the January trade that sent righty Travis Lakins from Boston to Chicago. Lakins, oddly enough, is no longer even in the Cubs organization; he was claimed off waivers by the Orioles just 10 days after the Cubs acquired him. Pereda is not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary for the Sox.

Pereda, 24 next month, had a rough year in Double-A this past season, slashing .241/.336/.305 with just two home runs and 16 doubles in 398 plate appearances. Pereda caught a third of the runners who attempted to steal against him and won a minor league Gold Glove Award, but he also turned in poor framing metrics, per Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America ranked Pereda as the Cubs’ No. 26 prospect last offseason, before the poor 2019 showing, calling him a potential backup catcher with a bit of offensive upside due to his on-base skills (while also pointing out an utter dearth of power).

Regardless of how Pereda turns out, things unfolded in a sub-optimal manner for the Cubs, who presumably hoped that they’d be able to pass Lakins through waivers and retain him without committing a 40-man roster spot to the righty. That didn’t prove to be the case, however, as the Orioles (who hold the No. 2 waiver priority) quickly nabbed him and have continued to carry him on the 40-man roster.

AL Notes: McBroom, Tuivailala, Choi

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Royals first baseman Ryan McBroom caught the eye of Mike Matheny before Kansas City even acquired him and before Matheny was the team’s manager, writes Alec Lewis of The Athletic in an interesting profile of the 27-year-old (subscription required). Matheny, a special advisor with the Royals last year, was taking in a Red Sox Triple-A game to watch his son, Tate; Boston’s Triple-A club was playing the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, and Matheny happened to catch the Scranton club on a night when McBroom blasted two of the 26 long balls he hit in Triple-A last year. Two days later — and not through any recommendation of his own — Matheny was further surprised when the Royals acquired McBroom from the Yankees. As Lewis details, McBroom’s play following a September call-up and a very strong spring have positioned him to occupy a bench spot with the Royals at the very least.

Some more news from around the American League..

  • It was something of a surprise to see the Mariners cut ties with right-handed reliever Sam Tuivailala last week, but Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that shoulder fatigue has troubles 27-year-old since last year. The issue began while Tuivailala was rehabbing from a torn Achilles, and it culminated this spring with an alarming velocity drop. Tuivailala, who averaged 96.4 mph on his heater with the Cardinals in 2015 and 95.2 mph in his last mostly healthy season (2018) sat 85-86 mph and didn’t top 88 mph on the radar gun this spring, per Divish. Because he’s out of minor league options, the Mariners wouldn’t have been able to send him down to the minor leagues to build up arm strength, either.
  • Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi will fly back to his native South Korea this week, writes Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency. Choi will quarantine himself for the first two weeks of his return but then plans to begin working out with his brother, who runs a training facility in their hometown. That facility will be closed until early April as South Korea endeavors to slow the spread of the Coronavirus, but if able to reopen, that would seemingly provide Choi a better avenue to prepare for the season than he has in Florida, where both Tropicana Field and the Rays’ spring complex are closed. Since being acquired in a 2018 trade with the Brewers (which sent Brad Miller to Milwaukee), Choi has batted a combined .263/.365/.472 with 27 home runs, 32 doubles and three triples in 676 plate appearances (125 OPS+).

MLBTR Originals: 3/16/20 – 3/22/20

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Even with the baseball world shut down, MLB Trade Rumors is still covering any breaking league and transaction news, while also exploring some other topics.  Here’s the roundup of the week’s original content from the MLBTR staff….

  • Jeff Todd profiled different topics every weekday on MLBTR’s YouTube series, with this week’s entries looking at such diverse topics as the Cubs’ quiet offseason, as well as some noteworthy disappointing free agent signings from Orioles, Cubs, and Yankees history.
  • The Offseason In Review series continued with entries on what the Mets, Angels, Red Sox, and Phillies all this winter.
  • Plenty of players are looking at the 2020 season as an opportunity to make up for shakier performances last year.  Connor Byrne cited nine NL Central pitchers, 10 NL West pitchers, and six NL West hitters all looking for better things this season.  Along those same lines, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco profiled some rebound candidates, as Steve looked at the Pirates’ Chris Archer while Anthony delved into newly-signed Giants righty Kevin Gausman.
  • With other league business on hold, could some teams and players take this extra time to work out contract extensions?  Jeff thinks it could potentially happen, and lists some extension candidates within both the NL Central and NL East.
  • All extensions carry risk, however, and Mark Polishuk looked back at a couple of major contracts that might serve as cautionary tales.  We just passed the ten-year anniversary of Joe Mauer’s precedent-setting extension with the Twins, while the Red Sox are only a year removed from their already-problematic extension with Chris Sale.
  • Speaking of looks back at the past, Connor revisited Andy Pettitte’s successful return from retirement to pitch for the 2012-13 Yankees.  Jeff also dove down the rabbit hole of alternate baseball realities to explore what might happened if the Cubs hadn’t signed Jason Heyward, and if Heyward had instead signed with one of four other teams who were reportedly part of his free agent market.
  • After missing all of the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery, Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet returned to action in 2019 and now could be a prime breakout candidate, Connor writes.
  • Are the Mets ready to make the postseason?  MLBTR readers were pretty split in our poll, though 54% of respondents felt the Amazins were indeed headed for the playoffs.
  • Over the coming weeks, we’ll look at how the extended delay to the 2020 season will impact specific teams.  Connor began the series by exploring how the injury-riddled Yankees suddenly have more time for their stars to get healthy.

Revisiting The Chris Sale Extension

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The Red Sox were as busy as any team during last spring’s extension flurry, inking a pair of star players to long-term deals that kept them out of the 2019-2020 free agent market.  One of the extensions was a six-year deal with Xander Bogaerts worth $120MM in guaranteed money, a contract that now looks like a pretty sound investment given how Bogaerts followed up a strong 2018 season with an even better 2019 campaign.

The other extension is already off to a rough start.  Chris Sale signed a five-year, $145MM pact covering the 2020-24 seasons, with a club/vesting option for the 2025 campaign worth at least $20MM.  After vastly outperforming his early-career extension with the White Sox (which ended up as a seven-year, $59MM deal once both option years were exercised), Sale now had a new deal that better reflected his status as one of the better pitchers over the last decade.

Exactly one year after that extension was signed, however, the deal looms as a significant misfire for the Red Sox on a couple of different levels.  The club announced on Thursday that Sale would be undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out of action for whatever becomes of the 2020 season and, in all likelihood, around half of the 2021 season.  The surgery comes on the heels of Sale being shut down last August due to elbow inflamation, and while a platelet-rich plasma injection and some months of rest looked to have the left-hander back on track earlier this winter, Sale was shut down again earlier this month after suffering a flexor strain.

In the short term, this means Boston loses its best pitcher for 2020.  It is a major blow to a rotation that was only okay in 2019, and already had lost David Price after the Sox traded the veteran southpaw and Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in February.  While Sale could conceivably get back to something close to his old form post-surgery and still pitch well over the rest of his contract, the Betts/Price trade plays a critical role in evaluating the big-picture impact of Sale’s extension.

As much as Red Sox ownership has tried to deny it, the luxury tax was clearly a major reason the team was willing to part ways with Betts and Price.  Between moving Betts’ $27.7MM salary and half of the $96MM remaining on Price’s deal, the Sox have gotten themselves under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, with Roster Resource projecting a current tax number just shy of $196MM for the 2020 Red Sox.

After two seasons of tax overages, getting under the CBT limit in 2020 would save the Red Sox millions in future tax payments, and theoretically allow them to spend past the threshold again as early as 2021 with only a minimal “first-timer” penalty attached.  As many Boston fans angrily noted over the winter, of course, trading Betts was a pretty extreme measure to achieve these luxury tax savings, and it’s a measure that could have well been avoided had the Red Sox not spent so much money elsewhere….for instance, on Sale’s extension.

Due to deferred money and the structure of the extension, Sale’s contract has a luxury tax number of $25.6MM per season from 2020-24.  Boston’s overall luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $236.3MM at the start of November, so subtracting Sale’s salary would have dropped their figure to $210.7MM, already within shouting distance of the $208MM threshold.  From that point it would’ve been much easier for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to make few more cuts and duck under the $208MM line without having to move Betts or Price.

Sale isn’t the only problematic salary on Boston’s payroll, of course, as the four-year, $68MM free agent deal Nathan Eovaldi signed last offseason is also looking questionable after Eovaldi’s injury-plagued 2019.  That said, the Red Sox were far from the only team who thought Eovaldi turned a corner in his breakout 2018 campaign, and they had to outbid the market to re-sign him.

In Sale’s case, the Sox didn’t necessarily have to pursue that extension, particularly given that a few red flags were already apparent.  Sale lost some effectiveness down the stretch in the 2017 season, and had an even shakier ending to his 2018, as shoulder problems limited him to just 17 regular-season innings after July 27 of that year.  The Red Sox were as judicious as possible in spacing out Sale’s appearances during the postseason, when he posted a 4.11 ERA over 15 1/3 innings en route to Boston’s World Series championship.

While Sale had been a very durable pitcher for the bulk of his career, seemingly running out of steam in consecutive seasons should probably have been enough to give the Red Sox some pause before guaranteeing him $145MM through his age 31-35 seasons.  As The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham recently noted, the Sox may have been motivated to keep Sale out of a lingering regret over the Jon Lester situation from 2014, when the team was perhaps too rigid in extension talks prior to Lester’s final season under contract, which led to Lester being dealt to the Athletics at midseason and then going on deliver several more fine years after signing with the Cubs.

Abraham argues that waiting until after Sale’s final season could have been the more prudent decision for the Sox, as they would have had the added information of Sale’s 2019 numbers.  While the elbow injury was the biggest concern, Sale’s 36% hard-hit ball rate was the highest of his career, and his average fastball velocity dropped by 1.5 mph (to 93.2) from his 2018 speed.  Sale’s 2019 season was the worst of his ten-year MLB career, though given his high standards, a “bad” Chris Sale season was still very solid — a 4.40 ERA, 5.89 K/BB rate, 13.3 K/9 over 147 1/3 innings, and a wealth of advanced metrics (3.39 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 3.00 SIERA) hinting that Sale’s 4.40 ERA was the result of some bad luck, such as a 1.47 HR/9 that far surpassed his previous career high.

Would this platform year have been enough to make Sale a big player in free agency?  We saw multiple top arms score larger-than-expected contracts this winter, though none of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner and company had a mid-August shutdown hanging over their heads.  It’s probably safe to assume that Sale would have still landed a pretty sizable multi-year contract if he had been a free agent, though that also assumes he would have tested the market at all.  His elbow injury could have led to Sale accepting a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to remain in Boston, in the hopes that he’d return to better health in 2020 and deliver a prime season that would lead to a bigger deal in the 2020-21 offseason.

Adding another wrinkle to the mix, perhaps the Red Sox don’t even issue Sale a QO in this scenario out of a concern that he might accept it.  Boston’s approach to payroll seemed to shift radically from the start of the 2019 season to the end, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was fired and eventually replaced with Bloom, who was under that rather clumsily-issued edict to trim salaries.  In the wake of Sale’s 2019 season, perhaps the Red Sox would’ve been comfortable just letting Sale walk entirely, thus removing one more contractual concern from their books.

A major-market team like the Sox can weather a big contract not working out, but the franchise’s self-imposed desire to avoid the luxury tax suddenly puts many of the big deals of the Dombrowski era (the Sale extension, plus the signings of Price, Eovaldi, and maybe even J.D. Martinez considering the sheer dollars involved) under the radar.  This being said, blaming Dombrowski for Boston’s financial situation is unfair, as these nine-figure deals aren’t happening without the green light from ownership.

Sale’s extension is a prime example of how no transaction exists in a vacuum, as every signing/extension/trade/release/etc. is itself a response to some other move, and also sets off a chain reaction of other moves.  As Abraham pointed out, who knows if Red Sox ownership makes such a move if they had acted differently with Lester all those years ago, or if maybe Sale (or Price, or Eovaldi, or even Dombrowski) ends up in Boston whatsoever if the Sox had still had Lester in their rotation.  Unfortunately for Sale and the Red Sox, the second-guessing over the extension will continue at least until the southpaw can finally get back on the mound.

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