Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window. January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.
A move to North America is not guaranteed, however. As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision. As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.
Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number. Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running. The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract. The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.
This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course. Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020. As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender. Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.
The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman. Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter. Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.
The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano. Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.
With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership. Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)
Sign him, Blue Jays!!
Mets
Red Sox for many reasons. 1, they have a desperate need in starting pitching as nobody knows what will happen with Sale or ERod and Evo is always a health concern. 2, they have the money available because they reset last year. 3, they don’t have the prospects to trade for a good starting pitcher. 4, They have a long history of star Japanese players who will all give Boston a strong endorsement
I’ll go SF
There gonna start juicing the books for 22 and beyond soon. Makes sense to get a strong multi yr deal in here now and beat the traffic to next year when purses should be more open –
If they can structure like Sea did w kikuchi and get all those team options all the better. This has Z written all over it
I went SF as well.
This guy reminds me of a Tanaka clone. The deliberate Japanese pitching windup is so distinct looking.
As a met fan, I’m afraid you’re right… strong vibe he’s going to SF
I agree. SF could definitely use him, and even if they get him they’re still going to do their thing and get some rebound candidates
Curious to not see the Angels listed as a suitor.
They are. Field is option.
Giants or Angels (mystery team) is my guess.
NYY also could be in the mix.
Angel wants pitchers but won’t spend money maybe next year, angels are 3-4 away.
They won’t be in it until after trout retires
Come on Perry!
My vote is on the Ninja Blacksox. They need that final piece of the puzzle to finally dispatch the Lovely Ladies.
SNK Crushers are going to be all over this guy.
That is so funny and cute. You are so clever! Ok can you stop posting now?
Obviously you’re not a golfer.
Geographically and needs wise, I went with the Giants even though I’m a Jays fan.
I have no idea what type of contract he’ll get. 3 years/18 million?
I’m probably low at 18/3….
5/40?
Maybe 4/32. 8 million AAV feels about right…
I’d say 3/24 – 8 AAV feels right, but 4 years for a 31yo unproven import feels a tad long.
I was thinking he was 29. Agree, at 31 wouldn’t go past 3 years on term. Maybe even 2…
Unpopular opinion, even amongst Braves fans… I think Allard is gonna have a great career and will be Cliff Lee 2.0 … there, I said it. Idc what stats or junk you throw at me… it’s happening
Allard = Bad
Stats 101 lol
Let’s just say that I think he has a good shot as a LR arm. He needs to hone in his stuff more regularly if he wants to be a good starter.
yeah i think its still a bit early to give up on Allard
Send Allard, Odor, Seis and Jordan Lyles to Boston for Sale. Sign Saguno to 3 year deal.
i dont know how anyone currently could make a confident bet on what his market looks like. like is anyone willing to put down more then a few dollars on any specific team?
Good thing voting here didn’t cost a dime!
Giants won’t sign him. Marketing tie ins aside, they play in the Group of Death. And clearly not the killers.
We have seen many players take money over career success chance.
I could be wrong but I interpreted this as him saying that SF isn’t going to pay to sign Sugano because they know its going to be very difficult to compete with LA and SD in 2021/2022.
SF doesn’t look like they’re tearing it all down for a full rebuild though, so I don’t really know if I buy that. I could see them making some moderate incremental improvements to try to hang around the division even if on paper it doesn’t look good for them.
and his chance for career success facing the best lineups.
I’ll guess Mets here, Padres would have been my pick but they seem better set on pitching than the mess that is the Mets.
I’ll say Giants, then the AL East teams (Jays and Bosox)
Why do I get the feeling the Mets take a lot but are not signing anybody from the top tier?
I’m playing the field just because a mystery team would be more exciting. Gut tells me Mets will overpay here. Better to overpay Sugano than Bauer IMO.
Totally agree
As a Mets fan, I fully agree with all of this.
SF or Boston.
I really, really want Texas to sign Sugano too, but I just doubt it happens now. JD and CY sound like they want to plug in the 5th spot with some combination of young guys (though conceivably, those young guys should be taking over Lyles’ spit instead).
I think the Blue Jays should, but I feel the Mets will go the extra mile to get him.
Idk why, but the Blue Jays just don’t feel right to me. I still think Giants or Sox…
I wanted to ask for your opinion on something I thought about yesterday btw. So, the DFA either allows for release, outright, or trade, but here’s what I was thinking. What if from the day that a player got DFA’d, any international league could put bids down on that player without competing with MLB teams for the player? So say Tyler White gets DFA’d, he then gets offers from international leagues for the week that he is DFA’d. He can either accept a contract with one of those teams, or the team can outright, release, or trade him.
I just thought that it would be another good step in making MLB even more international. Your thoughts?
(BTW, the contract White had with his former MLB team would be dropped if he signed internationally.)
I feel it should be more complicated than that. Idk how they do it in foregin leagues, but then should MLB teams be allowed to bid on DFA’d players in foreign leagues? Still, I feel if they can find an offer overseas, they would just refuse a minor league assignment, get released and then sign in Japan, Korea, etc.
My thought behind it was that the international teams would have no competition by MLB clubs to try and sway the thoughts of the player.
Though I don’t think I agree that if an international player was DFA’d, that MLB teams should have the first “dibs”. The reason being is that those leagues are, for one, cheaper, so giving them the first picks for our DFA’s are more fair because you have a lot of low budget teams competing with each other, not with multi-billion dollar MLB franchises. For two, if a player gets DFA’d in an international league, then they probably couldn’t stand a chance in AAA, much less in MLB.
Idk why everyone thinks the Mets need SP… deGrom, Thor, Stroman, Peterson is better than most teams in the league. I know Thor won’t be back for a couple months into the year but what are you gonna do, put Matz in the pen?
Thor has been declining steadily and is a health risk. Stroman has had ups and downs. Tough to judge Peterson on one shortened season (players have plenty of tape to study now). deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. After that it’s a lot of question marks. Not necessarily bad starters at all, but I wouldn’t call any of them a sure thing outside of deGrom.
Thor is out till June. They don’t have a 3 or 4 starter. They could slot in Lugo till Thor is ready or maybe Matz but still need another pitcher regardless
The Mets need 1 impact arm and 1 guy to soak up 115 inns at a 4.8 era imo
Only 1 impact arm left on the market
I wouldnt rule out a trade despite the clamor from NY. Theres been a whole lotta meetings inbetween those comments from basically a whole new front office
I think they line up with Cincy and Cle well right now via trade if they are willing to go Bold
Lugos best value is being a 4-6 out guy – At this point in the contract you just embrace that imo not call an audible – Pens got sneaky nasty high upside in its favor atm
@MasterCat
I’m a Met Fan and I’m not certainly comfortable with going into this year with what they have after DeGrom.at SP.
Noah gives them half a season. Don’t know how he’s going to pitch after TJ surgery and what innings limit he may have.
Stroman opted out last year. So it’s been over a year since he’s pitched.
Peterson is coming off a rookie season in which he started 10 games and pitched 49-50 innings..
Matz was really bad.
Lugo was moved to the rotation and stretched out late.
Not to mention that the Mets have to anticipate injuries to the rotation.
Also, after a 60 game season were many pitchers pitched limited innings, teams will have to increase the workload from 2020 to 2021 for their SP’s
IMO they need 2 proven innings eaters with a track record over multiple seasons of pitching better than average. Not an easy task. I think Sugano would help.
Thor – missed 2020 with injury, out til June
Stroman – missed 2020
Peterson – completely unproven
5th starter -???
They need two starters.
His full windup delivery is fascinating. If he has any success in the MLB he might become a fan favorite, and definitely a fan favorite in Toronto if the Blue Jays land him. Kids will imitate his style.
Is it just me or does every Japanese hitter look like Ichiro in the box and every pitcher look like Tanaka on the mound with the slow, drop and drive delivery?
I’m not convinced these Nippon aces are worth the cost uncertainty… pass of I’m the Jays.
Watched video on Sugano. I’d pass on him too. He’s between Tanaka and Yamaguchi but closer to Yamaguchi. I’d pass too.
Bases Loaded the Nintendo game really does depict the hitting style in Japan very well.
I’ll go Mets, because they’ll hope for Bauer and get Sugano.
New year, same Mess.
Mets winning the poll I guess it means they’re going to sign him
King, the Blue Jays came in third on last years poll about Ryu and yet they signed him.
@jaysfansince1977 Do you think playing in an alternate site has any impact on FA signings? Things are tough enough during the pandemic, I wonder if temporarily playing in Buffalo creates more uncertainty, especially for players coming from another country. Interested in your opinion. I fully expect the Jays to land at least 1 key FA, but I’m wondering if they’re at a disadvantage out of the gate.
Why would it impact the player signing, he still gets paid no matter where he plays. Ryu did not seem to be impacted by playing in Buffalo, and i never heard of a single Jay beyond Shaw complain and that was about the Jays summer camp lockdown
Von I’ll tackle it from a different viewpoint.
Buffalo’s Sahlen Field was extremely kind to hitters. Jays as a team hit .823 OPS with a .276 Avg and 43 homeruns in 26 games. Although some would say Buffalo’s a tough place to hit in April and early May, the summer months saw balls fly out of that park. Jays hit .721 on the road despite strong offensive showings in Fenway, Camden and Yankee Stadium. Hitters looking for advantages and big numbers should consider Toronto with their young core and hitter friendly parks in the division.
Pitchers in Buffalo have to take full advantage of the cold weeks in April. AL East is a tough place to pitch and has been for years. However, a guy like Bauer could become a legend beating the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays rather than joining the Yanks or Red Sox. The David v. Goliath effect, and the Jays are still David in the AL East.
@jaysfansince1977 I just mean in terms of temporary living arrangements, family…etc. Some players are looking for stability. There’s not a lot of that with a pandemic going on, but even less with a team playing outside of their home city/country. I don’t think it’s a huge factor (how often are players home anyway?), but I expect it to be a factor nonetheless. I’m not just talking about Sugano here. Perhaps Springer, Bauer, Realmuto…etc.
@WereAllJustGuests good points all around.
My bet is this guy is not going to do very well in MLB, hard pass.
I don’t know. His stuff is nasty. I see him as a solid #3.
My guess giants
Angels
Seems like an unbiased opinion.
I’d honestly guess Angels on a number of arms. Not sure if Angels are interested but they have the need
@Tom the Angels aren’t going to over pay for a second tier starting pitcher. Don’t have of trade pieces in the farm system. So getting him, may be their best option to add a starter pitcher.
I wonder if his window closing on Jan 7th is complicating things for some teams who are waiting to see what happens with Bauer.
Maybe thats part of why Toronto was meeting with Bauer recently. Might be trying to see if they really have a shot at Bauer or if they should go for Sugano instead?
I’m thinking Angels. Bauer is in Toronto, Springer in NY. I’m thinking the Mets sign two hoping for one (Paxton for example ) with the possibility of exploring a trade since they’d have some players they could move that are cheap (Smith, Davis, Nimmo).
Bauer will be too rich for the Mets’ blood and Tanaka probably prefers to return to the Bronx, so I think Mets secure Sugano and trade for another SP.
I believe the Mets will not sign any of the big names this year.
Not the Blue Jays, they are just in for the clicks.
Twins need another quality starter option and had a good chunk of money come off the books. I like sugano more than odor and would cost less per year than his QO last season.
I think he signs with Toronto thanks to Ryu
Not sure why Ryu would impact his signing, Ryu is Korean and Sugano is Japanese, Yamaguchi may impact his decision more
They’re all the same to some of these pea-brained
folks.
Now, Ryu could’ve influenced Kim, but people have to remember that…. ALL ASIANS ARE NOT THE SAME! Jesus…
Monty Brunansky in the triggered phase of his day, No snappy movie line? Aw shucks.
JaysFan1977 was not being racist or mean spirited in his comment. You’re looking for trouble again.
It looks like you proved me right. Lazy is googling a movie quote and passing it off as clever. You cry and whine over petty crap when you aren’t being lazy doing searches. But anyway, I suggest not to call people out if you’re looking to be a jokester or incorrectly imply someone is a racist. Nobody really finds that hilarious except you.
Tom, or maybe I made a mistake and thought Ryu was Japanese you jerk. You are the most worthless poster on here and I can’t wait til you get banned.
Rangers, you ever made a mistake Mr Perfect?
The best way to acknowledge your mistakes is to call people jerks. Good job.
Well, when you’re being a jerk, you’re gonna get called one. If you don’t like it then don’t be a jerk. He simply could’ve said that he’s Korean, not Japanese but no, he had to be a jerk. If you’d pay attention then you’d say I didn’t call out Jaysfan because he wasn’t a jerk.
Sorry DTD I thought the jerk was calling out JaysFan but it was you. Again, he is a D-Bag 100% of the time and you did not have bad intentions with your comment.
Besides, it’s not out of the question for Ryu to be part of the process to sign players from overseas.
What happened here? I guess i should have expanded my original reply to include that Sugano and Yamaguchi had been teammates hence his influence being a bit more likely than that of Ryu.
Sorry JaysFan. I was pointing out Tom B’s quick-on-the-draw race baiting crap and thought he was talking to you. Either way your post was on the spot.
Said in another post here that I watched video of Sugano. Kids will love imitating his style but I’m not certain he can be good in the MLB. I’d still rather overpay Bauer.
You’re good Jaysfan, no issue at all with your post as you were informative and respectful. It’s the other 2 jerks that were the issue.
I’ll sign him
Did I miss somewhere that the mariners are not interested in him?
They seem like a good fit; they need pitching, have money and are a pretty popular destination for Japanese players since they are close to Japan and they had great success stories with Ichiro and Iwakuma.
In what universe does Toronto “have enough arms on hand”? Their current likely rotation is as follows: Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Roark, Stripling, aka Ace, Dumpster Fire, Hope, Vomit, Prayer.
They were careful not to put the word quality between enough and arms.
options tends to lead to better value. they also have guys like Kay, Hatch, Merryweather, SRF, Zeuch, etc on hand as options
Kay and Zeuch SUCK. Plain ans simple. If they are used as options, this season is in the sh##ter
Gee, let me guess. Uhhh….I think he’ll sign in California or New York. ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
Why do I get the feeling the Mets take a lot but are not signing anybody from the top tier? I guess Texas for the large park and family people.
Mets should go after Bradley and/or Brentley and sign DJ plus hendricks the closer. If they do that they can compete.
I voted for Tomoyuki Sugano to sign with San Diego due to geography, comfort level, a better chance at reaching the World Series and because the Padres are on a roll this offseason. My vote came down to the Padres and Rangers because of the comfort level of Sugano pitching in a rotation with fellow Japanese countrymen Yu Darvish or Kohei Arihara. San Diego wins the geography battle as a West Coast team closer to Japan along with southern California having a much higher population of Japanese Americans. The Padres are also on quite the roll this winter and a far more competitive team than the Rangers.
For the life of me I can’t understand why the Angels wouldn’t have more reported interest in Sugano as a West Coast team with a star Japanese player in Shohei Ohtani, one that is in desperate need for more starting pitching. That’s OK because I have the Angels landing top free agent TOR Trevor Bauer in this years FA contest with Sugano nowhere to be seen on the list as a late posting entry.
The Padres have 4 SPs who are proven stars (I’m including Clevenger in 2022). They have a number of young pitchers on the verge of breaking through and joining those 4 stars (Paddack, Gore, Morejon, Weathers, maybe Baez).. Adding another SP (such as Bauer or Sugan0) who would suppress those younger guys just when one, two or three of them are ML ready would be highly idiotic. Yes they’ve been active in adding Darvish and Snell, but I think they are set now. Let the competition for 5th starter begin. Paddack will be looking over his shoulder.
Red Sox. Japanese absolutely love Boston
Indians. Cleveland love Japanese players
Excluding any Hollywood sequels, I believe the next Japanese player in Cleveland will be the first one… no?
I think it will be Red Sox. Arihara the Sox aggressively pursued and took Rangers instead. No way they let Sugano go anywhere but to Boston. Mets need a ton more than Sugano to compete just saying.
Other – Yankees (who will then resign Tanaka.
I really like the Mariners as a dark horse team. Geography, need, aggressive GM. That’s a fun team with Dipoto.
The M’s are a fun team? Hahaha! You’re funny!
Yanks should sign Sugano. They can afford him and DJLM. Instead….even if they get DJLM. I feel like at least one of the Angels/Mets/Jays/Giants will make a 3/50 offer to Tanaka if they miss out on Bauer or Sugano or whoever their preferred guy is. Then the Yanks will cheap it out and end up with Cole Hamels’ Corpse or something.
#HamelsLives
I wish the White Sox would be in on him. They appear to have a solid front 3 for their lineup, but spots 4-5 have question marks. And Lynn is only under contract for 2021, so a 3-year deal with Sugano would provide rotation certainty for a couple more seasons, too.
I love the Sox’s Cuban Connection, but the team needs to expand its horizons. And I think the last time they had a Japanese national on the team, they won the World Series with Tadahito Iguchi in 2005.
Padres. They seem the most motivated to win now.
That would be something else. I don’t see it, but 3 big-name pitchers in 1 offseason would be insane. I know Sugano hasn’t pitched in the MLB yet, but he’s one of the biggest names in Japan.
Are the cubs not interested? Could they be a dark horse? Replace Yu with Tomoyuki. They need pitching.
I think Sugano will sign with the Jays, in their case, he has the opportunity to reunite with his former teammate in Yamaguchi which could potentially impact his decision, and if he does well in the MLB as he did in the Nippon, he could potentially be a fan favorite with not only the Jays but to the MLB as well. So I’m all in on the Jays signing him this week. One things for sure, he will get paid a lot more in the MLB if he signs there.