The Padres and 22-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. officially came to terms on a whopper of an extension earlier this week. Tatis, already a franchise cornerstone at such a young age, landed a 14-year contract worth $340MM. His deal also includes full no-trade rights, so if the Padres try to bail any point, Tatis will be able to prevent it from happening if he chooses.
Tatis earned his deal after an amazing year-plus run as a member of the Padres, with whom he debuted in 2019. They acquired him from the White Sox in June 2016 in a deal centering on right-hander James Shields, and though the swap now looks like one of the most lopsided moves in recent memory, it’s worth noting Tatis was not a can’t-miss prospect then. He developed into a stud in the Padres’ system, though, and has continued to live up to the hype in the majors.
Tatis has only played 143 games so far, but he has already racked up 6.5 fWAR and batted .301/.374/.582 with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 629 plate appearances. That’s superstar production at any spot, but it’s particularly valuable at shortstop, where Tatis will continue to partner with third baseman Manny Machado to form an elite left side of the infield in San Diego for the foreseeable future.
Tatis, who wasn’t even eligible for arbitration at the time of his extension, now owns the record for a pre-arb pact. He wasn’t due to reach arbitration until the end of 2022 or free agency until after 2024, so the Padres are clearly betting that Tatis will continue to thrive over the long haul.
The Padres and Tatis are tied together until well into the 2030s. How do you like the extension for the two sides?
(Poll links for app users: 1, 2)
The no trade clause is for the fans.
The organization definitely seems determined to win a championship at any cost. That’s something any fan should be excited about
That contract is STUPID!
For who?
The Padres.
I’m sure you have some reasoning to support your claim?
It’s the internet, reasoning is never a part of comments like these.
When you look at recent longer term pre-arbitration extensions, this one looks like a huge overpay. Of course, that seems to be how the Padres do business.
he has played all of 1 season worth of games. maybe tad too early.
That’s why I grade it a C for the Padres. Could this be a Stanton situation for them?
A for Tatis. 340 million reasons. It doesn’t really matter if he could potentially earn more a few years from now.
I also gave a C to Padres and an A to Tatis for the same reasons. He could be elite for 14 years, but it is a little too early to bank on that, and they are going to be paying him a lot of money expecting elite production for 14 years. For him, he gets guaranteed payday.
Valid point. He just has such incredible baseball instincts and raw talent that I can’t see him not being worth this contract for at least the first 10 years, providing he stays healthy. And with that AAV, there is a great chance that this contract actually becomes a steal as soon as 2024. I like the deal for both sides and I would like to see more of these type of deals for young superstars in the future.
I did the same. C for the team, A for Tatis. Not sure how it can be an A for both player and team. I think it’s guaranteed to will work out for Tatis. For the Padres, 14 years is an eternity for an MLB contract. Can’t see that getting an A.
Or: his career could go the way of Heyward, Puig, Benintendi etc… not bad players by any means, but definitely not where we thought they would be a few years ago.
exactly
Same exact mindset
I also grade it the same for the same reasons. Definitely an A for Tatis for obvious reasons. C for the Padres only because a lot of years and a whole lot of guaranteed money for less than a season of big league experience. If they can win a couple of championships with Tatis as a catalyst, the grade goes up. If they win none, the grade goes down.
I also say a C. There is way too much downside in that contract for the Padres. If Tatis is anything less than a top 25 player, then it’s a wash or an overpay.
I gave it an A for Tatis. But I gave the Padres a D, for many reasons already stated.
I don’t see how anyone could give the Padres anything above a C at this point in time. As others have said, way to early in his career to have enough of a trend to predict 14 years of elite level $24M pay.
Sure maybe out in 2026 after another 5 years of performance you might be able to say they have him locked in at $24M vs $30 a year. But at least you would have enough to really predict his outlook.
I agree. I would have waited at least one more season to better assess his value.
Maybe half a decade too early.
D for Padres, A for Tatis.
I voted the same. Those who graded it an F for Tatis are trolls, confused, or idiots
Hence why they referred specifically to those who graded it an F “for Tatis”. Not to those who graded it an F for the Padres. Work on your reading comprehension.
This is a hilarious self-own fan. You misunderstood my comment clearly, please work on our reading comprehension and give it another try
Definitely to early. If Tatis ends up hitting 40 plus home runs and winning MVP awards in the future economy that’s yet to develop with all of this hyper inflation he will be needing 60 million per season.
What hyperinflation? It’s been, at max, 3% in recent memory, which is agreed upon by economists as a suitable level of inflation for a functioning economy. It’s been way lower than that most years, and probably isn’t going anywhere, unless climate change destroys our ability to produce food and clean water. Bitcoin blogs will rot your brain.
Lol who said anything about bit coin blogs? Nah I’m going off the M1 money stocks, and since players are paid in USD and not bit coins I don’t see how that’s even relative?
“Banks to big to fail”
Because reactionary bitcoin chuds are obsessed with inflation but have no sense of what actually causes it.
You mean 3% a year gives corporations an excuse to underpay people who work long hours for not much. It doesn’t apply to upper echelons however.
Companies pay “economist” to justify their greed.
Printing money to make up for deficits is one cause of inflation. And it’s a big one. MMT economics (Keynesian theory) is a historically proven failure.
As is signing players to huge contracts when they haven’t fully demonstrated their value.
It was too early but I like the Padres’ treatment of Tatis compared to, say, the Cubs’ treatment of Kris Bryant. It also sends a message to other Padres players that they can expect to be treated fairly and their service time/salaries won’t be manipulated.
I agree about being a bit early. I like the other offseason moves of acquiring pitching,in which made the team stronger,but what is the rush in giving him extension. If he is under contract for a for a couple years under team control,let him give you a better look of what is he capable of and an opportunity to view him on how he adjust and responds to slumps/bad stretches. At least if he succeeds, then the team can give him maybe more of a premium price. Point- seems like an “All in” gamble. If he does NOT live up to contract and pressure, that contract can be an issue of a bit handicapping the team payroll and or finding any takers when it comes to trades.
I gave it an A for Tatis. But I gave the Padres a D, for many reasons already stated.
I said A for the Padres and B for Tatis because Tatis definitely could’ve gotten more money per year. Tatis is 22, so he is signed through I believe his age 36 season, so the Padres absolutely got lucky. He will be around for awhile, and this makes me mad as a Giants fan.
If he is completely healthy and performs at his rookie season rate for the next 5 or so years yes. If not, no. The odds of him doing that are not 100%. I gave Tatis an A, would have given him higher but it doesnt exist, Padres B as its not a bad deal if he he performs at an elite level for 11 years but they took on all the risk without giving much of a discount.
Through his age 35 season.
He’s still going to get to hit free agency with a chance to get a decent amount of money
Yes, this may not represent his entire career earnings – but whatever comes after age 35 will likely be peanuts in comparison.
Consider a 30 year old elite free agent – often times signed for six or seven years. Teams don’t want those last two years (because by then decline is often significant), but it is often what it takes to get the deal done…
I don’t see how it’s a bad deal for Tatis. He might have gotten more, but he is guaranteed more money than he can actually spend in a lifetime so I don’t see how gambling with his health to maybe make even more money that he will take to the grave makes much sense.
This deal reminds me of when the Giants got Bonds. It can literally change the fortune of the franchise for the next decade and a half he is there and possibly the next decade after. If San Diego becomes a perineal competitor they become a destination for free agents especially with the weather there. San Diego is a rich and large town and baseball could thrive there if they have ownership willing to invest in the talent required to win, which it’s starting to look like they do.
Not a clever name:
Except that Bonds initially signed for 6 years, not 14. Bonds wound up playing in SF for 15 years, but that was 3 separate contracts. Had it gone bad, the Giants had somewhat of a way out. The Padres are committed for the full 14 from the get-go.
Padres also have ways out. See:
Giancarlo Stanton
Alex Rodriguez
Robinson Cano
To a lesser extent, Nolan Arenado.
Obviously if Tatis, Jr. goes full pumpkin they are stuck with the contract, but even an underwater contract can be offloaded if necessary – even with a full no-trade clause. That just makes it harder, is all.
I put A for Tatis Jr. How often in sports is a player, who hasn’t even played a whole normal season’s worth of games, given so much? But I don’t think it’s a loss on the Padres end. I would give them a B+. I know there is some risk given how much they gave to a player with so little experience, but this isn’t giving money to an Albert Pujols aged player. I doubt all of a sudden Tatis is going to fall off a cliff.
That’s pretty much exactly how I graded it too, @mlb1225.
For both sides it’s a Big Baller Play.
Man,San Diego has had such a good off-season. Preller was really the only GM who has been active the entire winter.
Pretty cool to watch as a non-fan of their club. Preller from start to finish has been making his club better. It almost seemed like a forgone conclusion that when extension season rolled around he’d check that box too.
I can see him making another small to medium size addition yet.
Tanking sucks. But we’ve seen two teams in the Padres & White Sox this winter show the theory behind it.
Both those clubs look pretty good, man.
The thing I don’t get is that people are comparing this to much, much worse deals. Someone mentioned the Stanton deal. Let’s be honest, a player like Tatis Jr. is going to age much better than Stanton. Tatis Jr. is a five tool player. He’s extremely athletic and his bat isn’t where all the value is. Now that’s no knock on Stanton. Early in his career, Stanton had some sneaky speed, and in all honesty, isn’t a bad defender in right field. Has +67 DRS and 4.2 UZR/150 at the position throughout his career. But players like Stanton age much different than a guy like Tatis. When Tatis slows down, he’ll be moved to second base or third base. When Stanton slows down, he’s a DH.
D’accod.
Completely different players. Of course it’s a gamble. But you’re right. Tatis has a pretty high bar especially in regards to where he is on the defensive spectrum.
This could also really pay some dividends in regards to fan good will. Chargers left. Clippers left. But the Padres are making a serious commitment to their fans.
There’s really a lot at play here.
Fortune favors the bold, man. Ya know?
It’s a bold move.
Really hope it works out. But I love the mentality behind it, serious.
Only concern I have with it, 14 years ago Tulo and Jose Reyes were the up and coming super shortstops. Neither had good finishes.
Fantastic for Tatis, I understand the risk and don’t blame them. Tatis in the Padres jersey for his career is a win for smaller markets and baseball in general.
to be fair up through his Blue Jays tenure Reyes was pretty good, and even injury prone Tulo was a great enough hitter to provide significant value when healthy.
Reyes’ tenure in Toronto was just ok. He was done being an impact player by 2014, and he was traded for Tulo in 2015. Reyes also hurt himself in 2013 for not sliding properly.
If Reyes or Tulo signed 14 year deals when they were 21/22… despite how rough the ends of their careers were… they actually wouldn’t have been terrible contracts. They wouldn’t have been great for the last few seasons… but they also wouldn’t have been terrible on the whole. That to me is why this is a good deal for the Padres. Even if he winds up like Tulo (which would be a bad case scenario) he’s still SOOO young now that 14 years from now he’s still only 36… so even if he starts to decline at age 30 (which would be a negative) the overall deal probably won’t be awful. And if he does perform like he looks like he’s capable of for a long time… it could be a bargain. Because he’s soooo young… I think that there’s less risk of it becoming an Albert Pujols type albatross awful contract. Of course there’s the risk that he’s just gotten “lucky” so far and won’t produce at the level he has thus far… but that seems really unlikely.
eh after looking over Reyes and Tulo’s stats past age 31/32 I suppose If tatis really does fall off a cliff like they did… it would be worse than I initially thought. BUT it would still mean like 10 of the 14 years would be solid and they’d wind up with 4+ season s of a bad contract. Which would be bad… but going off the premise that that is basically the worse case scenario… it still wouldn’t be the end of the world for them.
Youi would give Tulo 300 mill if you could do it all over again? Reyes as well? Hmm
Never a good idea to give $300MM+ to someone with less than a full season of experience.
On the flip side, always sign the $300mm+ contract put in front of you, especially if you have less than a full season of experience!
B for tatis, d for padres. Tatis could probably get more money long term but locking in after only a seasons worth of production and security it’s not hard to blame him. Padres jumped the gun, could have waited it out 2 years and see if he produces at the same level then sign him for slightly more. If he falls off the earth padres are screwed being a small franchise.
100% agree, not to mention they have boatloads of cash still owed to Hosmer, Myers, Darvish & Machado. Yeah no thank you!
Simple formula here: player getting 300+ gets an A, franchise keeping their franchise player in their uniform for his whole career gets an A
Thank you, both gave a little ground and the fans win out! A’s for both. Tatis wants a statue, time to go earn it.
Tatis actually has to play for the Padres for 14 more years before they get credit for keeping him around for his entire career. Trades happen, even with no trade clauses… 🙂
A for both. Tatis will be rich and the Padres have the face of the franchise locked up as long as they want. Is there risk? Sure, but overall it’s a pretty fair deal and structured nicely. He won’t make bigger bucks until 4 years has passed which gives payroll flexibility.
C on both sides. good market get from both perspectives. Pads didnt pull an Albies or Acuna extention but didnt overpay either. Tatis didnt get scammed but unless he gets injured I think he’ll make good money and gets some nice financial security.
I think the Acuna signing was fair enough at the time, he had 1 year under his belt and was given 100 million dollars and will be able to cash in on a contract when he is 30. That’s when most players hit free agency anyway. Albies definitely got underpaid but hey, he will never have to work and maybe he wanted to stay in Atlanta with his best friend.
@DarkSide- Kind words and not far off the mark… just curious how that constitutes “C”s for both sides!? This is an “average” deal for both? Cheers bud
I consider C average on a A-F scale
Yes, we have the same definition… but “good market gets for both”, “nobody got scammed” , Padres commit to their main building block man thru his prime, San Diego fans rejoice at keeping El Niño, (possibly watching Tony 2.o) and Tatis’ family is set for generations…
= Cs?
Just seemed funny to me, not trying to sound facetious. His 24m AAV will be looked upon as criminally underpaid soon, imho. I believe all Big 5 soon-to-be FA SSs all sign for higher AAV after 21. Enjoy the Spring Training!
If your looking at it like 24 AAV your not looking at it correctly whatsoever
In the 90’s we would call that fuzzy math
I don’t see how the Pad’s could have overpaid any more than they did with the amount of leverage/time that they had. Fans really seem to be blinded by Tatis’ talent and are not seeing this from a leverage standpoint. Tatis was not on the open market. He was paid like he was 2 years away from free agency, not the 5 that he actually was
^ this. Padres were only bidding against themselves. No reason they couldn’t have waited a season or two to see what he was a bit better and saved 20m in the process.
He was 4 years out
I am of the belief that Tatis would have cost more in a few years. He is “only” making 1m this year. His 24m AAV will soon be eclipsed by Story, Lindor, Correa, Baez and Seager. Looked upon through my rose colored glasses, yes, it does have the makings of a good deal for both. Security up front for Tatis, slight “discount” for the Pads, one hometown player staying put for his peak, all fans win. Nothing is without risk, but everything seems to be aligned here.
Here’s the thing Gwynn, even with this deal where you keep pointing to his 24M AAV, the reality is that for his 10 free agent years, you’re paying 306M. 30.6M, almost the same AAV that Mookie got!!
I’d bet a lot of money the 5 star free agent SS do not all top 10/306
That’s more free agent money than Manny Machado got after 7 full seasons. The contract is bigger than Harper! Again 7 years of stats vs 140 games
Let’s put it this way. 5 years ago, you probably would have told the Cubs they’d be idiots to not sign Bryant to a deal that paid him 250M for 12/13 years. He was a young stud at a valuable position, what could go wrong? Now, no one wants him for 19M and 1 year
Tatis has done next to nothing in baseball terms
Bryant was “disrespected” by 200+ mill back then
I dont think its apples to apples but damn KB looked ghudddddd as well his first 575 abs !
Gynning- Why not wait till after the CBA and seeing a full first season tho?
If Tatis stays healthy, this will seem very cheap for the Padres with the increasing salary rate. It’s a win/win or A/A.
I give both sides an A. The Padres are giving Tatis a huge raise for what would have been years 3-7 of his rookie deal but in turn get him for a bargain for the next nine years and Tatis at just 22 years old is now set for life
340 sheets is always an A
A. For Tatis. Sure he could have gotten a hundred million more. As long as he didn’t get hurt. Didn’t regress. Etc. Is the extra hundred million worth the risk?
D. For padres. Would have given them a C. All they did was pay the price that it took to keep him. The D is because I think they went beyond paying the price. Would he not have accepted 300? If he didn’t maybe just let him play out his years of control? Maybe if he gets in a slump he jumps on that 300 offer? Padres certainly didn’t get a bargain.
If he would accept 300 why not 290? If 290 why not 275?
Hence why the deal deserves such a low grade. No way they needed to overpay him for his FA years like they did with such a short track record. Harper+ Machado had SEVEN years of games before they hit FA, with service time games. Tatis is still less than 1. Huge overpay. He would have taken 250 I’d bet
He will make 24m the next 4 years, his Renewal + Arb years. That is an overpay? If he carries on his current arc, he may have made 24m in his final year of Arb alone!
You’re giving him 10/306 for his free agent years, 4 years early.
There’s NOTHING about this that’s a bargain. That 24M number ONLY matters on the luxury tax. Every other category, it’s just a weighed down stat by his first few seasons
@gwynning – agree with you…
Mookie Betts final year of arbitration was for 27m. It’s conceivable that SDP are “saving” money from year 4 of this contract through to it’s completion.
It’s not risk free on either side, but I’m sure Tatis will be well & truly insured by the Pads against injury.
So the bar for the contract saving them money is him being Mookie Freakin Betts?! The 2nd best player in baseball for the last 3+ years??
You realize even a Kris Bryant level fall- one season- would zap his earning potential way below 27M or 306M for his FA years
@Lurking, above
Compare Mookie’s first season and a bit with Tatis jnr’s first season and a bit (ignoring position) and they’re similar – picking whatever metric you like – mildly skewed in Tatis favour but they’re similar. I actually thought Tatis and his team could have got more AAV out of the Padres, gave him a B, them an A for what it isn’t worth.
You talk of a Kris Bryant type downturn but what if the 22 year old Tatis jnr – crazy thought this – actually improves?
To those citing Kris Bryant, I might point out that Bryant won an MVP award and is still young enough that I expect him to have more outstanding seasons. I would also point out that while Bryant was the best college baseball in the country at 21, The Baseball Jesus (Tatis) was one of the very best players in MLB at 21. He could get hurt or fall off a cliff, but he’s a good bet to have a Hall of Fame career. If I’m AJ Preller and Peter Seidler, who know far more about Tatis than any of us do, I’m betting on The Baseball Jesus.
Fair enough Lance but betting’s all about timing….why not see if the roller rolls a good pass line before bombing it…..
I think thats more the question ….. You can get this same deal in 365 days with much better intel on said player/state of game after new CBA
I’m not sure this deal would ever be there again, and the goodwill with the fan base has been overwhelming. We’ll see how it plays out, but I think it’s a move the org was smart to make.
The difference, London, is we’ve seen Mookie adjust the following 6 years. At this point, you’re suggesting not only is he on Mookie Betts level, but he already has earned Mookie Betts contract. You do hear how asinine that is right? Where’s his MVP? Where’s his multiple 6+ war years? Where’s the Proof he isn’t a rookie wonder like so many we see?
You says what if he improves? If he improves and maintains this over the next 4 years to his FA, sure he becomes the next Mike trout and sure the contract is a steal. How many players get to that level? How many get to Mookies level of success? Not 1 season, 7+ years? At any one time, you can count them on your hand
The point of Kris Bryant mention isn’t to say he’s going to follow the path. It’s to point out how stupid it is to claim it’s a guarantee his deal- which pays Tatis 10/306 for his free agent year’s contract, is a bargain. It takes ONE down year to take Kris Bryant from superstar to someone no one wants to pay 19M for one year, let alone 30M for 10. Pretending you can predict the future to know Tatis will be worth 10/306 is just foolish
@Lance. Tatis got 10/306 for his free agent years. He’s the 3rd player EVER to sign for 10+ free agent years and a more than 30M AAV. Trout, Mookie and Tatis
Of freaking course Tatis would have taken this deal in a year, as long as the FA Aav was higher than Manny
Both Harper and Manny signed record deals, 2 years ago. All free agent years. This deal, which includes a freakin pre arb year AND all his arbitration, still tops both records. You’re foolish to think this wouldn’t be possible in a year. Please
Only on the internet would someone who uses the word “freaking ” twice within three sentences have the nerve to call a complete stranger foolish. Don’t use the fact that I cannot reach through my monitor and grab you by the throat as an impetus to continue your obnoxious behavior.
Only on the internet would somebody who got their feelings hurt threaten to strangle somebody if they could. That’s “obnoxious behavior.”
A lot of A’s for Padres. If that is a grade A extension then what is Acuna? A super duper A? An A with 2 bonus gold stars?
D for the Padres. They need Tatis to become a star to superstar to Justify the 10/306 FA money. He hasn’t shown he can stay healthy for 162 nor productive for 162. EVERY other player to get more than 70M had to prove himself over at least 1 full season
Tatis? How do you turn down 340M+ control of your future with a NTC? Easy A there
A for Padres is laughable. The risk is astronomical. Again, they are guaranteeing more FA money to Tatis than Machado got, and Manny set a record when he signed his deal. Anything above a C is just a biased one sided opinion
Yeah I put D for Padres and A for Tatis too!
Tatis: A. 340M is huge, guaranteed, and the signing bonus let’s you take care of family/yourself immediately. No need to get greedy or proud wanting more.
Padres: B. It’s obviously a risk, but you can see the fans love it based on season tickets sales. Plus he’s already becoming a face of baseball. And with that risk the reward is it could be a big bargain.
Most of these new superstar contracts are at 30M+ AAV and there’s no sign contracts are coming down. 24M a year in 2025 might end up being cheap if he performs at least as a top 50 player
You’re really bending reality by going with the 24M AAV line. He’s making 36M the last 5 years. Ages 30-35. Including a guys pre-arb+arb years in a contract sure helps make a 14 year aav look better
The only place that number matters is the luxury tax
You’re not wrong. On the other side 8 players already have AAVs over 33M today. I’m of the opinion 36M in 2030 isn’t going to be a high water salary.
How many are signing for 10+ years and getting 30M+? That’s what Tatis is being paid his non arbitration/pre-arb years
Spoiler. It’s Trout, Mookie, Manny and now Tatis. Tatis beats Manny’s total money and AAV however. So top 3 largest, 10+ year deal, in terms of free agent years?
That’s about it I can think of. 10+ years at over 30M is NOT a common threshold
What was the grade when the Rockies extended Arenado? So too early to tell.
Hopefully that grade is an A for the Cardinals.
An “A” for Tatis (it’ll change his family’s fortunes for generations) and a “D” for the Padres. These deals are seldom a good idea. Exactly what motivation will be there be on a hot August night, with the Pads out of the race, and few fans in the stands (won’t happen this year probably, but it WILL happen at some point of the contract’s duration, perhaps several points) for Tatis to go full tilt? Next to none.
Injuries, lower than expected performance levels, perhaps the player’s personality structure (I have no idea; I don’t know the guy), all combine to rate it a “D”.. Again, consider over the years where that money could be spent instead.
It might work out. But the chances are pretty good it won’t.
I voted exactly the same and so did others. It’s surprising so many votes an A for the organization’s move? He’s one year removed from a top prospect, and performed his first year out. That’s nowhere even close to a guarantee that he will perform that way for fourteen.
Ditto on the same voting
I dont see many fearing/bringing up the next CBA next year- Id want that info on hand before this ink…Also be nice to see a full season as well
Here’s the deal with Tatis: Not only is he a talented, five tool baseball player, he’s also a friendly, polite, respectful, likeable, outgoing kid with lots of charisma and swag. Even if his baseball career doesn’t quite meet everyone’s lofty expectations, he is still going to be selling Gatorade and cars and watches and gym memberships and god knows what else ten years from now. Tatis gear is going to be selling like hotcakes in every ballpark in the the majors, not just at Petco. Little leaguers in Iowa will decide that they are Padre fans because of him.
He is going to wind up increasing the market size of that team., and that’s what the Padres bought when they locked him in for the long haul. I gave an “A” both to Tatis and the Padres.
100% agree. The Padres will make the money back in new fans, goodwill and merch in a few years.
Look, I’m gonna say it… unpopular opinion, but this is a ridiculous deal for the Padres. Very high risk… he’s played what, roughly 1 season worth of games and you give him this contract? How is he remotely worth more than Acuna at this stage? I get Acuna is likely on a ridiculously cheap contract, but FT just isn’t worth this contract today. Look, it might pay off and eventually be a cheap deal for the Padres but I don’t understand how any rational business would make a risky investment at this point in his career …
Not that unpopular, I agree.
This is a good assessment. Now, the counterargument is that FT is going to be a future Hall of Famer so it’s good to lock him up now (this is all B. Kenny on MLB NOW seems to say about this).
One point few are discussing is how this much money may change someone so young. Can a 22 yo manage the responsibilities with such a fortune? Will he become a legend in his own mind (I thought it was tacky when he said he wanted his statute next to Gwynn’s. This is a big assumption on his part) ?
To say he is going to be a future hall of famer with less than 1 seasons worth of games under his belt is just silly. Nobody is a 300M+ sure thing. Do you know how many ultra talented prospects came to the bigs and had a few good years before fading into obscurity
I don’t think we can remotely say he’s a lock HOF player. For baseball and for the Padres, I hope he is. But you generally business don’t make insane deals like this unless the return on investment is near a sure lock. We just can’t say that at this stage in his career. Couple years from now? Maybe, today? No. It’s that classic risk/reward analysis. Yes, this has so high reward, but the higher likelihood of risk seems to far outweigh the potential reward.
@bravesfan – Look I’m gonna say it…you couldn’t be more right.
Bravesfan: Seems like you came to the right party! All fans will say this now and then when something goes wrong say, “Well we couldn’t have predicted this; look at the Stanton deal; how could they have known that was going to happen when he was so young;” or any one of a million of the other invariable problems that make this a bad idea for the Padres without luck.
Now, IF he happens to ride this out and is a success, they’re all geniuses and this was as easy a call to make as any, except, if you look, this doesn’t ever happen for a reason. Many top prospects have had a really good-great freshman year, only to have slumping years later.
No doubt. It obviously can be a steal. But typically before you pull the trigger on a high cost risky move like this, you have more evidence (years/stats/experience) that he can perform at this contracts price tag and can stay healthy. It softens the risk to a point.
Dodger fans make up 5-6% of MLBTR’s readers… I know because of the F votes.
Nah. Dodger fans also gave them D’s. I did. Other people think your front office is stupid, not just your rivals
Point taken even if I was just having an easy crack on the poll! Cheers bud
I’m a Padres fan and I gave the team a D. Some people can be objective about their team.
A/A-My guess is that the next CBA will salary increases more like 4% than what we’ve seen.
Start with whatever you think Lindor takes down. That could be as high as $360M/12. Lindor is more proven, but he will start his new contract at age 28. Tatis starts his at age 22.
It starts age 22 but he should be making peanuts compared to what he’s actually getting. Seems to be missed by so many
He signed Bryce harpers total deal 4 years or Machado+ for just his free agent years, before playing 162 total
Pretending salaries are going to exponentially rise to help you justify your feeling about today’s contract is one warped outlook on reality
This contract will be easily compared to Betts 12/$365M. To say this contract is anything less than a C is laughable because then you could look at Betts contract. I will put my money on Tatis’ contract over Betts’.
Comparing Tatis today to Betts today is the dumbest comp I’ve heard in a while. Look at their resumes
Tatis will be lucky to ever be as good as Mookie has been for his whole career
That’s an incredibly naive take on Tatis’ contract. You’re looking at Tatis’ Max career performance at peak value, and Betts as is… Tatis is a one-season ball player with potential. There are so many more reasons why this doesn’t work out than the one perfect course in life where it does. Which, btw, is why teams don’t usually do this. Padres are hedging a (all-in?) bet.
Mookie is well established, has proven his durability and demonstrated that he is one of two top players in the entire game. He has actual stats, not predictive ones. You simply cannot out Tatis (whom I love as a young ball player, btw) and Mookie in the same sentence and be honest.
Honest answer for now is a C. It was too early to have to pay him this, but if he reaches his potential its a steal. Preller will get the usual praise just for making flashy moves. Like the Snell trade where they gave up a massive asset and most people act like it has no chance of backfiring.
Preller is a very bad contract negotiator. Hosmer deal took the cake, outbid for Machado by 50mil to next closest guarantee (20%) and Tatis deal could have been done in 2yrs when you are talking about a willingness to guarantee any player 340mil. They are really good though for now, so both can be true if starters are okay.
You pay the player, you get the player.
How do you grade a paper you just started? Same theory because until completed what do you have? It’s a pointless exercise at this point.
How anyone gives this anything but an A for Tatis is beyond me. He will be making $150,000 for every major league game the Padres play over the life of the contract. How is that anything but a great deal for Tatis?
Tatis gets an A.
That’s almost 4 tons of one hundred dollar bills. Ya know?
Good gravy. He absolutely had to take that & it’s a truly absurd amount of money.
I give the Padres a B.
There is certainly a huge amount of risk here. But I like how they’ve committed to him from the very beginning. No service time stuff. & now make him The Guy.
This is Preller spiking the ball after one of the better off-seasons we’ve seen a GM have recently. I’m not close to a Padres fan – at all – but it’s hard not to be excited for their fans.
You drink for free at Petco, let me know when you’re in town. This man gets it! [Salute]
Noted.
Man, I remember posting with you before the off-season got going. You must be stoked!
You guys mopped up. I know you can’t win a pennant in February, or whatever, but the Padres look hella good.
I’m a big fan of Yu Darvish. He’s one of the pitchers I go out of my way to watch throw. He’s a blast. Throws 8 or 9 different pitches. If you are not familiar with him you’re in for a treat.
Anyway, I’ll catch some late night Yu starts.
[Santi]
Happier than a La Jolla clam at high tide… but the games still need to be won on the field. Always appreciate your banter, Bucky. Both Yu and You are awesome!
A for Tatis because it has him pretty much set for life, only C for the Padres because while they get plenty of excellent production, obviously, it will not be good for them financially.
The next great paradigm MLB brain-trust types has to lose (to their credit, they’ve lost quite a few counter-productive ones) is this “face of the franchise” krapola.
Red Sox fans LOVED Mookie; adored him for his talent, his approach, his overall demeanor. But if the Sox had gone to the World Series in 2020, New Englanders would walk around saying, “Mookie WHO?”.
The days of the Tigers being terrified of trading Al Kaline have long gone. Want to follow your favorite player, if your team trades him? Spend a few bucks, get mlb.tv. Watch him to your heart’s content. Follow him on twitter; like him on facebook. . A million ways to show your love and affection, in the modern age.
It’s VERY likely, given history, that at some point the contract will become a problem, an iceberg in the sea of attempted contention.
Look, I like the guy too; he’s a trip, beyond the obvious talent. MLB needs to feature the Tatis-s, Lindor-s, etc. a lot more than they do. But i can see a lot of problems here.
Yeah but the Red Sox didn’t win, had a horrible season, and didn’t have their best/most popular player as consolation entertainment.
You’re right fans would have been happy of they won the World Series without Betts, but now they get to be sad about losing and about not having Betts.
But they likely would have lost Betts anyway and now they have Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong instead of an extra draft pick.
This move give Padres credibility. A all the way. He will be 36 at end of deal, perfect time for it to end.
Not really…he hasnt really done much in the majors yet…he didnt deserve that contract
LOL
Who is a better play Tatis or Mookie?
You spelled Trout wrong in your question, and it is between them both. It is Trout, but if Mookie maintains it’s going to be a fight.
Its weird that so many people graded this an A for the Padres. How can anyone justify paying that much on someone who hasnt done jack in the major leagues yet
If you’re going to disagree with someone at least try to back it up with some facts. Going with “he hasn’t done Jack in the major leagues yet” pretty much throws your credibility out the window. He clearly has performed at an elite level while in the majors.
Be better man. That was some weak sauce.
Two half seasons= hasn’t done jack. Look at the big picture
Was eligible for arbitration at the end of 2021, not 2022.
Do I like the deal? Honestly no. I feel it’s way too risky for someone who is, although electrifying, an unproven commodity. I can’t argue with his performance AT ALL. There just aren’t enough games under his belt for me to feel comfortable about it. Now that I got that out of the way there is this…..
That POV is me looking from the outside. The only ones who truly know if this is going to be a good deal is the owner/President/GM and Tatis himself. They saw something in him the rest of baseball didn’t and traded for him, he developed into a stud in their system, they called him up opening day when the rest of baseball plays stupid about controlling a player and delaying their free agency and instantly became one of the games most dynamic contributors, he has grown up under that organization and he has rewarded them every step of the way and it’s not a one way street. Who knows what their relationship is and who truly knows what Tatis’ loyality is. If you ask me it’s something special between those in charge of getting this deal done and Tatis because this is a game changing deal that doesn’t get thrown out without certainty that Tatis will run through a wall for this organization day after day.
If I’m looking at this as a sabermetrician, I think it’s a bad deal. If I’m looking at it as a bleeding heart fan who believes in tangibles existing that can’t show up in the box score, I absolutely love it.
I’m going with the latter. The rest of baseball should take note of how the Pads dealt with Tatis from the start. Look how is has electrified that fan base and will continue for a decade plus to come.
These contracts always seem to be tremendously beneficial for the team that makes the deal. That Stanton deal is working out great. Correa developed an injury history pretty quickly, Seager too.
This deal may work out for the Padres overall, but each time over the next 14 years Tatis gets hurt, or slumps, this deal will be scrutinized. Heck, he doesn’t even have a full season under his belt and would’ve been under team control for years, but now that’s some pricey control. So much has to go right for this to be a “good” deal.
Love the commitment from both sides!
Look at the Rockies and Trevor Story. They saved money by not extending him through arbitration, now they are screwed. He had all the bargaining power or he will walk.
Tatis at 24 million a year, he is worth it now
Remember Yasiel Puig?
Kris Bryant
A for Tatis, C for Padres. They could probably have waited two years and gotten the same deal, with more track record to go on. If he’d performed similarly over the next two years, offer a 12 year deal for $340M.
I would put it B for both.
Tatis definitely sacrificed a chance at bigger bucks. By the time he reached free agency he would have been a candidate to break the $500m barrier, given inflation and the usual league growth. So yeah, the potential earnings he gave up is not a small deal. But the no trade clause is a big deal for me. He is set, and can basically decide the arc of his career with that contract. The security won out over maximizing his earnings.
The amount of years means this won’t actually be that bad for the Padres on the back end. The assumption should be that by time they’re in year 7/8, Tatis’ earnings then will be roughly equivalent to $15m now. Not a back breaker on the payroll. This shouldn’t function like a Pujols or Miggy contract in that way. Weirdly, the risk is kind of front loaded. If the team fails to really challenge or usurp the Dodgers, and the local fans don’t increase their revenue enough, then they’re likely going to have to make some hard decisions two-three years from now. Especially if either Machado or Tatis crater. Decisions like “can we afford Clevinger, Snell, Paddack?” It doesn’t seem like a likely scenario that they end up having to bail out financially by dumping good pitchers, but they’re not that financially different from the Indians, and the Indians ended up dumping payroll after cresting at about $145m, so it’s not unprecedented that a team like this can suddenly reverse course once the balance sheets start looking a certain way.
Guys with 10+ year deals and over 30M aav
Trout, Betts
End list
Tatis is now #3. How much did he possibly give up? Inflation in mlb is barely 3% and there’s no reason to suspect that changes. You’re just making things up to justify your opinion
But the real question is how many years before the padres trade him away.
Tatis needs to stop dolphin diving for routine ground balls. If he stops dolphin diving for ground balls, he might stay healthy long enough to play out his contract. I doubt it.
I genuinely don’t understand people who don’t give Tatis an A for this deal. “Oh but if he waited a few years, he could have gotten more!” WHO CARES? What is the effective difference between having $350 million & $500 million? Both are far beyond the threshold of guaranteeing his entire family’s wealth for generations to come. If it’s just a matter of status or breaking a contract record, then I ask again, who cares? (Yes, I know some players do care, but why should any of us?)
For real. Tatis can now play care free. Nothing to strive for/earn anymore. Stats maybe? Most players play and train hard to get that 1st maybe 2nd big contract before they retire. He might as well pull a Miggy and gain 80lbs, because he’s got a careers worth of job security. Just focus on outside investments, take it easy every offseason, stop pushing to improve. It wouldn’t matter, he’s set. Padres, you played yourself
Not to mention that having that kind of money two, three years early means you can invest it and turn it into 500 million by the time you are done anyways. Time does matter for these payments as well when you are evaluating value.
It’s like trying to grade a trade. You won’t know how it turns out for awhile. We shall see.
Acuna Jr contract now definitely A for team and D/F for player
Tatis is the type who is great when he is motivated. But he is also the type to lose interest quickly. When you add in the fact baseball’s popularity is cratering and their main fan base is dying off I think this contract will be a nightmare in a few years for the Padres.
Yea there are no little leaguers anymore. Give me a break this country is sports crazed and it ain’t going away.
Attendence and TV ratings say otherwise. Young people don’t care. Boomers are dying off daily. Baseball will be NHL level popular in a few years. It will be interesting seeing small market teams like the Padres try to wiggle out of these $30 million a year contracts.
This country USED to be sports crazed. Not anymore.
How do you know how he’s motivated? Do you personally know him?
I know he is a 22 year old pampered rich kid. The odds of him being distracted with wine, women and the other trappings of being a multi millionaire are greater than him being the next Cal Ripken. This contract has disaster written all over it.
Joe Ferguson this may be the stupidest comment I’ve seen on this subject!
If anyone plays for the sure enjoyment of playing it’s FTJ.
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
If it was all about the money he would have demanded a 5-6 year deal so he could cash in again.
And he wouldn’t have discounted the next 3 seasons.
Give your opinion all you want…. but to just say “Tatis is the type who is great when he’s motivated ” is just a stupid comment!
Have you even seen him play?
The message board does not seem to reflect the voting. I love it for both sides.
I gave it a D, ida waited 365 days till after the next new CBA was worked out and to see his 600th career at bat
This is a bad extension on the Padres part. There is a new CBA on the horizon that is going to turn the entire pay structure on its head and Tatis still has yet to play a full season of games. There’s definitely a chance it turns out well, but it was WAY too early for this kind of money. Good for Tatis to cash in so early though.
This team is reminiscent of the Marlins from several years ago…..
I had to grade it as a B for both. I don’t think it’s unfair in terms of dollars for him, but he didn’t get any opt outs, even though he does have a NTC. Being locked in for that long could come back to haunt him in the long-term. For the Padres, they got a fair deal in dollars, too, which could look like a steal in the future, but if injuries derail his career or he tails off a bit (he still hasn’t played a full season’s worth of games), they’re still locked in. Basically, the dollars are fair, but being locked in for that long would give me pause.
The opinions on here are across the spectrum.
Looking with your heart vs thinking with your brain. That’s the difference
If we take an analytical look, the Padres could have had Tatis under control and arbitration through 2025 (if they kept him down for two weeks in 2019), this contract pays him slightly more than $55m through 2025 including his 2019/2020 salaries. That is in line with Lindor and Bryant. Bryant woulda been about 62m if 2020 paid full wages and Lindor about 51m with full 2020 wages (not including signing bonuses).
Tatis then gets 9/286m, which is between Arenado and Machado.
Sure Tatis could have made more if he held out for free agency but this contract mirrors the best infielders pay out there. Even if he could have gotten 10% more, he could end up with 60% less. This is a major win for Tatis. I would grade the club at a C. Maybe it works out for them, maybe it blows up in their face.
Tatis actually left a lot of money on the table, so I dont know how it could be an A for him.
Definitely an A for the Pads
Spare me. No one has a clue.
The grade is “We’ll See”.
20/20 Hindsight Cheap Shot of the Day:
F for the White Sox
WSox doing just fine with Tim Anderson on a well executed gamble extension many of us were concerned about before ’19 breakout. Roster construction is about locking in many good position players at solid money (not crazy for 1 or 2 guys to get hand claps). Pitching always king….need serious money available for ace type starters whether in-house or taking on in a trade.
I think this is a fantastic deal for both parties. My Padres assume considerable risk, but lock of a generational talent for the bulk of what could be a Hall of Fame career. The list of players who’ve performed similarly at such a young age is a short list almost entirely populated by HoFers. The Baseball Jesus might be leaving $100M or more on the table, but who in their right mind passes on $340M guaranteed for a possibility of greater riches years down the line. My Padres, in the meantime, engender massive community goodwill in a city scarred by the Chargers’ defection to L.A. The excitement here is palpable. Big win for the club, The Baseball Jesus, and especially for the fans.
i see contract limits coming soon
Never gonna happen.
No way they can limit contracts when revenues remain on a massive upswing
The owners still pull in more money than the players
A for both
1. Tatis has lifelong security
2. He will be with one team for his entire career
3. Padres could have gotten a great deal with this if he continues on his current path
4. Its important for the city of San Diego to have a face of the franchise
5. The Padres have the most marketable player in the league
Id be a touch cautious projecting long term marketability in todays cancel culture …..it just takes one bad night @ gaslamp…….. Theres also a solid chance hes not even the best player on the team the next 4/5 years
A “solid” chance? He’s highly likely to still be the best player on the team in five years. And cancel culture will soon go the way of Jim Crow, McCarthyism, and other movements borne of idiocy and intolerance. At least I hope so.
LanceRichardson unless CJ Abrams is all we hope him to be!
But then….that’s a win/win for the Padres and their fans.
If Tatis is what we know he will be and “not” the best player on the team……sign me up!
If Abrams turns out to be better than Tatis, our Padres are going to be winning a LOT of ballgames.
You can’t honestly tell me someone is the face of the franchise if they only played two half seasons. You’re gonna need some more accolades under your belt first
Tatis is 6th in HISTORY in OPS+ before turning 22.
Every one ahead of him is a hall of famer.
The next NINE behind him are also hall of farmers other than Juan Soto and Hal Trosky.
And Trosky would have been if not for injury.
Pretty sure he’ll be just fine as the face of the Padres.
I’m sure they’re already making a plaque and clearing a space for his display in Cooperstown.
@mrpadre19 Reasonable, BUT, how many players have missed 3 months in two six-week periods to injuries, especially back injuries, and even so have been worth $340m in constant dollars through their age 35 seasons?
I believe the answer is none, so go down the list—anyone worth 330m? 32om? How far down the list do we have to go?
“And Trosky would have been if not for injury.”
–Sure, and what are the odds we’ll be saying the same about Tatis, Jr.? 10%? 20%? 30%…
Trosky’s “injury” was migraine headaches that affected his eyesight. It was a medical condition, not an injury.
He’s quite clearly the face of the franchise, and the most recognizable active player in MLB. That this has occurred in just two years is testimony to his combination of athleticism, grace, performance, and charisma.
It’s odd to hear so few analysts mention in other than passing the two 6-week periods Tatis, jr., missed in 2019.
Accurate comps will explicitly look at young players and other, similar cohorts who missed multiple significant periods to injury, particularly injury notorious for recurring.
Obviously a great player, and insurance at significant cost will mitigate some of the risk, but the risk wrt his health is being significantly underestimated.
Tatis would’ve been arbitration eligible after this year, not next year as the article says.