FEB 22: The Padres have announced their mega-contract with Tatis (via Twitter). Tatis will make $1MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022, $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM apiece in 2025 and 2026, $25MM in 2027 and 2028, and then $36MM yearly from 2029 through 2034, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
FEB 17: The Padres have agreed to a historic 14-year deal with superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). It is worth a guaranteed $340MM, Robert Murray of Fansided adds on Twitter. The deal provides Tatis with full no-trade rights, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. There’s a $10MM signing bonus.
While the deal covers a staggering number of years, it’ll only take Tatis through his age-35 season. The young superstar only just celebrated his 22nd birthday.
This pact sets a record for pre-arbitration deals by a rather healthy margin. The great Mike Trout had held the record with a $144.5MM deal. In Trout’s case, of course, the contract covered only six seasons — until it was further extended a few years later. Tatis’s guarantee falls just shy of the $360MM of additional money Trout received in the second agreement. It’s such a monster deal, in fact, that it slots in as the third-largest of any kind in baseball history.
[The 20 Largest Contracts In MLB History]
While this deal won’t change the complexion of an increasingly loaded 2021 Friars roster, it makes for a bold statement of intent by the San Diego organization. The club could’ve sat back and enjoyed Tatis while waiting to see how its roster situation evolved. Instead, the Pads have effectively declared him the franchise cornerstone for the foreseeable future.
Tatis would have reached arbitration eligibility after the 2022 season, so he was still a full campaign away from securing serious earnings. The MVP Sports client had been slated to reach free agency after the 2024 season, at which time he’d have been marketing his age-26 and beyond years.
This deal represents the culmination of a fascinating series of developments involving Tatis. At the time the Padres acquired him — in what turned out to be an all-time heist of a deal — Tatis was noteworthy mostly because of his namesake father, former big leaguer Fernando Tatis. The younger Tatis quickly blossomed into one of the game’s most-hyped prospects, though some worried about his strikeout rate and ability to stick at shortstop.
[How Did The White Sox Trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?!]
At this point in the spring of 2019, the Padres appeared set to keep up a steady building process, with Tatis opening at the Triple-A level and trying to earn his way into the majors by mid-season. Instead, the club inked Manny Machado to a $300MM pact, then went on to promote Tatis to the MLB roster to open the season. That decision seemed to some a foolhardy gambit, as even a brief delay would’ve allowed the Friars to delay Tatis’s free agency by a full season.
Now that Tatis has joined Machado to form the most expensive left side of an infield in baseball history, it’s fair to wonder if the daring promotion helped set the stage. While Tatis’s agents gained added leverage in negotiations, the good will surely helped the small-market Pads convince Tatis to commit to the organization instead of holding out for a potential bonanza in free agency.
Though Tatis has logged just 143 MLB games to this point — the product of an injury and global pandemic — he has done nothing but impress. Through 629 plate appearances, he has produced at a healthy .301/.374/.582 clip (good for a 150 wRC+) with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He not only improved his plate discipline but generated much greater defensive value in his sophomore season.
Padres GM A.J. Preller had already given fans of the organization ample reason for excitement — even if it’ll still take a herculean effort to take down the perennial favorite Dodgers. Now, the Friar faithful will have the chance not only to watch one of the game’s most entertaining players, but to do so knowing there’s a real chance he’ll be a lifetime franchise icon.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Let’s go!!!
YES!!!! Padres dynasty!!!!!!!
@Hosmer: Putting all of your chips on a player who’s never played a full season of baseball? Ballsy move, friend. Laughable, but ballsy.
I agree 100%. Borderline insane imo
He has 629 PAs. through 143 games over two years. I think it’s fair to call that a season’s worth of data.
Obviously there’s risk in this, but you can bet the contract is insured, and there’s no denying the potential reward.
He put up crooked numbers through age 21. There are a lot of prime years still in front of him.
No kidding!!
Baseball cannot claim poverty prior to the upcoming MLBPA negotiations when a team like the Padres spends hog wild during the pandemic. I’ve primarily been on the owners’ side during most of the time but this changes things for me.
Laughable?? I think your comment is what’s laughable. Tatis is already one of the top five best players in the game and they got him at a discounted AAV oh and by giving him this contract they insure his happiness which many teams don’t do. Most teams would make him grind it out through arb years then play hardball during negotiations. I’m not even a Padres fan and I love this deal for them. Jealous fans crack me up. I can only wonder what clowns gave thumbs up to that nonsense.
I would have at least waited til the spring training drug test results were in. Hate to find out he Braun’d after the ink dries.
You’re going to declare him one of the top five best players in the league after 629 PAs? Maybe bump those breaks a little bit
Stop it! He is not a top 5 player after two half seasons! Silly
Could be another Shane Spencer
Kenny Williams will never be confused with the great GM’s in the game.
Let’s also not forget that he had a stress fracture (overuse injury) in his back at age 21. That would sure make me wonder about giving him a 14-year, almost half-billion dollar deal.
I think “borderline insane” does not quite cover it. Look, it is not my money or my team; but this gamble is full metal jacket, bat sh.t insane! I love watching Tatis play and wish him a long and illustrious career but he has 629 AB’s for goodness sake. I am not sure how Preller got this deal done but get ready for every decent ballplayer asking for outrageous money. “Well yeah it’s a lot but it is not Tatis dough.”
Can’t wait to see what Boras asks for Seager now. He actually has a track record.
No, what’s insane is Bobby Bonilla will still be being paid AFTER this deal expires.
That’s like the opposite of a seasons worth of data. Not only is it fewer games, but it’s intentionally NOT linear in a game that has ebbs and flows in production
He’s more or less has to be a top 10 player now. Insanity
And btw MLBTR, STOP CALLING THE PADRES A SMALL MARKET TEAM. They have one of the largest TV deals in the game in one of the most populated portions of the largest state in the country. Their half their IF has 300M deals. Just stop with the hyperbole
Actually, a lot of money, but, the contract is just over a 1/3 of a billion. The amazing thing is that he will just be turning 35. Enough time for one year big money contracts at the end.
That was my initial reaction as well. 14 years and all that money for a guy with less then a full season of stats is absolutely crazy. But lets think about it in terms of contract inflation.
2008: A-Rod $275M and everyone thought that number was out of control. Who pays almost $30 million a year and commits to that long?
Since then $300M contracts have become the norm. Machado, Harper, Trout, Betts, Stanton. While it felt like a long time, all that happened in 10-12 years. So in 5 years, its easy to think 12 to 13 years and $325M could be the norm for a superstar caliber player.
However, I think the Pads neglected to factor in how Covid-19 impacting 2 seasons will impact inflation. Contract inflation is going to slow with owners being budget conscious, so at best I think this is a “fair value” contract. I don’t think the Pads left themselves much room to “win” this deal, but they could have saved a bit by inking this now if Tatis becomes the superstar he seems to be.
I just don’t see the normally team friendly risk/reward balance here. The Padres are taking all the risk and not leaving themselves much financial space to be rewarded. But its clear they wanted to make sure they retained a superstar to build around. Remember, its not always easy to attract big talents to smaller markets .They tend to make less in endorsements, etc. You also have to factor in the tax situation in California. $100M in Texas is less then $85M in California, so he’s losing at least $50M extra to taxes. There are a lot of things to factor in that make it hard to argue over $20-40M extra.
Let’s wait for a chip before we say Dynasty, OK? But, well done Pads
How about get to the playoffs without it being an expanded format in a 60-game season first before the dynasty talk.
@VBarry Totally agree
They look good on paper, but the dodgers are still reigning champs and have won the west for nearly a decade straight
Im all for someone dethroning them, but win one before ya talk dynasty
@ VBerry. Same logic (and asterisk) applies to WS ring last year
You’ve never smelled the series. We’ve been there 3x in 4 years. You haven’t won the division in 15 years? While we are on 2nd longest consecutive streak in history. But Nice try Brewer
@Lurking. I’m a Giants fan. Say again?.
Even as a cubs fan. I hope SD wins with the group they have. Put ’84 and ’98 behind them.
2025 World Series Champions San Diego Padres
We don’t have to put ’84 and ’98 behind us. We were NL Champs, so why would we ignore our history?
Beating your Cubs was the sweetest part of ’84.
That’s funny you mentiom the ’84 NL Champs.
When my parents were married for maybe 3 years at the time. When the cubs do what they do and blew a 2-0 series lead. My dad was so upset he went out to the backyard and buried his cubs hat. This was all before I was born. My grandparents thought he was crazy.
I could go on with stories with my dad and his dad when he was a kid.
Long story short my grandpa got drunk at a game vs the NY Giants. Willie Mays hit like 3 or 4 doubles. He kept saying “what’s that a-hole doing on 2nd” lol unfortunately neither saw the cubs win.
Dynasty easy does it they haven’t won a damn thing !!!
Doesn’t a “dynasty” imply you’ve actually won something already?? I’m sure Cubs fans thought they had a dynasty also with all their young talent they had assembled and they “only” have one title to show for it. Goes to show you how tough it is to win multiple World Series, no matter how good you look on paper.
Ditto Houston.
Soto will easily break that contract. Your lucky Tatis isn’t a Boras client. We wont be able to extend Soto until he hits FA
He’s a Boras client? Theres about a 5% chance he stays in DC. They’d need to extend him within the next 3 years
The Nats do tons of deals with Boras clients.
Yes I know rhat but we’re they homegrown? They lost Rendon and Harper. And way back when they lost Jayson Werth
As a Giant I like extending homegrown talent, I just don’t like that long of an extension. So much can happen to a player, like Stanton for example. Hope this young shortstop the best.
Yeah.
I figured this would be a pretty boring article. Then I read the first sentence.
Pretty wild deal.
I don’t really know what to make of it right now.
Hope it works out for both of them.
That’s a fortune for a player. Good luck Padres with that contract. The Mets must put on the table a similar offer to Francisco Lindor.
Lindor is good but not great. No chance I’d offer him that anything close to that contract.
No, Lindor is great. People are reading too much into his short subpar 2020 season.
DTDATL-Lindor is one the true 5 tool players in baseball. If you were building a team from scratch. He would be one of the top 15 players taken. He has no holes in his game and has the numbers to prove it. 2020 wasn’t a great year for him but there were a lot of great players that had not so great numbers in 2020. Arenado,Bellinger and Yelich just to name a few.
I agree about Lindor, but I cringe when I hear the label “five-tool.” That’s what they called Alex Ochoa. If you don’t remember him, I’ve made my point.
Phenomenalajs-like the user name. The only difference with Lindor and Ochoa is Lindor has proved that he can do everything really well for multiple seasons. Ochoa was very talented. But never put it all together the way Lindor has.
Metsfan42632- Lindor is great. He is elite. He is also 27 years old as opposed to 22. But this deal is mind blowing. FTJ has elite written on him and I personally hope that holds true for the kid as a baseball fan he’s fun to watch. They both are. That said Frankie will get paid but not this kinda money. This is the stupid money Middleton was talking about and Preller said hold my beer.
DTDDATL –
I had no idea of your intelligence until I read that comment. Now I know everything I need to know. If you can’t grasp the fact that Lindor is not only great, but a generational talent, then I have no more to say to you
Well, actually kcj, I don’t recall you being asked to say anything.
It was also said about Mason Williams, Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson. Obviously, it was not true for even one of the three, despite the fact that Tabata and Jackson had some seasons that were pretty good.
At this point Hank. Lindor is good and you’re reading too much into his one great year…
KCJ
Generational talent? Lindor has a career 117 OPS+. I guess, in your mind, Brandon Belt should have his own wing in Cooperstown with his 122 OPS+. DTD was being generous.
400m 12years
Lindor is not 22. I would expect him to sign a 240 million 10 year deal at the least if he wanna take a paycut
That’s a big commitment. But I think he’s worth it. Besides being a great young talent. He has that IT factor. He’s very marketable and is gonna make the Padres a ton of money.
@Metsfan
Tatis is already hawking Gatorade, he’s the face of Topps, he’s the face of MLB 2021, that video clip of him flipping the bat after the home run against the Cardinals is already legendary. He’s going to bring the Padres onto the big time stage, and for that he’s worth the money.
Yep I can’t wait until 2023 when the Padres start unloading all the high priced talent they have to restock their farm system. The Pads do this every few years. They load up on high price talent then realize they have to pay them and then unload them. Snell, Darvish, ETC will all be gone in two years.
Suck it, Bryce.
Also Manny then too I suppose. Coupled with Manny’s contract, yikes, that’s a lot of money for a lot of years.
Yikes? Having good players is good.
Not always. Having what at the moment are good players is often expensive, and misleading.
I mean, LA extended Betts too
Despite living here I have no vested interest in Dodgers. (O’s fan.)
Why do you think money is more important than gameplay?
Great choice on your name then
Unfortunate I suppose
So is having a winning tradition, something San Diego is unfamiliar with.
You’re an O’s fan so please you have no say in anything.
Shut up
Dodger Jr.
Hey the O’s fan can be objective, he knows his team will not be competing for the championship
JD have you learned nothing from the all albatross teams we’ve seen around baseball?
The Detroit Tigers post all their ridiculous deals? The Angels? Look at Boston now. When you lock multiple guys up for that many seasons you obliterate flexibility. It doesn’t usually wind up looking good. Now, if they win a couple WS along the way, they’ll be thrilled. But the Pads have limited their flexibility. They still have a top notch farm and this could work out very well.
Just a massive gamble to take. Hope he’s not the next Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant. Who went from great to good because that’s way too much money for good.
Count the number of deals with 100M remaining on LA payroll
Now count the number of deals with that much money on the Padre payroll. No it’s not the same
Betts is a culture changer
Commitment to the players and fans, its called winning
Not yet it isn’t.
Sorry but those are two different things.
Exactly paying over 600 mil to two players on left side of infield very risky
Risky for whom?
I know they’re tearing down Jack Murphy/Qualcomm Stadium.(The Padres old ballpark) So I’m asking, Did the Padre owners find some loot buried there? A few years ago they were pinching pennies.
@angle – The new Padres ownership group that took over in 2014 has always been willing to spend money. The issue for them was that their previous owners took on too much bad debt, and they have been slowly repaying it since they bought the team. I believe they finally got out of their major debt commitments in 2019, and they have been spending a lot of money since then.
@angle
Jack Murphy’s vault! Call Geraldo!
Really Dan? You call still paying for Manny, Hosmer, Meyers and Pham being out of major debt? That’s a lot of $$$$$$$ for one good player and three average ones.
Hoffa?
Cool story. Now can you please tell where the revenue is coming from? Think about it. No major media deal, no fan attendance for probably 2 years. what makes you think they can sustain it? Look for a fire sale within 3 years.
The Padres currently have a $1.2 billion TV deal. Maybe you should look these things up before you spout off and sound stupid.
@Dodgers Jr, 1) worry about your team not the Padres, 2) when you want to base on another team..learn how to spell their players correctly…it’s Myers not Meyers…it just makes your point less valid
? Bryce got paid more.
Do you mean by AAV? If so, you’d be correct.
Bryce probably loves it. I love it. I miss franchise players and would love to see more.
You are saying suck it to someone who will make $377M over his career and might make more if he’s still got it at age 39. Good job! You r cool!
Suck it, Marty!
What does Harper even have to do with this? I truly don’t get the hate. It’s not really justified. You want to direct it to the right place? Look to the left of Tatis. Machado is a well chronocled dirt bag. Harper is just outspoken and passionate.
Did he sign with an NHL team or something?
For that he could buy an NHL team!
Whoa! That’s a lot of Ching, and a looooot of years. Hope he stays healthy and productive for both parties and the fans!
Probably some opt outs in there.
Better not be. Opt-outs defeat the whole purpose of extending him.
Not sure I know of that many who have stayed healthy superstars each year for 14 years.
@dimitri check the hall of fame. It’s full of them.
Whoa now, I know you’re not saying he’s a hall of famer, but he’s got to string together a few seasons before you can even start that stuff. This is a huuuuge risk. A lot more potential superstars who’ve lost it or their bodies just couldn’t hold up. I’m rooting for the guy – the sport and fans need these characters who stick to one team. Gives people a name to follow and face of the franchise and all that. But 14 years? That’s incredibly optimistic to say the least.
Just said where you can find them. But all stars who stay healthy usually make the hall if voters like them.
Personally I would rather give a early 20s guy 300 million over a late 20s early 30s. Injury risk is there for anybody. Any long term contract has risk.
Nearly none of whom got paid up front.
Heck most HOF’ers never got paid the big bucks
Tatis will pretty much be a Padre for life. I guess we can start calling him the new “Mr. Padre”
were talking about the padres here theyll probably trade him 5 years in
Fernando loves San Diego. As long has ownership remains stable, I think he will be happy with the Padres. I’d bet my house that he’s the top vote getter for the all star game this year if his numbers hold up.
Paying two players over 600 million isn’t a good sign for long term of the franchise.
It depends who does it. If the Dodgers did it nobody would bat an eyelid. New ownership is showing they have money and will spend, so I don’t think it will be a major problem, especially once Myers and Hosmer are off the books.
U til he opts out or demands a trade when things go south (though SD is already pretty far south).
@dimitri. He likely has several opt outs built into his contract
I would imagine so (I’m still waiting on details), so it makes it tough to call him “Mr. Padre” or a “Padre for life.” (No one is calling Stanton Mr. Marlin or Arenado Mr. Rockies.)
I’m pretty sure there won’t be any opt outs for him. Maybe buy outs by the team.
Don’t You Dare, at least not yet…
Please don’t disrespect the late great Tony Gwynn like that
I am just sad that Tony is not around to see Tatis play. Can you imagine the conversations those two would have?
We have to come up with another name. Tony will forever be Mr Padre.
How about Señor Padre?
my lord
Let’s goooo padres! Feels so good to finally have owners who are trying to win
the Padres got new owners? kindof out of the loop on this
As a padres fan you shouldn’t be happy with this contract this just hurt your window of contention.
Tatsmama, do us a favor and sthu.
Their window is wide open
Jesus, shut up, already, Tatsumaki. Just can’t let Padres fans be happy for five minutes? Two negative, garbage comments in three minutes. Yes, this closes their competitive window, I’m sure. Just go f’ing lurk somewhere else.
Already pushing 190 million in salary for the team not including tatis deal. Lol long term view all the depth they have will get expensive ahahahahaha enjoy the 2/3 year window. We will still be on top when all is said and done.
#tatsknowsbaseball
He does.
Isn’t the Dodgers payroll around $255,000,000? Should you really be talking down to another team’s fans for overspending when your own team is currently spending $65,000,000 more?
If they win even once in this hypothetical 3 year window then it’s worth it.
Our Padres fans have been talking about “windows” and timelines since Preller was hired. And they’ve been 100% wrong.
Absolutely, long term guaranteed contracts are a huge mistake, especially for a smaller market team.
That may be the point. The Giants were a money losing “smaller market team” before Bonds, even with out a WS that deal put them on the map in a big way. San Diego is making a statement that they are no longer being content as a “smaller market team” in one of the 10 largest cities in the nation. I am a Giants fan but I think what is happening in SD is exciting not just for them but the whole NL West.
Tats, This contract doesn’t hurt anything. Other contracts will come off the books over the next couple of years and they have a loaded farm system. Plus, if ownership doesn’t care about luxury tax, they’ll keep spending. You honestly just sound like a worried Dodgers fan. You afraid your 60 game WS may be the last one for another 30+ years?
People gave the Dodgers a mountain of crap for spending $100M on Bauer who “has only been good for 1.5 seasons.” Tatis just earned the 3rd most valuable contract of all time for 140 games of work. He’s a good player but the timing of this deal is baffling imo.
And after they didn’t manipulate Tatis’ service time which was supposed to make him play nice when it came time to talk contract, he holds out for 3x as much as what comparable players who did have their service times manipulated signed for.
Yet you will still finish 2nd behind the Dodgers every single year. Enjoy the WC game every year Padre fans.
Wow!
wowzers
A lot of risk, but locking up A player of Tatis’ caliber for 24 million a year is insanely good.
Insanely wrong comment there.
Tatis was going to play this year for 650K. He was going to play next year for a couple million bucks. He was going to play the year after that for let’s say 11 million. Then finally let’s project him high at 20. I’m being generous here.
They didn’t get Tatis for 24 million a year. Your comment might hold water if he was set to hit the open market but his earnings were limited due to team control.
Gigantic risk and not in the slightest team friendly. He signed a larger contract than Bryce Harper or Manny Machado when they were a free agent. This is a no brainer yes for Tatis. Nothing insanely good about it for SD other than that they know they’ll have Tatis. No discount whatsoever.
Not when he still makes 500K. Hahahaha
To the Cardinals + 100 million should do it.
That will be an albatross towards the end. They all are.
Pujols, Miggy, Votto, Price, Fielder,Davis, Tulo, Ellsbury..
But for the first 8-10 years it will be a steal to get a top 10 player for $24mm
They already controlled him for 4 years at a fraction of that cost.
Iml12-He will be cheap for the first year or 2. But if he’s as good as most people think he is. His arbitration numbers are gonna go up quickly. You also have to think about what he would cost after arbitration. If he continues to play the way he has played. He would easily be a $35m a year player on the open market. Maybe even more. Lindor is in the last year of team control and he’s making 22m this year. Some people think he will be better than Lindor. Some people think he already is. There is also talk that when the collective bargaining agreement is up. That the players are gonna negotiate shorter arbitration periods. It’s definitely a gamble but for a guy of his talent level,It’s a good one.
People talk about how much of a bargain 24 mil per year is but dont realize that the pads would have had him for super cheap for 5 or so years if they didn’t extend him so that per year average is misleading. Why don’t we throw how much he made the last few years and i the minors into that average to bring it down further
John- They realize it, they are just making points that (only) lead in one direction, kinda human instinct –
Not much different than the “This is just plain terrible” or “34 yr old professional athletes need a cane to walk around with ” crowd
Lotta middle ground here to cover, with all the craziness going on in baseball/world in the next calendar year I think I would have waited a year myself at least …
But I also think if I was a Padre fan today Id probably be pretty pumped
Huge difference between this deal and those ones. Tatis will be in his mid 30’s when it ends, not in the middle of it. They’re paying for his prime, not his past.
Those guys were all in their 40s when the contracts ended. Tatis will be in his mid 30’s. He’ll be in his decline years at that point but should still be “good.”
Get your player hate out of here. This deal locks up Tatis until he is 35. He can still be a good player when he is 35. The Cabrera and Pujols contracts are so bad because they are signed into their forties. Signing young players to big contracts is the best way to avoid the inevitable decline.
He’s 21/22 ish.
They’ll get good value out of this contract before it becomes an albatross.
If Padres are smart they’ll front load it during the younger years so when he’s 32+ he will be making less than 10 mill.
@biff 10 years from, he will be drastically underpaid.
Or, he will be an albatross. Let’s get real, after only 143 ML games, nobody knows what Tatis will be. Nobody.
In the short term, I’m excited to see my team spending to win. But, this is risky as heck for the long term and big picture view.
I don’t know, Biff, he will “only” be 35 when the contract expires. That’s certainly past most players’ prime, but not egregiously so. Plus, he should provide plenty of surplus value before he turns 30. AAV is $24 million – think about what Bauer just got, then consider that salaries will only continue to rise. This looks like a steal, health permitting.
Bauer was a free agent and only got 1-3 years. That’s a stupid comparison.
You sound like a Biff. Bet you look like one too. Gotta give you credit here though. If Tatis was in his early 30s like everyone you mentioned this would be a albatross. But…. He is in early 20s so long as health is good he will be fine.
Argue with Biff at your own peril. He has seen the future and knows the outcomes. Thank you Grays sports almanac
The big difference is that tatis, will spend at least 6 of the last 10 years of the contract in his prime.
Biff….how many of those players signed their mega deals at 22?
The Scherzer $200M+ deal is looking alright. Teams have gotten better at assessing risk and paying for future performance.
Beyond unnecessary this early into his team control. Look at what Trout and Acuna got in similar spots. Preller is going to destroy this teams window. What Tatis won’t take 340 million in a few years??
Its going to be an unpopular opinion…but I agree to a degree, and degrees are really all we speculate on here
Probably not. If he is a MVP caliber player in two seasons, he would want to top Mookie. He would probably ask for $380mm or even $400mm
Your usage of the word IF is the counter argument here-
Heres another IF . IF you got those 2 years of MVP caliber seasons on arb prices you’ve already banked tons of surplus value with Zero risk. Zero being the optimal word here. From there you can overpay with those 2 years of surplus if need be a bit…if things go South(ish) in said time then welllllllll
I dont dislike Tatis at all, hes amazing, but Id just prefer the Dodgers model of going thru arb fully (Seager and prolly Bellii) than this –
These would be the What If’s
What if the new CBA doesnt favor this kind of deal. Nobody has a clue
What if Covid gets worse this year
What if he has a major inj this year
What if we have a strike next year
And lastly What If Newsome outlaws Cats and Dogs in Cali and PetCo takes a Huge hit
Ida waited a bit
Don’t you think that the Padres are taking out insurance policies to cover any of those contingencies? This contract isn’t outrageous by any means. Tatis Jr. is the face of the ball club and will be one of the faces of MLB for years. He will pay for himself through ticket sales,merchandise sales and broadcast money. The eight year contract for Hosmer, now that was a bad deal.
You can’t be so sure of all that at age 22 and 140 games. I’m gonna give you a statline: age 23, 148 G, 165 H, .296 BA, 146 OPS+, 15 outfield assists and a .989 fielding %. This line is comparable to Tatis’ career so far and belongs to a player who was likewise a fan-favorite, butts-in-seats kind of guy. I’ll tell you now: that’s Yasiel Puig’s 2014 season. Tell me honestly that the Dodgers wouldn’t have been the laughingstock of the league to offer 23-year-old Puig the 3rd most valuable contract in history. Tatis figures to be a great player and I would bet that he has a better career than Puig when all is said and done. But 140 games is just nothing and there is so much unknown about who he’s going to be in this league.
What if you just enjoy the game in 2021 and stop being so freaking paranoid. What if you get hit by a car crossing the street, What if you are in a plane crash? Just enjoy life and stop worrying about s&&t you can’t control.
This is an observation of the contract…if your not going to associate all the variables why even post about it ? Whats the point?
Whoes worried? I find this stuff fascinating and know I have no control but Im surely not going to base all my observations on “I might get hit by a car tomorrow”
Padres assumed a ton of risk. A TON!
Great if it works out. Going to be horrendous if it doesn’t. I don’t expect other MLB teams to be jumping into this kind of thing with their pre-arb studs anytime soon
Steve, no athlete is declining 340 million guaranteed when it’s offered. Flat out ridiculous to think otherwise.
Agree
Acuna wasn’t willing to bet on himself and trouts wasn’t long term.
Acuna wasn’t willing to bet on himself? Anyone who came from the poverty he did is smart to bank as much money as possible. All players are an injury away from never playing again.
Betts got 12 for 365 with an amazing 5 year track record. Considering the arb cost for 4 years he basically got a Betts contract without the sustained success. Big risk but I don’t see the upside.
Except Tatis will still be good at end of his contract and Betts will be 40.
Id say Betts at 39 could be just as good as tatis at 35. SS is a young mans position. Not saying he won’t live up to the contract but seems like an unnecessary risk at this point in his career.
Betts could be better at 39. Would you bet 350 million on it though? And will betts be better at 35 36 37 38 than Tatis at 31 32 33 34? Who knows. I know betts was worth every penny in 2020.
Dream GM I will bet the Mookie has won two WS already and I can bank on that. Tatis will be good until he gets pissed off in a few years and will want 40 million a year but he will be locked in to SD and will demand a trade for more money.
1. Some teams don’t cave into players demands. 2. With that contract he won’t be hard to trade. 3. I am sure management has seen Tatis in person, observed him, maybe even had actual conversations with him and factored in his makeup before offering him that contract. But I have no problem with you wanting to pay someone on past performance over future performance.
There is one maybe 2 starting ss over the age of 30 in the entire mlb. This concept that in 2-3 years he will command 40-50 million dollars is pretty absurd. If he puts up greatest to ever play the game numbers, maybe. They assumed a ton of risk for no reason. They didn’t save any money or minimal at best.
You guys are also assuming baseball contracts keep growing at a fat rate. I’m not sure that’s the case. I’d expect the mega deals to taper off and grow at a slower rate.
There’s been so much money injected into the game. new TV deals have come in and severely increased teams revenue. Franchise Valuations have skyrocketed. At some point in the business cycle this high growth period comes to an end.
Oh my god
Why did it take that much? He was supposed to sign on the cheap because they didn’t manipulate his service time.
This is him signing on the cheap. It only looks like a big number because he signed for 14 years. $24 million a year for an elite shortstop is a steal in MLB.
He is not elite yet. He has yet to play a full season and was awful in the second month
Dan55 is what you call a padres homer. Naturally when tatis ages he will gain weight and when that happens he slows down and can’t play ss anymore then what? you already have machado at 3rd? Yikes the window has now closed for padres. Wait till there free agents like snell, Clevinger reach free agency and this team gets even more expensive.
What do you do? Put him at 1st if/when he’s unable to play ss anymore.
Doubt he’s going to gain significant weight at 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 though.
You may have, but that’s a you thing.
Plus he struck out more than once a game last year
As the Dodgers are shelling out $34 mil a year for a pitcher who has had one great season against an anemic NL central. Hope that Betts contract ages well as he “gains weight”. How far are the Dodgers over the luxury? Worry about your own house first. One WS victory in 30+ years and ya’ll acting like Yankees fans.
@i beg to differ is the same dude that didn’t want darvish then changed his tune once in the team. Tatis is Mediocre at 22 with the glove. Everyone adds weight as they age whether it’s fat or muscle that’s up to individual but metabolism slows down its science. Name me 1 star that lost weight as they aged. Moron lol
Lmao.
I didn’t want Darvish when you foolishly predicted he’d cost more than Snell did.
Me saying I don’t want Darvish was in response to your clear inept analysis of his value.
Did I want Darvish at the cost of Gore Abrams? No.
They got him at a great price and didn’t give up any top prospects to so.
You seem to forget that every time…..
Guess you don’t know what the word significant means idiot.
He’s going to gain weight. He’s not going to gain weight to the point where he needs to be moved off ss.
You know what age it begins to happen? Between 30 and 40 lmao. You know how you keep your metabolism active? Staying active
Something Tatis Jr does…sounds like something you’re not use to…..probably explains the weight gain.
#science.
??? Tatsu – you are the one projecting weight gains on others, not I Beg To Differ. You’ve never had great comebacks, but now you’re just plain desperate. Today is a sad day for Padres haters.
Have you seen his Dad? Dude has great genes. Suck it
Where did I project weight gain? It’s literal science. Dan you are the same cat that disappears when you get schooled about players contracts and production and simply just stop responding. It’s not hard to do when you know nothing.
You still haven’t recovered from last year’s debacle saying the World Series went through padres. 3 games later looked more like sham Diego all while tatis didn’t register a single hit or run.
You just paid him 340 million yikes
Dan55 pretty sure any doctor will tell you as you age you gain weight. No one gets lighter than they were at 17-21 metabolism slows down as we age and Father Time is undefeated
Bauer 42.5 or something a year unless he suffers a injury he isn’t staying for that 3rd year. A great year he isn’t staying for year 2.
tatsufati
Now that’s funny, the dumb guy calling someone else a moron.
Lou Gehrig…..
Lmao. Your greatest life accomplishment in life is claiming to be in better shape than someone on the internet. Yikes. It’s not too late to lose the weight man. Seriously. Dieting, exercise, and healthy life choices. You can do it. We believe in you.
“Naturally when tatis ages he will gain weight and when that happens he slows down and can’t play ss anymore then what?”
His contract extends him till 35/36
He’s not going to gain weight to where he’s unable to play ss at 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29. This isn’t a vlad Guerrero jr situation.
Metabolism begins to slow down between 30 and 40 depending on genetics and activity level.
If hes unable to play ss at 30 31 32 he moves to 1B or 3B
Machados contract runs through 2028. Tatis Jr will be 28 himself in 2028.
@Tatsumaki
He won’t gain a significant amount of weight. Have you seen his dad lately? He’s still a stud at 46. And Jr. got his height from his mother’s side of the family. So he’s an ectomorph, tall and lanky and naturally not prone to weight gain.
Tatis is also bigger than Manny Machado was. Machado didn’t grade out as a good SS when he played out there again at an older age.
But Tatis is quicker than MM ever was so there’s a shot he’s a quality SS for most of the deal. Plays an out of control kind of style though. Hopefully that doesn’t get him hurt every year. That’s a risk too.
Lol while acuna makes $2 million and he has the same service time. Major over pay period
Are you just ignoring the control they already had over him at a much lower price? That just shows that you’re being disingenuous.
No it’s not on the cheap. It’s more than 3x as much as what comparable players got. And as mentioned they already had him signed for 4 more years on the cheap (should have been 5 more). And if this has any opt-outs then they will have to up his pay if he stays good.
this might be too quick of a step for Preller and the Pads, hopefully he holds up
Can’t wait for all these long term deals to turn into albatrosses like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.
You’re an idiot. Tatis will be 35 at the end of this contract. Pujols n them were signed well into their 40s.
The padres got a STEAL, cause with inflation, in 7 years, in his prime, 24m a year will be peanuts
Exactly. 14 years from now, 24 million is going to be the new 14 million with inflation and the MLB cash cow. Even those back years won’t be too painful for them, barring injury.
Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols signed their deals in their early-30’s, Pujols may have been approaching his mid-30’s. Tatis Jr. will only be 35 when he hits FA again.
Massive overpay and as a dodgers fan it will be enjoyable to see padres depth dwindle due to this signing.
Hosmer 7/140 million
Machado 10/300 million
Tatis 14/340 million
What about the rest of the team clevinger, snell, gore, cornenworth, Grisham? Lolololol
We’ll be waving bye on our way to the World Series for 9 more years with all of them. Hope you enjoyed your one dude lol
Your not even good enough now with youth on your side and slim payroll what makes you think that will change the next 9 years???? We going back to back this year.
This comment has serious “crying face behind mask” meme energy to it.
Totally agree
It’s not an overpay at all. These contracts pay for themselves in the first few years or else owners wouldn’t do them. As everyone here knows, MLB owners care about making money above all other things. This contract should be considered an investment in the franchise’s future, just like the ones for Betts, Harper, Machado, and Trout are. Each of those contracts is making owners even richer than they were before.
Are you seriously trying to say every contract an owner signs pays for itself? How’s that Chris Davis contract looking for the O’s? Surely they wouldn’t have signed it if they didn’t get their money out of it.
Shouldn’t you maybe let Betts play a few years before saying his contract has paid for itself?
@tatsmama. And our payroll will still be below the dodgers..
Not next season. Can you count? Kershaw 32 million, kenley 18 million, Kelly 12 million, Taylor 8 million and if bauer opts out 40 million. And still on pace for more wins than padres. Wait till padres have to pay everyone else hahahahahahah
Tatsumaki, You are looking at it all wrong. The Padres are investing money to make money, which is what all good teams and businesses do. These owners didn’t become wealthy by throwing money away. In addition to being a Dodger fan, I am also a baseball fan and this is happy news for the sport I love best. The Padres got this right and I’m looking forward to the growing rivalry. I hope Giants climb on board in a few years as well. The more good teams, the better.
We don’t have to pay anyone else for several years and those will be aging players by then that we can move on from if we choose. Tatisumaki troll.
Padres2019ha, The Dodgers and Padres are set up similarly in respect to future payroll. Smart bookkeeping on both sides made possible by the commitment to developing homegrown talent. All those years of control on productive young players make the superstar contracts possible. It’s especially big news when a smaller market like the Padres can do it. In a way, that makes them even more of a model than the Dodgers. If they can do it, then why can’t everyone? And if those teams aren’t doing it, then they’re apparently doing something wrong.
Thanks Cey Hey for being an intelligent Dodger fan and baseball fan. Unlike the other guy who knows nothing but spends his whole days making mindless posts and calls someone else a moron. Lol.
Hammerin’ Hank, Baseball is the only sport I still follow. I’m a fan of the game as a whole, not just the Dodgers. I want to see MLB grow.
Totally agree major question marks with budget and high salary players with low upside
Myers 82 mil
Massive overpay. Says the fan of a team that just gave Trevor Bauer $40 million dollars
For 2 years with deferrals. Comes out for 28 million per season in hard cap. Get the last of his prime then send him packing. Machado and tatis both in long term deals yikes.
LOL! Take your fake WS win and get outta here.
Was the name Padres taken?
Slightly higher than my at-will work contract!
That’s nothing, look at the NBA salarys
At his age he will still have time for FA at 36
True, Turner just got a potential 50 more – Something close to 400 mill maybe by the end , Not bad
Perfect picture to have attached to the article in the app!!!!
Just over $24 million per year until age 36 season…not bad. But definitely could backfire in a very, very bad way. Preller has guts to hand out a contract like that for that long. All it takes is one injury… But congrats to the Padres and Tatis Jr. The man got paiddddddddddddd.
True, but this hopefully means that tatis will be a padre for life
Preller isn’t one with guts he’s not writing checks
Now I can eat ice cream in heavennnn
Still young enough to hit free agency after the deal. Mind boggling.
14 years?!? Wow!
Hell yes! I wonder when the opt outs are.
The Padres are going to be showing us their Tatis for many years to come.
Bravo sir
This post needs a t-shirt.
It’s been reported that the Padres and Fernando Tatis Jr. have reached a deal avoiding arbitration.
To me – IF he is one of the top players – with other contracts that are being signed – this seems low…I am surprised He jumped into this so quickly.
14 340 pretty team friendly gamble. By the time he was a free agent he would be looking at least 40 a year for 10 or 12 years minimum. Good gamble.
Finally someone understands economics
@damascusj Thanks. I find it hard to find someone on here who understands anything. So big compliment. I appreciate it.
He got free agent money total over pay sad trout had the next best pre arb deal and it was blown out by 3 times the cost.
I understand economics…..
Guy#1 If I gave you a dollar and your father gave you a dollar. How many dollars would you have?
Guy#2 1 dollar
Guy#1 You don’t know your math.
Guy#2 You don’t know my father.
…Unless he isn’t this good. That is always a possibility.
Go Padres!
Cliffs:
If your a Padres fan you like this.
The rest of us:
see the Padres screwing themselves for years to come.
You’re an idiot if you wouldn’t pay tatis 24m a year for 14 yrs, especially when I flation means that 24m won’t be nearly as much as it currently is
Ignore the control they already have over him and call someone else an idiot. Gotta love this site.
What control? The expensive arb 2? Or really expensive arb 3? Then you have to try and outbid NY and LA. If he keeps his trajectory he will be a mega star. So not only do you have to beat NY LA, you have to beat them by at least 50 million. It was either pay him now or watch him leave in 5 seasons or whatever it is.
So is he just skipping 2021 and 2022 (and arb 2 will still be less than his aav of this contract). Why would you need to beat them by $50m? But please, continue to make things up and ignore parts that don’t fit your argument.
I am just stating the facts. I don’t have a argument. Padres made their choice. But sure, they could have had a few more years at 600 grand or 5 million then a year at some teen million and another at 30 million then pay him 40 some million a year for the next 14 years after that. Maybe he isn’t as good as he looks now and they could have gotten him at 30 some million for next 14 years and pay him until he is 40. I personally like option 1. But no argument with people who like option 2.
Because more opportunities with more popular bigger teams. Athletes do make money off the field.
If he doesn’t win a championship in San Diego maybe he would feel he has better odds in LA NY.
I dunno all the reasons players choose NY LA. Just know they do. Cleveland ( and every nba team) was more than willing to pay Lebron max money. Yet he choose LA.
Facts? You mean the random $ amount, that you made up, based on (?). Or that the control they had over him is arb 3 and 4?
So you’re just going to continue making things up and ignoring what doesn’t fit your argument. Glad you clarified that!
Omg I didn’t research his service time before commenting and forgot to put down his arb 4. I am sure you can find grammar or speling errors as well. You win so you can stop replying now.
Does that mean Tatis won’t have to Uber during the off season?
And I thought nobody had any money?
Why sign him now what’s the rush.
Same as other franchises. They don’t have the distraction of this type player being a distraction as they get closer to his FA and they also show other players they’re committed long-term, which will get other players to commit to them.
Unless they pull an Arenado, or Stanton
As a Sox fan, this is a continuation of being stabbed in the heart.
558 career at-bats..
558 fantastic ABs, and the mega-prospect pedigree to back up his elite numbers.
558 tears for snoo48
Snoo48,
That’s one more than your mother and she was worth every penny.
Wow. I like it. I’m a big fan of pretty much everything San Diego has done this offseason. It’s going to be a Hell of a new rivalry between the Pads and Dodgers for many years to come.
Hard to discuss without knowing the full year-by-year, but even going by AAV *today* this makes Tatis the 22nd-highest paid player in the league. To give some context, 10 years ago he would’ve been tied for the 3rd-highest paid (behind ARod and Vernon Wells, if you wanna remember a guy or two).
What I’m trying to say is, Tatis is gonna be 32 in 10 years, and I think most people would say it’s more likely that he continues being an asset as opposed to falling off a cliff. And that $24M AAV might look very, very affordable in 2031.
Also, the matter years of the contract are not particularly important. Fans obsess over those things. Teams plan for it.
Preller didn’t need the casinos to open, he’s out here making huge bets all on his own
Rick Hahn is literally the GOAT.
Is this the longest extension in sports history?
Longest I know but I don’t follow soccer or racing. Nhl has some 12 and 13 so dunno if there is a 14. If only there was somewhere you could go (besides here) and type in a question and get results instantly.
Bobby Bonilla’s contract will end up being 34 years.
Tatis: plays 143 career games
Padres: alright we are gonna spend all our money on you
Don’t blame them one bit for making that bet either.
.301/.375/.582 39 HR 27 steals with 111 runs scored in those 143 games. And he’s 22
Man, this contract will backfire massively when, in three years, he’s arrested for some crime that, while not terribly heinous in and of itself, will constitute a moral crime strong enough that will cause him to implode. His production is plummet precipitously and the “yaaaass Queen, Padres dynasty” fans will be braying and bleating for a change in direction.
If I give you my name and birthday can you predict my future too?
I can foresee an “F” on your next English grammar and punctuation test just after the 57th hottest girl in a class of 62 shoots you down, just prior to the lunch bell ringing.
Ridiculous… a 14 year commitment… Tatis is excellent, no doubt about that, but they would have been far better off paying more annually for a shorter length, like 6 or 7 years. It’ll eventually wind up being an albatross contract, as SD will surely have to rebuild at some point in the next 14 years.
Fax and he has yet to play a full season
San Diego obviously wants him for more than 6 or 7 years.
So dumb
So smart
One word, insane.
One word, genius.
Say what u will, but I think any contract over 8-10 years is a mistake, regardless of talent level. There’s just no way to know what will happen. This is where you see teams turn signing great players into terrible contracts. Not the per year value, but giving them 3-4 more years than necessary. Seeing it now with Miggy, Stanton etc. Will see it in the future with Harper and now likely Tatis. I know he’s still young, but these kind of contracts rarely end well. Let’s hope not tho, one of the most exciting players to watch without question.
Depends, not trying to be biased as a Nats fan but I think Soto would be a good 10 year player. The thing about Tatis and Acuna is that they don’t have the hitting abilities the Soto has in terms of discipline and knowing the strike zone
Tatis also plays much better defense and is a much better baserunner than Soto. Soto is amazing, but you can’t really compare him to Acuna and Tatis because they have different skills.
My opinion is Tatis doesn’t have 2 full seasons under his belt yet. He is unproven talent with a mega deal. Hopefully this doesn’t come back to haunt the organization. He is no Trout by any means to get a contract like this. It’s going to set up others guys like Guerrero Jr, Hayes, and others
Tatis is 8 to 10 years younger than most of those deals you refer to. Harper was a fantastic contract for Philly, wouldn’t been good for other teams though.
People are going to hate on this deal, and in all likelihood, the final years will look bad. But like the Harper deal, Tatis is certainly worth the AAV right now. And more importantly having a franchise player will be great for the Pads.
He’s great as player and as a person! Good to see. It’s a hard life in the DR—even if Dad was a quality major leaguer. Baseball is the out. If you’ve got it, then take it-and secure your future.
Jesus! So risky so many things can go wrong when you commit that much money to someone who has only played 143 games in the big leagues.
Not if you have any eye whatsoever at evaluating talent.
People saying overpay as if Trevor Bauer didn’t just get 16 million more per season lmao (yes I know the difference).
These teams aren’t idiots, they are making money. Don’t be upset because players are getting paid.
Trevor Bauer was overpaid because it’s just a 2 year deal lol. The Dodgers don’t have to worry about paying for Bauer’s decline
The San Diego Padres have 2 players making $300M. That’s absurd to even think about
Anytime you hear a team cry poor and that there’s not as much money to be made as it seems, remember they’re just lying to our faces.
@Fred and they can afford it. And more teams than you think can afford it.
This deal could be a total heist to either side when it’s all said and done
Doomed. The Padres have a bad history of wasted money contracts…
Every team has.
Not Bob Nuttings Pirates. ( Had to throw that in there for the yinzers )
People jump to many conclusions. Important details are the structure, no trade, and opt outs. 24M a year for a player of his caliber is worth it, but the details are important.
A no trade was mentioned. Doesn’t seem like a opt outs deal but yes, need to see final deal. Wasn’t there a rumor of a 8 or 10 year 400 million or something crazy a month back.
Just a reminder: Baseball owners are in this to make money. Anyone who calls contracts like this dumb or a massive overpay needs to remember that. Contracts like this pay for themselves in the first few years. This is a wise investment by the Padres into their own future. They are now legit and Fernando Tatis Jr. is a must-see player if ever there was one. They’re getting their money’s worth for trading James Shields, both now and in the future.
Again, if the investment wasn’t considered worth it then penny-pinching ownership wouldn’t have done it. This is great news for baseball fans who long to see face-of-the-franchise players remain in one place.
Right on, the owners are in it for the $
Just a reminder: Many people who are in something to make money lose money. Sometimes what looks like a sure thing be turns out to be a bad bet. Baseball owners, like other investors, sometimes let their ego cloud their ability to make sound financial decisions.
Quick reminder:
Orioles signed Chris Davis. The Tigers are still paying for M-Cab. Robbie Cano would be on somebody’s books if he stopped juicing.
Hector Oliviera took his money and ran away. Teams get boned. No org is immune to shooting themself in the foot. They took a big gamble on Tatis. They took a gamble on Hosmer and Wil Myers too. Just a whole lot bigger now. They had 4 more seasons of likely high surplus value. But if that not the case—you have sunk your battleship
This will age badly!
for you
To think I got to met this kid in a parking lot after a double A game in San Antonio, and now this. Great to see a kid reach their dream and fulfill it.
Personally, I think it may be a bit too early to commit that much money to someone that is learning how to deal with fame and money, but hopefully he won’t get distracted by the amount and still focuses and produces as he has. Hoping he surrounded by good people and handles that cash wisely.
Funny how this is being called on the cheap, he is the new Mr. Padre, elite SS for years to come, massive underpay, etc. any other team series this you’re all over them. He has been in MLB for a season. All the sudden this is an easy call?
Look, no doubt he has talent but don’t be upset when other people warn you about hyperbolic statements regarding a future that has yet to be determined.
I’ve seen many of you judge quickly and harshly, and now you’re surprised to see these responses? Good luck, he will probably be a great player, or he could have two bad seasons and be Miguel Andujar for 24M.
HAHAHAHAHA, a Yankee fan is comparing Andujar to Tatis. These guys don’t even belong in the same sentence. Andujar had one year where he put up an .850 OPS. Tatis has topped that number by a lot for two years in a row, and he also plays amazing defense and is an awesome baserunner. I know you’re just sad that this deal prevents the Yankees from signing Tatis in four years, but there is no need for crazy comparisons.
@dan55 see what Dan is doing here? Nervously attacking anyone with differing opinions this him inside freaking out that padres are basing tatis production on 2 small sample size season and hoping tatis can go 162 over 14 years (highly unlikely)
I’m attacking this comment because it is bad. Comparing Andujar to Tatis is like comparing Chris Davis to Mike Trout. They are completely different players. I support differing opinions, but I won’t tolerate asinine takes comparing Andujar to Tatis.
Nope, Dan55, you forgot to read my last paragraph apparently. Reread it because I won’t rewrite it for less illiterate folks. I also don’t get upset because a player signs somewhere, because that’s incredibly childish. He’s a human being. Not a god. Yankees had a 1/29 shot in getting him in six years from now if he didn’t sign; how would that impact my perspective on his contractual agreement?
You’re overmatched in a category discussing your own player’s contract because you simply are not used to:
1- signing good players on the Padres long-term, &
2- winning
Because of the aforementioned reasons you tend to seriously overreact, for example, like declaring yourselves champions, or acting like your team is second to none when it isn’t even the best team in the NL.
So, jealous? No. Surprised? No. Compare Tatis to Andujar’s talent? No. But, Andujar finished #2 in his first year and he followed up poorly. If Tatis has issues (injury, etc) he could end up being in a similar situation. Obviously your trite commenting, coupled with your preseason championship boasting has you a bit over cooked.
@Yankee Clipper – I urge you to re-read my comment. I don’t think it’s fair to compare Tatis with Andujar. Tatis finished fourth in MVP voting last year, whereas Andujar has never received MVP votes. Tatis is also much more talented than Andujar, and has put up much better numbers than him. Tatis will never be in a similar situation to Andujar.
If you want to compare Tatis to Judge, then I would be OK with that. But comparing him to Andujar is extremely disrespectful.
Dan55 can’t read.
Let me sum up your statement Mr. Clipper:
Padres took a risk. Duh.
You’re jealous. Duh.
You think Tatis and Andujar are worthy of comparison. No
As crazy it is, it’s not as crazy as comparing Jasson Dominguez to guys like Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout and Bo Jackson. Look, I’m not saying he can’t be good, but I just don’t believe he’s the next MLB superstar.
Totally possible. Shh don’t tell that to a padres fan though. They are acting like this is some big addition. He would have been under team control for years. So silly.just relax padres fans. You have a lot to hope for with a top 2 or 3 team but you haven’t even won a division in recent memory and just got swept in the playoffs. Maybe wait to see what happens before you start gloating
Tatis and his posse will be broke faster than Mike Trout going from HP to 1st on a ground ball up the middle.
Some people are so jealous it’s unbelievable.
Does it count as jealous that I think Soto will get more but Boras won’t let him sign a fing extension
Soto is my favorite opposing player. He’s like George Brett, who was probably my favorite hitter to watch. The swagger, the intelligence, sizing up the pitcher. Every time players like that step to the plate. you sense something incredible might happen. People who say modern baseball stinks don’t know what they’re talking about. There’s as much great young talent as there has ever been. MLB is sitting on a marketing goldmine.
How is Boras keeping Soto from signing an extension? Did Boras hire that little guy from the Amish mafia to hold Soto’s family hostage or something?
First off I have seen you comment on every thing lol. Boras want his players to test the market especially top notch players so they can get big contracts. There would only bean extension if it was record breaking
It’s because Boras is generally not in favor of extensions.
“Ordinary” can’t stand to see hard-working entertainers fulfill their dreams. While they were hiding in the bathroom and not paying attention at school, Tatis was busting his butt to get better at what he wanted to do. He didn’t settle. He went after what he wanted and is achieving it.
Im a sad Nats fan rn
Awesomely risky forward thinking. While the payroll has to balance 24 million during his otherwise penny pre arbitration years, imagine the savings from the long term Luxury Tax influencing AAV hit even just three years from now sans the extension.
The Dodgers will be monsters, but this Padres team is fun to follow from the field to the front office.
LazingLeopard, as a Dodger and a BASEBALL fan I love this. Is it a sin to say I keep track of Tatis’ at-bats and switch games when he steps to the plate?
Dodgers are overrated, I hate the Padres so im not being bias. Bauer is decent. Kershaw is ageing, Bellinger is inconsistent, Seager will probably stay. Their bullpen is weak, and finally their farm system is great but that means nothing until they can prove themselves
Overrated? Until they prove themselves? Do you follow baseball at all. The Dodgers have played at a .631 clip for the past four years. That equates to 102-=60 over a full schedule. I have been a Dodger fan since 1968 and this is far and away the best it’s ever been. And it is still a relatively young team. Please do some research before spewing anymore mindless “hot takes.”
Oh no, Kershaw is aging. If only they had 6 more starters to replace him. Even worse even if he stays good he is going to be a free agent. It would be almost impossible to replace his production. Sure they will have 30 some million of extra cash. But how would you find a good pitcher for only 30 some million. I agree Luc, they are finished.
That’s a lot of time and money for a player that has never had more than 53 rbi or had more than 22 hr. He might be a great player, but, he has not proven it yet. For the Padres sake I hope he turns out to be great.
I would trade Tatis for Pujols. Pujols can beat those rbi numbers.
Man, I’ll be 34 when this contract is up.
You are a young buc
@mlb better then me. I will likely be dead.
I’m going to be 39 lmao
I Thought Padres where a small market team…guess not anymore…..crazy signing
There’s insanity…..and then there’s this.
This is non-insanity! Thanks for teaching us opposites.
Anyone saying this is a bad deal for San Diego should have a clown shoes avatar from now on.
It’s not bad. You’re crazy if you don’t think it’s risky though
Yes, any 14 year $340M contract is going to carry some risk.
It’s even more risky because of his position and his injury history. 2 of his last 3 seasons have ended in season ending injuries (2028, 2019). The only time he was healthy in August and September was during a 60 game season
2 injuries isn’t exactly an extensive injury history. Also, he didn’t invent COVID to get out of playing a full season in 2020.
I mean it definitely COULD be bad. Give it two more seasons and we’ll probably have a good idea.
Yes, any contract could turn out poorly. The Padres, and everybody else, don’t know how Tatis’ career will play out. Based on the info they have, they’re locking up what appears to be a superstar for all the best years of his career at an AAV well below what he would get on the open market.
If you have reasons you think it’s a bad deal, feel free to share them. But, the whataboutisms are tiresome.
Whoa
This is a great deal for Fernando, but it seems like a bad deal for the Padres.
Not that Tatis Jr. isn’t worth $340 million for 14 years, everything points to him being worth that and more. But they are transferring all the risk from the player to the team and not getting much in return.
Let’s say he would have earned $60 in arbitration, that means that the Padres are getting 10 free agent years for $280 Million or $28 Million per year.
That is definitely below market value, but is it sufficiently below to be worth of the risk?
Again, I’m happy for Tatis Jr. he’s a great young player that is only gonna get better, the Padres better hope he plays out the contract.
Objectively great take. Dont let a padres homer hear you talk down against tatis he is the next coming of Christ for them.
Tatsumaki — Can you please prove that Tatis is NOT the next coming of Christ? You can’t, can you? $34o million for the Lord is well below market value.
Brave- Yup; your 2nd paragraph perfectly displays the argument here and should be the template to (at least) examine here before posting
I wouldnt be too upset with Padre fans Tats , they are stoked today, let them be
I think there are 5 key factors here ida waited at least a year –
Covid,
New CBA looming
Seeing his (1st) full 162 game season play out
Regression (?)
Possible 22 strike
Cap your right 1000 percent.
“But they are transferring all the risk from the player to the team and not getting much in return.”
Yup. That’s the big concern here. A lot can change in the span of 14 years. I just hope for the Padres sake that they felt very, very strongly about him as a person before offering up this type of extension. Even then, though, it’s quite difficult to be able to look that far into the future.
It’s sort of like a long-range weather model forecast: the model itself may be very good or have a strong track record, but at those timescales, no model is going to be very good.
“That is definitely below market value, but is it sufficiently below to be worth of the risk?”
Personally, I don’t think so. Like the idea and like the approach, but if I’m a team taking on this level of risk I want more of a discount.
“Not getting much in return”?!
They get 14 years of Tatis.
Da fuq you sayin
14 years is a long time. A lot can happen. If everything works out and Tatis is a perennial MVP candidate for 14 years, then it’s a great deal. But what if something happens and he can’t perform at the same level on year 1 of the deal? That’s gonna be a long 13 years then.
Hopefully that won’t occur. The game is better with a healthy Tatis Jr. But that’s the risk the Padres are taking.
Only Fernando Tatis was going to be lucky to make 40 million over the next 4 years. So it equates to 10 years @300 million that they bought out.
While also guaranteeing that 40 million for the next four years. Doesn’t sound like the Padres got anything at all.
I love career deals. It shows loyalty on both sides.
Or the player simply recognizes that he can get a boatload of money at zero risk to himself? A ton of guys would take this deal.
He can easily be traded five years out.
I know how my Angels pay for Trout’s contract. The same jersey( style) that goes for $137..00 on The Padres website, The same style Trout Jersey goes for $440.00 on the Angels Team store.
Way to many years for so few games played.
Mistake.
Fans can get 14 years out of a jersey, awesome. I bought a Schwarber. #ThanksHoyer
The level of jealousy on this thread is off the charts.
I wonder what the insurance policy on this contract looks like
11 X 8 stack of papers with a lot of signatures I’m guessing.
I want 340 million f##k I’m jealous asf lol at least I can admit it !!!!!
While i say, get what you can WHEN you can….nope, no one is worth that kind of money. People are struggling to make ends meet and this guy, who BARELY has MLB experience, gets this kind of cash. Makes it look bad for everyone in MLB and those who can’t keep the lights on.
Your example has nothing to do with this baseball contract. It’s not your call to say what another person’s efforts are worth.
@metsfan104 – Why are you even on this site? If other people prospering bothers you so much, then you should leave. People with your opinions are in the extreme minority and there is no need to bring this hate onto this website.
People should be able to earn whatever the free market will bear.
They should then have to actually pay actual taxes on it, which can then be used to pay to address other concerns.
@metsfanwhatever I enjoy baseball and astronomy. So more great players and less people with lights on is all good for me.
Metsfan, it may be a good idea to stop putting money into baseball games if this is truly a morality concern for you
its 6 mil a year LESS than Machado’s contract… think about it,,
Trevor Bauer is gonna get 85 Million over the next 2 years,,, think about it.
and while yes, people here are saying he’s only played 1 full year (in his 2 seasons) – He’s already an excellent player… why wait for the price tag to climb by waiting to extend him?
Why now? Why later when it could just as easily been a 30 mil per year average?
This was smart… smarter than the Pujols and Cabrera signings when they knew it was doomed come their past their prime years.
Risky? Sure.. nobody knows what lies ahead for 1 year, let alone the next 14.
Barring a career ending injury,,, Its not something they’ll regret though.
The salary per year is tolerable.
I hope he stays healthy… He could/should be Baseball’s face of baseball over the next decade plus.
In your fantasy drafts in baseball this year… tell me, where you picking Tatis Jr? Top 5?
There’s a good answer to what he’s worth… Does he have a top 5 salary? Nope. Will he? Nope. Looking like a bargain to me… 🙂
He’s worth the money as he puts butts in the seats… Merchandise sales, Jersey’s, ect…
For a city with 1 team… Tatis Jr. is the man.. today, tomorrow, and for the next 14 years.
If this guy gets that kind of cash, makes the Mets think they should’ve extended Lindor sooner.
That’s going to interesting since the Mets will have four major free agents at once and deGrom’s possible opt-out the following season. They’ll also have Cano hopping back onto the payroll for three more years. They might have to get creative.
I’m sure Jerry Reinsdorf is more thrilled than ever with the Shields/Tatis deal. Look at all the money he saved.
I am sure he just loves it.
This at first glance is a lot of money. But Tatis is a special player and a special person. He is already the face of baseball. This deal will easily pay for itself as Tatis very well may be the most marketed baseball player to ever play which will bring in millions to the team. Padres are doing it right by investing heavily in a crazy time. Go Pads
What’ll happen first: Matt Holliday touching home plate or Padres2019ha addressing his silly “Noah Syndergaard for Wil Myers” trade proposals?
I’ve got my money on Matt Holliday…
Not sure? Friar fans just don’t seem too happy about giving their franchise player a career contract? Lol! Nice to see them finally happy for once. The Pads definitely did the right thing here. Tatis J.r is that special type of player that you lock up like this early on. And his price would of likely risen.
huge numbers but its not any of our money. for years we endured owners (and many fans) claiming there wasnt money to be made in the san diego market while the value of the team skyrocketed. no different than owning a house in a market which is continuously increasing. owners will recap any possible losses and reap massive profits by selling the team.
The San Diego Padres print money
Good to see a young kid set himself and his family up for generations. Has he earned it yet? Nope, and despite all of the other moves and all of the hype, this is the deal for which Preller will be judged.
Asa Dodger fan, I hope it’s a massive fail for the Padres, but I never begrudge anyone for getting paid.
You don’t begrudge anyone yet are rooting for a massive fail. Make up your mind.
I can be happy for the kid making his money while I hope his team tanks. There’s no conflict in that.
Why do you want the team to tank? That makes no sense. Baseball needs more good teams, not fewer.
Because that’s what San Diego sports teams do they tank and always have.
No one should judge Preller on this. GMs (or POBO, or whatever his title is) aren’t allowed to make these kinds of decisions.
If not for Preller, this deal wouldn’t have been possible. I shouldn’t have to explain why.
Ok? What does that have to do with anything I said?
Everything.
Being this extension has been in works. And it makes sense that Management and owners talk to each other. And Preller just got an extension. I would guess that both Preller and Ownership were in favor of this.
Love the Pads Retro uniforms. A lot of you in here are jealous. And it shows. The owner of your team doesn’t spend and you hate where you live. I’m sure if you ask any pro scout, Manager and players Tatis is worth the $$. And as a few have pointed out the contract is a good deal for the player and the team. It’s a risk for the player and the team. Tatis with his skill set could probably make a lot more .had he agreed to a shorter deal.
Health permitting, this is a great extension for the Padres. I wouldn’t question his talents, even thou a small sample size, he’ll be fine. They’ll save on the back side of this for sure. After his 6 years service time, he’d make 30+m per. Good luck and keep the health Tatis.
He only has 550 career at bats. Big gamble, but I’d bet on this guy.
Every team would love to have this guy and he looks like a can’t miss super star. But that’s a ton of money to guarantee the guy, especially considering how little he has in terms of proven track record. This could be great for SD or terrible for SD. Time will tell. Great for Tatis no matter what happens. Usually both sides except some risk and all risk falls on one side in this pact
Tatis risk is he lost 15 million a year more if he stays healthy for 4 more years.
It’s an interesting deal and I think it will end up working out well for the Padres. I think the deal can be broken down like this: the Padres bought out 4 years of arbitration for $40 million (which is about what Tatis would have received over those years) and then signed him to a ten year extension for the exact 10 years/$300 million they gave Machado. If Tatis continues to be the player he is now, he certainly would have topped that $30 million AAV after 2024, but he now is guaranteed that figure even if he is injured or underperforms. It’s quite risky for the Padres due to that, of course, but I think Tatis is enough of a talent to make it work. I don’t think he stays at short for the whole contract (I’d be surprised if he is still at short at 30) and I think he’ll lose a lot of athleticism and speed, but I think he’ll gain even more power. I like it.
lebowskiachiever, Tatis has the kind of flair and charisma that can be marketed worldwide. I’ve longed for the day when MLB can market itself the way the NBA has. Tatis could be vital in getting that done in terms of TV and so much more. If that happens, this contract will. be a bargain. As it stands, MLB needs to consider ways to widen its appeal. The lengthy schedule should actually be seen as a huge positive. You can turn on the TV any day of the week and watch Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr.s, and numerous other charismatic players. Must-see-TV and must-own-jerseys. This is kind of what Trevor Bauer has been preaching: make baseball more appealing to a new generation of fans. MLB needs to do what the NBA did with David Stern: hire a commissioner who works for the owners but who also cares about the players and their individual brands. Do that and the sport will grow like crazy.
All true Cey , Padres fans should be stoked – The Flair and charisma is worth $ potentially
The Counter- 575 abs, Same deal can probably be struck 365 days from now with better intel upon ink
Love the ink, but Im of a Vanilla GM mind-state (reduce risk) and ida waited the 365….that still shouldn’t stop any Padre fans from popping bottles tonight tho if they so please
Look forward to the rivalry for many years to come , good competition only makes a ninja sharpen his blade; Spring is in the air
I love Tatis and my Padres but, I would have liked to see a full year of production and relative health before pulling the trigger. Gyorko’s extension still makes me cringe and that was only 31/5
Pulled the trigger too soon like a virgin on prom night, if he becomes a perennial mvp candidate at 28-32 if there are no opt outs when the top players are making $50-$60m a year I can see a hold out in st because “I’m not being fairly compensated”
Hmm yea didn’t even think of that angle; he’s so good hes miserable getting 24 mill and it becomes a problem
Risk if he underperforms and possibly if he reaches optimal top 5 player in the game. I’m not going to speculate on Tatis per se but there sure have been many athletes in all sports that cause big problems when they think they are underpaid
Oddly I’ve yet to hear one complain when having a severely underwater contract
Good for the kid, agent, marketing team, etc etc for getting this much dough on 575 career abs tho !! Amazing work
Tatis Jr locked up and a lovely 70 degree day. Suck it losers.
The only ‘loser’ is the guy insecure enough to come on MLBTR just to insult other people. That’s, frankly, someone to pity.
It was a 70 degree day and the Dodgers are the defending WS champs. Suck it p4dr35.
I am sure other people on here are enjoying there just as good or better players and low taxes and they can afford to live or travel to wherever they like.
Good deal for the padres but he could have made so much more money. Also it’s doesn’t feel like it but he still has never played a full season. It looks like he’s gonna be a superstar but you can’t help but wonder if he has any durability issues or if it was more of a mirage then a true look at how he’ll play consistently. Probably not a mirage but crazier things have happened. I’m sure all the SD fan boys will promptly call me an idiot and proclaim the padres world champs. Can’t wait for that.
Wonder if he has opt outs?
If the Padres are taking on this kind of risk, for their sake, I certainly hope not
No mention of any opt-outs so far. Just a full no-trade clause
Stoked my kids will grow up watching Tatis JR a Padre!
Folks, there are differences between re-sign, resign, and an extension. You resign from your job (quit); You re-sign with a team you played with previously; You extend a contract that is still active.
Feel free to let the insults fly, but my intentions are honorable.
Thank you, have a good night.
This has probably been in the works since they added Tatis to the opening day roster in 2019. We all knew they were going to extend him we just didn’t know for how long or how much. It’s not a terrible deal for the fact that he is still very young and has a chance to be something special. Padres fans have been long suffering through several rebuilds so its good that they know they have a star player who is not leaving anytime soon. This deal also works for the Padres as I’ll bet Tatis jerseys are in the top five in sales over the next several years.
Lets be honest, he may be the most exciting young player the Padres have had since Dave Winfield
You didn’t “know” that they were going to extend anybody!
Actually stories of the Padres working on extending Tatis started surfacing last october. So you can go back to cherry picking whatever stats you don’t like out of the record books
Yeah, stories surface of teams working on extending players that they don’t end up extending all the time. The point is you didn’t KNOW that they would extend him.
Rsox
Young Tony Gwynn (HOF) played in mid 80s after Winfield left Padres.
And there was Adrian Gonzalez in 2006 to 2010.
Give me another half season of excellence and Tatis will pass Gonzalez in my book.
Gonzalez had already Played parts of two seasons with the Rangers when the Padres got him. Gwynn was a great player and i do not discount what he did on the field. More my point was the Padres have a history of developing really good players–for everyone else. It’s nice they finally get to keep one for themselves
“Tatis would have reached arbitration eligibility after the 2022 season, so he was still a full campaign away from securing serious earnings.”
Wouldn’t this be 2 full campaigns? I think you probably mean he’d be arbitration eligible for the 2022 season?
Wow, just…….wow.
Good luck with that, San Diego.
Congrats Padres fans. You have ownership and management that is going to try and win a World Series. While other teams sit on their hands and find a way to say no, your guys are saying yes and are not scared.
Padre for life. I wish him luck. He’s got all the talent in the world
What a tremendous waste. They will regret this.
What a ridiculous take. Tremendous waste? By what metric?
He’ll likely wait for a month or two so he doesn’t forfeit his stimulus check.
Curious move by the Padres considering he’s played the equivalent of one season. Why not wait a few years? Kind of a head scratcher.
The longer he plays, the higher the contract goes.
Paranoia in Padres front office. Fear of losing him they overly conceded to his requests. Instead of negotiating in a position of power given that he’s years away from free agency and a couple from arbitration, they caved to fully control him. He’s a great player so far but there are a lot of players in the past that have dropped off in production after a smaller sample size. Padres did not need to take a gamble so early and so long in contract term.
Congrats to both Tatis and the Padres. As a Sox fan, it bugs me that upon getting traded he grew half a foot and gained 55 pounds of muscle, but whatever – he’s a beast and he’s earned his payday. hope his little brother has a no-trade clause.
How about… we give you Eric Hosmer for Elijah Tatis.
i guess we would have to throw in abreu to free up a spot in the lineup…
Incredible
As a non Padres fan… the Padres are easily becoming one of the most fun teams to watch. They seem to be in an “all-in” mode and just keep adding quality players to their core… and now locking up one of their young superstars for the foreseeable (And then some) future. They should be a REALLY fun team to watch next season, and beyond. Whether they can overtake the Dodgers or not remains to be seen… but if you were a Padres fan… I imagine you’d be pretty excited about the upcoming season… and the foreseeable future as well!
it probably won’t work out (few do), but Tatis is a “happening”. If MLB had any brains (I’m more and more convinced daily they don’t), they’d market the heck out of Tatis, Lindor, Soto et al. They’re all a PR guy’s (gal’s) dream.
Look I know Trout would rather be at an Eagles game, and Mookie would rather be bowling. But those three are great for the game. And I mean great, not only for the stats (boring stuff) but for their personalities.
But wait, all the “experts” told us that the Padres blew it by starting his service clock early. He was certainly going to be a free agent and be on another team as soon as possible. Yeah, as usual, you aren’t an expert and you’re just blabbering to make yourself feel important.
Dumpster diving
I don’t even care about the Tatis extension, I’m just stoked to see a Jeff Todd article.
But, can he pitch?
Very smart not for just resigning him, but now the pressure is on the Dodgers. You think Bellinger doesn’t see a pre arb player making more than him? I can guarantee his agent is on the phone right now with the Dodgers
Id say it has zero barring on the Dodgers tbh. It’s important to note that Seager , Urias, Bellinger are all repped by Boras, who operates on the complete end of the spectrum with a few exceptions. Add to that the Dodgers don’t operate in that manner, because they don’t have to. I think the way they view it, especially as a super two, is through the lense of money left on the table.
With that said, as a Dodgers fan I’m really glad to see the Padres making moves like this. This is extremely good for the game. F the economic structure that is archaic beyond belief.
It’s going to be fun coming back to this thread in a couple of years (well, more like a decade), that’s for sure.
Personally, I like the idea and the approach, but don’t love the execution. For a team to take on that level of unprecented risk, I would want more of a discount. Simple as that. Get me down to 300mil and we can talk.
Nonetheless, hope it works out for the Padres and it’s cool to see this type of deal go down regardless, especially as a fan of early-arbitration extensions.
I have never in my almost 60 years of life (two weeks), been closer to being done with the game that I love, than at this moment.
Happy almost birthday!
Titanic
Why? We all know teachers and nurses are underpaid. Sports stars and movie stars are overpaid. The free market is not perfect when it comes to tv revenue. But Tatis makes the game fun to watch and I can only hope that he donates some of that money to those less fortunate.
I feel ya. It’s awful that a team locked up it’s franchise player so he could play his entire career with them.
He’s very good and will play maybe 4 years of this contract in San Diego
Brilliant deal by Padres. Preller is performing at a top 5 level this offseason.
Mistake. They could have offered this in two years, and he probably still would have taken it. They could have offered $300M and he probably still would have taken it.
14 years lmao!
watch him blow his legs out in 2 years
Right, cause that happens all the time in baseball.
Very high risk deal.
Once again trying to one up the Dodgers
Dawgpound95
Even if true, so what? The Padres have had a low budget team for a long time. I have no problem with their fans getting a fun player to watch for a long time.
This guy is a great ball player…. a game changing superstar…. congratulations to him on the contract
There is a big potential for disaster here.
Exactly. Not to mention if they need to trade him in X amount of years it’s gonna cost alot of cash and top prospects too
1. Fernando is my all-time favorite player . . . Fernando Valenzuela that is.
2. If you could draft any player for the next dozen years, rank the following Trout, Machado, Tatis, Harper, Cole, Stanton, Yelich, Arenado, Betts. I think Tatis might already be in the middle of this pack. Therefore, while the Padres take the risk of injury and aging, he is a very good player who will be the face of their franchise for a long time. I think his floor is Nomar Garciaparra. Suppose he turns out to have similar stats to Alfonso Soriano? Then this contract is probably neither an overpay nor underpay.
3. If Tatis and Machado stay healthy, Padres fans have a lot to look forward to.
4. I would still take Bauer, Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Price and May over Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Paddack, Musgrove and Morejon.
5. Safe bet that barring multiple injuries to stars, the Dodgers, Padres and Braves all win 95 games in 2021.
Next 12 years it’s Tatis or Soto. Trout, Machado, Harper, Cole, Stanton, Yelich, Arenado, Betts aren’t even in my top 10.
Dozen years is too difficult for some of these players- Ill go 8 yrs to make it fairer
Trout
Betts
Cole
Yelich’
Tatis
Harper
Machado
Arenado
Stanton
I feel like Im hedging on Tatis, dont like to hedge really but idk hes tough…could be above Cole/Yeli or below Harper/Machado or could take a big tumble off the list entirely
Cap & Crunch
Twelve years is fair to do.
Changing it to eight makes Trout and Betts a no-brainer for top two. Twelve years take into account the advantage being younger.
I expected most of us to rate Stanton, Harper and Arenado below Tatis.
That’s why the deal is not necessarily great or bad. It is a fair deal. Risky due to injuries and small sample size, but Tatis is undoubtably special.
Just think most these dudes wont be under heavy contract for 12 years and some wont even play that many so its a really hard number – Yelich and Cole would take a big drop with those extra 4 years
Soto Acuna Lindor Seager Buehler Bieber and others would rank above a lot of the guys listed if we are going 12 years but maybe your just listing off big contracts inked currently?? If so yea the models going to lean Tatis no matter what due to age and isnt a real fair predictor to the crowd given the timeline
@ Cap Crunch
This is purely just fun speculation of course. but IMO over next 8 years Soto has to be in the top 5. And Acuna Jr? He’s easily top 10. Stanton not in my top 50 we’ve seen his peak. .DeGrom should be ahead of Cole but both are 30ish now so next 8 years maybe it’s Bieber as best SP. We’ll see.
Most def Brew…I was only using the names in his first post-
I (think) its only guys with huge contracts inked already list …
Seems like hes trying to illustrate Tatis in the most positive light by moving the goalposts out to 12 years
Degrom is actually a little older than ya might think , hes best in biz right now but already 33 (got started later) (seems younger) – Cant see him pitching at 41 with the vigor rate at which he pitches
Soto,. He’s the most valuable right now.
Soto, Acuba ,tatis would be top 3 .
Acuna’s absurd contract he signed completely blows this argument apart. Of course Acuna’s contract is the best. Upside for signing a long term contract right now I got Soto. He’s a bat that will hit forever as long as he stays healthy.
Conservatively, considering his talent level, his position and his age, he probably left $200M+ on the table.
This seems like it’ll blow up in one of their faces. Also we don’t know the structure yet. Whether it’s $23.5715M a season every season for 14 years, or it’s gonna rise and then fall, or whatever, eventually this is gonna get ugly for one side.
Either Tatis is gonna come to resent the paltry contract he’s stuck with as salaries rise, or the Padres and whomever else he may eventually get traded to to offload the contract, will be stuck with an overpriced declining player.
I think this was a mistake. On paper 14 years/$340M sounds great. $10M upfront upon signing is life changing.
But as he gets older, he’s gonna grow accustomed to the money and see other similar or less valuable guys make larger amounts than him and wonder what he missed out on.
Or the Padres will be on the hook for nearly a decade for a player who dropped off and didn’t maintain his initial sky high value.
He’d have to really level off in his WAR and his skill sets as other similar players became much more expensive for this to look good at the halfway point and beyond.
I hear all those points and they are all valid but maybe also theres a unique chance Padres fall off in 5 years and they can trade him for a pretty big haul
I have no problem with the overall price, I just think the risk came a year or two too early
If he’s overpriced and declining they won’t be able to trade him.
AT 27 yrs old Record Books?
27 years old with….what 280m or so attached to him?
Age doesn’t matter, price and production do. In the scenario TrillionaireTeamOperator defined, Tatis is “overpriced and declining.” In that scenario, trading for him makes no sense for another team.
Remember, folks. Your favorite team can do what the Padres are doing. Or do you prefer to believe the lie that their poor?
Yep, no more excuses for the Reds, Pirates, and other skinflint franchises. Spend money to make money. Dare to be great. The Padres are all-=in and I’m all for it, even though a Dodger fan isn’t supposed to be. Those rivalry games are going to special for a long time.
Cey Hey.
Agreed. Dodgers-Padres could become what Yankees-Red Sox used to be.
Cin is a smaller market than SD.
That their what is poor?
he’s so good. but how long?
Everyone is an expert now, I can bet that before the front office made this decision they took all of those things into consideration, and in their mind the potential benefits of the deal are worth the risk, that’s why we are having fun here and they are the ones making the toughs decisions.
All teams do this. So are you saying all contracts are good? Ridiculous thought process. Everyone keeps saying insurance but insurance doesn’t protect you from CBT. These type of deals potentially sets you back for a long time. Preller is pushing it but certainly massively increasing the risk profile.
That’s insane. With current events, I’d be surprised if we haven’t been raptured well before his contract ends.
9lives
If so, then there is no loss (or benefit) anyway.
If he stays healthy it will be a bargain towards the middle years and maybe at the end too
Final thoughts. Only ?s are would you rather pay right now 270 ish million for his mid 20s to mid 30s seasons? Or let him play some more and if people haven’t got in his head to wait for free agency you could sign him and pay more. 400 and some million for his mid 20s to late 30s seasons? Or enjoy him for 4 more years for 60 or 70 million and enjoy the comp pick if it is still around or try and outbid other teams. I like the gamble of taking care of him now. Though not remotely close to as much as the braves acuna.
That just decimated their payroll lol. Hopefully they’re little build up here pays off with a championship
Do teams use insurance for long term contracts anymore?
Insurance companies still offer insurance. I don’t know if and how many teams use it. Figure it is still being used. At least on the players prime years.
Dont you kinda have to add that into the player cost tho? Obv not AAV wise and against the CBT but its still capital….may end up costing a couple scouts?, Water heater for Dorn?
Still worth it with something as big as this but when paying sticker in arb years Id hate to pay hidden fees as well
His camp did a great job is all I’ll say
Absolutely. Just like any business. Factor in everything, every cost. He is young and not a pitcher so has that going for him.
His camp did amazing.
One player doesn’t win the WS. The Cubs were suppose to have a dynasty. That lasted 1 year with 3 NLCS appearances. Let’s take it one season at a time.
idc what anyone says. this is a steal from the Padres perspective. salaries are going up… even the shortstops are gonna start hitting $30MM+. And you’re getting one of the best ones for $24MM??? For a decade and a half???? Things would have to go very wrong with his legs for this to blow up in the Padres face.
yes, its a steal if Tatis continues on his current trajectory and the economy of baseball remains strong-
but if he has injury problems, or simply struggles as 22 year old and beyond mentally to stay disciplined and hungry with a guaranteed 340 mil in his pocket, then its not a steal.
if you look at Arod at that age, giving a contract like this would have been a steal.
if you look at Ruben Sierras numbers at age 22-23 when i was gathering his baseball cards thinking he was a future hall of famer, you’d be kicking yourself for 10 years.
Yes! I remember growing up and putting my Don Mattingly baseball cards in plastic sleeves because I thought he was going on a HOF trajectory. Ruben Sierra was great for 4-5 years but flamed out. Dale Murphy and Dwight Golden too. A lot can happen. I can understand a big long term extension if they had just won the World Series but come on, this is just not smart.
well preller wont probably be there still if/when it goes bad, and its not his money, so if ownership signed off on it, thats the owners money, and i dont think he’ll be filing for bankruptcy, so maybe we should leave it lack that and not worry about it.
idc what anyone says. this is a steal from the Padres perspective. salaries are going up… even the shortstops are gonna start hitting $30MM+. And you’re getting one of the best ones for $24MM??? For a decade and a half???? Things would have to go very wrong with his legs for this to blow up in the Padres face.
Good take Tommy, good take meh boh…
I understand the desire to lock him up and most likely he will continue to perform but man that’s a lot of risk to take on. Did the Padres have to go 14 years? Who negotiated this contract? Was it one sided? Too much focus on AAV and not enough on term. If he gets hurt? If his performance drops? If he has to switch positions his value drops. If he has to switch positions and performance drops that becomes a silly contract real fast. If I’m the club’s risk manager I’m probably getting a heart attack from the flurry of moves and length of money given out.
There are no victims in MLB.
It’s the same people that laughed at Padres fans for their ownership not spending money that are now claiming they should be ashamed their ownership is overspending.
“…the good will surely helped the small-market Pads convince Tatis to commit to the organization instead of holding out for a potential bonanza in free agency.”
In my world, $340 million pretty much qualifies as a bonanza in itself. What more could he have held out for — a 51% ownership stake?
That does seem like quite an assumption by the writer.
Everybody praising this deal is either emotionally attached or clueless to how much money that is. This might be the dumbest deal ever.
To clear up a couple things –
1. yes, of course, this deal will be insured. If he gets injured and can’t perform- an insurance policy will pay the remainder of contract. Which will make that policy one of the largest of its kind.
2. It’s not 24 a year as no one has ever got money like that pre-arb. They gave him the 10 mil so he’d be rich getting through the next couple years of not making much. It’ll level out last couple years of arb and prob stay that way til he’s 35 or possibly be reduce last couple years.
3. This is the beginning of the end of preller. GMs create value by identifying and developing talent. Not by spending more money 3 years than george Steinbrenner spent in his life !
Got 1 more for ya ! Braves fans – start shopping Acuna today as he will never be a brave once arbitration is up !
acuna is signed through 2028, right?
Wow! His agent should be drug out in front of the players union and stoned. That’s the worst contract in baseball.
5 mil in 21, 15 in 22 then 17 mil a season til he’s 30. SHAME on the Braves for taking advantage like that!
So the Braves were smart for extending Acuna and the Padres were stupid for extending Tatis?
The Braves were definitely smart for extending Acuña to those terms if they could get them.
Idk if I’d call the Padres stupid for extending Tatis, even at this price, because he’s probably good enough to be worth it. I do question their process however. They swatted the free year of control to the ground, which in theory should have made Tatis play nice when it came to talk contract and then they still had to pay him 2.35x as much as what the previous record holder for pre-arb extensions got.
Never mind Preller. I can’t believe Padres’ ownership OK’ed this.
bot
Braves fans – start shopping Acuna today as he will never be a brave once arbitration is up !
===================================================================
So the point you are making, besides the fact that Acuna is signed, is that the SDP are stupid for extending their best player. And that the Braves fans should shop Acuna because the Braves weren’t smart enough to extend their best player?
Sorry, but besides being wrong, this also sounds illogical.
No. Had no clue Acuna was extended til after first post. Smart, sure. More like abusive though. Acuna is the most underpaid athlete in professional sports. His agent should be bared from mlb by players union
The player doesn’t work for his agent. The agent works for his players. Acuña signing that extension was his fault and his fault ONLY.
How would Padres fans have felt about inking Kris Bryant to a 14 year contract? Tatis’ numbers through his first 600+ appearances are slightly better, but pretty close to Bryant’s.
That should be plate appearances
Good for Tatis Jr. but bad for the Padres. It’s too soon to sign this kid to a monster, long term extension when: he hasn’t even played a full season, he isn’t anywhere near free agency, and the Padres have made other moves but have won nothing so there is NO DYNASTY. Preller had brought in a bunch of high-priced, star veterans in the past like Shields and Kimbrel and nothing happened. Hopefully, Tatis Jr. develops, plays regularly and keeps producing at a high level. It would be a shame if he gets injured or the league figures him out and he can’t make adjustments.
Bingo
Does this put SD anywhere near the luxury tax?
As a Blue Jays fan this scares the crap out of me. Rogers has spent a bit of money this year but if all our young players demand contracts like this, we’re screwed.
Wow. I’m not hating on the player or the fact that a small market team is shelling out some serious cheddar, but this deal is scary, especially considering Tatis is lining up in the infield next to another $300mil deal.
I think of guys like Sanchez bursting on to the scene and crushing everything thrown at him his first 2 years develop into a potential non tender this off-season.
Man, I’m a fan on Tatis and believe he is going to be a stud but $340mil for someone who hasn’t played 162 yet in their career. Wow, just wow.
At the end of the day if the money doesn’t matter to the one paying it it shouldn’t matter to anyone here.All that ultimately matters is that Tatis will be a Padre for life.If that ends up a good thing or a bad thing is yet to be determined….it’s as they say,Why they play the games.
This sounds like what Rockies fans said in defense of the Arenado extension
Once the Padres GM is fired, tatis will be on the trade market. I say by his age 25 year.
Good for Tatis. Time will tell. Wondering how the Padres plan on paying for these guys when they can’t even draw enough fans on a Regular basis. Maybe if they played the Dodgers every home game they could because there would be more Dodger fans at Petco then Padres fans.
I’m all for the players getting whatever they can, it is after all whatever the market can bear. At some point though, the possibility that ticket prices will be out of the reach for some folks, might be of concern. Just a question, I wonder how teams have historically performed after shelling out that much on a single player.
Over 13 years the economics of the game will change. The team is betting that tv money will rise – it won’t as people give up cable – and fan interest will increase – trends show baseball plays to an aging population as young fans look to the social media fame nba and nfl players obtain. Not so much in baseball. It is hard to see how this is a win for the Padres.
Ticket prices are already out of most people’s range. Tix, food, parking… outrageo
He needs to buy Shields a new car as a Thank you gift.
Deals like these rarely result in titles and more times than not end in tears with fans counting down the days until .a trade clears the crippling contract or the player – Chris Davis, Barry Zito, Eric Hosmer – pick your bad contract – expires. in a couple of years this modern day Alex rodriguez will be on the move. Really a silly sign.
True but this Pads team is good. Overrated IMO but still good. I think you sign big contracts after they prove something like Soto who has won a WS already. Or you sign them knowing that they have lead the team deep in playoffs
Or you sign them if it’s team friendly…for the amount of risk the Padres are taking on in this K, the dollar amount seems high.
That’s kind of a 0-sum prospect. If you wait, you have more certainty about how good they are. If they aren’t that good, you saved money. If they are that good, it’ll cost you money.
Assuming he neither gets better, nor worse, over the next four years, maybe he makes $50M. Meaning that the Padres would now have a $290M/10 contract on him. If they had to sign a new contract in four years, I’d guess $400M/12 (accounting for inflation), would be SD’s opening bid.
A secondary consideration is that the next CBA is likely to be more generous than the current version.
That contract will absolutely outlive Tatis’ legs while playing SS…