Feb. 4: The option on the deal is mutual, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune indicates. If the Twins decline the $5.5MM option, they’ll owe Colome a $1.25MM buyout. If the Twins pick up the option but Colome declines in favor of free agency, he won’t receive any buyout.
Feb. 3: The Twins are signing free-agent reliever Alex Colome to a one-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The contract includes a $5MM salary for 2021 and an option. In all, it’s a $6.25MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
The Twins were mentioned as suitors for Colome earlier Wednesday, so it isn’t surprising they’re bringing in the former Ray, Mariner and White Sox. The 32-year-old right-hander could now be the closer for Minnesota, having saved 138 games in the bigs. He converted 12 of 13 saves with the division-rival White Sox last year.
Colome, who averages 94 mph-plus on his fastball, has saved nearly 86 percent of chances in his career. At times, though, his strikeout numbers have fallen short. Last season, for instance, he ranked 126th out of 141 relievers with at least 20 innings in strikeout percentage (17.8). Colome did, however, finish better than average in walk and groundball rates (9.2 percent and 52.4 percent, respectively). He was also a Statcast darling who ranked above the vast majority of hurlers in several of its important categories.
The Twins’ bullpen checked in third in the majors in fWAR in 2020, though it has since lost Trevor May to the Mets in free agency, while Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo – who combined for 43 frames – remain available. The addition of Colome should help plug those holes for Minnesota.
A 0.81 ERA versus a 4.26 xFIP.
Big yikes.
Combine that with a 0.00 HR/9 and an 86% LOB…
Hopefully the Twins didn’t give up a lot of money.
Edit: 6M isn’t too bad. I was nervous they’d give him 2-3 years based on his 2020 numbers.
Some more concerning numbers for Colome:
His xFIP is raised by a putrid 2.00 K/BB ratio. It’s among the worst of any reliever getting save opportunities in 2020.
Getting a .200 BABIP while rarely striking anyone out and not giving up a single home run really boils down to one thing: a whole lot of luck.
If you’re a Twins fan, I wouldn’t be super optimistic about any of this.
his FIP has always been significantly higher then his ERA. eventually you cant just say he’s lucky and you have to say the metrics dont mean anything when looking at that player.
Jaso to be fair you’re never optimistic. Can we only look at 20 innings of a shortened 2020 season or the 400 other MLB innings? Some relievers out preform their peripherals year after year, but ok all luck. Great take
His Hr/9 has always been super low; very important for late inn Rps
He gets a ton of groundballs, that inf defense should be slid in Minny
Yes he was lucky to have a 0.81 era,- The Twins arent paying for that tho
This is one of the best deals all offseason Imo so far
Getting a sub-1 ERA while rarely striking anyone out (he only struck out 18% of the batters he faced), and not giving up a single home run (without a huge spike in GB%) is a lot of luck.
“He gets a ton of ground balls”
From 2018-2020, Colome ranks 50th amongst qualified relievers in GB%. I’m not sure the numbers back up the take.
So yea thats top 20% in league …..id say that qualifies as a groundball pitcher
the numbers would suggest he’s extremely lucky almost every year. that makes no sense.
50th in terms of qualified relievers. There were just 141 qualified relievers from 2018-2020. That’s about 2/3 of the available RP spots among MLB teams, and about a 10% of all the relievers who pitched during that time.
In other words, he’s middle of the road.
His ranking is beside the point. From 2018-2020, Colome’s GB% was under 50%. He was more likely to give up a fly ball than a ground ball…
He’s never pitched a .200 BABIP season. Or 86% LOB. And had one of the lowest K/9 rates in his career.
Everything he did in 2020 suggested he was extremely lucky.
its not 2020. every year the metrics have said he is lucky. in a one year sample that is a fair thing to assume, but if the same guy is supposedly always lucky you have to wonder if the metrics are giving him tbe credit he deserves.
The numbers aren’t real math capable of predictive models. Ultimately they just guide educated guesses that keep improving as we further develop the field. Wins above replacement is a hilariously ridiculous grasp at reducing a massively complex concept to a single number.
Based on Colome’s performance over the past 3 years a 6 million 1 year guarantee with an option sounds like a steal. I’d almost prefer to see him as a setup man/groundball specialist that can be brought in earlier to deal with runners already on base.
DarkSide, no one, not even myself, is arguing that Colome was lucky in 2019 or prior. If you wish to suggest he was lucky prior to 2020, go for it. But my point was that 2020 was one of almost pure luck for Colome.
Again, he carried a comically low ERA while barely striking anyone out, not giving up a single home run over 90 batters faced, and an unsustainably low BABIP. There’s no other word to describe what he did in 2020 besides a lot of luck.
If Colome can figure out a way to sustain those numbers in 2021, I’ll gladly eat my words. But I’d probably wager that the Orioles win the World Series in 2021 before I make that bet.
You don’t ask a guy with a 44% ground ball rate to be a “ground ball specialist”… just saying.
& some pitchers underperform their peripherals. Michael Pineda, for example.
When a guy who has had a career long ability to beat his projections, every season fans predict a regression. Going to be right some time.
The opposite happens, too.
When a pitcher has failed to perform up to his peripherals folks are calling for that guy’s breakout every year.
Heaven forbid it be a whole lot of skill! That would stymie your theoretical predictors. Of course, just ignore that the 4.26 xfip was so useless in predicting the 0.81 ERA. I’m not saying there is no place for evaluators. I’m just saying actual results holds at least as much weight, if not more.
“More than you imagine Optimus Prime”
He consistently outperforms his advanced stats. I’m sure it’s safe to say at this point that he is one of the few players where you can throw them out.
He’s going to outperform his xFIP, no doubt. But season-over-season, he’s not going to be anywhere near his 0.81 ERA. Probably closer to 3.00.
And there are many other stats, like I posted (.200 BABIP, 0.00 HR/9, 86% LOB, 2.00 K/BB) that don’t look all that great for an outlook on Colome.
How far will Colome regress? We don’t know. But there’s gonna be some regression and it’ll be pretty disappointing.
Ya I guess but at 6.5 million for one year, I’d be more than happy if he regressed to a 3.00 ERA pitcher. I wasn’t suggesting he’s a sub 1 ERA pitcher if it came off that way.
Nope ! They get a 3 era (your words) on a 1/6.25 they will be thru the moon
Regression begins an argument it does’nt end it like the people who use it always try and elude too
Your also using the silliest past year to ever try and paint a picture of a player in Mlb history
Colome probably can’t sustain a 0.8 ERA, but the Twins aren’t paying for a 0.8 ERA. They are paying him $5 million this year hoping that he can be an above-average closer, like he has been able to do every year in his career. This is a good signing.
dan55, to be fair, it’s not egregious by any means. The Twins can afford to take a 6M gamble.
But if they don’t supplement this signing with another late reliever, I’m not sure this’ll end well for them. Just my prediction.
Not disagreeing with anyone in particular, but Colome is one of those cases where those of us who love sabermetrics need to take the time and look at his history. His entire career, his ERA has outperformed his FIP, xFIP and SIERRA with the exception of 2016. That should mean something to us.
Jaso since becoming a full time reliever in 2016 Colome leads ALL MLB right handed relievers in win probability added and is 2nd in ERA. For a stats guy you don’t know many.
WPA doesn’t eliminate things like “luck”… in fact, someone who got really lucky will also have a high WPA.
So the WPA argument doesn’t dismantle the “luck” argument.
Side note: if you want to be arrogant, perhaps start by ensuring you’re correct first.
He does know them Twins333, hes just only using the ones that support his case-
Its the dirty little game of cheery-picking stats.
As you noticed initially Jaso used xFIP bc its way worse than his FIP (which most people use) which is worse than his era which is sub 3 over 8 seasons. Nice post tho 333, to think someone would be against that at 6 and a qrter is an odd sword……
No, I use xFIP because it’s fairly more robust than FIP. I’m consistent on using xFIP as a stat for this reason.
It’s not controversial, in any way, to say that someone with Colome’s statline would be an obvious regression candidate. In fact, I’d argue most Twins fans wouldn’t give two you-know-whats if I said this about someone their team didn’t just sign.
Colome isn’t an elite reliever. And I think the Twins overpaid, slightly, for him. That’s just my opinion.
Go take a couple of breaths. You’ll need them watching him pitch, and REALLY need them while watching the Twins vie for a Wild Card spot.
And I wouldn’t take “cheery-picking” arguments from a guy who thinks a dude with a sub-50% groundball rate makes him a groundball pitcher.
That’s literally the definition of “cheery-picking”.
What would people say about Greg Maddux’s K/9 these days? It’s a highly overrated stat in my opinion, even for relievers. I believe Colome only allowed 1 barreled ball all season last year which tells me his pitches have ridiculous movement on them, leading to poor contact and a lot of easy GB & fly outs. This is something he’s done his entire career so it’s a good signing by Minnesota for sure.
It’s far more important for relievers than it is for starters. And Maddux had incredible control and rarely walked batters.
If you look at Maddux’s career numbers, though, there’s a direct correlation between his K/9 dropping and his other numbers, especially his ERA, getting worse.
K/9 isn’t the end-all, be-all, but along with other stats, it can tell a lot.
Did Alex beat you up on the Playground when you were a kid?
No, I’m just smart enough to recognize an obvious regression candidate when I see it.
Sorry that you aren’t. There’s still hope.
Or maybe not.
It’s since 2016. Luck matters in small samples, not over five years.
Yes Jaso you’re so much smarter than everyone else and MLB front offices. A legend in your own mind. Thanks for the laugh narcissists are very entertaining.
I think the contract size shows that front offices are worried abt regression. Doesn’t mean he is a bad pitcher though; can have regression and still be pretty good.
It depends on how much regression he faces.
A reliever with an ERA in the high-3’s, or even mid-4’s isn’t worth 6M a year. And for a team like the Twins, who have to make moves to survive the White Sox’ recent surge, I’m not sure Colome is exactly the risk I want to be taking.
Teams needing solid production typically try to avoid obvious regression candidates, for good reason.
If the Twins add more relievers, great. But I have a feeling this will be their big move there.
Pitchers who tend to strike guys out and that get alot more swinging strikes are always looked alot more favorably when looking at their advanced stats. That is just how alot of advanced stats work, because the odds of a ball that is swung at and missed has no chance of becoming a hit; whereas, any ball that’s put in play it can still stand a chance of becoming a hit. Thays where advanced stats truly hurt pitchers that intentionally pitch to contact..It just is what it is, but that is why you have to be really careful when looking at advanced stats and just saying a pitcher is likely to regress because his ERA and his FIP or his xFIP don’t line up…
Pitchers that pitch to contact, and that indices weak contact at that, they’re typically the guys that will consistently outperform their advanced stats. For example, and this is just off the top of my head, but some guys like Quintana, Teheran, and Colome fit in this category among others..They could have a fantastic season, and end up with a 3.00 ERA, but because of their style of pitching, they will ALWAYS end that same season with probably about an xFIP/FIP somewhere around 4.00 to 4.30
That’s why xFIP, can be extremely misleading, especially when you’re looking at predicting future success or regression. You have to know what kind of pitcher you’re looking at, when you’re trying to predict their future success or lack thereof..For a contact oriented pitcher, and one that primarily relies on changing speeds, location, and the movement of his pitches, there are much better stats that can help you gauge whether he is likely to regress or not moving forward..
Scouts and analysts figured this out quite a bit earlier than us average fans, so they’ve started using more advanced metrics that tend to focus more on these types of pitchers individual pitches. With that being said, they’re looking at his velocity, the overall difference in his fastball/sinker and his change-up/off-speed pitch. They’re looking at his spin rates and the movement of his pitches, and how they’re changing, if at all. They’re looking at his percentage of pitches that are getting hit hard or for line drives, whether he is starting to give up less groundballs, more home runs etc.
I’m not saying that I disagree with you about everything..Typically, when a pitcher has an incredibly high strand rate, often times that is incredibly hard to duplicate that success; however, that stat is also heavily influenced by what situations they’re put in. Therefore, it really just isn’t a good indicator of future success or future regression as a whole..
Also, the scouting game, especially for relief pitchers and relief prospects has strongly shifted towards looking at which pitches does a guy throw that has the highest spin rate, which pitches can he throw that come out at the same release point, yet move in different directions, and they’re focusing more on pitching up in the zone with breaking balls as well to induce weak contact.
It’s all about spin rates and trying to induce weak contact, that’s the name of the game, ESPECIALLY for the Twins!! That’s why we all saw the Twins happily take on Matt Wisler. They studied the spin rate and success he was having with his slider, even though he was only throwing it as if it was his 3rd or 4th best pitch, but they took him and turned Wisler from a SP with about 4 average pitches, to a bullpen weapon primarily ONLY throwing his slider..
It isn’t like scouts and baseball analysts are not using xFIP, LOB%, Swing and miss %, etc., but they’re no longer really using them to make comparisons across the board. They’re focusing PRIMARILY upon a pitcher’s ability to repeat his release point with all his pitches, a pitcher’s individual pitches and their corresponding spin rates, and they’ve really been putting an emphasis on having pitchers focus on their command of their movement. Meaning, they want their pitchers to not only have the same release points on all their pitches, so they’ll all look similar coming out of his hand, but they also want pitchers to be able to deceive batters by spotting pitches, but using pitches that have opposite spins and movement..As in, starting both your 4-seamer and your sinker at the belt, but having your 4-seaker rise up, and having your sinker dive down as both pitches enter a batter’s hitting zone. Having your 2 seamer, your slider, your change-up, your curve all starting on the same planes, all looking alike coming out of your hand, yet spinning and moving in different directions. Ultimately, along with using a maximized separation of speeds, this is what scouts and coaches are saying is the most efficient way to fool hitters inducing alot more weak contact…
This is especially the case now with having so many arms that are coming out of the pen to pitch only an inning or two..
Just figured I’d share, since my buddy of mine is a pitching scout, and we were just having this same conversation the other day. Obviously, he’s able to explain it alot more eloquently and better than I can, but I was just trying to cover the basis of what he discussed…
I’m not even going to try to go into all the mechanics part of it, and how scouts are determining a pitcher’s future success based off their mechanics…There is just WAAAAYYY TOO MUCH, and I honestly would NOT and could NOT do them justice…lol haha
Fortunately, there are no plans to outlaw defense. Who cares how a guy would do if there was nobody behind him?
It’s a steal of a contract.
It is because he pitched to alot of contact, xfip and some other advanced pitching stats largely favor strikeout pitchers…
It’s not luck when you have a consistent run of success. Not a Colome fan myself and glad Jays didn’t sign him but to say the white sox, rays and now twins have made Colome the closer over many other options would lead anyone to believe it’s not luck.
Not…bad.
Colome was a reliever that really stood out to me this offseason. I wonder what the Twins ended up spending. Could be a real nice move.
yea for only 5 million I was hoping the Phils would have picked him up… I thought for sure he was gonna get something like the Trevor May contract 2/15-ish.
Taylor Rogers better start pitching better in the 9th or else this new bullpen arm will take over the role! It’s a quality signing.
I think Taylor benefits from the sign – He got overworked a little at times the last 2 years- I actually like Taylor in more of a Hader role if possible for Min
I like that idea a lot. He was frustrating at times last year. I think putting Rogers out there against a team like the White Sox who murder lefties, is a terrible idea. Let Colome get revenge on his old team next year!
Good signing. Really good signing. The Twins can go get another starter (hopefully Marquez), and then make their WS push.
As my guys on the Mackey and Judd Show state, we need to focus on winning a playoff game before we start talking about a World Series run.
Hey! It’s nice to meet a Podcaster here. Do y’all do radio too?
Anyways, I’ve been thinking of this trade proposal for a few days now, and I was wondering how you- a true Twins fan – would feel about it:
Twins get: German Marquez and Scott Oberg
Rockies get: Larnach, Duran, and Jeffers
Rox would eat the majority of Oberg’s contract.
I’ve heard Twins’ fans say it’d be too much for Marquez, and I’ve heard Rox fans saying it’d be too little for Marquez. I think it’s fair, and here’s why: The splits. Marquez is devastated in Coors, and outside of Coors he puts up Cy Young level numbers.
Your thoughts?
This gives y’all a true 1,2,3 threat in a playoff series, and I think it makes the Twins the best team in the Central.
I’m a big Rockies and Twins fan! I think it’s “fair”, but definitely leans in favor of the Rockies. Jeffers hit well as a rookie catcher and hitting catchers are scarce. I believe Larnach is the real deal. I think a lot of scouts think he’s one of the best minor league hitters out there. His big flaw is lack of athleticism/defense, but he’s raked at every level he’s been at so far. He’s the sticking point for me as a Twins fan.
You’re right that the Twins definitely need quality pitching depth and I’m one of the few people clamoring for their team to sign Bauer, but that ain’t happening. Our offense should be good enough that we can rely on our top three (Maeda, Berrios, and Pineda) to carry us while we throw spaghetti (Happ, Smeltzer, Chalmers, Duran, Dobnak, Balazovic) at the proverbial fridge and see what sticks for #4/5 SP. Definitely wouldn’t sacrifice Larnach.
It’s a 6M gamble, really. The Twins know Colome isn’t a sub-1 ERA guy, but he also frequently outpitches his xFIP.
So, getting a set-up man/closer for 6M who ends up with an ERA in the mid-3’s… is it worth it? Is he going to move the needle against, say, the White Sox who will be really good? I don’t think he will.
They were on the radio, but got booted off I believe during the pandemic.
I don’t know a whole lot on either two of those guys, but I think that’s a bit much. Maybe take Jeffers out?
And replace him with a top 20 sounds better to me.
And I’m not on the M&J Show, lol. I’m just an avid listener.
I’m sorry, I read your comment wrong the first time, that’s what I thought lol. I enjoy radio down here in Austin as well.
If I may, re: trade, Jeffers would be the core coming back to Rox. It would be a great trade for Rox but I dont think MnT would give up Jeffers right now
All good man, no worries! You should check them out. I get you might not want to listen to minnesota sports stuff but they’re super entertaining!
Good to see! Still going to need a couple more arms though.
It’s a good move. Solid addition.
Is the run on relievers starting? Soria and Colome off the board today.
Still a solid group with Greene, Rosenthal, Melancon and more to go.
Hopefully the Angels will add a reliever.
Agreed. I’ve kind of had my eye on Melancon as a possible target. After all Atlanta traded for him while Perry was there. Steady but not sexy, doesn’t give up HR, and likely available fairly cheaply.
Not saying he’s my favorite on the market, just that he checks a lot of boxes and should fit in the budget.
Ive seen Rosenthal blow up too many times for various reasons to go anything more than 1 yr with him –
Id go with Melancon of that group as he could probably supply a great deal of wisdom/exp at min
Probably only room for 1 more small Rp sign…Id assume theyd want to leave some space for the Wal Mart prices at the deadline this year – 15 away today; should save half that for the break….they dont have any send out $ contracts and they wont exceed CBT so its 15 mill for ROS; tough job ahead of them
Cap. As an Angel fan I would just like to add a setup man that is more likely to be effective than not.
Well your in the right thread (Colome) just wrong team ;(
I think with a little luck the Angels can survive the first half in that Div and quite possibly be sitting in first at the break – Nobody else scares me in that Div, literally nobody –
Id be willing to kick the can down the road a little and bring in some real talent (that can be recently viewed) via trade but you gotta save some cash Now – That will likely lead to a lotta fan bashing but its the right move imo
Trust me as a Dodger fan, you start getting 6+ inns from the starters every night, all the sudden those Rp arms are a little more alive when they reach the mound – The staff is more dependable this year, bullpens are fickle, theres great reason to be optimistic- You know Arte will pull a big move at break for the pen if your tied at the break; thats more than most fan bases can say
1. Wasted opportunity by the Angels.
2. They have kicked the “setup man” can down the road for more than a decade and it has always cost them games. Sometimes a lot of games.
It’s been Well over a decade since the Angels setup man and closer ended the season the same as it began. I think only once has the closer remained the same and that closer was worthless and was traded the next year for Loek van Mil.
All true but you have 15 mill more to spend ROS so thats where we are at today –
Next year when you get Alberts 30 cleaned the discussion is different
This year its 15 for ROS and thats really the only parameters we can discuss within
I think theres more bang for the buck at the deadline but agree 1 more (small) add be4 season for the pen is needed – Ida loved this exact deal for yall with Colome as the final measure
Past is the past, Im of the mindset front offices can evolve, different faces come and go, especially with a little help from Albert/Upton coming
Thats the key though. After josh hamilton and pujols albatross contracts arte moreno signs justin upton to a terrible contract. While i love anthony rendon thats another crazy contract that could become another albatross. The Angels are an organization that just cant develop enough of their own guys to compete. I hope Jo Adell is a star for their sake because hes their first legit prospect since trout
All true but evolution isnt linear
We will get a look next year, but I think they shovel all that Upton/AL money into SP/RP this go around if I had to make a bet
Spending huge money on free agents while cutting costs on scouting and player development has been a brutal combination.
Most teams have a couple of homegrown guys in the rotation. We have Canning and maybe Barria with Detmers in the future.
Most teams have a couple of homegrown guys in the bullpen. We have zero.
Most teams have multiple homegrown position player starters, we have Fletcher, Trout, and probably Walsh.
Most teams have some homegrown viable depth pieces like utility guys and fourth outfielders. We have Rengifo and probably Walsh.
You can’t be that top heavy in roster construction. There are simply too many holes to fill and not enough resources to fill them. Ideally Marsh and Adell provide that for a few years so the Pujols/Upton money can be spent on a deep team.
Having Colome, Rodgers, and Duffey will really allow the Twins to shorten ballgames. This will also give Rocco increased flexibility to play the matchup game in the late innings. Minnesota figures to be really tough to beat for any team trailing after 6 innings.
Would have gladly had the White Sox take him back at that price and spend Hendricks money elsewhere.
Good deal for the Twins. He’s not flashy but he gets the job done.
still like hendricks but no reason to let him go at that cost. would’ve been sick bullpen with our other pieces.
That makes one of us. We have better options than Colome that also happen to be pre-arb.
Sox should’ve kept as setup especially for that price. he’ll be missed…
No he won’t lol.
darn that would really fit into the Phillies budget
yup… I wanted him on the Phils too… I still like Keone Kela a lot, probably my favorite guy from the remaining free agents… Hoping the Phils bring him aboard
a headcase but can be had for cheap. wouldnt rely on him as the closer though. I feel Rosenthal is the last reliable CL option left. Colome could have done average at worst as a closer for well less then a premeir CL closts.
RIP, maybe he thought Twins had better chance. Or he was scared when Trea Turner hit a walk-off off of him. Rosenthal would be decent but I see him back with Pads
Twins are a solid organization. Colome is an excellent addition at a fair price. White Sox winning the AL Central not a done deal yet. Twins still right there. Twins are better than Toronto. 6 years for George Springer??
no Toronto is better. Twins lack depth and their starting staff is good but not great. add in several key players are injury prone.
Sox fans are excited to start playing the games, but I guarantee nobody is expecting it to be easy.
wow he’s only 32 years old. For some reason I felt like he’d been around forever and was in his late 30s… anyway seems like a solid signing for the Twins and at a reasonable price. Regardless of the fluctuations in his k rates he’s otherwise seemed to be pretty consistent in everything else and seems to keep getting the job done as a closer regardless of how many strike outs he may be getting.
I was wrong. I thought he’d get $8M. Good deal for the Twins, even though I expect regression from an unreal 2020. Twins fans, get ready for some adventurous 9th innings.
We don’t know what overall budget they’re working with, but I hope this doesn’t preclude them at least talking to SP candidates. If Colomé’s money limits what they can do with starters, then I’d rather see them get Clippard at half-ish the cost, and I might rather see that anyway…
The Twins are hoping to ride “The Horse” all the way into Playoff Town. Whoa Nellie!
This could be a steal for the Twins.
I was fine with the Sox not bringing this guy back, and I now have a good feeling about us facing him regularly. Even when he got the job done it was always stressful and never clean.
I will say that he is one of those closers that you better buy some Pepcid complete in bulk cause boy do you get heartburn watching him come in and pitch. He got the job done but man is it always a roller coaster.
I understand he doesn’t strike out many batters but how can teams passed on him especially at that price.
Very good pitcher. He is not lucky as spreadsheet warriors surmise. What stats don’t tell you is he will not give in to a stud hitter. If they don’t chase a pitchers pitch, he’s very confident to let them draw a walk and will just get the next guy out. It is not due to command. Fans may get nervous, but he’s calm and very effective in closing out games. The flamethrower types are nice, but this guy is all substance.
After seeing the money, I love this signing. People are going to point to advanced metrics, but Colome has always produced numbers like this. He’s been real consistent IMO.
Hi Connor,
Can you fix something on Jon Heyman? When I pressed ‘Jon Heyman of MLB Network’, it gives us the news abouit the Nats signing Gerardo Parra instead of the news about Twins signing Alex Colone. Can you fix that part? Please & thank you.
“The Twins are signing free-agent reliever Alex Colome to a one-year deal, according to ‘Jon Heyman of MLB Network'”.
This is one i was hoping the Red Sox would have done
Cheap Pohlads never sign anyone
Guy looked like a superstar last year
Theres so little risk with this move. If he implodes you lose a little money. If he performs to the level he always has its a bargain.
Colome…is a really consistent Bullpen piece.I know you analytic guys hate him…but the guy gets the job done year in..and year out 5 million is a nice deal for the twins..Especially with all your bullpen pieces from last year gone…
Nice signing for the Twins.
This dude is either lights out, or trash on any given outing. Nowhere in between.
You clearly never watched Colome pitch. He is rarely lights out, but hardly ever trash. But at the end of huge inning, his team almost always gets the win, even if he allowed baserunners.
Fax. Kinda like a poors man Mo just for the cutter part
As long as the Yankees don’t make him poop his pants (Joe Nathan,) he’ll be good
I see a lot of people think this is a bad signing, and I don’t get it. Yes, the underlying numbers show a lot of luck for last year. But he’s pretty freaking cheap, and if he stinks they can move on. If he continues to get the job done late in games like he has for most of his career then the Twins have a bargain. On a cheap 1 yr deal it’s well worth the chance he can keep getting lucky another yr. I do think there’s some guys who are mentally tougher when it matters too, and he seems to be one of them.
Colome is practically keeping his performance afloat off his cutter.
wOBA against his cutter per year
2017: (.218)
2018: (.259)
2019: (.241)
2020: (.199)
What is wOBA? Think OBP but value varies (double worth more then single, etc). Not the best description out there, so for a proper explanation:
m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base…
Source:
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alex-colome-5…
As a White Sox fan I was hoping he would land someplace else. I am familiar with all the advanced metrics all I can say is the Twins signed someone who knows how to get the job done.
Couldn’t have said it any better, Andy51
Until he doesn’t. Playing with fire. Wish him well tho.
Just saying that some of these comments sound kind of like when the Angels signed Julio Teheran last off season. Teheran, like Colome, outperformed what his underlying metrics said and look how that turned out last off season. I get it’s a case-by-case thing, but just pointing out some similariites.
Relievers have been getting paid this offseason. This seems to break that trend. I really like the math and advanced metrics, but they undersell Colome by a lot. And it’s not that difficult to look at it and explain why. SIERA, FIP, xFIP or whatever your flavor all assume that any ball in play isn’t good and hits are random chance once the ball is in play. They are systems weighted in favor of missing bats rather than shattering them. Colome doesn’t miss bats, but he misses barrels. You can’t expect a regression to a .300 BABIP with him. Not after year over year of outperforming it. Twins did really well here to see through the analytics and get an undervalued guy.
How many balls thrown per batter last year? I watched some of the games he appeared in. He wasn’t overpowering anyone. Some of his saves were the 30 pitch variety in one inning. He wasn’t “filthy” as one commenter said, but more like a veteran knowing about pitching away and trying to hit the corners. Looked more like a 40 year old on the mound pitching on an almost empty fuel tank. Sure I’ll admit he’s crafty. I’ll also say his velocity was 90 top without great movement. He wasn’t throwing 94-plus last year. This is the reason for the one year deal. I wouldn’t count in him to be the man but might be a good reliever to use when your closer is unavailable.
The stats do show that he was throwing 94+ last year. He averaged 94.7 on his four seamer. He just only throws it once out of every 3 or 4 pitches. His cutter is 90ish. His job isn’t to overpower guys, it’s to get outs. He does that by throwing a pitch that has enough movement that guys can’t square it up and then sneaking a 4 seamer with more life that looks the same out of his hand. I think there’s a reason he gets the results he gets even if the math can’t fully explain it. Compared to what May and Treinen got, this looks light.
“Not year after year of him outperforming it”
That’s not true, though. At all. His career BABIP is .274. So let’s not pretend that Colome has always been this low-BABIP pitcher (which does exist, BTW).
If you remove his 2019 & 2020 numbers, his BABIP-against is .291. I think that’s irresponsible, so I leave it .274. But that still represents a 74-point differential in season vs, career BABIP, That’s going to be highly targeted as a regression candidate.
Where will his 2021 BABIP and other numbers lie? Most of the models don’t like him. Steamer runs him at a 4.49 ERA, while ZiPS puts him at a 3.65.
Therein lies the variance between the best and worst models among respectable projections. If he pitches a 3.65 ERA, he was overpaid very slightly. If he pitches a 4.49 ERA, that was a waste and they should have targeted less risky relievers.
I know a lot of fans don’t like hearing the guy their team just signed is likely to take a massive step backwards, but Colome out-performed in nearly every possible category in 2020. He might be the #1 regression candidate in all of baseball this year.
If you want to enjoy this, I can’t stop you. But don’t say you weren’t warned.
I do want to enjoy it. I’m not a Twins fan per se. But I like a guy like him. I’m a Jays fan and they got a similar reliever in Kirby Yates this year. Throw 2 pitches that look the same out of the hand and keep hitters off balance. The trouble is that math has a hard time quantifying deception. Don’t forget that mathematicians and physicists are continually finding ways to quantify and explain the game. Before last week, I hadn’t heard the term “seam shifted wake”. Now I have and physicists know it’s a real force, but they don’t yet know how to really quantify or weigh it in terms of pitcher performance.
Predictive models only put out good data if the data going in is good. He will regress to his norms for sure, but I don’t think he’s going to regress to the league average norms that the models use. If .290 BABIP is the assumption as it is with SIERA, he’s only had one year since ’17 when he added the cutter where he was average (one point higher). He outdid that by a fair bit every other year. HR/FB in SIERA’s case is 15.5%. He is at 9% for his career. Can you really assume he’s suddenly going to be a league average guy in that department?
Look, WAR uses the advanced metrics and he’s outproduced Trevor May who got more than twice as much as he did. Treinen got almost 3 times as much. Now, if you are telling me that you see something that suggests he’s going to decline and won’t be able to throw his pitches with the same efficacy, then I’d like to hear that, but just saying that the models that were developed by some smart people say he shouldn’t be as good as he is is not being all that crafty in spotting a regression candidate. It’s obvious who the regression candidates are. But you have to dig a little deeper to understand the models and their limits. Then you can spot the projection busters. How does FIP, xFIP, and SIERA explain Mariano Rivera’s career? Why didn’t he regress? I’m a Blue Jays fan getting to watch Hyun Jin Ryu pitch and it’s a treat. He outdoes his expected stats pretty consistently too. It’s easy to see why even though you can’t really quantify it. I’m worried about decline with him a bit, but not regression.
Thanks for the warning, but I think I’d rather just enjoy a guy who does a job differently than others and outdoes what is expected. A little diversity in baseball is a good thing and makes it more watchable. I don’t go out of my way to watch the Twins, but maybe I will if if I see they have a late inning lead this year. A pitch to contact reliever with Simmons and Buxton behind him sounds entertaining to me.
You can argue where the regression goes. There’s even some disagreement in several of the projection models. I’m fine with disagreeing where that’ll go, as long as you’re able to look at the numbers and agree that there’s virtually no chance he sustains those numbers going forward.
I’m not attempting to be crafty by suggesting Colome will regress. It’s pretty obvious at this point… or at least it should be. But this idea that he “outdoes his expected stats frequently” is a bad argument.
Not only is it lazy, it’s also overstating the problem. A LOT of pitchers outpitch their xFIP. Very, very rarely has anyone outpitched his xFIP by 3 full runs on a sustained basis. Colome has never had another season where he’s outpitched his xFIP by TWO runs. His career ERA is a full run greater than his xFIP.
So yeah, I don’t think Colome is a 4.26 ERA pitcher. And in that way, yes, he’s outpitched his expected stats. But 2020 was more than just slightly outpitching those numbers. Again, he outpitched his xFIP by nearly 3.5 runs last year.
Even for someone who “outpitches his expected stats”, you have to look and agree that there were some seriously outlandish and unsustainable numbers.
And for what it’s worth, the guys who “outpitch their expected stats” are already accounted for in the statistical models. The argument is, frankly, pretty lazy. Regression to the mean is a real statistical event. And it’ll happen to Alex Colome whether you want it to or not.
Sure. I hope you don’t think I believe he’s going to produce 2020 bottom line numbers. But I do think he will continue to be better than the predictive stats and be the ’17 (year he started throwing the cutter) through 2020 guy who quite frankly was a very good player and much sturdier over that time than relievers who outdid him financially in this market. I’m an infant in exploring the advanced predictive stats, but there is a trend that stands out to me and that is that it overly weighs certain factors. Guys like Colome, Mariano Rivera (for a good Colome comp.), Ryu, Hendricks, lots of other pitch to contact or soft tossers very often surprise those systems. You can do it right now. Think of a guy who fits that mould and go look at the real vs. predictive stats. Good chance you picked a guy that has quite frequently outperformed the predictive stats. The people who create the equations acknowledge the limitations of them. The biggest limitation I see is they only incorporate the outcomes as data. They don’t incorporate what the guy actually does on the way to the outcome. They don’t yet quantify all the forces on the ball between his hand and home plate and how that looks in the brain of the batter. It’s once or twice removed from that part, And that part does exist and is real.
There’s also the baseball side of the equation too. The math is only part of it. If he’s fiddling with new grips or mechanics or a mindset shift that will make his cutter less effective, then he might very well fall off a cliff. That’s possible when guys go to a new organization.
Anyway, I’m still curious about it all. Like I said, I notice trends and try to read about why some things don’t seem to lineup. I think Colome fits some of those trends that I’ve noticed, but I’ll defer to you because your belief in the equations is clear and I’m not so sure I fully understand it. I still think that if WAR uses FIP in it’s calculations and he’s been pretty consistently worth a full win or more by that measure, $6m is light compared to May and Treinen
If you are basing your assessment on BABIP, then the White Sox made a horrific deal signing Hendricks, because his BABIP was 315 and 260 over the same span.
Hendricks also blew eight saves to Colome’s 4, and had a worse save percentage.
It’s also why I could care less about deeper advanced metrics with relievers, especially closers.
All that matters at the end of the day is that the pitcher manages to keep the lead at the end of the 9th inning. Number of batters, number of strikeouts – none of that matters for a player who pitches in about 1/3 of games for a single inning.
Fact is, Colome, especially over the past two seasons, has been able to handle the 9th inning effectively, because he can induce double plays or weak contact even when he allows runners to get on base, and can avoid big innings.
It’s not pretty, but it’s effective, and he is a bargain at his price compared to 50+ million for someone who must strike out batters to get the job done.
Maximumvelocity, Hendriks has an unusually high BABIP–.322–so .311 isn’t that bad. .255 might suggest a bit of regression (maybe?) but that’s not a number so out of line that it would concern teams.
I do think there are also some numbers with Hendriks that are a reason to pause, but that also reveals the volatility of relief pitching. There are tons of factors to consider.
And if you give any manager in baseball the following choice of relievers:
A. A guy who relies on striking people out OR
B. A guy who relies on everyone else catching the balls put in play
Every manager picks Option A. All of them.
Now, if you want to argue that the White Sox massively overpaid for Hendriks. I’ll go along with it.
But if you’re saying, “well, paying 20K for a Yugo is better than paying 60K for a Ford F150”, I’m not sure I agree.
From the Mariners experiences Colome is a lot better than Felix de King…the guy was a setup for Eddie Diaz and he did that really well…for the M’s…Colome was fun as a setup guy…
I think that’s a good deal.
Pretty cheap for what he does. Just SAVED the game in the last inning with a lead.
Just gets better for the Twins !
I got Colome La Stella Cruz and DJL as the best signs so far this year
So it seems this will be a one year deal. If he pitches well and gets even a whiff he can make more on the open market he’ll decline. And if the option price seems to steep he’ll get $1.25mm to go away.
Unless it’s middling results of course.
Go talk to the 1990s Braves about how having three HOFers in the rotation still guaranteed nothing in the playoffs.
Funny how no one is comparing Bauer to deGrom, whose career Bauer wished he had