The Blue Jays were one of the more active teams in baseball this offseason. Rumored to be interested in virtually every high-profile player on the free agent or trade markets, Toronto eventually made a handful of key additions, none bigger than George Springer. The former Astros star was followed by Marcus Semien, who rounds out a potentially star-studded infield of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. An outfield of Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernández has the potential to be similarly impressive, at least offensively.
Toronto was also active in adding to the pitching staff, but there’s a lot less certainty in that area. The Jays brought back Robbie Ray and acquired Steven Matz in a trade with the Mets. Those players are coming off down years, though, as are fellow projected rotation members Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling. Only Hyun-jin Ryu looks like a sure bet to provide quality production as a starter.
It’s something of a similar story in the bullpen. Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps bring varying degrees of upside as offseason acquisitions. However, due to either injury or poor performance, none of that trio got good results in 2020 (although in Phelps’ case, that seems to be a product of unsustainably dreadful home run luck). Is that enough to make up for a relief corps that, despite strong performances from Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano, was well below-average by both ERA (4.71) and K% – BB% (10.7 points) in 2020?
Let’s turn to the 2021 projections. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects the Jays for a typical season in the 85-win range. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts system is more bullish, pegging Toronto as an 88-win team. We’ll split the difference: over or under 86.5 wins for the Blue Jays in 2021?
(poll link for app users)
I believe there is a lot of uncertainty in the pitching situation. I just them fighting TB for 2nd place in the al east.
That’s just it though – the Yankees and Rays don’t have very good rotations, either. Pretty similar makeup, actually. The Yankees will be lucky to get 300 innings from Severino, Kluber and Taillon, and the Rays have a combo of young arms and reclamation projects.
I think the top of this division will be tighter between the Yankees and Blue Jays than people think. They’ll definitely outslug some other teams, especially Boston and Baltimore.
I think it’s going to be an absolute scrum, @entelu88. The Yankees, Blue Jay’s, & Ray’s all look like playoffs clubs to me. Hell, even the sox look like they should probably have a winning record.
Going to be a fun summer.
For the record, I think the Yanks finish on top. But I’m not buying the 11 & 12 game differences that projection systems are forecasting. I think it’s much closer than that.
The only club I can see outscoring the Yanks is Toronto. But that’ll be close. Health will probably determine which team puts up the most runs. Those lineups are going to mash. But I favor the Yanks pen significantly & I prefer our ace to theirs, as well.
No doubt the Jay’s are a very good club. I think they are our biggest concern in the AL. No offense to the White Sox – another very good ballclub.
Took the over.
Actually, I see the ChiSox won the Al Pennant. They have some amazing young talent, and the infusion of workhorses like Lance Lynn and Liam Hendriks make them scary-good..
The AL East will be an interesting 3-team dogfight, with all three clubs (NYY, TB, TOR) playing with ~90 wins. the fact that they play each other so much will somewhat deflate their win totals.
Which is a perfectly defensible take.
& I like how you highlighted the strengths of the Sox as opposed to just trying to “prove” your assertion as opposed to focusing on the negative aspects of their competition.
I’m always amazed at how everyone writes off Tampa. They lost 2 pitchers and added like 7 and have been winning under that business model for decades. Tampa won 12% more of their games last year than yanks and blew em out of division! Tampa is surely the fav and reigning champ.
Toronto is good and they have the farm to improve their rotation if they keep stride during first 1/2 – they’ll prob add an ace to sure up rotation. They’ll have to to be taken serious….
Division is wide open !
@bot –
I can’t tell if you actually believe this or if you are just kind of doing a soft troll of Yankee fans.
There are some legitimate reasons that Las Vegas & the various projection systems have the Yanks as the AL favorite.
I’m not claiming that the Yankees have the East on lockdown – or whatever. But they are a very good squad. Ray’s & Jay’s still looking up. Closer than it’s been. By a lot. & – yeah – the Ray’s are going to win their share of games. But “like 7 pitchers” is a downgrade from Snelling & Morton.
Yanks remain the team to beat.
It’s impossible to think the Yankees aren’t the better team on paper and of course vegas agrees with that. But on the other side is recent history. I’m w u- I think it’s all real close in the AL East and Tampa won last year so they are the team to beat.
On a personal level- I don’t hate the yanks any more than any other non yankee fan. But they are not a team to fear like teams of the past. Lots of bad contracts and rotation is way more suspect than in recent years. Now they are loosing flame throwers from their pen like Britton and the guy they let Red Sox get.
Maybe….
Tampa
Toronto
NY
Boston
All 4 teams above 500
Fair enough.
Teams with such weak starting rotation rarely have 80+ wins. I think only way they would go over is if they acquire good starter(s) during the season.
Agreed, without pitching depth I don’t see them as a contender.
Uh, @ryu.
I’ve heard the same thing about the Yankees for years. Combining a prolific offense, a deep ‘pen, & an ace is a proven template for regular season success. Yanks have road that formula to 100 win seasons & deep playoff runs.
Once again, Yanks trying to bullpen & bash their way to a pennant. It works. Especially during the regular season, man.
Also, I’d argue that the Jay’s have a viable ace (pretty big deal) & they’ve actually assembled some remarkable depth in their rotation. Their strating pitching is far from bad.
80 wins?
Man.
I think you are sleeping on them.
Totally agree. Over 162 not having the pitching will show up. I do think they will be an 80-84 win team and be in contention down the stretch.
Ryu’s hatin on ryu’s. Now I’ve seen it all
And yeah that rotation sucks! I thought u were exaggerating but they are putting a ton of stock in Pearson!
If there was ever a team that needed lance Lynn……
Oops, second sentence sb I see them fighting.
I mean what baseball fan can’t root for this team with those names? Beyond the obvious divisional opponents of course… if they all develop into even close to what their namesakes did, wow that’d be so cool!
I don’t think Toronto or just teams out of the country in general should be in an American sports league such as MLB or NBA
The f*** you talking about. 3rd largest market in North America
@PeteRose
Thankfully no one values your opinion.
The same Pete Rose who played on the Montreal Expos?
I don’t think you should be allowed to be a rodeo clown… yet here you are…smh
@PutPeteRoseInTheHall – Good thing Dr. James Naismith (Canadian and inventor of basketball) didn’t have the same [narrow] mindset.
@peterose –
I think MLB should think very strongly about having another team in Canada. They’ve been…problematic for the entire league. It’s become a “29 teams & the Blue Jay’s” situation.
Which I get. But that’s a drag.
I also understand these are very unique circumstances. So I’m hoping it’s a one off.
But I’ve always been a proponent of expanding into Mexico or the Caribbean. If MLB goes overseas I’d look at those places first. Bringing baseball back to Montreal now seems pretty sketchy. & – hell – a lot of us on the board have played in front of more fans than the Expos were drawing.
So there’s that.
Who is this Pete Rose Guy ? Seriously > Basketball invented in Canada, but he says ” shouldn’t be in an American Sports League ” , He needs to check a Map, last I looked Canada was in America and were all American.
@putpete….I guess you missed it when a C-A-N-A-D-I-A-N invented the sport of basketball
It is also disputed that the first baseball game happened in Beachville, Ontario
They have tons of potential, but need pretty much everything to go right for 85+ wins to happen. Zero pitching depth and a weak rotation as is. Injuries would cause major holes. Vlady lost a bunch of weight, which could be a good thing, but is not always the case for power guys like him (mechanics). Springer is very consistent, so shouldn’t be an issue, but Biggio and Bichette have plenty still to prove. Gurriel too. It could happen, but I’d put them between 78-80 wins
Everything would have to go wrong for the jays to be under .500
So that’s what happens a to the Angels every season?
plus a lot of other things
Jays lineup and bullpen is much better than the angels. Heck even our sketchy rotation is at this point.
I agree on the lineup and the bullpen, but I’ll take the Angels rotation over the Jays for sure
Jay’s have Ryu.
Which is why I’d prefer the Blue Jay’s rotation to the Angels’. Nobody on the LAA is really a viable MLB ace.
Ryu is.
Easily could see them winning the AL East. Wild card is my prediction.
Not with that rotation.
The Rays have 1 quality starter and the Yankees rotation after Cole is just as risky.
@amk1920- I have much more faith in Dan Shulman, Buck Martinez, and Hazel Mae then that Blue Jay rotation. Anyway then can pitch in 2021 for Dunedin’s Finest?
@amk1920- I have much more faith in Dan Shulman, Buck Martinez, and Hazel Mae then that Blue Jay rotation. Anyway then can pitch in 2021 for Dunedin’s Finest?
*they
As a jays fan, of course I wanted to pick the over but I couldn’t based on our rotation. I think we will be at 85-86 wins. I do think however we have a lot of upside and if things go right in the rotation the sky is the limit for this team. I’m really excited to see if Vlad takes a step forward and becomes the star we all thought he would be.
I appreciate the honesty
Vladdy can be a star is he is allowed to focus on 1st base as a position and hitting. But if the Jays jerk him around the diamond and in and out of the lineup it is going to be very difficult for him to mature.
You are still pretty biased. Jays had potent offence and bullpen until mid-2015 season and struggled to go over 500. Then they went on some crazy shopping sprees at the deadline to go on 11 game winning streak to finish 93-69. So I think they should be struggling to get 81+ wins.
Pitching and defense still look shaky. I see them as a slightly-above .500 team, mayyybe 90 wins if things break right.
I think they low-key have some good depth in the pen/AAA though. Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, Thornton, Zeuch are all guys who can start.
Might be a lot of 8-7 games though! Should be fun to watch.
And nowhere is Pearson mentioned. Kid’s got the potential to be the real deal
Pearson has a awesome arm and his natural talent got him to the big leagues. But he hasn’t learned to pitch at the big league level yet. He needs more development.
If he can’t develop as a starter then he’ll end up a great closer.
Perfect number. A little easier to bet the under based on lack of rotation depth, but not much.
A potent offense and bullpen that doesn’t blow leads can overcome a mediocre rotation.
Tough one. Grapher0315 used the word “uncertainty” to describe the pitching, but it can be applied to the entire team, including where they will play their home games. They have as many “ifs” as anyone. That generally means keeping the optimism in check because some won’t pan out. The fact that Pearson isn’t mentioned in the synopsis is telling. On the one hand, he has enormous talent and can potentially be a solid mid-rotation or better arm in ’21. On the other, he is unproven, and reports have him as just beginning to “play catch.”
So much is contingent on a 34-year-old Ryu staying healthy when he’s had difficulty doing that in the past. If anything happens to him, the Dunedin…er…Toronto Blue Jays season could spiral downward in a hurry. We also don’t know how proven commodity Yates will bounce back from elbow surgery.
There is some exciting talent on the roster, and it would be nice to see it flourish this season. It just seems more likely that the pitching will be the Jays’ downfall. I’d feel differently had they used the money they’re paying Semien, Ray, Matz on a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. If you’re going to invest in Ryu as your ace, you need to support him with a clear #2.
Under for me, even though the division, in general, has iffy starting pitching.
That’s a fair breakdown. I think counting on high variance arms like Pearson, Ray, Yates (and even Ryu to an extent given his injury history) speak to how the front office views this team: they aren’t going all-in on 2021 but they’ve set themselves up to be a force if certain things break right.
I fully expect more payroll investment from the Jays next offseason if their trajectory continues pointing upward. 2021 might just be a year too soon for everything to come together.
A few things about Mark Shapiro run teams…..
1. His mentality is that of a political guy. A diplomat. A nice guy. Knows a lot of influential people. Your benefactor.
A cloaked control freak.
Consequently he does not have a killer instinct or go all in. He’ll hedge on acquiring players, hedge on bringing them up to the majors, and hedge on turning them loose with playing time until he’s sufficiently neutered them. He’s forever sticking his fingers into the mixture and re-baking the pie.
2. He’ll screw around with players. Loves to be a Svengali and move them to different positions. Thinks he’s a mastermind. Once in a while he hits (usually with players of limited ability in which they become backups and role players…..see Tony Wolters, a former borderline utility infielder that he made into a so-so Catcher). Usually limits what players subsequently achieve at the ML level. Guys with talent often do better once they get out of his organization – although most are so indoctrinated in their mental approach to the game that they seldom are able to break the chains and flourish.
3. He still does not understand pitching. The Indians organization turned the corner on that shortly after he left. He was mentored by John Hart who did the pre-Theo Epstein thing of building a team via offensive position players, then using the surplus to acquire established pitching along with free agency. Having an aging Hyun-jin Ryu – a nice #2 – as his ace is typical.
4. In closing, his teams reflect his philosophy – they seldom play smart, aggressive baseball for any length of time…..always hedging…..always mouthing clever buzzphrases.
–
The Rays will usually beat his Jays teams in the standings as their front office and dugout management understand pitching, defense and matchups. They maximize most players potential and abilities. Shapiro is busy forever recalibrating them,
Good take Samuel.
That was deep Samuel. Good take.
If Ryu is only a nice #2 then idk who a #1 would be. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball for several years now, it’s silly to consider him as anything but a #1 pitcher
1. What does this even mean. Yes, he constantly looks for players to improve the roster and sometimes players become available who are better than the ones that are on the roster? The rays, a team you compare them too, also constantly re-calibrates their roster due to payroll constraints and to trade players at their highest value.
2. Every team, and even more so now, increases the versatility of some players as they go through the minors. Another team thats notorious for that, Tampa. Oakland also does it quite a bit. Brandon Lowe plays 2b, rf, lf and 1b. Rays got Yandy Diaz (picked up by Shapiros Indians initially) bc he plays OF 3rd and 1st. Wendle, plays all over the infield. Brossaeu plays Lf, rf, 3b, 1b and 2b. Tsutsugo plays 3b and lf. Arozarena and Meadowns have played left, right and centre. I could go through Oaklands roster and find the same thing but since you didn’t directly compare to them Ill leave it at the rays comps.
Lourdes, Teoscar and Cavan have definitively flourished despite changing positions. Vlad hit 15% above league average last year as a 20 year old, he’s not exceeding expectations but he isn’t missing them by much. Bichette has flourished. Tellez has flourished.
3. Shapiro was in Cleveland when Triston Mckenzie was drafted, when clevinger was traded for, when Carrasco was traded for, when cluber was traded for, when Bauer was drafted. It’d be tough to actually say he didn’t have a lasting impact on that organization. and what happened after. Those are just a few names. His organizations rejuvenated Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir and Justin mastersons careers. he traded for cliff lee. He was also player development director and Assistant GM when Sabathia was drafted and developed in Cleveland.
4. Its funny that you comment on how the team plays, compare it to how the management operates – criticize both – and then compare them to the rays. The Jays hired Charlie Montoyo as their manager, the rays former triple a coach, specifically BECAUSE their intention is to play like the rays lol. And they do. If you don’t like how the jays use their players then you won’t like how the rays do. they are very similar philosophies.
Is Shapiro allowed to learn from his own previous mistakes? Or from seeing other teams’ successes?
Woods-Richardson and Manoah seem to be on the verge of joining a nice young core of arms.
A signing like Springer wouldn’t have happened previously. Seems to be more aggressive than his reputation would suggest recently, but the hedging aspect is still very apparent.
Strong take overall. Hopeful that the recent recalibrations work fine.
Real interesting mix on this team right now. Can’t wait for April!
They’ve got one hell of a lineup, but man that rotation is just putrid. With the Yankees and Rays in the division, I think they’re right on the mark with the over/under. An injury to Ryu or one of the big bats could make things go south in a hurry, though
Bauer made sense for them. Had they allocated their off-season money properly, they could have afforded both him and Springer. I had a bad feeling about the Jays when they gave $8 million to Ray almost immediately after the 2020 season ended. There was no reason to do that, They should have been selling Bauer on the idea of being King of Canada (or Buffalo or Dunedin).
Bauer would never pitch for Shapiro and that organization.
He knows too much about pitching.
On the other hand, Ryu, who has had a better career, doesn’t know much about pitching. Hence why he did sign with the blue jays?
The rotation isn’t quite as bad as it looks, particularly this season, because it’s 10+ deep. There’s basically Ryu and then 9 number five starters. If pitcher injuries are as bad for everyone this year as many expect, the depth could make the pitching staff middle of the pack compared to top-heavy competition.
An injury to a big bat is no problem, they’ve got more big bats than they have room for and lots of positional flexibility. But no doubt if Ryu goes under the knife the season is over.
Agreed. A lot of teams are going to run out of arms in August due innings limits.
Exactly! I think the depth of the Jays proves big for this coming season. They don’t need every pitcher to go 7 innings. It would be nice but they have arms available and need to limit innings early for the long run.
What depth???
If the Jays rotation is as shaky as it is to those outside of Canada, where is the depth? Depth means they have MLB caliber starting pitchers waiting in AAA. They don’t. Nobody in the USA buys that.
Stripling, Thornton, Hatch, Borucki, Chatwood, Kay, Merryweather, Zeuch — that’s 8 guys who won’t be in the starting 5 but who I’d be comfortable plugging into the rotation to in the event of an injury. 5 of them have proved themselves major league caliber already by posting solid major league seasons, and the other three have major league experience too. I trust all 8 as much as I trust Matz or Roark (which is not a lot, but more than what you’d normally have in reserve, certainly a ton better than the guys who were making starts in 2019).
And I’m American, since that apparently matters to you.
Borucki and Chatwood are relievers on the 2021 team. Shows what you know since you state you are an American.
Zeuch’s been mediocre – in the minor leagues.
Meanwhile two prominent bullpen arms from 2020 no longer there in 2021 in Hatch and Merryweather. That does not help the bullpen.
I asked what depth and you could not answer the question. You gave a bunch of names. Are you now understanding that starting pitching is a glaring problem yet?
Obviously I know they were relievers last year. Obviously that doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that they’re backup rotation options. You literally can’t stash 8 starting pitchers in AAA, you have to keep some in the pen.
They really need another left handed hitter and Blackmon makes so much sense, they won’t have to give up that much, it will be more about money,they can get him and keep the prospects to get the pitching they’ll need at midseason.
Blackmon makes no sense. Aging, expensive, and would not start on the Jays. Road numbers suggest he’d struggle making the Jays squad. Hard pass on Blackmon.
86.5 wins seems a tad high to me. That would put the Jays on a virtually exact % repeat of 2020 over 162 games. Except after the 60 games in 2020 the BlueJays rotation was done and the bullpen burnt out.
Last year I had them at 75 wins before covid. This year it is much the same.
The batting lineup is very good. Well done on Atkins and Shapiro.
No playoffs though for the 2021 BlueJays unless two money starters are acquired. Over 162 [2021] games where are the high quantity and quality of innings coming from anyone but Ryu?
Tanner Roark is done unless he takes special vitamins.
Robbie Ray is a very weak #3
Nate Pearson is not ready and doesn’t know how to pitch in the big leagues yet.
Ross Stripling is not a fulltime starter and maybe good for 50 mediocre innings
Steven Matz is solid #3 but can’t stay on the field. 12 starts then breakdown?
Thomas Hatch is a solid #3 in training
Trent Thornton is a very weak #4
Anthony Kay is a #4 or a good setup/bullpen guy.
TJ Zeuch is a borderline major leaguer, more likely a AAAA player.
Chatwood and Phelps are not starters anymore
SWR is not nearly ready.
Nobody else from the Jays org matters for this year’s rotation.
The depth comments from Jays fans is nonsensical. Not sure how a questionable MLB rotation suddenly has depth. Just because an arm can claim to be a starter does not mean they are deep.
It’s like saying in 2001 the Jays were deep with middle infielders with Gonzalez, Felipe Lopez, Izturis and Joel Lawrence.
Teoscar could be a major star if he gets more playing time. Dude has massive hitting power
It definitely looks like Tanner Roark or Robbie Ray will be your AL CY Young award winner in 2021. Let’s Go Jays! 85-77!
Without a doubt the Blue Jays can hit the ball. They have on-paper a better team defense on the field. Pitching, starting pitching in-particular is a problem.
The depth argument can be summed up with one question; would the AAA starting pitchers be good enough for several rotations in the major leagues? At this point the answer is no. If the depth at starting pitching is as good as some of you believe then they should be given the opportunity to make the team outright rather than be sent to Buffalo. Carry the best five starting pitchers, period.
Baltimore should improve, Boston should improve, if the Yankees stay healthy they will improve. Tampa’s bats are underrated. Blue Jays are in for a fight.
I put them just short at 85-77, but that could be 88+ if Pierson comes through or they make an upgrade or two to the staff throughout the season/trade deadline.
The Jays could really use more SP help, but the offense should make them a strong contender for one of those wildcard spots. I don’t think the Yankees have that much more certainty than Toronto, yet every projection seems to love NY (shocker).
I just don’t see 85 wins with that rotation. The offense should be great but in the end it all comes down to pitching, and a lot of uncertainty there. Too much for me to be bullish on their prospects.
They’re going to both fun to watch and frustrating to watch. I think the pitching is going to be a glaring sore thumb like last year.
I think they ve built a solid team, they need to address pitching on all levels next off season instead of burning thru prospects at the deadline at this point.
Expectations on the Jays this year are high, but 2022 is the year this club becomes very serious yearly contenders. Martin, Grochans, SWR etc are all realistic high impact call ups for 2022. I’d assume the Jays will be in on the high end SP and SS free agent market next winter. These are the prices that are going to push this team over the edge from good to awesome.
I’m a Blue Jays fan, but I still have reservations about them. Last year they were 32-28, but posted an 8-2 record against the Orioles, which means they were 24-26 against everyone else. I don’t think they can win in the playoffs with that starting pitching., assuming they even make the playoffs.
Umm, Ever heard of Nate Pearson? He WILL be their Ace imo! Not many hurlers have the arsenal this guy has and I believe once he gets settled in the bigs, the Jays hit their stride! Not to mention they got a log-jam of stud infielders(Martin/Groshans coming up on the heels on Biggio/Bichette/Vlad Jr.) who could be used as trade-bait for another proven front-line starter!
I love them to win a lot of high scoring games this year, and I think they can push 90 wins, that being said I don’t think they can do much in the playoffs without a massive starting pitcher acquisition and with most of their “well if he does this” scenarios getting checked off
They do have pretty great depth at starting pitching, and can run approximately 12 guys out that would be serviceable, but only Ryu and Pearson, and maybe… Maybe Ray would have it for the playoffs.
Here’s to hoping and a great season
Let’s go blue jays
Pitching is the biggest question mark for the Blue Jays this year without a doubt. But I got see them potentially hitting 95+ wins this year as the pitching being the backbone to their success. That rotation may scare the Vegas boys in beating on them, but I seriously think that Rotation will surprise people. At worst, they will trade for a rotation piece to help keep up with Tampa and NYY. I for one thought Blue Jays would be a favorite fit for Musgrove and/or Tallion. Those two ot one in that rotation with Matz and Ryu, would have been very promising season and really would have had Yankees trying to up their game. It might not mean much now, but who knows what it will look like in October
162-0
For sure chief for sure
I was thinking with advances in modern statistics and the Jays high level payroll flexibility, it’s not crazy to think they could win 245 maybe 300 games.
Shake n bake! Go Jays!