This season has not started in ideal fashion for the majority of last year’s 16-team playoff field. While the Dodgers, Brewers and Athletics boast terrific records at roughly the 20-game mark, everybody else who qualified for the postseason in 2020 is, at best, hovering around .500. Eight of those clubs currently have more losses than wins (we’ll get to them in a bit).
With a 162-game schedule instead of a 60-game slate, slumping teams have far more time to rebound from slow starts this season. On the other hand, only 10 clubs will make the playoffs in 2021, so teams can ill afford to dig early holes for themselves.
American League
Twins (2020 record: 36-24; 2021 record: 6-11):
- The Twins are coming off an 0-4, COVID-interrupted road trip that came to a horrific end with a 13-12 loss Wednesday, when sloppy defense led to an extra-innings collapse against the A’s. Reliever Alex Colome – the Twins’ keynote bullpen acquisition of the offseason – took the loss, continuing a rough start to the year for him. Meanwhile, ace Kenta Maeda turned in his worst performance of the season (seven earned runs in three innings) and has only gotten past the 4 1/3-frame mark in one of his four starts. The Twins will likely need the Maeda of old back if they’re going to push for a third straight AL Central title, though Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda have helped pick up the slack in their rotation so far. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense hasn’t been a juggernaut (Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler and Andrelton Simmons have missed time with health issues), but Byron Buxton may be in the early stages of a breakthrough year at the plate and Nelson Cruz isn’t showing signs of slowing down.
Yankees (2020 record: 33-27; 2021 record: 6-11):
- The Yankees were pegged as serious World Series contenders entering the season, but they have looked like bottom-feeders so far. What was supposed to be a high-powered offense has totaled the AL’s fewest runs and put up its second-worst wRC+, owing in part to the absence of injured 2020 home run king Luke Voit. The Yankees’ pitching has been much better than their hitting, but that’s largely thanks to the work of their bullpen – which hasn’t had many leads to protect. Gerrit Cole and, to a much lesser extent, Jordan Montgomery have carried their rotation, while offseason acquisitions Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon haven’t been all that effective coming off injuries, and Domingo German has struggled mightily in his return from a domestic violence suspension. The Yankees should get former ace Luis Severino back from Tommy John surgery during the summer, but there’s no telling how he’ll perform in the wake of two straight injury-wrecked seasons.
Blue Jays (2020 record: 32-28; 2021 record: 8-10):
- The Jays have dealt with a rash of injuries to their pitching staff, including in their rotation – an area that could be a significant question mark even if everyone’s healthy. They have also had to go without their main offseason acquisition, center fielder George Springer, though he shouldn’t be far off from returning from a quad strain. To the Jays’ credit, they’ve essentially tread water thus far, and their plus-10 run differential does rank third in the AL.
Astros (2020 record: 29-31; 2021 record: 7-10):
- The Astros sneaked into the playoffs last year with a sub-.500 record, though they still came within a game of reaching the World Series for the third time in four seasons. However, the team then got weaker in the offseason with the loss of Springer, whom it didn’t adequately replace, and was dealt another blow when starter Framber Valdez suffered a serious finger injury at the beginning of the spring. The Astros reacted by signing veteran Jake Odorizzi, who has delivered miserable results through his first two starts. Aside from Zack Greinke and Luis Garcia, Astros starters have not gotten the job done, while their bullpen has also been a letdown in the early going. Fortunately, even without Springer, a healthy version of Houston’s offense still brings plenty of firepower to the table.
Which of the above four AL teams do you believe has the best chance to rebound and make the playoffs? (Poll link for app users)
National League
Braves (2020 record: 35-25; 2021 record: 8-10)
- The back-to-back-to-back NL East champions have fallen behind in April, thanks in part to injuries to starters Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Drew Smyly. The Braves overcame a series of health problems in their staff last year to earn a trip to the NLCS, of course, but an elite offense led the way then. Their attack has been above average again this year, though Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are their only regulars who have offered star-caliber production. Conversely, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Travis d’Arnaud have gotten off to brutal starts at the plate.
Cubs (2020 record: 34-26; 2021 record: 8-9)
- The most significant move the Cubs executed over the winter was one that weakened them, at least in the short term. The team said goodbye to Yu Darvish, sending the 2020 NL Cy Young finalist to San Diego for fellow righty Zach Davies and a few prospects. Cutting costs was part of the motivation for that trade and in general when it came to the Cubs’ offseason; as a result, many were bearish on their chances heading into 2021. So far, the preseason pessimism has been warranted. The Cubs have not hit much, evidenced by bottom four National League rankings in runs and wRC+, and their pitching staff owns the NL’s third-highest ERA. Of their starters, only Jake Arrieta and Alec Mills have managed to post an ERA south of 5.00 so far. Surprisingly, the club’s best pitcher has been closer Craig Kimbrel, who’s back in dominant form after he was largely written off before the season.
Cardinals (2020 record: 30-28; 2021 record: 8-10):
- The Cardinals pulled off one of the ultimate headline-grabbing moves of the offseason in acquiring star third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. The hope then was that Arenado would lift an offense that finished 2020 with a less-than-stellar wRC+ of 93. Arenado has indeed notched solid production so far, yet the Cardinals’ wRC+ sits at an almost identical 94 through 18 games. Meantime, the bottom-line results of the Cardinals’ starters have been a far bigger problem, as their rotation – which is missing the injured Miles Mikolas – has recorded the NL’s fifth-worst ERA.
Marlins (2020 record: 31-29; 2021 record: 8-9):
- As an unexpected playoff entrant a year ago, the Marlins entered this season having to prove themselves all over again. While their record isn’t impressive, the Marlins have outscored their opposition by four runs, logged the NL’s fourth-highest wRC+, and gotten a strong effort from a rotation missing injured righties Sixto Sanchez and Elieser Hernandez. Their starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been a mixed bag – Dylan Floro, Yimi Garcia, John Curtiss, Ross Detwiler and Adam Cimber have kept hitters at bay, but offenses have had their way with Zach Pop, Anthony Bass, Richard Bleier and Paul Campbell.
Which of the above four NL teams do you believe has the best chance to rebound and make the playoffs? (Poll link for app users)
I am a hard core Yankee fan and I do not see a bounce back. We will be lucky not to have a losing record
Wonder if the deadened ball is affecting the effectiveness of the 3 true outcome baseball that the Yankees popularized the last few years.
@Baseball 1600- I don’t think the Yankees will worry about a deadened ball once their All-Star lst basemen Luke Voit is healthy and playing again. I could be wrong. I doubt it though. Not panicking yet. It is just way too early to do that, only one month into the season.
@ Baseball – Def a solid point and something worth discussing..
@Dogbone- Where have you been this year?
@baseball16. Deadened ball!!!!! What?!! No offense, but I watched that Reds- Dback game this afternoon. It doesn’t seem to be much difference in the ball, from last year. If there is, it’s not much.
Home runs in Cincy don’t count.
Home runs are down across the board. The average HR/9 rate is 1.2. In 2019, it was 1.4 and then 1.3 in 2020. Right now, the average OPS is just .701. That’s the first time since 2014 it’s dipped below .705.
Doubles and triples are down, too. Strikeouts up (of course). Batting average at an all-time low of .233, though one would think it will improve with the warm weather.
There have already been 47 shutouts. In last year’s 60-game season there was only 12 total.
Relievers-per-game is through the roof. Looks like a wild ride in 2021.
There weren’t any cold weather games at the beginning of the shortened 2020 season. That can cool off the offense greatly.
@basquiat- yeah hitting in Cincy is like hitting in Colorado, in scoring position when your in the batter’s box. lol
I think we should have expected more pitcher per game in 2021. No pitcher threw more than 100 innings in 2020. Essentially going one whole year off of the regular routine was going to lead to shorter outings and more injuries.
So with hitters making less contact, that would naturally lead to fewer HR’s, triples, and doubles. It may not have anything to do with a deadened ball.
47 shutouts ⚾️that is not correct .
They stitched the ball different in 2021
mlb1225, In a 60 game season nobody should expect 100 innings pitched. That would translate into 200 innings over 120 games and 250 innings over 150 games.
Very obvious no pitcher was going to throw 100 innings in 60 games.
@ Baseball 1600;
B I N G O
The deadened baseball has a lot to so with what is happening this season.
I watch a lot of games. The teams that stress playing as a team – executing on defense which include cut-offs and backing up teammates behind the bases and in the OF, placing the ball on offense which includes beating the shift. and knowing when to take an extra base when running, are winning games.
Today I saw it as the Pirates beat the Tigers. More and more teams are playing real baseball – overwhelmingly the small market teams that are not built around high-priced power hitters and power pitchers. Even the Dodgers play that way, and the Giants led by vets Crawford, Posey, and Belt are doing the same.
Like video, statistics lie…….when you can’t see the entire picture and put them into perspective.
@NY_Yankee- I wouldn’t start worrying just yet. We’re only a month into the season. If it was September, I would start to worry. Glad this is happening now instead of later, that is my point. Based on the voting the Yankees and Braves should both bounce back and make the playoffs this season. I definitely agree.
I think their offense will wake up, but that starting staff doesn’t inspire confidence even when healthy. I wonder how many times the thought of asking Sabathia to go one more year has crossed Cashman’s mind.
@solaris602- you might be right with the offense waking up. But there is no reason why the Yankees couldn’t trade for a starter like German Marquez or a Zac Gallen, if they had to. They definitely have the minor league talent to do so. So if Kluber or Taillon need to be replaced, they more than likely will go the trade route. Deivi, Schmidty, Gil, Abreu, Medina, and Vizcaino just to name a few pitchers in the minors that could be traded for a frontline starter.
Gallen is going to cost two arms and two legs
Time to throw in the towel and trade what they can to more deserving teams. C’mon hand em over
Too early to panic and the Yankees bats will come around. I just don’t think you have the pitching to get it done
Yankees aren’t finished. An elite pitcher, good pitcher and Taillon looks like he can be good. They have enough upside arms that 1 more guy can emerge. A lot of guys start slow in April. Some bats will wake up.
With all due respect I’m a Braves fan and Freddie’s .222 batting average doesn’t seem star caliber quite yet.
@FredMcGriff for the HOF, He’s raised his average 35 points and his OPS 70 points in the last week. His hard hit rate is right where it’s always been, he’s just been hitting the ball right at guys. He’s starting to breakout now. Of all the Braves not to worry about after the slow start, he’s it.
Well, our starting pitching isn’t good. We’ll win some games, but there’s no really good SPs outside of Cole.
The Marlins bullpen has been their only real detriment. They’re hitting just as well as last year, their rotation (despite injuries) has been great, Anthony Bass alone has cost this team three wins. They’re such a fun team to watch. They’re playing fine.
Bass was pretty solid in 2018-2020, but I think they should have made a bigger commitment when it came to RP this off season. Kim said they wanted to add somer relievers, but didn’t bring in anything of note. The Pirates will likely be looking to trade Richard Rodriguez this deadline and if the Marlins are anything close to contending, I could see the two teams swinging a deal.
Lets also see how Kyle Crick does the rest of the first half. He too may be in demand.
He’s done okay, but his strikeouts are way down. He doesn’t have good control and needs to get those strikeouts to make up for that. His velocity was down to around 90 MPH in 2020, but is now sitting around 93 MPH. Still a ways off from his 95-97 MPH peak in 2018-2019. If the Pirates get an offer for him, I think they take it.
As a baseball fan I love to see the progress the Marlins are making. As a Braves fan it’s a little scary to see the little brother maturing to take on his big brother. It’s going to be an interesting division for the foreseeable future.
People are way too bullish on that Yankees team, their rotation is Cole and a number of question marks, their offense is way too reliant on the long ball, and almost the entire roster is woefully injury-prone. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish in third or even fourth place in the east—the Blue Jays have a lot of exciting young talent, the Rays always find a way, and I don’t think that Red Sox team is all smoke and mirrors either.
Padres not on this list? Just got swept by the Brewers and even though they’re at .500, their last 3 series = split with Pirates, loss to Dodgers, swept by Brewers, and now have a 4 game set with LA meaning they’ll likely be under .500 approaching May
It is expressly a list of 2020 playoff teams that currently have more losses than wins. The Padres are not on that list — nor are the other .500 teams like the White Sox and Indians.
Eh, once Tatis, Pham, and Machado get hot the Padres will be fine. Plus Nola will come back and replace Campusano, which will help out the pitching a lot. I’m not getting worried after just 20 games.
The Jays’ plus-10 run differential is largely due to a game they won 15-1. Otherwise they’ve lost a lot of close games.
The Twins REALLY need to reset their computer system where they get all their sabermetrics and algorithms from. Maybe unplug it and plug it back in again?
Why was Colome left in the game to throw 49 pitches?!? Since he’s been a reliever, the last time he threw that many was August 16, 2015, when he threw 50 pitches in a game.
In an era where starters like little Blake “Swaggy” Snell get tired after throwing 50 pitches, what did they expect from a RELIEVER?
I wonder if Falvey and Lavine have it out for Colome; did he break some unwritten rule and they ordered Baldelli to punish him? Does this come from the almighty AI? I know some players are against sabermetrics and algorithms, but I hope that’s not reason for them to punish him.
Very suspicious all around. If Colome comes up injured, hopefully his agent does what he can to expose the formulas they use in this year’s version of their sabermetrics to make every decision.
@ Egon Spengler;
It’s suspicious that a team like the Twins that considers themselves a contender, signed him.
And those 40-some pitches were over 2 innings. A guy making that kind of money can’t pitch 2 innings?
Orange math bad
It’s been 20 games. Chill with the “Will they bounce back?!?” mania. At 60 games, we can start worrying.
Even then, 2019 Nats won it all starting 19-31, so there’s precedence.
Yup, the Nats bounced back. When they were 19-31 there was certainly a question whether they would.
this is litteraly just a fun poll dude. its not a big deal.
Yes, it is. Connor isn’t known for in-depth articles, and a fun poll would be “WhO iS uR fAVORiTE pLAYER of ALL tiME?!?”
Rays have more key players on the IL than NYY + are rolling out waiver wire scrubs like Wacha and AARP members (Hill) and are STILL clowning the Yanks. Wish we could play them every day!
While it is way too early to worry about current standings, the teams in East divisions seem to have the hardest rows to hoe. The Red Sox and Rays look like they will provide stiff competition to the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL, while the Mets and Phillies will do the same against the Braves and Marlins in the NL.
I think the Twins will have less competition in the AL Central as I think the Royals will fall back down soon, and the White Sox and Indians are only sitting at .500 as it is.
Similarly, I expect the Mariners to drop in the AL West, and I’m still not sold on the A’s as frontrunners, so I think the Astros will be in the thick of it as the season progresses.
And it still feels like the NL Central is completely up for grabs. The Brewers pitching can’t stay as incredibly good as it has been, while the Reds offense will probably regress too. The Cardinals have more talent than the Cubs, so they should have a better chance to move up the standings.
How about them Cardinals?
How bout em? I don’t know what response you’re looking for
Bounce back AND make the playoffs changes which teams I’d go for.
Last 2 games Cards got good work for their pitching, their offense was just nowhere to be seen. They’ll score 16 runs one game then score 10 over the next 6. Offense is very unproductive even with a struggling pitching staff
@Mike.
Cards are feast or famine just like last year.
No consistency because over 50% of their runs come from Home Runs (this includes runners on base when someone hits a homer).
The pitching is the important part. This team’s formula was always based on pitching and defense. I think the offense will start to level out. Justin Williams is starting to get comfortable. Hopefully O’Neill will use the time off to get his head together. I think he was putting way too much pressure on himself. Bader will help if by nothing else keeping Tommy at 2B and Carpenter on the bench. DeJong is always going to be streaky. But if the pitching gets better and keeps them in games, the record will improve. This team was never going to win 100 games. Just win the Central and make the playoffs. That’s all the front office hopes for.
This is a wonderful article.. M:LBTR should do this more often.
What goes on in all pro sports journalism is like a business or the government that’s always publishing their plans, but no one ever bothers to publish audits on how they’re doing in meeting those projected plans. Instead, they just publish more PR and more plans. At times the consumer should be given an update.
No different than Quality Assurance / Quality Control in manufacturing. Quality Assurance proposes the expectations which management signs off on. Quality Control monitors to see how those expectations are being met.
How in the world are the Yankees leading this poll with that rotation?
Rotation looks good to me as long as they stay healthy. Taillon had one bad outing. Kluber looked solid last outing. German will need to see some more.
YourDreamGM
Kluber looked solid last outing.
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4 walks in 4.2 IPs is not going to win you a lot of games.
@ osfandan;
Because NYC baseball fans don’t understand how the game is played, and there are a lot of them.
I’m figuring the Cardinals are gonna be like the all year. They added Arenado (bad move, in my opinion) but didn’t do enough else to improve. Marlins are the Marlins, they’re going nowhere this season. Cubs don’t seem that good either. Braves will be fine.
Why was Arenado a bad move? His OPS+ is 127, right in line with his best Coors years. He’s still a tremendous 3B
He’s not the problem
He’s not the problem at all. Definitely improved the team this year but, in the long run, that contract is gonna kill them. He’s due to decline sooner rather than later.
I hope the braves bounce back, I think the offense will heat up eventually, it just kind of feels like a top heavy line-up. I’m more worried about relievers though, there is something wrong when you have to bring in Luke Jackson or Nate Jones in key situations. I’m still kind of shocked that Anthopoulos did nothing to address the bullpen after we lost 3 of our top relievers (o’Day, Greene, Melancon) to free agency. O’DAY and Melancon could have been had for dirt cheap so there shouldn’t have been any excuse to not bring them back, especially when you’re “contending”. Hopefully someone not named Tyler Matzek will step up.
The Yankees will make the playoffs, but they aren’t a WS team. Just enough to continue to string the fans along.
Once the playoffs start, anybody in it has a shot, Yankees included
Yep. Yankee’s have pitching and hr hitters. Dangerous team.
Well, our starting pitching isn’t good. We’ll win some games, but there’s no really good SPs outside of Cole.
No, not necessarily. The playoffs are not a total crapshoot. Pitching wins most of the time and if the Yankees are lining up Taillon or Montgomery v. Lynn, it’s much harder to win.
All the AL teams can turn it around. NL just the braves and cardinals because of the weak division. Marlins lack bats. Cubs have looked finished for awhile. Darvish wouldn’t have mattered. They can hang around because of central but fire sale might be a good idea.
Surprised in the poll how much lower the defending champion Cubs are than the Cards. The teams pound-for-pound are virtually identical with poor builds by management. I give the Cubs the advantage because if they need to spend & maneuver — they can. Cards not so much. I agree tho the Braves ultimately will be the best of the four, although i’m not as sold on Atlanta’s pitching as much as everyone else is.
I agree that the teams are similarly talented with some designs flaws, but I disagree with your second point. The Cubs have talked all offseason about their financial constraints. The Cardinals got the Rockies to pay Arenado’s salary this season and have expiring contracts in Fowler(who they are basically still paying), Carpenter, Miller, and C-Mart. They also have a deeper farm system to deal from if need be. I would say in this regard the Cardinals are better positioned to maneuver.
4 Nice surprises early
Mil- Love the staff, Love Counsell
SF- Z doing work up there, semi pains me
KC- This offence has some ump to it! AL central might be the funniest Div 21
Sea- Jerry doing a low key great job up there, Id want this franchise today over any AL west org moving forward. Their times comin soon
Agree on all. Royals ran and bunted their way to a victory Wednesday. Old school, what a sight to see. Great managing and execution.
Agree on all as well. These teams are patient, and not jumping at expensive shiny objects. I particularly like that Mil added two fo the best defenders in the game.
home runs and strike outs are killing baseball
Braves and Yankees are the easy and obvious answers.
The Braves should explore a trade with Cleveland for Jose Ramirez. It would cost a lot of prospect capital for sure. But it serves a dual purpose: 1.) take this year’s offense over the top and 2.) hedge against the possibility of losing Freddie Freeman in the offseason. Ramirez is a monster on an affordable contract that I don’t see precluding them from extending Freddie.