Royals left-hander Danny Duffy made his return from the injured list this evening, starting tonight’s game against the Yankees. The 32-year-old tossed two scoreless innings in a purposely brief appearance, his first action in a little more than a month. Before going on the IL with a left flexor strain, Duffy had gotten off to a very strong start to the season. Through seven starts totaling 41 2/3 innings, he worked to a pristine 1.94 ERA/2.35 FIP/3.65 SIERA.
Over the season’s first month-plus, he punched out a well above-average 28.2% of opposing hitters, a career-best mark, while walking only 7.1%. On a pitch-by-pitch basis, Duffy generated swings and misses at a 14.2% clip, also a career-best figure that’s well above the league average of 11.4%. His average fastball, slider and curveball velocity were all up between one and two ticks relative to last season. He held that increased pitch speed in today’s start, a welcome development considering there could’ve been some concern about potential lingering effects of the injury and accompanying layoff.
Because of the injury, his body of work remains a fairly small sample. Duffy’s had better month-plus stretches in his career, but he hasn’t had a seven-start run at this level since late in 2017, his last season posting an ERA below 4.00. Duffy’s not going to sustain an ERA below 2.00, but he certainly looks to have bounced back from his middling 2018-20 form. Between 2016-17, the veteran worked to a 3.64 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers- solid mid-rotation production. Given his improved raw stuff and early-season peripherals, it’s not unreasonable to think he can approximate that kind of performance moving forward.
If Duffy continues to pitch at an above-average level while building back towards a starter’s workload, contending clubs figure to reach out about his potential availability. The Royals got off to a strong start but they’ve fallen off rather precipitously since the start of May. Now 33-39, Kansas City has fallen ten games back in the American League Central. They don’t seem like plausible postseason contenders in 2021. With Duffy slated to be a free agent at the end of the year- and the trade market for starting pitching shaping up to be thin- he’d be a fairly straightforward trade candidate in most organizations.
The Royals operate differently than many MLB teams, though. The front office has a reputation for being more loyal than most, and they’ve re-signed or reacquired many of the players who contributed to their pennant-winning clubs of the last decade. Trading away marquee players midseason hasn’t been their M.O.
In the past, Duffy has expressed a desire to stick in Kansas City for his entire career. In response to 2017 trade rumors, he rather famously tweeted “bury me a Royal” and expressed a strong affinity for the organization and the city. Even if the front office were willing to consider moving him near the deadline, Duffy could end those discussions. He entered the season with 9.085 years of MLB service, meaning he’ll have eclipsed ten years by July 30. Players with ten years of service, the most recent five with the same team, are granted full no-trade rights under the terms of the CBA. If Duffy has no interest in moving elsewhere midseason, he could exercise his 10-and-5 rights and block a move.
The Royals’ record and Duffy’s impending free agency could open a mutually-beneficial opportunity for a midseason deal, though. Trading Duffy (with his permission) before July 30 could give him an opportunity to play in a pennant race in 2021 and allow the organization to bring in some young talent. A midseason trade wouldn’t foreclose the two sides reuniting next winter. It’s not common for teams to sign players whom they traded away midseason in free agency the following offseason, but it’s not completely unheard of, either (the Cubs’ 2014 deal with Jason Hammel and the Yankees’ 2016 reunion with Aroldis Chapman being prominent examples). A trade would result in Duffy forfeiting his 10-and-5 rights, but the sides could agree on a no-trade clause as part of a free agent deal if he’s concerned about being moved again in the future.
It’s certainly possible the two sides work out a long-term deal during or after the year, with Duffy never changing uniforms. While it seems unlikely, there’s some chance the Royals hang onto Duffy all season but allow him to depart in free agency. But the opportunity also seems to exist for a trade that could appeal to both Duffy and the Royals, even if both sides want to continue the relationship over the long term.
We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership: how should and how will the Royals handle Duffy’s impending free agency? (poll links for app users)
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obvious cop-out, but it’s kinda a matter of what people offer in return. if he could net something quite nice, deal him. if not, ride it out and look at extention.
It is but it’s exactly how I feel too. If I had to venture a guess I’d say in this particular season I’d trade him. I think it’s going to be a “sellers year” for starting pitching which should drive his market up.
Trade him for the best deal you can get. Build, Build, Build for the next few years.
Trade him. 2 or 3 months with another team isn’t going to affect his desire to stay with KC in any meaningful way. If anything, a trade is the best thing that could possibly happen to him. He gets a shot at another ring this Fall and gets to enter free agency without the qualifying offer hanging over his head.
I agree with the sentiment that they should trade him and then work to sign him in the offseason but the reality is that the Royals don’t really trade “core” players at all. Even when they’ve been in a clear position to be sellers in previous trade deadline times the most noise they make is shipping out a 4th OF or a middle reliever. Duffy is playing out his contract in KC the rest of this year and resigning in the winter in my opinion.
“Didn’t” doesn’t mean “don’t.” The only thing that can stop the Royals from making a smart move like that is themselves.
This is MOSTLY true. I don’t think the Royals will trade Danny, but we did trade Moose.
Plus, assuming he brings back a decent prospect haul, not only does he get the chance to go compete for another World Series ring, enter free agency without the Qualified Tag, and he helps the Royals now and in the future by getting them prospects and he could still sign back in Kansas City in the offseason.
The question becomes what can the Royals get for him?
The only way the Royals issue Duffy a qualifying offer is if they really want him to accept it. No team is going to value Duffy at around $19 million for one season.
@Rsox…
1. They are very loyal to their players. They already overpaid Salvy Perez in his last extension. And the qualifying offer is only for one year. And not even really an overpay based on what Duffy is doing this year.
2. If he isn’t traded or extended they really won’t have any choice but to QO him.
Randy Johnson thinks your name is uncalled for..
That guy has a career 3.29 ERA. He doesn’t need pitcher wins to make his case.
The 87th day of the season is this Saturday. So that is when he would achieve his 10-and-5 rights.
Dayton Moore has a history of keeping productive, long-time Royals players – perhaps to his detriment.
I would trade Duffy at his peak value, but I believe Dayton will hang on to him thru year end.
Dayton may be overly loyal, in my opinion, but he is on the cusp of building another small market winner in KC.
On the cusp? Bruh, the Royals got a LONG way to go. Like, a LONG way to go.
not at all correct
They have young starters in the rotation that are taking steps towards jelling (B. Keller, B. Singer, K. Bubic) with others on the way, who already made their MLB Debuts (Lynch & Kowar). They also have position players that are starting to produce at the MLB level and more working their way up. So yeah, you can see why some people can reasonably say that they’re “on the cusp”.
And they are 9.5 games back of the 2nd AL Wild Card spot. At this rate, they will be 21 games back of the 2nd AL Wild Card spot on the day the regular season ends.
Because every team in baseball will perform exactly how they have performed so far? Makes me wonder why they bother to play 162 games when we already know how it will end. Extrapolate at your own risk.
@Remove – On the cusp doesn’t necessarily mean this season. They’re building toward 2022-23 in a division lacking a powerhouse team, though the White Sox should be strong during this same period.
As a Sox fan I view the Royals as our biggest competitor over the next 5 years. Wait until Witt is ready. He will make an impact.
The Royals are talented but inconsistent, like many young teams. They had the best record in the majors a month into the season, and then they had an 11 game losing streak. They’re better than their record indicates. Not there yet, to be sure, but better than their current record.
@Whyhayzee I said “At this rate!”
@TLB2001 they got a LONG way to go. Although the prospect(s) they could get for Duffy would for sure help narrow that gap.
This is where Dayton Moore will get in his own way. I think they missed their opportunity to rebuild – and now were heading into a re-rebuild. Yes there are a lot of young pitchers – but over-all, this team is old. Most of the position players are over 29 – if not 30. They’ve brought up a few younger guys this season – Guttierez, Isbel, Olivares – but they’ve also sent 2 of them back down – and I’m not sure how Guttierez is holding on – he kills more Moles than Orkin. They are now locked in to Dozier for 4 years – with his last place offensive WAR. Meanwhile, Mondesi has played exactly how many games this season? Salvador Perez is playing his best baseball – but he’s in his 30s – as is 2-hit Whit – who hasn’t looked the same since the first 2 weeks of the season. Taylor / Soler are on one year deals – and we’re on the hook for Santana for another – at age 36. One of the bright spots is Benetendi – who at 26, only has one year of control left. I think that’s going to be a tough re-sign.
We have two years left of Beni and there are some position players on the farm (Pratto, Witt, Isbel) that I think still have a very good chance of contributing to a winning major league club.
Soler and Dozier are admittedly huge black holes right now that either need to get going or go away.
This is incorrect, 2022 is the last year of club control over Benentendi. The Royals should be looking at extending him ASAP.
Y’all are crazy to write off future royals ! They could not have done a better job rebuilding and they have another top 10 pick this year. This team has a perfect mix of vets and youth and they will eventually jell. Although I don’t believe they have the right manager at this time….
Twins window is closing if not closed, Cleveland eventually will not sustain their success and Detroit is a terribly ran franchise that’ll never win long term.
That leaves the white Sox- who soon will be the best team in AL. So doubt royals compete for central but wild card – no doubt. They should be there in 22 season and that should open up a 4-5 year window.
Disagree with some of this, @bot.
I don’t the Twins window is “closed”. Bad season to be sure, but they’ll just reload over the winter. Pretty good front office. The Indians seem to always pull another rabbit out of their hat. I also am not as critical of the Tigers as you.
But.
KC definitely has something going on.
I don’t think I saw them play at all last year. Watching them play the Yanks the last couple days have shown me that this is absolutely a better/more promising club than in ’19.
I’d be surprised if they are not relevant by ’23 at the latest.
That was a good hot take on the saber metrics. I agree w a lot of what u said and due to how everything is so wrapped up into one stat is why I don’t think much of it either. Mostly they poorly weigh out competition
When it comes to the Tigers. When Miggy was in his prime they had like 5/6 best players out of top 30-40 players in all of baseball yet could never put together a successful season weighed against their massive talent. So I’m writing them off til they can impress in the win column.
Hey, thanks @bot.
& – yeah – that’s a Big Reason that I don’t care for OPS+.
Fair enough.
I guess I’m just not all that willing to write them off based on their postseason struggles from back then.
I would think the starters market is thick instead of thin in the Central.. the Twins have 5 starters they could trade.. 3 they will trade (2 of them if they can give them away) ; berrios ; who only has i year of control left and isn’t likely to resign, Maeda.. who Like Berrios won’t be needed next year because the Twins are in the just compete mode. it doesn’t take a lot of pitching to do that… and of course Happless and ShoelessMaker.. and Pineda who are all free agents.. and then they have the short timers in the pen.. Like Rodgers.. the Twins could stock the shelves of several clubs.. The Blue Jays are looking for a lefty bat.. they Twins have several and could easily afford to offload 1 or even 2 of them.. Cruz is a FA, Donaldson likely isn’t happy with the situation.. Simmons is a free agent, Robles is a FA and Colome’ is a Trade, DFA waiver waiting to happen..
This seems like a no brainer assuming all parties involved are rational people. There’s no reason for hurt feelings. The Royals should absolutely do what is best for the future of their ballclub. They may be an ascending team, but there’s no way they are in position to say “nah, we’re good. We don’t need anymore pieces.” I don’t expect Duffy to continue pitching this well anyway. Small sample improvement doesn’t disprove multiple season downward trends. They should sell high.
Mondesi Perez Benny Whit and Santana is a really core and an actually pretty nice young bullpen ..watch out next year when Bobby Witt and Asa Lacy are added as well
Lacy has done nothing to show that he’ll be ready for 2022. He’s struggling mightily with command in high A ball. Still early, and didn’t pitch in 2021, so I’m definitely not calling him a bust, I’m just saying it’s far more likely he’ll be in the 2023 class.
It is 2021 bro. I think you meant 2020?
I did mean 2020! Thanks for the correction.
His value is sky high right now and he’s truly not that good historically. Not that hes bad, but not a franchise player if you ask me. Trade him ASAP, get everything and anything you can for him, and if you desperately want him after this year … just sign him in the off-season. But I’d be happy to move on if I’m a royals fan.
Right now he’s damaged goods. No one wants a starter who only goes 2 innings – even if they are scoreless. He will need to build back up to 6 inning starts several times before any time will bite as there is a probability he will re-injure his forearm and require surgery.
He was on a pitch limit dude. He didn’t do a rehab assignment he’s just working back to full load after sitting out for three weeks. I think more concerning for teams is going to be the words “flexor strain” next to his name on the transaction log.
32 yr old starting pitcher entering free agency and your team isn’t going to be close to winning your division = trade. If KC does their homework they should be able to get a high risk high possible ceiling 19-20 yr old prospect and maybe a future bullpen arm.
The dude is a ticking time bomb. 25 pitches and opening? All set with that delaying the inevitable non-sense.
Again, hasn’t pitched in three weeks. 25 pitches was just stretching him back out and not necessarily indicative of his elbow situation.
I wanted to trade him years ago. Now we really need to trade him. Just give us something please.
He is having a great year at 32. Deal him and if you think you will be in the hunt next year he should be reasonably attainable to bring back.
Trade him to the cardinals
Why in the world would you want to give an extension to an oft-injured, inconsistent 32yr old? He will be lucky to get a MLB offer in the off-season. Trade him to a desperate playoff-bound team, because he can help, maybe as a bullpen piece. Duffy always seems to look great first time thru the lineup.
Agreed. I mean when he hits the FA market this winter he’s probably looking at a 1-year pillow contract with like Detroit or Seattle anyway. First off you don’t know how healthy he’ll be, and even if he’s 100% you don’t know what kinda results you’re gonna get. Trade him next month to a desperate team willing to overpay. Extending him is just inviting regret.
1-year pillow contract for a guy with a 1.85 ERA?
He won’t sign with anyone else. Danny will pitch for the Royals or retire. I know it doesn’t make sense, but Danny has always been a different kind of cat.
You mean like how Rich Hill would either sign with the Dodgers, Red Sox or retire? And how Madison Bumgarner would either sign with the Giants, Braves or retire?
How could we forget when the Orioles traded Sidney Ponson at the 2003 deadline (in arguably his only good season) and the resign him the following offseason?
I just don’t understand why KC would resign this guy when they aren’t in a position to win right now?
Duffy was the name of my first dog. Have him neutered and keep him. It worked for us. Why not the Royals?