Carlos Rodón was selected third overall in the 2014 draft and was an immediate top prospect upon entering pro ball. He flew to the big leagues, making his MLB debut ten months after his draft date. Rodón was immediately a productive starter, pitching to a 3.75 ERA/4.20 SIERA across 139 1/3 innings as a 22-year-old. It would’ve been easy for the White Sox to envision him as another top-of-the-rotation arm in an organization that had already produced Chris Sale and José Quintana.
Rodón didn’t make the jump to that level over the next few seasons though. He was fine from 2016-18, working to a 4.11 ERA/4.46 FIP, but it seemed he’d plateaued as a league average arm. That’s useful but probably not what many fans had in mind. Then Rodón dealt with a series of injuries that called his future into question. He landed on the 60-day injured list each season from 2018-20, missing time with shoulder and elbow issues. When healthy enough to pitch over the last two seasons, he was unproductive, tossing 42 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball.
Those struggles even led the White Sox to cut ties with Rodón temporarily. Chicago non-tendered him last winter rather than offer him an arbitration salary that would’ve cost a bit more than $4MM. He spent a good portion of the offseason unsigned before returning to the South Side on a $3MM guarantee in late January. Even at such a low price point, the Rodón reunion looked like a questionable decision given his health woes and recent underperformance. In retrospect, it has proven to be a masterstroke by general manager Rick Hahn and the front office.
Rodón earned a spot in the starting rotation to open the year. He’s stayed healthy to this point and been nothing short of incredible. Rodón has worked to a minuscule 2.31 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He has struck out a career-high 36.1% of batters faced, a mark that trails only Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow among the 146 pitchers with 50+ innings pitched. Rodón’s also fourth among that group (behind deGrom, Burnes and Max Scherzer) in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and SIERA (2.82). The big lefty earned a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career in recognition of that strong work.
Unsurprisingly, Rodón’s featuring the best raw stuff of his career. His fastball is averaging 95.9 MPH this season, a marked increase over his 92-94 MPH range in recent years. Rodón actually first experienced a velocity spike during a couple of relief appearances at the end of last season, but it wasn’t clear whether he’d be able to maintain that with a starter’s workload. He has so far, with no indication of slowing down.
He’s also added a bit more life on the heater at the top of the strike zone, and he’s throwing his slider with increased velocity. Both offerings have been plus, but it’s his fastball that has become almost unhittable. Rodón has generated a league-leading 147 whiffs on four-seamers this season, per Statcast. (His 17.1% swinging strike rate on the offering is tied for third among the 68 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fastbals). In 2018 — his most recent season of more than seven starts — batters hit .257 and slugged .422 off Rodón in at-bats ending with a four-seamer. This year, they’re hitting .180 and slugging .275 against the pitch.
It’s only been three months, but Rodón has performed at an ace-caliber level to this point. He famously threw a no-hitter against the Indians in April, and he’s had an additional seven starts in which he’s allowed three or fewer hits. Rodón has struck out eight or more batters in thirteen of his fifteen appearances, and he’s shown no obvious ill effects from the league’s foreign substance crackdown. In all likelihood, 2021 will mark his heaviest workload in five years, so he’ll need to continue to prove he’s capable of performing at a high level as his innings total piles up.
The White Sox are highly likely to win the AL Central, and Rodón has put himself in what appears to be a very strong future playoff rotation also including Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and one of Dylan Cease or Dallas Keuchel. He’s in line to again reach free agency this winter, where he’ll be one of the youngest and most productive starting pitchers on the market. There’s no question he’ll fare quite a bit better this time around.
Happy birthday, Lucas Giolito!
Always knew he had it in him. Stay healthy and Rock on, Rodon.
Going to be interesting to see how they handle his innings. TLR is old school, but if they over do it that’s gonna be a bad look.
He’s on a one year deal and on a pace to price himself out of the White Sox’s future plans. They’re gonna ride that wagon ’til the wheels fall off.
@Steve I hear what you’re saying but this is a homegrown guy who’s finally healthy, has put it together and is still young. It’s time to stop cheaping out and pay the cost to keep him.
1/2 a season of a good performance means it’s time to pay the cost to keep him?
So Ironh, you really think Uncle Jerry is gonna ‘stop cheapin out’, lol lol lol.
I doubt he prices himself out of the Sox plans, at this point Id almost pay him more than I would Giolito in that he looks more like ‘Ace’ material than Giolito has looked. However, while he is having a great season, he has a history of injuries (and catastrophic ones at that) and the season is only half over. I think it really depends on if he feels comfortable in Chicago or if he will get blown away by a deal from another club, but given his history I cannot see any team overpaying him for this 1/2 of a season (even if it turns out to be a whole season of good performances).. Well actually I can see the White Sox doing it over all teams… and then him getting hurt for 1/2 of the contract length..
There is no way I’m signing Rodon to a long-term extension or pay him more than Gio.
I’m a fan, and happy for him, but there is no way I’m counting on him remaining healthy for more than another year.
Give him the Qualifying Offer. I’m certain he signs it, because no team will want to surrender a pick for him.
If he stays healthy and his stats look the same at the end of the year, a team will 100% sign him despite the qualifying offer. You are flat out wrong
100% with you Max until that last sentence. IF Rodon remains healthy and effective, Boras will get a team to take a big leap of faith, especially if he shines in postseason. Maybe 4/100+ with an opt out after 2yrs…..or a larger $ version deal structured like he did for older Keuchel with longevity concerns. In Rodon’s case 3/75 guaranteed, where a 4th yr for 25 mil “vests” if he meets minimum # of IP in the 2nd and 3rd seasons of the deal.
Any team that gives him more than a two year deal is asking for trouble. And I don’t think it will happen. Boras doesn’t always win.
I honestly think the QO is as good as he will get.
If they are not traded in these next couple weeks, AAA starters like Lambert and Lopez can eat up some innings down the stretch to give Rodon/others some rest…..if the division lead is still strong.
If Lambert or Lopez are starting for this club, the Sox are in real trouble… ‘Garbage time’ or not.
Not true
Michael Kopech would be first in line to assume a potential 6th starter role in order to ‘rest’ the other pitchers ahead of the postseason. Kopech has already assumed the opener role in addition to being a weapon out of the White Sox bullpen. His innings have been well managed up to this point with the additional ‘aid’ of a minor hamstring injury that kept Kopech from pitching during the entire month of June. It behooves the White Sox to continue stretching Kopech out during the second half as an added insurance policy for their rotation down the stretch and into the playoffs. It’s better to have Kopech ramped up for extended work. If the rotation remains healthy he can always continue on as a strategic weapon out of the bullpen in late September and October.
Yeah he’s gone, gone, gone after this season so they’ll ride him like the Brewers rode Sabathia back in that one summer. He gone!
I have to disagree with you that Rodon is gone, gone, gone. Simply because he has said numerous times he wants to stay in Chicago. He even passed on 2 other clubs this past offseason which we’re offering him more money. Only way he leaves is if a team offers him 4 years or more on that contract which will be a huge risk for anyone given his injury history.
Almost every potential free agent says that, don’t kid yourself-he gone.
and yet many FA stay with their clubs..
and more do not
The ol’ he likes his town line aye….
He will get a QO from WS, decline it, and someone will surely offer him north of a 100. 4/5 seasons at 20/25 per is a lock and if boras is his agent he could get much more. He’s better than half the leagues ace today and 20/25 mil is going rate for a legit #2/3 starter.
I hate guys blowing up in a contract year and love the end of first round compensation for loosing a stud to FA. That being said – WS should keep him and pay him. There time is now and he seems to turned a corner. 5 years 125 mil should keep him on board.
No canary, ‘He gone’ because Reinsdorf doesn’t like to pay fair value – unless he gets taxpayer assistance.
@ncaachumpillini
You crack me up, because if Rodon had 2 years left in arbitration, you’d be the first one to scream “fluke” and “one-year wonder”.
But your troll comment does have merit, because we’re talking about Boras finding a new stream of revenue. Since Rodon won’t take the hometown discount the Sox will offer (nor should he), Boras is going to strangle that cash cow for every last dime.
Why shouldn’t Rodon take a home town discount? He has already taken millions for not playing.
@Prunella Vulgaris
Because, not knowing what the future holds, this might be his only chance at a big pay day.
Try convincing Boras that Rodon should take a hometown discount. I’m sure Boras would be happy to give his opinion on that matter.
Random Trevor Bauer post.
This is what the White Sox expected from Rodon when they drafted him.
A few unfortunate injuries derailed much of that plan but I am glad to see him not only playing and healthy, but also living up to his potential, even if it is only for this season.
Yea he would have those flashes of brilliance in games and be phenomenal, only to get lit up the next day. They way Dylan cease pitches reminds me of that too just now injuries thankfully.
I’d love it if he signed a 4 year deal with the Red Sox next season.
Meh, following the sox since they called rodon up, high expectations, think Aaron Nola, but mostly disappointed.
Yeah, while stellar so far this season, its only 1/2 a season and he has had two to three seasons of bad injuries.I love what Rodon is doing now, but just waiting for that other shoe to drop…
He’s the ultimate gamble next season in free agency. If he keeps up his productivity throughout this year, some team is going to overpay for his services in free agency. Given his young age, he could possibly get a 5/$100M+ deal from a desperate team. Not sure if the White Sox would be willing to match such an offer.
I’m thinking Zach Wheeler range is what he’ll go after. ~5/118
It should also be noted that the White Sox topped the Phillies bid for Zack Wheeler, offering a 5yr/$120MM FA contract. Wheeler chose Philadelphia based on family/geographical preferences.
I’m not convinced Carlos Rodon will receive a comparable FA proposal from any MLB team but do believe the White Sox will be in the running to retain him. If he continues to pitch well and remains healthy he also figures to be tagged with a QO which could affect his market, dependant on what transpires with CBA negotiations following the season. Rodon also has a young family now and both he and his wife are happy in Chicago. Perhaps Rodon will take a page out of Wheeler’s book and remain in Chicago for similar reasons.
Another potential factor is that Rodon has strong roots as a Cuban/American (lavidabaseball.com/white-sox-carlos-rodon/). Obviously the White Sox have that factor working in their favor as well.
Another factor is the chance to keep working with Katz. Had he gone elsewhere, who’s to say he would have gotten his mechanics fixed or be this good? Maybe he says, “So long and thanks for all the fish!” but that kind of help does mean a lot to some guys. Winning a title with the club wouldn’t hurt, either.
Nobody in their right mind will sign him for five years, due to stated injury history. That said, if he finishes this year as he started it,I can see him getting 3 years and $90M. I’m hoping it’s from the Palehose.
I think that AAV is high. Somewhere in the $24M range is more likely. He’s done this for exactly one year; before, his numbers were pedestrian, at best.
I think when Rodon becomes a FA, it will depend on if he wants to win a WS, or wants a money grab, as I doubt he’ll get both. With Chicago, as abhorrent as their record is against teams that are over .500 they should just get better next season, and that should factor into Rodon’s decision if he wants to be on a contender.
Get better next season? How about 2021 with Eloy Jimenez returning to the lineup in a matter of days or at most a week. Luis Robert has also resumed baseball activities in Arizona and is looking at his own minor league rehab assignment shortly. Yasmani Grandal is also expected back in late August or early September which should be enough time for him to ramp things up for the postseason. Finally, the White Sox seem to be involved in more trade talks than most any other contender leading up to the July 30th deadline. It would be no surprise to see them upgrade 2B, the bullpen and perhaps even their outfield and catching depth in the coming days and weeks. All of this would go a long way in making the White Sox the favorites to represent the AL in the 2021 World Series.
Plus. Vaughn has hit .300 over the last month. Engel has a chance to really make an impact if he can stay healthy.
Yeah, get better next season The Sox have to perform better against over .500 clubs, otherwise it does not matter if they kick the hell out of teams like Detroit or Baltimore all season. Not if they get destroyed in the first round of the playoffs. Honestly, if people are really thinking ‘Well if they just had Eloy and Robert all would be well’ they are deluding themselves as both are streaky hitters and free swingers, plus both are liabilities in the OF (I mean Eloy hurt himself how many times in the field and Robert let a ball bounce off of his coconut from crying out loud), the Sox pitching also has looked lost at times against better than 500 clubs as well. The Sox are still missing something against those clubs. I think part of it is Giolito is not as good as people want to prop him up to be and Cease is Jekyll and Hyde (and more hyde against good clubs). I think if Kopech joins the rotation then that is a HUGE step up as I think he is immediately the ace of this club, but unless the Sox sign Lynn next season they will be missing another piece to be in a trio of good pitchers. Giolito is not an ace (at least he has not shown me he can be one.. He is a good #2 at best). I guess if Rodon can stay healthy and stays with the Sox and performs like he has, maybe that is the third guy? Crochet? I see him either in the Bullpen again or suffering through TJS at some point next season so I’m not counting on him. If they get Adam Frazier? Maybe, as while I like Garcia and Mendick they are not measuring up to even average production at 2nd. Could the Sox pull out a miracle this season? Sure, but so far they have not risen to the occasion against good teams, and there are a lot of ‘but if this and thats’ going on and it should not for a team that supposedly should be in the WS this season.
I was hoping for more of an analysis of his market. He’s pitching like an ace but also has an extensive injury history. If he was on another team I’d objectively say he isn’t worth the gamble, but since he’s on my team and homegrown, I’d love to see them roll the dice. He’d be a great guy to skip starts or do whatever else you need to do to make sure he’s ready for the playoffs every year.
The four primary reasons for Carlos Rodons’ 2021 success:
1-Good health.
2-New pitching coach Ethan Katz.
3-Newfound command of his fastball. Untypical of most power pitchers, Rodon had always commanded his elite slider better than the fastball. He now has two wipe-out offerings along with a much improved changeup.
4-A personal wake-up call when Rodon was non-tendered by the White Sox last December. Instead of feeling sorry for himself, he took the bull by the horns and improved both his physical and mental conditioning. The physical part was a bit easier being well beyond his shoulder and more recent TJ surgeries. The mental part was aided by the fact that he also had a young family to support. Rodon has a two-year old daughter and a son who was born this past January shortly after he was non-tendered.
5. He’s in a contract year
3 is mostly due to 1 and 2.
Couldn’t he be offered a qualifying offer? Wouldn’t mind overpaying for 1 more yr of control, plus other teams might balk at losing a pick if they were to sign him to a multi yr deal.
Future ace of the white sox. Earlier his year I was really hoping he threw a perfect game. Shame it got killed by a hbp. Even as a cubs fan. I hope the white sox lock him up. They have a ton of money on the books. Not sure they can give him what he’d ask for.
It won’t be easy being a Boras client.
Not really that much. After next year, both Keuchel’s and Abreu’s deals are done. They could go over for a year and then wait for the relief pretty easily. Most of the core young guys are on team-friendly extensions or the early phases of their rookie deals.
Oh really, Sox “have a ton of money on their books”? You cannot be a math major or an economist lol.
Always been a fan. Glad he is doing well.
But there is no way I give him anything more than the QO next season with his history if I’m Hahn.
Even after next season, if he’s solid, I’d probably let him walk as opposed to offering a long-term extension.
@maximumvelocity
I agree, offer him the QO. I’d focus more on keeping Lynn than Rodon. I love what Rodon’s done so far this season, and I hope he continues it all the way until the end, but I’d let another team give him the big deal Boras will want to squeeze a GM for this coming Winter.
Totally 100 percent agree on the QO. I love the story and Rodon has been amazing, but he hasn’t gotten through the season yet first of all. If he does, without tailing off a lot toward the end, they still can’t ignore the past 5 years with his injury history. Lynn is far more solid for that reason, so I agree they should try and keep him if they try for either.
Qualifying offer is $18.9 million offer him 2/40 see if he takes it.
I doubt he takes 2/40. 2/50 might get it done. If he wants a longer deal, I’m not sure the AAV stays that high, and it’s hard to imagine him getting 4-5 years, unless a couple of those are team options.
Carlos Rodon was looked at as an elite pitcher when the White Sox drafted him. Unfortunately like most college pitchers who were overused by their coaches Rodon dealt with injuries that should have been addressed with years ago. However, when the Sox were trying to compete with that pitching staff led by Chris Sale when Rodon was drafted where he was brought up too quick without rest and a little more development before pitching at the MLB level. Rodon was due for Tommy John surgery two years before he had it done but it was decision by him and the White Sox not getting it done earlier on in his career.
There is a good chance that Rodon stays with the White Sox after this season. Hahn is loyal to players he drafted and may work out a four to five year deal with Rodon to stay with the White Sox after this season.
Your Carlos Rodon injury narrative is not entirely accurate. Rodon was dealing with other health issues well before his eventual 2019 TJ surgery.
Per: yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/carlos_rodon_the_slow_…, “A sprained wrist in 2016, biceps bursitis in 2017, shoulder inflammation when he returned in 2017 that bled into the 2018 season, and then Tommy John surgery that ended his 2019 season after just seven starts. It’s been a rough road since Rodon made his debut.” (The article’s author and original post where courtesy TC Zencka and MLB Trade Rumors).
Rodon’s previous arm injuries might have contributed to his eventual UCL procedure but to suggest that he needed TJ surgery two years before the actual operation is blatantly false. Frankly, I was more concerned with his numerous shoulder issues and resulting surgical procedures than with his eventual TJ operation. You might recall that John Danks had years of shoulder issues that he was never able to fully rebound from before his eventual retirement.
All of those injuries Rodon dealt with early in his career were signs of potentially having Tommy John surgery. Rodon’s main pitch was his slider and all of that torque on his delivery which caused some shoulder issues. Same thing happened to Chris Sale!
John Danks tore his rotator cuff! Danks never had Tommy John surgery. Danks was a hard throwing fastball pitcher which caused that injury and he was never the same after getting that surgery.
More false narrative. John Danks was not “hard throwing fastball pitcher”. The velocity on his four-seam fastball was very average as an amateur and pro before his shoulder issues. His most effective pitch was a cutter that lead a lot of ground balls when it was right and he was healthy Danks also had a decent changeup. He was a bulldog on the mound but had to rely on command, location and speed variation to be an effective starting pitcher.
Dude, Danks was a hard throwing pitcher! I watched many games when Danks was pitching where he threw the ball to get strikeouts. We can debate this all day but I use to be a huge Danks’ fan but the guy was due to tear his rotator cuff just like I told people Sale was due to get Tommy John surgery and Rodon waited a year or two late to get his done when he had arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder before he had Tommy John. In this day and age we rather see pitchers get Tommy John surgery than have a rotator cuff issue.
Aside from having average velocity at best, John Danks also had a subscapularis tear of his shoulder tendon, not a supraspinatus and infraspinatus tendon tears which is commonly known as a rotator cuff tear. Danks capsule tear was far less common and to this date has never had an MLB pitcher fully recover from it (southsidesox.com/2013/3/20/4125648/john-danks-torn…).
This is why I was more concerned with all the bicep and shoulder issues that befell Carlos Rodon in 2017 and 2018 than with his subsequent UCL injury which the majority of pitchers have rebounded from with few problems.