With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?
This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.
Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.
On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.
On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.
With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.
Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?
(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)
I’d like to see him opt out so Boston can then sign Schwarber to take his place
I think he stays. Then he accepts the QO after next season. Another $40 million over the next 2 seasons followed by free agency sounds nice for a player like JD.
Following your comment, if he opts for free agency in 2 seasons, he will be a 36 year old player. looking for a multi year, expensive contract…..while the NL going to the DH does open up opportunities, doubt at 36, that is going to work very well.
Still younger than Nelson Cruz. So maybe someone will give him a 3 year deal. Just front loaded again.
agreed, why wait and risk it in 2 years at 36. If he thinks he’s a lock to get the QO, then only risking just over a million now to get a multi year contract offer. Worth that risk
He’s younger than a guy who is very special for his age, he’s not your average 40+ year old..
There may not be a QO with the new CBA.
I agree, and I bet the Sox do too. He was off and on this season, and is clearly declining. I love him, but Kyle is a better fit now. But I don’t think JD will opt out..
Shwarber has a lot to offer but is not as consistent as JDM. Both are limited I. the field but with injuries, no reason why both can’t remain. JDM seems to be happy abd I just don’t see him opting out. I could see a DJL type deal. Given him two extra years or even three and lower the AAV a tad. Say 4 for $17.5 per?
I agree with you, as decent as Schwarber has been for the RSox, over the course of a full season he would not make up what JDM has been.
No way he opts out IMO. He’s too old to secure more than what he did as a DH-only player. Especially with all the CBA up in the air.
Yankee Clipper and Dewey – I agree Schwarber is a lesser choice than JD. The problem JD has is Cora not allowing him to hit in the heart of the order where he belongs. His value was severely damaged by Cora’s stupidity both in 2018 and 2021. JD might believe that another team would treat him better and prefer to take his chances there. I would if I were him!
Toronto for example needs a guy like JD to help with their young team. He did wonders for a young Red Sox team as far as being a teacher of how to approach at bats and how to use video to improve the team’s hitting. If I’m JD, I opt out and never look back because of Cora. I would also head to a contender like Toronto.
Schwarber needs to go too because they already have the biggest liability on defense in the majors. They don’t need a second defensive liability or an excuse to not move Devers to DH. Devers must go to DH for the good of the team, especially the pitching staff. Schwarber and JD are the front office’s rationalization for not doing the obvious move. Take the two crutches away and Devers goes to the only position he can play!!! DH!!!
An average 3B will make 12 errors a year and that’s a dozen less then Devers. Also, if you count his mishandling of balls hit that don’t count as errors it’s three dozen less base runners. That would improve the Red Sox chances of winning games significantly going forward.
No matter what happens with the CBA, JD is a legitimate power hitting DH and there are not many in the AL. Cruz in TB, Mancini in BAL, Alvarez in HOU and Ohtani in LAA. SEA, MIN and CWS could all use JD to improve their hitting. His numbers are still excellent especially when allowed to hit 3rd in a good order. Take away the distraction of having to play the field and JD has many more 80+ RBI and Runs Scored seasons left along with 30 HR seasons hitting .280 or higher. People have forgotten about the year after Papi retired and how bad things were without Papi. It was JD who turned that around and made Boston a winner. For Cora to continuously disrespect him is unforgivable. Cora needs to go and then JD can regain his elite DH stature so he has trade value that might bring back a needed SP or 3B.
I don’t believe the CBA impacts JD negatively going forward. It’s only an opportunity for expanded choices for JD.
KD,
There could also be more going on. Personally, I wouldn’t choose a CA team as COVID restrictions could always again tighten. Of course that would mean we all have bigger problems. He just seems happy to me and as you get older, priorities can change. It may not be about every last dollar at this point. To me, he’s been worth every penny. Never complains publicly, produced consistently other than the shortened bizarre season and just seems like the quiet leader the Sox have needed. My guess is his professionalism and dedication have been influential on others outside of Mookie. Regardless of what he does, I’ll be rooting for him as a fan – up to a point depending on his next team if there is one. I’m hoping there isn’t.
Dewey = I can’t tell if he’s enjoying himself like he did when Mookie and Holt were on the team. I hope whatever happens he gets a few more 100/30/100 seasons. To me, he’s the most clutch player on the team and that’s why I have always wanted him to bat 3rd.
I don’t care in a deep line up where he hits but I care more who is in front and behind him as the pitches he sees depend on part on it.
Dewey – I suggest third in the order for the exact reason you just stated and because of his late inning heroics. Batting 3rd gives him more clutch moments late in the game. In 2018, he lost so many clutch moments due to his one spot drop in the order. He led off the 9th instead of being up with runners in scoring position in the 8th. When the line-up turned over Mookie or Benny or both got on base late in the game and he drove them in to tie the game or take the lead. Then they got Pearce and the chemistry was completely disrupted thanks to Cora. JD was incredibly clutch in 2018 and people forget about it because Cora stuck Pearce in his spot in August and September.
I’m going to be somewhat of a contrarian to a lot of ways of thinking out there…
1) JD won’t want to opt out because he has guaranteed money on the table should the CBA blow up.
2) if JD opts out, the ONLY reason Boston gives a QO is because the team budget expands and the money isn’t needed elsewhere.
3) bloom isn’t likely to extend JD if he opted out because he a) prefers players with more versatility, b) has other holes to fill in the roster the money can go to, and c) everyone can see jd is trending downwards.
4) if JD opts out, and JD declines a QO, then its likely that Boston gets NOTHING when JD signs elsewhere for two reasons- a) if the QO is axed in the new CBA (because JD would wait to see if the new CBA opened the NL as DH), and b) if there was still pick compensation odds are good that the guaranteed portion of the deal is less then $50m.
He opts out. If he doesn’t he will have to deal with the QO again next offseason. Get the QO out of the way. Even if the offers aren’t big enough early on his salary is so similar to the QO that he could accept it and then hit the market as an unrestricted free agent next offseason. No reason to stay with his current contract just to get QO’d a year from now when he’s even older.
You can’t get a qualifying offer twice.
Atleast thats the current rule but doubtful the players lose that in the new negotiations
I know. That’s what I was saying. If he opts out now they won’t be able to QO him next offseason. If he doesn’t opt out they will be able to. Worst case scenario if Martinez opts out now is he ends up making a few hundred grand less on a 1-year deal to make sure no one can ever QO him again. Best case scenario is he actually makes a lot more money. He should opt out to make sure no one can ever QO him again after this season. It’s not a huge risk if the worst case scenario is he’s paying a few hundred thousand to basically buy the right to make sure he isn’t QO’d again next offseason or any other future offseason. Especially when there’s a possibility he will make a lot more money if he opts out. Low risk/high reward and even if the low risk is as bad as possible it still comes with benefits that could make it worth it.
Very good reasoning. I think you’re right.
I like the reasoning, but there is still some risk involved. What if Boston doesn’t extend a qualifying offer? Will he make that much money for 2022 somewhere else? I believe, as I’m sure the GMs do, that JD is at the apex of his statistical decline. Take Fenway from the equation, and it’s bound to accelerate.
What do you think JD will sign for if he does opt out?
If Boston doesn’t offer the QO (which I believe they will) my guess is that JD gets at least 3 years and around $50 million. He won’t have to settle for 2 years and he won’t have to settle for $40 million. That’s worst case. Probably more like $60 million. That’s a lot better than the $19 million he would get by not opting out. If JD opts out and the Red Sox don’t QO him that is a good thing for JD.
I’m not arguing that he gets that much, but I wouldn’t pay it. I’d be looking for a younger hitter with better defensive skills. Seems to be a lot of them available.
For the record, I love JD. Huge Tigers fan and happy for all of his success.
Guarantee Boston extends the QO if he opts out.
Are you sure? The CBA expires so who knows if the QO will exist then?
He’s not opting out and the Redsox wouldn’t QO him this year even if he did. And if he gets a QO next year it’s only because there’s a salary floor that some team will be forced into paying him more than he’s worth. And if he could get two QO this year and next he’ll be thankful.
@iverbure He might not opt out but if he does Boston 100% QO’s him.
Agree 100% guarantee that the Red Sox QO him for the draft pick. It’s a no brainer 100% guaranteed.
Why wouldn’t the Sox extend a QO if he opts out? The QO price is $1M LESS than what he’s due to make if he doesn’t opt out. It’s basically a gift of draft pick compensation for him leaving or saving $1M in salary to have him back. Either way a win for the team.
Do you think they’d drop the QO immediately though? Seems like that might be something they’d phase out…..
It’s not one sided though the owners will want the QO or something like it. The players may get rid of it but they will have to give something up to get it. It’s important to remember no one wins in a lockout situation but the owners are super rich and the players well they aren’t at to easy most of them and probably want there paycheck.
Only one vote matters and it ain’t any of us.
Where’s the fun in that CH!
DLC, I’m still grouchy over…well…you know. I agree with you regarding a full-time DH. With just 13 position players these days, I prefer using it as a rotating spot and otherwise have as many versatile players as possible.
Understandably, it was an interesting end to your season to say the least. Good news is there is no reason they won’t win 100 games again next year, hopefully they’ve learned some lessons on navigating through the post season
DLC, I was actually over it by the next morning. As good as the team was, the season never felt right to me. Interesting off-season coming up with all the Dodgers free agents. I anticipate something of a transitional year while being very much in the post-season mix.
How about Jeff McNeill as the Jays lefty-swinging 2B/3B? Should the Mets re-up Baez, he might be available what with Cano returning. Not a huge fan of McNeill’s personally, but if he rebounds from 2020’s disaster, he’d fill a need for the Jays. No idea what the Mets might want for him. Insert Mets FO search joke here.
I still say limit the staff to 11 in the new CBA. Pitchers who learn their craft and can develop longevity and go seven consistently will be paid big time bucks. Bring back the art of pinch hitting and double switching. Real baseball.
I like the idea, I just don’t know who would be making decisions for the Mets right now, I’m wondering they are just letting calls go to voicemail.
I’m hoping they fill 2b from with in, I think a platoon of Espinal and Biggio will be fine at 2b.
Then look at Ramirez or Chapman to fill the 3b.
I’m less concerned about the offense to be honest, even without Semien. Main concern is the rotation and bullpen, losing Ray and maybe Matz leaves a lot of innings up for grabs that they are going to need quality arms to fill. Also Ryu’s 2nd half has to be a huge concern going in to next year as well
I agree the Jays’ offense should be fine. I also get what you’re saying about Ryu. His Major League and “official” Korean numbers total nearly 2,300 innings. I have official in quotes because we don’t know how much he pitched beyond those numbers, just that he pretty much pitched year-round.
Although I’m a Dodger fan, I live on the East Coast and watch plenty of Mets games. I’m probably higher on Matz than most fans, despite seeing some of his most disastrous blow-ups. I see him as a guy who has that breakthrough season inside him, similar to what Ray just did. Bringing back both would seem to be musts, even if it means Semien leaving. Even then, they probably need another SP. Alex Wood is intriguing should the Giants not QO him. He throws lots of ground balls.
Do you live in the Toronto area? One of my favorite moments from the 2021 season was the Jays’ return home. Those players are lucky to be playing in that city in front of those fans.
I like Matz too, I probably approach him with a reasonable 2 year deal (which he will probably decline) and then offer him the QO it’s an overpay and he was hid against the AL easy pretty good this year so I expect some regression, but he’s a good number 5 starter with some upside.
I do live in Toronto and was at the home opener (I have seasons) despite the small crowd it was one of the best baseball experiences of my life.
He’d be a good fit in Toronto
Toronto needs lefties
Sounds like a good name for a band….?
Not really, he’s RH and defensively limited.
Jays need LH bats, need to plug a hole at either 3b/2b and to keep the DH empty to rotate players through
The front office has been talking about getting more left handed since before Bautista left. Clearly it’s a need but I won’t be shocked if they end up with Dickerson like upgrade only.
Grichuk to the brewers for Jackie Bradley jr makes a ton of sense. The jays get a true CF who can play half the games in CF since Springer has never played more than 89 in Cf in one season. Baseball trade values both the guys around -12. Jays lose some power off the bench with Randall but the defence and runs saved by Bradley will help the pitchers more in my opinion.
Kyle Seager on a 1 year deal could be a option. I don’t think he’s the best option obviously Jose Ramirez looks the best just don’t think it’s realistic.
So true on your first comment. We haven’t had a middle of the order left handed bat since what 2009 Adam Lind?
Don’t you think they need to do better defensively at 3b than Seager?
Also Springer has played a defensive position 130+ games in 5 of his 7 seasons since he became a full time player (excluding 2020 for obvious reasons)
Brewers don’t need or want Grichuk though
They owe us for Rowdy
He’s played 89 games in CF in one season. So Springer isn’t really a true CF if he can’t play more than 89 games in CF. Given they play on concrete his legs aren’t going to get better nor feel younger.
If they want more offence and the money is similar they probably do
Implement the DH in the NL and then put him in the middle of the Dodgers lineup.
Doubt he opts out, especially with the real possibility of a work stoppage.
Teams might be reluctant to sign if they Don’t know what the new cba brings and if there is a full season at all
Phils’ McCutchen getting more money in the buyout, Sign Martinez to play LF and a 3yr overpaid contract, kismet…DH will be in NL by 2023 anyway…
Segura hits 2 Harper 3, Martinez 4, Hoskins 5 Realmuto 6 and Bohm 7….
The DH is coming next season. Otherwise it isn’t coming for a long time.
I get what you’re saying, but the Phillies need to improve their shaky defense and Martinez would make it worse.
Leaning towards no. Baseball Trade Values has him at a -$9.6m surplus value, he is guaranteed to receive a qualifying offer if he opts out and people have been saying over the years that the Red Sox probably hope he opts out so that they can repurpose the money elsewhere but any time people say that about a player with an opt-out the player doesn’t opt out (see Price, Stanton).
I started to say no, there’s too much uncertainty right now. But I think Missed WAR brings up a good point. JD can guarantee himself unrestricted, hassle free free agency next year if he opts out this year.
And if he accepts the QO, he can guarantee himself a nice pay structure next year.
With the NL going to the DH an opt out seems likely. I think he should garner a 3/50 contract pretty easily in what will likely be his last chance at a multi year contract.
Option 2 is he loves Boston, gets his 19.75mil next year, has a great year, accepts the 19mil QO next year then maybe has enough left in the tank for a 2/30 contact after 2023.
Option 3 is he opts out, listens to offers for a few days and if he doesn’t like what he hears accept the 18.4mil QO. He loses some coin but sometimes players have to bet on himself plus he can’t get QO’d again next year.
Boras probably has an idea already who’s in and who’s out if JD were to hit the market. Meanwhile, if JD stays this year, there’s no way the Sox extend a QO to him after the 2022 season. Sure, you’d like to have a draft pick in return for him signing elsewhere, but I doubt the Sox under the current administration would take a chance on JD accepting another 18/19MM QO. As one commenter pointed out, the QO might not exist in its present form by then, but you have to go with what you know. So, with a QO out of the plans for the 2022 post-season, I think JD becomes a strong trade candidate (given a decent season) at the trade deadline, ensuring that the Sox get something in return for his departure.
Wish he would opt out but it doesn’t make any sense that he would. See Jason Varitek.
Voted no. DHs, even the best ones, don’t get payed $20,000,000 per year anymore and certainly not multi year deals either. Look no further than Nelson “Boomstick” Cruz.
Yeah people on here don’t seem to have very good memories.
It is expected that there are 15 more suitors for his services, and not one of them has a DH. They have players that might be DHs, but might be and “are” are different things.
Very few of those 15 teams would be in on Martinez. Some are rebuilding, have payroll constraints, or have more pressing needs. There are also teams that don’t need a full-time DH due to roster depth. I seriously doubt the Dodgers or Braves would be in the market for a full-time DH. Guys like Chris Taylor who can play multiple positions are seen as more valuable than someone who doesn’t have a fielding position.
I sure hope he doesn’t
I guess he could opt out and get about $1M less next year by taking the QO and getting it out of the way…but he would be leaving $1M on the table. I can’t see him rejecting a QO because I doubt someone would give up draft picks to sign him at age 34. I guess the best scenario for JD would be for him not to opt out and then get traded during the year which means no one could give him a QO after next season.
So long JD, thank you for the ring. I can see the sox letting him walk and bringing in Correa. Move X to 2B
Even the biggest anti-Astros people are becoming bullish on Correa. To me, this free-agent market is Correa…gap…then everyone else. It wouldn’t surprise me if that gap widens by Thursday morning.
I went “no” based strictly on the CBA uncertainty and when he has to make his decision. However, I can see a lot of merit to the suggestions here that he opts out, immediately accepts the QO and has one more chance at a multi year contract.
I don’t think he will but I must admit I kind of hope he does so we can resign Schwarber.
If he doesn’t, it’s not necessarily a bad thing. It is a good problem to have and we may resign Schwarber regardless.
I really think Dalbec might be the one on the move but it all depends on JD opting and whether we resign Schwarber.
pwndroia – Why down on Dalbec? Faster start to his hitting career than Devers and a tall 1B who is improving his defense which is light years better than Devers. Schwarber and JD need to go to get Devers to DH. With all that money a player like Story could be gotten to play 3B. With the leftover money they could get a closer.
No team needs more than ONE full time DH and Devers needs to be that single DH for the Red Sox. Anything to make that happen will improve the team.
Seriously, why so down on a kid who has done so well in just 500 at bats? To me, he has Tony C type upside.
Option 4; JDM opts in. Sox pick up a portion of his salary let’s say half. Then he’s traded for young talent. One year of JDM for one year at 10m would be very appealing. If Bloom was willing to pay for Ottavino to gain a prospect then why not this angel? TV he monetary savings could be put into Schwarber or a veteran pitcher. There is nothing that says Sox have to keep him once he opts in. And if CBA adds DH to the NL then the Sox have more possible partners. JDM has to keep this in mind if he decides to opt in.
Ham – The sign and trade makes sense but picking up a portion of his contract is financial suicide. Bloom is incredibly stupid when it comes to finances so lets hope any sign and trade doesn’t include buy downs because buy downs reduce the total available payroll if the plan is to stay under the cap. Bloom already reduced payroll by $16M with his Price debacle, no reason to put the team at any bigger disadvantage than that.
With the need to move Devers to DH maybe BOS could trade JD for Liam Hendricks. That would clear money and solve the closer problem. CWS would still have Kimbrel and their young arms like Bummer. That frees up Devers to move to DH. Then they can sign Story to play 3B to replace JD’s bat and it leaves close to $50M to get a #3 SP and depth.
If he doesn’t opt out , he’s very tradeable.
Then he’s opting out
No chance he opts out he simply wouldn’t make as much money on a different deal. His defense is horrendous and last time I checked teams don’t like to pay $25 million a year for a DH. I’m sure Boston would be fine if he opts out, they could easily find somewhere else to spend that $20 or so mill. I’m not hating on him I think he’s a good hitter but it ends with good hitter. Also if he does opt out I wouldn’t turn around and give Schwarber that money either. He’s a player I would have to see another good year from before I give a big contract to. His track record before last season is spotty at best.
Maybe he doesn’t get $20MM annually. But perhaps he gets $45MM for 3 years.
I kind of hope he does. Most Sox fans don’t seem to realize he was pretty underwhelming outside of a monster April. He had an OPS of almost 1.200 in April and then a little over .800 the rest of the season. Not exactly great for a $20 million DH.
I think he stays. And even if he is saddled with the QO next winter he probably accepts it. Even with the DH possibly coming to the NL free agency is not kind to players in their mid-30’s. I would like to see them find a way to keep both Martinez and Scwarber but i realize the logistics over a full season would be tough unless they move Kike back to 2B full time with Verdugo in CF and Schwarber in LF.
Has mlbtr considered asking jd Martinez this question directly?
“While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016.”
So he’s just bad in RF. Perhaps he can play LF.
Wait… there are actually people who think the Sox wouldn’t QO him if he opts out? The QO is for less $ than he would be opting out of. If he opts out the QO would be automatic.
I voted no. While someone offering him $45M/3 might be enough to get him to opt out, who in the NL would do so? You need a team that needs hitting, does not have a DH candidate, that will likely be in contention, and has no competing needs. That might be -0-.
OTOH, Boras probably knows more about the CBA negotiations than is public. It’s entirely possible that the owners have almost no objection to adding the DH to the NL.
What AL teams would have interest? Yankees have Stanton. Angels, Mariners and Astros, I guess.
The NYY have Stanton & Voit for DH, and Gallo for LF.
The Angels have Ohtani at DH and likely Adell, Upton and Marsh for LF, plus a hole at SS and in their rotation.
The Astros have Alvarez at DH.
Seattle wouldn’t be a bad pick. They were 12th in scoring. They have a couple of young kids starting their careers, so maybe JD provides some guidance. They were 11th in OPS at the DH slot. And they rotated Torrens, Haniger and France thru the position. For the right price, it might make more sense have JD play 150 games at DH and allow those three to return to their regular positions.
I wonder if it would be a strategic move to opt out and accept the qualifying offer.
Take a small pay cut because you know if you accept the option, you’re getting the QO when you hit free agency the year after. The small pay cut will amount to being ineligible for the QO when he hits FA the following year, with the NL likely having a DH by that point and high demand. All of this could change depending on the CBA. Tricky situation for JD.
Or, maybe Bloom goes Machiavellian and lets slip that the RS won’t offer JD a QO, allowing him to opt out unencumbered by the draft pick. Good for JD, as it makes it easier for him to get a $45M/3 contract. Good for the RS since it allows Devers to move to DH and Bogaerts to move to 3B, and frees up $22M in AAV.
The we either sign Story for slightly more than JD cost, or sign Iglesias for a whole lot less than JD cost, and use the savings to go all-in on an SP and BP.
In the best of all possible worlds, JD would opt out and we’d get a draft pick. But I think we’d do pretty well just getting rid of the salary.
If he does the Sox will sign correa
move bogie to 2nd what a kick a$$ infield
Yes.
I don’t think he opts out – but I would prefer he did.
Would you prefer JD, Schwarber or Cruz?
As a Sox fan, for one year I’d stick with JD. But I’d give up a year of JD to get a few years of Schwarber.
None. The amount of dineros that JD, and maybe Schwarber, is not a whole less than maybe what Story gets. And the two values are not particularly close, imo.
Scenario 1: he opts out leaving a guaranteed $22m on the table. He hits FA at age 34 with a pretty good season just finished. He’s not saddled with a QO, but without a CBA in place the market is slow and unsettled.
Scenario 2: if he exercises his option and has a similar performance to his career average, the Sox would likely extend a QO. If he accepts, then that’s another $18-20mm on top of the$22mm in his option year. But in this case he’s entering FA two years from now, at age 36. He might pull in a 1-2 year contract, AAV around $10-12mm for his age 37-38 seasons, but that’s optimistic. This route likely nets more than $40mm, but unless he’s raking at 38, probably not more than $70mm
Scenario 3: He opts in and has a career average year or better, and then rejects the QO. Now he’s a FA at age 35, but weighed down by a draft pick. Maybe he gets 3-4 years at AAV $12-16 mm. Total between $58mm and $70mm.
Scenario 4: he opts in and his production declines and no QO is extended. Under these facts, even without a QO, of course he’ll be worse off as a FA in 2022 than he would be in 2021.
Finally, scenario 5: the new CBA eliminates the QO system. He opts in and has a career average year. He hits FA at age 35, and can pull in 3-4 years AAV $15-20mm. That’s $67-$100mm total.
So the first question is whether he thinks the new CBA will continue the QO system. If not, then I think it’s a no brainer to opt in and bet on himself to have a career average year or better.
But if there’s possibly a QO after 2022, it gets a lot harder because opting in and performing well basically amounts to opting in for two years. Unless he really has a career year in 2022, rejecting a QO would be a mistake. So he’d almost certainly be hitting FA in 2023, and the risk of declining performance gets higher at that point. If insiders know that the CBA will continue to include the QO, I think he’s more likely to opt out now and hit FA younger and without one.
bcjd – Scenario 1 – If JD opts out he leave $19.35M on the table. $22M is the luxury tax charge since his contract was front loaded.
If JD opts out BOS can make a QO for $18.4M which is roughly $1M less than he would be paid in 2022. If he takes the $1M hit in pay then he improves his status for free agency after 2022. BOS can’t QO him two years in a row so his free agency will be very attractive to other teams in 2023.
If JD rejects the QU this off season then the draft pick attached to him will make him far less attractive in the open market and it may cost him much more than $1M in 2022. With the uncertainty of the CBA, his smart move is to opt out and to take the QO so at the end of 2022 he’s a free agent with no QO hanging over his head. Because Boston treats it’s players poorly during contractual negotiations JD needs to plan on being screwed with the QO either this off season or next off season. That’s why, it makes sense to take the $1M hit in 2022 and look for a better deal in 2023. Betting on himself while protecting himself from the Red Sox front office screwing him is in his best interest.
If JD opts in he screws himself for 2023 unless he wants to finish his career in BOS for less money than he would make on the open market.
I don’t believe they can make a QO if he opts out. I may be wrong.
I stand corrected. I see in the column reporting that he opted in that had he not a QO was possible.
So my evaluation of the possible choices was based on an error, and should be disregarded.
JD will be back in Boston. Sox wouldn’t sign Schwarber, rather Triston Casas will be called up to play 1B or 3rd (And Devers to 1st)
Casas hasn’t played 3rd since 2019, so I doubt he’s going back. And he will be a 2023 player in any case. He only has 33 ABs at the AAA level, and managed to commit 8 errors at 1st in only 612 innings. If he is a reliable 1B by 2023, I’d be real happy.
All good points! I don’t think the Sox make a big deal with Schwarber, rather a 1 year deal with a Travis Shaw type of player. With Casas and Blaze Jordan in the pipeline I don’t think Schwarber makes sense for a long term deal (which I think Schwarber can get elsewhere). Maybe we’ll see Casas later in the season in Sep??
September is my guess. One way or another, JD won’t be here in 2023. By then, they should (I hope) have Devers, Dalbec & Casas. None are really 3Bs, and I am not sure any are true 1Bs either. I’m hoping that Dalbec spends the entire winter practicing his fielding. He was drafted as a 3B, so he should be able to play 1B.
Hope he opts out & they sign Correa, move Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to DH.