Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason. Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.
We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…
Jon Gray, Rockies
Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process. It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.
It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved. While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing. This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.
Carlos Rodon, White Sox
Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year. However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.
With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history. It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball. The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health. As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.
Anthony DeSclafani, Giants
One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform. With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.
There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago. Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.
Rockies being cheap. Kind of sounds like Gray was insulted by a multi year offer from the Rockies and will be leaving anyway. Hard to find pitchers that are halfway decent at all though in the high altitude. Might have cost themselves a draft pick compensation.
Watch Gray sign with San Francisco and win the cy young
@Lars you took the words out of my mouth. I was expecting the Giants or the Yankees to make a run at him. He’s definitely a talented pitcher and seems like he would blossom away from the Rockies. I’m not sure why he was talking about staying there.
I think he’s just tired of losing and didn’t want to resign.
@Mystery Because it’s better to talk up your team like a professional than sound like a pissed off diva.
Supposedly, Cashman has coveted him for years. Not quite a Gerrit Cole level infatuation, but Yankee fans have been hearing about him for years. & Cash seems to have a bit of an affinity for CO players. I would love to see Gray (or any of these pitchers for that matter) added to the Yanks rotation.
Gray’s actually been considerably better at Coors Field than on the road, both for his career and (especially) recently. He’s an odd case. He throws a hard but very low spin fastball, has no curve that he uses very much (although it’s not bad) and a blow away slider. His command comes and goes. He’s not exactly the prototype of what non-altitude teams are looking for.
The qualifying offers wouldn’t have kept him from signing or not signing. It was only to offer cushion to Rox to recoup draft picks. ⚾️
Cashman was not infatuated with Cole enough in 2017 to give the Pirates more than the average group that they got for him from the Astros..
That was a Pirates decision on what they valued.
It was my understanding that they wanted Andujar and Frazier and Cashman would not go for it.
That’s the scuttlebutt, @Mendoza.
Which – at that particular moment – I thought was entirely defensible. In retrospect; yeah, not so much.
Hindsight is always 20 20.Both young players were highly esteemed by many teams and not only the Yankees.The Pirates would have gotten two good young players instead of the one good young pitcher and decent infielder that they got.The point is that Cole was a potential stud as he had shown in Pittsburgh and young players are prospects that may or may not come to fruition.Every team can use a top of the rotation pitcher,and they would not have had to pay the exorbitant amount of money for two years for him that they are now.The Yankees always have good teams and for the two years he may very well have put them over the top.Everybody rips Neil H for the Archer trade,and to some extent the Cole trade,but otherwise his trades had generally recently been very good.But sometimes it is the trades that you do not do that come back to bite you,at least in a hypothetical way.Such is the life of a ML GM.
A lot easier to pitch there than Colorado. Says more about the team than his talent really. Rockies always have pitchers who are only good for a few years then flame out.
I find all of these players not getting QO’s surprising. The White Sox believe Kimbrel is worth $16M but Rodon isn’t worth $18.4M? The Rockies really needed to keep Gray because chances are his replacement will not be able to handle pitching in Coors field. Descalfani seemed worth it, too. It seems like the only smart move was declining Kershaw. If Kershaw is back to his old self next season it was a bad idea to not QO him but I am guessing his forearm injury is going to hamper his ability a lot more than what has been led on this far. It always surprises me when borderline players don’t receive a QO. I’m not a fan of massive contracts but if a player is even close to being worth the QO I would pull the trigger. They usually decline it anyway so it’s just free draft pick compensation. If they don’t decline it then you keep a pretty good player and even if he busts it’s only for one year. It’s not like it will ruin your franchise. If Conforto is worth the QO all these guys are too. I would much rather pay a guy more for a short period of time than have him dragging down team payroll for the better part of a decade. It would be nice if Freddie Freeman took a page out of the Acuna/Albies playbook and just accepted the QO to take one for the team. It would give the Braves a lot more money to play with and help them build a stronger roster to try and repeat next season. Freeman would obviously be playing for a discount but it would only be for 1 year and then next offseason he would become a totally unrestricted free agent so it’s not like it would be a long term commitment for him. That will never happen though. It would be a nice statement to the team though. If Acuna can do it and Albies can do it Freddie could do it too and show the players he’s willing to do what’s best for the team and make a sacrifice so they can add more players and keep this championship thing going as long as possible.
Kershaw’s a completely unique case. He’s obviously (to my eye anyway) not going anywhere, and the Dodgers will offer him a big but short contract and they’ve probably all but negotiated it already. Giving him a QO would be meaningless and possibly insulting to him.
Yeah, offering a guy a one year guaranteed contract worth 18.4M is really insulting.
I think you’ll see the Giants sign DeSclafani to a three-year contract at about $12-13M/yr.
Kimberly doesn’t have the physical issues Radon has
Rox aren’t cheap; they’re misunderstood.
Gray not that great. The numbers aren’t there. You can blame it on Coors, but his numbers were quite a bit worse on the road this year. He’s a 3 at best, or more like a 4 in a good rotation. Risky contract, whoever signs him. Maybe a change of scenery does him good.
Check those numbers again, and this tme make sure you look at the park adjusted ones. They’re quite good, and he’s young and has never had arm problems. Ain’t too many SP’s out there on the market with 16 K games on their resumes.
Gray and Story are heading to the Cardinals.
LolRockies
Lol
Red Sox should sign Gray I think he’d be a good fit
Yankees with Matt Blake could be an awesome match. He worked wonders with their pitching this past season.
I wouldn’t pay DeSclafini $18 million for two years let alone one so I’m not surprised the Giants wouldn’t either they seem like a rather smart organization. People need to understand that one decent year doesn’t mean it will be the norm for certain players. You have to look at the player’s body of work and this guy’s doesn’t add up to $18 million for one season. Odds are he’s injured for a good stretch during the season.
I’d do 2 for 18, but yeah, I’d have been really surprised to see him get a QO.
The Rockies keep Gray & Story at the deadline, then don’t offer Gray a QO – poor choices.
Their management decisions are dumbfounding. It is hard to see what they are trying to achieve with these moves.
As a Pirate fan, I know that my team is cheap. But maybe that’s better than having my team be stupid like the Rockies seem to persist in being.
I’m a Cleveland fan and I know my team is cheap too. But I’d rather they be cheap and smart than just straight up dumb.
Yes, great home record though so wouldn’t want to piss off the fans
Their fans truly deserve better. The Rockies are perennially top 10 in attendance.
They win nearly 2 out of 3 homes games. Believe me, the fans in Denver go home happy most of the time.
As a Denver resident, we also get mad watching from home.
The ownership and its crony front office is the worst in baseball.
I would put Avi Garcia on this list.
@sleepy. I guess you could but Avisail has underperformed for years until 2021 outside of a nice 2017 season. Big guy like him should be 30-40 homers a year automatic. Heard him compared to Miguel Cabrera when he first came up (probably because of the similar body size). Large guys usually just get larger and slower as they age. Probably didn’t help his value having a bad NLDS against the Braves (2 for 15 along with 8 strike outs).
If the majority of his seasons were ok then he had a great one, common sense would say the outlier is the great one.
Agree McGriff. Another Danny Santana/Dominic Brown type, who had *1* year of decent play, then below average, or poor the rest of the time.
Wanted to take a chance last year on Carlos Rodon, it will be considerably more expensive this year. If the Yankees can cover their needs at CF, 1B, SS, and catcher and have money for a starting pitcher would still take a chance.
Yeah, he’s great when he pitches – that’s the problem. Persistent health issues. Chi didn’t want him to return and tie up $18MM for an injured pitcher, regardless of how good he was.
I could see why teams would want him at the right price, but not for any long-term deal.
I think he gets 2 yrs with a team option for a 3rd. He was a frontrunner for the CYA before fatigue got him, but if there’s no underlying injury and it’s just due to years of low work, then he’s a potential steal.
Pitcher with an injury history? Sounds like Cashman’s kinda guy.
“Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver”
Hang onto to that one, you’re gonna need to use it a few more times.
Why the he** didn’t the Rockies trade Gray? Something must’ve happened between him and management after July 31st.
It makes more sense if you just accept the idea that the Rockies front office has no effing clue what they are doing.
Well, he had a bad second half. That’s one thing. But also the rumor is that they told him to get the best offer he can on the market and the Rox will match it. They’re an unusual front office. Very cognizant of the players’ best interests (far more so than the team’s, which is what’s so frustrating to fans). But there’s no bad blood at all by all reports. Quite the opposite.
He was reportedly not happy at being offered less money than Senzatela. He said all the right things, but he’s probably gone.
@seamaholic 2 Trading him wouldn’t have stopped them from matching the best offer if that is what they plan to do.
White Sox FO must be drunk. Pick up Kimbrel, but not give a QO to Rodon? If Rodon is injured, yeah, it’s wasted. More likely, though, is he rejects the QO, gets 2 yrs at $20M per, and the Sox get a pick. If money is already this tight, any pipe dreams of Semien can be dismissed.
Huh? Who would turn down a 1 year 18.4 million dollar guarantee to play a second year for 1.6 million? In what world is that likely
I believe the poster is positing that it’s likely that had Rodon been offered a QO he would have overestimated his market, rejected it, then would have had to settle for a deal in the range suggested (2/20)
You have 10 days to talk to teams before rejecting or accepting, the most likely scenario was that Rodon would have accepted the QO, which is exactly why the Sox didn’t offer him one.
Him overestimating his market by that wide of a margin does not seem likely at all
Nope, I mean that teams (over)value starting pitching so much that I think someone will offer a $20M AAV if there are no underlying injuries. That’s why I said per. Spotrac is even more bullish, at 4/$96M.
Ah ! I see now.
I’m not sure he gets that much especially with a pick attached to him, however I now see the point you’re making. Sorry for misunderstanding !
There’s no way that happens. Rodon was way too good last year for no teams to want to pay him just in the hopes he’s got one more in him. He was that good. That’s unless the White Sox know something about his health. In most cases, a borderline player not getting the QO is good news for the player, but in this case it isn’t. This is a big old red flag to the 29 other GM’s, and they’ll be scrutinzing his medicals with a fine tooth and probably under bidding because of it.
I agree. This
This enables the club to attempt to sign him for perhaps 2-3 years at a more modest AAV.
Dusty, he said $20 million per!
White Sox actually did Carlos a solid here. Untethering him from draft pick compensation. This could preserve good will between the parties, like an NFL team not utilizing the franchise tag. Also think maybe the Sox are interested in him but only on their own terms. 1 yr 18+ mill is substantial risk upfront, as compared with a mutually beneficial multi year deal at a lower aav. If someone wants to overpay, have at it.
I don’t think Marcus Semien is as good as people project him to be. First of all, he is already 31 years old. Secondly, since 2014, every season he’s had at least 25o ABs, his wRC+ was over 100 only twice (100 is league average). Twice in eight years isn’t convincing. He has pop in his bat and plays pretty solid defense at two positions, but a 4 or 5 year deal for a 31 year old who has had 2 good years out of nine isn’t a good idea.
Kershaw doesn’t need a QO offer because he’s probably not leaving the Dodgers anyway if he decides to continue playing.
No matter how good of a season Rodon had it ended the same as it always does with him injured. He is not worth that drastic an increase in pay.
DeSclafani definitely would have accepted the QO and could probably be signed to a multi-year deal for the same money.
The Rockies and Gray are seemingly done with eachother and they probably didn’t want to take the off-chance he would actually accept the offer
That’s what’s so funny re Gray. That is definitely NOT the case. They’re still bff’s and are publicly wanting to re=unite.
I swear that the Rockies are making personnel decisions by using a ouija board.
Hey at least they’re interesting and not just a cookie cutter like all the rich teams, or a pathetic poverty-crying mess like the poor ones. .
Every time I think they can’t be more shallow they manage to drain a little bit more out of the pool. This whole organization is incredibly inept. Ahahahahahahaha!!
@gotham. It’s really sad I’ve been to Coors Field a couple of time s in the last dozen years watching them play the Braves. Very nice stadium and I loved the huge digital scoreboard. I haven’t been back in probably 5-6 years now but it’s sad to see the front office destroying the team.
Usually kick the Braves’ asses too.. Went this year and it was beautiful.
Thanks for kicking the Braves ass this year. Seems it really helped turn their season around.
Rondon to Tigers for 4 yrs/58M. AA and Ilitch Jr are spending!
Better be one helluva physical for any team to offer more than one year with Rodon’s history of arm problems.
Tigers have enough injured SP already; they’re going to sign a horse, even if he’s a #3 or 4.
Hector Rondon? It’s these miscalculations that could cost you a jobby job.
I highly doubt he gets more than 2 years, maybe with a team option on a 3rd. Can’t really see him getting 4.
It is hard pressed to find a worse ran team across sports than the Rockies. Almost none of their big moves (or non-moves) ever make any sense.
Have you read any of the threads concerning the Mets recently?
Good point. Stiff competition.
1-It is not a good point.
2-It is not stiff competition.
Granted, I often have trouble figuring out what the Mets are doing. But the Rockheads seemingly do exactly the opposite of what should be done. There is no reason to continue to re-hash all their mistakes, but they like Gray well enough to not trade him. But not enough to give him an offer he’ll accept. But still put $40M on the table.
So what does that mean? It means that Gray’s agent is telling him his market value is a lot more than $40M. If he is confident enough to think he’s getting a lot more than $40M, then he is not accepting a QO.
And, if you really wanted to keep the guy, then offering him a QO lowers his market value, making it easier to keep him.
Or the Reds. Or the Pirates. At least the Rockies have never made a trade as bad as the Archer one, nor ever been as pathetic as the Orioles (the Rockies have actually never had 100 losses). Actually the Rox have barely made any bad trades in their history (they rarely make any trades, so …) They just march to their own drummer. They’ll likely sign Gray in the end, just because he’s so much better at Coors than elsewhere, so he’s worth more to them.
Didn’t take you long to forget about the terrible Arenado trade, or the awful Tulo trade (only forgettable because both sides washed out).
Your Rockies analysis is very poor. They’re objectively awful.
The Arenado trade wasn’t bad…the Arenado extension was awful.
Hoping the jays can land Rodon. Likely a 1 year prove he’s healthy deal. He’s already a stud but the jays staff could pitch how they worked with Ray who has a very similar repertoire to his as a reason to think he’d thrive there.
Aren’t the Jays out of the, hope someone can stay healthy and perform mode? Overpaying for Berrios definitely shows you how they are going to start valuing reliability more and more. They need a bit more of a guarantee since they really don’t have any arms in the minors ready to contribute yet.
They figure to be spending 50-60MM apparently. If Rodon is a 1year commitment in the 12-15MM range for potential ace production then you can go that route plus a 3-4 level inning eater with a track record.
This is a tricky FA class in my eyes because Ray, Matz, Kershaw, Scherzer, Gray etc. are all question marks for different reasons whether inconsistent in the past, injury history or age. No matter who you pick you can’t feel great about them being a 32 start 190IP 3.0ERA guy.
i dunno, I feel Gray isnt on the level that suggests you can easily avoid getting encumbered by the draft pick compensation. same thing I said about Matz, a decent SP market woulf make such players harmed by the draft pick. to me, Disco is more surprising, not because he’s worth it (mainly a matter of injured) as much as due to SF’s lack of locked in SP options.
Then why not trade him?
that’s a seperate question
I know so what’s the separate answer?
Always thought a Jon Gray for Byron Buxton trade would have greatly benefited COL/MIN respectively. Hopefully Gray can leave Colorado and pitch in a friendlier ballpark.
Twins would come out the loosing end of that one considering how high buxton’s ceiling is.
Rockies needed to trade him for prospects, their farm and asset management are both equally terrible
Their farm is very bottom heavy but it’s coming fast. It won’t be ranked low for long. Their low A, high A, Arizona (rookie), and DSL (rookie) league teams all won their divisions/leagues and had something like a 650 cumulative winning percentage, which is usually an excellent signal of what’s coming.
Jon Gray is a perfect example of why you don’t trade for a guy (or refuse to trade him away) just because you want to extend him. Could have gotten a top 100 prospect for his last two months of control but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
He was worth a rule5 eligible guy
1. He was worth more than that. His downtown happened after the trade deadline.
2. Even if that were true it would still beat the nothing they will now get for him.
Mets go pick up Gray, with the unsteadiness of the rotation why not get him than try to at least bring back Syndergaard
Thor is probably accepting the QO
I definitely think Jon Gray is a $20 million a year pitcher who should thrive away from Coors Field. The Rockies definitely blew it last season at the deadline by not moving him, now he will leave and they will not get anything back for him. This is definitely the type of thing that gets GM’s fired, and deservedly so.
He was better at home last season.
Has been for his career too. He’s a strange cat. Very low spin rate pitcher, a real throwback. The analytics-based teams won’t want him.
I live in Denver, so get to watch Jon Gray pitch. Always had high upside, but never put it altogether. His away numbers this year worse than home numbers. ERA 1.20 higher on the road, so Coors excuse not really there this year. I personally would not risk anything over 2-3 years with him. I also wouldn’t go over 12-13m per year. Maybe he puts it together with new team and coaches, or maybe he doesn’t. A lot of people thought Chatwood would flourish away from Coors. Didn’t happen. I think rebuilding team takes a chance on him.
Is the media all over the Rockies FO for all the bone head moves this year? Or is everyone just tuning out
Rockies don’t get much press this time of year. Broncos all the time. Honestly, people have just learned that the Rockies FO will disappoint them, so they just tune them out.
Once the Broncos season starts, the media around here don’t pay much attention to the Rockies except in their rare playoff years.
The Rockies tend to make no moves at all, rather than bonehead ones. When they finally do stuff, it usually works out OK (at least on the trade front … their free agent history is abysmal, but they haven’t done any of that either in the last few years).
Makes perfect sense that Rodon did not get a QO from the Sox. He was great for part of 2021, but still does not have the durability to count on at the end of the season for the playoffs, as we saw a few weeks ago. He hasn’t finished a full season healthy in his entire career basically. If he most likely can’t help win playoff games because he is either hurt or fatigued, there is not much point in signing him on a team aspiring to improve on its October failures the last 2 years.
Whether you sign him long term or offer the QO, you’re definitely a expecting the worst and hoping for the best given his track record. And I’m a huge fan of his. But yeah, we need guys who can pitch in October.
…he was incredibly important getting to October. They’ll need to replace that production, which was ace level when he pitched.
On the flip side, can’t ignore that the White Sox know his arm better than any team. Walking away from a one-year commitment may suggest something ominous in his medicals.
I am curious to see where he goes and how his next team manages his innings. Wouldn’t rule out the Cubs.
I think this move was also about the Sox saying “go see what’s out there, and if you decide you would rather come back we’ll talk.” It allows Rodon to explore his market to see if he can find some idiot willing to overpay him. I also think Hahn would be open to something creative contractually given both the high upside and lengthy injury history that Carlos has.
Right. And they did him a solid by not attaching the draft pick anchor to him. Rick is probably calculating that his value is more in the 15-18 range over multiple years, and banking on Carlos taking a look at the market and banking on the certainty of security and a staff that turned his career around.
The Cubs should be in that starting middle market. Rodon, Matz, Gray, DeSclafani. as they fit the need to add speed to your starting pitching. after being among the averages the slowest speed in MLB in its rotation.
Cubs should be happy they are still in the majors. They are not in the market for anything but handkerchiefs for the next free years.
Wow the power of $$$ to get an MLB club. No way should the Monforts in Colorado have a team. So mismanaged. What s the price MLB pay for these clowns to have a team. Disgraceful
The Rockies and Reds should look to the AL for how to successfully manage low-revenue teams. The Rays, A’s and Indians are competitive yearly. That would require them to invest in their front office talent.
It seems the Rockies are doing everything you know what backwards. First they give a future Hall of Fame 3rd baseman away for peanuts, then they do not trade Story, now this with Gray. If there is a team in MLB that needs to be sold and have the entire organization replaced from top to bottom it is Colorado. I can see the Pirates and Orioles winning before the Rockies.
the list is long