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Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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With MLB implementing a lockout yesterday, it will likely be some time until fans learn the fate of the sport’s presently unsigned free agents. Per the parameters of the lockout, teams are unable to contact players or make any transactions during this period. Touted by many as the best player on the free agent market, Carlos Correa will have his eventual contract delayed as well, though that doesn’t mean he won’t have his fair share of suitors when the lockout concludes. Prior to yesterday’s announcement, Mark Berman of Fox 26 (KRIV) tweeted a list of teams Correa’s camp has been contacted by at some point this offseason. The Astros and Yankees were teams already known to have reached out, but Berman adds the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves to the mix as well.

At first glance, some of these newly reported teams may seem like imperfect landing spots for a shortstop who will command a 9-figure salary. Then again, it’s hard to fault any big market team for performing due diligence on a high caliber player like Correa. It’s not presently known when these teams contacted Correa’s agent or how serious these check-ins were, but any team even passingly reported as having communications with Correa’s camp could clue fans into where the star shortstop will end up signing.

Starting alphabetically with one of the more curious fits, Atlanta concluded it’s pennant-winning season with Dansby Swanson entrenched at the shortstop position. While Swanson didn’t quite replicate his production from 2020, he did pop a personal-best 27 home runs and provided defense that was generally regarded as passable or better. The 27-year-old will enter 2022 under his last year of team control, however, perhaps creating a scenario where Correa is signed and Swanson is peddled to a team still in search of a new shortstop. Any movement from Atlanta on the Correa market would likely come after there’s resolution (or, in order to afford Correa, a breakdown) on the Freddie Freeman front.

Boston ended 2021 with a prominent name at shortstop as well, Xander Bogaerts. The 29-year-old Bogaerts continues to rate as one of the league’s more consistent run producers, winnning his fourth Silver Slugger award after a .295/.370/.493 (127 OPS+) showing. Like Swanson in Atlanta, Bogaerts may find himself in his last year of team control if he opts out of the remaining three years on his contract like he is widely expected to do. A Correa pursuit would require some infield shuffling, but would make for an imposing addition to an already strong Red Sox lineup. It would also provide cover for a Bogaerts departure while drastically increasing infield defense.

Chicago has less standing in the way of a Correa run than the previous two teams, as they have the payroll space and an acute need for more offense. Nico Hoerner projects as the current Cubs shortstop following the midseason Javier Baez trade, and to his credit he acquitted himself well to the position. As solid as the former first-rounder was through 44 games though, batting .302/.382/.369 (105 OPS+), he’s only a year removed from a 57 OPS+ showing in a similar amount of games. Hoerner is also defensively adept enough that he could slide to any number of other positions to make room for the more powerful Correa. It remains to be seen if the Cubs are willing to spend additional funds to inch back towards competitiveness or if the Marcus Stroman signing will be their signature offseason acquisition.

Lastly, LA serves as an intriguing landing spot for the All-Star Correa. Like other teams here, the Dodgers have a strong shortstop already in place— Trea Turner. The speedy Turner though can play second base, allowing second basemen Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux to operate in the utility-type roles in which they’ve grown accustomed. One question for the Dodgers front office, however, is if they’d be willing to spend upwards of $300MM on a shortstop when they just let their last superstar shortstop leave for a similarly rich contract. There’s also the 4-year-old elephant in the room, the 2017 World Series in which Correa’s Astros infamously defeated the Dodgers. It’s unlikely any still-lingering weirdness would tank mutual interest (money tends to do the most talking in free agency, after all), but it could serve as a dealbreaker in the event another team were to pursue Correa with the same amount of fervor.

Padres Have Reportedly Expressed Interest In Nick Castellanos

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Serving as one of the last free agent rumors of the night before yesterday’s lockout officially commenced, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Padres were “showing strong interest” in free agent Nick Castellanos. An important disclaimer here is that teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions during the duration of this lockout. Ultimately, it remains to be seen how strongly yesterday’s reported interest in Castellanos will persist when the transaction freeze is over. Nonetheless, this is a notable piece of insight into how San Diego may operate when they’re free to bolster their roster again.

The 29-year-old Castellanos should appeal to the Padres and a number of teams for one simple reason: he’s a very good hitter. In 138 games this past season the right fielder posted personal best offensive numbers en route to a .309/.362/.576 slash line (136 OPS+) with 34 home runs. Statcast metrics largely support the output, by virtue of how frequently Castellanos makes hard contact.

One knock on Castellanos over the years is that he’s been something of a free-swinger, waving and missing at balls outside the strike zone. Statcast numbers showed more of the same in that regard during 2021. Castellanos was able to mitigate concerns about being too much of a free-swinger in one notable respect, however, since he cut down his strikeout rate to a better-than-most 20.7%. The ability to be aggressive early in the count but avoid strikeouts is an asset that will likely give teams more confidence in the player than they had in him after a replacement-level 2020 showing.

The other well-documented knock against Castellanos has been his subpar defensive ratings over the years. Despite possessing above average speed, the outfielder continued the trend of uninspiring outfield play in 2021. Any NL team looking to add Castellanos’s bat to a lineup knows they’ll be taking a bit of a hit when he takes his glove out into the field.

Those documented shortcomings, as well as the obvious offensive upside, actually lend some traction to a Padres pursuit. San Diego is a team that clearly values contact skills— they were the 5th best team in baseball at avoiding strikeouts last season. As for the defensive side of things, San Diego (and several other NL teams) may be of the mindset that when the lockout subsides the DH will exist for all 30 teams. Stowing MLBTR’s 10th-ranked free agent at a DH spot, with occasional outfield reps, seems a perfectly reasonable move then for a team whose offense proved surprisingly middling last season. Even without the DH, it’s possible some outfield shuffling can take place to accommodate Castellanos now that incumbent left fielder Tommy Pham is a free agent.

Bloom: Red Sox Still Seeking Bullpen Help; Team Re-Signs Michael Feliz

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Teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions until the lockout is lifted, but every front office still has a plan for areas to target once they’re allowed to again add to the roster. Last night, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom met with media (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) to address the team’s priorities whenever activity resumes.

“We still would like to add more pitching,” Bloom said. “Short relievers, that’s something we have yet to address in meaningful fashion.” Bloom went on to add that the Sox would continue to be involved in the market for position players, pointing to a right-handed bat as a particular bonus in the wake of the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects.

As Bloom suggested, Boston has yet to upgrade the late-innings mix, at least directly. The Sox’s signings of James Paxton, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill figure to have trickle-down effects on the bullpen. Wacha may be better suited as a multi-inning reliever than as a traditional starter. Even if all three pitchers assume rotation roles (Paxton is expected to miss the first few months of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery), their additions could afford the flexibility for Boston to use Garrett Whitlock and/or Tanner Houck in relief.

Whitlock spent the entire 2021 season as a reliever, eventually emerging as Boston’s top late-innings arm. The former Rule 5 draftee worked 73 1/3 innings of 1.96 ERA ball with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers. Boston has expressed openness to stretching him back out as a starting pitcher — as he’d been in the minor leagues — but their rotation additions could give them comfort in keeping Whitlock in the late-game role in which he thrived.

Houck, meanwhile, is coming off an excellent season working primarily as a starter. He pitched to a 3.68 ERA with elite strikeout and walk numbers (30% and 6.2%, respectively) across 13 rotation outings. That showing would seemingly earn him another look on the starting staff. That’s still a brief sample, though, and prior scouting reports have questioned whether the righty’s low arm angle and seldom-used third pitch might give him difficulty handling left-handed batters and/or working through a lineup multiple times.

The Red Sox would surely like to keep the rotation possibility open regarding both players, particularly Houck. And both pitchers were already options for a 2021 relief corps that was fine but unspectacular. Red Sox relievers ranked 13th this past season in ERA (3.99) and 14th in both strikeout/walk rate differential (14.8 percentage points) and SIERA (3.94). After a strong start, it became a particularly problematic unit after the All-Star Break. Not coincidentally, that came alongside a second half collapse from former closer Matt Barnes, who struggled so badly after an outstanding first few months that Boston originally left him off their postseason roster.

While the free agent market moved quickly in anticipation of the transaction freeze, there are still various options available. Kenley Jansen, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin and old friends Joe Kelly and Collin McHugh each appeared on either MLBTR’s top 50 free agents or honorable mentions and remain unsigned. Craig Kimbrel is the highest-profile bullpen option available on the trade block, while David Bednar and Cole Sulser stand out among the affordable, under-the-radar options who look like speculative trade candidates.

Boston did make one depth addition in that regard. Speier reported yesterday (on Twitter) that the Sox were in agreement with Michael Feliz on a minor league deal that includes an invitation to big league Spring Training. It’s not clear whether that was made official before the freeze — Feliz’s transactions page at MLB.com hasn’t reflected the move — but it seems likely he’ll be in camp at some point.

Feliz appeared with four different clubs, Boston included, in 2021. He totaled just a 7.20 ERA across 20 cumulative innings, struggling with the home run ball. The 28-year-old has been an inconsistent relief arm over the past few seasons, offsetting big swing-and-miss stuff with elevated walk totals. Adding Feliz as non-roster depth won’t have much of an impact on the front office’s search for more stable bullpen help.

As for the desired right-handed batter, Bloom and his staff have the opportunity to explore multiple avenues. Acquiring Bradley could allow Boston to bump utilityman Enrique Hernández from center field — where he spent the bulk of his time in 2021 — to second base more frequently. In that case, a right-handed hitting outfielder to pair with the lefty-swinging Bradley, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran could fit. Alternatively, Hernández could assume that role on the grass while a more natural infielder steps in at the keystone.

Collective Bargaining Issues: Service Time Structure

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The process for determining free agency and arbitration eligibility figures to be among the more contentious aspects of collective bargaining negotiations transpiring over the coming weeks. The MLB Players Association is expected to push for an overhaul of the existing system to get more money to players earlier in their careers; MLB, on the other hand, would seem to prefer the status quo.

Under the current structure, players are first eligible for free agency after logging six full seasons of big league service. Most play their first three seasons on salaries right around the league minimum, first qualifying for arbitration after three years. (The top 22% of players in the two-plus year service bucket also reach arbitration via the Super Two exception).

Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote earlier this week the MLBPA is hoping for players to reach free agency after six years of service or after five years of service and 29.5 years of age, whichever comes first. The Athletic reported in August they were also seeking arbitration eligibility arising after two seasons. The former ask would be an unprecedented development; since the 1975 abolition of the reserve clause, every collective bargaining agreement has set a six-year service threshold for free agency qualification. There is some precedent for the latter proposal, though. Between 1973 and 1987, players only needed two years of service to reach arbitration.

The league, unsurprisingly, hasn’t been keen on either idea. Over the summer, MLB proposed scrapping service time considerations altogether and making players first eligible for free agency at 29.5 years old. That was an obvious non-starter for the MLBPA.

While an age-based threshold would certainly be of benefit to some late-bloomers (hence the MLBPA’s desire to incorporate age into the equation to some extent), it’d also have a negative effect on many of the game’s top young stars. Carlos Correa and Corey Seager — each of whom is either expected to command or already has commanded one of the largest deals in major league history this offseason — would still be multiple years out from free agency under that kind of setup.

An age-based system would, however, address another concern players have expressed: service time manipulation. Calling up a player just days after the threshold passes for a player to earn a full season of service can give clubs a de facto seventh year of control, a loophole multiple teams have exploited when deciding when to promote their top prospects. That’d no longer be a relevant consideration under an age-based system, but even the MLBPA’s modified “age/service time hybrid” proposal could lead to gaming of players’ service clocks.

Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote yesterday that the MLBPA has resigned itself to the potential for manipulation in any system with service time considerations. As a means of somewhat offsetting that issue, Drellich writes they’ve considered more creative ways of players “earning” service time beyond simply counting days. He floats the idea of a player who narrowly missed a service time threshold picking up additional service credit depending upon All-Star nominations or MVP voting.

Regardless of the specific form it takes, it’s clear that getting more money to early-career players is a priority for the MLBPA. Last week, Mets right-hander Max Scherzer — a member of the Players Association’s eight-person player subcommittee — told Drellich “unless this CBA completely addresses the competition (issues) and younger players getting paid, that’s the only way I’m going to put my name on it.”

Earlier free agency eligibility seems to be a non-starter for the league, however. Drellich wrote yesterday that the league refused to make a counter-offer to the MLBPA’s proposals on service time and luxury tax issues unless the union dropped its push for earlier free agency. Drellich reported this morning that the league has been similarly steadfast in its objections to arbitration eligibility after two years.

MLB has shown a willingness to revamp arbitration, albeit not in a manner the MLBPA has found acceptable. Over the summer, MLB proposed abolishing arbitration altogether and replacing it with a revenue-based pool system to be distributed to younger players based on performance. In MLB’s vision, salaries would be fixed based on objective performance metrics — likely some form of Wins Above Replacement statistic.

At a press conference this morning, Commissioner Rob Manfred reaffirmed the league’s objection to earlier free agency and arbitration eligibility (link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today). Manfred argued that the league “already (has) teams in smaller markets that struggle to compete. Shortening the period of time that they can control players makes it even harder for them to compete. It’s also bad for fans in those markets. The most negative reaction we have is when a player leaves via free agency. We don’t see that making it earlier, available earlier, we don’t see that as a positive. Things like a shortened reserve period … and salary arbitration for the whole two-year class are bad for the sport, bad for the fans and bad for competitive balance.”

Manfred echoed competitive balance concerns in pointing to another issue of contention: revenue sharing. The MLBPA has sought to cut back on the amount of money being distributed from higher-revenue franchises to their lower-revenue counterparts, Drellich wrote this morning, believing the reallocation “goes too far in keeping teams afloat without having to invest in players.”

The MLBPA has expressed concern about whether smaller-market clubs adequately reinvest those funds, filing grievances against teams like the Pirates, Rays, A’s and Marlins in years past. The 2016-21 CBA required teams to use revenue sharing money “to improve its performance on the field,” but investments in such things as scouting and player development staffs fit that criteria without offering direct financial benefits to players.

Manfred implied this morning that the MLBPA has expressed a desire to reduce revenue sharing by around $100MM, a development he said would further harm small-market clubs’ ability to compete. How significantly those proposals would harm competitive integrity is up for debate. MLBPA negotiator Bruce Meyer argued they’d have the opposite effect.

“Our proposals would positively affect competitive balance, competitive integrity,” Meyer told Drellich. “We’ve all seen in recent years a problem with teams that don’t seem to be trying their hardest to win games, or put the best teams on the field. Our proposals address that in a number of ways. And we’ve offered to build in advantages for small-market teams.”

There’s some room for debate about the competitive balance impacts of the MLBPA’s goals. There’s little question, on the other hand, that shrinking teams’ windows of contractual control would get more money to younger players. Unless paired with a drop in spending on older veterans, that’d raise the players’ overall share of revenues — a development with which Manfred and league ownership groups certainly wouldn’t be enamored.

Certain Players Remain In DFA Limbo Over Course Of Lockout

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With the lockout formally in place, teams are barred from making any major league transactions. That includes any move involving a player who was recently designated for assignment, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has learned (Twitter link). This had also been the case for players DFA’d shortly before 2020’s pandemic-driven transaction freeze.

Angels left-hander Sam Selman, Phillies right-hander Adonis Medina and Dodgers infielder Sheldon Neuse were all designated for assignment within the two hour span preceding the transaction freeze last night. They lost their roster spots as teams scrambled to find space for other last-minute additions before the previous collective bargaining agreement expired. Those players will remain in DFA limbo throughout the duration of a work stoppage.

Only a small handful of players find themselves in this particular predicament, and they’d have been prohibited from contact with team personnel during the lockout even had they not been DFA’d. Yet that group now finds themselves in an extended window of uncertainty regarding their 2022 employment. They remain members of the organizations that designated them for assignment yesterday, but they no longer occupy a spot on clubs’ 40-man rosters. Upon agreement on a new CBA, teams will have a window to explore trades or expose those players to waivers.

How The MLB Luxury Tax Thresholds Have Changed By Year

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There was a time when the MLB players’ union felt that a luxury tax is just a salary cap in another form, with is why they rejected such proposals back in 1994.  Nonetheless, in the first post-strike collective bargaining agreement, executive director Don Fehr “finally said yes to the luxury tax – the first time the union agreed to any form of payroll restraint since free agency changed everything in 1976,” to quote Jon Pessah’s book The Game.

Though Pessah called that CBA a “huge victory for Fehr and the union” for other reasons, the owners did get their foot in the door on the matter of a luxury tax.  The luxury tax wound up snowballing into a major problem for the players in recent years.

In that CBA, the tax thresholds were set like this:

  • 1996: no luxury tax
  • 1997: $51MM
  • 1998: $55MM, a 7.8% increase
  • 1999: $58.9MM, a 7.1% increase
  • 2000: no luxury tax
  • 2001: if MLBPA exercises its option for ’01, no luxury tax

Mechanisms were also put in place that could allow the 1997-99 thresholds to be higher, depending on where the fifth and sixth-highest payrolls in the game landed.  Tax rates were set at 35% on the overage for ’97-98 and 34% for ’99.

While that CBA technically ended with two years sans luxury tax, it became part of all future agreements.  The agreement that began in 2003 saw the luxury tax rebranded as the “competitive balance tax.”  The MLBPA was able to achieve an initial major increase in the thresholds from where they left off in ’99:

  • 2003: $117MM, a 98.6% increase from ’99
  • 2004: $120.5MM, a 3% increase
  • 2005: $128MM, a 6.2% increase
  • 2006: $136.5MM, a 6.6% increase

For this CBA, a concept was introduced to penalize second, third, or fourth-time offenders with a higher tax rate.  The first-time offender rates were set at 17.5% in ’03 and 22.5% in 2004-05, yet was removed entirely for ’06.  30-40% tax rates were set for teams that exceeded the threshold multiple times during that CBA.

For the CBA beginning in 2007, the tax thresholds were set as follows:

  • 2007: $148MM, an 8.4% increase
  • 2008: $155MM, a 4.7% increase
  • 2009: $162MM, a 4.5% increase
  • 2010: $170MM, a 4.9% increase
  • 2011: $178MM, a 4.7% increase

Here after an initial “new CBA” leap, we start to see the tax thresholds moving up more slowly.  The tax rates were set at 22.5%, 30%, and 40% and began penalizing teams for exceeding the thresholds in consecutive years, introducing the concept of teams “resetting” its rate by getting under the threshold for one season.

For the CBA beginning in 2012, these were the tax thresholds:

  • 2012: $178MM, no increase
  • 2013: $178MM, no increase
  • 2014: $189MM, a 6.2% increase
  • 2015: $189MM, no increase
  • 2016: $189MM, no increase

Here, the players’ union made large concessions that had a compounding effect they’re still feeling today.  If the MLBPA had achieved simply a repeat of the increases from the previous CBA, the 2016 tax threshold would have sat at about $232MM.

The next agreement introduced the concept of luxury tax tiers, adding first and second surcharge thresholds after the base tax one.  For example, 2021 included thresholds at $210MM, $230MM, and $250MM.  This CBA also introduced penalties involving the draft.

  • 2017: $195MM base tax threshold, a 3.2% increase
  • 2018: $197MM, a 1.0% increase
  • 2019: $206MM, a 4.6% increase
  • 2020: $208MM, a 1.0% increase
  • 2021: $210MM, a 1.0% increase

While better than the previous CBA, the MLBPA again agreed to tiny increases in the base tax threshold.  A simple 5% increase per year beginning in 2012 would have put the 2021 base tax threshold around $290MM, yet it sat only at $210MM.  Not coincidentally, only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded a $210MM payroll this year.  You can see the restraint this put on a club like the Yankees, which had a lower 2019 Opening Day payroll than it had in 2005.

In the current negotiations, MLB made an initial proposal that included lowering the base tax threshold to $180MM.  According to Gabe Lacques and Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “In final proposals exchanged Wednesday, players requested a $245 million luxury tax threshold, with no progressive penalties for offenders; owners are offering a $214 million threshold, rising to $220 million in the final year of a five-year agreement.”

With a request to jump to $245MM, the MLBPA is proposing a 16.7% jump over the ’21 threshold, which would only begin to make up the ground they lost due to the non-existent or miniscule increases from 2012 onward.  MLB, meanwhile, would like to increase the base tax threshold by 1.9% for 2022 and is proposing average annual increases of less than 1%.

Rangers Sign Yohel Pozo, Three Others To Minor League Deals

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The Rangers have re-signed catchers Yohel Pozo and David Garcia to minor league contracts, tweets Rangers Executive VP of Communications John Blake. Additionally, Blake reports that minor league free agents Meibrys Viloria, a catcher, and right-handed pitcher Jesus Tinoco have been signed as well. All four players have received invitations to Spring Training. The deals were announced last night, before the lockout and transaction freeze.

Pozo is the highest profile member of the bunch after seeing 21 games of action with Texas last season. He, along with Garcia, were non-tender casualties yesterday so that Texas could make room for their bevy of recent free agent signings. The Rangers will be happy to have the 24-year-old Pozo back after he posted a uniquely incredible season at Triple-A Round Rock. In 77 games the catcher reached base via walk just seven times (2.2% walk rate), but struck out a stingy 42 times (13% strikeout rate). Contact-oriented approaches are seldom this extreme, but Pozo made it work as he slashed .337/.352/.622 with 23 home runs before his Major League promotion.

The 21-year-old Garcia returns to Texas after posting a .647 OPS at the High-A level last season. That tepid showing notwithstanding, the Rangers organization clearly holds the young catcher in high regard. This was evidenced last year, as the team protected him from the Rule 5 draft despite never playing a game above the Low-A level.

Viloria joins a new organization after spending his professional career up to this point with the Royals organization. The 24-year-old catcher saw limited action on Major League Royals squads from 2018-2020, but was held in the upper minors this past season and produced a decent .752 OPS. Tinoco meanwhile has seen most of his action from the Rockies organization, most recently pitching 54 innings of 6.00 ERA ball at Triple-A.

Reds Sign Five Players To Minor League Deals

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The Reds announced last night, before the MLB implemented a lockout, that they had signed five players to minor league deals. They are right-handed pitchers Brandon Bailey and Trey Wingenter, catcher/infielder Andrew Knapp, outfielder Trey Amburgey and infielder/outfielder Allen Cordoba. All five have received invitations to spring training.

Knapp, 30, had been with the Phillies since they selected him in the 2013 draft, seeing MLB action in each of the past five seasons, largely in a reserve capacity. He had a tremendous showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, hitting .278/.404/.444 in 33 games. However, he crashed back to earth in 2021, slashing .152/.215/.214  in 62 games. He was outrighted by the Phillies at the end of the season and elected free agency. The Reds will likely use Tyler Stephenson as their everyday catcher, but after trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, there’s room for Knapp to jump into a backup role.

Wingenter, 27, showed some promise out of the Padres’ bullpen in 2018 and 2019. Over those two seasons, he pitched 70 innings, with an ERA of 5.14. His tremendous strikeout rate of 33.1% was offset by a bloated 13% walk rate. He underwent Tommy John surgery in July of 2020 and has been mostly out of action since, though he did get into a handful of Complex League games in August of this year. The Padres non-tendered him earlier this week.

Bailey, 27, was initially acquired by the Reds from the Astros in a 2020 trade. He pitched 7 1/3 innings for the Astros at the MLB level that year, his only big league experience to date. In 2019, he pitched 92 2/3 innings at the Double-A level with an ERA of 3.30. He underwent Tommy John surgery in February of this year and missed the entire season. He was non-tendered earlier in the week, with his return on a minor league deal reported at that time.

Amburgey, 27, was selected by the Yankees in the 13th round of the 2015 draft. He made his major league debut this season but was only given four plate appearances in two games. In 71 Triple-A games in 2021, he hit .276/.337/.475, but with a concerning strikeout rate of 28.1%.

Cordoba, who turns 26 in a few days, was a Rule 5 selection of the Padres in 2016 and stayed on the roster for all of the 2017 season. He was only 21 years old at the time and had never played above Rookie ball. He hit .208/.282/.297 that year in 100 MLB games. Since that time, he’s played in the minors for the Padres, spending 2021 at Double-A, hitting .299/.392/.446. He was outrighted off San Diego’s roster last week.

Major League Portion Of Rule 5 Draft “Postponed Indefinitely”

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9:55AM: Glaser provided an update on Twitter, saying that the draft is “postponed indefinitely”.

8:49AM: The MLB instituted a lockout yesterday after the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Until a new CBA is agreed to, the lockout will remain in place with teams prohibited from making transactions during that time. This apparently will include the major league portion of this year’s Rule 5 draft, as Kyle Glaser of Baseball America reports that it has been canceled. The Triple-A section of the draft will still take place as scheduled, however.

As noted by Glaser, the draft has taken place each year since 1920, even going ahead during past MLB work stoppages such as the 1994 strike. However, 2021 will see that century-long streak come to an end.

The Rule 5 draft has long been used as a way for players to get opportunities to play at the MLB level when not given them by their previous club. Teams with open 40-man roster spots can select a player with four to five years of pro experience from other organizations if said player hasn’t been given a spot on the 40-man roster. Players who signed at 18 years of age or younger but have five years of experience can be selected, as can players signed at 19 or older who have four years of experience.

As Glaser points out, the most recent iteration of the draft led to the breakout seasons of such players as Akil Baddoo, Garrett Whitlock and Tyler Wells. From a historical perspective, the draft also led to the first MLB action of such stars as Johan Santana, George Bell, Joakim Soria, Roberto Clemente and dozens of others.

It’s fair to wonder whether teams knew that this decision was going to be made since, just a couple of weeks ago, they still went through the usual process of adding players to their 40-man rosters in order to protect them from being selected in the draft.

How The MLB Minimum Salary Has Changed With Each New CBA

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collectAs we enter Day 1 of the MLB lockout, one key issue in the current labor negotiations is where the players’ minimum salary will land.  Given the union’s stated goal to get players paid more when they’re younger and more productive, it stands to reason that they’re seeking a more significant increase than usual.  The minimum salary was set at $570,500 in 2021.  It’s not known how much MLB proposed raising it in their most recent offer.  Here’s a look at how the minimum salary has changed with each new CBA.

  • 1968: Minimum salary went from $6K to $10K, a 66.7% increase
  • 1970: $10K to $12K, a 20% increase
  • 1973: $13.5K to $15K, an 11.1% increase
  • 1976: $16K to $19K, an 18.8% increase
  • 1980: $21K to $30K, a 42.9% increase
  • 1985: $40K to $60K, a 50% increase
  • 1990: $68K to $100K, a 47.1% increase
  • 1997: $109K to $150K, a 37.6% increase
  • 2003: $200K to $300K, a 50% increase
  • 2007: $327K to $380K, a 16.2% increase
  • 2012: $414K to $480K, a 15.9% increase
  • 2017: $507.5K to $535K, a 5.4% increase

In the free agency era, the minimum salary had always increased by at least 15.9% until the just-expired CBA.  There is historical precedent for a leap as high as 50%, which would mean $855,750 for 2022.  An increase of 16% would be more in line with the ’07 and ’12 CBAs, which would set the minimum at $661,780.  It should also be noted that the minimum salary typically increases each year within a CBA, with the ’20 and ’21 rates involving cost of living adjustments.

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