The White Sox were known to be discussing a contract extension with Lucas Giolito last spring, and The Athletic’s James Fegan shares some details about the talks between the two sides. The Sox offered Giolito a four-year, $50MM deal covering the 2021-24 seasons (Giolito’s three remaining arbitration-eligible years and his first free agent year), and there was also a club option for the 2025 campaign.
As Fegan put it, the “offer was declined without a counter made by Giolito’s camp, as it was not viewed as being suitable enough to drive further discussion.” As a result, Giolito earned $4.14MM in 2021, as per the arbitration-avoiding deal he made with the Sox before extension talks began in earnest. His salary for 2022 has yet to be determined, as the two sides now appear to be heading for an arbitration hearing after failing to reach an agreement before Tuesday’s filing deadline.
Giolito is looking for a $7.5MM salary and the White Sox countered with a $7.3MM figure. Of the 31 players who didn’t agree to contracts prior to Tuesday’s deadline, Giolito’s case represents the smallest financial gap between player and team. Furthermore, Giolito told The Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen and other reporters that negotiations got as close as a $50K difference.
“For it to come down to a 50K difference prior to the filing, it’s like, ’Come on.’ It’s an upsetting part of the process. It’s why a lot of us don’t enjoy the business side of the process,” Giolito said.
Between the lack of progress in last year’s extension talks or this year’s arbitration talks, it remains to be seen whether or not these disputes could impact Giolito’s future in Chicago. GM Rick Hahn told Van Schouwen and other reporters that the arbitration impasse was “a function of the arbitration process” and “not a reflection of anything to do with [Giolito].” As for the right-hander himself, Giolito noted “Like I’ve always said about extensions, I absolutely love this team. The more I play the more I understand my value as a player. And I just want fair. It’s always fair for me, that’s where I’m at.”
Going back to the 2021 extension talks, it is clear that Giolito and his representatives didn’t think the four-year/$50MM offer fit their version of “fair,” considering that Giolito was coming off his second season of front-of-the-rotation performance. While the shortened 2020 campaign limited Giolito to 72 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.48 ERA and a 33.7% strikeout rate that ranked among the league’s best.
Back in March 2020, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd speculated that a Giolito extension could be worth around $45MM. With another good performance in the books that season and Giolito getting a year closer to free agency, clearly a $5MM bump from Todd’s projection wasn’t enough to get Giolito’s attention. While Chicago’s $50MM offer did top the amount of guaranteed money the Phillies gave Aaron Nola (another quality pitcher who had between three and four years of service time), Fegan writes that the Nola extension was “widely assessed as a team-friendly deal,” and also that Nola had recently had an injury scare in the form of a forearm strain.
Giolito, meanwhile, has no such injury issues, apart from a few brief IL stints due to muscle strains. And, with Giolito again pitching well in 2021, the CAA Sports client is surely looking for an even bigger payday in any multi-year extension. For teams like the White Sox who take a “file and trial” stance when it comes to negotiating one-year arbitration deals, more talks continue when it comes to discussing longer-term extensions, so it isn’t out of the question that the two sides can revisit the subject before things actually reach a hearing.
Looks like a pretty terrible offer that would only be accepted if he was hurt.
It’s his worth, he’s not an ace
Don’t recall saying he was an ace, but that is a lowball offer for what he’s put up from 2019-2021.
If he’s not a ace then the money is right, he wants 20 million a year, he’s liters a 3rd starter last year
He is far closer to a ace then a #3 starter that is for sure. On the open market he would well about 4 years for 50 million.
He’s not on the open market though. Why would you compare a contract that includes 3 years of arbitration control & 1 + 1 of free agent years to one on the open market?
That said, I wouldn’t have accepted in his position either. He stands a good chance of beating that over that time period if his arm doesn’t explode and he got ~$3m signing bonus, so he shouldn’t be hurting for money super bad.
So why are you making all this anti Gio comments when YOU “wouldn’t have accepted in his position either”? And the comment about his arm “exploding” certainly seems to harbor some dark wish on your part on some level.
What’s your definition of an ace? Because if you’re expecting Degrom or Cole or Scherzer, you’re only talking about a half dozen pitchers tops that can even be anywhere in that realm. Giolito has put up 3 straight years of ERA+ of 123 to 138. if he keeps that up and stays healthy, Cooperstown will be calling.
That’s where things get interesting: What is the definition of an ace?
For starters, an ACE has to go 7+ and give up two runs or less in at least 30% of his starts.
There’s mine. A workhorse who is almost guaranteed to end losing streaks!
So according to your definition, there were ZERO “aces” in 2021.
That’s a ridiculous set of criteria for being a “ace”
Reinsdorf doesn’t like to pay pitchers that’s the bottom line.. I’ve been a Sox fan since 1992 and the same thing happened with Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez, and I’m sure there’s many more. Back in the 90’s I still remember Reinsdorf calling it bad business to pay a player who only plays once every 5 games the big bucks. Get used to it lol. I’m surprised they gave Lynn the money
@KODION So how many “Aces” went 7+ last year and on how many occasions?
@FSF … and in those 3 years he came in 6th, 7th and 11th in Cy Young voting, with a combined 11 WAR. There are only 2 other pitchers to get CY votes in all 3 years – Cole and DeGrom. No – he isn’t on their level, but he is in the next tier, and I would consider him an ace.
From my understanding, the White Sox pay their pitchers to taking care of their own players. Peavy was getting paid well when he was here. Danks was given a nice contract before he had that serious injury. Dallas Kuechel signed a nice deal.
If I was him I would take it as a big FU from them 50k thats less than pocket change to a professional franchise. I would not sign any type of extension and I would not want to be with this team.
yankees2016rebuild1 hour ago
If I was them I would take it as a big FU from him 50k that’s less than pocket change to a professional player.
Bill James currently ranks Giolito as the 11th best starting pitcher in baseball. Yeah, he’s an ace.
He’s an ace what are you talking about stupid? He has finished in CY young voting the past 3 years.
I agree with you Giolito being no better than a third starter. In the meantime, this is going to be an interesting year for Giolito since he put on 20lbs. during the off-season with strengthening his legs where he wants to pitch over 200 innings and have dominating stuff deep in the season. Giolito’s numbers in the second half of 2021 are little interesting to look at since there are few games where he couldn’t go over five innings. Possible fatigue or just over thinking where to locate his pitch, but he needs to bring down his number with giving up home runs.
Have to agree with FSF on this one. There’s no such thing as an ace in a vacuum. An ace is an ace when you compare that person to what their piers are doing. I don’t know if I’m prepared to call Giolito an ace (though in this discussion nobody has called him that yet) but he’s also probably closer to that than even my knee-jerk reaction expects.
They are only buying out his arbitration years. This is not a free agent market offer.
What a cheap offer. Ride out those arb years and make 25m a Year in FA.
did they sign close friends and family members of hia before doing so.
@darkside
I’ll never forget the Yonder Alonso ploy lol.
4/$50M was a fair offer prior to the 2021 season. In 2021, he earned $4.1M and he’ll earn up to $7.5M this year. Let’s say his 2023 arbitration salary comes in at $13.4M. That’s $25M over 3 years of arbitration, so under the 4/$50M offer, they’d be buying one year of free agency from him for $25M. Seems like a fair number to me. I’m not sure how old he is but maybe he just wanted to hit free agency in 2024 so he can maximize his earnings in a long term deal, but there is some risk here for him as well. It will be interesting to see how he performs the next 2 seasons and if he made the right decision or not.
So an AAV of only $12.5 million? He’d easily make at least $20 million on the open market. Heck, Jordan Lyles got a guarenteed $7 million from the Orioles and he’s only ever once pitched more than 150 innings in a season and has had an ERA+ of 100 or greater once as well. Giolito will be hitting the open market when he’s entering his age-29 season, there’s no doubt he’d at the very least get Kevin Gausman money so long as he doesn’t have a catastrophic injury.
Exactly.
No an AAV of 20 mill over the last 2 years, as he garnered 4 and 7 over the 1st 2 years of Arb.
You’re not taking into account the fact that the $50M covered 3 arb years and only one FA year. You can’t just look at the AAV and compare it to FA contracts when 3/4ths of the deal would cover cost-controlled arb years.
Exactly. It’s really not a terrible offer but he’s essentially betting on himself to do well and continue to raise his arb pay and go to FA with the hope of getting 24+ a year.
Adding on, the Sox really had no incentive to go beyond the 4/50 offer since they had control for 3 of the 4 years. I could see if maybe Gio was frustrated in the length, and was looking at a longer term committment more along the lines of a 7 year deal in the neighborhood of 125 M
And you’re not taking into account that the team wanted an option on a second free agent year. HUGE deal. They want to be able to dump him but not take any risk to pay that year.
Sure, every contract of length is a guarantee to the player that puts ALL the risk on the team. Going year to year is the only way the player assumes any risk at all. Shouldn’t a guaranteed paycheck provide some value to the team? As a pitcher, if his performance continues, he could well make more than $50MM over the 4 years. He could also get injured, be non-tendered, have to take a step back and try to reestablish himself after TJS or TOS.
Fair enough, that’s on me jumping to conclusions.
There are so many people on this site that don’t understand that free agent $ standards can’t just be universally applied to every contract. Good on you for realizing it after more context.
You seem to be the foremost among them.
Lotta people aren’t completely aware how arbitration works in here I See
Yeah I believe he earned about 4.1M last year, it’ll be about 7.5 this year, maybe 11 next year, so that would’ve been about 21.5 for the first three years, so year 4 of the deal which would’ve been year 1 of FA would’ve been about 28-29M… definitely fair
That’s an insulting offer.
Terrible offer from WSox. I thought it would be in the 75-80 range.
He’s hitting free agency after next year. Looking good for any Cali teams with big money to offer 6-130? 7-150? He gone
A 4 year/75-80 deal would be rewarding him with 49-54 mill in his year of free agency. Would love to negotiate against you.
I never said a 4 year offer. That’s only one year of his free agency years. Could have been 5/75 and gained 2 extra years
Are all these posters talking from personal experience? Seem very confident in passing up 50 million dollars to gamble on an uncertain future.
His gamble only like 30 mil. With signing bonus he at 15 mil made.. if you are under 30 you should be high yielding earnings.
But there’s a high likelihood that he makes a good chunk of that as a close to worst case scenario. And what you folks seem to want to pigeonhole him into will likely cost him up to $100M+ down the road.
So he took 4.5 in ‘21, will get around 7.5 in 22, and if best case scenario will see about 11-13M in ‘23 maybe a little more. So he sort of turned down that last year at around $25-28M. But I also think if negotiations happened again today they have to offer more.
The club option would be why I’d say no, but also gambling that one year for a potential entry into the free agency a year earlier I’d say is risky considering 3 years a lot in pitching years.
Exactly this. He would have been obtaining a guaranteed 25-28 in the first year past arb, essentially providing himself insurance before the 2021 season against any kind of injury or downturn, which given his previous TJ, is not unreasonable. But good on Gio for betting on himself.
If he continues to be the “workhorse'”(by today’s standards) that he’s been and generate an ERA of even 3.50 or below, he’ll get SERIOUSLY paid as a free agent. Think $25-30M per year over 6-8 years easily. This way he can be a free agent entering his age 29 season and get that long term high AAV deal as opposed to trying that when he will be entering his age 31 season. I don’t think most of the people on here understand all that’s in play.
This is exactly it—the last extension is o good because of the age it puts him at to be a free agent.
Just because the Sox have had a ton of luck taking advantage of these deals with young players—good for Gio for sayin no thanks.
*no good
Gio is a stud and can bet on himself all we wants, but I don’t see how the offer was a non-starter.
Let’s say he gets $15MM in arb3… and that might be generous given he’s going to get $7MM this year. Based on what he got ($12MM between arb1 and arb2), that’s essentially $27MM for the three arb years and then $23MM for the FA year. Perhaps the option year was too much or too low? Or I’m completely missing something.
I’d be disgusted with the White Sox offseason if I were a fan. The arbitration cases, the lack of a splash signing, all right in their prime window
Arbitration case since Lucas Giolito is the only White Sox player headed for a potential hearing.
“Arbitration cases” would more aptly apply to last season’s World Series winning Braves who have 6 players in line for a hearing including Giolito’s former high school pitching mate Max Fried whose salary request was the next closest, a gap of just $250k. transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration…
Joe Kelley and Graveman and Harrison werwnt bad although Id like to score Conforto as well.
Giolito didn’t want to sign with the Sox, even for a short period after his free agency period begins. But the Sox should just pay him the extra 50K. Right.
Absolutely!
This is Reinsdorf. $50K for him is like $50M for you and me. I’m STUNNED their payroll will be north of $180M this year.
The White Sox were “in the ballpark” with their pre-2021 extension but Lucas Giolito and his reps apparently were looking for a much bigger deal. A year later and coming off another fine season, his price tag is clearly higher. The silliness of his 2022 arbitration salary disagreement ($50k or $200k) doesn’t figure to help the White Sox negotiating position going forward either.
$50M before the 2021 season wasn’t a terrible offer. If you break it down for 2021-2024 as:
2021: $4.25M (a bit more than the $4.14 he got)
2022: $7.5M (accepting his arb number this year, but guaranteed in before the 2021 season)
2023: $13.25M (estimated final year arb number with a solid raise amount factored in and guaranteed in 2021 against injury/performance decline
2024: $25M (one free agent year guaranteed in 2021 against injury/performance decline)
That just doesn’t strike me as an unreasonably cheap offer. Maybe not super generous, but it seems fair enough considering the team already had control for 3 of the 4 years, the fact that pitchers are always at risk of injury/performance decline, and the deal would have guaranteed salaries over 4 years.
It also wasn’t unreasonable for Giolito to decline. Maybe he wanted more years if he were to sign an extension. And/or he just wasn’t concerned enough about the risk of injury/performance decline to take the guaranteed money early in exchange for a one-year delay to free agency and a chance for a long-term big-money contract.
Finally…a good post… and nice clean breakdowns
Beyond fair offer IMo …CWS were actually taking a bigger risk here than LG
Well said. The White Sox, like many of their peers, have also been averse to issuing long term contracts to any pitcher unless the salary amounts were team friendly and the pitchers relatively young or pre-arbitration like Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Aaron Bummer. They had submitted a few expensive long term deals to free agent SP’s that were rejected, like the ‘reported’ top offer issued to Zack Wheeler two offseason’s ago, but those they have been far and few between. I believe the contract given to Dallas Keuchel as their consolation prize for losing out on Wheeler still remains as their highest FA commitment to a SP. Last offseason they did manage to land top closer Liam Hendriks in a bidding war with the help of a ‘controversial’ structured contract that still has me confused. lol
Pre 2021 he had back to back top 12 cy young status. Anything with a Free agent year under 30 mil should be dismissed. It’s prime years you pay prime numbers.
@the02016, you don’t understand risk/reward. What do the Sox gain by locking themselves in for the rest of his arb years and another year at full market rate? Right now, if he had a catastrophic injury or experienced a swift decline (both unlikely, but not impossible), they could non-tender him next year and be done. With the contract, they’re locked in, and it makes no sense to do that without getting any sort of discount off of market rate.
Don’t think the Sox would mind much if Gio has another solid year and wins out by betting on himself. That’s a good problem to have. By 2024 the Keuchel contract will be off the books and the team in position to offer Gio the 25 per he’d likely command
The WhiteSox are NOT handing out a 125-150mil contract c’mon wake up. Grandal has largest contract at what 73mil
Lets not let this 20k or whatever take away from our team chemistry. Its just not worth it. Dont let it get to the team.
Hopefully his bet pays off
That’s a Braves signing. Hey, Rick Hahn, you’re not that guy, pal. You’re not that guy.
Of course it’s a team friendly deal. Reinsdorf wouldn’t have offered it if it wasn’t. There’s some risk to injury, but he’ll still make millions and likely will make vastly more by hitting free agency in two years for his age-29 season. They screwed up on Rodon and they’re going to screw up on Giolito.
Speaking of CWS hurlers…how are they going to keep DK under 160 inns this year thus nixing the 23′ 20 mill salary
You just have to, I don’t care if he’s providing quality Sp 4 inns . The Div should be won easily and he doesn’t factor into the postseason so….
Do you just straight cut him around 130 inns ?
He won’t go for the pseudo inj thing … I see this potentially getting ugly but I fully stand behind ownership for not letting him hit 160…No Way No How would I let it trigger
With all of the money they are spending on the bullpen, they should be able to keep Keuchel on a short leash and regularly pull him after 4-5 innings and let Reylo/Velasquez/Crochet/Graveman fill in multiple innings after that.
If DK actually pitches well enough that the team wants to keep him in for more than 5 innings per start on a consistent basis, that’s a good problem to have.
Agree they will be shorter than average but 160 will still come into play later.
There will be a fair share of 6 and 7 inns performances as well . He’s always been quite a worker when healthy which was probably his best attribute ….now, in a way, you gotta reel that back in 180 degrees
Ofc he probably naturally gets injured for 3 weeks+ making this mute newayz but something to look at and track during the All star break
His pitching should do that for him. I’d be giving him a quick hook with that deep bullpen if he keeps giving up 5 runs in 4 innings.
Then you’d have yourself a major grievance—that you would for sure lose.
Jeeze.
Yes and then there is that lefty….. hence the drama……. but pulling him at 4 inns in Sept when he’s nearing the goaline might get a grievance as well
“We felt our bullpen gave us better chance for positive outcomes vs the upcoming hitters compared to what Dallas offered facing the lineup again”
Grievance won.
The Sox might go with a six man rotation of Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Keuchel and Lopez or Velasquez for a month or so. This will help rest guys for the long season and to make sure Keuchel doesn’t get those 160 innings.
Atlanta’s next World Series opponent
Would be fun considering most of the White Sox farm system is within 200 miles of Atlanta
50k difference on a 4 million dollar deal. Yet everyone blames the owners….
Considering the owners are billionaires, shouldn’t they be the ones to give on a measly $50K? Why should the player have to capitulate?
Given that payroll has to cover all players, not just Giolito, why should his teammates have to take less because he insists on 50K more? Its not coming out of the “Billionaire’s” pocket, Its coming out of the teams budget for payroll.
Who says the “payroll” is a zero sum figure? The owners? That should tell your right there where the greed lies.
I’m not even sure what you mean by “his teammates have to take less”. Most all of them are locked in already to whatever their getting paid. And it isn’t Giolito’s problem or issue or concern about what other people get paid. That’s the OWNER’S problem.
This is why the owners have been successful because folks like you make completely illogical arguments on their behalf.
They went halfway. Giolito didn’t. It’s his right to say no, but his exercising of that right doesn’t mean it’s all the fault of the Sox.
Your statement, along with dpmith22 and stymeedone, is exactly the problem. You guys are trying to find “fault” and trying to do so with the player.
You said it best, he has the right to feel his worth is whatever he thinks it is. Why people would try to make that seem like he has done something wrong or is greedy is completely beyond me.
No. They should not. They don’t need to capitulate, they can go to arbitration, that’s what it’s there for.
Thank you Captain Obvious! We’ve decided to promote you to Major.
Agreed. A lot of people are blaming the Sox without knowing all the facts. Started as a 200K difference, and got down to 50K. Would anyone change their opinion if it turns out the Sox moved 150K and Gio didn’t move at all? We just don’t have the facts, and it is a mistake to place blame.
Giolito could make a lot more money than this
Just a question, but exactly HOW does an arbitration player make more than the two numbers submitted? Giolito submitted his salary demand and the White Sox submitted their number. An arbitrator will choose one OR the other without negotiation, raises, or any other scenario entering the picture. So again, exactly HOW could ANY player make more when a case goes to arbitration?
I wonder if paying the extra 50k in arbitration would be a problem for the White Sox if their prior extension offer wasn’t categorised as “not suitable enough to drive further discussion”.
“First Prize: A new Cadillac
Second Prize: A set of steak knives
Third Prize is you’re fired.”
It’s basic logic: if a team is offering an early extension, they’re doing so to get a significant discount on those years. It’s reasonable for a player to nearly double their value based on the extension offer, in most cases. So if the White Sox are offering $12.5M AAV, you might in fact be worth at least $25M AAV on the open market. So, it’s reasonable for both sides to give up something.
I get the sense 4 years/$70M might have gotten it done. Or 6 years/$124.5M, etc.
Enough that what the player is giving up isn’t that significant and what the team might be overpaying later isn’t a earth shatteringly over the market value if the player comes back down to earth, but the team still gets some kind of a discount and the player gives up a few million but not a true fortune in comparison.
Someone needs to tell Preller that because I don’t think he got the memo.
Not how this works at all. He’s getting $7.5M in arb this year. Unless he has a superhuman year, he’ll get at-best double next year. $4.14 + $7.5 + $15 = 26.64 for his arb years, leaving 23.36 for his lone FA year. If his value is roughly $25M/yr, that’s not far off from market rate.
Giolito wants every single penny available on the open market for his FA years. He isn’t going to agree to a team friendly K. The WS will have to overpay for him to sign away FA years. Frankly, almost all of Hahn’s success as a GM can be boiled down to his ability to get his best controlled players to sign well under market Ks. It is hard to see Giolito a WS long-term and they may get zero for him if the QO is eliminated. Just another reason why they should’ve been spending bigly on needs (2b, RF, SP, etc) in FA before the window closes. This arbitration acrimony/relationship is very similar to the beefs Jack McDowell had with Reinsdorf/White Sox in the early 90s.
And that’s certainly his right to seek those pennies. But I want two things to stop:
1. I want players to stop saying, “That’s out of my hands.” No, it isn’t. Nobody’s signing that contract for you. Nobody else is making that decision. They negotiate, they advise, but it is their decision, which means it is very much in their hands when they sign. I’d rather they be honest about and say, “We’re talking about generational money here. I want everything I feel I’ve earned.” It would be refreshing.
2. I want fans to stop blaming only the team every time they fail to sign a given player to an extension or arbitration. Sometimes, it’s all on the team for not wanting a player back, sometimes all on the player for not wanting to come back, but usually, it’s on both. The player can sign any offer put in front of him, but chooses not to. That choice means both parties are involved in not getting a deal done.
Why is he the one trying to “seek those pennies” and not Reinsdorf? Why so many of you want to shill for ownership is beyond me.
It is “out of his hands”. He has firmly and definitely decided that he is worth at least “X”. The Sox can give it to him or not, but why should there be any negative reaction toward Giolito for wanting his value?
His deciding his value means it is in his hands. Whether he has that value rightly or wrongly decided is on him. And I’m not shilling for ownership. I’m saying Giolito has some of the responsibility if he truly wants a deal done. Him holding out for whatever number is *his* decision, not the Sox’ FO. Why do people want to blame the owners for absolutely everything while the players are always blameless saints who are always correct in all they think and do?
Lastly, and I will defend ownership this far, why would Reinsdorf seek those pennies in his name? It’s a business. If you had a business and the going rate for an accountant was $100K/yr, would you pay $125K/yr because the accountant thought he was worth it? That’s a really bad argument.
Once again, why is it not the FO’s decision as well? They are every bit as much “holding out” so I have no idea why you are trying to frame it as you are.
Everyone “wants a deal done” but only at a certain level. What if we didn’t know any of these figures and Giolito (as with virtually EVERY player) said they truly wanted a deal done? What’s the number then? Should he take $1 million? $2M? $5M? $10?
I’m not blaming it all on the player. You’re blaming it all on the FO. That’s the difference. Yes, it is partly the FO’s decision. I never denied that. All I’ve denied is the narrative that the player is just a leaf blown about by the wind, with no say in whatever happens to him, like they claim.
And I am saying he’s right. He’s made clear the terms that he is willing to live with. At that point, it’s for the FO to decide. So yes, technically it is out of his hands. Unless he wants to comprise what his own perceived value is. And he doesn’t seem to want to do that. And I’ve been around dozens of companies with full access to all compensation data and everyone in the private sector pretty much behaves the same way, expect for the clueless ones who don’t know any better.
By that logic, the FO has decided he’s not worth what he claims he is, so it’s out of their hands, too. I guess nobody has any say in this then. Your argument is that because he’s made a decision, he has no say in the matter, but the company, which has also made a decision, does have a say.
That’s why they go to an ARBITRATION hearing! Duh!
I was talking about the extension. As for arb, fine they go to the hearing. You said open market in your post that started all this, and now you’re switching to arbitration.
Where did I say “open market” exactly? And I never “started all this”. I was replying to someone’s post who was erroneous interpreting the situation.
This. Hyrax is on a roll. Preach on brother
While we have seen contracts like this, usually it’s players less developed. Gio has had three seasons of good durability and consistent top of the rotation pitching if not ace like. I think you’re crazy if you don’t think Gio could get a 6 year guarantee of around $150 million.
Could he get injured or experience less success in the coming couple seasons that completely derail his plans? Of course. There is no position more volatile for your health than pitcher in baseball but than maybe he won’t either.
He couldn’t. This year, he’ll get $7.5M, next year, maybe $15 if he pitches to his capabilities. So you’re telling me you’d give him $127.5M for the remaining four years? He hasn’t pitched to *that* level yet.
Obviously not until he is a free agent. Maybe I wasn’t clear enough. I was projecting him forward if he were to continue at his current level. Otherwise, the second paragraph doesn’t make sense.
Ace as in a number starter. He is not a number one but a solid number 2 starter. Whatever he ends up signing for in the future, after arbitration he’ll be more than $13 million behind where he could’ve been. That’s $13 million in his pocket to invest. Every pitcher is one pitch away from injury. It appears its not a good decision by Giolito and his agent to walk away from $50 million guaranteed. Math clearly isn’t a strength he possesses
Your math doesn’t make sense. How would he be behind $13 million? Map out it quickly.
Ace as in number 1 starter? Meaning one of the best 30 SP in baseball? Giolito is definitely a top 30 SP. Probably closer to top 15-20. Also don’t get your math. Did you realize realize he would’ve had to give up TWO free agent years? And then try to land his one and (likely) only big FA payday at 31 instead of 29? That’s math.
I’m sure the math skills of his agent are just fine.
Does it say anywhere what the $ on that option year is?
What difference does it make either way, especially for the Sox when it is a team option?
CWS tried to lowball Giolito.
I think the main issue is age at the onset of free agency.
Currently he will turn 28 in a couple of months. Thus he will be a free agent a few months prior to being age 30. If he accepted the White Sox offer, he would be a free agent closer to age 31.
That 1 year makes a huge difference in AAV and contract length. The contract the White Sox offered was a very reasonable amount for 1st year after arbitration, but it puts Gioleto in a less competitive position in free agency. The White Sox should have offered him more years. For example. 6/90-95 or 7/110 or something like that.
Once again, for the umpteenth time, the Sox wanted an additional option year so it’s two years of his free agency they wanted, not one, and they were free to bail on that second year if things went sour. Complete insult all around to Giolito.
This.
That.
Why not go back and counter offer. Something like, “thanks, but can you remove the club option year and bump it up to X”.
Responding with it’s not worthy of a counter offer is just an unnecessary slap in the face. The result likely being the club giving him a slap back in arbitration.
The angst between players and clubs is ridiculous.
Hitting free agency at 28 as opposed to 30 is a big deal. Not a whole lot of upside for Giolito.
Do you know how much that option year was valued at?
How does Giolito hit free agency at 28?
Looking at Fangraphs, and maybe it’s wrong, but they have him listed as a free agent after 2023 so ~ Oct of 2023, he was born July 14th 1994, that puts him at 29 and some change when he hits free agency.
But what should be obvious is why it’s such an insult that the Sox want to lock him up until he is 31 before hitting free agency in exchange for peanuts. And they can walk away on the last and undoubtedly most lucrative salary year should something go wrong for Gio. Massive insult. You said it best. You wouldn’t do it either. Which begs the question why you’re trying so hard to be critical of him.
My bad, I thought he was 26. Honestly, that makes it an even worse idea to take that deal. In the end, who cares.
ChiSox offer Gio
$50mm over 4 seasons
ARB1 2021: $12.5mm
ARB2 2022: $12.5mm
ARB3 2023: $12.5mm
FA1 2024: $12.5mm
Giolito’s Reality
ARB1 2021: $4.14mm (-$8.36mm)
ARB2 2022: $7.3(Sox) OR 7.5mm(Gio)(-$5mm)
ARB3 2023: $TBD
FA1 2024: $TBD
After 2022 ARB decision Gio will have earned $13.36mm LESS to date, than the Sox $50mm offer prior to 2021 through 2022 and no guarantees for 2023/24 if he’s injured.
*EDIT* $50mm over 4 seasons
ARB1 2021: $12.5mm
ARB2 2022: $12.5mm
ARB3 2023: $12.5mm
FA1 2024: $12.5mm
**FA2 2025: Team Option $TBD
**Team Option not part of the $50mm or $$ not mentioned.
Giolito’s agent should’ve counter-offered regardless…
4/58, 4/60, 4/65 DO YOUR JOB AGENT.
Perhaps Giolito said he didn’t even want to counter-offer. It’s his right to decide that. He appears to be one of those guys who’s dead-set on testing FA. That’s also his right. Sox are all but certain to lose him when that happens.
Extensions in arbitration rarely, if ever, pay a flat average across the years. Every single arb extension I have ever read about or heard about pay lower sums up front. Most likely it would’ve been something like 4/7/13/26 – another option for 26. I’m curious if you can find one example, ever, in the history of arb extensions, where the yearly rate was flat. I can find hundreds of examples that aren’t. Doesn’t mean that one example doesn’t exist. I just do not think it does.
So, if 12.5 in years 1 – 3 aren’t a thing, not sure this changes his calculus the way you’re illustrating.
What he really wants is to go to $20M a year, right now!
So do I, but it ain’t happenin’!
Mixed feelings here. IF (big if) they really wanted Giolito for a while, offering 6/100 going into last year would have been fair for both. That’s buying FA 3yrs @ around 72mil. Probably would still have been turned down b/c Giolito sees starters getting a bundle and has no issue taking the gamble to forego. WSox will just have to develop guys like Kelley/Vera to step in when his 2yrs are up. Good organizations can replace arms they think are good, but not worth paying retail.
Should’ve offered him 5 years/90 million
Why are so many posters acting like this extension would have started when his rookie deal ended? That means the Sox would have effectively locked in his arb years, which are almost always well below market value, especially for top players, and just one year at something close to, but a little below, market rate. They weren’t offering $12.5M AAV to a free agent, but to someone who won’t do better than $4.1, $7.5 and $15 in those first three years. It’s not a lowball offer. Giolito doesn’t want it, that’s fine, but the Sox weren’t screwing him over. Learn how arbitration works and the concept of risk/reward.
It isn’t at all like you’re trying to paint it. He probably would have taken a $26-27M 3 year deal. I’m sure he and his agent understand the ARB process better than all of the jokers here trying to play armchair GM.
But you’re completely ignoring the free agency impact that such a deal would negatively have on him. That was I’m sure THE issue.
$27M is more than he can reasonably get in arb, I’m sure he would have taken that, lol. As for free agency impact, the last year would have been at around $24M. If his market value is $25M, how is that so far below as to completely end discussions? What huge, everlasting impact is that having on him? Are teams really going to say, “Well, if he was 28, we’d have offered 10 years/$340M, but now that he’s 29, it’s 4 years, $100M, and you’re luck to get even that!”
Is 2nd grade math beyond your capability? You’re the one that mapped out $26.6 million for his ARB years and you’re already backpeddling?
As for the free agency, you’re comments are so beyond farcical for so many reasons that it’s pointless to even try to educate you. But it’s all too obvious you don’t pay attention to what goes on with contract signings.
$27 is more than 26.6. I thought you’d understand that. If 26.6 is on the very high end, and 27 is more, of course he’d take it. I’ll admit, I let sarcasm and frustration get the better of me in the above post, but there is really not some long-term, horrible FA value impact on this, unless he gets injured in that one year. It won’t make much difference to teams whether he’s 28 or 29. They may take off a year at the end, but he’ll have already gotten market value AAV for that year, or near enough, so what difference does it make? The one thing we can agree on is continuing this is pointless, but you’re the one who hasn’t had a cogent argument yet.
That club option puts him at 30. It could easily be the difference between 4-5 year deal and 7-8 year deal and few million more aav
I highly doubt teams value the age 29 season that highly. A 7-8yr deal for his age 29 season puts him at 36 for the 8th year. A 5 year deal for his age 30 season takes him through his age 34 season. As I said above, I can see teams taking off a year, but not really more than that. As for the few million AAV, those tend to be higher on shorter deals. I think this difference is being blown out of proportion, especially if he continues to be among the top starters in the AL.
$26.6M is what YOU said. And I said $26-27M, not $27M. So, you’re just continually wrong all over the place. And the fact that you feel the need to quibble over semantics (of which you’re in the wrong to begin with) shows you have no grasp of this situation at all.
If I read the article right they were buying out his arb years, plus one free agency year, plus a club option. If my math is right that would put him at 30 in the off-season after the team option. It just seems like teams are more likely to give those extra years when you are getting 4-5 prime years on the front end. Who knows
I think the big thing here is his age when he hits the market. This would have covered his 3 arb years and bought out his first FA year, with an option to buy out the second year for an undisclosed amount.
He looks to make about $12M over his first 2 arb years. Will he make more than $38M in his A3 year and the first year of free agency? Maybe, but not a lot more. That would take something like $13M in his A3 year (85% raise over A2) and then more than $25M in the first year of free agency. Not impossible, but unlikely to really zoom far past those numbers.
But teams look at 29 year old free agent pitchers different than they look at 30 year olds. So he probably thinks he gets a bigger overall payday in 2024 than he would in 2025. The team option for ’25 was probably a major sticking point too unless it was for $25M or more because if the White Sox exercise that he doesn’t get a shot at a 9 figure deal till he is 31, which is a lot harder to get than it is at 29. He also would have 2 more years to suffer a major injury before getting a shot at the big deal.
Basically, 4/$50M probably values those years about right, but if it changes his first FA contract from maybe 7/$220M (at age 29) to 5/$150M (at 31) so he comes out behind over the course of his career.
This is one of the most accurate and well thought out answers I have seen. Not blaming either side, simply making the point that it makes sense for the WS to want to lock him up and it makes sense for Gio to want to get to FA as young as possible.
I don’t see him getting 7/$220M or 5/$150M though to be honest. You look at the guys getting $30M AAV at age 29/31 and they are either on shorter deals or were simply putting up nastier numbers than he is. I doubt he even gets a 7 year offer, as there are only 5 SPs have gotten longer than 5 year deals since 2018 and only 2 of those 5 are above $30M AAV. There’s also only 5 SPs getting $30M AAV or higher on any length deal so to believe he is joining both clubs after his age 29 season I’d say is pretty lofty goal setting.
As a Sox fan, I will say I hope he earns that type of contract, but he’s more likely to get something in the ball park of a 5/$125M. Personally believe the best play for both sides would have been to take the 4/$50M with no 5th year club option. But neither side asked for my beliefs during negotiations, so oh well.
“For it to come down to a 50K difference prior to the filing, it’s like, ’Come on.’ It’s an upsetting part of the process. It’s why a lot of us don’t enjoy the business side of the process,” Giolito said.
===============================================
That’s a pure sense of entitlement. Either side can concede when it’s that close.
If neither side is conceding, then they must both feel entitled. Once again, I don’t understand why everyone wants to put the onus on the player. It’s ultimately the owner’s decision.
Because the owner didn’t say, “For it to come down to a 50K difference prior to the filing, it’s like, ’Come on.’ It’s an upsetting part of the process. It’s why a lot of us don’t enjoy the business side of the process,”
And as pointed out above…it’s not ultimately the owner’s decision, either side could concede. Your level of projection when it comes to supposed bias is impressive.
Because Reinsdorf isn’t obligated to address the media like Giolito is. Would you rather he lie about how he felt? What is it your concern how he feels about it anyhow? Why should a millionaire be the one to concede over a billionaire?
Wow! First off, $50K is nothing. If they came $50 short, it should have been accepted. On the other had, why not just give him the $50K. This makes them both look petty and stupid. That said, the Sox cannot afford to lose Gio after losing Rodon, period – especially because considering Dallas should not even be in the MLB but is making a boat load of money. Regarding an extension,, it should not be over 3 years and not go into FA, period. Give him 3 years @ $50M and move on. Thankfully, Dallas will be gone next year!!! Yay!
Does anyone remember when the Sox let Buehrle go and gave (was it 5 years?) to Danks because they didn’t want to pay Buehrle what he was worth?
Down right offensive. Bring Giolito home. Flaherty and Fried too. Bring the gang back together
“Don’t enjoy” the process of determining whether he’ll make $7.3 or $7.5 million to pitch 30-or-so times this year? Yeah, that’s a terrible burden.
I’d fire my agent. Next three years through arbitration he’s going to make $25M, with no guarantees against injury and he’ll be a free agent at his age 31 season. Your offered $50M until your age 32 season. He better hope he stays healthy and his next contract is worth $25M a year to break even.
This
If we’re stuck with Reinsdorf, I vote he moves the team! He can take his diaper changer Williams with along with his coin purse that only has pennies in it
We should vote that you are no longer should be a White Sox fan!
What a joke. He can easily get well over $100 million in 2024
GIolito is not worth Ace money as he is most certainly not an ace, not when Lynn (and Im sure Kopech) will pitcher better than him (and Lynn is much older), but worth more than what was offered. I think Hahn and Co.have gotten too used to Cuban players happy to rub two coins together (JRs type of player).
In hearing this stuff about being like 50K apart from a deal at some point I cannot help but to think back to the early 90’s when Jack McDowell and the White Sox were 1m dollars apart in contract negotiations….
sigh….Millionaires vs billionaires.. The difference is the owners will always make their money and then some, selling concessions, TV deals, ticket prices, parking, etc.. They will get that 50K (well, now more apparently) back in two seconds. They have a whole accounting dept to get that money one way or another. Its really simple, if you want the player, get the contract done now, don’t let it fester through the season. If you don’t want him, or believe he is a guy for your rotation, trade him, and hope it does not bite you in the @$$.later when he is on another club.
This is going to be an interesting year for Giolito. According to the interview with Giolito in the White Sox’s podcast he put on 20 lbs. during the off-season with focusing on his leg strength. Giolito has a goal to pitch over 200 innings for the first time in his career. This is going to be Giolito’s fourth full season as a starting pitcher, excluding the 2020 season, where he going to be 28 years old and is trying to see if he is an Ace or not. Personally, I think Giolito has the potential to be an Ace so it be interesting to see how strengthen his legs is going help his game.
Didn’t even respond with an offer hahaha. White sox low balling him whew
How were the White Sox low balling Giolito when he would have made more money last season, this season and next season than he would have made in arbitration last year, this year and next year? A response would be nice after reading everything else below this. The only thing was the White Sox were trying to get Giolito an extra year on the year he became an unrestricted free agent. If you look at my comment above you will see Giolito is betting on himself these next two seasons before he hits free agency with putting on 20lbs and worked on strengthening his legs to get over two hundred innings this season to being more dominating late in the season since he admitted that he started to slow down late in the season in White Sox’s podcast last week. It would not be surprising if the White Sox extend Giolito this season if he meets his expectations to what happens with Keuchel since he needs to hit 160 innings this season for his 2023 option to kick in. The White Sox are not dumb and know keeping Giolito around is crucial.