The Brewers’ rotation has been its primary strength for the past several seasons. Entering the year the club looked like the favorite in the NL Central (or at least a co-favorite) on the strength of the three-headed monster of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and 2021 National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Brewers starters have indeed been excellent both in the eyes of traditional and newer metrics, ranking fifth in the Majors with a collective 3.36 ERA, fourth with a 3.43 FIP and third with a 3.44 SIERA.
The route the Brewers have taken to get there, however, isn’t the one any would’ve forecast heading into the season. Burnes has been predictably excellent, working to a 2.50 ERA on the back of a dominant K-BB% and thus far making a strong bid for a repeat win in the Cy Young balloting. Woodruff, however, is struggling through his worst full season as a starter thanks to an alarming spike in home-run rate, and he recently hit the IL with a high ankle sprain. Peralta, meanwhile, pitched just 38 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball before a lat strain sent him to the injured list. He’s not expected back anytime soon.
So, how have the Brewers continued on as one of the game’s best starting staffs? They’ve received solid if unspectacular work from fifth starter Adrian Houser and some intriguing work from rookie Aaron Ashby, but the biggest driving factor that’s allowed them to weather the Woodruff struggles and Peralta injury has been Eric Lauer’s transformation from back-of-the-rotation arm to what looks like the next great Brewers starter.
Acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in a deal that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego, Lauer was seen as a back-of-the-rotation option for the Brewers at the time of the swap. That’s understandable, as from 2018-19, he’d been just that with the Padres. Between those two seasons, Lauer tallied 261 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball with a below-average strikeout rate (20.6%), a solid walk rate (8.4%) and below-average ground-ball tendencies (38.9%). Generally speaking, he fit the soft-tossing-lefty mold with which most baseball fans are familiar: strike-thrower who doesn’t overpower opponents but has good command of the zone and keeps his team in the game more often than not.
As recently as the 2020-21 offseason, the trade to acquire Lauer and Urias looked quite lopsided in San Diego’s favor. Lauer tossed just 11 innings for the Brewers in 2020, while Urias provided no real offensive value through 120 plate appearances that season. Grisham, meanwhile, was excellent while playing 59 of 60 games for the Padres that summer, and Davies had the best year of his career by a wide margin (which helped the Padres subsequently include him in the trade to acquire Yu Darvish from the Cubs). Recent play from Urias and especially Lauer has flipped the narrative, though.
Lauer opened the 2021 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club and spent the first month of the year there before being recalled to the Majors on April 29. Over his first nine appearances (seven starts, two from the bullpen), he posted a nondescript 4.50 ERA/5.08 FIP and garnered little attention. At that point, few would’ve pegged Lauer as a critical cog to the Brewers’ immediate rotation plans.
On July 3 of last season, however, something changed. Lauer threw a slider. It wasn’t the first of his career, but it was his first of the season. He wound up throwing the pitch just under 20% of the time that day, taking his retooled breaking ball for a test drive against a hapless Pirates lineup with good success. Lauer has featured the pitch regularly since, and it’s difficult to overstate just how important it has been to his arsenal.
Since re-debuting the pitch on July 3 last season, FanGraphs ranks Lauer sixth among all Major League starting pitchers in slider runs above average. His slider trails only Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Tarik Skubal and, ever-so-slightly, Brad Keller. That’s a bit misleading, though, as all of those pitchers other than Scherzer throw their slider more often than Lauer. Keller has thrown his slider at a 38.7% clip in that time, while Cease has used his exactly a third of the time. Ohtani is at 28.8% and Skubal at 26.8%. Lauer’s 19.9% usage rate from 2021-22 comes in at exactly half that of Keller. In other words, on a per-pitch basis, Lauer’s slider has been substantially move valuable than all of Cease, Ohtani, Skubal and Keller.
In fact, when shifting to look at slider value per 100 pitches thrown, Scherzer is the only starter in baseball (min. 50 innings) whose slider has generated more value. (Notably, had the beginning of Lauer’s slider usage not coincided almost perfectly with Jacob deGrom’s 2021 season-ending injury, he’d have ranked above Lauer as well, given that deGrom unsurprisingly had the best per-pitch slider in MLB last year.)
Lauer wound up throwing 224 sliders from July 3 onward last season, and in the 73 plate appearances that culminated with that pitch, his opponents batted just .123/.219/.215. He’s thrown 201 sliders this season, finished off 61 plate appearances with the pitch, and yielded just a .140/.180/.193 output to opponents. This season, Statcast ranks Lauer sixth among big league pitchers (min. 50 PAs) with a .221 expected wOBA against his slider. Given the pitch’s success, it’s little surprise that Lauer is throwing it at a career-high 21.9% clip so far in 2022, and you could argue he ought to feature it even more heavily.
All told, since Lauer reincorporated the slider into his arsenal, he’s made 23 starts and pitched to a 2.40 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. He’s had some good fortune, evidenced by a .247 average on balls in play and an 83.6% strand rate, but even accounting for some likely regression in those areas, Lauer looks like a completely different pitcher. That’s especially true because the addition of a slider doesn’t appear to be the only meaningful change that’s led to his breakout.
Entering the 2022 season, Lauer had averaged 91.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. He saw a slight uptick from 91.7 mph (2018-20) to 92.5 mph in 2021, however, and he’s sitting at a career-high 93.7 mph so far in 2022. The left-hander told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel near the end of Spring Training (where he’d also shown a noticeable jump in velocity readings) that his strong finish in 2021 allowed him to shift his offseason focus from searching for flaws in his delivery and refining his mechanics to building strength. Said Lauer at the time:
“It was more a focus on strength training and finally getting used to my body being synched up like it is now. I spent a lot of time this offseason focusing on upper body movement and strength so I think we’re finally seeing everything line up.”
Lauer’s fastball hasn’t morphed into a dominant offering with the newfound velocity, but it’s performed much better — as one would expect upon jumping nearly two miles per hour in a two-year span. The 2020-21 version of Lauer’s heater was a decidedly below-average offering, according to run values from both FanGraphs and Statcast. Both now rate it as a roughly average pitch. Lauer has posted a career-best 12.9% swinging-strike rate (swings-and-misses per total pitches thrown) on his four-seamer in 2022. His 33.3% whiff rate (swings-and-misses per swing) on the four-seamer is up from 26.5% in 2021 and way up from the 21.5% he posted in 2018-19 with San Diego.
Lauer is far from a two-pitch starter, as he’ll also work in a cutter, curveball and more occasional changeup (which also rates excellently on a per-pitch basis). But the improvements he’s made to his four-seamer and especially to his slider have vaulted him from a fairly run-of-the-mill back-end starter to a legitimate weapon who’s helped the Brewers offset downturns in production from Woodruff and Peralta.
Barring an extension, the Brewers control Lauer for two years beyond the current campaign. That timeframe lines up directly with all three of Burnes, Woodruff and Houser. Peralta is signed through 2024, and his contract contains affordable 2025 and 2026 club options for Milwaukee. The aforementioned Ashby, who perhaps merits a deep dive of his own, is controllable all the way through 2027.
Suffice it to say, the long-term outlook for the Brewers’ staff is quite bright. And, if Milwaukee can get Woodruff and Peralta healthy and closer to 2021 form by the season’s final month, their top four starters — paired with Josh Hader and Devin Williams — will again give them the type of formidable staff that can carry a deep postseason run, provided the Brewers’ bats speak louder than they did last October (six total runs in four NLDS games against the Braves).
Lauer has a 3.91 xERA. Solid, but not ace-like.
Not sure what xERA is but his over all era is 2.38 with 5 wins . How is that not ace like
What’s his xBOFA tho?
This may be true but what’s his xyz’ra? That’s the best measure.
His Metaverse ERA stinks too.
Great article. Brewers are my #2 team, and as a Sox fan, I love any pitcher who can dominate the cubs!
If only we could develop some solid hitters. With this staff we are a WS threat but the offense is horrendous and Yelich is looking worse and worse every year
In a lot of ways, this past series reminded me how similar our teams are constructed. We hope to get a bat boost from Niño and maybe you guys trade for a stick soon. Best of luck the rest of the way and I won’t be surprised if we meet in the Postseason!
As I wrote yesterday, the Padres and Brewers are mirror images of one another. Built on 1) run suppression – defense and pitching; 2) strong fundamental play; and 3) getting one more run then the team they’re playing.
Enjoyed watching most of their series this past weekend.
You sum it up well, Samuel! Shoulda coulda woulda been a 4 game sweep… but great to take 3 of 4!
Even when Adames and Renfroe get off the IL the Brewers will need to add 2 bats by the trading deadline.
Rhys Hoskins would be nice as a run producing DH. McCutchen isn’t cutting it.
This is a repeat of the LDS against the Braves. We will lose many games 2-1 and 1-0. Not fair to ask Burnes to throw shutouts. He’s picked up the offense so many times. Needs to be reciprocated. Miss the days of fielder braun hart.
Agree Hoskins would be a great add, so would Benintendi, Cruz, Bell, Cron and if Boston starts losing again, Martinez or Boegarts. Agree they need to add 2 bats.
Lauer is a nice pitcher, but Ashby is their next TOR starter. Ashby has 2 plus pitches in his sinker & CH, and a double plus SL to go with fast improving command.
They will need all this pitching to have a decent chance to beat out the Cardinals, who are vastly better than projections and one of the best teams in the NL.
There already beating the cards and they have played 17 days in a row 18 games in 17 days the cards haven’t done that… and there still second fiddle…
Laur would be your ace cardinals fan we are glad to have him as a 4… numbers don’t lie he’s the 5th best pitcher in all of baseball since last July they just showed you the numbers
Before yesterday, the Cardinals played 12 games in 11 days. It wasn’t quite the same but pretty close.
You have a really ugly personality.
Two no… there injured now two bats?? Where…?? I can see a utility guy and a bullpen arm…. two bats?? Nope who you going to sit when there healthy?? Narcotic at catcher? No he’s rated as the 5th best catcher in the game.. roudy maybe but he’s Been great… Wong?? No he’s ok and no replacement out there. Adames no not happening…. Urius at third no not happening… the outfield yelich is what it is and renfroe isn’t going anywhere.. maybe center but Taylor has played decent there…. Where do you get 2 position players
Who cares if they are injured? The deadline is still a month away. They are #2 caliber pitchers. Woodruff hasn’t even hit FA yet, and Peralta was signed to a long term deal at a VERY cheap rate for his talent.
You have a screw loose and are deeply disturbed and write like a 3rd grader with a learning disability.
The value of those two guys is WAY higher than you believe. They are worth a fringe All Star caliber bat.
In fact, you might be able to dump Yelich along with Woodruff to get an All Star caliber OF from a rebuilding team. Then you could trade Peralta and Wong as the throw in for an All Star caliber 2B. Those are the weak spots in the line up (no one would want Cain).
Then the Brewers are set.
And you are still an idiot.
Where do the 2 bats play where?? Catcher? Nope… first maybe but roudy has been great… second with Wong?? Nope… short with Adames nope? 3rd with urius nope?? Yelich it is what it is he’s staying in the lineup.. Taylor had been great in center so that’s a nope… renfroe when healthy is amazing so that’s a nope… where do you get 2 bats
mustache1018;
Allow me to respond in understandable English……
See, many teams – including the Brewers – don’t start 8 position players and play them the entire game, using that line-up unless someone is injured. You might want to check out some box scores.
The Brewers need more offensive production from from DH, 3B, 1B, and yes, LF. If they stay healthy SS and 2B are fine, particularly with the defense they bring. C and CF could be improved, but if the C is handling the pitching staff well it doesn’t matter if he’s hitting .150. CF’s that can field the position and also hit are next to impossible to find; the Brewers are fine with what they have there.
In short, they need to do some platooning at DH, 3B, 1B; a nice LH bat to play some in RF against strong RH pitching; and it wouldn’t hurt to sit Yelich down against good LH pitching.
We should all hope that guy goes away.
He’s incoherent and doesn’t understand baseball.
The article focused on Lauer, but Ashby might have greater upside. If that kid develops then Brewers are set. A scary team if they secure more offense.
Which they could now do, since both Woodruff and Peralta are a bit overrated.
I’d trade Woody this year for a bat at a position of long term need. Maybe trade Freddie next year or in the off season. Both are having bad years.
Don’t know about that. He is still bad right now but he is definitely better than last year
for soooo many years, we had hitting but just terrible pitching (minus one decent starter….aka sheets, Gallardo, greinke, etc)
now we have one of the best and most complete staffs in the majors……and we can’t hit water if we fell out of a boat. No comment on how that yelich boat anchor contract is looking right now….
Sighhhhh…..
Are you forgetting the great Doug Davis, Seth McClung, Shawn Marcum and Dave Bush?
I wonder where that dude is who said like a month ago (probably the day after Yelich got his last meaningful hit) how he’s still underpaid.
Yeeesh, I mean he’s too good to play this badly, right? WTH happened? Back injury, I get it, but he’s been awful to watch.
Is it even physical though? I suspect something isn’t clicking between the ears.
I’ll never understand amateur psychologist fans who somehow just know when a player’s issues are in their head.
And you lack reading comprehension skills. I said I suspect, not that I know.
However, don’t you think if it was physical he would say something, or the team would put him on the IL or something?
My apologies. I read so many comments from people who deem themselves amateur sports psychologists, and it gets old.
It’s better than the lazy “he must have been using PED’s when he was good” with even less evidence. And im not just talking about about Yelich.
Not sure how Yelly’s struggles could be physical anymore, outside of the idea that maybe he’s lost bar speed somehow. The fact is, he hasn’t been the same since he bounced that ball off his knee in ’19, and the Crew could be paying $26MM/year for the next 6 years, for below .700 OPS production. Not ideal for a small market team.
Mehhhhh I know these are some of the best pitchers left in the game but I wouldn’t consider them aces. I’m not even sure how many “aces” are even left in baseball. Scherzer and Degrom are older and injury prone but when they are healthy they are aces, Kershaw maybe (definitely used to be one not so sure anymore)….I wouldn’t even classify Cole as an ace.
Man starting pitching is becoming extinct and it really is a shame. And I’m sorry I don’t believe any of y’all who say you would rather see todays starting pitchers versus 10 years ago. Watching pitchers exit in the 4th-5th innings to only see the game decided hours later by the bullpen definitely isn’t as exciting as a matchup like CC vs Pedro, Randy Johnson vs Smoltz.
It’s not these pitchers faults either, this is what they’ve been taught from a young age. It’s just a shame bc it would be such a marketable part of the game today.
Over rated lol so burns is not an ace??! Wow he just won a cy young but he’s not an ace to you step in the batters box let’s see if you can handle it
Missed my whole point. I’m sorry you never got to see the big pitching matchups I did only 10-15 years ago. If you saw them you’d realize what a great part of the game it was having two heavyweight pitchers battle it out mentally and physically all game long.
Like I said it’s not these pitchers faults. If they were developed a different way growing up and in the minors they easily could pitch that way and be huge selling points for baseball. But that isn’t cost effective for front offices so that is the sole reason the development of a pitcher was abandoned.
You don’t have to be a future Hall of Fame starting pitcher to be an ace.
I think a lot of people overuse the term Ace.
And a lot of others overreact (good or bad) when it’s used regarding a pitcher they like..or don’t.
The Brewers develop front end rotation talent every year. Whoever is on the pitching development and scouting side there should be compensated heavily. Maybe hitter development has lagged (there are OFs coming)- but the Brewers are a solid organization year in year out. Meanwhile here in Texas they have Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak swinging for the fences with every cut and pitching development to them is dumpster diving in the 35+ talent pool every winter.
Well, let’s not get too carried away! They’ve had some luck in the last 3-4 years, so probably credit the scouts a little too. But yeah, whoever helped get these guys up probably will be poached soon… Waited a long time to see a great rotation. Probably since ‘83??
Once Stearns breaks free and Cohen gets him I’m sure all the scouts and front office personal won’t be far behind. I think if the Brewers win the pennant or World Series or something he gets out of his deal early. Hopefully it’s the World Series for brewers fans sake bc he def knows how to run an organization with limited resources.
Cause you need us to win to get a good gm… word is in wisconsin he’s ready to sign an extension for “part ownership”) can’t believe you want us to win to get a gm like ours find your own your not untitled your already got your rich owner
And mark is saying all the right words just because you think you can buy him I would be so sure he don’t like how it went down last time in New York he’s admitted to come back to Milwaukee vs a dumpster fire
If Angel Hernandez is an umpire, I can’t take MLB seriously
I hope things work out for Lauer, but he was given ample opportunity to stick with SD. Urias was expendable. I’m glad he seems to have found a spot on a weak hitting Brewers team.
As long as Lauer pitches vs the LAD like he did when he was in SDP .. I am good… dude was like 1.35 ERA or some absurd # when gaming LAD and well over 4.50 when facing the rest. Obviously he has re-invented himself into a very solid pitcher from those days and looks like a trade that worked both ways especially when you consider the Davies for Yu flip… Yu + Grishman vs Lauer + Urias .. I like the SDP side a little more but really a solid move by both sides
Davies was a salary dump. The Cubbies did that deal for the 4 prospects received. And it’s Grisham.
Brewers got the best of that trade by A LOT.
Might be time to trade both Woody and Freddie. They are the two most inconsistent and with Ashby also emerging and free agency looming for both, it might be time to find some long term hitting solutions.
The team is a contender with two more good bats.
Brewers Six man rotation should be Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, Small. Move Houser to bullpen to help out Williams, Box, and Hader. Then it’s time to cut ties with Cain and McCutchen. Then I’m going to trade away Wong for anything. Then bring up Weimer, Turang, and Dillard. We’re not hitting so might as give some young guys a chance with some fire. Who knows it could be the next Yount, Molitor and Charlie Moore . Why not if it doesn’t workout we send them all back down
Stubby, I’d really enjoy seeing you manage a team. As long as it wasn’t my Brewers! Lol. I wish I had that much enthusiasm for the AAAA guys as you do each year! Definitely an optimistic person!
Hey atleast I’m consistent lol. But you gotta admit that there have been right to a point on some guys in giving them a shot over the years that have had some success . I was the first on a lot of guys that should be given a chance to play Cooper, Williams, Sanchez, Moore, Bickford, Barker, Taylor, Haniger, Rasmussen, Grisham, and Dubon now I’m not saying that they are the best in the league and I have been wrong on a bunch too. I do believe I have a pretty decent idea of figuring out which guys are ready to get a shot at the majors. I watch these guys more then just going by the numbers like some. I love talking baseball and hear people’s ideas in improving this team. I have been a Brewer fan since 1979. Hell I wouldn’t mind seeing maybe Yankees and Brewers do a trade like maybe Perez for Torres
I remember Lauer dominating the Dodgers and being mediocre at best against everyone else when he was a Padre. Good too see him finding some success in Milwaukee.
How good would the Padres be if PRELLER NEVER MADE A TRADE?!?
To ask in terms of his metrics, what’s Preller’s xTR(c)-^|#$@\~`?
~
Often intrigued by “journeymen” that all of a sudden find it.
I think the pitching coach and bullpen coach deserve credit here. They deserve for me to know who the hell they are and I don’t because I only casually watch Milwaukee I’m a Red Sox fan. So whomever you are, I know a team that pays better in need of your services
I know the last two paragraphs of the article were written to express optimism about the length of contractual control over the entire staff but I read it as though the team has two more seasons after this one to make it to the World Series before everything comes crashing down.
Hader hits free agency after next season and Wood the year after that, so the turn-over will begin then, as you say. The key for the Crew (as with the Rays and A’s) is to keep the player development line moving, and adroitly navigate the FA market with mid-level pick-ups. With Ashby looking good and now Lauer (and maybe Small) they seem to be on the right path.
Happy for Lauer. A question. Does the slider put more stress on the arm than other pitches? Any concern with how often he throws it?
How often he throws it? It just said in the article that he only uses it 19.9% of the time
@Brayden. Good point. Compared to the others mentioned, he does throw it less frequently. Any concerns though that he went from 0% to 20%? I’m thinking the other guys have always thrown it and at the percentages mentioned?
They could have 4 of their starters out for the season and still finish 10 games in front of St Louis.