As has been the case the past few summers, the Orioles enter deadline season among the game’s likeliest sellers. Baltimore has been amidst a full rebuild, and they’re again all but certain to finish at the bottom of the American League East. The O’s have shown signs of progress, graduating top prospect Adley Rutschman to the big leagues and going 14-12 last month, but they’re still set to field offers on a number of players.
Among the likeliest to be dealt are first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini and corner outfielder Anthony Santander. Mancini is set to hit free agency at the end of this season, and as of Spring Training, the club had not engaged his representatives in talks about a potential long-term deal. Barring an out-of-the-blue extension coming together over the next few weeks, the O’s figure to flip Mancini to a contender for this season’s final couple months. (Mancini’s agreement with the O’s to avoid arbitration this spring included a $10MM mutual option for 2023. Given the caliber of season he’s having, he seems unlikely to trigger his end of the pact and forego a possibility at a multi-year free agent deal).
The Mets are among the teams that has checked in on Mancini, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. New York skipper Buck Showalter is plenty familiar with the Notre Dame product, having managed in Baltimore through 2018. That encompassed Mancini’s first two full seasons as a big leaguer, so Showalter had an up-close look at his clubhouse fit and work habits.
Mancini is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. Through 295 plate appearances entering play Friday, the 30-year-old is hitting .280/.356/.421. Mancini has only hit seven home runs, but his 20% strikeout rate is a career-low. While his power output has dipped, particularly relative to his 35-homer 2019 breakout campaign, his hard contact rate is still well above-average.
Pete Alonso is having a great season at first base for the Mets, but the club figures to look into external possibilities at designated hitter. New York has gotten a .230/.311/.383 showing from the DH position, exactly league average production by measure of wRC+. Between Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis, the Mets entered the season with a seeming surplus of bat-first players who could serve as the team’s DH. Smith has instead struggled for a second straight season, hitting .194/.283/.265 in 113 MLB plate appearances and spending some time in Triple-A. Davis has a .243/.333/.345 line over 171 trips to the dish, hitting only two homers in 51 games. Like Mancini, Davis has far better batted ball metrics than his power results would suggest though.
The Mets are one of plenty of teams that either already has or will check in with O’s general manager Mike Elias regarding Mancini. Santander also figures to attract some amount of interest, and Heyman writes in a separate piece that Baltimore is willing to make him available. After a down 2021, he’s hit 14 home runs through this season’s first half. The switch-hitting outfielder owns a .235/.329/.424 line in just under 300 trips to the plate.
For the first time in his career, Santander has an on-base percentage above the league average, a testament to an approach overhaul that has allowed him to work more free passes. After swinging at more than half the pitches he’d seen in every season of his career through 2021, Santander has cut his swing rate to just over 46% this year. With that more patient approach has come a 10.5% walk rate that’s more than double the 5.1% clip he’d posted in his career through last season.
While the O’s are under time pressure to extend or trade Mancini, the club could elect to hold onto Santander if they don’t receive offers to their liking. The 27-year-old entered this season with three-plus years of big league service. He’s controllable through the end of 2024 via arbitration and making a modest $3.2MM this season. As for Baltimore’s other controllable outfielders, Heyman unsurprisingly writes the team would “have to be blown away” to move either Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays. Baltimore can keep each of Mullins and Hays through 2025.
Aside from Mancini and Santander, Baltimore’s next-most likely trade candidate may well be breakout closer Jorge López. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored yesterday, López has transformed from struggling starter to lights-out reliever. Through 37 innings, the right-hander has a microscopic 0.73 ERA. He’s struck out 27.1% of opponents and generated ground-balls at a massive 64% clip, a combination that is sure to lead to plenty of calls from teams looking to add a late-game weapon.
As part of a reader mailbag, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that Baltimore would listen to offers on López, at least as a matter of due diligence. Controllable through 2024 and playing this season on a $1.5MM salary, the 29-year-old could affordably stick around for the next few seasons. It’d no doubt take a significant haul for Elias and his staff to pull the trigger on a deal, but other clubs will try to pry López away before the August 2 deadline.
Should also be noted that Mancini has something like 8-10 expected homers. Some of that is the new OPACY LF wall but he’s had some tough luck at other stadiums too.
Tigers are looking to unload Schoop. Any updated news on him anywhere else besides Philly?
Why unload Mancini, if you’re Baltimore? He’s solid and has 3-4 decent years left, if they expect to contend. You’ll only get mid level prospects, at best. Better hit on them
If I’m them, I trade him for whatever than resign him for 4/80 or so
Mancini is not a 20 mill player.. about 12 mill a year is more like it
But why would he re-sign with Baltimore? Why would anyone?
$$$$$$
He’s 30 years old. He won’t likely have 3-4 years of prime left. In fact I’d expect decline to set in next year. Fans think good hitters decline in the mid-thirties but the reality is they decline much sooner and most often more suddenly than expected.
Not every hitter is like Nelson Cruz.
@Cosmos; I’m with ya!. And to your point, the Braves priority was Olson, not Freeman. Matt is 4.5 yrs younger than Freddy. Any chatter by Atlanta during negotiations was not to get Freddy’s attention, but Matt’s. The Braves got their guy and at the terms they were looking for.
So, yes, Mancini, is definitely “on the blocks” because of age, but also because, maybe John Angelos is not ready to open up his wallet, yet? What’s sad here is we didn’t get a look at Rodriguez because of injury and Hall is having issues at AAA. If those 2 guys produced at “show” level this year, John A opens up his wallet?
So who do we get for Mancini? Unfortunately, not what the O’s need. But if there is a contender out there right now that has a need for a Mancini and a Lopez, the O’s get their player. Who? The two of them packaged, gets that starter pitching prospect with a “show” arrival date of 24/25!
For that price I would prefer a “show” arrival time of 2022/2023. The Dodgers are loaded with young pitching in the minors. They would likely prefer Santander in a deal. Tate, Santander and an “A” ball prospect in a package for a starter.
@CurtBlefary; I like it. With Betts beat up and Belinger struggling, switch hitting Santander makes a lot of sense. And Tate has worked himself in to a viable late innings guy. Maybe a Nordby or Prieto from AA not A, all for a 22/23 starter guy?
To improve the team is the simple answer. Mancini is redundant, not youngh and nearing free agency. Also, not cheap. Trade for the betterment of the team`s near future instead of holding for the present of a non-playoff team
The 20 year rebuild
They’re only in the 5th year of this rebuild which isn’t too far off from how a lot of fans think it’s supposed to work. I tend to agree with the frustration that it shouldn’t take too long (and doesn’t seem to be winding down anytime soon) but to a lot of fans a five year stretch of losing is practically a requirement to success, yet when it happens no one seems to think it’s actually a good plan.
Well, the Marlins are working on something like their 13th year, so anything is possible.
You do not know baseball — obvious from your error-filled comment.
Well, there goes Lopez’s value. And Adley is worthless at the plate.
Really wish the Braves would go get Trey. Duvall just isn’t getting the job done well enough and honestly, Ozuna has question marks as well. I know Eddie is on the way back but I’m skeptical at the moment and would prefer someone a little more established. Trey would boost the lineup a lot. Since this is the comment section of a website and I may or may not be using restroom at the moment, here’s my trade offer. Drew Waters, Freddy Tarnok, and Ozuna (we eat half the contract) for Trey.
Lopez and Santander are not going anywhere. Mancini will probably be traded for some prospects. Baltimore is starting to turn the corner and Lopez ans Santander are going to be a part of that.
@Orioles Fan; Is Mancini enough alone to get what the Orioles need which I believe is a starting pitcher prospect ready at MLB level by 24/25 or multiple players to get someone for 22/23? We don’t just wanna give him away?
No they will have to add someone in the package. Maybe Bannon or Diaz from Norfolk.
#Orioles Fan, Bannon or Diaz. with Mancini. Agreed, that should do it!
Doubt Bannon or Diaz would increase the return for what you’d get for Mancini alone
The O’s are loaded with hitting talent that most believe will pan out to at least be average mlb players. We don’t need 10 outfielders in the mlb and prospects in the minors can also get us that pitcher we need
Lopez would undoubtedly bring the biggest haul. He’s been lights out this year and is under control for another two years. Their pen is strong enough and someone else will step up. (albeit probably not at the same level). But he’d absolutely bring in a blue-chip prospect, right?
The Mets need to go all in on Contreras. The guy is a perfect fit the Mets as he can catch and then DH when not behind the plate.
The Cubs are a team that could consider dealing Contreras for Smith or Davis and a strong but not too prospect.
Wishful thinking. I don’t think the Cubs would do that one. They’re in the driver’s seat and will be looking for a top level prospect. If the Mets don’t offer that, another team will
I return to my posts that I’ve been putting up for months – when do the Orioles choose a group of players to build around?
I know Mancini won’t be an Oriole on August 1. Probably neither will Santander. Means would not have been if he had been healthy. I’m not worried about losing bullpen players…they are easily replaced and they won’t get much for them.
Grayson Rodriguez won’t pitch in MLB at least until the start of 2023, if not later. Neither will DL Hall. Who knows if either of those two blossom into actual rotation-quality starters.
Folks are posting about prospects who will come up in 24/25. What happens in 24/25? Its time to think about trading Hays and Mountcastle who will be coming off of team control. And the cycle never ends.
What the team is telling fans is “2022 is a write off. You may as well forget about 2023. Maybe we get a miracle in 2024 or 2025, but if not a true miracle, we’ll be getting rid of anything not tied down. Meanwhile we’ll keep being as cheap as possible.”
Smart teams do not take a static approach. The Rays do not set in stone prospects to build around and stick to them for 7 years., But you don`t use the same demand on them
@Thornton Mellon, Hope all is well. Yep, a lot of “ifs” and “whens” scenarios out there. And, as you know, I’m one of the 24/25 “folks”. I’ll say this, I love this board/site! A wonderful diversion/escape from all the heaviness out there in the real world. It’s fun playing pretend GM. Oh, back to 24/25 as back to winning ways. By that time, Rutchsman, Rodriguez, Hall, Henderson, Westerburg (sp), maybe others down on the farm will be well acclimated to big league play. Hopefully! Because of this, John Angelos will be comfortable opening up the checkbook to pay guys like Mountcastle and Hayes what they deserve (based on performance) and also pay free agents what they deserve. Plus, I like how Atlanta and Houston operate which is from the head not the heart way of decision making. IE. The Braves cutting ties with Freeman and Houston the same with Correa. I see this in Elias as well. That’s just me.
All this said, what the hell do I know? Bottom line. I’m just thrilled to have something to do outside of dealing with the daily drivel coming from the real world. Question. Thornton, why are you here?
C Yards Jeff- I come to MLBTR to get away from politics! You can’t even watch the games anymore without seeing it, sports used to be my mistake. Now you have to search hard to find one where there isn’t politics (and the absolute worst site is Camden Chat). I am a Baltimore native who left that general area in 2014 one day hoping the Orioles will become that team again when I was a kid, good to contend and win 90+ annually. You?
I have a friend still in B-more who I trust to give me the baseball knowledge who goes to A and AA games a lot. He has said all along Rutschman was “the real deal” and was clear he isn’t “Wieters 2.0”. Now he’s starting to focus on some of the other guys in A and AA to give me a sense.
But 37-44 at the break is much better than I expected this team to be. They haven’t hit the worst part of their schedule but the “over” on my 61-101 preseason prediction is looking better than it did 40 games ago. The problem is they’ll lose momentum when they make trades this month of many of the guys who are propping up the current W/L
They should definitely trade Lopez now before he turns back into a pumpkin or gets injured.