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Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

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This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.



Brewers Place Adrian Houser On IL With Flexor Strain

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JULY 1: Milwaukee placed Houser on the IL with a flexor strain. Counsell characterized testing as positive, suggesting the organization is hopeful Houser could begin a throwing program again within a few weeks (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

JUNE 30: Brewers righty Adrian Houser departed tonight’s start in Pittsburgh in the third inning after experiencing tightness in his throwing elbow. Manager Craig Counsell said after the game that Houser was headed back to Milwaukee for further examination but was sure to land on the 15-day injured list (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

That’s an alarming turn of events, although more will obviously known once Houser goes through testing over the coming days. The 29-year-old has generally been an effective and durable arm over the past three and a half seasons. Aside from a brief absence due to COVID-19 protocols last summer, Houser had avoided the IL since recovering from a 2016 Tommy John procedure.

The sinkerballer has typically been one of the game’s preeminent ground-ball pitchers. Houser induced worm-burners on almost 60% of batted balls in both 2020 and ’21. That rate has dipped to a solid but not elite 47.1% this season, and he’s not coincidentally posted a 4.72 ERA through 76 1/3 innings. Slightly disappointing showing aside, Houser’s reliability in taking the ball 15 times has proven quite valuable for a Milwaukee staff hit hard by injuries.

The Brew Crew will be without Freddy Peralta until August because of a shoulder issue. Brandon Woodruff just returned from a month-long absence, while Aaron Ashby has missed the past ten days with forearm tightness. The southpaw could make his return as soon as this weekend, but getting Woodruff and Ashby back comes right at the time as the club loses Houser for at least a couple weeks. Jason Alexander and Chi Chi González are the top candidates to step into Houser’s rotation role alongside Woodruff, Ashby, Corbin Burnes and Eric Lauer.

Astros Promote Korey Lee

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The Astros are promoting catching prospect Korey Lee to make his major league debut, as was first reported by Mark Berman of Fox 26 (on Twitter). Backup catcher Jason Castro is headed to the 10-day injured list with left knee discomfort. To clear space for Lee on the 40-man roster, lefty reliever Blake Taylor is being transferred from the 15-day to the 60-day IL.

Lee is a former supplemental first-rounder, having been taken 32nd overall in the 2019 draft. A Cal-Berkeley product, he hadn’t been seen by many public prospect evaluators as a first-round talent at the time. Houston’s decision to nab him early looks strong in retrospect, as Lee has played his way to the majors a little less than three years later.

The righty-hitting backstop has also raised his stock in the eyes of most evaluators. Each of Baseball America and FanGraphs placed him among the game’s top 100 overall prospects heading into the season. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of the Athletic each placed him just outside their top 100 and ranked him among the three best farmhands in the Houston system.

Across the board, those outlets suggested Lee could develop into a capable #1 catcher at his peak. His carrying tool is an arm that garners grades between plus and plus-plus (a 60 or 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale), and he’s generally regarded as a solid or better overall defender. Lee’s bat is more of a question, as he’s struggled against upper level pitching after mashing in the low minors.

The 2022 season has been particularly challenging, as Lee carries only a .226/.285/.419 line with ten home runs through 270 plate appearances at Triple-A Sugar Land. He’s flashed some power, with a .194 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) that’s north of the league average, but he’s only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances against an elevated 27% strikeout rate.

Given those struggles against upper minors pitching, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lee eventually optioned back to Sugar Land. The Astros have long placed a premium on defense behind the plate, though, as evidenced by their commitment to the light-hitting Martín Maldonado in recent years. Maldonado will remain the primary option, while Lee will take Castro’s spot as his backup while the latter is out. Houston would’ve had to add Lee to the 40-man roster at the end of this season anyhow to keep him from being taken in next winter’s Rule 5 draft.

Taylor, meanwhile, has been out since June 4 with discomfort in his throwing elbow. There’s no clear timetable for his return, and he’ll now be ineligible to pitch in the majors until the first week of August. Injuries to Taylor and Parker Mushinski have left manager Dusty Baker to handle an all right-handed bullpen at times, and it stands to reason the front office will look into acquiring a southpaw over the next few weeks.

Mets To Activate Max Scherzer On Tuesday

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Mets ace Max Scherzer tells reporters he’ll be activated from the injured list and return to the Major League mound next Tuesday when the team is in Cincinnati (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

It’ll be the first appearance in just over six weeks for Scherzer, who suffered an oblique strain in mid-May. That came with a six-to-eight week recovery timetable, and the eight-time All-Star wound up landing on the earlier end of that estimate. Needless to say, that’s a welcome development given Scherzer’s importance to the club.

At the time of the injury, New York sat seven games clear of their competitors in the NL East. That gap has been closed to 3 1/2 entering play Friday, although that’s in large part due to an excellent run from the defending champion Braves. The Mets have gone 21-15 in Scherzer’s absence, regressing a bit from their early-season form but generally continuing to play well in spite of the absence of their two co-aces. Jacob deGrom, of course, has yet to pitch this season after suffering a scapular injury during Spring Training.

Signed to a record-setting three-year contract over the winter, Scherzer had continued to thrive in his new environs before getting hurt. Through his first eight starts as a Met, he’s tossed 49 2/3 frames of 2.54 ERA ball, striking out an elite 30.6% of opposing hitters.

Royals Claim Ryan Weiss, Designate Matt Peacock For Assignment

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The Royals have claimed right-hander Ryan Weiss off waivers from the D-backs and optioned him to Triple-A Omaha, per a club announcement. Right-hander Matt Peacock was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Meanwhile, fellow righty Wyatt Mills, whom the Royals acquired from the Mariners in this week’s Carlos Santana trade, has been recalled from Omaha to take Peacock’s spot on the big league roster. He’ll be making his team debut when he gets into a game.

Weiss, 24, was Arizona’s fourth-round pick back in 2018 and ranked 18th among D-backs farmhands a year later in 2019. At the time, BA praised his prototypical starter’s frame, athleticism, delivery and a repertoire fronted by three above-average pitches. However, Weiss has posted lackluster results in Double-A and pitched poorly in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting since that time, and the Snakes have moved him to a bullpen role this season. In 26 2/3 frames on the year, he’s logged an unsightly 5.74 ERA (which includes eight runs in 9 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level).

The 28-year-old Peacock has split the 2022 season between these same two teams — D-backs and Royals — pitching to a combined 5.40 ERA in 10 innings. He made his big league debut with Arizona last season but struggled to the tune of a 4.90 ERA over the life of 86 1/3 innings. Peacock owns a career 3.02 ERA in Double-A but has just 18 rocky Triple-A innings and 96 1/3 similarly tough MLB frames under his belt so far. The Royals will have a week to trade him, pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Marlins Select Billy Hamilton, Designate Erik Gonzalez

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The Marlins announced a series of roster moves Friday, selecting the contract of veteran outfielder Billy Hamilton from Triple-A Jacksonville and designating infielder Erik Gonzalez for assignment to clear roster space. Miami also reinstated Joey Wendle from the 10-day injured list and placed slugger Jorge Soler on the 10-day IL with what they’re terming “bilateral pelvis inflammation.”

Miami just signed Hamilton to a minor league contract a couple weeks ago. He made just one appearance with Jacksonville before being called up, and he’s now in position to log his first MLB action of the year. Hamilton adds a speed and defense element to an outfield that has otherwise been lacking a prototypical center fielder. Miami has relied on Jesus Sanchez, who’s probably better suited for a corner outfield role, in center field of late.

Sanchez, of course, will remain the primary center fielder even with Hamilton’s arrival. The fleet-footed veteran hasn’t hit well, putting up only a .213/.269/.299 line since the start of the 2019 campaign. Even with excellent defense and baserunning, that offensive output has been too light to merit regular playing time at the big league level. He’ll add an interesting complementary skill set to the bench for skipper Don Mattingly.

Gonzalez has had a pair of separate stints in the majors this season, the first coming as a COVID replacement. The former Pirate has suited up in 16 MLB games with Miami, playing all four infield spots but not offering much at the plate. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, Gonzalez has had a nice season in Jacksonville. Through 186 plate appearances with the Jumbo Shrimp, he’s hit .339/.376/.431 and swiped seven bases.

With Wendle back and Soler landing on the IL, Miami will turn the final bench spot over to an outfielder at the expense of some infield depth. Gonzalez, who is out of minor league option years, had to be designated for assignment to be taken off the active roster. Miami will have a week to trade him or, more likely, run him through waivers. If he passes through the wire unclaimed, he’d have the right to elect free agency as a player with over three years of big league service time.

Mets Place Chris Bassitt On Injured List

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The Mets announced Friday that they’ve placed right-hander Chris Bassitt on the injured list and selected the contract of righty R.J. Alvarez from Triple-A Syracuse. No designation was given for Bassitt’s injury, suggesting that he was placed on the Covid-related injured list. The Mets also announced that pitcher Locke St. John cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Syracuse. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week.

Acquired in an offseason trade that sent minor league righties JT Ginn and Adam Oller to the A’s, Bassitt has been a stabilizing presence in the Mets’ rotation amid several injuries. The steady right-hander has tossed 89 2/3 frames of 4.01 ERA ball over the life of 15 starts, though a pair of recent drubbings in San Diego and San Francisco (combined 15 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings) have skewed that number and masked how strong he’s been in his other 13 appearances.

That Bassitt has been placed on the Covid-related list doesn’t necessarily mean he’s tested positive. Players can also be placed on that list if they report symptoms or are deemed close contacts of someone who has tested positive. If Bassitt did test positive for Covid-19, the league’s health-and-safety protocols stipulate a 10-day absence or a pair of negative PCR tests and approval from a panel of three medical experts (team doctor, league-appointed doctor, MLBPA-appointed doctor).

Alvarez’s selection to the big league roster could bring about his first MLB appearance since way back in 2015. The righty pitched 28 innings from 2014-15 between the Padres and A’s and has been grinding through the Triple-A ranks since that time. Since his last MLB showing, he’s pitched in the minors for the A’s, Cubs, Rangers, Marlins, Brewers and now the Mets — for whom he logged a 2.49 ERA in 25 1/3 frames in Syracuse. Walks have been an issue for Alvarez this season, but he has a solid overall track record in parts of seven Triple-A campaigns.

Nationals Designate Sam Clay For Assignment

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The Nationals have designated left-hander Sam Clay for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the 26-man and 40-man roster will go to righty Mason Thompson, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Washington also optioned catcher Riley Adams to Triple-A Rochester and recalled fellow backstop Tres Barrera in his place.

Clay, 29, signed a big league deal with the Nats in the 2020-21 offseason despite never having pitched at the Major League level. The former Twins fourth-rounder had posted solid numbers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 before the canceled 2020 minor league season, with his enormous 71.2% ground-ball rate likely holding particular appeal for the Nats.

Unfortunately, things haven’t panned out as the Nationals or Clay himself hoped upon signing that deal. He made his big league debut in 2021 when he tossed 45 innings out of Davey Martinez’s bullpen, but Clay’s 5.60 ERA was one of many contributing factors to a disastrous Nationals season. Clay posted an excellent 60.1% grounder rate last year but also turned in a well below-average 15.9% strikeout rate and a fairly bloated 10.3% walk rate.

So far in 2022, things haven’t gone much better. While Clay has a solid 3.10 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 64.5% ground-ball rate in 20 1/3 Triple-A frames, he’s again been ineffective against big leaguers. He’s pitched 4 1/3 innings for the Nats this season, yielding five runs on three hits and three walks as well as four hit batsmen in that time. That shaky performance has inflated his career ERA in the Majors to 6.02.

Clay has a decent track record in the upper minors, one minor league option remaining beyond this season, and a clear ability to induce grounders — all of which could conceivably hold some appeal to another club with different ideas about how to maximize his results. The Nats will have a week to trade him, pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Replacing Clay on the roster will be the 24-year-old Thompson — a hard-throwing, 6’7″ righty who came to the Nats last summer in the deadline deal that shipped reliever Daniel Hudson to the Padres. Thompson, a third-round pick by San Diego back in 2016, pitched just one scoreless inning this season before landing on the injured list with a biceps strain that has kept him out since.

He made his MLB debut last season, tossing 24 2/3 innings between the Padres and Nats. In that time, Thompson logged a 4.01 ERA with more questionable secondary marks, including a 19% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. He sat at 96.3 mph with his sinker and kept 50% of the balls in play against him on the ground, however, and his slider is considered an above-average offering as well.

As for the swap behind the dish, Adams will head to Rochester and presumably receive the regular playing time that has eluded him behind fellow rookie Keibert Ruiz this season. The 26-year-old has appeared in 27 games and tallied just 88 plate appearances so far this season, batting .192/.284/.321 along the way. Adams has plenty of raw power and consistently high walk rates, but he only played in a total of 36 Triple-A games before being called to the Majors. The Nats apparently feel it’d be better for his development to get more consistent looks in Rochester than playing sparsely behind Ruiz.

The 27-year-old Barrera, meanwhile, was hitting .256/.342/.439 in Triple-A and has long projected as a possible backup catcher. The Nats selected him in the sixth round back in 2016, and he’ll now get another look in the big leagues. He appeared in 30 games last season and hit .264/.374/.385 through 107 plate appearances.

Phillies Designate Oscar Mercado For Assignment

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The Phillies announced that outfielder Oscar Mercado has been designated for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for southpaw Bailey Falter, who has been recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start today’s game. Mercado had only been claimed off waivers from the Guardians a few days prior and struck out in his lone plate appearance with Philadelphia.

At the time of the original waiver claim, it looked as though the 27-year-old Mercado might be in line for a legitimate audition with the Phils, who will be without Bryce Harper for more than a month and who have seen both Mickey Moniak and Odubel Herrera struggle considerably of late. Mercado’s struggles at the plate in Cleveland over the past three years have been glaring, but he’s an above-average outfielder capable of playing all three spots — a skill set the Phillies sorely lack at present.

We’re not that far removed from the 2019 season, wherein Mercado finished eighth in AL Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a solid .269/.318/.443 batting line through 115 games in Cleveland. He tallied 15 homers, 25 doubles, three triples and 15 steals to go along with strong defense and, at the time, looked to have cemented himself in the outfield there.

Instead, Mercado’s bat has curiously eroded. He’s batted just .198/.254/.331 since Opening Day 2020, and it turns out he won’t get an opportunity to right the ship with the Phillies after all. He’ll now either be traded, placed on outright waivers or released at some point in the next seven days (although the latter option seems rather unlikely). Mercado has not been outrighted previously in his career, so if he does go unclaimed this time around, the Phils would be able to send him outright to Triple-A and retain his rights without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him.

Twins Name Pete Maki Pitching Coach

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The Twins announced Friday that they’ve promoted bullpen coach Pete Maki to the position of pitching coach. Maki’s move up the coaching ladder comes on the heels of former pitching coach Wes Johnson’s surprising midseason departure. Johnson will reportedly receive a raise and can earn up to $750K to serve as the pitching coach at Louisiana State University — a position that will require far less travel over a shorter season and allow Johnson to spend more time with his young family. Minnesota also promoted Colby Suggs, previously an advance scout and the team’s coordinator of run prevention, to Maki’s former role of bullpen coach.

Maki, 39, has been with the Twins since 2018 — first serving as the organization’s minor league pitching coordinator before taking on the role of bullpen beginning in 2019. He’s a familiar voice for the staff to work with, though Johnson’s departure is still a notable loss, given his reputation around the game and his popularity within the clubhouse. Prior to working with the Twins, Maki (like Johnson and Suggs) coached in the college ranks, most recently as the pitching coach at Duke from 2015-17.

Suggs, still just 30 years old, was the No. 73 overall pick by the Marlins in 2013 but hasn’t pitched professionally since 2016. He launched his coaching career with the Arkansas Razorbacks, spending 2018 as the bullpen coach alongside none other than Johnson, who was the pitching coach at Arkansas prior to being hired by the Twins.

Johnson’s departure for an NCAA position may still strike some as strange, but R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports recently suggested that it could be the beginning of a trend both in the coaching and scouting ranks (Twitter thread). Colleges tend to offer larger salaries, more limited travel and greater control for coaches, Anderson observes, adding that Johnson’s situation may not ultimately prove to be unique.

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