Though there’s plenty left to be decided in the Phillies’ 2022 season, it’s never too early to speculate about what the club might have in store for the winter or for the 2023 campaign. To this end, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “the Phillies will be eager suitors” for Xander Bogaerts, provided that Bogaerts (as expected) opts out of his contract with the Red Sox.
Reports already surfaced in June that Philadelphia would be targeting the shortstop position this winter, with the Phils looking to make a splash in a free agent class that is expected to include the likes of Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Carlos Correa. Bogaerts and Correa are seen as virtual locks to exercise opt-out clauses, and Turner and Swanson are both scheduled to hit the open market (though Swanson and the Braves are exploring an extension).
Bogaerts’ talent makes him a natural target for any team that wants a big upgrade at shortstop, and the Phillies are perhaps an even more logical fit due to the past ties between Bogaerts and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. After all, Dombrowski was Boston’s president of baseball operations when Bogaerts signed his current contract — a six-year, $120MM extension that included an opt-out clause following the current season. Bogaerts would be leaving three years and $60MM on the table to opt out, but is no doubt he’d easily top that number on the open market.
Of course, shortstop is not quite the problem position it was for the Phillies at the start of the season. After a very slow start in his rookie year, Bryson Stott has started to acclimate to the Show, hitting .305/.349/.488 with five home runs over his last 175 plate appearances. However, Stott has mostly split his time between second base and shortstop, with defensive metrics (albeit in a sample size of not even one full season) indicating that his glove plays better at second base. While Bogaerts’ own glovework at shortstop has been a question mark for years, he is currently enjoying the best defensive season of his career, with positive grades from the Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR/150 metrics.
If the Phillies were to sign Bogaerts and move Stott to second base, that leaves Jean Segura as the odd man out. The Phils hold a $17MM club option ($1MM buyout) on Segura for the 2023 season, and Segura is posting his typical level of offensive production, though he has only 301 plate appearances due to a fractured finger. Another option would be to retain Segura, and Stott and Segura at second and third base with Bogaerts as the new shortstop. This would displace the defensive-challenged Alec Bohm from third base, and Bohm could perhaps be tried at first base, and Rhys Hoskins — who is a free agent after 2023 — could become a trade chip.
There are lots of ways the Phillies could approach things this winter, and payroll will also be a factor in a pursuit of Bogaerts or any other top-flight shortstop. A lot of salary (Segura, Didi Gregorius, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, Corey Knebel, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia) could come off the books in the form of pending free agents and declined club options, but that also leaves a lot of roster holes to be filled. As per Roster Resource, the Phils are slated to pay the luxury tax in 2022, and thus they’d have to pay a higher penalty in draft pick compensation for signing a qualifying-offer free agent (i.e. Bogaerts).
Yes, the 2nd last paragraph is a good possibility.
I keep stating here that 1B is an important position. The ball that Hoskins misplayed either last night or the night before pretty much turned the tide in the game. Unfortunately, that happens with him a lot. He’s a solid run producer. But he’d be best elsewhere as a DH.
Ironically, Bohm has improved quite a bit at 3B as they year has gone one. Contrary to the narrative or overall (inaccurate) stats, his D has helped the team.
Hoskins would fit in perfectly with the White Sox.
Maybe they’ll let Jose Abreu go in FA as they are at a budge top and he’ll want a nice raise – Hoskins would be cheaper, and perform about the same defensively at 1B. Plus the Sox could continue to play Andrew Vaughn out of position, something they love to do with hitters.
Hoskins doesn’t fit in with the White Sox, Vaughn will take over first base when Abreu retires and Abreu will likely sign for another three seasons.
The Phillies would do well to avoid all the big name, high dollar shortstops and to keep Bohm and Stott on the left side of the infield.
OJ's White Ford Bronco
Man – you crazy – Sox already have 4 1st Baseman – Vaughn, Sheet, Grandal and Abreau
I’m just saying
Yes, but the Sox can never have enough 1B’ and DH’s.
Defense doesn’t matter. All a player has to do is stand there.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Let’s finish this year before the big hype of 2023 starts
OJ's White Ford Bronco
Maybe Baseball is back. The guy that ruined the game Theo – might have gotten this right.
Now – I’m just saying
Hopefully everyone involved in White Sox Management is relinquished..
Someone that wont put together a roster w 7 DH’s and no Catcher.
Pierzynski Field Manager
It all started the day Rick Hahn signed Grandal – he’s a Pig – he should have been fired that day – on the spot
I’m just saying
Bohm has improved quite a bit defensively. He is the third baseman going forward. Hoskins is a weak defensive first baseman, but he hits enough for power to live with the defense. Bogarts, doesn’t cover much ground for a shortstop. His best position is third base. It’s unlikely that Segura returns at 17m. Stott can play either ss or second base.
Samuel, 1B just might be the most undervalued position…Reminds me of the scene in Moneyball where Beane and Ron Washington are recruiting Scott Hatteberg.
Hatteberg: I don’t know how to play 1B
Beane: Scott we’ll teach you, it’s easy! Tell him Wash..
Ron Washington: It’s incredibly hard!
Beane: Anything worth doing is!
I think a lot of people see 1B dig balls from the 3B or SS and think they are just “standard” plays. There is NO such thing as digging a “standard” short hop. No dig is standard, they are almost always plays of great skill (sometimes luck). Everytime I see a 1B dig a ball it’s impressive.
Anyone who thinks a catchers mitt is an awkward contraption should stick a first baseman’s mitt on their hand. Probably the strangest piece of equipment in the game.
Fever Pitch Guy
Jumbo – I think it’s fair to say 1B has value and can’t be played properly by just anyone (ie: Schwarber, Cordero, Dalbec) but it will always be the easiest position to play.
Fever Pitch, I gotta respectfully disagree. It is incredibly hard man. I pitched and played center through college and had been asked/begged to play 1B for various reasons at different times and my answer was always NO WAY…Not that I couldn’t do it, there is just something incredibly difficult about it. To me RF could be described as the easiest position.
Fever Pitch Guy
Trumbo – While a solid defensive 1B can definitely make a difference, we will have to agree to disagree on this one. My reasoning is primarily because it’s the only position where throwing the ball is almost never necessary and range isn’t that important because of all the time spent holding the runners on. It’s also the one position that players transition to when they fail at other positions. I can’t ever recall a player getting moved off 1B to another infield position or OF position because they couldn’t handle 1B (not counting players who are “experimented” at 1B).
Corner OF positions would depend a lot on the ballpark. RF in Fenway is absolutely brutal, it requires range and speed and a strong arm and courage. That’s why even when Pedroia’s playing days were done, Mookie remained in RF.
You make some good points I’m definitely not gonna say I don’t agree with some of what you are saying. For kicks though, I would like to ask Cody Bellinger what his take on it is…He strikes me as someone who might admit that OF is easier for him than 1B. And he is a superior athlete compared to a lot of first basemen. Next game I’m at I’ll yell out to him and get an answer and let you know what he said haha
Fever Pitch Guy
Trumbo – Sounds good! LOL! Yes in terms of action, the 1B is involved in the 2nd-most number of plays (catcher is the most). But the 1B basically just stands near the base and holds his glove out, no effort needed unless it’s a bad throw which doesn’t happen too often … unless Devers is the one doing the throwing ;O)
Why RF and not LF? I remember as a kid, the coach would always stick the worst fielder in RF because most batters are right handed and hit the ball to left.
But as I got older, that shifted to LF because right fielders need a better throwing arm then left fielders. I always had a tougher time reading the ball’s trajectory when playing RF but maybe that’s just due to my inexperience there. I was a CF/2B growing up
I would say the hit distribution between RF and LF is pretty even these days. When you are in RF, visually it seems you can see more of the field and you have more open space. Granted not all fields are the same..LF can feel like you are jammed up against the wall on 3B side. Especially if you are a lefty. I detested playing LF just for that reason.
The reason people devalue First Baseman so much stems from the fact that while there have been many really good defensive players at the position for a lot teams/players it was a place to hide a guy who couldn’t really field but could hit for power in the AL (pre-DH) and NL (prior to this season)
TrumboJumbo & Fever Pitch Guy;
Branch Rickey was big on defensive 1B’s. Always had superior defensive 1B’s with the Dodgers (and before that the Cardinals) – George Sisler, Jackie Robinsons, Gil Hodges, Wes Parker, Ron Fairly.
They touch the ball more than any other defensive player other than the C and SS. They dig infielder throws out of the dirt; have to stand on the bag to take pick-off throws and if none comes have to jump off and line up to take hot shots from primarily LH hitters; with less than two outs and a runner on 1B he needs to be able to throw around the runner to 2B then run to 1B to take a return throw; serve as a cut-off man on hits down the RF line for a runner going home; and as a cut off man between the pitchers mound and home plate on hits where a runner is trying to score from 1B on a double and the 1B may cut it off to stop the batter from going to 3B……helps to have a strong accurate arm.
I read that Fangraphs discounts a players WAR if he plays 1B. Defensive stats are a joke, and if this is true once can see why. These nerds don’t seem to understand what defensive responsibilities are – how they change due to the game situation on each pitch, and how batted balls often have such spin on them causing ground balls to bounce funny and balls hit tin the air to curve, slice, take off, etc.
Samuel, Thanks for this post. You articulated what I was much too lazy and tired to this morning (4am) when I was posting about this. You really hit on it all. Nicely done friend. Glad you dropped Sisler’s name in there too…Now THAT is a guy not nearly talked about enough! Last guy to hit over .400 (.420) in the NL in the live ball era. It took Ichiro to break his single season hits record (even though Darin Erstad tried desperately).
Branch Rickey had Sisler at Michigan when he was the college baseball coach. Sisler was the best pitcher as well as the 1B. Rickey said when he saw how Sisler could turn a teams fortunes around playing a strong 1B he became a believer in defensive 1B’s.
And of course the Cardinals continued the tradition of a strong defensive 1B with Stan Musial. In fact, ‘The Cardinal Way’ (as ‘The Dodger Way’) was really Rickey baseball…..not that Rickey was responsible for moving Musial to 1B. Musial hurt his arm pitching in the minors so being LH he had to play corner OF or 1B. The minor league manager made the move at a time when communication between the minor league teams and the major league FO was once or so a week by mail, and Rickey didn’t even know how good a hitter Musial was until he started seeing the stats come across……then he claimed credit for the move…LOL.
As Stan’s career was winding down the Cardinal’s started playing Bill White at 1B…sometimes in LF if Musical was playing. When Stan retired white took over 1B. A terrific defensive 1B.
FYI – Musial was stationed at Pearl Harbor once WWII started. Naturally he played on the bases baseball team. He became friends with a minor league player – John Hernandez – that also had played 1B in the minors. They often talked hitting and fielding at 1B, and remained friends after the war. John’s son Keith grew up playing 1B being given guidelines by his father and Musial. If you listen to his commentary on Mets broadcasts you’ll find that he’s often critical of many of today’s 1B’s (lazy mentally and physically), but has spoken highly of others such as Eric Hosmer’s play that don’t show up well in the stats but are regarded well by their managers.
Truly great insight Samuel! I had known at one point that Rickey coached Sisler but forgot. You got a lot of baseball knowledge in you. I agree Hosmer plays a mean 1B. I also think too that Freeman, Jared Walsh, and Ji Man Choi do as well. And so did/does Muncy. I think some people are just “in the know” about the value of a solid First Baseman and many others take it for granted etc…I would imagine that a lot of people might not realize how hard being a Catcher is as well. I think the only comparable to a Catcher is a Hockey Goalie..Which in turn might be the hardest position in all of sports. Thanks for all the info I’m gonna watch a youtube doc on Sisler again later that I saw a few years back. Maybe one on Stan The Man too. Those 2 were so darn great.
What about the fans?
Yea…maybe I can teach one of them!
For anything you could say about Bohm and Hoskins’s defense, the best option will be Bohm to 1B. He actually played there in a game I went to recently and I was impressed.
I’ve seen him play a worse 1B than Hoskins. So I guess it depends on the day. I honestly think Bohm is serviceable at 3rd (he’s improved so much), but moving Hoskins allows you to be more flexible with Schwarber and Castellanos.
C’mon Bloom, don’t let them have the chance
The Red Sox signed Trevor Story explicitly so that he becomes their SS next year. I don’t think it’s even a question. Sox have more important targets to shoot for, namely pitchers.
Fever Pitch Guy
Redsoxx – Let’s summarize, shall we?
1) Bloom didn’t even attempt to sign Xander before last offseason, knowing full well all the big name shortstops would be signing massive contracts that would cause Xander’s price to go up even more
2) Bloom then dumped a ton of money on a GG caliber shortstop in Story, because Story was willing to take less than what Xander would want
3) Bloom then gave Xander an insulting lowball extension offer
So you really think Bloom will suddenly change course and give Xander’s free agent market price for a solid shortstop in his prime who will also likely be the reigning batting champion?
To quote Mr. Steven Tyler, Dream On.
all in the suit that you wear
Exactly Fever. I doubt Xander will be worth what Boras will be asking in dollars and years.
The Sox should offer Xander another 2 years at $30M/yr. That would make his contract 5/$120M. That amount will most likely be beaten by another team but it would at least show some effort from Boston to retain their best pure hitter. They also need to lock Devers up with a massive contract. If they do neither, this team is going to be a disaster for years to come.
There is absolute no incentive for Bogey to take a 2 year, 60mils contract. He’ll easily get 6-8 years at 30 plus on the market
all in the suit that you wear
Bogaerts will be 38 in 8 years. So, I wouldn’t sign him to an 8 year contract. Maybe a front-loaded 6 year contract. The other thing is I don’t believe Bogaerts has ever said he would be willing to switch his position from shortstop. If that is the case, I don’t think I would sign him at all.
Fever Pitch Guy
Dotty – I’m sure they will make an effort, to give the appearance of trying. But I seriously doubt they will offer something that he could possibly accept.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – I did read something earlier this year that Xander would eventually accept a position change, but probably not during the next couple years.
all in the suit that you wear
Fever: I see. That’s good news.
Their first spending priority should be to hire a barber for Stott.
Many MLB players need to get haircuts (said the grumpy old man).
Fever Pitch Guy
rod – You just reminded me of the old lady who left the voicemail about Manny Ramirez’s hair …. it’s pure gold!
Personally whatever they do with their hair doesn’t matter to me, its the stupid orchestrated celebrations every time a player reaches base or hits a homerun that turns me off.
If I wanted stupid orchestrated celebrations, I’d listen to John Sterling homerun calls.
Is the voice mail of the old lady complaining about Manny’s hair still available online?
The orchestrated celebrations don’t bother me as much as players pointing to the sky when they get on base.
You don’t think God is heavily involved with and concerned with the outcome of each AB? What could possibly be more important?
Fever Pitch Guy
rod – Yes the pointing to the sky is part of the celebrating I was talking about.
Here’s the voicemail, one of the funniest audio clips I’ve ever heard!
they’re thanking satellites, it’s the next step in sign stealing.
100% on orchestrated celebrations.
Spontaneous adrenaline inspired celebrations ? Fine. Love it.
Orchestrated “look at me” celebrations that have been rehearsed in your downtime ? Umm……yeah. Good for you, champion.
Fever Pitch Guy
foppert – That’s exactly how I feel. Spontaneous is fine, scripted is as lame as “reality TV”.
@BaseballBrian- Checked the calendar lately? It’s not 1922 anymore. Also, it’s not your head, so why you worried about it?
Sign me up for this as a Phillies fan. Xander would be great in the 2hole
I think that statement could pretty much describe the experience of being a Phillies fan, amiright
Nice try, but back to the “waterpipe” sir….
“A” for effort though….
I know Turner/Swanson/Bogaerts are on their radar, but I’d rather see a splash at SP.
Wheeler, Nola and Suarez are back, plus 1 of the AA’ers as a 5, but please spend the $ off the books on a #2 type & bullpen fillers…..
Offense looks set at:
2b Nicky Bats
It would be nice to sign a veteran Brad Miller-type as well….
FWIW Philly needs these young cheap players need to blend with the 5 BIG contracts already on the books….(hence giving Maton a shot @2b…)
Knebel was a gamble and miss. Seranthony can’t stay healthy. Robertson won’t be back.
They need a high leverage closer. Any nominations?
So was Familia…..but a ton more scary….
Robertson is a wildcard comfortable w/ Cotham, it’s Seranthony’s first year back…Then there is Hand, who has evened out
Phils have good arms Coonrod, Falter, Borgdon etc and potentially McGarry……There are many options out there as well…and need to be explored.
So while sure, you have a point, mine was NOT to spend all the $ coming off the books on another hitter -making 6 of the 9 starters very well compensated.
As for those who want to trade Hoskins…? He’s a pennies on the dollar type due to his positional limitations and agent. I am a huge Rhys fan, but let him play out his walk year and then make bank….
I wonder if the Cards could go after him too!!
Ringworm Cream for Sale
I could see them being interested in any of the SS FA, if Arenado opts out.
Arenado is opting out. 99% sure. He’d be idiotic and the union would be pissed if he didn’t. Question is whether the Cards up their commitment to keep him. Having an MVP year, but he’s 32 and already signed until 37. They want to go 38 when they have two excellent 3B prospects ready to go? Money better spent on Swanson, Turner, or Bogaerts, imo.
@seamaholic i don’t really seeing nolan opt’ing out, he wants to play for a contender and most of them teams are set on 3b, or 3b is good enough to fix other needs, or some of them might not be able to afford him. yes that includes both ny teams and lad, and i know they have money and spend but not even there money is infinite.
Doubt he opts out. He wouldn’t get the dollars he’s getting today and much of those dollars are going to be had by others in the market.
If XB signed with Philly, that’s got to be the worst defensive team out on the field with the exception of catcher.
Again, you are commenting based on old info…last years team.
Phillies Defense and bullpen are vastly improved.
I don’t think most front offices look at this the way fans do. Arenado is likely having a career year. Very good chance there’s a large drop off in value next year. He’ll still be very good but that would be the norm. Fans assume, he’s 7 WAR now, probability says he’ll basically be that next year too. Not so. Also the fan assumption that decline has to occur gradually rather than suddenly is false. That being said, with the contracts being thrown about these days who knows?
He’d very easily get more than what he’s owed, from the Dodgers (his home town team) the Yankees (his childhood favorite) or any of a number of others.
NYY and LAD are in no way “set” at 3B. The question isn’t whether he opts out. He’s opting out. That’s what you do after an MVP top three season. The question is if the Cards sign him to a bigger deal when they have elite prospects behind him and deep needs on the pitching staff and in the OF. I think he’s gone.
I could see the Cards going for someone more defensively adept than X. No doubt, Xander is top-2 offensively, but the Cards seem to hold defense in high value. I could certainly see them go for Trea Turner which would be downright scary…
That top four would be incredible for them, and obviously the Cards have several more good hitters too to fill out the lineup.
Ringworm Cream for Sale
That would be a lot of spending by stl. I doubt they keep Nolan and sign Trea but who knows
This is the kind of guy you sign to a long term deal. I don’t get why Boston doesn’t want to pay him
Bc XB isn’t a good defensive SS (see Gleyber Torres, SS) and Boston doesn’t want to pay for long-term deals which also cover their inevitable decline years. Same reason why didn’t make a real effort to sign Betts.
They gave Chris Sale, an injury-prone veteran a lengthy contract
all in the suit that you wear
Sale’s extension was by the previous GM.
That is correct. I’m sure the Red Sox were pretty miffed when Bogarts wouldn’t move off of ss, when Story was signed. Devers is the better hitter, and the Red Sox won’t sign both to extensions.
I thinks it’s complicated by the fact that Raffe Devers is also a known butcher at the hot corner and they want Devers long term. So, they don’t want two below average defenders on the side that’s supposed to have the most capable defenders, imho.
Moreover, they have a couple of very highly touted SS prospects (although I do *not* believe in holding out on signing for positions of need now for prospects that may pan out years later).
And they already signed Story, as Seamaholic pointed out above. So, they already have redundancy, why pay out the nose to keep it going….
I’d much rather have Bogaerts than Story
Yankees can sign Bogaerts if they want. I believe it will be a bad contract in 3 or 4 years.
They have numbers crunchers that tell them it’s just not sustainable. I’ve got inside info. (It’s just Bill James’ website).
Maybe they’re going to spend the money on re-signing Devers. They could also use some pitching this off-season too
Typical Sox u surprised mookie was the same trout level talent we have a history of lowballing and paying for David price type players. Now we got to dumpster dive and play front office like a low level market
Try communicating in American English. You’d be surprised how many people would then take you seriously.
I like segura at 3B, Stott at 2B, Bogarts SS, Bohm at 1B. See ya Hoskins
Segura has a 17m option with the Phillies. They will never pick that uo. Segura is an excellent defensive second baseman, that is his position. Bohm will stay at third base. If the Phillies sign a ss, Stott moves to second.
They can buy him out and re-sign him for less (which I could see them doing and would also like to see them do).
He basically will cost $16M this year (17m-1m buyout). Doubt he’d re-sign for less than $16M, unless its a long-term contract. And, a long-term contract would put the Phillies in the same boat in a few years. They would be better off finding a trade partner. At least then, they get something back.
I don’t think it’d be smart to double down on such bad defense long term.
Segura is likely gone next year. He also doesn’t play a great 3B because of his arm.
Jeffrey R. Kosnett
I am a Mets fan and I want Segura gone from the Phils. He rips the Mets and I am ready for him to go out of the division.
Headline is based on old information on Phillies. Rob Thompson was hired to change direction and play their young players to see what they have. Stott makes a great 2 way SS for the Phillies who does not break the bank. I can see the Phillies going young for another middle infielder @ 2B or SS either internally or by trade.
(Another Brandon Marsh type deal for a middle infielder and more deals for pitching). The Phillies have 2-3 young, top pitching prospects…two of them for the rotation and one for the bullpen. Some guys could be traded. Castellanos? Bohn and /or Hoskins?!
Dombrowski will try to work more trades before dropping another 100+ on another Infielder.
I don’t think the Phillies sign another big free agent deal unless they also move one of their big contracts like Castellanos or Schwarber.
Kruk's Left Nut
People truly have recency bias regarding Hoskins’ defense this year. He’s defense has improved quite a lot. Per Bill James’ Fielding Bible he’s become one of the better fielding first basemen in baseball.
And then there’s the issue of his production. Offensively, the dude is a machine. He may be a bit streaky, but he is legitimately the glue of this offense. There’s a reason he bat’s second, he’s hitting at a clip 26% better than the league average for his career. I have no idea why our fans would do quickly want to replace that.
And then there’s his replacement. Bohm? Seriously people? The kid has promise, but has shown he has little to no ability to hit for game power. Bohm has 146 hits this year and only 35 have gone for extra bases. You can’t have your first basemen OPSing .736, that just doesn’t work.
“You can’t have your first basemen OPSing .736, that just doesn’t work.”
Unless your name is Eric Hosmer and you obviously have comprimising photographs of MLB execs.
Which is it? Do the Phillies want a SS, or do they want Bogaerts? Correa can play SS. Turner can play SS. Swanson can play SS. Boston is dumping him because he has no range and is already getting paid like a 2B with a good bat. Dombrowski has worked to improve the defense. He will continue to do so. Xander don’t fit.
The Phillies have Stott as a contender for SS. Xander totally could play 2B.
Bogaerts has already refused a move to 2nd base with the Red Sox. Why would he accept one with the Phillies?
People are more likely to do it when that giant, guaranteed contract is in front of them.
That said, I could see him sticking to only shortstop as well.
Well it was a good career while it lasted.
This is in reply to all the above comments about Bogaerts’ defense.
Over the years, I’ve heard all the criticism of his defense too.
There’s a caveat with defensive metrics that says you need three seasons’ worth of data for a good read. I think there’s an innate fallacy in that thinking, but never mind that for now.
I’ll just point out that this year Bogaerts rates as an above-average defensive shortstop by Outs Above Average, Fielding Runs Above Average, DRS, Def, UZR, UZR/150, Double Plays and Fielding Percentage. He’s not rangy, but he’s been very good this year at fielding within his range. He picked a good year to pick up his defensive game.
Interesting. I had no idea he had improved his def. as I haven’t seen much of Bos this year. I wonder how stats would reflect walk-year improvements over the course of time. It seems that players often have really good years when they’re about to enter FA… it could be just a coincidence.
Nonetheless, even if X can play an average defensive SS, his bat makes him one of, if not the, best option out there. He’s gonna get PAID!
He leads all shortstops in bWAR, fWAR, wRC+, wRAA (Weighted Runs Above Average), wOBA, AVG, OBP and SLG.
He’s 7th in fWAR and 9th in bWAR among all position players.
The Red Sox need to keep Xander. He’s their version of Derek Jeter, classy and clutch. In fact, they currently have the same lifetime OPS. I don’t know whether Bogaerts will be a deserving first ballot Hall of Famer like Jeter, but he’s a darn good ball player. Mookie was great but you knew he wasn’t staying in Boston, he had dollar signs in his eyes. That’s fine but I don’t see that as much with Bogaerts.
Fever Pitch Guy
hayzee – Xander already gave a hometown discount, when Dombrowski signed him to his current contract. He is NOT going to give another hometown discount, especially after the insulting lowball offer Bloom made in the spring, and especially after likely winning the batting title.
For Xander, it’s become personal …just as it became for Lester after the way he was treated in his final days with Boston. We all know how that ended up.
When players have emotionally moved on, there’s no bringing them back.
I was surprised to see the bWAR and fWAR numbers for shortstops putting Bogaerts ahead of all the other SSs. Nice point out Fink.
Free Agency is a big motivator for some guys and he’s having his best or 2nd best season. He will get paid nicely due to that. But, I wonder if those stats are sustainable in the later years of the contract. He will be 30yo at the start of 2023.
You can’t KEEP a player if said player doesn’t WANT to stay. I’m not begrudging the players for making multi millions of dollars every year, but how many millions is enough? If a player TRULY WANTS to stay where they’re at,they (& their agents) can make it work. Does it really matter if player A is paid $1,250,000.00 less than player B when player A is making $25,750,000.00 per year? Based on these #’s Player A is making $103,000,000.00 over a 4 year contract while player B is making $108,000,000.00 over the same period. If a player wants a 6 yr deal & a team is offering a 5 yr deal (& the $ figures are in line w each other) it SHOULD BE pretty easy to come up w a vesting option scenario.
He’s also been very lucky. His babip is .380, about 40 points higher than his norm.
I always said that Xander was a Yankee in a RS uni.
Yanks should sign him. Jacoby Ellsbury 2.0.
Ha! Fool me once, shame on you……
I’d prefer the Phillies go after Correa. He has much more defensive upside and will be 28 for all of 2023. He is exactly what the Phillies need at SS.
Xander has already called out Bloom and his lack of direction for the team. Plenty of players and even people in the front office have issues with Bloom. He’s also a Boris client who will wait til the last minute to sign and go to the highest bidder. Sure Boston has a chance—but no more than any other club. Considering Xander’s comments and clubhouse atmosphere — and how bad Bloom has messed things up — sounds like he’s gone…
Fever Pitch Guy
rob – Cora too has issues with Bloom. But honestly, Bloom is only doing what Henry is asking him to do. Henry is the one who sets the budget each year, he wants to save at every position. That’s why Story was signed, a cheaper replacement for Xander until Yorke and/or Mayer take over.
all in the suit that you wear
Criticizing your employer publicly is a good way to be shown the door.
Hard pass. Either sign Turner or Correa. If they can’t get either of those, I’d prefer they make a deal for a top end starter instead.
Overlapping bad ideas – that’s why XB will be elsewhere next year. The Bloom’ing Sox are difficult to support – Sox are in-tough with this small market masquerade.
I love your last line – it’s so true for so many teams that hire Rays execs. Friedman seems to be the only one who realized he doesn’t *have* to continue operating like he’s still with the Rays.
I will once again advocate for the Phillies to look at the SS market like they did last year – wait it out and see who is left in Jan/Feb willing to sign for less. Maton and Sosa have showed well and Segura could certainly be brought back – this team doesn’t NEED a SS. I would rather they go after a 3B and deal Hoskins or spend more on a legit SP and RP.
I don’t see any validity to this rumor. Phillies will be looking at Bogaerts, but I don’t see him as. great fit. A big reason for the Phillies success in the 2ne half was improving defense up the middle with Stott and Segura as opposed to Didi. Bogaerts is a backwards step in that regard.
Bogaerts future is at 3B. The sooner he accepts this the better it will be for everyone.
Bogaerts defense is tremendously overblown. He is not nearly as bad as people seem to think. As a fan who watches almost every game he passes the eye test. His range may be a little limited but he is not a negative by any means. I dont care what the super stats say. He will obviosly have to move off SS by the end of whatever contract he signs but whatever team signs him can worry about that in a few years. It is not an issue right now.
Otto371: Regarding Bogaerts Defense: Fangraph, Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference all disagree with you.
Fangraph: -35 Outs Above Average
Baseball Savant: -35 Outs Above Average
Yes, he’s playing much better this year (coincidentally his walk year), but that doesnt negate the other 9 years of subpar defense.
all in the suit that you wear
A lot of people suddenly play better in their walk year.
one thing for certain. There are a lot of infield singles to shortstop..
As i said, I dont care what the defensive metrics say. He is not as bad as they make him out to be. Thats all.
Philly will get whatever SS the Cubs don’t want. Every available SS on that list has informed their agents to make Chicago their next destination
Nice speculation on your part, as is the norm with your “comments”.
Ringworm Cream for Sale
No I’m demand free agent is going to sign with the cubs. That team isn’t close to competing and deep dish pizza is overrated. Chicago might be able to sign a SS if the market falls through like Correa last year. Most players would probably choose the twins over cubs if the money was equal
The only thing you are correct on is the pizza.
They’ve already been picked by expects to be the next NL World Series representative, and with a rotation of deGrom, Stro, and Hendricks it’s easy to see why
The sarcasm is fantastic! Keep it up, everyone needs a good laugh every so often.
I think the mega contracts may be on the way out this offseason. So many horror stories of signing and then massive drop offs in production in the last 15 years.
From Chris Davis, David Price, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujolz, Joe Mauer, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Chris Sale, Fernando Tatis, Jason Heyward, Corey Seager and the list goes on….
It’s risky at best and it seems the most of busts outweigh the success stories.
The amount of long-term contracts for more than 5 years have been slowly diminishing – more teams are getting away from them. For every Max Schurzer there are 20 players contacts that were on a spectrum from OK to at times a disaster.
Look at the Astros. They are very good at putting an amount they’ll be winning to pay to retain a player. They tried to get Correa back for 5 years. He wanted more dollars and years. Fine. They let him walk and promoted Jeremy Pena. He’s playing SS for 2% of what the Twins are paying Correa. Obviously Pena isn’t Correa, but he’s playing a decent SS, got some big hits, and the Astros had money to retain and sign other players. If Correa was signed they’d have had to dump some salaries…..baseball isn’t a one man game. Astros have the best record in the AL.
It doesn’t work this way but go ahead and report it cause reporters do what they want, truth be damned.
Trevor Story was signed as insurance in the event XB departed in FA, not specifically to replace him. Of course, this allowed the sox to attempt a low ball offer in a perceived first round of negotiations. They will likely circle back and up the ante at season’s end. This team needs arms more than anything. Would like nothing more than XB to play his entire career in Boston. I doubt they break the bank in trying to make that happen. Too many holes to fill and expending a wad on one player probably doesn’t materialize.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bobby – If the Sox don’t extend Devers this winter (which means he will likely get traded), imagine no longer having the offense that Xander, JD and Devers have supplied during the past 5 years. Those three have carried the team offensively the past several years, that’s why they have been All-Stars multiple times.
I get it. They have enough spending space to bring back XB, and extend Devers. I’ll wager that they’ll wait to see what kind of shape Devers is in at the outset of spring training. With Boras being XB’s agent, he will likely wait until the last minute to sign, as is par for Boras clients. What it will come down to is the other FA shortstops decisions, and how willing the Sox to spend on one guy. Or do they pivot and make a play for Correa or Swanson? Getting under the CBT should have happened last year, but the JBJ deal, signing Story, and giving Paxton a contract blew that out of the water. Henry doesn’t want to pay tax and finish last. they can do that without the spending. We won’t know until next year.
When you and others talk about long-term contracts the discussion is always does the franchise have the projected payroll space this coming season. (MLBTR writers to this as well.)
But billion dollar businesses usually have long, intermediate, and short term plans. In the case of MLB, that includes the age of players on their ML roster, as well as the status of their minor league players.
The Sox have a long and intermediate term plan that’s been in effect.
I doubt that Bogaerts will be back if he opts out. As for Devers, I love what he’s done to improve as a 3B. But the way he takes care of himself physically (he’s always overweight) spells future disaster for any franchise giving him more then 3 years…..and even with that they may find him on the IL for long periods at times.
@Samuel# I’m with you. If Devers doesn’t show up in shape in 23, I hope they trade him or QO @ season’s end. Reports had them 100 milion apart on contract talks. So 35 for 8. He’d best get a trainer over the winter.
I’ve learned to avoid Boras clients. Inspite of his OAA, he’s a hit first player. Offensively, his statcast numbers are underwhelming at best, his H/A splits favor Fenway, and he turns 30 on 10/1. Caveat emptor.
In fact, I would refrain from all the other big name SS as well.
It’s not sure thing that the Phillies will go for one of the SS available. The only opinion I’d make is if they did, I’d prefer Trea T. No adjustment needed for NL pitching.
My preference would be what I look for every year. Arms, arms and then more arms.
How is that Anthony Rendon contract working out? Angels are up Schitt’s Creek with him and Trout with that massive overpay…… just like Betts for the Dodgers……Any team that pays these players long term contracts that take them past 35 years old are really making a mistake. JD Martinez is at 35 now and in a major decline…. thank goodness he is in last year of his deal.
Any team that pays Bogey past age 35 will be making a massive mistake especially as a SS..
That doesnt concern DD. He never stays in any one place for more than 3 or 4 years. Thats the next guy’s problem.