As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins
At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.
2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents
Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.
3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation
The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.
The Rangers need an ace. I’d like to see them swing a trade for Woodruff or Burnes. Milwuakee’s window seems closed to me and they’ll at least need to significantly retool. Rangers could sign Josh Bell and move Lowe to DH. And/or, try to sign Benintendi.
1. Benintendi
2. Semien
3. Seager
4. Garcia
5. Lowe
6. Bell
That’s a pretty nice start to a lineup.
I expect the Orioles to check in with Milwaukee on SP this off-season too.
The prospect cost for 2 expensive years of Burnes or Woodruff will probably be steeper than I would be willing to go if recent SP trade examples are anything to go by, even with the Orioles‘ stacked farm system (think Cowser+Westburg as just a starting point for either guy). I think free agency is the way to go for the Orioles with their wide open payroll ledger and fairly deep free agent SP class.
Definitely check in with MIL though, nothing wrong with a bit of due diligence.
If Texas can acquire one, they will almost certainly be able to extend them if they wanted. They have so much money. Same with Baltimore. Both teams have a chance to add an elite arm via trade and extension. Signing one outright this summer might be difficult as neither team is absolutely a winning team.
Unless I am allowed to work out an extension prior to the trade, I don’t necessarily know if I pull the trigger on a deal considering how steep the acquisition cost will undoubtedly be. MIL will almost certainly be looking to handily beat what MIN got for Berrios and CIN got for Castillo since they would be dealing a definitively superior pitcher to either of those guys (regardless of which of Burnes and Woodruff we are talking about).
And if quality FA SPs are wary of signing with TEX or BAL since they aren’t yet clear-cut contenders, it would logically follow that high end pitchers that aren’t all that far away from free agency and who are already pretty well-paid via arb would feel similarly (I’m not sure I agree with that premise BTW since notable FA SPs like Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray, and E-Rod all signed with teams that weren’t clear-cut contenders last offseason).
I do agree. I suppose I’m thinking from the perspective that with Burnes or Woodruff you’d have two years to work out a deal.
The main difference between Burnes/Woodruff and Verlander/deGrom is age. I think Verlander and deGrom, due to their age, would prioritize winning now. Rodon would sort of be in the same camp of Burnes and Woodruff in that they could theoretically wait out the last year or so of rebuilds in Baltimore or Texas and then enjoy being on playoff teams.
There will be so much competition for Rodon, in my opinion, that I’m not convinced that Texas or Baltimore could win him over.
All just my own speculation obviously. This is the sort of stuff I enjoy thinking and talking about.
It’s definitely possible that an extension could get done in that 2 year window, but it also might not happen, so I am a little gun-shy after watching Dan Duquette trade away prospects the likes of Josh Hader, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Zach Davies for no long-term gain during our last run.
Wagner>Cobb;
I love these trade ideas (usually they come from Yankee fans)….
LOL
The people working in the Brewers front office have been working in MLB for at least 10 years. They know what they have in Woodruff and Burnes. If they trade one they’ll get a lot back.
I noticed you didn’t write down who the Brewers would get back in trade.
(Sorry, I couldn’t help it. Post-World Series to Spring Training is Silly Season here.)
I haven’t seen a single trade idea from a Yankee fan, and I rarely do. All I see are hater jokes about a phantom phenomena. Meanwhile, I do see lots of bad trade ideas from fans of other teams, which rarely get called out, certainly not as a notable trait of that fanbase.
Every team’s fans do that. But if you haven’t seen the Yankee ones, you’re probably relatively new here. Back in the day, the trade suggestions were unusually insane, and centered on bundling second tier guys like Urshela, Andujar, Frazier, etc., for major stars.
But quantity in exchange for quality is standard fare for BB fans.
Utah
I have seen some Yankees fans with crazy valuations of their trade bait, but plenty more who are reasonable.
utah cornelius;
How long have you been here?
Those people spent years proposing to trade Clint Frazier, Aaron Hicks and / or Miguel Andujar for ace pitchers and/or impact position players. Now they’re starting up trading Gleyber Torres to the the Marlins for Pablo Lopez – a controlled #2 starter…..meanwhile the Marlins best (and most popular) position player is a 2B. Now they’re starting up with Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson being sent for major impact players. Was even a question about a trade in one of the chats – the moderator had to politely tell them that teams aren’t wild about getting back a 3B that is playing terribly and is owed $27m in 2023 for a controlled, inexpensive impact player (I think that trade proposal was also for Lopez).
Stick around. Whenever a name player is mentioned as being available in trade, the Yankee and Red Sox fans come out in droves….but at least the Red Sox fans are realistic.
Those are all years old and they were perpetrated by just a few guys, and the whole thing was overblown and used to paint a whole fanbase. Just hate.
Years ago. I remember those proposals of Andujar and Frazier. A season or two. By a few guys. You’re lying about IKF and Donaldson. All they are saying is they need to trade them. No mention of who they expect to get. It’s not a trade proposal if you don’t mention who you expect to get. Again, I’ve been watching this carefully for years. Way overblown compared to what else gets mentioned.
utah cornelius;
I’m not lying.
You’re not reading.
Samuel:
I’m not a Yankee fan. I’m not even a Rangers fan. I’m just saying they should try to trade for one if they can, especially if the rumors of Brewers cost-cutting are true. I’m definitely not suggesting a lopsided Rangers trade, just that they need an ace and trading for one from a team that seems to be on a bit of a slide makes sense. Obviously Texas would have to pay a premium in prospects, but I think it’s more realistic than deGrom, Verlander, or Rodon signing with them.
Burnes or Woodruff would be huge gets but I don’t know if the Rangers would attempt to land one of them as it would take probably one of their top arms Leiter/Rocker plus 3 other prospects. Leiter & Rocker are likely untouchables. If they could center a deal around White or Foscue, then ya, but I don’t see the Brewers accepting a deal like that.
The Rangers need to stay away from Bell. He’s inconsistent at best. They have a good 1B. Spend the money elsewhere (outfield and rotation).
I think the Brewers would want O. White, C. Winn & Foscue in a deal for either Burnes or Woodruff.
FWIW C. Winn was worse than a batting practice pitcher last year and Foscue is a defensively limited 2B-only type of guy that may never hit for enough power to make up for those limitations. Those two guys have little value in a deal involving good controllable pitching.
The Castillo trade is a starting point on value for Woodruff and Burnes. That cost two top 40 overall prospects. So, Jung and White plus a Tavares may not get you hung up on.
A quick thing about Rangers prospects but White and Carter in my mind and others that write for the Rangers would consider those two above Leiter and Rocker. Porter is almost ahead of those two on pure potential but I still like Leiter and think he figures it out.
How can Rod Beck have a burner account if he’s been dead since 2007?
White is probably more untouchable than Rocker
I’ll pass on Bennitendi. He doesn’t change much from what they already have and could see him more being the 2021 version. Nimmo is a guy that makes more sense from a lineup construction wise but not sure they spend that much. I would go in between and sign Joc who you have the defensive sub for late game changes in guys like Bubba already on the team. I don’t think the FO will move what it would take for a Burnes or Woodruff as that would be multiple top 5 guys even though I am fine with them trading prospects. Bell is ehh and doesn’t really do anything for me. They still have Garver to C/DH/1B so unless they trade or nontendered him that move doesn’t make sense either.
Reality is Milwaukee has a window, Texas doesn’t. Same division as the Astros and Mariners only hurts them right now. I don’t see Milwaukee making any deals regarding either of those pitchers this year.
With the additional wild card, Texas still had a shot at a window if they get the pitching they need.
I get that. But with Yelich not hitting at an MVP level (which they signed him to do) there’s no way they top the Cardinals in that division and the multiple wild card spots are far off too.
The money that Texas has gives them a better shot at a Wild Card than Milwaukee has. Plus, Milwaukee is doubtful to extend either one. I could see them trading one this year and the other next year.
A team with Woodruff and Burnes definitely has a strong playoff chance. Add in the rest of their arms and the path is easy to see. Only thing stopping them is unwillingness to spend money or trade prospects. If a fair trade is available they should do it but otherwise they can certainly contend.
Adding Odorizzi for a paltry $2.75mil to eat innings at the back of their rotation was a pretty great start to the Rangers’ offseason. My Orioles paid $7mil for Jordan Lyles to do the same last year and I would expect TEX to get similar or better production from Odorizzi at a fraction of the cost.
A can’t lose move at that price. They couldn’t figure out Allard and was able to trade him to the team who likely valued him the most.
Im a big believer in jack leiter but boy did he have a disappointing season in double a this year. If he can dramatically cut down his walks he could theoretically make the show by mid season. Not sure why Texas did such an aggressive promotion though. That guy is Texas’s future. They need Leiter to become the face.
Because probably his dad demanded it or Vandy Coach demanded ⚾️
I don’t see the Rangers contending anytime soon. They have a monster in Houston and Seattle is up and down better than Tex. I get they have Leiter and Rocker in the minors, but even if they sign Kershaw, they will hover around .500. Odorizzi is garbage and should not be included in any rotation projections.
Everything you said is true, but impressive what Martin Perez turned into in 1 season. Could Odorizzi be their next project? I don’t think so, but he can’t be any worse than he was in ATL with reg starts.
Awh bummer. Steven St Croix doesn’t see Texas competing any time soon.
Guess we should pack it in then.
Instead of criticizing, you could put forth an explanation of why you think they will compete.
I’ll offer one: the Astros. Like many of us, I hate them, but they’re still an excellent team. The Mariners are also loaded with young talent. So really, Texas has been spending big and that might get them to sniff at a WC spot if they do it again this offseason, but they were coming from being such a bad team and without a wealth of prospects that most rebuilding teams have when they start spending big. I don’t see them overtaking the M’s before at least 2025 and not the Astros before they finally tear it down.
Sorry, misread that as a reason they won’t compete. Reasons they will compete…I have a lot less on that. Even if they went crazy and got Judge and Verlander, I don’t see them overtaking the Astros. Best case is a WC spot and then going on a Cinderella run.
Hyrax: I think you misread Joe’s comment. He was responding to tcs, not St Croix. He was essentially telling TCS that instead of criticizing St Croix’s assessment that the Rangers won’t be good enough to overcome the division, provide some support of why they will.
Nonetheless, I agree with what you wrote. Astros are a beast of a team and a clear cut above every other team in the AL right now, imho. I don’t see any amount of money making of for that, honestly. And, that doesn’t just apply to the Rangers. I feel that way about the Yankees.
Honestly, I feel the Yankees would have to get Judge, Rizzo, Turner, Benintendi, Rodon, DeGrom/Verlander, and perhaps one more acquisition to be truly on the same plane as the Astros with immediate roster changes, and that’s clearly *not feasible.* perhaps I’m wrong, but it’s my current evaluation.
I issued a correction, which probably posted while you were typing this out. I don’t think the Yankees are as far away as you do. I think re-signing Judge should be a priority (for optics as well as value), but Abreu could work if Rizzo goes elsewhere. Getting any two of those last five you mentioned (maybe three if Benintendi is one of them) would make them the class of the AL East and put them on a level with the Astros. I don’t know how likely that is, but I’d still pick the field vs the Astros for next year’s AL Champs. They’re the best, but not so far ahead that nobody else has a chance.
I do hope you’re right, Hyrax. It seems the Yankees are just so far back when they play them to me.
And, Yes it did post while I was typing. Saw that late. My apologies.
The playoff field has expanded. The 3rd place team in the NL East just came within a couple of victories of a World Series title.
They just need to be better than 1 of the al east wild cards. To do it this year their 2 mega contract bats need to have strong years, some young players need to be good and they need to bring in some great free agents. If you spend enough money it’s hard to be bad.
Seattle isn’t insurmountable yet the way Houston appears to be. The Mariners still have a fairly weak lineup. An improved staff makes Texas very competitive with them.
Lol. Spencer Howard is not an option to compete with Dunning for a spot in the Rangers rotation. It would be Dunning and Otto competing for that spot with Ragans being the next in line.
Howard needs to be converted into a high leverage reliever.
I want to put down Aaron Judge to the White Sox in the FA contest, like Jim Bowden has as a top 5 option on The Athletic. But then, I also want $10Bn, to get 15 years younger, and to figure out how to teleport, each of which is more likely than the JR ponying up the cash required to get Judge.
I’d like to see Texas add Rodon and Thor. Address the outfield with one of Nimmo, Haniger or Gallo. Resign Perez, Moore and then grab another relief arm like Chafin or Martin. If we don’t re-sign Perez, try to swing a trade for Pablo Lopez.
Bell would be nice as an extra piece. Texas needs to either really help Lowe out with the glove or slide him into the DH Role.
Why don’t you swing a trade for Realmuto and sign Verlander, too, while you’re at it? No sense in going just halfway on a pipe dream.
What exactly here is pipe dream? Pipe dream is if I have us grabbing DeGrom and Judge. Rodon has been heavily rumored to us for months. Thor is going to be considered a mid-tier arm this season. Resigning players like Perez and Moore most certainly isn’t out of the question. Grabbing an arm like Martin shouldn’t be either, although Chafin is a tougher get.
Pablo Lopez isn’t an untouchable piece, although he is a very solid arm. We’ve also reportedly been interested in him for a while. Nimmo is unlikely, maybe that’s pipe dream? I don’t think a player like Nimmo is usually considered to be a pipe dream. Gallo is going to be a mid-tier outfielder at best this Free Agency.
What exactly am I going crazy about here?
Wanting all of that is what’s a pipe dream, especially Rodon. He’s going to have his choice of about half the teams in baseball. I don’t think Lopez is available as you seem to think. I’m guessing they’d rather part with Luzardo. But the pipe dream is you’ve named 7 additions to the team. That’s an awful lot of change, especially if you are giving names for each of them. Could Texas do 2-3 of these? Sure. All 7? Put these as your guesses in the contest. You’ll beat us all if they do.
I have us signing two arms, an outfielder and a relief pitcher. I said maybe Bell if we could swing it.
So that is four players in total. Two re-signings. That is so far from unrealistic. Even the trade I listed was conditional on us re-signing Perez.
Texas signed four players just last year.
1. Rodon
2. Thor
3. One of Nimmo, Haniger, or Gallo
4. Perez (a re-signing still counts as a FA signing), Lopez trade if not.
5. Moore
6. Chafin or Martin
7. Bell
And it’s not even the number of changes, it’s that you have specific names in mind for all of them. I see them addressing their OF, though I don’t think Gallo comes back. My gut feeling is Haniger is most likely of those three, but there are other options, too. Getting a reliever should happen, and in fairness, you said like Chafin or Martin rather than implying it has to be one of those.. Getting a starter probably would happen, but I’d take the field against Texas for either Rodon or Thor, much less both. Bell will have a healthy market for his services as well. If we’re talking the specific names you mentioned, re-signing Perez is the one I find most likely.
I don’t really count re-signings, so that’s where we’re differing. I respect your thought process on that, although I still don’t think I have us being overly aggressive with how active we’re rumored to be.
I think we have a great chance at Rodon. I think we’re wasting time trying to discuss DeGrom, I just don’t see it. I’d take Haniger in a heartbeat. My preference would be Nimmo but I think he’s actually the longest shot of the names I listed. Thor I like because I think he’ll come cheaper and Texas is his hometown team. But we’ll see, I could be completely off. Maybe we only grab two guys. I just expect to see at least three-four signings by us this off-season at least.
Bell I agree with you, I doubt we jump into his market.
1. Rodon
2. Thor
3. One of Nimmo, Haniger, or Gallo
4. Perez (a re-signing still counts as a FA signing), Lopez trade if not.
5. Moore
6. Chafin or Martin
7. Bell
–
LOL
Looks great in the off-season……
What I see happening during the season is: 1) Not sure even one of those players other than Lopez has any upside left in their game – more than a few will regress (the Marlins aren’t giving Lopez away cheap…they need to be overwhelmed with a package); 2) Those are older players, some will be injured for good periods of time in 2023…..more than a few of them have major injury histories; and 3) They’re all going to be paid more than they’re worth.
SMH ,You are crazy because this is not fantasy baseball,, JEEZ
I think Texas could get Gallo for a song and Thor would not break the bank. But they sure look like a third place team in that division improving but probably not in the wild card mix.
It’s going to be tough for sure. Houston isn’t slowing down and Seattle appears to only be getting started. We have the money and farm to make some special things happen so I think we can get in the mix but it’s going to be a serious uphill battle. Hard to see us finishing higher than 3rd this year unless one of Houston or Seattle is plagued by injuries.
The MLB Trade Rumors annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post, my favorite sports contest of the year!
And this year, I’ll get more than 2 right!!!
Hoping to get at least 10/50, which would easily be a record for me!
I’m accepting donations for selections because wherever I select is where they *wont end up*. So, if you want a little bit of extra magic on your side and want a top contender eliminated for a player, have me pick ‘em, and for sure, they won’t end up there.
Yankee Clipper
Pick Aaron Judge as a Red Sox it is your best chance for Cashman to open the checkbook
Now I kind of want to pay you to pick the Astros for every single FA.
I do give discounts for quantity!
SNY is reporting deGrom is indicating his interest in signing with the Rangers. It sounds blasphemous for him to play for anyone else besides the Mets and it will hurt, but if the Rangers are willing to give him $50M AAV over four years, I could understand why Steve Cohen wouldn’t match it given the CBT crunch the Mets are already facing.
If you could guarantee health I believe every contender in baseball would offer a 5 year deal. Therein lies the problem. Nobody knows if Degrom will ever pitch a full season ever again. He’s not even a boom or bust guy. He’s riskier than that. We all know he’s awesome but who wants to take that chance. Anything beyond 2 years with a team option is ludicrous for him. Sad state of pitching in today’s mlb.
White Sox wouldn’t. JR is far too cheap. He’d hear 5/$50M and get all excited that he’s cheaper than Albert Belle, then get crestfallen when you told him that was per year.
Hey Utah Corn, it might be that this all speculative fun. Too bad it so often devolves into a sort of pinhead-a-palooza.