What sort of shopping is happening in MLB free agency on this Cyber Monday?
1. Is The Backend Starting Pitching Market About To Move?
This year’s free agent starting pitching market is headlined by aces Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. But many teams already know they won’t be shopping in that aisle and don’t need to wait around to see where those guys sign. The White Sox made the first significant move of the lower tiers, grabbing Mike Clevinger on a one-year, $12MM deal this weekend. This was right around MLBTR’s prediction of one-year and $10MM. For the other teams looking to make this level of investment, will they push on to similar pitchers? Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto, Wade Miley and Kyle Gibson would make sense as backup targets for the teams that missed on Clevinger and those pitchers could get increased interest in the near future. Noah Syndergaard returned from Tommy John in 2022 and was relatively effective, but with diminished velocity and results compared to before the surgery. Will he have to settle for another one-year deal like last year or did he show enough to push himself into a multi-year deal?
2. Will Any Of The “Big Four” Shortstops Sign Before The End Of The Year?
The rumors involving the “Big Four” shortstops have been flying lately, with various teams interested in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. However, it’s unclear if any of them are particularly close to reaching a deal. Will there be any movement between now and the end of the year? One factor might be agent Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, as well as Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Josh Bell, Taijuan Walker, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and others. Boras has previously shown a willingness to wait until the New Year to find the best deals for his clients, but he surely can’t do that with all of them. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes, “Boras has so many free-agent clients, he probably will want to start taking some off the board.” Does that mean Boras will start striking deals at the Winter Meetings that start on Sunday? Or maybe even before?
3. How High Will Cody Bellinger’s Salary Go?
Cody Bellinger has fallen on hard times in recent years, having below-average offensive seasons in both 2021 and 2022. However, his previous MVP-winning production pushed his arbitration salary up, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $18.1MM for 2023. The Dodgers weren’t willing to pay him at that level after his two lost seasons and presumably couldn’t find a willing trade partner either, leading to Bellinger’s non-tender a couple of weeks ago. The interest in Bellinger as a free agent has been robust, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting last week that 11 teams are at the table. Despite Bellinger’s rough results in recent years, plenty of teams need help in center and there aren’t many great options. Though no team was willing to give up anything noteworthy in a trade in exchange for the ability to pay Bellinger close to $20MM, is there a team willing to pay him in that range when it only costs money?
I kind of feel like Correa will be the first to sign (assuming Swanson doesn’t re-sign with the Braves). I think Correa could have learned his lesson last season and sign early vs waiting for the other guys to sign.
I feel he will be the last to sign & lose out big compared if he was to sign earlier. This dude just wants years and money! He’s the type to wait it out to see what the market is getting with hopes he will top that.
I kind of feel like Bogaerts is that guy, not Correa, but I could be wrong.
I also feel like Correa is the safest bet to stay at the position the duration of his contract and not be a huge liability as a result of it.
Is the sake of seeking every last dollar really worth pushing free agent status into the last six weeks before pitchers and catchers report? It seemed like there was a time when Free Agent signings began before Thanksgiving, reached a pinnacle during the Winter meetings and everyone was signed by Christmas. Those were better days.
it was until boras welcomed a new approach.
The lockout was the main issue with Correa’s agent misreading the market. Correa fired that agent and hired Boras, who then crafted a great deal with the Twins locking in $35MM for 2022 (with two backup years in case he got injured) and who is now taking him back into free agency. History shows teams spend big with the certainty of a new CBA in place. Boras and a new CBA means Correa is going to get paid big no matter when he signs. Boras often drags out negotiations into the new year, but he really has no set pattern. The last time MLB held in-person winter meetings was 2019 when Boras’ clients signed deals for over $800MM. My guess is Boras is probably going to wait for Judge to set the market, but Judge is not his client, so I can see him waiting knowing Judge is going to set a new AAV-record for position players, which will pull up Correa’s asking price. There will also be one or two bridesmaids who Judge didn’t marry who will have money to spend.
Cody deserves a Mike Clevinger deal, he’s in prove it or lose it mode.
Upvote, but Clevinger at least has a hoped-for rebound from injury. Cody has no such excuse.
?? Bellinger’s been hurt as well.
Clevinger just returned from TJ this past season.
2 seasons ago
Cody at 12 million is exactly where I figured he sign. Incentives to push it higher. He’s exactly the kind of guy who would benefit on counting stats style incentives. Ex Cody if you hit 40 hr you make another 7 million for example. They can’t offer those incentives because the mlbpa doesn’t want players actually earning their money
Bellinger should sign with a non contender who will deal him at the deadline. Bounce back year and no QO should be his biggest priority
Luis Urias for Kyle muller, Diego Benitez, Owen Murphy.
This has to do this the current article?
…and we have a topic monitor. Wow, this site has everything now!
Yes, but at least by his screen handle he admits he’s bottom-of-the-barrel. You just confirmed what he already knows.
One Stop Shop! Don’t forget to buy the yearly subscription:)
Most jockstraps are roughly mounted in the middle of the body….but thanks for the compliment that mine hangs to the bottom half.
Don’t flatter yourself!
Jockstrap
Part of the article was about shortstops, so I threw out a trade suggestion about a potential shortstop. Where else would I post this for debate? No need to be an arsehole.
Well he didn’t really. You did
Someones getting jealous lol
I am what i eat :p..btw was meant to be a joke. All good man
Ok cool man, at least you are somewhat comical and original with your replies.
Kudos on turning that insult around!!!!! Well-played!!!! Also I’m in agreement with you, it’s annoying to read comments that have nothing to do with the article.
@getoffmylawn
Well where would one discuss that then? It was relevant as the article was discussing the shortstop market was it not? It’s funny because your comment has less to due with the article then what I proposed.
The title of the article even says that the three talking points are Starting Pitchers, Shortstops, and Bellinger.
@rivera
It was plenty relevant imo. Don’t let cranky morons like getoffmylawn get you down!
As a braves fan Urias is intriguing if they don’t bring dansby back, but I doubt the Brewers would trade him.
Really we need twenty posts off topic to complain about being off topic?
Anybody watch any good football this weekend? The U of Washington played for the Apple Cup against cross state rival Washington State U of W neat WSU. It was a great game. Is this off topic?
@compassrose
A little bit I’m fine but with it lol.
That just means you’re very old
What would the Braves do with two second basemen? (albies being the other)
Urias has played plenty of shortstop in his career. I’m not after him for 2nd. He came up as a shortstop and i think working with Washington would help him be a more solid defender.
As bad as Bellinger has been and he’ll still get millions this year – the bizarre economics of baseball.
Good defense at a premium position that has few quality options in free agency, and he still showed decent power last year. Overall, he had positive value in 2022, just not $18 million worth.
Like I said, “bizarre economics.”
A hot dog vendor has positive value, Bellinger fell far short of that imo. Yes, he hit a few homers, but flail away and even I’m bound to run into one from time to time. Belli needs a new swing. If he’s willing to start from scratch he has a chance. If he’s not, the death spiral will continue.
1.2 WAR despite being lost with the bat.
1.2 bWAR/1.7 fWAR
That is positive value.
But not at the price writers are bandying around. He clogs up a lineup, doesn’t move runners along. He looks lost at the plate and I wouldn’t want him on the Giants until he could be rehabilitated. And I don’t think that’s happening.
Pete understands.
I am not sure what the “experts” are predicting for him, but 1/$10 million would be a perfectly reasonable offer based on his performance last year, his position, the market for players at his position, and his upside. If my team needed a CF and got him on that contract, I would probably be pretty okay with it in light of how few CF options are out there this offseason.
Well, I would disagree. There a number of defense-first CF who would cost a lot less. And, in fact, the Giants have several already. You may think $10M is an okay price, but I don’t.
I understand teams taking a chance for a year, hoping he bounces back. But, if that’s the case, he’s gone the next year to some other team and at a much higher salary.
Let some other team do the experiment.
Okay, play Billy Hamilton or some other all glove, no hit CF for 150 games. LMK how that goes.
Most MLB teams would rather have a guy that also gives them 40-50 XBHs to go with the above average defense, and has the upside to be even more productive.
(I don’t actually know if BH’s defense in CF is well-regarded, just using him as an off-hand example of someone who will hit under .200 but without the 20 HRs and 20 doubles)
King — Yeah, I get it. I wouldn’t want either Hamilton or Bradley on my team. But a team would not pay them diddley. So, let’s take a guy like Kiermaier (33 next season, I know). But he’s a three Time Gold Glove who still can handle CF for another year. ($8.9M last year/ this year $3.9M?)
I guess I still think $6M is a lot of money to waste on Bellinger. I know I’ll be wrong when he signs. Just not my Giants, please.
I think $18 million would absolutely have been a massive, inexcusable overpay and do not think the Dodgers were wrong at all to non-tender him, but $8-10 million? I think that’s probably about right based on his offensive and defensive production last year, his hypothetical upside, and what 1 WAR generally costs in free agency. Plus CF is a ghost town in free agency this offseason, even Kiermaier isn’t a sure thing as an everyday glove-first option due to the fact that he is coming back from hip surgery and may not be the elite defender he was previously.
I am with you on not wanting him though, I am very glad that the Orioles have Cedric Mullins in CF and Mike Elias in the FO because Bellinger would have been our guy all the way in times past.
Yeah, it’s time the Orioles had players to gloat about. Mullins certainly deserves that.
In Mullins’ case, it’s especially neat since he was a lowly 13th round pick whose absolute best case scenario before he gave up switch hitting seemed to be platoon/4th OF. Love it when later picks with low expectations overcome the odds and become really good everyday players.
But anyway, good luck with the CF search, the Giants are a solid franchise IMO, even if you guys did “steal” Jon Miller from us 😉
Agreed re seeing late drafted players (like Mullins) outshining those far ahead of them at the draft
I’m hoping for Nimmo in CF for a number of reasons in addition to his glove (OBP, gap hitting). But the reality is the Giants need many improvements, and Mike Yaztremski is more than capable in CF (as is Austin Slater) for the time being. Yaz is a Gold Glove in right, and I expect his bat to revive this year.
Speaking of guys exceeding expectations, it’s really cool that Baby Yaz (his nickname among some Orioles fans from his minors days here, not sure if it is used elsewhere) has carved out a nice little MLB career for himself in SF. Wish it could have been here, but hey, these things happen. Just happy he got a shot and ran with it, and that it wasn’t with the Yankees or another divisional rival of ours. I’ll be rooting for him again next year, hopefully he bounces back big time.
Nimmo would be a great pickup though, I’d love for the Orioles to sign him for LF but it probably wouldn’t be a good use of our resources either since we have some good OFs already and top 50ish prospect Colton Cowser just about ready for the call. He’d definitely look pretty good in black and orange though, even if it ends up being the west coast version haha.
King — Wow, you certainly put Colton Cowser on my to watch list. Looks like he struggled at bit at AAA, but all his stats—including that incredible OBP—look fascinating. Sure looks like a first rounder so far.
King Floch — But defensive ratings (as fluctuating as they are) actually don’t have Bellinger that high. He’s certainly a bit above average defensively, but there are plenty of those players around. I think his swing and miss are so bad (perhaps due to his ongoing injury) that he’ll never be the same player again. Probably worth more than Bradley or Hamilton, but that’s an easy bar to cross.
Actually there aren’t plenty of above average defensive CFs around, especially not ones that put up 50ish XBHs in a down year.
Eye test: Bellinger in CF passes it for me. Don’t care about the defensive metrics, which if I understand them the two major ones don’t even agree on Bellinger anyway.
With as bad as Bellinger has been, he’s still worth the risk because he plays a plus centerfield.
Think about comparing Bellinger and Gallo, they have similar upside offensively, a bit more for Bellinger because he does hit more than home runs and can swipe bags, but worst case, Bellinger still is going to provide plus defense and even last season, gave decent offensive production from a position that typically you don’t see much offensive production from. 19 home runs, 30 doubles/triples and a dozen swiped bags is solid for a good defensive center fielder.
On the flip side, Gallo is a plus defender but he is limited to a position where you expect more offense and it’s easier to find.
… “bizarre economics.”
Bizarre economics translates to doesnt hit for high average.
I’ll take doesn’t understand baseball in 2023 for 600 Alex
I feel like SS market won’t start to move until Aaron Judge is off the board. (Though i think Correa’s market is more tied to Judge than the others)
Perhaps, the Dodgers have rumored interests in both Correa and Judge so it wouldn’t be out of the question that Correa would be the Dodgers fall back option.
Dodgers made a 5-year offer to Judge at an annual rate of ~$42. He was never going to accept a contract length that short. They did it to set the tone for a high AAV and screw with the budgets of the other teams.
I’d lump several together because not many will be looking to sign multiple top shelf contracts.
I like that group of starters, Syndergaard, Gibson, Kluber, Miley, and Cueto in that order. I would have put Clevinger in that group, probably to the right of Thor.
What is to like about that group of pitchers? They are #5s, at best.
Regular season depth and a little hope to outperform.
I am sad as my Cards probably won’t even snag one of these guys. I believe their rotation can implode quickly with missed starts and sub mediocrity. Big fan, but Cards are toothless until a pair of Aces onboard. Ownership is cheapish. Near Miraculous they got Goldie and Arenado to stay by choice. I am still wondering what was discussed in an ownership meeting with Arenado in that he did not take his opt out. Ownership doing well and have been building out ‘ball park village’ to capture more dollars per visit. Need to spend and lure to keep legacy fans going, especially with blackout area rules changing ‘soon’ for many fans.
Being a Dodger fan I love Belli but he had basically three years to fix that swing! He hasn’t shown any improvement! Hopefully some other team can fix him or he’ll go down as a career bust after winning ROY and MVP honors! I wish him the best but my gut tells me otherwise!
I could see Bellinger getting any number of offers based on differing theories on how he’ll progress as a player or what he may be “owed” with his MVP etc but he may wind up like Brandon Webb- a Cy Young but low salaries and washed out after relatively few seasons. Now granted- Webb was a pitcher, Webb I believe signed a very early extension that had his salaries locked in and it was a different era.
But even so…
Someone might roll the dice and give Bellinger $19-20M on a one year pillow contract to function like his last arbitration season.
But I think it’s more likely someone tries to get him for very cheap with a team and a player option etc.
1 year/$10M w/ a $2.5M mutual buyout on a $22M club option or a $6M player option.
I think Bellinger is in the 8-10 million range with incentives. May land a deal with a second year player option but Boras won’t go for a team option nor will he leave money on the table in the way of a contract buy out (unless it will be paid regardless if Bellinger opts out of the team declines).
Id bet he gets a 1yr x 15/16m
I think Bellinger would sign that contract right now if offered. Seems a bit too rich, but somebody will offer it.
You should give Brandon Webb another look. Very respectable career ended too early by injury. He did not “wash out”
I doubt Bellinger is as concerned about the money as he is about finding a place that will give him a starting job…because if he does decently and plays for an entire season, he stands to make a lot of money.
I basically agree- think if he can bounce back with a season similar to 2018 he will maybe convert that into offers in the range of 5 year/$140M.
So you are saying he IS concerned about the money…
If I was Bellinger, I’d request Boras bleed every penny out of Colorado and sign a one year deal there. That or Cincy.
You do know that teams are aware that Cincy and Colorado are good hitting parks and account for it accordingly when they evaluate players, right?
That is one of the funnier things in here. Folks think that a player will go to CO, hit 30 HRs instead of 24, and that none of the GMs will realize that his stats were inflated because of CO.
So he should go play in San Fransisco and potentially put up even worse numbers just so he can have an excuse?
Or maybe he should go to a park with the most spacious outfield, where the ball carries a bit further, where the breaks a little less and he has a high likelihood of rebounding.
And do teams really hold Coors against them? Didn’t Story get paid? Or better yet, doesn’t the Rockies have a long history of handing out contracts to their players?
Look at Drury now, many posters on this board WANT their team to sign him after hitting like a stud in Great America…. never mind he’s been garbage his career and was garbage after his trade… bet that will be held against him and he isn’t going to secure a multi-year contract.
The funnier things is people actually think Coors Field produces those types of results. They claim “Coors effect” and completely disregard that Milwaukee, Philly, Cincy, US Cellular, Yankee Stadium, Minutemaid park, the Snake Pit, Fenway, Baltimore all have similar hitter friendly effects.
Coors lead the league in home runs in 2022, prior to that it has led the league in home runs in over a decade. Yes, it’s constantly ranked among the highest home run hitting ballparks but it isn’t producing the same effect as it did in the 90’s.
But I hear the same ridiculous argument all the time from “folks”, Arenado was a product of Coors Field… DJ is a product of Coors field…. look at their splits….
. Humidors took care of much of the thin air effect, now it’s mostly just too much real estate to cover.
Bellinger Be lucky to get that
And one of the teams needing help in CF without any other great options is… the Dodgers.
I think the Dodgers sign Judge…. just a hunch. I think they are fine moving Lux to shortstop, playing Judge a year or two in center field before moving him to a corner position. I don’t see Betts moving to second base.
I’m skeptical about the Dodgers making a big play for Judge and I believe if they do it will in part be about moving Betts back to the infield. They’re going to want this to happen eventually to protect their longterm investment in him. Whether that happens now, or not… I have my doubts.
Dodgers moved Belli from 1B to CF to protect him. Im curious how moving Betts from RF to 2B is somehow safer?
They moved Bellinger to CF because of his ability to play this premium defensive position, and when his bat went quiet it was the only reason to play him anywhere. I also didn’t say 2B was safer, it’s simply less wear-and-tear on the body, especially the legs.
I know it’s Scott Boras Corp., but with so many FA, I am curious how involved Boras is personally with the negotiations, or if it gets to a certain point and one of his junior agents summon the bat phone — ostensibly, when bidding team gets to the end of a “Boras Book.”
The seemingly sane underlings probably negotiate contract terms, and then they bring in Boras at the end to start the hypnosis/mind games, or whatever sorcery he does that convinces teams to give out long term deals to players like Eric Hosmer lol.
Is The Backend Starting Pitching Market About To Move?
– Maybe, maybe not. But most likely, it will start happening a bit after New Year when teams realized they need some guys who can give them 5+ innings with about 4.00 ERAs.
Will Any Of The “Big Four” Shortstops Sign Before The End Of The Year?
– No, they will all hold out through spring training for the MAX money of $1B for 1 year.
How High Will Cody Bellinger’s Salary Go?
– No one will sign him and he’ll go play in the American Association this year for the Fargo Moorhead RedHawks.
Tooting your own horn about being 20% off a predicted salary isn’t really worth putting in an article. That’ll be like bragging when Correa gets $260mm instead of a predicted $325mm contract.
I dont think they are bragging
They often report what their prediction was regardless if they were close, exactly on the # or way off.
It’s their way of getting you to click around the site, thus getting more ads thus getting more revenue
It’s just what good run businesses do my friend
I get what your saying. I did the same math. 20% off is pretty far from “not far”. 80% is a B-/C+ grade.
Knowing the Jays were in talks with the Dodgers to aquire Belli before his non tender, I’m surprised they didn’t just bite the bullet send a lottery ticket and eat the 18 million to NOT have any competition.
Even after hearing all the talking heads say TO is the front runner for his services, we’ll probably get outbid by someone offering something stupid
Jaysfan1981;
All this talk is comical to me.
My 2 favorite teams going into 2023 are the Orioles and Guardians.
The O’s have Cedric Mullins in CF, the Guardians have Myles Straw as well as 2 youngsters behind him. None of those guys are getting anywhere near the money Bellinger is looking for. For sure Mullins and Straw play a better CF than he does, and while Straw is a crummy hitter he’s no worse than Bellinger…plus he steals bases. Mullins is far, far better offensively both in hitting and stealing bases.
I don’t understand how so many teams that think they’re contenders don’t have a decent CF.
The same above goes for the SS’s……
As for the 4 guys getting astronomical money – Baltimore has 4 guys that can play ML SS – a few now in AAA. Cleveland has 5 counting AAA. Cincinnati has 3 top SS prospects in the high minors. The Yankees have 3. The Red Sox have one. There are more teams developing young quality ML SS’s.
The $150m-300m contracts about to be given out are going to look out of whack in 2-3 years as those youngsters hit the majors and are traded to other clubs as their teams can only keep 2 or so. What I’m saying is that a glut of ML SS’s is around the corner, yet some teams will be stuck with astronomical / bad contracts for years into the future because they need a SS in 2023.
LOL
So few MLB franchises know how to go about building a quality ML team. Somewhere Rays FO people are shaking their heads and laughing.
Count the Jays as one of those teams with good young prospects down the middle of the Diamond. Except CF I guess.
We have a few AA and AAA SS options, as we keep hearing lots of C options.
But our only hope in CF is a reclamation project or overpaying the best FA available.
Can’t have it all I guess, and in comparison the Jays seem to be doing it right (so far)
Wouldn’t be mad to see them Sign Turner and move Bo, using Orelvis as trade bait for an Ace
“So few MLB franchises know how to go about building a quality ML team. Somewhere Rays FO people are shaking their heads and laughing.”
Somewhere the Rays FO people are trying to figure out how to win a World Series and having NO success…
Does Boras slide down a pole when summoned in his stately Boras Manor?
Really, if Bellinger wants to prove himself, he’s going to need to take a haircut on the salary. No one is going to spend $18M+ per year for a guy hitting .200 with 17 HRs.
I think if the dollar figure was okay for a trade the Dodgers would have offered it and made the trade. He’s got enough suitors because the want is a short term deal for an average market value.
Boras needs to worry a bit about the musical chairs problem…at some point, teams will have spent their budgets and there will be a few players that will not have the suitors they expect. Bellinger Conforto and Gallo are going to want opt-outs because they are coming off poor performances, and those types of contracts may be difficult to get at a later stage for these players.
The opt outs for those three players will be automatic as they’re likely all signing one year deals.
Bellinger is just stealing money!
I really don’t understand why FO’s tolerate Boras and his reindeer games.
Like the “Mystery Team” BS.
DBH1969;
Because they’re desperate.
The quality teams scout, acquire, develop, and maintain their own players.
Mr. Boras makes his clients and his company a fortune off of well heeled franchises that can’t do the paragraph above.
If any team pays Belli close to 20M they’re insane. He can’t hit and while his defense and baserunning are above average, that’s not worth that kind of money.
The baserunning part of his resume cracks me up! Yes, hes fast and a good baesrunner. Problem is, he doesnt get on enough for that to be a real asset. If he walked a lot like Muncy, then I could see getting excited about that aspect of his game. As it is, it’s like getting excited about Hanser Alberto’s relief stats.
I have to say I will not miss hearing the term “Big 4” anymore. I just hope it doesn’t reincarnate itself next off-season in the form of “Big 3” pitchers or “Big 2” managers or “Big” anything for that matter.
You and me both Trumbo! I’m so sick of it ha.
Given how weak the market is on position players next year, we could see a guy or two look for an opt out after a season again. For some reason I could see Swanson being that guy due to the great season he had but lack of track record.
“Will there be any movement between now and the end of the year?”
The NHL’s free agency lasts basically 4 hours. 90% of the players sign the first day.
It’s wild how long baseball’s lasts in comparison.
who has the bigger swing & Miss rate BELLINGER or Marcelle Osuna of The braves?
Dodgers are so loaded, it’s ridiculous,James Outman will play center, Miguel Vargas plays third, Michael Busch at Second, Lux moves to short, no Aaron Judge but they’ll sign Rodon,won 111 last year, 120 this year, Dodgers are so far ahead of everybody rlse
Despite Bellinger’s ceiling, I’d go $9 mil incentive laden contract. I am a Dodger fan, the guy has focus problems.