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Max Kepler Has Drawn Trade Interest

By Darragh McDonald | December 8, 2022 at 11:20pm CDT

Twins outfielder Max Kepler has drawn trade interest, according to Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The report doesn’t list any specific teams that are interested in Kepler, nor does it say that the Twins are actively shopping him. But the fact that Kepler’s name has come up in conversations is noteworthy nonetheless.

Kepler, 30 in February, has spent his entire career in the Twins organization thus far, having been signed by them back in 2009 at the age of 16. He made it to the majors by 2015 and proved to be a serviceable player in his first few seasons. His bat was slightly subpar at that time, as he was hitting .233/.313/.417 at the end of the 2018 season, which included 1,633 plate appearances. That production was 5% below league average, as indicated by his 95 wRC+. However, he was still able to produce value with his speed and defense, as all of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average looked fondly upon his work on the grass.

Going into 2019, with Kepler having just turned 26, the Twins took a gamble on him by signing him to a five-year, $35MM extension. There was certainly risk involved since Kepler had yet to show above-average capabilities at the plate, but he came with a solid floor from the baserunning and glovework. After one year of that deal, he made the Twins look like geniuses. He hit 36 home runs and produced an overall slash line of .252/.336/.519 for a wRC+ of 122. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 3.8 wins above replacement on the year.

He hasn’t been able to maintain that level of production, however. He slipped to a wRC+ of 109 in 2020 and then 97 and 95 in the two seasons after that. Those aren’t disastrous numbers and he’s still strong in other areas. Despite below-average work with the bat in each of the past two seasons, he still produced 2.3 fWAR in 2021 and 2.0 this year.

Kepler is now entering the final guaranteed season of that aforementioned extension, where he will make a salary of $8.5MM with a $10MM club option for 2024 that has a $1MM buyout. That level of pay is more than reasonable for a solid outfielder, though it’s unlikely to give him tremendous trade value. As mentioned by Gleeman and Hayes, though Kepler is receiving interest, it’s not enough for him “to be the centerpiece of a deal bringing back a prominent player.”

There are some parallels to Hunter Renfroe, another good-but-not-elite corner outfielder. Over the past couple of seasons, Renfroe has produced 4.5 fWAR, right in the same range as the 4.3 that Kepler produced. He’s going into his final season of arbitration eligibility and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $11.2MM salary. The Brewers recently traded him to the Angels for three young pitchers, none of whom were especially highly rated by prospect evaluators.

Kepler is arguably a more attractive target than Renfroe since the 2024 club option provides a bit of upside should he find that higher gear that he had in 2019, but he’s not likely to net a huge return. However, the Twins might entertain trade offers regardless because their outfield picture is somewhat crowded. Byron Buxton should have center field locked down as long as he’s healthy, while Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are also in the mix to varying degrees. Many of those players dealt with injuries in 2022 and aren’t guarantees to be healthy next year, but that’s still a lot of candidates for two corner outfield jobs and the designated hitter slot. Those players all still have years of cheap control remaining, as none of them have reached the three-year service mark so far. Kepler is more established than any of them but his higher salary and proximity to free agency make him a more logical trade candidate for Minnesota.

The Twins shouldn’t be tight for cash right now, though that could change. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at just $98MM at the moment. Last year, they opened the season at $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which leaves them plenty of wiggle room. However, they have apparently made multiple offers to Correa with varying lengths and salaries. It was one year ago that he and the team made a surprising connection on a three-year deal that saw him paid $35.1MM annually, but with the opt-out that he eventually triggered. If they were to reconnect on anything in that salary range, their payroll would suddenly be right back in line with last year’s spending. If money is suddenly tight, trading Kepler could be away of trimming a few bucks while simultaneously addressing other target areas such as the catching corps or the bullpen.

Though no specific teams have been connected to Kepler, it stands to reason that his market would largely overlap with other left-handed hitting outfielders like Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger. The Cubs already landed Bellinger and Nimmo is going back to the Mets, but some other teams that have been interested in that group include the Blue Jays, Giants, Astros and many others. Bellinger reportedly had 11 teams interested in his services at one point, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Any team that fails to line up on Benintendi or Conforto could theoretically look to Kepler as a backup plan, though they could also call the Diamondbacks, who are likely to deal from their own outfield surplus.

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Minnesota Twins Max Kepler

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View Comments (73)

Comments

  1. Highest_IQ

    2 months ago

    Wouldn’t be a bad idea to trade for some MLB ready pitching.

    Reply
    • Stan Konit

      2 months ago

      No added value. If he didn’t show up one day, there wouldn’t be a rush to go looking.

      Reply
      • myaccount2

        2 months ago

        His value is in his baserunning and defense, like explained in the article. Teams value those two things highly, especially a team like the Twins. They definitely would be in a rush to go looking.

        Reply
  2. Melchez17

    2 months ago

    Trade for Kepler? Why?

    Reply
    • Mattimeo09

      2 months ago

      “Their outfield picture is somewhat crowded.” He’s 6’4” so clearly they need someone shorter.
      Or maybe a bigger camera?

      Reply
    • someoldguy

      2 months ago

      Money.. no room at the inn for the prospects.. who if not injured.. Lurch and Karloff… and then you have Garlic who has been really saucy against Lefties.. The Commissioner Gordon who doesn’t have a spot by looks like the back up CF… Kepler is expendable.. so is one of the others Lurch or Karloff or Garlic…

      Reply
      • stymeedone

        2 months ago

        So if they do sign Correa, that’s it? Can’t add anymore? Payroll will be maxed? They will be White Sox North! Then don’t sign him!

        Reply
      • fre5hwind

        2 months ago

        Or Celestino but I don’t really follow the guy.

        Reply
    • Stevil

      2 months ago

      Any team looking to acquire Kepler understands that he doesn’t chase or whiff much and shows excellent plate discipline as well as zone contact.. The numbers haven’t translated for a few years, but it’s easy to see a team like the Dodgers or Astros believing they can find an adjustment that turns things around for him.

      Reply
  3. Mattimeo09

    2 months ago

    How can the Twins MAXimize their return on Kepler?

    Reply
    • someoldguy

      2 months ago

      by adding other parts to him..

      Reply
    • TwinWin

      2 months ago

      Petition to reinstate Bauer

      https://www.mlb.com/news/trevor-bauer-breaks-down-max-kepler-s-5-straight-homers

      Reply
  4. Jaysfan1981

    2 months ago

    This is NOT the LHH outfielder the Jays need

    So naturally this is probably who we’ll trade Moreno Tieddeman and Orelvis for lol

    Reply
    • Saskatchewan Jaysfan

      2 months ago

      While I’m glad the Jays management didn’t sign someone to a ridiculous contract such as Nimmo(8 years at $162 million for a player who has only played 2 seasons of 100+ games out of 7 while in his 20s), it is a little disappointing that they ended up doing nothing at all. I get this feeling that we’re gonna have all 3 catchers on the team by spring, while having very little depth in our outfield.

      Reply
      • Jaysfan1981

        2 months ago

        Bellinger was the guy. He could have manned CF for the year, done ok or even poorly with the bat but provided stability on D. He would have bought another year until we needed to cash in our trade chaips, lowering values for a Reynolds or Varsho next off-season as another years been burnt.

        Worst case Springer is still 80 games in CF with Merrifield playing the other half in CF.

        Leaves a hole in RF filled by Biggio?? While Springer is in CF. I guess they’ll rotate Biggio in out of RF 2nd and Whit CF 2nd. Espinal is probably at 2nd alot too.

        It’s not like we have no one, we’re just trying to improve without giving everything away and having a 5 year slump of nothingness

        Reply
        • IndianRye

          2 months ago

          Should take RHH straw and a mid-tier prospect from Cleveland for one of your catchers.

        • Jaysfansince92

          2 months ago

          No thank you. They already have players who can give them similar production. No need in wasting a valuable asset on aquiring another one. Also the Jays are in win now mode so taking back prospects for mlb assets doesnt make much sense.

        • IndianRye

          2 months ago

          I understand. My season projections have straw having a breakout year including hitting 260 7 hr 40sb and a war of 4. Bet it doesn’t happen but how cool would that be lol my formula is usually pretty close five or take, I have no idea why it’s saying that about straw. And SP Morris would be the mid tiar player.

        • myaccount2

          2 months ago

          Just curious: how do you get to your projections? You don’t have to share the formula, but what do you value or what factors are utilized that get you to .260 and 7 HR for Straw?

    • KamKid

      2 months ago

      1981, I’m a Jays fan who would take Kepler. Maybe he’s not “the” LH outfielder they need, but they do need more than one and Kepler could be in the mix even if it’s in a platoon or part time bench bat role. At the moment, Whit Merrifield is projected as being in the Starting lineup in the OF. Getting a guy like Kepler at least gives them a platoon there and then they can shop for an upgrade. Though if they are going to take the $10m of Kepler, I’d hope they send the $7m of Merrifield the other way.

      Reply
  5. drasco036

    2 months ago

    Kepler is the type of guy that makes you question the value of WAR… I don’t see how anyone can slash what he slashed and post a positive offensive WAR.

    Reply
    • YourDreamGM

      2 months ago

      Defense and base running?

      Reply
      • drasco036

        2 months ago

        Yeah but don’t you have to get on base for “base running” to matter? Just a thought

        Reply
    • tonyhoag

      2 months ago

      If you don’t understand, WAR includes more than batting

      Reply
      • mrkinsm

        2 months ago

        pretty sure he understands that and is talking specifically about oWAR – which he posted +11.8 career (bref version)

        Reply
      • drasco036

        2 months ago

        He posted a positive WAR on offense and had an ops plus well under .700.
        He’s a right fielder with no home run power. He doesn’t hit extra base hits. Doesn’t steal bases. Doesn’t get on base. But he can “run the bases well” sign me up captain the guy can play some defense.

        Reply
        • Baldkid

          2 months ago

          Doesn’t hit home runs? maybe not in ’22, but am I missing something? Other than Covid year, dude has 17 to 36 a year.

        • drasco036

          2 months ago

          Yeah apparently you are missing something because aside from 2019, when the ball was juiced and flying out of the ballpark at a record, the most he hit was 20… maybe a corner outfielder with solid teens power is cool in your book but that isn’t going to cut it unless he is a doubles machine with solid on base and a good batting average.

        • Baldkid

          2 months ago

          Career OPS+ 101, with an OPS of .744, and averages 23 doubles, 18 HR & 57 RBIs. His entire year he has been pretty much league average.

          If he were to play in LA, Chicago or NY, he’d be considered a “hot item”.. Compare him to Joey Gallo, Kepler has less power, but better defense. OPS+ Gallo 109 / Kepler 101. Overall career WAR Kepler 16.9 / Gallo 14.7..

        • Digdugler

          2 months ago

          Gallo is bad too.

        • Baldkid

          2 months ago

          …and yet, Gallo will likely get a contract in the $8-10M range

        • drasco036

          2 months ago

          What’s his career OPS + when you remove the year where the ball was juiced more than Barry Bonds?
          The only other time he posted an OPS+ above league average was in 2020… in 49 games….

          His entire career he’s been below league average offensively.

        • Baldkid

          2 months ago

          And now it’s reported that the Yankees are interested in a trade for Kepler.

    • tonyhoag

      2 months ago

      I’ve watched him as a twins fan his whole career. He would be a fantastic 4th outfielder on any team. He just never broke out besides the 2019 year when all the balls were flying out.

      Reply
  6. DeGrom Texas Ranger

    2 months ago

    He can send many balls into orbit. He would make Johannes Kepler very proud.

    (99.99% won’t get the reference)

    Reply
    • Jaysfan1981

      2 months ago

      The Kepler space Telescope for those wondering

      Reply
      • DeGrom Texas Ranger

        2 months ago

        Kepler’s laws of planetary motion, to be specific

        Reply
        • The Saber-toothed Superfife

          2 months ago

          Typical. Americans tearing down other Americans with tremendous respect for their fellow man and fellow Americans……

          Any wonder this country is self imploding….??????

        • DeGrom Texas Ranger

          2 months ago

          I was just saying this because my Physics teacher in high school told me most people don’t know this guy when I asked why nobody ever had the headline “Kepler sends ball into orbit.” I wish this percent were much lower.

          To be fair, it’s probably 15-20 percent. It’s just that Physics doesn’t seem to get much attention. I wasn’t commenting on anyone’s ignorance necessarily – just how Physics is not popular enough. It lays the groundwork for baseball anaysis.

    • richardc

      2 months ago

      I think it is probably more 60/40 than 99% ..lol

      Reply
  7. Ignorant Son-of-a-b

    2 months ago

    This guy is about as exciting as watching paint dry. To me, about the most anonymous forgettable regular on any team. It’s hard for me to comprehend why anybody would be interested in him, plugging in a AAA outfielder to assess talent would make just as much sense. I wouldn’t want this guy even if somebody gave him to me. Sorry Max, no hard feelings though.

    Reply
    • blackandorange

      2 months ago

      You evidently don’t watch much baseball. Or you just aren’t interested in anyone who isn’t a superstar. The kind of person who doesn’t understand that non All-Stars are important on a team, too. If they aren’t hitting 40+ HRs, no room for them on your team, right? If you’re not first, you’re last. Am I pretty close here?

      Reply
      • Ignorant Son-of-a-b

        2 months ago

        Naw but however you slice it and dice it the guy is just a bland mediocrity, a scoop of vanilla, I can’t imagine what upside he could possibly add to my team, for instance, Mariner Nation. I admit it may sound like I have some irrational vendetta against him and I wish I did because then perhaps he would leave at least an impression on me other than “AnonymousNothingBurger.” I apologize though for my tepid remarks, he sounds like your Favorite #1 Player Of All Time and it always feels poopy when your guy gets disrespected. Feel your pain bro

        Reply
        • myaccount2

          2 months ago

          I’m also a Mariners fan but I don’t want him simply because we need a bat-first. player at this point. It’s clear he’s valuable in the field and on the bases, and those two things provide a lot of value. If we had a team full of sluggers, I’d be happy to add him because a positive fielder in RF is so valuable, but he just doesn’t fit our roster construction.

      • JoeBrady

        2 months ago

        If you’re not first, you’re last.

        ===============================

        Oh yeah. If you read some of the comments from some RS fans, it would seem better to pay $20M to a slightly better than average player, than pay $6M to an average player.

        While there are exceptions, success is built on WAR/$$$ spent.

        Reply
        • Waymann

          2 months ago

          Agreed about $/WAR Joe. As an O’s fan, he kind of reminds me of Nick Markasis…not so much in play style but as in the consistency of his value and availability.

          Max isn’t likely to put up all-star numbers but is equally as unlikely to tank whatever team he’s on with below-average play. There’s some inherent value in a guy who can show up and put up 2.0 WAR year after year.

          I could easily envision a team saying “As long as this dude keeps doing what he’s been doing, we get what we need out of him especially at the price point/trade chips it would take to get him. Any extra value is just gravy or additional leverage to pick up his option and try to trade him at peak value.”

        • JoeBrady

          2 months ago

          He’s also a high-floor type, and I value that. He might not get you the 2.5 or so, but he is pretty unlikely to drop below 1.5. And I am a fan of teams that have 26 solid+ players.

    • KamKid

      2 months ago

      IgnorantSOB, from a Blue Jays fan perspective, Kepler kind of strikes me as a little bit Grichuk-ish. Similar type of extension hoping for a breakout. Now a guy who struggles to be average. But as to why a team would trade for him, there’s always a reason. When the Blue Jays traded Grichuk for Tapia, one radio/podcast host summed it up as “Tapia is going to suck in a more useful way than Grichuk sucks”. And that’s pretty much how it turned out. From that perspective, I’d love a Merrifield for Kepler trade. Close to salary neutral and while both are below league average hitters, Merrifield does it by being aggressive with no power so it leads to easy outs and terrible OBPs and Kepler gets to that with at least the stability of a decent plate approach. Right now, the Jays have too much of what Merrifield does and not enough of what Kepler does. Kepler looks to be unlucky too given he seems to have really good expected stats compared to actual, but that’s a recurring trend. New shift rule breakout candidate?

      Reply
  8. someoldguy

    2 months ago

    Lewis is an infielder… Gordon is an infielder who maybe better suited to the outfield… Lurch and Karloff are unproved prospects… the DH spot needs to be held Open so Buxton can get 1/2 of his AB’s there.. leaving 1/2 for Lurch and Karloff.. Kepler is the odd man out… besides.. Package Kepler with Lurch or Karloff.. and whoevery and make Oakland a deal they can’t refuse for Murphy..

    Reply
  9. richardc

    2 months ago

    I could see the Braves looking into acquiring Kepler.

    I say that based off nothing more than he just seems like a decent fit to replace Grossman off the roster last season…

    Well, that, and I believe they’ve looked into acquiring him in the not so distant past as well..So there’s that too..lol

    I wouldn’t mind it, depending on who they had to give up, but I also wouldn’t be terribly excited about it either…

    Reply
    • MJ

      2 months ago

      8.5 million is too expensive for them

      Reply
      • Joeyg2033

        2 months ago

        I agree. Braves are the best team at dumpster diving and buying below value on TJS recovery players…For a top five payroll team they seem notoriously cheap. Sort of oxymoronic when you think about it…

        Reply
    • stymeedone

      2 months ago

      Why not resign Grossman?

      Reply
  10. The Big Yo

    2 months ago

    Oakland A’s $16mil over 2 years

    Reply
    • blackandorange

      2 months ago

      He’s not a free agent, but ok… Any chance you get to show your lack of baseball knowledge, right?

      Reply
  11. MPrck

    2 months ago

    Hitter’s in baseball are really getting their stats in a uproar with the dead ball. sure Max had less at bats in 22 than 19, but boy the power of the jet ball is enormous. Well everyone is getting paid well this year, but wow, big difference in the stats. . MLB, fix the baseballs once an for all.

    Reply
  12. StudWinfield

    2 months ago

    Wouldn’t mind Kepler in the Yankee OF mix if they manage to rid themselves of Hicks.

    Reply
  13. phantomofdb

    2 months ago

    More articles about how the twins are talking and thinking but not actually doing.

    Reply
  14. CaptainJudge99

    2 months ago

    @Mattime009-Try the MINI-mum, this poor guys always hurt. The Twinkies won’t get much value for him.

    Reply
  15. ❤️ MuteButton

    2 months ago

    Somebody thinks they can fix his swing as long as Minnesota pays half as contract? This dude’s career is on a trajectory the wrong way

    Reply
  16. 3768902

    2 months ago

    I’m guessing teams are thinking his offense will improve with new shift rule starting next year. Dude is a pullside gb machine.

    Reply
  17. fathead0507

    2 months ago

    Rangers need a LF… and they have some SP to move

    Reply
  18. JoeBrady

    2 months ago

    If the Twins ate some money, I think the RS should take a (small) look. My preference is Story to SS and sign Segura, but if Cohen or Preller give Segura $100M/4, the Kiki to 2nd and Kepler to CF might not be the worst of all evils.

    Reply
  19. bodam

    2 months ago

    White Sox were rumored to be looking into him earlier this offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is their “answer” to our problems of not having any corner outfielders, especially left-handed hitting ones.

    It seems to fit their narrative now that Nimmo and Bellinger have been signed.

    Reply
    • CluHaywood

      2 months ago

      Yea, White Sox trading for subpar, left handed hitting RFs has been their trademark. So tired of Reinsdorf and his small market BS.

      Reply
  20. slydevil

    2 months ago

    This would be a bad idea for the twins to sell low. It’s been well documented that the shift has tanked keplers numbers. They should at least see what happens this year now that period is over.

    With how many times this year I had to hear – “next year that’s a hit” when Kepler was up. I think he’ll have a good season.

    Reply
    • Stan Konit

      2 months ago

      And we’re to assume that the next hitting coach can fix that?

      Reply
      • slydevil

        2 months ago

        Not a fix, hit the same with no shift.

        Reply
  21. Jrnomo100

    2 months ago

    Trade Matz for him give them a 4 starter.

    Reply
    • Stan Konit

      2 months ago

      And push the entire rotation down to 5 where they belong?

      Reply
  22. marlinsfan818

    2 months ago

    Earth to Marlins

    Reply
  23. CluHaywood

    2 months ago

    White Sox are in this mix for some reason, despite Benintendi being available to just sign. But nope, Reinsdorf’s cheap a$$ won’t sign anyone.

    Reply
  24. SeñorTortas

    2 months ago

    Makes sense for the Dodgers. Elite defense in RF, strong K:BB ratio with underlying power. Moves Betts over to CF, taking care of that problem and suddenly giving them a little more depth

    Reply

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