Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.
The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.
In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.
That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:
- Rangers (47)
- Angels (67)
- Marlins (81)
- Tigers (88)
- Red Sox (91)
- A’s (94)
- Reds (95)
- Pirates (97)
- Braves (97)
- Twins (98)
A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.
Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:
- Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
- Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
- Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.
Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.
The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.
What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?
(poll link for app users)
An Orioles Fan suggested it today, that Profar would be a good fit
No, it was not me
I wanted Joey Gallo or JBJ…. JBJ appears to still to have a half a shot of happening, although no rumors, not even a whisper has been heard about him this off-season
Gallo is gone and I am not sure how Profar would help the O’s, except that he is a solid player with some power.
He is way out the Orioles price range of the league minimum
That too
When the Padres were rebuilding..you know, not that long ago, they weren’t signing big dollar free agents either.
Actually they did since they signed Hosmer in 2018. Only in 2016 and 2017 were they rebuilding without making any major signings.sure the Hosmer move was terrible, but they were ready to invest after 2 years of rebuilding.
Gallo was my favorite player until deGrom (even when he was on the Yankees and Dodgers). I really wanted him at the 11 million bargain since his average should just 0.050 to 0.075, given his hard hit ball percentage and the tremendous shifting. It should help psychologically too. Hitless slumps probably compound, so getting a single here and there should likely help with doubles, triples, and homeruns to some extent due to confidence-building. Also, he wouldn’t have to mess up his mind trying to beat the shift. The game is meant to have 1 shortstop and 1 second baseman, not 2-3 shortstops or second baseman. There are outfielders who should play in the outfield, and infielders who should play in the infield. Otherwise, it just undermines the whole point of positions.
Orioles fans mostly laughed at me about suggesting Gallo
I get his average was awful, but I loved his defense and would have been perfect in the Camden Yards Canyon.
Are these the same types of fans who hate position players who don’t hit .300 and drive in 75 or more runs every year? For pitching, it’s probably win 15 games every season, regardless of your team. He did have a .986 OPS in 2019 and a .869 OPS recently with Texas in 2021.
@Degrom Texas Ranger Most fans don’t want to see a guy hit under the Mendoza line who hits an occasional homerun every now and then. Not to mention that most of his outs are strikeouts
Shift or no shift, that strikeout isn’t getting thru.
*should increase by 0.050 to 0.075
Eh.. Orioles.. then they will trade Santander for pitching
2 of Ragans, Otto, and Howard for Santander?
The Rangers should stay away from the largest prospect bust in the history of the world. He was consensus #1 and turned out to be a well below-average player. He would constantly remind Texas of how much their development failed. Also, I find it interesting that it seems Texas greatly dragged down the mean so much that the 5th to 10th rated teams are in the 90s when 100 is average. It made little sense to go all out on pitching instead of being balanced this offseason. I know they will likely get a left fielder, but that should have been a higher priority after getting Odorizzi, deGrom, and Heaney.
Largest prospect bust in the history of the world? Methinks that you need a history lesson. I know that you were being hyberbolic to a point, but any prospect that matures into an actual major league starter for a period of time, even if they never reach their projected ceiling, is not a bust.
“Matures into an actual major league starter” isn’t the same as “gets pushed to the big leagues due to hype/lack of positional depth and never should have been there in the first place.” Obviously, it was a hyperbole. Find me other number 1 prospects who have busted to this magnitude.
Look – I am not picking on you, but this is so easy. Heck, my own Phils can supply you with answers. 1/1 picks that are ACTUAL busts? Mickey Moniak. Mark Appel (Houston pick that we traded for).
Otherwise – Brady Aiken / Matt Bush / Bryan Bullington / Matt Anderson / Paul Wilson / Brien Taylor / Shawn Abner / Al Chambers / David Clyde / Mike Ivie / Steve Chilcott. All were 1/1 picks. And that is without even going into top international signings that were utter busts – every team has a bunch of those over time.
You seem like a good dude, but if you are going to constantly go out on a limb with bold declarations (probably the most common failing on here for quite a few commenters), it helps to broaden the perspective a bit. Baseball is a wonderful game for intellectual speculation – it requires some nuance however and definitely requires more than researching stats and metrics. This is a part of what draws all of us to the magic of the game.
Someone like Profar is a disappointment given the lofty expectations, however he would not even be on a top 100 list of relative busts. The odds for any draftee or international signing to make it as an impact player of any sort are long. He is basically what is called a second division starter, or a quality ute on a competitive team. Divorce yourself from the expectations, and he beat the odds. He will easily play over ten years in the majors and very few ever get to that point.
*Sorry, I meant number 1 prospects, not 1/1 picks. I am aware of Bush, Delmon Young, Bullington, Clyde, etc. ofc
I am saying US scouts messed this up, not just the team. If all 3 sites, MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus agree on something, something clearly went wrong. Since MLB.com has had these (2010), only Moore and Benintendi have been below what has been expected. Profar blew them away in disappointment level. Others have yet to fail or have succeeded, depending on year. Surely, there are teams getting cheap in round 1 to save more pool $ for later picks. I change that to probably top 5 bust amongst consensus number 1 prospects in baseball history (not that long a time span, but still something). I just hate Profar profoundly and want him far from the Pros. mlb.com/app/atbat/prospects?partnerId=mlbapp-andro…
This is just over a decade, but even then, that’s enough to show how much Profar stands out here.
Same answer, with the caveat that that the success rate will be much higher due to the fact that those ranked prospects have progressed much further up the food chain and are usually approaching that last jump.
Simply going with those that were a #1 rank is a specious argument, as the rankings of top prospects is such an arbitrary thing (note the various disagreements between the ranking services). But if you look at the top 5 or top ten (which are the elite of the elite) there are a ton of failures. It is the nature of the game.
Just because you hate JP for some reason does not mean that reason and perspective should go out the window. Baseball has an incredibly large failure rate – much higher than other major sports. At every level there is a jump that many fail to clear, and the largest hurdle is from the top of the minors to the majors. This is why we overvalue prospects – we want to identify with them when they are ours, and we know the value if they end up becoming a major league star, or at least a quality starter.
Sharp GM’s play the game well…they know that even when the fan base has already declared a young top prospect to be the next Willie Mays, the reality is that the odds are still against them (note the whining elsewhere about trading Triston Freakin’ Casas for heaven’s sake for a quality starting pitcher). If one looks back at trades over the years, so many times the fans have been overwrought at the time that the team uses good prospect capital to improve the major league roster.
And yet when we look back, most of the time the team that gets the best major leaguer wins the deal .I remember being upset at the price that the Phils paid for Doc Halladay – D’Arnaud / Drabek / Michael Taylor and someone else…the same with acquiring Cliff Lee from Cleveland. The price in young talent scared me at the time, even though I loved bringing those great pitchers to the team. In reality we got Doc and Cliff!!, and what we gave up was a much more than acceptable price (Carrasco turned out well for the Indians, and D’Arnaud eventually panned out. Basically, we stole them.
“Prospects be prospects”…..
I keep looking at Profar’s stats and trying to figure out how a corner OF who hit .243 with a decent OBP and 15 home runs is a 3 WAR player. Nothing against Jurickson Profar, I just don’t get it. Is offense down that much around the league?
He hit 36 doubles, 2 Triples and he walks at a good clip. Decent OBP. 111 OPs+
He also played all year, that’s why his WAR is so high. He’s a slightly above average player. 11% better than avg lol
Good work. Nailed it. Fine analysis.
A huge part of that WAR stat is because he had 658 plate appearances.
This is because WAR is nonsense. He gets high marks for defense and WAR refers to a minor leaguer. WAA is more useful since it compares the guy to average, so it’s harder to just accumulate by playing more. See Marcus Semien and how his WAR exceeds Juan Soto’s WAR for another example. Profar has had terrible range and fielding percentages his whole career, including this season, yet somehow metrics say he is above average. That’s absurd.
Agreed, WAR is absurd as are most of these new fangled stats. Just an excuse to discount lack of contact, i.e. low batting average, and high strikeouts in my opinion.
I look for guys that make contact and don’t strikeout much, period. I think home runs are also overrated, honestly. If they are solo shots, a lot of times they don’t help a lot if you are down 10-1 because your bullpen is crap. If you are knocking in a lot of runs with them, however, that’s a different story.
I agree. Anyone who worships WAR and discounts RBIs has never played the game of baseball at a high level.
What I don’t agree with is Profars decision to opt out of his $7.5M contract this year with the Padres.
Agreed. I thought that was short sighted of him too, from the outside looking in. Sometimes these guys are a legend in their own mind.
rhandome, Agree, Profar opted out of his 2023 deal with the Padres for $8.33 million and instead elected for the $1 million buyout. SMH, the initial 3-year 21M deal he had from the Padres was fair.
I think my guess for Orioles was off by 1000 miles.
I think a team like the Orioles makes sense (as well as many teams mentioned in this chat), but the problem is his agent surely promised more than $7.5M this year and/or that he could get a longer term contract.
Profar should have taken the $7.5M, enjoy a season on the competitive Padres, and see if he can use the new shift rules to better his stats for a new 2024+ contract.
As a Rangers fan I’d stay away from Profar. I’d take a flier on Duvall. He’s cheaper and got a higher ceiling (and at least would be a Gold Glove defender). Or trade for Reynolds
I would too, but they seem to want 3-4 top 100 prospects with a few at the very top. A left fielder who was only a few percentage above average in hitting in Varsho got a top 10 catching prospect and a better hitting outfielder for 1 or 2 seasons (idk which source is correct, Bref or Cots). Imagine the haul they would demand for him. Kepler, McCarthy (whose brother we signed), Thomas, Gurriel, Yelich++, Hays, Mullins, Santander, and others could be had for much cheaper, though I fear Baltimore will overemphasize WAR and try to fool guys like the Dbacks apparently did with Varsho. But, I agree 100% that they should stay far away from Profar.
If only he still played SS he’d be getting $200m right now.
Somewhere around Swanson’s salary, yes. It makes me cringe not just that MLB inflation has greatly outpaced the CPI rate, but also that guys like this get paid so much. I would add Semien to this list, though he did have 2 above average offensive seasons in his career before the contract.
Don’t rule out the Mets. They could use a fourth OF’er, DH, and PH bat. Profar could be the guy. Maybe.
Or a 3rd SS, because, why not?
The Reds got you beat. Of the top five prospects, four are shortstops. You can only play one of them. You have to love that pre-planning.
It’s common to have multiple SS and then move some them off the position. The Padres have 6 position player starters who played SS at one point in their professional career. (Tatis, Xander, Machado, Kim, Cronenworth, and Nola).
If their SS prospects all panned out, the Reds could play De La Cruz at 3B, Marte in CF, McClain at 2B and Arroyo at SS, or some other combination like that. Way better to have a ton of SS that you can move around than to be stuck with 1B/DH prospects who you can’t.
Unfortunately the Mariners are only offering unpaid internships at the moment.
Any chance he’d be interested in that? Would look great on a resumé!
They extended Rodriguez and Castillo while signing Ray in the last year. They also got Winkler and Suarez last offseason and took on Suarez’s bad deal (at thst time). I wouldn’t consider that cheap.
In their most important offseason in 20 years their big signing was Trevor Gott.
That’s cheap.
They were better positioned with payroll room than most teams in contention and had several holes to fill…and their big signing was Trevor Gott.
That’s cheap.
They are at the point on the win curve where one or two wins might be the difference between making the playoffs and not. Everyone else they are competing with got better. Texas signed deGrom. They signed Trevor Gott.
That’s cheap.
They told their fan base for years to be patient, that they were building a war chest with the saved money and that when the team was a contender again they’d open up their wallets and use that saved money to go after the generational talent available in this free agent class. They signed Trevor Gott.
That’s cheap.
They have nearly $400 million in revenue and only invested $1 million in the free agent market at a time they desperately needed to improve in some key spots.
That’s cheap.
They just got a $30 million payout from MLB and they only invested $1 million in free agency.
That’s cheap.
They spend barely 33% of their revenue on payroll.
That’s cheap.
They spent $300 million in taxpayer money to build a stadium and then refused to invest in improving the team after they finally had a contender after 20 years.
That’s cheap,
They let Mitch Haniger walk for nothing when he was affordable and they needed his bat and they had glaring holes at LF and DH
That’s cheap.
They got outspent by the Pirates and the Marlins in free agency.
That’s cheap.
PS..I think Trevor Gott might be a decent signing.
Naw, not cheap. Sounds like you would whine about something no matter what they did. Your take is wrong. Why overpay to an extraordinary amount, at an extraordinary term, for a 30-something year old declining player? You must like albatross contracts. The Mariners deserve all the credit in the world for not spending like drunken sailors.
But is there team a playoff contender?
@ Selah Rick
They made the made the playoffs, of course they are a playoff contender. But now they are far from strong favorites to make it now because they stood still while everyone else got better.
How do you figure there standing still? In a span of 1 year they have added Castillo,Ray,Winker, Suarez, Frazier, Wong, Teoscar. Extended Castillo, Munoz,Julio, Crawford. Rumor is there working on extending Teoscar. JD said yesterday he is involved in the remaining free agents and the trade market. Yes the didn’t do a stupid 10 year contract that will be regretful in 4 or 5 years to make the fans happy. But to say they haven’t done anything is false. They added $25 mil contracts with Wong and Hernandez to there payroll.
None. He sucks
Lol that was my thinking is this guy a good fit anywhere was never big on the profar train he’s a bit overrated
Profar’s personal Bling WAR is definitely of All-Star caliber. Would not be at all surprised if he orders his mitts and batting gloves from Louis Vuitton.
Why he’s not yet a Yankee is a puzzler that you’ll have to answer for me. He’s long been destined for bigger arenas than Petco Park. Just ask him.
Another guy who expected a big deal but is learning reality right now. Looking at his past production, not sure why people make a big deal out of him not being signed. I think he is destined for a one year deal somewhere at not much dinero.
In other words, perfect for the Reds as he won’t cost much lettuce, eh Bob?
Contending teams can always use a player like Profar. Makes decent contact, has some pop and can play almost any position needed on any given day.
Perfect fit for my Phillies, especially since we’re gonna be without Harper until the all-star break. Won’t get 600+ ABs with us. Probably more like 400 ABs. One year at $10 million ought to be attractive to him at this point.
He would be a useful fit, but for the additional $$ (and luxury tax implications) as compared to the value I kinda’ doubt that he is high on the list.
Personally, I would bet that they are done with most of the major league deals, and are going to focus on depth additions. If they are going to spend, I would prefer to grab another pen arm with some potential impact such as a Fulmer or Chafin. Or a 5th starter such as Wacha. Given the fact that they are trying to allow for a couple of youngsters to find their way into the rotation, I would love to see them go with 6 starters for a decent stretch of the season. Don’t expect that to happen however.
As a Ranger fan I have zero desire to see Profar back. He was a complete bust. There are many other candidates that would likely perform just as well as Profar and cost less financially.
The Pirates NEED THIS
The Pirates NEED THIS MAN
Cardinals need to sign him. Trade O’Neil and others to Marlins for a starting pitcher
Above average slash? Twins don’t need another mediocre taxi driver.
The Tigers need to do something offensively for crying out loud and there’s not much left. I’d like Duval and take a shot with the Rios (Dodgers FA) kid at 3B. I have a feeling that they may low ball this guy plus incentives and actually get him though. Assuming he’s not garnering much interest like the article says, of course. Though it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s talking to 3-4 teams right now.
Indeed, the Tigers need to add. But Profar does not make much sense for them: His primary positions LF and 2B are covered (by Meadows/Carpenter and Schoop). He may produce 110 wRC+ next season, but that does not move the needle for the Tigers in 2023 and hopefully will be too little offense from 2024 onwards.
Gruß,
BSHH
Ya, I agree. There’s really nothing left. They’ll have to trade to do anything significant. It’ll be another crappy season for Detroit until we get some of our pitching back from injury. Meadows should be way better this upcoming season though.
Bottom line, Profar messed up thinking he could get more than $7.5M. Never mind last season, he had a poor season before, a good season in 2020 in 60 games, a poor season in 2019 in Oakland, despite 20 homers, a good season in 2018 with 20 homers and a .253 BA.
He has a good year only in even numbered years, and he really isn’t worth more than the $7.5M he would have gotten to stay in San Diego. Those who think the Padres will go over the $253M luxury tax tier and pay the 95% tax on the over are dreaming.
The Padres will likely move Soto to left, and install Tatis in right, with Grisham in center, and have a solid outfild without Profar. Carpenter has played both left and right and so has backup first baseman Brandon Dixon, and they signed left hitting David Dahl to a minor league contract for insurance.
As a Padres fan, I’m shaking my head at Jurickson Profar. AJ Preller showed confidence in him, giving him a 3-year deal worth 21M. Many in the San Diego media didn’t think Jurickson deserved that deal and thought AJ was just showing loyalty to another of “his guys”. Sure enough….Jurickson underwhelmed in the first part of that contract. He then had ONE good season and decided to opt-out of the remaining (2023) deal for $8.33 million and instead take the $1 million buyout. I’m NOT surprised that Jurickson Profar is still a free agent. He has never hit over .300 in his professional baseball career at any level, including the minors. Does anyone expect him to improve with age? I like Jurickson, but he walked away from a fair deal.