The Cardinals have locked up one of their starters beyond this season. St. Louis announced Friday afternoon they’ve signed Miles Mikolas to an extension that runs through 2025. The deal reportedly tacks on two years and $40MM in guarantees and comes with potential awards bonuses.
Mikolas had been set to make $15.75MM this season, the final of a four-year extension he signed back in 2019. The new deal tacks on some money up front. He’ll receive a $5MM signing bonus to be paid by July 1 and sees his 2023 salary jump to $18.75MM. The Octagon client will then earn consecutive $16MM salaries in 2024-25.
The 34-year-old Mikolas is coming off one of his finest seasons, having logged a career-high 202 1/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was well below average, but the right-hander offset that with an exceptional 4.8% walk rate and a 45% ground-ball rate that checks in a bit above average. He also limited hard contact at a better-than-average rate, evidenced by an 87.8 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate, which landed in the 65th and 66th percentile of MLB pitchers, respectively.
Locking up Mikolas is of particular importance for the Cardinals given the long-term outlook of their rotation. Adam Wainwright has already announced his intention to retire after the 2023 season, and Mikolas was set to be joined by Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty in free agency. That would’ve left Steven Matz as the only established starter under contract or club control beyond the 2023 season.
The Cardinals surely have hopes that some combination of young pitchers and prospects — Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford and Gordon Graceffo among them — will step up and stake their claim to rotation spots when opportunities present themselves this year. That’s a big bet for a team to make when facing the possibility of losing 80% of its rotation, however. Keeping Mikolas in the fold lessens some of the pressure on those young arms, retains a staff leader and proactively fills one 2024 rotation spot — health permitting, of course.
That last note shouldn’t simply be written off. While Mikolas was one of just eight MLB pitchers to reach 200 innings last year and has made 32 starts in three of the past five seasons, he’s had his share of recent injury troubles as well. He missed the entire 2020 season due to a torn flexor tendon that required surgery, and discomfort in that surgically repaired forearm/flexor area limited Mikolas to just nine starts in 2021.
The extension is a clear bet that those forearm issues are behind him and that he’s back to his workhorse ways. All signs since Opening Day 2022 have pointed to that being the case, and with Wainwright slated to open the season on the injured list, Mikolas has been announced as the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter in his place.
From a payroll vantage point, there was ample room for the Cards to make this move. They’ll open the 2023 season with a payroll of nearly $188MM (including Mikolas’ signing bonus and 2023 salary bump) but had just shy of $107MM on next year’s books prior to this deal. That doesn’t include their arbitration class, but it’s a relatively small group of eight players: Tyler O’Neill, Dakota Hudson, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Knizner, Genesis Cabrera, Dylan Carlson and Anthony Misiewicz. No one from that group is making even $5MM in 2023, and there are a handful of plausible non-tender candidates in the group as well.
A $16MM salary for Mikolas next season will bump that 2024 commitment to about $123MM. Overall, the contract’s $20MM average annual value is a bump over the $17MM AAV of his current four-year, $68MM contract — an increase that’s reflective of the contract’s shorter nature, the rising price of starting pitching on the open market and of Mikolas’ strong results in 2022. The $20MM AAV on the deal is comparable to that of fellow mid- or even late-30s veterans like Chris Bassitt ($21MM) and Charlie Morton ($20MM).
The new contract covers Mikolas’ age-35 and age-36 seasons. He’ll have the opportunity to return to the market in advance of his age-37 season, and as pitchers like Morton and Zack Greinke have illustrated in recent years, there’s still ample earning power for non-ace pitchers at that juncture of a career so long as they remain healthy.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported the Cardinals and Mikolas had agreed to an extension. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported it was worth $40MM over two years, as well as the salary structure. The Associated Press reported the bonus was to be paid by July 1 and the presence of award bonuses.
*** Coming off one of “his” finest seasons … ***
**** Coming off one of “his” finest seasons ****
Can you type this once more? I’m not sure three times was enough…
Woahhhh too much $$
Going rate for a decent starting pitcher these days. Might as well get used to it.
Market rate for his level of performance and durability is higher. This is a club-friendly deal.
And a 2-time All-Star like Mikolas is quite a bit better than just decent. I actually think the Cardinals got a small bargain over what he’d get on next offseason’s open market.
Yea, but he’s only had one good year in the past 3. I like the deal though, the market rate for only a 2 year commitment sounds about right based on his track record.
Savvy. Bet the bonus and pay bump this was to get extension to two years. Pretty straight compromise.
Can use the bonus to start a mustache lifestyle brand,
He’s only pitched in 4 seasons. 2 of those were really good. One of them he led NL in wins. And 3 of those seasons he started over 30 games.
Bargain for Cardinals. Did you see what starting pitching cost this year? Like most things I don’t see the cost going down.
His first contract extension was terrible and only salvaged it last year. Give him another deal!!
As you said, he salvaged it last year, so it wasn’t terrible after all, especially if he pitches well again this year in what is still the final season of that extension.
Even if he regresses, a low 4 era and nearly 200 innings is worth 20m a year.
No it’s not, that about league avg.
This guy eats lizards
No, this guy eats innings. 202 last season and got beat so many times last year 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, etc. No run support on several outings
He eats both innings and lizards.
$20M per year is a lot of money for Mikolas. If they are willing to pay him that, how much is Jordan Montgomery going to ask for? While it’s good for St. Louis to start signing starters for 2024 & beyond, this seems like an overpay to me.
It’s market rate (or below) for pitchers of his caliber.
It’s because of the length of the deal. If Mikolas has a good season, he probably could have gotten at least a three year deal in free agency, and possibly more years than that. Dependable starting pitching has become very expensive recently, making this deal look like a possible bargain if anything.
It’s market value or under for a starter his age and talent level. Montgomery wasn’t as good as Mikolas last year but he’s younger so he’ll likely sign a longer deal of similar yearly value.
Ya’ll are taking his innings for granted. He was 3 in MLB with 203 IP last year. Not too many guys can give that many quality innings these days
…and to pitch that many innings with an ERA under 3.50 and a minuscule WHIP is even rarer.
Have you been in a coma the last few years? Bassitt is about as good a comp as you’ll find for Mikolas, and he just got a little higher AAV along with an extra year. This is below market value for Mikolas.
I’ve been waiting about 30 years for my Pirates to overtake the Cardinals. I have no doubt Mikolas will take the baton from Waino and continue to pitch circles around Pirates hitters.
I hate Cardinals Devil Magic!
Might be waiting for awhile. They have a better market and a owner willing to spend more. Only way pirates catch them is if they get a much weaker front office.
You never know if they manage to build up a good collection of young stars again like they did from 2013-15. Don’t forget that the Pirates only finished 2 games back in 2015 when the Cardinals won 100 games.
The Pirates are still deep in rebuilding mode for now, though.
Oh they could have more wins for a year or 2. 2025-2030 looks promising for that. Was taking it as he meant the Pirates being the dominant team in the division. But I would bet the pirates win more games some season in the next 10.
Those were the days.
Wtf??? This makes Martin Perez seem cheap. Trust me, that’s hard to do.
How so when Mikolas is a better pitcher than Perez?
Yes, Perez had an excellent year last year, but that came out of nowhere, and nobody expects him to repeat it at age 32. He’s only had one other decent year in his career a decade ago and has otherwise been mediocre or worse throughout his career.
At least Mikolas has had two great years and one decent year in his three healthy seasons since returning from Japan.
1 more year, though
I don’t think it’s a horrible deal, the difference between the Perez and Mikolas deals are Miles has spent a good deal of time on the DL in the semi recent past (although prior injuries don’t mean future injuries.) I do think the Mikolas deals has a little more upside however. Mikolas has had more better seasons then Perez. That being said I don’t think the Perez deal is bad either, it’s a one year gamble and he is coming off his best season, maybe he figured something out
I’m happy he’s been extended for two years. I’m not sure they can extend Montgomery. He’s going to want more money and years.
They should slap a QO on Monty after the season provided he stayed healthy. Pitching has been going way up in price lately and he’ll likely reject it.
He will get a qo for sure.
Same with Jack.
Jack needs to pitch better than he has recently to get a QO.
Which could very well happen, but Flaherty needs to prove it first. Luckily, QO offers aren’t due a season in advance.
Good signing. Not too long. 16m/yr is reasonable.
@baseballpun – $16M is his current salary. His extension is for 2 years, $40M, starting on his age 35 season. Plus he can earn incentives on top of the guaranteed $20M/yr. Sure he had a very good season last year, pitching over 200 innings along the way but with such a low strikeout rate, one of these two seasons (if not both) could get ugly if his team defense takes a step back. Also, the new ban on shifting is going to impact pitchers like Mikolas much more than it will flame-throwing, higher K/ fly ball pitchers. Don’t get me wrong, I do like Mikolas and he sounds like a great teammate, but this is a lot of money to pay a pitcher with his profile and skill set. St. Louis rarely overpays players but it certainly feels like they did here. Best of luck to Mikolas & St. Louis, I hope it works out for them.
Did you see what FA pitchers were going for this offseason?
Technically, he is getting $16M/year over the two year extension. The Cardinals are giving the rest of it to him a year early.
Also, pitchers are perfectly able to succeed without a high K rate as long as they do a good job limiting walks, homers, and other hard contact, even without an elite defense., That is exactly what Mikolas does. The Cardinals’ defense is just a nice bonus on top of that. Meanwhile, limiting the shifts may hurt him a little but not that badly.
Yeah, the $16M/yr is just “voodoo economics” with the signing bonus & bump in his 2023 salary. The only way the cash salaries of $16M in 2024 & 2025 will be of benefit to St. Louis is if they decide to trade him. By increasing his salary this year by $3M, he’s going to count around $19M/yr against the CBT for 2023-2025. I really do like him but even with the crazy deals signed this past offseason, not many teams signed pitchers to $20M+ deals starting at their age 35 season. That amount of money for his age is the biggest concern here (at least for me), but maybe he’ll prove me wrong. I guess it’s not much different than Atlanta paying Charlie Morton $20M for one more year at his age 38? season. I hope it works out for them, but it makes their other FA pitchers much more expensive to re-sign.
Dunno about impact on other pitcher signings. This only really replaces the Waino 2023 salary and they have a ton of cost controlled hitters for the next few years, some of whom may be really good. Still room for 1 or 2 more significant pitcher contracts at 20-25 AAV (and the Cards will never go full DeGrom/Verlander anyway)
Mantooth
The $ amount as it applies to the CBT is irrelevant to the Cardinals. They are never going to approach the cap anyway.
This was smart, smart spending. Mo said at the beginning of the offseason the team had the ability to increase payroll. The wild nature of this years’ market discouraged them from signing free agents, but the money was still available. So they front loaded this contract to get the length they wanted and save actual cash going forward. Mo gets an A+ for this move.
Scherzer? I was surprised he got more than 26 million AAV. It’s probably better for the Cards to have guys like Goldschmidt and Arenado instead of focusing on just 1 pitcher.
I’d say based on current contracts and recent success and age, this is reasonable and fair contract for both sides as we sit here on 3/24/23.
That said, and not picking on Mikolas in particular here, but I see he has a very high ground ball rate as part of his success – offsetting a poor strikeout rate.
I have heard a lot of discussion about how the new rules may add as many as 10 points to a left handed batter but nothing about how pitchers may be affected. For Mikolas, losing the shift could be a problem on that ground ball rate?
Would love to hear any info / discussion on the topic.
His groundball rate was 45.5% last year. That’s not all that hign for a starting pitcher.
On any other team maybe…the Cardinals infield defense posted something like 30 runs above average on ground balls last year though. I wouldn’t worry about it much. The shift took some hits away but it gave up some too. Most of the statistical models show the impact won’t be as great as the talking heads seem to think it will be.
I think the lack of shift will (more) impact line drives to RF, which were being snagged unassisted or turned into 4-3 putouts. I don’t think ground balls will be as big a difference maker as some believe.
It depends on how many teams still shift the outfield. That’s not in the new rules.
This is a great signing for the Cardinals. He could have gotten a Chris Bassitt contract (or better) on the free agent market, if he has another good season this year. I felt like he was the most likely to sign an extension out of all their pending free agent starting pitchers, as he seems to like being a Card. Solid move for a team that has most of their starting rotation potentially departing after this year.
This was a necessity. Would love to see Montgomery extended too, but that one is going to prove to be much more difficult.
WIth Matz under contract and Liberatore in waiting, I think it’s pretty unlikely they even attempt to extend Montgomery. I don’t think they’ll go with three LHP in the rotation next year.
I was thinking an extension with him would look like either 60 over 3 or 75 over 4. This is a nice team friendly deal for a guy who would have had no issues clearing 4 years on the open market.
Mikolas has made 32 starts in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s pitched for the Cardinals, seems pretty durable to me
One winning season during his cardinal imprisonment. That staff will be a mess for years.
He had two years ruined by injuries, and you shouldn’t be judging by W/L record in the first place. He was a well deserving All-Star last year despite finishing 12/13.
I agree 100% on not judging pitchers by their W-L record. Jacob deGrom won Cy Young awards in 2018 & 2019 with W-L records of 10-9 and 11-8. Win/Loss records for pitchers really don’t mean a whole lot in baseball anymore.
When I was very young, it was rare that a pitcher was even considered for a Cy Young award if he had less than 18-20 wins. I’m glad they changed their view on that.
@dorothy iirc grenkie won a cy in kc with a losing record too early in his career
And everyone knows pitchers are less susceptible to injuries as they age. Should have extended him into his 40s with that Benjamin Button arm.
I will agree w/l is not an accurate judgment of a pitcher. That being said it shouldn’t be dismissed unless playing for the A’s, Pirates, etc.
He’ll wind up being dead money just like Carpenter, Fowler were and Delong currently is.
Imprisonment? Sign me up. They’re going to the playoffs almost by default and have an elite infield. And he’s going to play in front of 3+ Million fans this year at home.
While spending the summer in the slum that is St. Louis, Missouri.
I agree that St. Louis is a slum place to live, but they have the 2nd most World Series championships in MLB history, next to the Yankees. I would play there knowing they have a shot at contending for a championship. Nobody said the players have to live there during or after the season.
Ballplayers don’t live in the slum, dog. They’re millionaires.
But not slum dog millionaires.
That’s a pretty ignorant comment. I lived in St. Louis for several years and it’s a good city with plenty of positive reasons to live there. The Cardinals being one of those.
Every city that has a MLB team has things that you can point to as negatives and positives. If you’re just an anti-city person maybe you should pick another sport to be interested in.
No it isn’t. I’ve lived in some of the finest cities the world has (including but not limited to) NYC, LA, Chicago, Miami and London. St. Louis is a small minded, Jean short wearing, potbellied, uncultured, gun toting, conservative Christian redneck boring town with a dialect problem.
A+ extension. Don’t see how Cardinals could have got him cheaper. NL central the best smartest ran division. Reds are doing well with development and recently improved their trades. Just don’t make anymore awful signings. Cubs Pirates need to step up their development but have improved. They have been destroying teams in trades. Cards Brewers have no glaring weakness.
The Padres could have signed Mikolas for $14M per year next offseason. It just would have required a 6 year deal at that rate ;-).
@yourdreamgm
the brew and cards do have weaknesses for my birds is the rotation and depth. while i like our rotation it’s a little thin and at this point which jack is going to show up this year cy young jack or il bp jack. the brewers big weakness is there offense and didn’t really improve it much, and just like jack which yelich is going to show up for the brew, mvp yeli or il yeli
Think the issue is more height than depth. Woodford Hudson Liberatore looks ok to me as 6-8 (maybe add Thompson as 9)
Issue more the lack of number 1 and 2s
@Dorothy_Mantooth Padres would give him a opt out as well so they would have to pay him twice as much.
@brodie-bruce I was talking about the front office. The Yelich extension was awful like I said it was going to be but most the time those 2 teams make good trades, develop players, draft etc well.
I haven’t paid attention to the cards well enough but every contender should have 3 playoff starters, a solid 4 and a solid 5 and a long man who could start for a few weeks or 2 upside guys to compete for the 5. With 2 guys in AAA ready for a mlb look.
Adding impact bats is expensive. Brewers are at the max of what they are willing to spend. Not much they could have done and I am ok with what they did. Without spending $ or losing prospects they desperately need they couldn’t improve.
Baseball Reference has the $$$
details a little differently…..
@Robbly – A case can be made that St. Louis has more than (1) #2 starters. They might be on the lower end of that ranking but I could see Wainwright, Mikolas and even Montgomery serving as a #2 starter for 10+ MLB clubs. At worst, they are high end #3 starters which gives them an advantage over their opponents when they are facing those teams’ #3, #4 and #5 starters.
The wild card here of course is Jack Flaherty. If he can somehow get healthy, he’ll be their undisputed #1 starter and make this staff much better. St. Louis could also use a breakout season from one of their young pitchers like Liberatore. If Flaherty can start 24+ games and they develop a young starter or two, this staff has a chance to be great this season.
Completely. Much bitching at VEB about having an army of 3s but as you say Montgomery and Mikolas are 2/3s and Flaherty could be anything. Most of us think Waino is the weak link pitching FBs at 87mph but hey legacy matters in St Louis. Matz is looking good when healthy but therein lies the risk.
Waiting in hope on Tink Hence. First high end potential starter since Flaherty. And Hjerpe could be anything.
We’ve gotten so entitled in Redbird country that everyone is bitching we have no aces WHEN we make the playoffs not IF. Pittsburgh and Oakland fans should be so lucky.
Lucky to always travel in hope. And the lineup is nice this year, should be fun.
P*rm statch has pitched very well when healthy.
Tink Hence is looking like front line rotation material? Surprised there is no mention of him as well?
I’ll be there April 3rd!
Lizard king has pitched very well when healthy.
Tink Hence is looking like front line rotation material? Surprised there is no mention of him as well?
I’ll be there April 3rd!
Opa!
If only Ken Rudolph was around to catch him, jolly old Saint Mikolas would sleigh everyone.
How many miles per dollar on that contract?
The good news is that St Louis is finally done with albert pujols’ sorry ass.
Guy gives innings and a chance to win most games he pitches. Probably could get 15%+ if he was willing to test the market. Redbirds trying to minimize the heavy lifting that will be required next offseason.