We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500
When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444
Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.
Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453
Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.
Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.
Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA
Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).
Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603
With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.
Three More
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.
River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.
Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Hoping River Ryan makes it big just so some day I can see “A River Ryans threw it” as a headline
Under Barber the Phillies farm system has improved greatly
We gotta get Steer Burger with Mayo and Fry and Colas on the same roster.
this is the single greatest comment i have read on this website
Don’t forget Garlick
I also forgot Seth Beer
please, lettuce stop with this nonsense
York peppermint patty for desert
That Salas update is great for Padres fans. Would be cool if he can stay on this pace. While that’s really impressive progress offensively for any prospect I’m wondering if the defense side is progressing as quickly. Catcher is a uniquely difficult position after all and there’s a reason catching prospects can take longer to reach the show.
salas will have been catching in an MLB organization since he was 16, and reports say athleticism might remain well into his 20s. catcher is quite a unique position, with guys like melendez and davis coming up as catchers before switching positions, and guys like keibert ruiz and francisco alvarez being handed reigns as catchers with fringy defense. but if salas is athletic enough and smart enough with his body, he could go up a level a year starting in two years and be within a shout of the majors at 22, and the hope is that the bat pushes that timeline. one thing against most catching prospects is time and salas has plenty of that
Salas skipped rookie ball entirely to go directly to full season ball in Lake Elsinore and will be in High A by the end of this season. Possibly as soon as Friday when the Midwest league resumes play.
He will likely start 2024 in Ft Wayne before moving to AA mid-season, but it would not surprise me in the least if he starts 2024 in AA.
In 2025 he should get a big league ST invite and start the season in AA or AAA. There is no reason that he should not be on the Padres roster in 2026 at age 19. He will not spend 5 seasons in the minors before his first call up.
Thanks for the input y’all. If he keeps hitting like this a Melendez-like multi-position role seems very viable if any catching ability questions arise. The comparison to Henry Davis is interesting here. Seems like davis’ receiving skills have been questioned for a while now but his arm and athleticism not so much so the pirates trying him in right seems like a worthwhile experiment with his bat.
Not that I have specific reason to doubt Salas’ ability to stick at catcher defensively, or his physical tools and aptitude, these just seem like missing elements in these write-ups. It would be tremendous to see a teenager playing a good defensive catcher, mashing and handling a pitching staff in mlb so I hope he pans out. Way I see it, that kind of baseball prodigy doesn’t come along every day and it’s exciting and interesting for any fan of the game imo. That being said, I would also wonder how pitchers might react to working with such a young catcher. Hopefully it wouldn’t be an issue and he’d get a fair shake but people are people so who knows.
Here are his scouting grades and some quotes that were written before he played a single game of pro ball or even arrived at the Padres facility in Arizona.
mlb.com/prospects/padres/ethan-salas-806956
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55 Those will undoubtedly be higher in a few areas when they release their mid-season rankings in a few days..
What they wrote about him: “… the 16-year-old, who could be a rare five-tool catcher”.
“The Padres have had Salas work with Major Leaguers — including Yu Darvish — in early bullpens because his receiving, blocking, hands, communication skills and overall movement behind the plate are already so advanced. His ability to pop out of the crouch and utilize impressive arm strength should also help him limit the running game. Salas also runs well for a catcher, and even if he slows as he ages, the rest of his game is so well-rounded that he could be the face of the next catching generation.”
Thanks! That’s a really exciting report. Gives jt realmuto-esque vibes. The Padres aren’t my primary team but I have a strong connection to them because they were my late grandpa’s team from the birth of the franchise and I remember going to games with him during the Gwynn era. Always like to see them do well.
Mayo is the guy to trade. Get some help in the bullpen if they aren’t going to get a guy opponents will fear in October. Bednar available? That’d take more than Mayo. Have no clue what to think this deadline for the Orioles
There is no way they would trade a talent like Mayo for a reliever. Perhaps in a package for a top caliber SP, however.
The package for any starter worthwhile would be more than Mayo, which the Orioles won’t do. That’s my thinking at least. Bednar has 3.5 years I think. He is a reliever, but imagine Baustista, Cano, Bednar!
Doubt that. Mayo would be a chip for a Dylan Cease or the like. Can’t see us doing that for a reliever. I would imagine Elias and Sig are scouting out the next Yennier Cano gem.
Would Mayo, Ortiz, Hall and 2 25-30 range guys do it? I’m not well versed on prospect value. To me, the Sox don’t take that. I’m thinking Kjerstad and Mayo get a cease type guy. But again, I’m probably way off
That’d actually be a somewhat reasonable package for Cease, but even still I don’t know if Elias would pull the trigger on it.
I believe Mayo is staying put for the 1B job that’s gonna be available soon.
6’5″ 230, nice reflexes, he’s an AI created player for the position.
Unless an ace becomes available.
Lavender & Musk
Love seeing Ryan get some love.
As a right handed starter, Hence is too short to be a starter. His ceiling is max effort late inning relief with a high strike out rate. Maybe spends a few years as a closer.
Rather prejudiced standpoint for you to take against him and not a very well veiled attempt either.
You can tell by the screen name what way he/she/they sway
So it would be different if he was left handed? Either way I think it’s short sighted.
Stroman is 6 inches shorter and he has had a great career as a starter in MLB. Why would a guy at 6’1″ be too short.
The lack of control bothers me way more than his stature.
Thats a valid reason to be concerned. His height isn’t
Yes, his height is, if anything, a plus. His fastball is shaped such that it’s more effective coming from a smaller frame. The concerns are command and durability.
Spencer Strider agrees w/you Brad.
Roy Oswalt says hi, but what you described is simply his prospect floor.
Mayo , Ortiz , Cowser for Ohtani ?
Could the Angels say no ?
Toss in or exchange Grayson maybe.
O’s be WS favourite if that goes down imo
Ohtani and later Means , you got Wells Bradish et al
Lineup and bench be really deep now
No one has as deep a pool of A prospects as O’s.
Could give up a few and still have the best prospect list lol
No guts no glory
That’s an interesting package. I’d love to see how the market would evolve in a bidding war. It’s basically asking what would a contending team give up for both Judge and Cole if they were free agents.
Hoping Os POBO Elias builds a roster similar to how the Braves are doing it. Looks like Atlanta’s general strategy is to sign a lot of players to long term deals and keeping everyone’s earnings within a range. Bringing in an alpha stud at a huge salary, to me, doesn’t fit their model. Besides, IMO, Os owner has to look no further than the Chris Davis debacle to stay away from such a deal!
That would have been a smart trade last year, but now Ohtani has 2-3 months left on his contract and that would be way too much for a loaner. No reason to trade that much for a guy that has a 0% chance of re-signing in Baltimore.
Cease would make the most sense to me with Hall Ortiz and Mayo package.
This is slightly off topic, but when will they update various top 100 prospect lists at MLB.com, ESPN, Fangrpahs, etc? How about MLB.com’s team top 30 lists? I’m looking forward to seeing Kiley’s 9th place ranking for Langford. Having 2 top 10 guys on even 1 list is thrilling!
For fangraphs, they already tell you where the top guys will slot on the top 100 prospects list. Go to the mlb draft section of the board and you’ll see Crews, Langford, Skenes, Clark, Jenkins, Waldrep will slot in at 8, 21, 39, 69, 81 and 97 respectively
For MLB.com they do it after the draft, so its coming soon.
MLB.com was updated not that long ago. Should get an update at or by the end of when the draftees sign.
We live in OC so when we are interested in seeing A ball we go see California League teams in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Because of that we have gotten to see Salas play multiple times this season.
While he is just 17, he is a man amongst boys in terms of his level of play. Salas is simply incredible. He will probably be playing in high A in the next few weeks. He is that good.
Left field – thanks for that eyes on update. I was fortunate enough to see his Padres debut in spring training and I saw him against mainly mlb talent and he simply looked like he belonged. It seems as if this guy has a professional mindset like maybe no one could even hope for at his young age.
Someone above suggest he would be “within a shout of mlb by 22”. I’m thinking 19 he is in Peoria for ST getting a shot (ala Tatis) if he earns it. If not he is at AAA at 19 to start season. That would be the start of the 26 season which I think tracks what was said in the post. Campy’s next 8-9 months could have an impact as well. If he flops or becomes an all star as originally his prospect rating suggested.
A lot to like but just have to see.
YW! We love baseball and Cal league games are fun. From seeing him play I would say you are probably right.
I was told by people on here the padres farm system is trash. Yet merrill, Salas, lesko, snelling and Zavala are all primed to be top prospects.
Say what you want about preller but the dude finds young talent. They also have the number 1 or two top international prospect committed to them the next signing period.
Simm, Add Mazur and Iriarte to your list. I would not be at all surprised if the Padres have 7 guys on the Top 100 at the end of the season.
Leo DeVries is the SS prospect out of the Dominican you mentioned. He is already sporting Padres gear on his Instagram. He is a consensus top 2 pick in international free agency in Jan 2024.
What name expensive veteran player(s) that have nice stats and superstar salaries but won’t help the Padres win will they trade Ethan Salas and Jackson Merrill for?
Ohtani and Trout?
Samuel – agree….Bogaerts was a free agent, but SD can not help themself! Bogaerts age 30 to 41 years for $280,000,000, lol. Him like many of their trades and acquisitions simply do not fit together. Their win now with veterans on the down hill side of 30 will keep them at 0 World Series Champions instead of building through the farm system and supplementing with free agents.
“They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.”
This is not true because they don’t “have” to trade anybody. Mayo’s not in the 2023 picture. And there are plenty of options to move instead of him.
Mayo’s 2022 season and breakout into 2023 has put him nearly untouchable from a market perspective. I’ve seen models that put him as the #2 prospect in the game (behind Holliday). And it wouldn’t shock me to see him be a top 20 guy in nearly all mid/end of 2023 season rankings. We can pretend Elias has the same mentality as other GMs in playing for a ‘window’ and willing to tweak at the edges. But that’s not his plan. He clearly values key prospects more than the market. And he’s got a miser owner. The future is built around the success/failure of their top prospects (from Adley down). And they are on the path to simply outscore their opponents.
Salas could strap on the tools of ignorance in SD today and wouldn’t be any worse than Nola with the bat. He is going to have a bit of a learning curve with calling games as he goes up the ladder, but he is the real deal. I don’t doubt one bit that he will make the majors by his age 19 season.
Markevian “Tink” Hence. Darn good baseball name.