This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.
One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.
The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.
Rental Players
Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.
The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.
The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.
Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.
The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.
Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.
Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year
Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.
Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.
Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.
He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.
Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.
Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.
Longer-Term Players
Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.
He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.
Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.
Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.
Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.
Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.
Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.
His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.
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The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.
Lane Thomas not going to the ASG is absolutely ridiculous. I don’t like the Nats but this dude is a gamer.
Agreed. Idk if the Nats expected this from him when they got him for Lester, but they have so many OFs in their system, I feel like now is the best time to trade him for max returns.
maybe trade him back to the Cardinals
Lane Thomas is the only player on that list who warrants any trade interest.
Candelerio & Edwards will likely go on the basis that they’re rentals
As a Cardinal fan, a cautionary hard pass on Lane Thomas. He was great for a bit with the Cardinals, then looked helpless at the plate for a season and a half. He is a prince now, but he can turn back into a pumpkin at any moment.
That’s why they need to trade him now, I believe. I’m sensing a .240 Batting Average and a .680 OPS for 2024 for him.
St. Louis gave him 142 plate appearances in three seasons. Washington gave him more than that between the Lester trade and the end of that season.
By the end of THIS season, Thomas will have come to the plate 10 times more as a Nat than as a red bird.
If he was going to have the regression you’re talking about, he could have had it, and recovered from it, several times by now.
TL;DR, St. Louis needs him back! Send your offers.
Thomas is under team control for a few more years and Mozeliak did say he wants to look towards 2024 at this point. The only downside for Lane Thomas is his defense (which I previously thought was good, but I guess not), so if St Louis wants to sacrifice that for more offense, then it’s a good fit.
Not sure who the Cardinals would trade though. The Nats’ farm system is loaded with outfielders and hitting at the moment, so I feel they would likely want starting pitching in return.
In 2024, when the Nats will be about $140M below the luxury tax with James Wood and Dylan Crews in the lineup and Cade Cavalli in the rotation, this story’s inference that Washington will spend as many as six years in the NL East cellar is going to make your belly shake like jelly.
Might be even lower if they can talk Strasburg into just hanging them up…even though that’s pretty unlikely.
They’ll have to activate him from his state of suspended animation to try to talk him into retirement. It’s been about 2 months since team doctors ordered him to suspend all physical activity.
solaris…use of suspended animation deserves many upvotes……
Somewhere, Stan Lee is giving the thumbs up.
You might have inferred “as many as six years in the NL East cellar,” but I don’t think the article implied it.
And there’s zero chance the Nats “can talk Strasburg into just hanging them up,” not with well over $100M still owed him.
The article said Joey Meneses “will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again”
The tear down started in 2021 with Turner and Scherzer.
Meneses will hit age 35, the last year of his mid-thirties, in 2027.
So, a clear inference that this is a cellar dweller for as many as six years.
Mid-30s could mean 33 and/or they could be using today as the starting point.
Either way, the article would be implying it, not inferring it. The latter is up to the reader.
I’d buy on Victor Robles if I were the Padres.
Career .266/.357/.379 against lefties. Could play center field against lefties instead of Grisham and could be a late game defensive sub move Soto to DH late in games.
I’d also buy on Jeimer Candelario and put him at 1st. Move cronenworth back to 2B and put Kim in a super utility role – 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF. Move him around primarily 3B SS to give Manny and Bogaerts time off at DH.
@Math&Baseball
I wish the Jays would have bought in on Robles in the off season. Watching Keirmaier and especially Varsho bat against LHP is starting to be painful.
Xander has been pretty bad since the first month, might could use a day off.
He’s been playing through a wrist injury. Probably should have surgery on it but he’s trying to live up to the contract and not disappoint the fans.
Padres should sell high on Snell Wacha Lugo Martinez and Hader as pitching is always at a premium during trade deadline. Do some light buying on guys like Candelerio and Robles plus some pen rentals, a retool not a rebuild. Let Bogaerts get surgery if he needs it and shoot for 2024. Machado has also missed time due to injury.
Can always resign guys like Snell Wacha Lugo etc in the off season.
Ideally you get some guys ready to contribute right away or ready to contribute in 2024 for Snell wacha Lugo hader Martinez, even if you do some package deals.
Why would they put the clearly superior player in Kim into a super-utility role and let the inferior Cronenworth stay at second?
Bogaerts and Machado have both dealt with injuries. Given Kim’s defensive prowess it’d make more sense to have him at SS and 3B more often to help with wear and tear on them than cronenworth. Carpenter hasn’t done much as a DH for them so giving Machado and Bogaerts DH at bats isn’t the worst idea.
It’d also make more sense to rotate him around the diamond 3B, SS, 2B and in the OF knowing his defense is his calling card.
Chris Taylor was a great super utility player for the dodgers for years.
Super utility role isn’t a knock on Kim. Given the injuries this year he’s more useful as a super utility player than just playing 2B. Esp if padres pursue a 1B rental upgrade.
To be more precise
Kim could start 2 games at 3B let Machado DH those games. Then move somewhere else. If they face a lefty they could try Kim in RF and Tatis in CF.
Another series Kim starts at SS let Bogaerts DH those games. Then move somewhere else depending on match up or who needs a day off.
There’s plenty of ways to keep Kim in the lineup and utilize his defense.
Scott Boras won’t let any of his clients retire, until they have collected every last penny, whether they earn it or not. Why else do you think Anthony Rendon is still playing, even though he’s gone on record about not really liking baseball.
He has not wwnt on record about not liking to play baseball, he went on record saying he did not enjoy watching it. There is a huge difference.
The more interesting question than who the Nats could trade is what any of these players might be worth. Everyone knows the Nats are rebuilding and not competitive this year. Basically all of the players listed were castoffs a year ago; have things changed enough for any of them to make a trade worthwhile for the Nats?
Signing with the Nats has give Candelario, at the very least a shot at redemption. Last year was awful, but the two previous were solid. Hopefully that is the real player and the Nats can realize a return. Similar deal on Harvey – he was on the scrap heap and has now shown value over a reasonable sample size. But as a reliever his performance can be volatile.
Candelario and Williams are the two most likely to be dealt.
IMO, Meneses could be a surprise flip. The Padres are bearing a lot of bad contracts and the Yankee need outfield offense badly. Both could use a cheap bat like Meneses and he might have surprising value at the deadline.
If he pirates were to make a soft push for now and near future Going after a Lane Thomas would be a great route. Would probably take way to much talent to make it happen but sending back Johnson as the primary piece would be acceptable.
wouldn’t mind seeing Meneses either. Should cost less in talent but still possibly more then Ben is willing to give up.
I doubt either are moving though.
The Mets can use Lane Thomas, Trevor Williams or any of the relief pitchers mentioned
Thomas will cost too much. Edwards is the only reliever worth taking for any team. Mets won’t likely be buying.
I’d still be willing to take a flyer on Robles, he has a lot of the tools a modern club needs. Orioles should straight swap one of their 8 prospects in the top 100. Of course it’d be 7 or 8. He had something people seen and lost a little. I’d go for it because he’s been there and still only 27
Why on God’s green earth would the Orioles want Victor the Disappointment Robles? They have four outfielder already on the big league club who run circles around that guy, a few more in the minors percolating and they just drafted a center fielder with their first pick yesterday.
Yeah, nobody’s trading a top-100 prospect for Victor Robles. This is as bad as sports talk radio.
Since the Nationals moved from Montreal to DC after the 2004 season they have traded with 28 teams. Guess what team they haven’t traded with-you guessed it the Baltimore Orioles. As long as the Angelos family owns the Orioles doubt that will change
If you’re trading for Trevor Williams, you aren’t considering enough of your alternative options.
You might be discounting his value. Williams gives a reliable 5 innings per start, which will have value to any contender looking to rest their front line arms for the playoffs.
Williams was signed as a reclamation project. Whatever the Nats can flip him for is a bonus.
less than that, he was signed to eat innings on a rebuilding club. whatever he would bring in a trade would have to be worth more than developmental innings of one of their young pitchers. i agree that he is not very likely to move, because they signed him to the deal that they will need him for.
Corbin, LMAO.
People will laugh and groan, but I would trade Willson Contreras for Patrick Corbin and a sweetener. Corbin could eat innings the rest of this season after Flaherty and Monty are traded. Depending on the results he could do the same next season so we wouldn’t have to rush any young pitchers to the Show. If he had to be cut loose, it would just be considered the cost of unloading Contreras’ contract.
Contreras could play 1B for the Nats. He would be a much better hitter than Dom Smith and he is athletic enough to learn to play a decent 1B.
35 million next year. Unbelievable…
I’d still do it. Totally serious. Short term pain over long term disability. That’s how I see it. I know it’s outside of what every front office in MLB would do. They would all wait, and hope Contreras reverts to his career averages offensively. He probably will, but that’s not enough. He’s not a viable ML catcher. He can’t hit enough to overcome that fact. The Cubs knew it. The Astros knew it. Mo was the last to arrive at that conclusion. Now they are stuck for four more years at a vital position with two better options sitting on the bench. Just eat the money or get used to losing. Those are the two choices.
For everyone wishing for Robles on your team, be careful what you wish for. Tons of boneheaded fielding and base running gaffes. Seen it for years. Great fielder, when his head is in the game.
Trade deadline lol. Make trades sooner to better your teams… geez
Out of all the players Hunter Harvey isn’t going anywhere due to the fact he can barely stay healthy. Candelario and Edwards will likely get traded.
I will sign candy a 4/50M years extension the players like him and respect his leadership especially the youngest infield