The Mets’ retool was one of the defining stories of the trade deadline. While it became clear in the weeks approaching August 1 that rentals like Tommy Pham and David Robertson would be on the move, New York’s course of action with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander remained a mystery until the weekend before the deadline.
In the wake of trading the future Hall of Famers to AL West rivals, Mets’ brass indicated they were prepared to take a step back in 2024 while focusing on the longer-term future. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed his hope the club will be competitive next year but forecast a quieter offseason than the franchise has had in the past two winters.
The club’s less certain intentions for ’24 have raised some questions about Pete Alonso’s future. The three-time All-Star has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Even if the Mets aren’t rebuilding, there’s an argument for them to pick a clear direction regarding Alonso — either by trading him to a clearer contender or working to get an extension wrapped up.
[Related: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?]
Last week, the New York Post’s Mike Puma wrote the Mets had floated Alonso’s name in trade talks prior to the deadline. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic shines some light on those discussions, reporting that the Brewers and Cubs were among the teams in contact with New York brass. Rosenthal suggests talks between the Mets and Milwaukee had more traction than conversations with the Cubs, though it isn’t clear how close New York got to a deal with any team.
Asked about Rosenthal’s report following the Mets’ loss in Atlanta tonight, Alonso reiterated to reporters that he “(loves) being a Met (and) representing the city of New York” (via Tim Healey of Newsday). The star slugger unsurprisingly didn’t provide specifics about the chances of an extension, noting he “(doesn’t) know what the future holds.”
If the Mets were to seriously consider moving him next offseason, Alonso would quite likely be the best hitter on the trade market. He’s one homer away from reaching 40 for the third time in his four 162-game seasons (and was on a similar pace during the shortened schedule). Alonso’s .224 average and .325 on-base percentage are narrowly career-low marks, though it’s possible his rate production was deflated by injury.
He sprained his left wrist on a hit-by-pitch in June, an injury that was initially expected to cost him three or four weeks. Instead, Alonso returned within 10 days. He hit just .155/.277/.366 between his return and the All-Star Break. Since the Midsummer Classic, he has a characteristically excellent .262/.359/.623 batting line.
Alonso is playing this season on a $14.5MM salary. That figure could push north of $20MM for his final arbitration season. That’s a notable sum but still below market value for an impact bat of Alonso’s ilk. The one year of remaining control would likely prevent the Mets from recouping a Top 50-caliber prospect in a trade, but there’d still be plenty of interest around the league.
Last winter, the Blue Jays shipped Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners before his final arbitration season. Hernández was a bit cheaper than Alonso will be — he eventually lost his hearing and is making $14MM — but wasn’t quite as good a hitter. Over the three seasons preceding the trade, Hernández hit .283/.333/.519. Alonso owns a .256/.341/.523 line going back to 2021 while playing his home games at a more pitcher-friendly environment.
It stands to reason the Mets would look to top the Jays’ return for Hernández. Seattle sent three seasons of club control over an above-average reliever (Erik Swanson) and a minor league pitcher (Adam Macko) whom Baseball America ranked the #10 prospect in the Toronto system after the trade. If another team acquires Alonso over the offseason, they’d be able to make a qualifying offer the following winter to partially backfill some of the prospect value they surrendered.
Each of Milwaukee and Chicago could check back in with the Mets about Alonso’s availability, though they certainly wouldn’t be the only teams with interest. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana to man first base down the stretch. He’s an impending free agent, while Rowdy Tellez seems likely to be non-tendered.
The Cubs have used Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario — both of whom are impending free agents — at first base since the deadline. They already parted ways with Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini earlier in the year. Prospect Matt Mervis is having an excellent season in Triple-A but scuffled in a 25-game MLB debut this summer. Even if the Cubs consider Mervis a likely everyday player going into ’24, they could certainly kick him over to designated hitter to accommodate a player of Alonso’s caliber.
Sorry Mets – the Brewers were never going to move Chourio.
I’d trade Alonso only if I was getting an offer I couldn’t refuse. This would mean guys like Ethan Salas, Jackson Holiday, or Jackson Chourio would have to be put on the table. If the opposing teams don’t want to offer top tier prospects then thats fine, we don’t have to trade him. In the offseason then they can extend him if no trade works out. Knowing Eppler, he’ll trade Alonso for a combination of Darin Ruf, Deivi Garcia, and a bag of chips. Worst GM in the game
In spite of the fact that Pete insists he’s going to one day be a great defender, the value he provides is still a bit one-dimensional.
The same could be said for LFGMets. In spite of all the earnestness in the world, their only value is comedic, and it’s helped dramatically because he’s actually serious about all of it.
Ex: The article above makes a really great comp for what the Mets could likely get. He’s like “f-that, he’s worth the best prospect in the world! Seriously guys.”
Hey Raisinsss, per The Fielding Bible, Pete is tied for 4th in MLB among first basemen for DRS. fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
raisinsss: First of all, I hope your wife is OK. Power hitters tend to have lower averages, something in the .250 range. But I’d take a hitter like Alonso any day of the week. The Sox had a similar player in Jake Burger. He hit 25 Burger Bombs and is controls Le through 2025. Another idiotic move by the Sox’ front office. Alonso says he’s working on his defense. Time will tell. I hate the cubs but I give them credit for signing a player like Swanson. If Alonso played in the cubs band box, Alonso would have 80 HRs, several of which would land in those baskets. Take those away and those cheap HRs would become doubles.
Is DRS normalized?
What about other metrics?
What about other seasons?
No denying he’s a great hitter. But I think he’s peaked at being an average defender.
A very valuable player, 100%.
Also, savant has him at 34 hrs at wrigley this year. You have data on that assertion of 80 or nah.
No question mark, because I know the answer.
Mets fan here. Pete’s issue with defense isn’t his glove, but rather his decisioning on the field and the accuracy of his throw. I’d be glad to toss him over to the Cubs to get PCA back. His whining, pouting, and lack of hitting anything but HRs has become exhausting.
If the opposing teams don’t want to offer top tier prospects then thats fine, we don’t have to trade him.
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That’s about the 100th time I’ve heard that in here. The other 99 times, it went badly for the team. Vazquez was a one-off case who did something crazy, but Pirate fans were talking like they were getting LAD’s two top prospects. Tiger fans with Boyd and Fulmer said the same thing.
You have two choice’s, and only two. Trade him or extend him. He really should’ve been traded at the deadline. Both Miami & SD were desperate for a 1B/DH.
Not desperate enough, apparently.
Only conclusion is that contrary to Max Scherzer’s farewell monologue, there is a real intent to compete in 2024.
Jackson holiday is worth an infinite amount of Pete Alonso’s.
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Alonso is a fine player who will deliver about a 4.2 bWAR, for one season. My guess on Holliday is more like 20-25 bWAR over 6 seasons.
Any prospect would be lucky to have Alonso’s career for their entire career. Even the highest rated prospects struggle or fail or are derailed by injuries. Too many fans count those eggs before they hatch. Look no further than Sano and Buxton. They were both top 5 guys at the same time and while both have shown MVP quality at times neither have lived up to their hype
That pretty much applies to any slugger. The key would be to front load the contract so the later years aren’t as bad financially. Easier said than done i know.
Unless you’re a team that’s going to be paying a lot of tax, this doesn’t make any sense. The value of money actually decreases as time goes on. You’d be better to back load it and then take whatever money you were going to front load it with, put it in some safe investment to earn interest, then in year 3 or whenever he craters, add it into the trade when you ship him out.
Why trade him? This article seems to imply that the Mets should trade for a teams lone top prospect. Sorry, as a Mets fan he should cost at least 3 on a deep prospect team. He’s a proven slugger and good with the glove. With that said I hope they don’t trade him.
The article says “at least one of their top five prospects” so any Alonso trade would have been for a package of prospects.
IMO, a trade is extremely unlikely. Shipping out a homegrown star who says he loves being a Met would alienate the base. Heck, even trading Nimmo would sour a lot of Mets fans.
dankyank: Unfortunately I’ve heard this before. “I love this team, this is where I want to finish my career, the fans are great…” But then someone will offer him a king’s ransom and all loyalties are put aside. The only player I know of that didn’t go for the bigger bucks is Arenado.
I’ve also seen Ken Griffey Jr take a discount to play for the Reds. Hometown loyalty exists
Because they’re not going to be good
Alonso has all the markings of being a Chris Davis clone. HR’ers up front of his career, Ko’s in back. His upcoming big contract will kill some foolish GM’s career. No thanks!
That’s a terrible take. Comparing Alonzo to Chris Davis?
Rosenthal said the Cubs and Brewers reached out to the Mets, not that the Mets indicated to any team that Alonso was on the market.
Key phrase in entire Rosenthal article: “But from the Mets’ perspective, no deal was ever close.”
Alonso was never going anywhere.
The Angels did the same thing with Ohtani. They dangled him just before the deadline just to see what other teams would offer. There was no way they were going to trade him.
Multiple baseball media confirmed the Mets were shopping Alonso.
Multiple baseball media that are not clickbait have said other teams approached the Mets about Alonso.
One guy in the Post, what amounts to the National Enquirer, said the Mets dangled Alonso in trade talks.
You have to judge the sources and what actually happened.
The Mets never intended to and didn’t trade Alonso.
Rosenthal olney and Sherman all confirmed Mets did in fact try to trade Alonso. So you can live in whatever alternate universe you want but the reality is they tried trade him. Given the lack of available impact bats this winter his value won’t diminish much at all, so he’ll be dealt in December.
Supposedly the Mets wanted PCA back from the Cubs… uhhhhhh… No.
The seamstress vetoed that.
Doesn’t hurt to ask
Get Alonso and kick Mervis to DH? Uhh, can’t do that, because Ohtani will have DH locked down…
quonsetpoint: If you’re serious, you are a true cub fan. OK, you got a big name in Swanson. But that doesn’t mean the cubs are going to get Ohtani. The only way that has even a sniff of a chance is if the cubs start playing their games in Wrigley field in California.
Panda to the Cubs for Matt Mervis and Peter Crow-Armstrong? From a Cubs standpoint, much of what they’ll do this winter will be determined by if they make a serious play to bring back Bellinger and Candelaria.
What the Mets really need is SP. Mets don’t have much to get excited about in the majors or in the minors.
But MLB teams are loathe to trading away gems like that. Pitching, especially starters, are just too darn hard to come by. A team needs SP depth to run at least 7 or 8 arms deep. Yep, pitching is valuable, but it’s also the #1 target of Mr. Injury Bug.
As an aside, I believe Peterson is gonna surprise a lot of people next year.
Panda? I think you have the wrong bear.
Nope, we got PCA and you can’t have him back.
I don’t think Bellinger is gonna be a cub next year, but you never know. Before this season his goal was to play for anyone who would have him. The plan was to play one season with the sucker who signed him. Then he would leave the club and look to sign a large contract with a contender. Well, he is playing for a contender. If Ricketts – who I have a lot of respect for after saying he was going to open his wallet and he did – offers Bellinger a big contract, he might stay.
Alonso will certainly net more than Teoscar. No harm in checking his value. I suspect the two sides will come to an agreement this offseason.
Wow Little Stevie, your Mommy let you stay up all night, after you saw her pooping? Impressive!
Hey little stevie just saw glad that you were able to get get out of your high chair, that’s definitely an improvement, after filling your diaper up with poo!
Love fried chourio
The Mets have got to extend Pete Alonso: if they don’t I legitimately think the fan base will revolt. For a historical comparison, look no further than Tom Seaver. The Mets traded him midway through his age-32 season: the tail end of his prime, and the Mets didn’t break more than 1.4 million in attendance again for SEVEN YEARS.
For analysts screaming that he’ll regress or become a Chris Davis clone, Davis only had 4 seasons in his 13 year career with an OPS above .800. Pete has never had a season BELOW .800. Chris Davis’s best single season strike out percentage was 27.8%. Pete’s WORST single season percentage was 26.4%, which was during his Rookie of the Year season, so actually he has improved in that regard over time. Pete is clearly a better hitter than Davis.
If you actually believe what Scherzer (who is petty) and “insiders” say about the Mets not being interested in competing in 2024, which Cohen has refuted, then what about 2025? 2025 would be the first year of Alonso’s free agency, so if they do plan on being competitive then, then they will need him then.
If you think that the Mets need to trade him to recoup pitching prospects, who will actually be available? The above Brewers prospect was a hitter. Most of the prospects the Mets got back at the deadline were hitters. I am sure they tried to get pitchers but it seems like teams are holding on to their pitching prospects because of the epidemic of Tommy John surgeries and uncertainty of pitching injuries in baseball. Unless the Mets get back a haul of pitching like the Nationals got for Juan Soto, should they even consider trading for a position player prospect when their top EIGHT prospects are all position players and they already have SS, C, and CF locked into long term contracts?
At the rate he is going, Pete will likely become the all-time Met home run king by 2025. Nobody has hit more home runs in this league in the last 5 years than he has, and expecting that even a fraction of this level of production will come from unproven prospects is unrealistic. His ability to fire up the fan base is an intangible that will be sorely missed if they let him walk.
Would love to debate this further if anyone is interested in a good discussion!
One great karmic irony would be this scenario:
1) Alonso gets traded to another team, and
2) he gets his first hit on that team, and
3) an opposing team’s player throws the commemorative ball into the stands.
Mets FO and kool-aid drinking Mets fans overvalue a rental Dave Kingman who has HR power and not much else. He’s not Freeman nor Olson
Alonso for Pete Crow-Armstrong. I know. I know. I need to get over it
One year of Corbin Burnes for one year of Pete Alonso?