The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.
Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.
While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.
Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.
That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.
Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.
Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM
Horse, meet Carrot.
Carrot, that’s Horse.
They sure “managed” his innings in September after his best month of the year in August. (wink, wink, nudge)
Hem – yeah I read that I thought it creates a good spot (if they want to retain him) to negotiate a 2 year deal for maybe 30-32 mil as a make up for those 2 2/3 innings being withheld.
That said, I’d bet there are games in first 3 months where if he had pitched better he would have made it so, no reason for Rangers to feel obligated.
It’s odd because those September games were important to the team and they almost missed the playoffs. He was pitching well in August. They lost 6 of 7 to start September. One of those was one of his starts. He wasn’t great but he wasn’t terrible, either, in that one start in September.
They were up a few games most of Aug and although they closed season with games against SEA they swept them a few wks prior and never fell behind in Wild Card lead.
He pitched decent in Aug but was only allowed to pitch 6 INNs once on Aug 1st, 2 games he was pulled in the 5th but pitched well as a whole. The other 3 Aug games he was pulled 4thor earlier when he got on trouble allowing a ton oh hits and walking a bunch.
As far as Sept he only started 1st appearance and last getting pulled in 4th in each. The other 6 appearances were in relief.
His usage did coincide with the additions of Scherzer and Monty and it made sense for him being the odd man out of the rotation. So it might not be as blatant as it seems, but I’d assume they were cognizant and watching his innings total the whole time even if that was not the catalyst for hom losing rotation spot.
Geez, what has happened to the 200 inning pitcher?! 150 is simply 30 start of 5 innings, and he fails to meet that. It is going to be either so difficult to make the Hall of Fame in the future, or so embarrassing for today’s Starting pitchers to be compared to the Greats.
It is embarrassing.
Scherzer was quoted as saying it was his job to go 7. Those greats you refer to would have been embarrassed to say that out loud.
Scherzer was quoted as saying it was his job to go 7. Those greats you refer to would have been embarrassed to say that out loud.
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Scherzer is 100% right. Once upon a time, SPs went 9. Then closers were invented and SPs went 8. Then setup guys were invented and SPs went 7.
As I like to repeat, the average RP has a better OPS (.717) than an SP has the 3rd time thru the lineup (.782).
It is not even remotely close. The issue isn’t whether to bring in an RP, it is how to balance the innings.
If he would’ve gone seven in his last start, his team would have been even more buried that it was with him pitching already.
Soon it will be the opener, middle guy and then the closer which means each will pitch three innings each.
Nolan Ryan would be an oddity in todays time of pitching!
Embarrassing to you, or someone else?
Tell me that Greg Maddux or Glavine or Smoltz or even Avery would have ever said it was his job to go 7. Those guys were striving to go 9.
Yup, lots of fans love the analytics game. Until they see it played.
Geez, what happened to the 300 inning pitcher?! These bozos barely getting 250 innings are going to have such a difficult time getting into the Hall of Fame in the future. Such an embarrassment!
Geez, what happened to the 250 inning pitcher?! These bozos barely getting 200 innings are going to have such a difficult time getting into the Hall of Fame in the future. Such an embarrassment!
300 inning guys? Name a few?
Phil Neikro, Don Drysdale, Gaylord Perry.
The idea of a 9-inning complete game left on a horse headed for Cooperstown, NY. That horse is gone and it’s not coming back.
You would never hear the end of it if a pitcher started and completed 9-inning games semi-regularly and then got injured.
“Ohhh the team should have taken him out sooner!”,
“They rode him too hard!!”,
“It was obviously from too many complete games!!”,
“Those big meany face jerks!”
Why risk putting your franchise through that?
Gone. Not coming back.
@Stymeed we know it is very unlikely he’s going into HOF. As far as his innings total he was bumped from rotation over a month prior to season ending. Which obviously equates to less innings pitched. I’d say it’s more embarrassing for one to speak out of school and make a false assumption opposed to trying to diminish another person due to some nostalgic view. That’s just me though…..
I was referring to ALL starters, not just Heaney. Its hard to believe that performance, which didn’t meet marginal goals, even brings up the opt out question. It should bring up questions of whether he should be given a starting job. I see the new way starters are being used, and they still get injured. Is there a correlation between innings pitched and injury? I hear numbers about effectiveness the 2nd and third time thru the lineup as the reason. I also see minor leaguers making it to AAA barely averaging 5 innings. If you don’t build up the stamina, coach them to actually pitch, you get a bunch of Andrew Heaneys. Lack of durability may also be a reason for injury.
We know that batters start to get a bit of an advantage 3rd time through on all pitchers. Now with a back of rotation arm such as Heaney, I can see why a team would rather go to bullpen.
As far as whether he deserves a starting job, the Rangers replaced him in rotation at trade deadline. So I’d say that in itself answers the question you posed from the Rangers perspective.
Everything is velocity today and the arms can only go so long. Plus managers try to preserve the arms from injury. Pitchers don’t pitch anymore. They throw.
Smaller foul territory, smaller ballparks, well-protected hitters, plate crowding by hitters thanks to being well-protected…there is more to it, which factors into pitchers not lasting 200+ innings.
When Moreno recovered from colliding with Harper, Gallen threw a warm up pitch off the mound. Free, easy 90 on the gun. If Gallen was able to work around 90, could he exceed 200+ innings yearly? One has to wonder what MLB is willing to do to minimize the number of Tommy John appointments every month.
Not a stellar platform, but he should be able to get $12.5+ next year on the open market, and very possibly over term (ie 3 years $13 per).
Where’s the “who gives a flying crap” option?
If you don’t care about this, you could simply not look at it. No one is forcing you to engage with MLBTR articles and polls
Heaney has inconsistent results in yo-yo like years. He averages out to mediocrity. So as an imaginary GM, I wouldn’t risk signing him to a deal that included his age 34 season (or beyond). Most pitchers begin to decline around then.
Heaney should take the money and stay.
What you’re describing here is a journeyman. So the question is, how much are journeyman starting pitchers paid in the current market? Probably more than $13M per, but maybe not enough more for him to test it.
Exactly this, and after observing him in the playoffs, I scratch my heading wondering how he’s even in the rotation.
No no. Heaney had never pitched more than 130 IP. Texas was just making sure he didn’t injure himself… *cough*
Heaney opted out of the first inning in his latest start.
About as durabke as Rodon
Similar age
Similar career numbers
Way less money
Goes to show how overpaid Rodon was
Ignore the similar numbers point
The Rangers did him dirty by manipulating his innings. I would opt out based on that alone.
Heaney is better than some of the guys they threw out there. It’s messed up that they risked 1st place and possibly even the playoffs to manipulate his innings. It goes to show how incompetent Chris Young is. Without the budget raises, he wouldn’t have accomplished nearly this much.
He list his rotation spot end of Aug and someone had to go with the additions of Scherzer and Monty, even with ScherEr getting hurt. And he made sense as odd man out. Now with him starting 1st and last appearances of Sept and his 6 relief appearnces, I’m sure they were watching his innings and were are somewhat culpable here.
However though, he had he performed as a top of rotation arm he’d likely have stayed in rotation and this would be a non issue now. So blame goes both ways here.
The article failed to mention the potential state of the Rangers rotation in 2024. With good health this spring (big if) and no other offseason additions or subtractions, the Rangers rotation without Andrew Heaney figures to be:
1-Jacob deGrom
2-Max Scherzer
3-Nathan Eovaldi
4-Jon Gray
5-Dane Dunning
Texas also figures to go hard to retain pending free agent Jordan Montgomery this offseason. There might not be room for Heaney in the Rangers rotation which could impact his value come 2025. This was the tipping point for me in voting for him opting out of his contract.
If I’m his agent, I’m telling him to exercise the option because if I’m an owner/PBO or GM, no way would give him anything close to 13 million on the open market.
He’s a fifth starter with an injury history, the guy would be lucky at a multiple year offer with a higher than 7 million AAV.
deGrom is out until 4 months in, I believe.
Yes. Jacob deGrom had his second TJ surgery this past June and is shooting for an August return in 2024. The Rangers still figure to add a more substantial SP than Heaney this offseason and the free agent market features plenty of them including fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
Heaney would be fighting for a back end rotation spot and potentially have to settle for a bullpen or swingman spot if he stayed with the Rangers. $13MM would be a decent payday for such a role but he might bet on himself as a mid-rotation starter as a free agent this offseason.
I don’t understand why people are so blind, Heaney is going to be 33 years old, has a career era of 4.5, a lengthy injury history and has only pitched like a middle of the rotation starter once for 70 something innings. Yet, people think he can “bet on himself” as a middle of the rotation starter? He should have been bumped to the pen a long time ago.
deGrom will not be ready until August, earliest.
Re-sign Monty is a must.
If they can keep Monty, ‘24 playoffs would be deGrom, Eovaldi, Monte and Scherzer (if he’s healthy..). Wouldn’t be surprised if Dane takes another step forward too.
Early in his career, Heaney signed a deal with Fantex to sell 10% of his career earnings in exchange for an upfront payment of $3.34 million. I wonder if that factors into his decision in any significant way.
Man that was stupid.
Heaney isn’t consistent enough to leave 13m on the table. If he has another strong showing in 2024, then he can hit FA with hopes of increasing that.
deGrom doesn’t factor until maybe August at best. Who fills that spot until then?
Kershaw or Montgomery possibly
As previously mentioned, the FA market for SP’s looks to be pretty solid this offseason. There could also be some ace type pitchers available via trade like Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease. The Rangers farm system ranks #10 per MLB.com which could make them a viable partner with the Guardians or White Sox.
I’d imagine if the ChiSox look to rebuild or even retool this offseason they could get a king’s ransom for Cease and his his two remaining years of arbitration eligibility. Of course there are plenty of strong contenders in need of quality SP’s with more elite farm systems than the Rangers. The Orioles and Dodgers come to mind.
With as many teams as there is that are desperate for starting pitching, he would be a fool not to opt out. The team that gets him will likely regret it though.
I’d be shocked if he did better than $13M.. He could do maybe $18M/2, but that’s likely worse than $13M/1.
Texas seems to like giving out 3/$30M
deals to pitchers. Give him a 3/$24M deal with escalators based on innings pitched that could max out at 3/30.
Heaney is the poster child for how over valued pitching has become.
The former poster child for for this was probably Ubaldo Jimenez.
Guys who seem like they should be spot starters and openers worth around $6M a year are potentially worth the modern equivalent of $20M a season and Andrew Heaney is potentially worth between $13M-$20M per season for 1.4 WAR.
I think if Heaney and the Rangers like their relationship and view his value between $13M and $20M, I see no reason why they can’t work out a 2 year/$33M pact.
Still, $15M AAV for a pitcher like Heaney is absolutely nuts. Bonkers koo koo bananas.
If Rangers like Heaney enough to sign him for 2 more years, why did they find a replacement for him in rotation at trade deadline? They currently have a 1-4 of next seasons opening day rotation under contract (Scherzer, Dunning, Eovaldi, Gray) and then have deGrom projected to come back in Aug.
When and if Heaney opts out, I’d assume the only free agent SP they’d want to bring back is Montgomery. If not him I’m sure Snell, Kershaw, Nola, and others would interest them much more than Heaney. Too many options this free agent market to bring back a guy they felt the need to replace in rotation at the trade dedline.
1) I’m not a fan of Heaney and don’t give one iota about the Rangers, so they can do what they want and I will literally not care at all. Not a Rangers fan.
2) I am saying Heaney has been an inexplicably over valued pitcher for a long time now, a pitcher I view as being Quadruple-A and borderline DFA material for the past few years.
I am saying it is absolutely bonkers to me that a career 4.49 ERA pitcher who averages a 10-10 record is worth much of anything. I understand that guys who are veterans and who pitch and who can start have extra value and so he shouldn’t be making the league minimum, but his salaries have been quite bloated for the value he is offering.
He did pitch approximately an average season for himself in 2023, I’ll give him that. But at 1.4 WAR and for a guy who maybe pitches to 1.75 WAR in a good year, he should be making about what he is making right now at the very top of his market- $12M-$13M a year- and even that is a slight overpay.
I am saying if they don’t try to flip him at $13M and they were almost comfortable giving him $20M for one year and he offers to opt out if they re-sign him to a deal, I was jokingly saying that they might as well meet in the middle and extend his deal further by another couple of years at these ludicrous salaries.
I don’t actually care how any baseball owner spends their money or how much any player is making relative to their actual value, but the value metrics are well established and Heaney is not worth his salaries and I find it fascinating he is paid as much as he is paid, whether on the low end or the high end.
I think in some senses you are right. He’s overvalued for the outcomes he’s posted in the past. But I also think that’s not what teams pay for. They pay for skills that they project to get the team good results. In Heaney’s case, it’s a lot of teams that see the pitch metrics and his usually very good command as an an indicator that a huge season is possible and they make that bet. The Dodgers got that part right. They didn’t get the durability part that would’ve made it a huge breakout.
Fair enough. Teams are paying for his potential based on his peripherals and his peak moments of performance. Again and I say this with no sarcasm- good for Heaney. It’s gotta feel amazing to pitch as inconsistently with as bloated an ERA and as limited an innings count as Heaney does and to still get paid and offered what he is paid- there are a lot of pitchers out there who don’t make as much who pitch better than him- but he’s got those peripherals that teams believe will coalesce into a dream season and they want to pay him $15M today for a potential $40M value season tomorrow. I get it.
Ubaldo was never the poster child for being overpaid. While under team control he had a 3-4 season run in COL pitching pretty good in the start progressively getting better culminating in a great season he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting. He did that despite having to pitch home games in COL.
He fell off a bit the following season and was traded to CLE. The rest of that season and the next he was not very good. In his last season of team control in CLE he pitched quite well 3.30 ERA and 194 Ks in 182 IP. He then signed his only multi year free agent deal with BAL, where he never pitched really any better than ok. So yes he was overpaid to his performance for the 4 years in BAL. However the contract they offered made sense due to his past success and the season he was coming off. So again he was far from the posterboy of being overpaid. And it’s kind of laughable one would make that assumption as you I hope we’re clueless he only had 1 contract he signed as a free agent. If you were aware of that, then it makes the assertion even worse.
He was 3 seasons removed from his Cy Young ranking, he had a 5.40 and a 4.81 ERA in 2 out of the 3 years he was in Cleveland, he signed with Baltimore because they’re generally not a big market free agent signing club, who overpaid for a back of the rotation arm just to show their fans they were making some kind of effort, because good starting pitchers were not gonna sign with them.
There are a lot of players like this, who aren’t really worth their free agency market, but they’ve earned the opportunity to make their big career contract and so a team with a lot more issues than that one player’s position sign that player to show they’re making an effort, when they are generally overpaying someone that other teams didn’t want to sign.
Such as Nick Swisher with Cleveland.
Heaney is that guy right now. For whatever reason, he’s *the* case study in ‘guy getting way overpaid because they reached free agency and someone is gonna pay him”.
I’m not against it. It’s a business, they’re generally underpaid pre-free agency, being a major leaguer is like being handed a winning lottery ticket- they should get every penny they can.
Good for Heaney.
I am just surprised that a guy with Heaney’s numbers and limited durability gets paid as well he does even in today’s market.
But I guess $15M is the new $8M- for a long time those borderline pitchers who were free agents tended to get like $8M a year for 2-3 years and now those guys get like $15M a year, give or take.
Again- good for them.
Ubaldo was only in CLE 2 and a half seasons. The half season he was there was the season after he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting. The final season in CLE, again is where he pitched to the tune of a 3.30 ERA with 194 Ks in 182 INNs. So at the time BAL extended him he was by no means a back of rotation arm.
2010 3rd in Cy Young voting
2011 down season COL/CLE
2012 down season CLE
2013 3.30 ERA season I mentioned CLE
2014 signed with BAL
At the point BAL signed him there was definitely reason to believe he still could be a front of rotation difference maker. BAL was in the playoffs in 2012 and in 2014 played in ALCS. BAL was a contender, they were spending $, and yes they were bringing in big name players at that time.
Sorry but I ve kind of noticed many of your comments seem as though you are making false assumptions and you don’t exactly know the facts.
Sorry, but I am amazed you follow my comments and you assume I am making assumptions and don’t know the facts. I have watched these guys pitch, I have followed their careers, if I am writing a comment about someone I double check their stats on baseball-reference, spotrac, fangraphs, etc.
I see what I see. Guys with ERA’s well over 4 and closer to 5 who blew a lot of games and gave up home runs like candy and so on and you think I am incorrect in calling them over valued?
I’m a regular on this site so yes I have noticed patterns in comments. And no I don’t think it would be incorrect to call Heaney overvalued. However that is not something exclusive to him, that is pitching as a whole.
Now calling Ubaldo the poster boy for overvalued is simply false. The start of his career was brilliant especially with Coors as home field. And considering the rebound in his walk year, he earned his one free agent contract just did bit live upto it.
And the notion nobody wanted to sign with BAL backthewas again fase,they were contenders from early to mid 2010’s.
Moot point, he gets cut after the season is over. Rangers will eat that option.
Rangers don’t have the option to cut him, unless they want to pay the full $13 million. It’s a player option, not a team option.
Heaney should opt out. $13MM is a lot of money, but he’s likely to get more on the open market given the demand for starting pitching. His performance has been inconsistent, and with the way pitchers are being paid these days, he should test the waters for a potentially larger guarantee.
20 mil coming back from Perez hitting FA. Monty’s current 10 too.
Let Haney walk, get Monty!!!
Push f
I always thought Heaney should have moved to the bullpen years ago. Before he turned 30 he was very similar to Andrew Miller. Then he continued with the injuries. His stuff would have played up so well in the pen and he would surely be working through a big money contract (for a reliever). Like Miller he had a very high ceiling that always seemed just out of reach. He would look like he was turning a corner and then he would get injured again. Now it’s probably too late to make the switch and expect a big contract if he was as effective as I believe he could have been in the pen.
I think he should opt out. If there’s not a bigger guarantee out there to his liking, I don’t see $13m being so far out of reach for him. Texas was obviously not a great fit for him, so staying there isn’t likely to help him have the platform year he would hope to have. Shop for an organization that is able to help pitchers like him get the most out of their stuff.
Should have a “Who cares” option in poll
The answer is clear.
Based on Heaney’s production so far in 2024, any thoughts on his potential value in 2025? 0-4 and ERA is mediocre but K/BB is up.