Our AFL coverage continues. The schedule is winding down. The Fall Stars game was played on Sunday. The two-game postseason will take place next Friday and Saturday. James Triantos and Jakob Marsee continue to battle for top batter status. Presently, Triantos has the edge. On the pitching side, Davis Daniel has the best claim to the top performance as a starter. Reliever Emiliano Teodo has 11 scoreless innings with 19 strikeouts with only three hits and four walks allowed.
Listed stats are from the AFL. To emphasize, this is AFL coverage.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Braden Nett, 21, SP, SDP
17.1 IP, 21 K, 13 BB, 4.67 ERA
Though he doesn’t have the shiniest stats, Nett posted an encouraging AFL as detailed by Baseball America. An undrafted pitcher, Nett has seen his velocity approach triple-digits as a starter, complemented by visually impressive secondary offerings. Command eludes Nett – an issue dating back to his pre-draft days. However, he showed strides in attacking the strike zone during this fall session. If he’s able to build upon his success next season, he’ll find his way into top prospect conversations. There’s considerable relief risk here if his command doesn’t continue on an upward trajectory.
Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
84 PA, 3 HR, .244/.302/.423
The second-best Montgomery in the AFL by the numbers, Colson is low-key divisive among evaluators. None that I’ve contacted doubt he has a Major League future. Most see as a blue-chip regular. Where the arguments begin is the type of regular. Some see him as a core performer. While they acknowledge the upside, they’re skeptical Montgomery will reach it. The doubters point to an impending move to third base where there will be more pressure on his bat. Advocates are confident he can support a move down the defensive spectrum. His exit velocities suggest he’s a small tweak or epiphany away from unlocking more extra-base outcomes.
Montgomery took home MVP honors in the Fall Stars game. He went 2-for-2 with a run and an RBI.
Emiliano Teodo, 22, P, TEX
11 IP, 19 K, 4 BB, 0.00 ERA
The Rangers have developed Teodo as a starter, but his future appears to be in the bullpen. Though listed at 6’ 1’’, one evaluator I contacted believes he’s several inches shorter. That’s backed by the FanGraphs crew – they describe him as “lilliputian.” His usage – and success – in the AFL points to an imminent role shift. As a starter, he touched upper-90s. He has the look of an on-meta power arm who relies on effectively wild heaters and hammer curves.
James Triantos, 20, 2B/3B, CHC
92 PA, 3 HR, 9 SB, .423/.505/.700
The hits, triples, and OPS leader of the AFL, Triantos has long appeared on scouts’ breakout lists. The results haven’t really stood out in full season leagues where he’s been more solid than exceptional. The Cubs are developing him as a super utility type including the odd game in center field. He focused on third base in 2022 and second base this year. He’ll spend 2024 in the upper minors where we all eagerly await to see if his power continues to develop. Triantos is a high-probability Major Leaguer. His future role remains open for debate.
Aaron Sabato, 24, 1B, MIN
74 PA, 7 HR, .215/.320/.585
A classic TTO slugger, Sabato has bashed his way to a share of the AFL home run lead along with fellow Twin Kala’i Rosario. Sabato works counts and routinely runs over-30 percent strikeout rates. In fact, he’s done so at every level. The reward for all those whiffs is some of the most impressive exit velocities in professional baseball. As a right-handed first baseman, the standards he needs to reach are rather high. He was a tad old for Double-A this season and produced an exactly league-average 100 wRC+. This is a profile that tends to late-bloom and early-fade. Sabato is Rule 5 eligible, and there’s a solid chance he’ll be left exposed.
Three More
Liam Hicks, TEX (24): While scouts are dismissive of Hicks for valid reasons – low exit velocities and sub-par defense – there’s no question he’s posted a dominant AFL season. He’s batting .455/.556/.530 in 81 plate appearances. His 15 walks nearly double his eight strikeouts. For Hicks to have big league relevance, he might need to channel his inner Luis Arraez. Or change his approach.
Wilmer Flores, DET (22): Flores’ AFL matches his scouting report to a “T.” He’s worked 18 innings with 22 strikeouts and only five walks. He also coughed up 25 hits and a 4.00 ERA. Flores has an attractive combination of high ground ball and swinging strike rates. Though Rule 5 eligible, he’s a lock to be added by the Tigers.
Sterlin Thompson, COL (22): Thompson has compiled a .950 OPS without hitting a home run in 93 plate appearances. A designated hitter, his bat nonetheless shows signs of carrying him to the Majors. He handles fastballs of all types well. Presently, he’s better at laying off breaking balls than he is at hitting them – a trait that will likely determine if he’s a Quad-A slugger or a future big leaguer.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Wilmer Flores is good but isn’t he like 35 years old? A real gamer tho prone to a good cry.
>A real gamer tho
What’s a gamer?
It’s the brother of the infielder with SF. They have the same first name…not kidding. Pretty good looking pitcher who made the Top 100 on some lists last year.
The AFL Stars game was fantastic yesterday. If you have not made it to Az for the Fall league, make a plan to do so next year. Its not tourist season so you can get hotels unlike spring training and there are less than 500 fans at most games so you can sit anywhere you want. The talent level of the prospects is incredible.
Nett gave up a few hits and a walk then a Dodger prospect came in and gave up 3 HR that drove in 2 of the runners Nett left on base and a few more of his own. While he is a starter now, I think he eventually is a reliever with his velocity.
He went from a 5’9″ high school junior that threw in the upper 80s to 6’3″ and throwing upper 90s to triple digits 3 years later. Preller’s scouting staff is awesome at finding talent like him. I think he will make the jump to San Antonio this coming season.
Marsee continued to shine. He has middle of the pack power with great speed and can play all 3 OF positions. He has the glove to stick in CF. This kid is going to be playing in the majors soon. He will go back to AA San Antonio to get more seasoning this coming season, but don’t be surprised if you see him in the majors when the first Padres OF gets injured in 2024.
Oooo Sabato. I remember back when he was considered a legit prospect. Sabato’s AA line was pretty unimpressive. .221/.329/.430. 13.2% BB rate 32.3% K rate. wRC+ 100 for AA with the highest BABIP he’s seen in MiLB at a .302. Sabato generates a lot of weak contact in between the big hits and I think he’s more passive at the plate than selective. Slow as molasses in January, Sabato isn’t moving away from 1B unless it’s to take on the DH position. He feasts off mistake pitches which tend to become much more scarce at AAA and above.
While the article paints his type of player as a late bloom/early fade, Sabato was a 1st round pick because it was expected he was a close to MLB ready slugger as the Twins took him in the first round of 2021’s draft. His draft profile was that of a player who exhibits a great eye at the plate, talking walks instead of strikeouts with huge power who’d likely hit for a solid average. That’s not how it turned out.
He faded fast as a prospect, getting worse (but still decent) in his second year at A+ before the Twins moved him to AA and the wheels fell off in 2022. Sabato was prone to long stretches of complete ineptitude at the plate followed by brief mistake-pitch fueled explosions. He was exposed as passive at the plate rather than having a legitimately good eye, but all the expectations of his defensive tool have come true.
With no defensive value, uninspiring power for a slugger and a weak hit tool, he was apparently granted some AFL time to prove he’s maybe worthy of protecting.
I’m of the opinion AFL is somewhere between A+ and AA competition levels. I don’t see why the Twins would roster him. It’s a waste when you’ll just get him back after being DFA’d in a couple weeks after the season starts at the latest.
He’s definitely not going on our 40. But ouch. You didn’t need to point out the details on this lol. No one on our Twins blogs liked the pick. You don’t pick such a limited ceiling in the first round (granted it was number 22, I think). The Twins value power-only bats a bit too much (hello Joey Gallo). At least Gallo played great defense while striking out 44% of the time.
Yeah, re-reading that was pretty brutal. Like he left my little sister at the altar or something.
There was plenty to be bullish in his profile the Twins scouting team saw. Sabato crushed pitches at North Carolina and a lot of them went over the fences. He was also a tough out there who made pitchers throw strikes, then punished them in a strong ACC conference.
2019 age 20 = .344/.453/.696 OPS 1.149 14.0% BB, 20.1% K
2020 age 21 = .292/.478/.708 OPS 1.186 24.4% BB, 17.8% K
It’s not like Sabato wasn’t a highly touted prospect. MLB had him ranked at 41st as did Prospects365, CBS had him at 48th, Keith Law at 35th, for instance. Grabbing him at 27th, though, felt like a reach.
Sabato was universally considered a fringy 1B and more likely DH, though. The Twins really gambled on the bat despite the super shortened 2020 plate appearances. After banking on guys like Rooker and Larnach in the first rounds in 2017-2018, it sure seemed Falvey was intent on sticking with the power bat who were limited defensively. I wonder if the scouting team had some influence as Falvey’s decisions followed the drafting of Alex Kirilloff in 2016.