Infielder Luis Arraez spoke today to Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, saying that he has not had any extension talks with the Marlins, though he would be open to the idea if they approached him. “They haven’t talked to me about an extension, but if they do, I’m available,” he said. “I love Miami, I love my teammates. I feel at home when I play with those guys.”
Arraez, 27 in April, came over to the Marlins from the Twins in a trade prior to 2023. His first season with Miami saw him produce in fairly similar fashion to his time in Minnesota, as a high-contact bat that’s extremely tough to strike out. He was punched out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the lowest among qualified hitters, as Jeff McNeil was second at 10%. Arraez flirted with .400 for a while but his batting average eventually finished at a still-excellent .354. He added 10 home runs and his total offensive contributions translated to a wRC+ of 132, indicating he was 32% better than the league average hitter.
He’s generally not considered as gifted on his defense as he is with a bat in his hands. At his primary position of second base, he’s been graded as worth two Defensive Runs Saved in his career and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at almost exactly league average. Outs Above Average, however, isn’t enthused at all. Arraez is currently at -25 OAA in his career, with a tally of -10 in 2023 alone. The Twins had moved him off that spot and into a first base role prior to the trade but the Marlins put him back at the keystone this year.
Perhaps the Fish will move Arraez to first base down the line, but he fits better at second for the time being. First baseman Josh Bell triggered his player option and will be staying in Miami for one more season, barring a trade. Arraez can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons and could perhaps move over to first after Bell hits free agency a year from now. As a Super Two player, Arraez has already had a couple of passes through arbitration, making $2.125M in 2022 and $6.1MM this year with two more to go. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $10.8MM next year.
Given his unique skill set, finding a perfect comparison for an extension is a bit tricky. McNeil, mentioned above, is a similar contact-over-power player who was between four and five years of service time a year ago when he signed a four-year, $50MM extension with the Mets, $12.5MM average annual value, with a club option for 2027. McNeil wasn’t a Super Two player and had only banked $3MM in his first pass through arb. He was also significantly older, going into his age-31 season, whereas Arraez is only going to be 27 next year. However, McNeil is considered a better all-around player and stronger defender, grading out well at second base, third base and the outfield corners. He had accrued 15.9 wins above replacement at the time of that deal, according to FanGraphs, while Arraez is currently at 10.6. Baseball Reference is a bit kinder to Arraez, 15.2 bWAR, since it uses DRS while FanGraphs uses a hybrid of UZR and OAA.
Arraez should be able to argue for a larger contract than the one McNeil got based on his youth and greater leverage from his Super Two-boosted salary. But on the other hand, if he is destined to move off an up-the-middle position eventually, that will subtract from his appeal and perhaps reduce the willingness of the Marlins to make a long-term investment in him. Arraez reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Twins prior to 2022, though that was presumably far lower than any offer he would receive now. At that point, he was just about to go into arbitration for the first time and was coming off a relative down year in 2021. Since then, he’s had two excellent seasons while banking over $8MM.
If the Marlins do have interest in betting on Arraez for the long term, there is little stopping them at the moment. They don’t generally run high payrolls but also have almost nothing on the books in the future. Sandy Alcantara and Avisaíl García are the only players with contracts for 2025, with that being the last guaranteed year for Garcia.
PAY THIS MAN!!! What more does he have to do?
How about having value without having to hit .400? What about being able to magically generate multiple other pieces of value where they can actually do something during the time he is signed? Unless things are drastically different in the organization, I don’t see the reason to pay him
One tool player, but boy that one tool is supernatural. Unfortunately every other tool is a negative. Interesting player, but the value is a gimmick at least on this team.
Play competent defense?
he is more likely to be traded in this circus of a franchise
As a Marlins fan, I would trade him, and basically anyone not named Eury Perez, Trevor Rogers, Jesus Sanchez, Nick Fortes. Edward Cabrera is a maybe, depending, and Jazz probably needs a couple of months of the season b/c I assume his value is probably super low right now, but I would definitely move him.
Marlins have a chance to turn things around in closer to 2-3 years, instead of much longer, and they should take the opportunity, with a new PoBO that actually understands asset management, and hopefully make some deals that can put them back in the right direction, after 3.5 years of an instant replay of 2014-2017, especially the last 2 seasons of at best questionable decision making
It was already a maybe they should by mid-season before they lost Sandy. Now, it shouldn’t even be anywhere in question. Start over, this time without messing it up
Personally, I would keep luzardo over all the guys you mentioned except Eury. Luzardo has flashed ace ability for extended stretches, which not many can say. Now that he’s pitched a full season, maybe he can gain more consistency.
I could see jazz getting moved like you said as he has a ton of talent that I’m sure some teams would value highly.
They should take the opportunity to get value for Luzardo though. They only have 2 (or maybe it’s 3?) years of control, and they aren’t going to pay him, so now is a time to trade him for good value with a good amount of control left for someone else. I think that makes him more valuable
As a mets fan, i’d be happy to pretend I’m stearns and make an offer!
So according to you the Marlins should tare everything down and hope that guys develop. Sorry but it’s not going to be a 2-3 year rebuild if the Marlins gut this roster. The Marlins will be bad for at least half a decade.
And looking at the names of the guys you want to build around is laughable. Fortes?!? Sanchez!?!? Trevor!??! Are you sure you are a Marlins fan??
Who said build around those guys. I said keep for now. Meaning try to get value for them later, for obvious reasons
The Marlins aren’t other organizations where they can throw money at problems like having a very thin farm system, lacking depth, having injuries, wasting money on pieces they don’t need that are total black holes. They have to build correctly and then supplement that with good decisions
As of right now, they are already facing a long situation of likely several years at minimum, similar to what thy literally just did, except doing nothing means they don’t even know it, and it will be even more of a difficult issue.
Move pieces with value and actually get value back, and go from there. Make moves to sign pieces you can flip later. Use your resources and maximize assets. Every other organization in their situation does these things. There are FA options that you can use to fill in gaps at prices they can actually afford, and then trade elsewhere
Paying certain guys to not be a contender doesn’t make any sense and just puts them in the same position they’ve been in for the last 7+years
So keep a back up catcher, a rotational outfielder and an injured starter but trade your best players? That logic here is crap to say the least.
A lot of teams don’t just throw money at their problems. They draft and develop player. This is what the Marlins should be doing while they have the pitching that they have.
You do realize that the majority of the core that got the Marlins to the playoffs is returning! The Marlins aren’t in some terrible situation.
Move piece?!! Like they did with Stanton, Yelich and Realmuto. Tell me how did that work out for the Marlins? Tell me how that have worked out for the Tigers or the A’s?
I now understand exactly who is responding to me. Comprehension is difficult for some people.
You just aren’t making a lick of sense lol
What is your proposition to what the Marlins should do this offseason? What gets them closer to winning a World Series? What gets them to sustainable success?
I’d pay him simply because unlike power, the ability to hit the way he does is not something that vanishes overnight, he’ll be able to do this for a while, and what’s more is he’s been hitting like this since he was in the minors too so it’s not like this is some aberration. Any team in the league would love to have a bat like his at the top of the lineup.
All of his value comes when he is hitting close to .400, and even then, the team was relatively the same as it was b/c of other things they lost. The only difference was they won some of those significant number of 1-2 run games they had previously lost, and had a bunch of late inning comebacks. The bullpen was slightly better. The Marlins were awful since the AS break, which coincided with him not hitting .400 the way he was. I don’t disagree with him potentially being valuable on teams, but I don’t think the Marlins are that team
Oh don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he’s Trout or Acuna Jr. He alone is not going to single handedly save a team. But on a contender, being able to swap a guy at the top of the order with a .330-.340 OBP with a guy who has a career .379 OBP? That’s a boost any way you slice it. You’re not getting him for his RBI production, you’re getting him for your 3 and 4 holes RBI production.
Which is my point. He is more valuable on a team that isn’t the Marlins
Marlins: Yeah great we definitely wanna extend him just give us a few years and we’ll get back to h…. And well we guess he really wanted to be a Dodger.
It’s unfortunate that the saber-nerds completely destroyed baseball culture that used to promote guys who could actually hit and reward them. This guy should be one of the faces of baseball.
I’m not going to pretend he wasn’t amazing last year, but that doesn’t mean it was a good trade, and it doesn’t mean the Marlins should pay him, or he can’t be replaced by any of the other 7500 2nd baseman they already had. On other teams, he is potentially very valuable. On the Marlins, I don’t think so, unless things are drastically different somehow
For me it’s always about how much $ he’s seeking. I would give him Andres Gimenez or Jeff McNeil money, possibly even Cronenworth money in a heartbeat. But I would not pay him 100 M+, because his bat is 95% of his production.
That’s fair, and obviously, is always a factor, but with a team like the Marlins, what does keeping him actually do for them? What can they do during the time they’re paying him? The Marlins have limited resources they can use. That’s why the bad deals they’ve made the last couple of years has been so detrimental. I’m not saying don’t spend anything. I’m saying only spend when it makes sense b/c they can’t afford anything else. If they hadn’t wasted the money they did the last couple of years where they did, they could have alloted it to stuff they actually needed, and maybe they’re in a totally different situation
Agreed. A big part of the reason why the Marlins made the playoffs was because they had Arraez at the top of the order. When you have a high average, you tend to get on base. When you get on base, you tend to score runs. It’s common sense but it’s something that’s been lost in a sea of OPS+’s, xWOBA’s, ISO’s, launch angles, MPH off the bats, etc.
Tell me you don’t understand those stats without telling me you don’t understand those stats.
I feel like there’s a misunderstanding between those who like sabermetrics and those who don’t. Pretty much any modern stat like wRC+, OPS+, wOBA, xwOBA, xBA, and even xSLG% all say “Yeah, he was a really good hitter.” Look on Baseball Savant, and nearly every single one of their expected numbers say he was a great hitter. But those who are ignorant, on both sides, automatically assume the sabermetics don’t see him as a good hitter.
Those stats say he was a distinctly above average hitter but nowhere near the best hitter in the league.
Still, 130 wRC+, 79th percentile xwOBA, 100th percentile xBA, top 16 in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS. I don’t agree that he is the best hitter in the league. Corey Seager, Yandy Diaz, Freddie Freeman, Acuna Jr. were all able to hit .325+ with at least 25 homers and 35 doubles. Not to mention all three walked nearly twice as often as Arraez. But he was easily a top 15 batter imo.
79th percentile xwoba is not exceptional. On the old 20-80 scale that would be a 65. Distinctly above average but not exceptional. Hell, Donovan Solano is in that neighborhood. You literally laid out right there why Arraez is good but not exceptional. There are hitters with way more power, who walk more, and play good defense. Batting average matters in that it contributes to obp and slug and there are many hitters that beat him at both.
FanGraphs describes a 60 grade as plus and 70 as double-plus, so it’s definitley better than just above average. I kind of see the Solonao comparrison, but in the end Solano had a 116 wRC+ and Arraez had a 132 wRC+. One was a good hitter, the other was a top 15 hitter in the league.
Their peripherals look similar. There is inherently some luck baked into their real stats. 50 is average with each 10 representing one standard deviation. 68th percentile would be 60. 95th percentile is 70. 99.7 is 80.
My apologies for us “saber” nerds actually wanting to win games instead of arbitrarily conforming to ideals about how the game should be played. Arraez is a good player, but don’t conflate him being exceptionally unique with being exceptionally valuable because he simply isn’t. A 130wrc+ with some of the worst defense in the league is not an MVP.
@ArrogantAnalyst
Ironic that your mention poor defense when we promote guys who are good at hitting HRs, walking and striking out who are normally terrible at defense. J.D. Martinez and Kyle Schwarber are excellent examples of overrated overall players. I’m not suggesting Arraez is the reincarnation of Ruth but that we have moved so far away from celebrating guys who are naturally talented at hitting the ball and not creating outs.
I’d definitley not say that JDM is an example of a player who isn’t naturally talented at hiting the ball and not creating outs. The guy has not hit below .270 since 2013. Since his breakout in 2014, he is nearly a .300 batter at .293. Sure, he’s not batting .290-.300 like he was in his prime, but he’s also going into his mid-30s.
Also, there’s a difference beteen hitting the ball and not creating outs. OBP is specifically created as a stat that specifically shows how often you don’t create outs. It was created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth in the 1940s. I’m not saying Schwarber is the greatest hitter of all time or anything, but Schwarber is better than average at not creating outs with his .343 OBP.
Did I ever hold up those guys as perfect players. Schwarber isn’t that great of a player and I would never suggest that. Objectively, the most valuable hitters slug and get on base at a high rate. The most consistent way to do that is walks and xbh not BABIP. If they do that enough it doesn’t matter how much they strike out except for the fan experience. Unlike many old school fans, I’m not trying to enforce how the game should be played. I will take whatever value I can get. Arraez objectively is not an exceptionally valuable player.
Neither are most of the players but I’m just saying that it’s refreshing to see someone naturally talented to actually make contact and hit to get on base as it was once considered to be a top talent in baseball.
They’d be crazy not to pay him. And I’m a pathetic A’s fan. FU JOHN FISHER! Stay in Oakland! Sell the damn team!!!
I read your post in Eddie Murphy’s voice as Gumby lol
can someone tell me what WRC+ means and how it translates to percentage above or below average? I feel we aren’t told this enough on MLBTradeRumors.
From what I understand, it’s a statistical analysis of how likely someone is to either get on base and score a run, or how often they hit with runners in scoring position. 100 being league average, etc. I’m really just taking an educated guess here cause I don’t actually know for sure.
It’s calculated based on runs created which is a linear weights system for individual events that a batter can achieve in a PA and then set to park factors then put against the leave avarage park adjusted runs created.
It’s very similar to OPS+ where 100 is average with say a 150 representing 50% more valuable to scoring runs on a rate basis. OPS’ flaw is that it treats obp and slg as equally valuable whereas a point of obp is a bit more valuable than a point of slg. WRC+ is the most consistent predictor of run scoring.
Along with Arraez, they should also extend Jesus Luzardo and Tanner Scott.
I always think trade bullpen arms when they have some value, unless you are a super contender, and right now is by far the most value Tanner Scott has ever come close to having, and the moment his command returns to normality and his luck runs out, there is no way that matters for the Marlins more than what they can get for him
Luzardo has legit value, and they desperately need talent in the organization, so I think trade him for that reason, b/c the Marlins won’t be good enough during his couple more years of control, and I’m not a fan of paying pitchers more than 5 years, and kind of in general, especially when you are a team like the Marlins money-wise
If Pablo Lopez continues to make progress like he did last year, the trade would be an L for the marlins without an extension. Especially if it doesn’t help them make a playoff run. Pablo definitely helped MN get over their playoff curse, and will be there for a while.
It was an L before the trade happened. It never made sense for several reasons. The Marlins should try to trade Arraez and get a return commensurate of his stronger season, and try to salvage it that way, and hopefully it’s a return that would have made some sense if they had simply got value for Lopez to begin with, plus ideally/delusionally a little more?
So getting a top 3 2B is not great value for Pablo???
Not when the Marlins didnt need that at all whatsoever. It reminds of the awful Dee Gordon trade that was one of the worst offenses during that 2014-2017 stretch that led to having to start over
They already had a bunch of options at 2b. They traded 1 of their 2 best pitchers, and a top prospect for a guy that’s entire value requires him to hit .400, with only 1 extra year of control. They were better off extending Pablo themselves, and trying to trade him a year or 2 later than doing what they did
Just b/c Arraez is a seemingly cool dude, and he played amazing at times last year, it doesn’t make the actual logic better. Every other organization gets value in trades, but the Marlins asset management is a clown show
I explained in other posts too, what did the trade actually do for the Marlins? The team was basically what it already was, but with less depth
Wow you are ridiculous. So the Marlins didn’t need a quality bat? Do the Marlins make the playoffs without Luis? What “bunch of 2B options” on the roster are better than Luis?
They weren’t going to extend Pablo because they had a glut of starting pitchers. Someone was going to get traded and Pablo got the Marlins an All Star in return! It was what the Marlins needed.
You explained nothing in your previous post.
Roflmao
Name the guys who are as good as Luis on the Marlins?
You are missing the point, and that isn’t it. We are talking about different things
What the Yankees or Mariners would pay for a Luis Arraez, or the actual Luis Arraez. Extend, extend, extend.
Has anyone ever said they would not be open to an extension? This type of report is clock bait. The Marlins’ Peyton Burdick would be open to an extension.
Stop click blocking, bro
Click
I’d give him an extension in the neighborhood of 8 years/$170M ($2M signing bonus followed by $10.5M, $17.5M, $19.875M, $20.125M, $22.5M, $23M, $24.5M, $25M w/ $5M buyout on a $30M option w/ up to 2.5M a year in escalators)
Meaning seven years of trying to figure out how to get out of the contract.
You’ve got that right. They’re not giving a contract like that to anyone. If they follow the approach they did with Starling Marte, they’ll offer him a ridiculously lowball contract in a year or so, and when he rejects it, they’ll trade him.
It’s crazy they could have had Marte for slightly more than Soler total, but slightly less AAV, and way less than Garcia, but then signed both, when they didn’t need either, pretty much right afterwards. Thankfully they fixed Luzardo’s mechanics, but that doesn’t change the fact that entire thing was so incompetent
And Marte has regressed to the point where his contract now is nontradeable. They made the right call not giving him what the Mets did.
Who said what the Mets gave him? He wanted 4/$41 million from the Marlins. They could have kept him for that and moved him later, or actually got real value in the trade for him, instead of a guy who had been hurt multiple times, had zero mechanics and command, and needed to be super fixed. They should have got him, and more, but no. The Marlins asset management is clownery, so they kept doing those ridiculous 1 for 1 deals that made no sense, whereas everyone else gets a lot more for Marte at that point, even with him being a rental player
And he has proven to not be worth that contact! Who would trade for a 35 year old on a bad contract who just hit 248? This is simple to under.
The guy who the Marlins got in return was a former top prospect who has morphed into a very good starter. The trade worked out great for the Marlins.
Better than paying Garcia way more a couple of months later, when you didn’t need him…also, it’s already been 2 years. Could have traded him sooner in that scenario, with what would have been a bargain contract
Again, getting lucky later doesn’t make it a good trade. The value at the time of the trade was more than a guy you had to fix that was in danger of being DFAd. Nothing wrong with taking him back in the trade, but that should have been in addition to more
It really isn’t. Both are bad contracts. Neither guy adds any real value at this point of their careers.
Getting a good player in a trade isn’t luck. Especially with a staff that has done a great job developing pitchers!
My first thought is positive toward an extension for Arraez. I really hope Bendix doesn’t come to the conclusion the Marlins need to rip it all down and start again
I really don’t want Bendix to be going off too fast after joining the organization. He was number 2 on a brilliant front office team in Tampa. He is now the leader of a Front Office Team he needs to learn. Who is to be trusted in what cirumstances. This F O team has strengths. Kim was improving with time which suggests to me the Marlins FO has strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking they are better at assessing pitchers than position players, and he needs to improve the quality of position player evaluations before he can act on them.
I liked the quote from Bendix when he said learning a new organization is like drinking from a fire hose.
Just as it takes more than a great contact hitter to make a lineup. It takes more than one executive to make a great Front Office. I hope we’re on our way in both areas
Of course he’s open to it. He’s winning awards and likely just had the best season of his career. His value is sky high and the marlins are the only team that can give him a contract right now if he’s traded lol. This isn’t rocket science lol
Luis Arraez is an electrifying talent. His presence in the Marlins lineup makes it a lot more potent, sometimes in ways that can’t always be quantified. Offer him 4 yrs/$55 M and let’s get it done. Sorry, but you don’t trade a guy like this.