Nov. 22: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that while Lugo is indeed of interest to the Tigers, they prefer him on a one-year deal. Lugo is seeking a three-year guarantee this winter, per the report.
Nov. 20: The Tigers are interested in starting pitchers, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. They reportedly checked in with right-hander Lance Lynn before he got his new deal with the Cardinals and Morosi adds that free agent righty Seth Lugo is of interest to the club.
Lugo, now 34, shifted to a starting gig in 2023 after many years of working as a reliever. He took to the switch with aplomb, throwing 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts with a 3.57 earned run average. He struck out 23.2% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6% clip and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. He declined a $7.5MM player option to stick with the Padres for 2024 and MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal worth $42MM this offseason.
It’s plenty sensible that the Tigers are looking for rotation additions to make up for recent subtractions. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his deal while righty Spencer Turnbull was non-tendered, resulting in both of those players now being free agents. The remaining rotation definitely has some talent but it comes with question marks.
Lefty Tarik Skubal looked great in 2023, returning from flexor tendon surgery to put up an ERA of 2.80, but he made just 15 starts and tossed only 80 1/3 innings. Even if he can stay healthy next year, he may push himself into workload concerns, having set career high of 149 1/3 frames in 2021. Matt Manning suffered a couple of foot fractures and was also limited to 15 starts in the most recent season. His 3.58 ERA looks fine at first glance but his 15.8% strikeout rate is way below league average and he benefited from an unsustainable .214 batting average on balls in play. He tossed 133 2/3 innings in the minors in 2019 but hasn’t reached that level since. Casey Mize missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Reese Olson had a solid debut but still has barely 100 innings of major league experience. Sawyer Gipson-Long has just four big league starts. Joey Wentz, Alex Faedo and Mason Englert are on the roster but had uninspiring results in 2023. Wilmer Flores and Keider Montero recently got added to the roster but haven’t debuted in the big leagues yet. Considering all of the variability here, it makes sense for the club to consider bringing in a stabilizing force.
The club was recently connected to Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that seems like more a long shot considering he will surely require a nine-figure deal of some kind. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has been fairly cautious since taking over and there’s been little to indicate he’s planning to break from that right now. Lynn ultimately only required a one-year deal and Lugo’s next contract will be somewhat capped by his age.
Financially, there’s nothing stopping the Tigers from making whatever addition they decide upon. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll at just $74MM. The figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts had Detroit at $122MM on Opening Day in 2023 and $135MM the year before. Javier Báez is the only player under contract beyond 2024. It’s unknown exactly how much the club plans to spend this offseason but they have enough room to do a few things before they even come close to recent spending levels. If not Lugo, other pitchers that will likely sign short-term deals include Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha and many more.
I like Seth
Seth is a good guy to have but I’d prefer him in a 6 man rotation. Just because of the limited innings he has thrown.
I am astounded he’s considered worth $14M AAV….. how does valuation of relief pitchers calculate when a guy only pitches enough to accumulate 0.6 WAR and he’s potentially worth $14M a season?
He is a starter now and proved he could be last year.
Ah, I didn’t realize that- also noticed his WAR as a starter lines up with that estimated $14M AAV. Makes total sense now. Thanks.
3/42 is a wild gamble for someone his age and with limited experience pitching deep into baseball seasons. He might get that but I’d be real leery of giving him 3 years.
I was thinking I’d give him a kinda complicated deal of like 1 year/$10M w/ a $4M buyout on a player option at 2 years/$23M and a club option at 2 years/$35M and a third option if they both turn those down, for 1 year/$18M that would negate the buyout.
Similar to the deal the Blue Jays made with Chad Green.
Yeah I could see something engineered up like that. If teams were interested in Lugo @ 3/42– I don’t see why they didn’t call SDP and take him for 2/32. Id rather have that 2 year salary and give up a lotto ticket than guarantee 3 years.
Lugo didn’t have that option. It was 1 yr $7.5m player option. Wacha had the 2 yr $36m club option.
The Tigers should push hard for Yamamoto, a player of his caliber at his age won’t come around again for a long time. His prime years will line up with the Tigers’ climb back to contention
Dream on.
With our payroll at only $76m I wish the Tigers would open the pocket book and make a big splash on someone like Yamamoto. But he probably signs with the Mets or Dodgers and we end up with Lugo or Lorenzen instead.
Here’s a question I have. We all know whoever signs Yamamoto has to pay Orix a posting fee. What if he signs a 10 year deal worth $250M, but he gets an opt out clause in years 3 & 5? Does the team only have to pay Orix for the first 3 years of the contract and if he opts in after year 3, pay them for 2 additional years and so forth? I wonder how that will work?
Does it really matter?
I’d assume the pay the fee u til the opt out, then if he doesn’t they pay the remainder. Or possibly any portion(s) tied to options is held in escrow.
@Blue Baron – You’re always such a ray of sunshine!
That doesn’t answer my question. The posting fee will be significant. Does the amount matter?
It would allow teams to spread to the cash payments out over numerous years so it could be a factor for a mid-market team. A $225M contract comes with a $36M posting fee if it is a 9 year deal with no opt outs so it’s a significant amount of money to pay up front. If they can spread that out over years 1, 3 & 5, it could be more palatable.
True enough, although most or all teams don’t keep that much cash on hand and would likely finance it like a bank loan anyway.
“Does the amount matter”. The amount of money always matters my friend. Thinking that the money is irrelevant is just a bit naive.
The team would pay a posting fee based on the guaranteed amount in the contract. I am sure that would be a point of contention if he signed for 10/250 and the team only got a posting fee as if he was paid 3/75 because of an opt out clause after 3 years. Be interesting to see what happens.
I’m sure they would be willing to open the pocket book for the right player. The problem is they are not really at a point to entice players.
The last time they started bringing in free agents, they offered more years than most would ve for Pudge who was entering mid 30’s and took a chance on Magglio and his knee. They already kind of tried that approach with Baez and as we know it did not work out quite as well.
Spot on tiger ! Live and learn or don’t and then make the same mistakes over and over again ! As a reds fan – I’ve seen them throw the bulk of their payroll over the past 2 decades on negative war seasons. The contracts they offer have been terrible ! And the ones they made where the player declined for another where just as bad.
I hope they never sign another free agent over an 3 year deal and only extend team friendly’s. Be smart and compete w rays instead of Yankees
Sign Lugo and Lorenzen. Lorenzen would probably do it since he pitched his best here
Lugo would be a decent choice, if they can get him on a one year contract.
I think Harris checked in on him last year if I remember correctly. They could do worse and he has BP experience as well.
Looks like the Tigers agreed with me and were interested in a one year deal with Lugo. They should just walk away, three years is not a good idea.
After the year he just had I think there is near zero chance he’d have to settle on a 1 year deal.
There should be numerous teams interested in him for 2 years and if that is the case, then 3 years definitely isn’t out of the question.
I think 2/25m is his floor.
I can’t see paying more then 25m for two years for Lugo unless the Tigers want to over pay for his services.
First, all FAs are over pays, as 29 other teams said “Too Much!” Secondly, if the Tigers are concerned about innings, signing someone who has been a starter for one whole year isn’t going to provide that stability. Shoulda just kept Turnbull for $2MM. I wouldn’t spend the Miggy money on just one player, but they should be able to move up a level from Lugo.
I seriously wonder if Turnbull will ever throw 60 innings in season again. He seems to be made of paper and glass.
The division is seemingly being handed to the Tigers and yet no one has taken the bull by the horns…..
I see Lugo re-uniting with Bo-Mel in SF after Snell turns down the Giants offer. It’s stupid, SP should want to come to Oracle to pitch, hitters know the RF wall is fatal.
Lugo would be a good add for the Tigers, but hopefully they don’t stop there. One extra thought: it seems that the Tigers are going to employ a few guys out of the bullpen in the same vein they used Tyler Holton last year (at least that is what i have heard from tigers pundits). I wonder how much they will blur the line between SP and RP. They signed Lorenzen last year, if they get Lugo this year, then it would seem a pattern is emerging.
Would it though? Lugo established himself as a SP. I would think he can pitch deeper into the season this year. Lorenzen came off a 97 inning season when signed. I think 150 ish was his absolute inning ceiling.
I would think after 140+ innings last year that Lugo ought to be able to go with a full starter workload in 2024.
If Lugo signs for the 3/42 this site projected that would make him the second highest paid Tiger behind Baez
if they sign him for 3 million or more he would be the 3rd highest even with arbitration unless you include the Miggy buyout..
Rodgriguez is gone isn’t he? So of active players he would be the 2nd highest paid.
If Lugo signs for the 3/42 this site projected that would make him the second highest paid Tiger behind Baez
hmmm “highest paid Tiger behind Baez”
im wondering where does it say active anywhere in there …. hmmmm before tiger … maybe at the start of the sentence not there … after baez … nope … anything about current roster … not that i see. so yes the statement still applies
also if you actually read the entire comment i said if he signs for 3M or more he would be 3rd highest … UNLESS you include Miggy. which means If you did include Miggy it could be potentially 4th highest paid tiger based on what he signs for..
That comment was to point out they have no one actively on big contracts right now as anyone signed for 3M would become at minimum 3 with Baez being 1 and Canha at just a shade over 11M the next salaries are below 3M for arbitration estimates.
Just so there is no confusion ….. if they were to sign Joe Blow for 3M tonite he would be the 3rd highest paid tiger UNLESS you include Miggy buyout he could be the 4th highest paid tiger depending on salary regardless he would be the 3rd highest paid ACTIVE tiger.
Nice douchiness. I clarified you moron. Miggy is no longer a Tiger. He is an ex-Tiger. But if being a total and complete a-hole is your goal, you succeeded. You still looked like an idiot.
Who’d have thought Lance Lynn would be the pebble to start the avalanche. These teams that sought him either have low expectations of their team, didnt watch him pitch last year, or maybe just plain incompetence.
@Shelled Be Miller: How do you know Lynn will start any trend, much less “the avalanche?”
I see Lugo in Houston before I see him in Detroit
Why does it seem like there is no interest In Lorenzen?
Its early.
This is a terrible idea…for my prediction contest chances lol.
Well… he had somewhat similar stats to Erod in 2023, will cost about $6MM less per year and has less personal baggage. Bring it on!
Orioles are likely in on Lugo. They’re not playing in the Tier 1 class of pitchers, so Detroit will have competition.
I think it’s more likely that the O’s use some excess prospect capital versus signing a 34 year old starter to a 3 year deal.
The prospect capital they wish to part with isn’t bringing back a front-end starter. Holliday, Kjerstad, and Mayo are all off-limits, apparently.
I think if they sign Lugo it’s, at max, two years.
I don’t consider lugo to be a front end starter. We could absolutely trade for a comparable arm without any of those names. Joey Ortiz, Cowser, or Samuel Basallo is a top 100 prospect. There’s more than that in the system.
The way Elias runs things—I don’t think the O’s will get a guy who had front end starter results last year. It’ll be someone who he believes will get there in the right org.
Which may or may not pan out but I believe he thought Flaherty was a guy who was going to tick up here.
Didn’t happen and it won’t happen all the time. Paying sticker price for an “ace” doesn’t either though. I’m sure the Yanks wanna rip up the Rodon deal. We’ll see what happens.
Oh, neither do I, but he seems to fit the Lyles/Gibson type of signing.
I hope you’re right. A guy who comes in and blossoms into an ace would be excellent.
Aplomb is one of those words that’s highly underutilized.
I don’t think this is the year to open the checkbook. Not only are the FA’s this year nowhere near a great class, but we need to keep as many roster spots open for prospects as possible. Let the kids play this season to see what we have, then start adding FA’s in 2025 and beyond. It got frustrating watching fringe big leaguers play last year when Keith,Malloy and others were bashing Erie and Toledo.
Hard to wait when the max window is six years before defections as FAs start. Skubal, Mize, and Rogers only have 3 years left. Maybe trades will have to be the answer. Hope the Phils have what Detroit needs as DD has been the o of one willing to trade with HARRIS.
I see RSox interest in Yamamoto but with a pitcher in charge, Breslow, and the need for multiple starters–I hope they look, long and hard, to re-unite with Wacha, Wacha would have been the difference between a winning/losing season, and a second-half push to the playoffs. You don’t find a lot of pitchers that are strike throwers and can keep you in games through five innings. Chris Martin, in the Sox pen, is another strike-thrower. An inning every other day with precision. Get Wacha, install Martin as your closer, and perhaps, look to move Hanley.
I can see Lugo returning home to the Mets at 2 yrs 24 million. He should be 1 of the 3 starters they sign.
I would only be on-board with a reunion if we had a long-man who could bridge the gap to the bullpen if Lugo has short outings.
Solid depth guy…however I would like the tigers to start acting like a mid to large market team….i haven’t been a fan of the buy low approach…don’t wast the early years of Tork and Greene and Skubal…let’s get some truely good help around them…go get a MLB second baseman and a front of the line SP
No faith in Colt @ 2B?
I expect Keith to spend most of ’24 at third base. Jung with be playing second by ’25.
Wrong, Tigers don’t think Colt has the arm for 3B. He’s been moved to 2B with Jung now getting playing time at 3B. You are correct on their timelines.
Tigers need to sign some top players instead signing 1 year deals looking to flip at the deadline.
I’d try and get Maeda and Shoto Imanga as starters. They are both from Japan and Maeda could mentor Imanga. Madea would be a solid number 2 behind Skubal and Imanga is a lefty that would be great at the number 3 or 4 spot. He has great K rate and walks very few. 3 and 5 could be Manning and Mize with Olson and Gipson-Long could be depth.
The big need is offense… I would try and get Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals to play 2B. I would also try and work a deal for Santander from the Orioles. He’s a switch hitter with power. Sign Caratini as backup catcher.
Finally, I would offer Woodruf a 2 or 3 year deal just to get him in the mix for 2025.
That team would easily win the AL Central.
2B Donovan
RF Greene
LF Santander
1B Tork
DH Carpenter
SS Baez
CF Parker Meadows
3B Keith/Vierling
C Rogers/Caratini
Tigers’ brass doesn’t believe Keith’s arm is strong enough for 3B and that’s why they’ve switched him to 2B. 2B is Keith’s to lose. We’d be more likely to trade for a stop-gap 3B if they don’t intend on making Jung the opening day starter in 2024.
That’s why Donovan would be a target… he can play 3B also. Just switch Keith and Donovan if needed.
I have a feeling Keith will be fine. He hurt his shoulder and he’s had a year to recover… he might be able to play 3B. He’s 22, so he might start the year at AAA anyway. Maybe try and get Donovan and a veteran 3B like Urshela.
I think Urshela is actually realistic as a pickup for 2024 because he could probably be had on a one-year deal. Jung just won a minor league gold glove at 3B so I think they’re counting on him to be our 3B of the future. I don’t see us going out of our way to get Donovan or any other 2B. I think Keith will be fine at 2B, and we’ll still have Ibanez to back him up.
Not really. Hinch likes guys who can play multiple positions, so they want Keith to learn second base as well. But mainly, he’ll play third base.
This time of year everyone is interested in everyone.
This time of year everyone interested in everyone.
Seth Lugo. How unexciting. We miss you, Mr. I.
This is the guy the Braves should have signed, not Reynaldo.
“Tigers prefer him on a one-year deal”
I’d prefer Ohtani on a one-year deal.
Career 1.173 whip, 9.1 K/9 — Good luck on that.
I would hate to take Scottie Harris garage sailing… he would be negotiating deals listed at 50 cents. “Would you take 42 cents… how’s that sound?”
Yeah right, 42 cents. Like Chris would even allow Scott to offer a quarter. “Give him a dime and tell him to get lost.”
Only Javy Baez is under contract for next season. That is patently absurd, and it took that guy’s career falling down the cliff to not opt out. By rights there should be no Tigers signed past next season.
They aren’t Oakland bad but Detroit does know what it is like to have a well-below-mid baseball owner.
Is Julio Urias hurt? I don’t see him listed on the top free agents this year.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Urias never plays again.
Why, what happened?
He’s possibly facing felony assault charges and is expected to be suspended by a lengthy amount, which is on top of potential incarceration.
I didn’t know that. OK, that explains it. Thanks
The update added on here, that the Tigers are seeking at 1-year deal… might as well update the article’s headline to say: “Tigers have interest but zero chance of landing Lugo”
Does Marcus Stroman know he’s signing a short term deal? Thinking he’s looking for 5 years.
Wonder if the Mets try to bring him back, something like 2/24
One year deal, three year deal…he’s not going to the Tigers. I’d prefer Maeda anyway.
150 innings last year is no joke. Who knows ? Take a risk his arm holds up, but if not then you got a bad deal for 3 years. The Tigers will figure their appetite for risk, and continue to shop around.
If he was willing to take one year, he would still be a Padre. Rumors are he asked the Padres for 3/42 and they balked at that price. I always thought 2/24 was a fair price going into his age 34 season with just one year of starting under his belt after 7 years in the majors