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Reds’ Connor Overton To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Reds righty Connor Overton had, who’s been out since mid-April due to an elbow strain, had a setback in his recovery and will undergo exploratory elbow surgery to determine the root of his troubles, manager David Bell announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Olivia Ray of WLWT Cincinnati). Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer further adds that the surgery could very well end the righty’s season.

Overton, 29, appeared in six games for the 2022 Reds (four starts) and posted a sharp 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work. With just an 11.3% strikeout rate and a minuscule .204 batting average on balls in play contributing to that mark, Overton never seemed likely to sustain that level of success, but he regressed far more precipitously than the Reds had anticipated through his first three starts of the current campaign.

While Overton’s velocity remained consistent with its 2022 levels, he was clobbered for 14 runs on 19 hits (three of them homers) and seven walks in just 11 innings of work. Overton actually improved his strikeout rate a bit (to 16.4%) and more than doubled his swinging-strike rate (from 6% to 12.5%), but his elbow barked after just three starts and he’ll now face a lengthy absence.

Originally a 15th-round selection by the Marlins in the 2014 draft, Overton bounced around the league on a series of minor league deals and also played with the independent Lancaster Barnstormers before landing with the Reds, his sixth affiliated organization, prior to the 2022 season. He’s posted sharp numbers in the upper minors — 2.45 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate in 91 Triple-A innings — but has yet to find much in the way of big league success. In 59 1/3 Major League innings between the Blue Jays, Pirates and Reds, he has a 4.85 ERA with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He’ll accrue big league service and pay while on the injured list, though his chances of lasting the entire 2023-24 offseason on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster take a big hit with news of this surgery.

Overton likely would’ve gotten a lengthier look in a rotation audition this season, but he’s now out of the picture for the foreseeable future. Cincinnati also subtracted veteran righty Luis Cessa from that mix when they released him last week. Overton joins lefty Nick Lodolo on the injured list, though Lodolo, who has a stress reaction in his tibia, isn’t looking at nearly as long an absence. The Reds are currently utilizing Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, rookie Brandon Williamson, journeyman Ben Lively and veteran offseason pickup Luke Weaver in the rotation. Top prospect Andrew Abbott, who’s fanned 45.3% of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A, could get a look at some point this summer as well.

Guardians Notes: Naylor, Valera, Rotation

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The Guardians briefly added top catching prospect Bo Naylor to the big league roster as the 27th man in yesterday’s doubleheader, but he’s already been sent back to Triple-A Columbus and will continue to get regular playing time there, it seems. Cleveland’s offense is out to a dismal start to the 2023 season, and the catching corps, in particular, has been quite poor at the plate so far.

Naylor’s .257/.391/.507 slash in Triple-A Columbus is strong, but manager Terry Francona noted to Bill Ladson of MLB.com that Naylor’s throwing numbers in Columbus have been rough. He’s just 7-for-49 in cutting down base thieves this year (14.3%). Francona added that some of that could be due to minor league pitchers doing some experimenting of their own (perhaps at the cost of some quickness to the plate), it seems the organization would understandably still like to see some improvement in that aspect of his game. To his credit, Naylor had a much stronger 32% caught-stealing rate in the minors last year.

One other near-MLB-ready prospect who could come up this year in hopes of providing some offensive help will be sidelined for the second time this year. Outfielder George Valera, who missed the first seven weeks of the season due to hamate surgery, is heading back to the injured list after just five games, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. This time, the 22-year-old is dealing with a strained hamstring. It’s not yet clear how long he’s expected to miss.

Valera went 3-for-16 at the Triple-A level in his brief five-game activation between IL stints. Last year’s .221/.324/.448 output in Triple-A doesn’t immediately stand out, but that also came as a 21-year-old against much more advanced competition and was only across 179 plate appearances. Valera spent the majority of the season in Double-A Akron, where he posted a heartier .264/.367/.470 batting line. Between those two stops, he mashed 24 homers over the course of 132 games.

Valera ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at MLB.com (No. 51) and Baseball America (No. 72) heading into the season, and the organization surely hoped he could hit his way into the big league mix before too long. Health hasn’t cooperated to this point, though the Guardians have at least avoided injuries to their position player corps at the big league level.

That’s not the case on the pitching side of things, where Cleveland has faced prolonged absences for both Triston McKenzie (teres major strain) and Aaron Civale (oblique strain). McKenzie embarked on a minor league rehab assignment over the weekend and will make at least one more outing before the team considers activating him, writes Hoynes, citing Francona. The Guards are aiming to build both righties up to around five innings and 80 to 90 pitches before reinstating either from the injured list.

McKenzie’s first rehab outing lasted three innings and 52 pitches; he can’t be activated until May 29 at the earliest, due to his status on the 60-day injured list. Civale also pitched three innings in a rehab game last week.

As it stands, the Guardians only have one clear opening in the rotation. Righty Hunter Gaddis is up from Columbus to make today’s start in place of the injured Peyton Battenfield. One of McKenzie or Civale could step into that spot, but Cleveland has Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and thriving rookies Tanner Bibee and Logan T. Allen also in the rotation currently. Situations such as this tend to work themselves out — injuries are inevitable on the pitching front — but at some point it’s possible the Guards will need to make the tough call to send one of Bibee or Allen back to Columbus. Speculatively speaking, Cleveland could also look into a six-man rotation or perhaps bump a more established starter like Quantrill or Civale to the bullpen, but however it shakes out there’ll be some decisions on the pitching front in the near future.

White Sox Place Mike Clevinger On 15-Day IL

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May 22: The Sox announced that Scholtens has indeed been recalled from Charlotte to take Clevinger’s spot on the roster. They’ll go with a bullpen game against Cleveland tonight rather than giving Scholtens a conventional start, however. Right-hander Jimmy Lambert, who hasn’t pitched more than 1 2/3 innings in any outing this year, has been announced as Chicago’s starter.

May 21: The White Sox placed right-hander Mike Clevinger on the 15-day IL, retroactive to May 18, with wrist inflammation prior to today’s game against the Royals, the club announced. Clevinger was expected to start tomorrow’s game against the Guardians, but will instead be out for at least the rest of the month. He’ll be first eligible to return in early June, though there’s no clear timeline for Clevinger’s return at this time. No corresponding move has been announced, with the White Sox expecting to make a move ahead of tomorrow’s game against Cleveland.

Clevinger once appeared to be among the most promising young starters in the sport, as he posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.39 FIP over 489 1/3 innings from 2017-2020. That four year stretch of dominance saw him record a 28% strikeout rate while walking just 9% of batters he faced. Unfortunately for Clevinger, he would miss the entire 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, ultimately returning to the mound early in the 2022 campaign.

Upon his return from the surgery, Clevinger’s fastball velocity had dipped from 95.1 mph down to 93.6 mph. In addition to the lost velocity, the right-hander has seen a major dip in his production since returning to the mound, with a 4.40 ERA and 5.02 FIP in ten starts since the beginning of the 2022 campaign. Clevinger, who is in Chicago on a one-year, $12MM deal this season, is far from the only White Sox starter struggling so far in 2023, as each of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and Lance Lynn have ERAs above 4.50 this season.

While Clevinger looks to fight off his current ailment and get things back on track, the White Sox could potentially turn to Jesse Scholtens in the rotation, as the right-hander is the only other healthy starter on the 40-man roster. Scholtens, who made his MLB debut earlier this season, has a 3.00 ERA in three innings of work for the White Sox this season and a 3.99 ERA in 38 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. Other possible option include Daniel Ponce de Leon and Luke Farrell, though both would require a 40-man roster spot.

Read The Transcript: Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson

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Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!

Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.

A’s Outright Zach Neal

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The Athletics assigned right-hander Zach Neal outright to Triple-A Las Vegas after he cleared waivers, per the team’s transaction log. Neal, who was designated for assignment on Friday, does have the ability to reject the assignment and opt for free agency if he chooses.

The 34-year-old Neal appeared in a pair of games for the A’s and allowed three runs on four hits and no walks with three strikeouts through 3 1/3 innings. It’s his second stint with the A’s, with whom he also spent the 2016-17 seasons. Since departing the first time around, Neal pitched one big league inning with the Dodgers and spent three years in the rotation for the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Through 89 Major League innings, Neal carries a 5.06 ERA with one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB (11%) but also one of the best walk rates (1.9%). He’s a ground-ball pitcher who’s struggled recently in Triple-A both with the A’s and with the Rockies (in 2022). The Athletics’ rotation and bullpen have been a mess in 2023, with both groups ranking dead-last in the Majors in terms of ERA (7.26 for the starters, 6.49 for the relievers).

Oakland also currently has eight pitchers on the injured list: Paul Blackburn, Mason Miller, Drew Rucinski, Freddy Tarnok, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez, Trevor May and Kirby Snead. Given that huge slate of injuries and, more generally, the complete lack of definition on the pitching staff, Neal could work his way back to the big league roster if he pitches even decently in the upper minors.

Rangers Release Jacob Barnes

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The Rangers have released veteran right-handed reliever Jacob Barnes, per the league transaction log at MiLB.com. He’d been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock but will now be free to sign with any club.

Barnes, 33, posted good results with the Rangers organization, logging 20 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball during his time with their Round Rock club. He turned in a strong 52.3% ground-ball rate and 0.44 HR/9 mark, although his 17.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate were both more concerning.

A former 14th-round pick (2011), Barnes debuted with the Brewers in 2016 and was a mainstay in their bullpen for three seasons, compiling 147 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a quality 24.4% strikeout rate against an elevated 9.9% walk rate. His results fell off in 2019, however, and he’s bounced around six big league rosters since leaving Milwaukee (Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees). Dating back to 2019, Barnes has a 6.37 ERA in 101 2/3 frames, thanks largely to a hefty 1.59 HR/9 mark.

While Barnes has struggled with the long ball, he was averaging 95.4 mph on his heater last year, generally keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average rate (career 49%) and has frequently shown the ability to generate strikeouts at average or better rates. Barnes’ career 23.3% strikeout rate is a bit higher than the 2023 league average (22.7%), and his career 13.1% swinging-strike rate is two percentage points above the 11.1% league-average mark. In three separate seasons, he’s run that swinging-strike rate just shy of or even in excess of 15%, suggesting the potential for a well above-average strikeout rate.

It’s been a few years since Barnes has had big league success, but this year’s 2.21 ERA in Triple-A would be his highest of the past three seasons at that level. Between that run of upper-minors success, the league-wide need for bullpen depth and Barnes’ combination of velocity, whiffs and grounders, he ought to find another opportunity in his return to the open market.

The Opener: Kimbrel, Buxton, White Sox, Guardians

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With the 2023 regular season now nearly 30% complete, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Kimbrel aims for 400:

Not even two weeks after Kenley Jansen made history as the seventh player to reach 400 career saves, veteran righty Craig Kimbrel is poised to do the same. Kimbrel was long among the most dominant relievers in baseball, with a 1.91 ERA and 1.96 FIP through the first nine seasons of his career between the Braves, Padres, and Red Sox. Since then, he’s struggled to reach those same heights, with a 3.96 ERA and 3.74 FIP since the start of the 2019 season. This year, Kimbrel has a 6.35 ERA and 4.70 FIP to go along with five saves in 17 innings of work at the back of the Phillies bullpen. Over his past five appearances, he’s pitched five innings, picked up two saves and allowed just one run with a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio.

2. Buxton to be evaluated:

Twins slugger Byron Buxton was out of the lineup yesterday after being removed from Saturday’s game with knee soreness, and it seems we’ll know more about his condition today. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that, while Buxton “probably could have stayed in and battled through” the soreness, the club will know more regarding Buxton’s potential return to the lineup today. The 29-year-old Buxton, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on that right knee last September, is slashing .235/.344/.484 with a 129 wRC+ as the club’s primary DH so far this season. Top propect Edouard Julien, who started at DH in Buxton’s place yesterday, would be among those to gain some extra at-bats if Buxton misses any time.

3. Roster moves ahead of White Sox/Guardians series:

Both teams are expected to make roster moves ahead of this evening’s game between the White Sox and the Guardians. Cleveland is expected to recall right-hander Hunter Gaddis to start tonight’s game, and a corresponding move will be necessary to clear space for Gaddis on the active roster. Gaddis has struggled through 19 2/3 innings across 5 appearances in the majors this season with a 6.86 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 14.6%.

Meanwhile, the White Sox have already placed today’s expected starter, right-hander Mike Clevinger, on the injured list with wrist inflammation. No corresponding move was announced, leaving the Sox with a roster spot to fill ahead of tonight’s game. Notably, most depth starter options who could fill in for Clevinger are not yet on the 40-man roster, with the exception of Jesse Scholtens, who has a 3.99 ERA in seven starts at the Triple-A level this season.

Dodgers To Select Bobby Miller

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The Dodgers are poised to promote one of their top prospects for his major league debut, as Russell Dorsey of Stadium and Bally Sports reports that the club is selecting the contract of right-hander Bobby Miller. The club will need to clear room for Miller on both the 40-man and active rosters ahead of Tuesday night’s game against the Braves, when Miller is poised to make his major league debut.

The 24-year-old Miller was the 29th overall pick in the 2020 draft, selected by the Dodgers in the first round out of the University of Louisville. In his first season of minor league action in 2021, Miller immediately impressed with a 2.40 ERA in 56 1/3 innings split between High-A and Double-A that included a dazzling 47 inning performance at the High-A level. During his time in High-A, Miller posted a microscopic 1.91 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 5.9%.

That performance saw Miller become a consensus top 100 prospect headed into the 2022 season, where Miller saw mixed results in 112 1/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 91 innings at the Double-A level last season, Miller posted a fantastic 30.5% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk rate, though he struggled in terms of top-line results with a 4.45 ERA during that time. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, Miller largely improved as his strikeout rate ticked up to 32.9% and his walk rate fell to 7.1%, resulting in a 3.38 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. That being said, Miller allowed a whopping four home runs in that short time frame as a whopping 26.7% of his fly balls left the yard.

Miller’s uneven 2022 season did little to impact his prospect rankings, however, as he entered the 2023 as a consensus top 30 prospect in the sport. While his 2023 season has been off to a rocky start so far, with a 5.65 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 19.7% in 14 1/3 innings so far this season, the young right-hander is an incredibly talented prospect who has flashed a triple-digit fastball, making it easy to see why the Dodgers would be interested in getting their young hurler a look in the big leagues. It isn’t clear whether Miller’s first trip to the majors is expected to last beyond Tuesday night’s start, though with Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot all on the injured list, it stands to reason that this won’t be Miller’s only opportunity to impact the big league club this season.

AL Notes: Whitlock, Red Sox, McCullers, Naylor, Donaldson

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Garrett Whitlock threw 79 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start today, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Whitlock will be activated from the 15-day IL in time to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks.  Whitlock’s return won’t push anyone out of the rotation for now, as Cora said that Boston will use six starters over their six games this week, sandwiched around Thursday’s off-day.  The team will re-assess the pitching situation after this full turn through a six-man rotation, Cora said, taking advantage of another off-day on May 29 to reset the staff as necessary.

Between injuries and inconsistency, Boston has had one of the weaker rotations in baseball, though Chris Sale, James Paxton, and Brayan Bello have all been sharp lately.  Cora has said in the past that the Sox plan to keep Whitlock as a starter, leaving Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber as the potential odd men out if the club does adopt a traditional five-man pitching staff.  Houck’s secondary numbers are at least better than his 5.48 ERA would indicate, but it has been a rough season all-around for Kluber, whose ERA has ballooned to 6.26 over 41 2/3 innings after he was hit hard in tonight’s start against the Padres.  Kluber signed a one-year (plus a 2024 club option) contract worth a guaranteed $10MM in the offseason, but that deal is already looking like a misfire given the veteran’s struggles.

More from the American League…

  • The Astros believe Lance McCullers Jr. can return “probably somewhere closer to the All-Star break, or after,” GM Dana Brown said in a radio interview on SportsTalk 790 AM (hat tip to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart).  There’s still some fluidity “depending on whether we can get him built up to start,” Brown noted.  While not the clearest of timelines, it does represent some kind of target for McCullers, who hasn’t pitched this season after suffering a forearm strain early in Spring Training.  Jose Urquidy is also tentatively expected to return from the injured list around the All-Star break, which could give the Astros a badly needed one-two boost to their depleted rotation.
  • The Guardians called up Bo Naylor as the 27th man for their double-header with the Mets today, with Naylor going hitless in two plate appearances in the first game.  This was Naylor’s first call-up of the 2023 season, after the catching prospect made his MLB debut with five games in 2022.  Despite some mediocre numbers at throwing out baserunners at Triple-A this season, Naylor told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer and other reporters that “I feel I’m progressing well.  I had a lot of work at [Triple-A] Columbus on some transfer stuff.  It continues to progress every day.  As of late it’s shown pretty well.”  It remains to be seen when Naylor might get a longer look at the big league level, yet given how badly Cleveland’s offense has struggled, an argument can definitely be made that Naylor is already the best catching option in the organization.  Naylor is hitting .257/.391/.507 over 184 PA at Triple-A, while the Guards’ catching quartet of Mike Zunino, Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and David Fry are all badly struggling at the plate.
  • Now that the Yankees have designated Aaron Hicks for assignment, speculation has begun that Josh Donaldson could potentially join Hicks on the waiver wire when Donaldson is activated from the 10-day IL.  The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner looks at some of the reasons why it may be time for the Yankees to part ways with the former AL MVP, most simply the fact that DJ LeMahieu looks like a more productive third base option than Donaldson right now, and LeMahieu won’t have a regular place to play once Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton are healthy.  Even though the Yankees would have to eat the roughly $23.16MM in remaining salary owed to Donaldson, Kirschner writes that “for a team that makes as much money as the Yankees, it’s a rather minuscule amount that will make the roster fit more seamlessly if they decide it’s time to cut him loose.”

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