MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with each organization’s Offseason In Review posts. Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with Anthony Franco about the Reds’ offseason.
Archives for 2023
Zack Britton Throwing For Teams Again
Free-agent lefty Zack Britton is hosting yet another workout for teams seeking bullpen help, as first reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets will be in attendance, he adds. They’ll be joined by around seven other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds.
It’s at least the third time that Britton has auditioned for clubs this offseason. He held a broad-reaching showcase back in January and a narrower workout for six teams almost one month ago to the day. That session — reportedly attended by the Mets, Angels, Cubs, Giants, Rangers and Dodgers — either didn’t produce the big league offer Britton is said to be seeking or didn’t produce one that he found to his liking.
The Mets’ interest in Britton will take center stage, given Edwin Diaz’s likely season-ending knee surgery and the fact that Britton, not long ago, was considered to be perhaps baseball’s best reliever — just as Diaz is now. Previously, the Mets had been focused on bullpen help that had minor league options, not wanting to limit the flexibility of their relief corps with another veteran addition. Diaz’s inevitable shift to the 60-day injured list could perhaps change that calculus.
Of course, it can’t emphasized enough that it’s been several years since Britton was in peak form. The now-35-year-old lefty had his elbow scoped in March 2021, which cost him the first two months of that season. He returned in June but quickly went down with a hamstring strain that sidelined him another few weeks. The return from that balky hamstring proved similarly short-lived, as an elbow strain again sent him to the injured list.
In Sept. 2021, Britton underwent surgery to address that second elbow issue. The hope was that, like the arthroscopic procedure in March, removing some bone spurs would alleviate the issue. Instead, surgeons determined that Britton’s ulnar collateral ligament had suffered enough damage that a Tommy John surgery was required. He missed almost all of the 2022 season but did make an improbable late-September return. However, that amounted to just three games, during which time Britton walked six of nine batters faced before going back to the injured list yet again. He averaged 92.8 mph on his fastball in that time — nowhere close to the 94.9 mph he averaged during his last healthy season in 2020 (and even further from the 96.9 mph on his sinker at its peak).
From 2014-20, Britton notched a superhuman 1.84 ERA in 367 1/3 frames. He punched out 24% of his opponents against a 9.2% walk rate in that time, and Britton’s 76.2% ground-ball rate over that period cemented him as the best ground-ball pitcher since 2002, when batted-ball data of that nature began being carefully tracked. Britton posted a laughable 80% ground-ball rate in 2016 and was at 79.1% in 2015 and 77.2% in 2019 — the three highest single-season marks ever posted by a qualified pitcher.
It stands to reason that the group of clubs watching Britton throw this time around will be different in composition. Beyond the fact that there are as many as eight teams turning up this time, each of the Angels (Matt Moore), Rangers (Will Smith) and Cubs (Michael Fulmer) have all signed relievers since that time. The Cubs were still open to adding a lefty even after signing Fulmer, so they could remain in play for Britton, but both Anaheim and Texas are less clear fits following their deals with Moore and Smith.
With just two weeks until Opening Day, it’s unlikely that Britton could sign with a team and be ready to pitch by the time the season gets underway. The extent to which he’s built up isn’t known, but given that this is his third workout for teams since January, he’s clearly been on a throwing program for some time now. Even if he’s not ready come March 30, it’s feasible that he could join a big league bullpen at some point in April, health permitting.
Sergio Romo Signs Non-Roster Deal With Giants For Likely Final Appearance
Veteran reliever Sergio Romo has signed with the Giants on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to Spring Training, according to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. According to Baggarly, the plan is for Romo to pitch in the team’s Bay Bridge exhibition against the A’s at Oracle Park towards the end of Spring Training as a farewell tour for Romo, who pitched in nine seasons for the Giants and won the World Series with the club in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Though he didn’t specifically use the word “retire,” the right-hander spoke very much like someone who expects this to be a ceremonial final stop.
“I’m not coming here to make a team,” Romo tells Baggarly. “I can’t make this team right now. Mainly I’m not trying to. I like where I am in life, seeing my kids as often as I can.”
Romo’s career began in San Francisco in 2008, his age-25 season. He impressed in his debut campaign, posting a 2.12 ERA in 34 innings of work. After a difficult 2009 season where Romo’s ERA was nearly two runs higher than his FIP, he returned to form in a 2010 season that would kick off a four-year stretch of utter dominance. During that time, he posted a sterling 2.03 ERA (178 ERA+) in 225 2/3 innings while striking out 261. That four-year stretch saw Romo collect two World Series rings (one of which he earned by striking out Miguel Cabrera to end the 2012 World Series) and his sole career All-Star appearance.
The 2014 season was something of a step back for Romo, however, even as his club won its third World Series in five years. Romo posted his first below average season of his career by ERA+. His 3.72 ERA was 7% worse than league average by that metric, and unlike his difficult 2009 season, his FIP wasn’t up to his previous standards either, standing at 3.94. Fortunately, Romo would return to form as an above-average reliever for his last two seasons in a Giants uniform, posting a 2.87 ERA (137 ERA+) in 88 innings of work, with an even stronger 2.57 FIP.
Ultimately, Romo was a phenomenal reliever during his tenure with San Francisco, pitching to a 2.58 ERA (146 ERA+) in 515 games while striking out 498 and collecting 87 saves. He also pitched well in the postseason, posting a 3.06 ERA in his 23 1/3 innings of work for the Giants in the postseason, including six scoreless appearances in World Series games.
In the six years following his departure from the Giants organization, Romo would pitch for seven different organizations: the Dodgers, Rays, Marlins, Twins, A’s, and Blue Jays. Despite those years accounting for his mid-to-late thirties, Romo was still a league average reliever during that time, with his 4.20 ERA over those 283 innings translating to an ERA+ of exactly 100.
In the event that this marks the end of his career, Romo, who celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this month, will have appeared in 821 regular season games while finishing 301 over his decade and a half tenure in the major leagues, with a 3.21 career ERA. He also racked up 137 saves and 204 holds along the way.
Cade Cavalli To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo announced today in a press release that right-hander Cade Cavalli has a grade 3 UCL sprain and will require Tommy John surgery, meaning Cavalli will miss the entire 2023 season.
Cavalli, 24, figured to be a member of the Nationals starting rotation this year after making his big league debut in a single start last August before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation. While he struggled mightily in that start (seven earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings), Cavalli was among not only Washington’s top prospects, but among the best prospects in the game, with most services considering him a top 60 prospect in the sport. Instead of joining fellow youngsters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore as they make their cases as rotation arms of the future for the rebuilding Nationals, Cavalli will spend the entire 2023 season rehabbing and likely not return to the mound until sometime during the 2024 season.
Cavalli rocketed through the minor leagues in his first professional season in 2021, dominating in High-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA for 40 2/3 innings before moving up to Double-A, where he continued to excel with a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings before hitting a wall following a promotion to Triple-A. At the Triple-A level in 2022, Cavalli was torched to the tune of a 7.30 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Though a .397 BABIP indicated some bad luck, his 4.54 FIP still indicating pronounced struggles relative to his dominance of lower levels of the minors.
In 2022, Cavalli returned to Triple-A and looked more like himself, hurling 97 innings with a 3.71 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Those numbers came with a 25.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate, and just three home runs allowed. Cavalli grew more impressive as the season wore on, with a sterling 1.47 ERA across seven minor league starts in July and August ahead of his big league call-up at the end of the month.
With Cavalli shelved for 2023, the Nationals seem likely to rely on either non-roster invitee Chad Kuhl to round out their Opening Day rotation. Kuhl, 30, has been a below average starter for his career, posting a 4.74 ERA (91 ERA+) in 576 2/3 innings of work with the Pirates and Rockies. That being said, he provides a steady veteran presence at the back of a rotation that’s rather young outside of Patrick Corbin. If the Nationals wish to have other arms still in camp compete with Kuhl for the fifth rotation spot, there are a couple of options remaining. Wily Peralta could be stretched out in the final weeks of Spring Training, as he has ample starting experience despite being used in short relief this spring, and Paolo Espino made 19 starts for the Nationals last year, pitching to a 4.84 ERA in 113 1/3 innings.
Should Kuhl begin the year in the rotation, that leaves youngster Joan Adon, who was recently cut from big league camp by the Nationals, as the likely top depth option. Adon made 14 starts for the Nationals last year, though he pitched to a disastrous 7.10 ERA (55 ERA+) in his 64 2/3 innings of work. Another option would be right-hander Cory Abbott, who was cut along with Adon but pitched 48 innings for the Nationals last year in a swing role that saw him start nine games.
Manager Davey Martinez has indicated he’s comfortable with the club’s existing rotation depth, even without Cavalli. That said, in the event the Nationals wish to look for additional rotation depth following Cavalli’s injury, the pickings are fairly slim on the free agent market at this point, with the likes of Chris Archer, Michael Pineda, and former National Anibal Sanchez among the remaining options.
The Opener: WBC, Diaz, Offseason In Review
With just two weeks to go until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. WBC Update
The first round of the World Baseball Classic is officially in the books, with Cuba, Italy, Japan, Australia, Mexico, the United States, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico advancing to the quarterfinals, which have already begun. Cuba defeated Australia yesterday to advance to the semifinal round, while Japan advanced past Italy this morning. While no other matches will happen today, the other two quarterfinal matchups are now set, with Team Mexico squaring off against Team Puerto Rico tomorrow night while Team USA is set to take on Team Venezuela Saturday night. Of course, the biggest story of the WBC yesterday followed Puerto Rico’s upset victory that sent home the tournament favorites from the Dominican Republic.
2. Diaz Injury Update Incoming
That story is Edwin Diaz’s right knee injury, which he seemingly suffered during the celebration of Team Puerto Rico’s victory last night. The Mets announced last night that Diaz will undergo additional imaging today after receiving x-rays last night, meaning an update on Diaz could be coming as soon as later this morning. Until then, it’s unknown how much time Diaz will miss, though sources have told ESPN’s Jeff Passan that they fear Diaz is set to miss significant time. If Diaz misses significant time, that will obviously be a massive blow to the Mets’ bullpen, as Diaz is widely seen as the best closer in the entire sport.
3. Offseason in Review Chat Today
In conjunction with yesterday’s Reds Offseason in Review, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a Reds-centric live chat with readers today at 2pm CT. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat once it begins, or allow you to read the transcript once it’s complete. Be sure to check back throughout the day so you don’t miss Anthony’s chat!
Edwin Diaz Helped Off Field With Right Knee Injury
Star reliever Edwin Díaz was carted off the field after tonight’s World Baseball Classic contest. The Mets closer threw a perfect inning to save Puerto Rico’s 5-2 win over the Dominican Republic and injured his right knee while the team celebrated its victory on the mound (video provided by Fox Sports MLB). The Mets announced he’s going for further imaging on Thursday.
Díaz was helped off the field by trainers without putting weight on his right leg. He was helped into a wheelchair and taken off the field in a surreal scene, one which turned from jubilation for the Puerto Rican players and fanbase into dismay. Players from both teams were visibly distraught by the injury, with Díaz’s younger brother Alexis Díaz breaking down in tears as Edwin was taken off the field.
Obviously, it’s far too soon to know the extent of the injury. Marly Rivera of ESPN tweets that Díaz was evaluated at the stadium by an on-site orthopedic specialist. Andy Martino of SNY tweets that he also went in for x-rays on Wednesday night.
Needless to say, a serious injury to Díaz would be a massive blow for the Mets. The 28-year-old righty is the sport’s best reliever. He’s coming off one of the greatest relief seasons in recent memory, throwing 62 innings of 1.31 ERA ball while striking out more than half his opponents. The Mets retained him this offseason on a five-year, $102MM contract days before the start of free agency. That marked the largest commitment to a relief pitcher in MLB history.
Astros Notes: Gurriel, McCullers, Bullpen
As Yuli Gurriel’s free agency lingered into the late stages of the offseason, many Astros fans wondered whether there might be potential for a reunion between the two parties. Houston GM Dana Brown candidly acknowledged last month that while the organization loved Gurriel as both a person and a player, it would be difficult to get him at-bats with the current construction of the roster, however. Gurriel, who signed a minor league deal with the Marlins last week, spoke further about his former team’s interest — or lack thereof — in an interview with Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros, according to Gurriel, never made an offer for him to return for an eighth season.
The 38-year-old Gurriel told Young that “leaving my teammates behind after seven years is something that truly affects you” but added that he’s looking forward to starting a new chapter with a new club. The Astros, of course, signed Jose Abreu to a three-year contract early in the offseason, apparently deciding that it was simply time to move on from Gurriel after a down year in 2022.
More on the ’Stros…
- Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., who’ll open the season on the injured list due to a forearm strain, says he’s been cleared to resume lifting weights and throwing a baseball (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). McCullers started a throwing program on Saturday and is playing catch every other day. He’ll sit down with the training staff at some point over the next week and map out a more concrete plan to ramp up for a return, assuming the light throwing and lifting he’s doing right now continue to proceed without issue. A forearm strain also limited McCullers to just eight regular-season starts in 2021, and he missed the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. When healthy, he has of course been a highly productive pitcher, evidenced by a 3.39 ERA over his past 393 1/3 MLB frames, dating back to 2018. McCullers is entering the second season of a five-year, $85MM contract extension that was signed two years ago (nearly to the day). Top prospect Hunter Brown is expected to open the season in Houston’s rotation in his place.
- Manager Dusty Baker said this week that southpaw Parker Mushinski is “probably not” going to be ready in time for Opening Day, Young writes in a separate piece. The 27-year-old has been out with back spasms and has yet to pitch in a spring game. He allowed three runs in 7 1/3 frames during last year’s MLB debut after pitching to a 2.66 ERA in 40 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball. Fellow lefty Blake Taylor has also been sidelined due to elbow troubles, and while he’s on a throwing program, he’s not even a lock to get into a spring game. That pair of injuries could create an opportunity for February waiver claim Matt Gage to open the season in the Houston bullpen. The Astros don’t have another lefty on the roster, though Austin Davis is in camp as a non-roster invitee after agreeing to a minor league deal over the winter. Gage has thrown five shutout innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio this spring. Davis has tossed five innings of one-run ball but walked six along the way.
The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma
Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.
Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.
Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.
That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.
Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.
With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.
As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.
Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.
Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).
Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.
Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.
Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.
To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.
It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.
Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.
It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.
Jake Odorizzi To Begin Season On Injured List
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed reporters this afternoon that right-hander Jake Odorizzi will start the season on the injured list (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). General manager Chris Young had indicated last week that was a possibility, as Odorizzi has been delayed in camp by arm fatigue.
Acquired from the Braves at the start of the offseason, Odorizzi initially looked ticketed for a back-of-the-rotation spot in Arlington. The veteran hurler was squeezed out of the starting five by Texas’ subsequent moves, as the Rangers added each of Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi on multi-year free agent deals. With Martín Pérez returning via the qualifying offer to join Jon Gray, the Rangers go into the season with a high-upside starting five.
Each of deGrom, Heaney, Eovaldi and Gray has had recent red flags from a health perspective, however. No team goes through the same five starters through an entire season but the Rangers are taking on as much health risk from their rotation as any club. That makes depth of particular importance.
Odorizzi’s absence will deal an early hit to that group. It doesn’t seem there’s huge concern but Bochy told reporters the club would be “cautious” with his build-up. He has still yet to get into a Spring Training game. The club hasn’t provided much of a timetable for when he might get on the mound.
In the interim, Dane Dunning and Glenn Otto figure to move up a peg in the rotation hierarchy. Dunning is a solid sixth starter in his own right. He’s been a rotation fixture in Texas for two years, including 29 starts of 4.46 ERA ball with an excellent 53.3% ground-ball rate last season. He’s provided the club with serviceable back-of-the-rotation innings for consecutive seasons since being acquired from the White Sox for Lance Lynn. Otto has had a little tougher go at the MLB level, serving up a 4.64 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk rates through 135 2/3 innings last year.
Both Dunning and Otto have multiple minor league option years remaining. They can either continue to work as starters at Triple-A Round Rock or open the season in Arlington as long relief options. Grant writes that both deGrom and Eovaldi are expected to be on pitch limits early in the season — unsurprising caution for pitchers who each started camp a little slowly thanks to minor discomfort — so the ability to work multiple innings out of the bullpen could give Dunning or Otto a leg up on an Opening Day roster spot.
Phillies Dealing With Injuries To Pitching And Catching Depth
The Phillies announced a batch of injuries to reporters, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic (Twitter links). Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez and right-hander Nick Nelson have both been shut down, due to triceps soreness and a moderate hamstring injury, respectively. Catcher Garrett Stubbs is headed for an MRI on his sore right knee while fellow backstop Rafael Marchán hasn’t played in eight days and can’t currently hit due to a bruised right hamate.
Sánchez, 26, has made just 22 major league appearances thus far in his career, but he notched a strong 3.14 ERA in Triple-A last year. He struck out 24.4% of batters faced at that level, walked just 8.4% and got grounders at a very strong 62% clip.
As of a few weeks ago, he wasn’t expected to be a key piece of the club’s rotation, but some recent developments have thinned out the club’s depth in that department. Andrew Painter has been shut down with a UCL sprain while Ranger Suárez has been dealing with some forearm tightness. Painter will be shut down for four weeks, taking him out of consideration for the Opening Day rotation. Suárez, meanwhile, has been throwing but it’s still unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of the season. Gelb also relays that the club is encouraged by his progress but his overall timelines are still murky.
The club should still have a strong front of their rotation, with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker taking three spots. Bailey Falter previously seemed like he would have to compete with Painter for a spot but that’s no longer the case, likely pushing him into the mix. The fifth spot could go to Suárez if he’s healthy enough to take it. If not, Sánchez would have been in the mix to jump in there but that’s probably not on the table any longer. The club hasn’t provided a timeline on his expected absence but the fact that he has been shut down from throwing with just two weeks until Opening Day isn’t encouraging.
If none of Painter, Suárez or Sánchez are available, the Phils have Michael Plassmeyer and James McArthur on their 40-man roster. Arthur has yet to reach Triple-A and only made 13 Double-A starts last year due to injury. Plassmeyer has two big league appearances and tossed 128 1/3 Triple-A innings last year with a 4.21 ERA.
In the case of Nelson, he was going to be in the mix for a job in the club’s bullpen. He tossed 68 2/3 innings for the club last year with a 4.85 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 11.8% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate. It doesn’t seem as though his injury is too severe, though he’s been shut down for the moment. As a reliever, he’ll have an easier time getting back into game shape than a starter like Sánchez.
In terms of the catching situation, those two ailments are noteworthy for the club since they have just three backstops on their 40-man roster. J.T. Realmuto has a lock on the starting job but the Phils will need a backup. Stubbs and Marchan would be the likely candidates for such a job, since they are the other two on the roster, but they are both question marks now due to these setbacks.
Stubbs, 30 in May, was acquired from the Astros prior to the 2022 campaign and ended up having a nice season as Realmuto’s backup. He got into 50 games and hit .264/.350/.462 for a wRC+ of 128. He was recently participating in the World Baseball Classic for Team Israel but departed when this knee issue popped up. Marchan, 24, only has 23 games of big league experience and was likely ticketed for more time in the minors behind Realmuto and Stubbs.
At this point, the path forward for both players is still unclear but there are concerns in both cases. Stubbs’ injury is significant enough to require an MRI while Marchan has already been out of action for over a week. Even if he suddenly heals up, he’ll need some time to get back into game shape. If the Phils eventually need someone else to step up and take on the backup job, they have a few catchers in camp as non-roster invitees, including Aramis Garcia and John Hicks.
