Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park. With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.
Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control. Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects. It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers. Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.
Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster. However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency. Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”
This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance. Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.
One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023. That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.
This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga. Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations. However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.
The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.” Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.
There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023. That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.
Rafaela for Edward Cabrera
Would Miami take Duran for Cabrera?
Not enough
Clubs have overpriced starting pitching by wanting them to throw as hard as they can instead teaching how to actually pitch. Also get rid of arm protection that allows the hitter to take over the inside part of the plate. Such always was the pitcher’s. As for Cabrera, I haven’t seen enough of him. Can he pitch in a hitter’s park? Finally, it does make sense for the Sox to not go after players on expiring contracts when the team is unlikely to compete in 24.
Baseball Trade Values does give Duran and his 5 years of control much more value than they give Cabrera.
Baseball Trade Values gave equal values for Andrew Vaughan and Mookie Betts 2 years ago.
Susannah – Great post, crazy how those obsessed with analytics thinks that website is some kind of authority.
But they keep helping it make money by promoting it, which is exactly what it wants.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Is this place the authority for rumors and that’s why you come to make them money? Relax, the internet is more than BTV and MLBTR.
Stop with the baseball trade value simulator. It is not accurate.
York – The difference is, I don’t see anyone using the MLBTR staff’s opinions to support their arguments.
To me if someone can’t support their viewpoint without using some website’s formulas, then it’s a weak viewpoint.
LOL! MLBTR uses BR and Fangraphs websites to make arguments of opinions and people do post MLBTR links on social media. I personally prefer evaluating pitchers with FRA, but that’s my perspective that I post here.
The thing to do with BTV valuations is just ask yourself: if the players current contract were up for sale, and every team in baseball could bid on it, how much would it go for? If for example any team could buy the rights to Bobby Witt Jr.’s next 4 seasons, before he hits free agency, what do you think teams would pay for it? On BTV he is listed at $85 million, which seems pretty reasonable to me.
Now, is it an authority for all trade related discussions? No.
That’s because Mookie makes $30mill and Vaughn was making league minimum. Contracts matter.
Right. I should instead trust the random Internet self-proclaimed experts.
As I posted earlier, a starter is “overvalued” simply because of “man-made” need. I’m even expecting Boras to take credit…
Great post, crazy how those obsessed with analytics thinks that website is some kind of authority.
But they keep helping it make money by promoting it, which is exactly what it wants.
I haven’t found that the BTV crowd and the analytics crowd hang out in the same circle all that much.
BTV is like so many other tools.. It is used to get a baseline value. It kind of leads people in the direction of whether or not a matchup is reasonable.
I can’t speak for others, buts it’s nice for the relatively uniformed to have a guide. Not everyone out there has the inclination to deep dive on player value. It serves a purpose.
Of course they do, but for “trade values” they do not.
That’s not a great post at all. You are biased because Betts used to be with the Red Sox.
It’s the best site around to value players for potential trades. If you create a better one I will be sure to visit it.
No trade value site can properly value players with under 1 yr service time, especially one that can’t use neutral non-opinion based input, which, doesn’t really exist for milb players to predict their mlb output the way playing mlb competition does.
For some red sox context, it’s why their current farm is ranked anywhere from 2nd to 16th right now. Opinions differ on prospects, and thus, prospect level players, or, as I said, those without much service time (aka small sample sizes) really can’t be trusted.
I am an anti-Red Sox fan, btw. 🙂
I do not think anyone would have traded Andrew Vaughn for Mookie Betts two years ago.
Let’s get philosophical then…
If you say you’re an anti-red sox fan, then you must LOVE what ownership and the front office have done to the team over the past 5 offseasons and trade windows.
But if that’s the case, then you in fact, must be a fan of Henry, Bloom, and the direction of the Red Sox. Which then makes you their fan.
Interesting conundrum. It’s OK to feel dirty and now hate a piece of yourself, i’ll forgive you.
Betts had and still has a giant contract that’s why he doesn’t have a ton of trade value. Now he’s played amazing the last couple years and that’s why his trade value has went up. But right after tue Dodgers signed him they basically paid market value for his services. So why would he have a lot of trade value?
You don’t get it. Salary matters. Vaughn was making league minimum.
York – Obviously you must write for the site but the articles are written by people who have no clue what’s going on. They say things the marketing department shares with them they don’t think for themselves.
The Witt GUESS is just that. It’s NOT a legitimate VALUE it’s a poorly constructed guess by stat nerds not baseball people.
Have you ever heard of the concept of replacement value in trades? None of the sites you’ve mentioned do.
Thus, no credibility.
Ketch – It’s not that simple. The contract defines costs and length of time but not value. Value is a guess.
ANYONE guessing Mookie as an elite player to be even close to Andrew Vaughn is an absolute fool. Vaughn has been a huge disappointment and Betts has been a top 5 player since 2018. Contracts don’t matter when it comes to talent.
TALENT MATTERS. Betts has it coming out of his ears and Vaughn wishes he had talent like Betts. If you paid Vaughn ONE PENNY that still wouldn’t make him as valuable as BETTS.
Joel P – the site is a joke. You should join the site and do estimates. It would improve theirs!!
GA = Exactly. All Future Value estimates are just that ESTIMATES. There are a million ways to guess future value and nobody has the ONE RIGHT WAY because nobody accurately predicts the future regularly. Thus, the sites are no better than you or me guessing future value.
Trending can be effective but it is almost equally as ineffective as guessing. There is no ONE WAY to figure out what someone will do in the future. Look how far off experts have been on Vlad Guerrero Jr.
There is a very key factor people neglect to include when evaluating the future of players. Do I have them on my dynasty fantasy baseball team. If I do, you can down grade any prediction significantly!! I’ve ruined the careers of Ben McDonald, Brien Taylor, Wander Franco in baseball. I’ve taken Brady in the one year he got hurt, I took Rodgers this past year and Adrian Pederson the year he got hurt in the first game of the season.
These are all outside factors nobody can account for but they are consistent!!!
So EVERYONE should learn how to evaluate players themselves and use the other data as input. Recognize the techniques used by sites proclaiming to know the best value for any baseball data item is full of crap. Also, beware of the key words Facts and Estimates. Real data that actually happens in a game is a fact. An Estimate is any data presented to the public by companies like Stat Cast and Fan Graphs that suggests a projection of past data. Projections or estimates are GUESSES. If the formula behind the estimate selects something close to the right answer this time it won’t the next time. Nobody knows the future.
GA – Best philosophical argument I’ve read in years!!! Outstanding!!!
Joel P – You don’t understand baseball.
Trade value is about VALUE not COST. Betts far above his cost so he’s worth 10 Vaughns or other schmucks who are cheap and providing value slightly above their cost.
NET VALUE is all that matters.
it’s really unlikely they compete when they aren’t even trying to apparently, all the hate of bloom but at least he tried to put a competitive team on the field, breslow is as worthless as a GM or whatever his title is, as he was out of the pen, what a stupid hire, maybe they’ll pull a 2013 and surprise everybody but the bottom line is we are a worse team today then we were at the end of last year
@Trollfree
Unless you’re working for one of the teams offices, no one on here knows the value to the team in a trade. Different teams have different values of players. Look at Cashman and all his so-called prospects that he saves till it’s too late. How many of them turned out to be mega stars? Really, none of them but that’s the value of prospects and other teams have to decide if they value them enough or not.
Replacement value is a bit overused on here. You’ll never replace a Juan Soto or a Corbin Burnes with prospects. Plus, replacement value assumes that the player is a top level AAA player, which there are not a lot of in the first place in the minors.
There is no conundrum. The Red Sox have been rather forgettable recently and have not paid any attention. Don’t bother. I am also an anti-fan of the Yankees. 🙂
What a long winded pile of nonsense trollfree. Good gosh you typed a heck of a lot of words to say absolutely nothing.
Old – This place is 95% presentation of facts (which they do an awesome job with) and 5% opinions.
Both BR and FG have plenty of old fashioned stats that MLBTR and everyone else uses, including me.
Does MLBTR ever judge trades based on crap formulas like BTV? I haven’t seen it, ever.
The worst part about things like BTV and WAR is they are misused, flawed, and take away fans’ ability to utilize their own critical thinking ability. Such as the fact WAR doesn’t take into consideration context, which means a 2-run homer down 12 runs in the 7th inning off a crap reliever is “valued” just as much as a 2-run homer in the 12th inning against an elite closer.
WAR is the best at what it is and attempts to do.
Same with the trade values website.
This is a rumor site. They should work with the trade value website. People like yourself need to open your mind. You don’t have a better way.
Ketch – Okay, humor me then. Does BTV adjust a player’s trade value according to the team he could be traded to?
In other words, at least half of all MLB teams didn’t want Mookie not because they didn’t VALUE his ability but because they simply couldn’t afford to pay his salary.
Why would a team’s inability to afford a player’s salary impact his value? Obviously there are many teams that did value him very highly and COULD afford to pay his salary..
Contracts matter ONLY to teams unwilling or unable to afford them.
Ketch – If you think jobs are always filled by the most intelligent people, you are sadly mistaken.
Do you even know the difference between knowledge and intelligence?
Betts actually was traded fella. It’s not hypothetical that actually happened.
He has a gigantic contract. Every team in baseball would have to think twice about taking that contract on.
You are mad because you are a Red Sox fan so you have a bias towards Betts and everything involved with him.
elmedius – I have though. It’s all formulas/calculations/numbers no matter how you look at it.
Go to any party, the baseball folks will be talking baseball not ISO or BAbip or rOBA. And the analytics/BTV folks have their own little group because they follow the numbers not the game.
foppert – That’s fair. If someone who doesn’t follow baseball wants to know who the best players in MLB are, looking at a list of top WAR players would be one way of getting an idea.
Yes both WAR and BTV serve a purpose, but not so much for the hardcore fans of the game.
Susannah – You a Twins fan by chance? Any ties to Minnesota?
Most people who follow baseball don’t watch every single game for every single team. I am pretty sure nobody on the planet does that. That’s why we have WAR. Because WAR is better than your eye test and it’s definitely better than the eye test when you aren’t actually watching.
Joel – That’s bullsquat. Several players with massive contracts have been easily moved to other teams, including ARod and Stanton.
When it comes to superstar players, there are ALWAYS teams willing to trade for them regardless of their contract.
Stanton was traded twice and vetoed the deal both times to the Giants and the Cardinals. Then the Yankees stepped in and the Marlins had to pay some of his salary. And Stanton was coming off a freaking MVP season!!!!
Thats easy?????
No that’s a perfect example of why guys with giant contracts don’t have a lot of trade value. Stanton had negative trade value dude that was proven. And again he WAS THE FREAKING MVP!!!
Let’s see…Henry owns the Globe and uses Speier to trial balloon potential moves for the fan base. Clever but unless they pull it off (at least one controllable starter) this may backfire with another last place finish which will only accelerate their attendance and rating declines.
Old York – Replacement value seems to be a point of confusion for you.
You’ll never replace a Juan Soto. Exactly so why would someone who has a generational player trade them? It’s moronic. You cut all the $10MM guys and get $1MM guys and you keep Soto. Using Cashman as an example is like suggesting an action by Cora as an example. They are both idiots who have no clue how to do their jobs.
Here is how replacement value works to the betterment of the Large and Small market teams.
If BOSTON a big market team has quality prospects with upside and control and MILWAUKEE has Burnes who will become too expensive to keep after 2024 then Boston trades several prospects for Burnes if they can get Burnes and he is willing to accept a new contract for 2024 to 2028. Boston adds an ace that they don’t have and Milwaukee doesn’t get a draft pick compensation for Burnes.
Milwaukee ONLY breaks even if they can get prospects that will exceed league average for multiple years of their control because at the end of their control the good prospects will again be too expensive so they will be dealt for more prospects. Will Mayer be above league average? I say no BUT most people believe he will be so use his pretender status as a gold chip prospect going to MIL. Will Yorke be another gold Chip prospect? Probably not but he’s got some value. Bleis has recently been in the top 100 so he is worth slightly less than Mayer. Three prospects that have all been in the top 100 in the last two years. Milwaukee loses their #1 SP and roughly $16MM in costs but they add three prospects who are controllable until 2030 and will cost roughly $2MM in 2024. They shave $14MM from the payroll and add a future SS, 2B and OF that have all been in the top 100.
The evaluation of the trade gets reviewed like this:
Burnes new 5 year deal is at $26MM a year (just a guess we could use any number). Does he perform during the 5 years at a value greater than $26MM. To know if he does you must compare him to other SPs making similar money to establish a baseline value target. Once established you have a yardstick for measuring his success. Then you go to the three prospects and see which ones contribute MORE than a league average contribution while costing under $1MM per year. That is the positive contribution that is made to Milwaukee. If any of the three become all-stars then MIL wins the deal. If they all are league average during their control years then BOS wins the deal.
Remember when evaluating the deal you ONLY count the years at the MLB level. The new CBA has expanded the years of control but there are ways to shorten it as a prospect. The 2030 Free Agency could be moved up if the player wins ROY. All this needs to be counted in the value of the prospects during their control years no matter how long it takes for them to arrive. If it’s a long time, then the time value of their costs need to be added into the equation.
In the end, trades should never be driven by website data suggesting future value of players. That’s as bad as suggesting a player with more range is better than one with less range without considering their fielding percentage. The data is irrelevant just like the suggested values from these sites. If you designed their formula and believe it’s correct then use it. If you are trusting them, don’t. Trust your knowledge of the game more.
Joel P – Thanks for the short but ignorant response to my nothingness. If you spend some time studying the game it will make sense. Good luck with your baseball education.
Great post, crazy how those obsessed with analytics thinks that website is some kind of authority.
But they keep helping it make money by promoting it, which is exactly what it wants.
Exactly. All Future Value estimates are just that ESTIMATES. There are a million ways to guess future value and nobody has the ONE RIGHT WAY because nobody accurately predicts the future regularly. Thus, the sites are no better than you or me guessing future value.
Trending can be effective but it is almost equally as ineffective as guessing. There is no ONE WAY to figure out what someone will do in the future. Look how far off experts have been on Vlad Guerrero Jr.
There is a very key factor people neglect to include when evaluating the future of players. Do I have them on my dynasty fantasy baseball team. If I do, you can down grade any prediction significantly!! I’ve ruined the careers of Ben McDonald, Brien Taylor, Wander Franco in baseball. I’ve taken Brady in the one year he got hurt, I took Rodgers this past year and Adrian Pederson the year he got hurt in the first game of the season.
These are all outside factors nobody can account for but they are consistent!!!
So EVERYONE should learn how to evaluate players themselves and use the other data as input. Recognize the techniques used by sites proclaiming to know the best value for any baseball data item is full of crap. Also, beware of the key words Facts and Estimates. Real data that actually happens in a game is a fact. An Estimate is any data presented to the public by companies like Stat Cast and Fan Graphs that suggests a projection of past data. Projections or estimates are GUESSES. If the formula behind the estimate selects something close to the right answer this time it won’t the next time. Nobody knows the future.
Cabrera was 0-7 with 5.98 ERA away from Marlins park in 2023. When will people understand pitchers in Miami have skewed stats? Just as Trevor Story is mediocre away from Coors, home field plays.
I wouldn’t trade Duran straight-up for Cabrera, but the matchup is pretty good. Cabrera, besides have poor road stats, has a career BB9 of 5.4 and had a 6.0 in 2023.
Thank you both. Ball parks and fanbase matters. No guarantees but a good projector.
Joe – That’s why you aren’t a GM. Cabrera for Duran is not a good deal. Cabrera can’t throw strikes and hasn’t been able to for 7 years!!! NO THANK YOU!!
Is he a SP1 or SP2? Nope. Is he better than Pivetta our SP 6 at this point? NOPE. Does Duran have the potential to be an all-star? YEP.
They need to make a deal like the Royals did last season when they got Cole Ragans from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman.
That’s better than Rafaela
fitted54 – WHAT? Cedanne Rafaela is the best athlete on the team who can play the big RF in Fenway with his cannon arm and great speed. He hits for average and steals bases. At 22 he has more to learn about the strike zone but he offers more than any other prospect in the organization as of today. I expect Anthony to team up with him by end of year as the two bright stars of Boston’s future.
Nope
Replacement value seems to be a point of confusion for you.
You’ll never replace a Juan Soto. Exactly so why would someone who has a generational player trade them? It’s moronic. You cut all the $10MM guys and get $1MM guys and you keep Soto. Using Cashman as an example is like suggesting an action by Cora as an example. They are both idiots who have no clue how to do their jobs.
Here is how replacement value works to the betterment of the Large and Small market teams.
If BOSTON a big market team has quality prospects with upside and control and MILWAUKEE has Burnes who will become too expensive to keep after 2024 then Boston trades several prospects for Burnes if they can get Burnes and he is willing to accept a new contract for 2024 to 2028. Boston adds an ace that they don’t have and Milwaukee doesn’t get a draft pick compensation for Burnes.
Milwaukee ONLY breaks even if they can get prospects that will exceed league average for multiple years of their control because at the end of their control the good prospects will again be too expensive so they will be dealt for more prospects. Will Mayer be above league average? I say no BUT most people believe he will be so use his pretender status as a gold chip prospect going to MIL. Will Yorke be another gold Chip prospect? Probably not but he’s got some value. Bleis has recently been in the top 100 so he is worth slightly less than Mayer. Three prospects that have all been in the top 100 in the last two years. Milwaukee loses their #1 SP and roughly $16MM in costs but they add three prospects who are controllable until 2030 and will cost roughly $2MM in 2024. They shave $14MM from the payroll and add a future SS, 2B and OF that have all been in the top 100.
The evaluation of the trade gets reviewed like this:
Burnes new 5 year deal is at $26MM a year (just a guess we could use any number). Does he perform during the 5 years at a value greater than $26MM. To know if he does you must compare him to other SPs making similar money to establish a baseline value target. Once established you have a yardstick for measuring his success. Then you go to the three prospects and see which ones contribute MORE than a league average contribution while costing under $1MM per year. That is the positive contribution that is made to Milwaukee. If any of the three become all-stars then MIL wins the deal. If they all are league average during their control years then BOS wins the deal.
Remember when evaluating the deal you ONLY count the years at the MLB level. The new CBA has expanded the years of control but there are ways to shorten it as a prospect. The 2030 Free Agency could be moved up if the player wins ROY. All this needs to be counted in the value of the prospects during their control years no matter how long it takes for them to arrive. If it’s a long time, then the time value of their costs need to be added into the equation.
In the end, trades should never be driven by website data suggesting future value of players. That’s as bad as suggesting a player with more range is better than one with less range without considering their fielding percentage. The data is irrelevant just like the suggested values from these sites. If you designed their formula and believe it’s correct then use it. If you are trusting them, don’t. Trust your knowledge of the game more.
Tell me something I don’t know.
After 2 straight years watching a AAA team at best with lots of money do nothing.
Looks like another basement finish team this year
Ive canceled my trip to see them
Also put on hold MLB
Sox – I totally agree, as of now. I’m still holding out hope.
But I hafta admit, Mark’s belief that “an argument could be made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023” is totally inappropriate. It’s lewd, lascivious, salacious, outrageous.
So far they have subtracted a great deal of offensive production in Turner and Duvall and replaced them with O’Neill and Grissom. They have subtracted two starting pitchers (Paxton and Sale) who were very good over periods of time last year and can be dominant if they stay healthy, and replaced them with a guy whose has a 5-ish ERA over the past two years. On top of that, they still have only one LHR in Bernardino.
That is NOT LOOKING BETTER no matter how you slice it! If it’s true they are not serious about Snell, Monty or Burnes and they don’t land Soler or re-sign Turner or Duvall and they don’t acquire a quality lefty reliever, then buckle up folks …. the franchise will be descending into a whole new level of shame and RSN will make their feelings heard loud and clear.
what a perfect summarization of where the Sox are right now. You nailed it perfectly with this post
The difference is, I don’t see anyone using the MLBTR staff’s opinions to support their arguments.
To me if someone can’t support their viewpoint without using some website’s formulas, then it’s a weak viewpoint.
Randy – Thank you! I was very optimistic to start the offseason, but that optimism is dwindling. It’s starting to look like they lied again … I hate liars!
Spot on fever and O’Neil is a platoon player at this point. Weak sauce so far from Breslow but there’s still time but it’s running out like the fanbases patience.
Box – Thanks! Yeah between the awful offense, can’t play CF or RF, and off the field issues with his manager and others, seems like he’s a downgrade from Dugie in every respect. Probably a decision motivated by what else, money.
Cancelled MLB and getting ready to tell me son we’re not taking a trip to Fenway this year. Sucks but I’m not spending a dime on this team if they can’t add snell or Montgomery. Next years Free agent pitchers suck. Their pitching pipeline sucks. I’m not even asking they go over the tax limit w this roster but they have to get close.
I really hope a boycott can be created and people stay away from Fenway and avoid their merch.
Trot – Excellent post! And BTW they are currently $52M below the first CBT threshold …. they have plenty of money to spend, they just choose not to.
BTW – Plenty of tickets left for Winter Weekend! An event that used to get sold out within a day or two.
Fever – canceling the town hall and refusing to face the music is going to really hurt attendance
GASox – Agreed. I’m sure Pap will put on a good show, but the Town Hall was always the focal point of the weekend. In the beginning that’s ALL it was, a Town Hall on one night.
Seems like nearly every decision they make these days is a bad one.
The Fans wanted them to spend for Devers, and now complain about it. Do you really want another bloated contract for Snell or Montgomery? They have money to spend, but don’t let it burn a hole in the pocket. Evidently, the fact there is $crap to spend it on shouldn’t stop them.
let’s hope so
Excellent post! And BTW they are currently $52M below the first CBT threshold …. they have plenty of money to spend, they just choose not to.
BTW – Plenty of tickets left for Winter Weekend! An event that used to get sold out within a day or two.
The Red Sox would rather count their millions than spend it. I keep saying that as long as the fannies are in the seats, nothing is going to change.
Stymee – I don’t know any Sox fans unhappy Devers got extended. Sure it was an overpay, but he’s young and has been a great hitter for a long time. He’s also the ONLY star player on the team, and the only remaining link to 2018.
And YES when you neglect pitching in the last 4 drafts and don’t do a good job of developing or trading for pitchers, you are forced to spend big for it. Obviously picking over the scrap heap for pitching didn’t work.
Nobody really complains about the devers contract except trollfree and a few others around here
Montgomery is not old and has been consistent. He can also pitch in the AK East and steps up in big games. It wouldn’t be bloated in my view. Devers as a hitter is worth $200m+ but he’s being paid like a two way star, which he’s not.
Fever – I was very unhappy Devers got extended since Betts, Bogey, JD, and Nate didn’t. The contract is an albatross for a decade.
Also, there is a very tried and true concept about drafting.
Draft and develop hitters because they are more consistently successful and let others develop pitchers and then select the best of the best for top dollar since you saved so much on the hitting side.
Pool – And rightfully so. We paid a guy who had a 126 OPS+ in his last year before the deal that pays him $30MM for 10 years in a row. The Stanton deal was a better deal. Devers will be lucky to be a top 5 player on the team by the time he hits 33. That’s the drop-off year for Miggy, Pujols and others and Devers isn’t even close to them.
Troll- if that draft concept is true then why does anyone draft pitchers? Or are the teams that do draft and develop pitchers just dumb?
Great post!!
Montgomery has statistically been a Top 5 pitcher in all of MLB over the past 3 years, what more do you want to spend on? The Red Sox generate the 3rd most revenue is all of baseball, there are ZERO reasons why they shouldn’t be in Top 3 in spending every year. Last year they were #13 and this year they are projected to be #16, that is simply unacceptable!
The Red Sox have for a long time used the draft hitters and sign pitchers philosophy and that has worked quite well for quite some time. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s likely to work in the future. The problem is the exploding cost of established big league pitching. If Red Sox ownership isn’t willing to carry a large top 5 payroll then Boston is going to have to develop pitching moving forward. I mean I think we all know that Breslow is working on a budget mandate from ownership. We just don’t know what that budget is but with talk that he has to move some salary before adding would anyone be surprised if the budget is 200 million not 225 million. If this is the case and Boston starts with a 200 million payroll then Breslow never really had a chance and he might as well take this season to evaluate what he has with the young guys and formulate the plan for next offseason. At this point it appears to be a much deeper free agent class. The biggest change this off-season is the revamping of the pitching staff hierarchy. I’m really looking forward to seeing Willard and Bailey transform the pitching from top to bottom.
I do hope that ownership at least green lights Breslow to go to a 225 million payroll and we see another significant pitching addition. Unfortunately trading for young cost controlled pitching has an exorbitant cost it appears and just doesn’t look viable at this point. I do have high hopes for significant leaps forward from several pitchers Bello, Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock under the tutelage of Bailey. I just hope when and if Breslow puts together a potential championship level team that ownership will spend then. At this point it’s just hope because on paper the team is nit as good as last years team without youngsters taking significant steps forward.
Yup people see thru this. Nobody likes being played. People are over it.
Dude it ain’t your money so don’t get your panties all wet
These days? They’ve been making horrible decisions since 2019
Bruin1012 – ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO THINK HE WON”T BE GRANTED MONEY TO THE CAP AND BEYOND IF THE CONTRACTS MAKE SENSE. Heck, the last Bloom deals didn’t make sense and they got approved so there is no evidence that ownership is limiting spending. It’s all on the GM not ownership. Without action nothing changes.
Litmus test is Blake Snell and Jordan montgomery. If we get one of those we’re okay. If those two slip away and go elsewhere then I’m with all you guys here.
Red Sox must get one of those two guys. Not a fan of Snell but if Montgomery stays in Texas you almost have to sign him and bite the bullet. Otherwise this offseason is a total loss.
Gary – Agreed! Unless they swing a trade for a top SP, but that would involve giving up some great talent.
So spend top dollar on a pitcher you don’t like or have faith in, on a long term contract, because they are not competing in ’24 anyway?
Agreed. I’m sure Pap will put on a good show, but the Town Hall was always the focal point of the weekend. In the beginning that’s ALL it was, a Town Hall on one night.
Seems like nearly every decision they make these days is a bad one.
getting ready to tell me son we’re not taking a trip to Fenway this year.
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Just imho, but that’s kind of sad. In so many ways.
Baseball, for any team, is not showing up only when they win. It’s about just watching the game. It’s about showing up with a 100% certainty that they will win, even when they are an underdog. Character is built by being there when times are rough, not waiting for a game against Oakland when you expect to win.
But most of all, victory is far sweeter when you’ve been made to work for it.
We live in NJ so it’s an event to make the trip. I love the under dog. I don’t love supporting an ownership group that doesn’t put the right amount of dollars that their market and fan base deserve. Ownership is exploiting 100+ years of Red sox branding.
Also context. They were cheap w our favorite player. Now we have a massive hole at the top of the rotation that the farm system has no shot of replacing in the next couple years…. Sorry I love the underdog but this is theft
It’s also an expensive trip. Going for the first time is one thing but to support a team where ownership seems to have stopped trying to compete is another.
Joe – That’s quite comical. I know a long time ago you said you’re a Yankees season ticket holder. Have you ever seen a game at Fenway that didn’t include the Yankees?
If you had, you’d understand how illogical it is to pay hundreds of dollars to be unhappy watching your favorite team lose.
Going to a game at Fenway is supposed to be fun. There’s nothing fun about watching the Sox lose at home to a team like the Rockies or Rays, ESPECIALLY when the game is meaningless because it’s the second half of the season and the team is already realistically out of the playoff chase.
It’s far better to teach your kid a very important lesson, if somebody or something has shown they don’t care about you, then you shouldn’t care about them.
Clearly Red Sox ownership doesn’t care about the fans, all they care about is their bottom line.
I haven’t bought tickets or merchandise since the bad Mookie trade and if they don’t make meaningful improvements to the pitching staff I won’t even be watching much NESN….
Replacement value seems to be a point of confusion for you.
You’ll never replace a Juan Soto. Exactly so why would someone who has a generational player trade them? It’s moronic. You cut all the $10MM guys and get $1MM guys and you keep Soto. Using Cashman as an example is like suggesting an action by Cora as an example. They are both idiots who have no clue how to do their jobs.
Here is how replacement value works to the betterment of the Large and Small market teams.
If BOSTON a big market team has quality prospects with upside and control and MILWAUKEE has Burnes who will become too expensive to keep after 2024 then Boston trades several prospects for Burnes if they can get Burnes and he is willing to accept a new contract for 2024 to 2028. Boston adds an ace that they don’t have and Milwaukee doesn’t get a draft pick compensation for Burnes.
Milwaukee ONLY breaks even if they can get prospects that will exceed league average for multiple years of their control because at the end of their control the good prospects will again be too expensive so they will be dealt for more prospects. Will Mayer be above league average? I say no BUT most people believe he will be so use his pretender status as a gold chip prospect going to MIL. Will Yorke be another gold Chip prospect? Probably not but he’s got some value. Bleis has recently been in the top 100 so he is worth slightly less than Mayer. Three prospects that have all been in the top 100 in the last two years. Milwaukee loses their #1 SP and roughly $16MM in costs but they add three prospects who are controllable until 2030 and will cost roughly $2MM in 2024. They shave $14MM from the payroll and add a future SS, 2B and OF that have all been in the top 100.
The evaluation of the trade gets reviewed like this:
Burnes new 5 year deal is at $26MM a year (just a guess we could use any number). Does he perform during the 5 years at a value greater than $26MM. To know if he does you must compare him to other SPs making similar money to establish a baseline value target. Once established you have a yardstick for measuring his success. Then you go to the three prospects and see which ones contribute MORE than a league average contribution while costing under $1MM per year. That is the positive contribution that is made to Milwaukee. If any of the three become all-stars then MIL wins the deal. If they all are league average during their control years then BOS wins the deal.
Remember when evaluating the deal you ONLY count the years at the MLB level. The new CBA has expanded the years of control but there are ways to shorten it as a prospect. The 2030 Free Agency could be moved up if the player wins ROY. All this needs to be counted in the value of the prospects during their control years no matter how long it takes for them to arrive. If it’s a long time, then the time value of their costs need to be added into the equation.
In the end, trades should never be driven by website data suggesting future value of players. That’s as bad as suggesting a player with more range is better than one with less range without considering their fielding percentage. The data is irrelevant just like the suggested values from these sites. If you designed their formula and believe it’s correct then use it. If you are trusting them, don’t. Trust your knowledge of the game more.
A lot of people are thinking Henry is lowering the payroll to help a sale of the team and it got me thinking that they maybe interested in buying a basketball team if that’s true then they have to wait till LBJ retires so if u think about in a yr or 2 they have a low payroll making it easier to sell by then he will probably be retiring
78 – 84 Book it.
I don’t like the 2 years of finishing in the cellar either, but i don’t see anything left on the FA market that is worth what it will take to sign them. Montgomery isn’t a 9 figure starting pitcher., and Snell has had 2 great years in his career and can’t pitch 200 innings a year. Hard pass for me on both. I also wouldn’t gut the farm either, that’s why the Sox are in the state they are in. I’d much rather the Sox build a solid foundation and contend every year like Houston or Atlanta than repeat the Dombrowski years and push all your chips in for one run..
Yaz, all three of your points are good. So this is what we run into the season with, the squad we have now?
There’s got to be one more starting pitcher available that we can swing a trade for that doesn’t cost a ton. Then if everything falls into place and guys do what they’re supposed to do they could contend.
Some people have said that Bailey and Breslow can work with the pitchers already on the roster and perhaps one or two could be molded into very good starting pictures. Fingers crossed it all works out.
Replacement value seems to be a point of confusion for you.
You’ll never replace a Juan Soto. Exactly so why would someone who has a generational player trade them? It’s moronic. You cut all the $10MM guys and get $1MM guys and you keep Soto. Using Cashman as an example is like suggesting an action by Cora as an example. They are both idiots who have no clue how to do their jobs.
Here is how replacement value works to the betterment of the Large and Small market teams.
If BOSTON a big market team has quality prospects with upside and control and MILWAUKEE has Burnes who will become too expensive to keep after 2024 then Boston trades several prospects for Burnes if they can get Burnes and he is willing to accept a new contract for 2024 to 2028. Boston adds an ace that they don’t have and Milwaukee doesn’t get a draft pick compensation for Burnes.
Milwaukee ONLY breaks even if they can get prospects that will exceed league average for multiple years of their control because at the end of their control the good prospects will again be too expensive so they will be dealt for more prospects. Will Mayer be above league average? I say no BUT most people believe he will be so use his pretender status as a gold chip prospect going to MIL. Will Yorke be another gold Chip prospect? Probably not but he’s got some value. Bleis has recently been in the top 100 so he is worth slightly less than Mayer. Three prospects that have all been in the top 100 in the last two years. Milwaukee loses their #1 SP and roughly $16MM in costs but they add three prospects who are controllable until 2030 and will cost roughly $2MM in 2024. They shave $14MM from the payroll and add a future SS, 2B and OF that have all been in the top 100.
The evaluation of the trade gets reviewed like this:
Burnes new 5 year deal is at $26MM a year (just a guess we could use any number). Does he perform during the 5 years at a value greater than $26MM. To know if he does you must compare him to other SPs making similar money to establish a baseline value target. Once established you have a yardstick for measuring his success. Then you go to the three prospects and see which ones contribute MORE than a league average contribution while costing under $1MM per year. That is the positive contribution that is made to Milwaukee. If any of the three become all-stars then MIL wins the deal. If they all are league average during their control years then BOS wins the deal.
Remember when evaluating the deal you ONLY count the years at the MLB level. The new CBA has expanded the years of control but there are ways to shorten it as a prospect. The 2030 Free Agency could be moved up if the player wins ROY. All this needs to be counted in the value of the prospects during their control years no matter how long it takes for them to arrive. If it’s a long time, then the time value of their costs need to be added into the equation.
In the end, trades should never be driven by website data suggesting future value of players. That’s as bad as suggesting a player with more range is better than one with less range without considering their fielding percentage. The data is irrelevant just like the suggested values from these sites. If you designed their formula and believe it’s correct then use it. If you are trusting them, don’t. Trust your knowledge of the game more.
Boston need to do sometin… like trade Story to the Padres( they save money) then sign Monty or Snell!! After trade for Cease or Burn
What position would he play? Padres don’t need a SS or 2nd.
The problem is ownership. The old ownership wouldn’t have blinked twice about signing Monty without first having to move other payroll. Given the prices charged for everything, fans have to make a statement. Absent a sudden change, I would love for there to be an empty Fenway for the home opener.
Dewey: The problem with Monty is probably Boras’ asking price. Looks like teams are waiting it out, waiting for the price to drop.
All, the problem also is with Boras, if the Sox were’in it” he’d just raise his demand again. I do though really believe Monty is different given his wife’s job in Boston. If no one steps up he could circle back with Sox management and take the best deal he can get.
Teams like rangers and others also have to wait until Bally/DSG court date on Jan 19 . They have to see who is going to broadcast and what revenue will be .
All – The problem with Monty is he is focused on returning to Texas and just needs the right offer to return. He’s not going to Boston unless things fall apart with Texas.
KD: How do you know that?
Suit: aside from the way ownership invests in the team lately, or the expected competitiveness of the two clibs for next season based on how things stand now, how about the fact his wife will be in boston. That’s a good excuse to want to be in TEX, no?
I’m kidding of course, as most married men do… sort of.
LOL
youtube.com/shorts/pKrMEj5enzk?si=OkALBRYg4kcQNri_
All – I live in the Texas market and it’s all over the news down here. The local beat writers suggest that Monty is still a priority for Texas. I’m guessing Chris Young is trying to figure out number of years because he’s got so many great young pitchers. If he has to pay a high price then he’s going to go shorter than Monty wants but if he goes longer then he needs a team opt out after 3 years because they have some great young arms. Porter, Leiter and Rocker are three of the more known SPs in their farm system.
KD: Good info. I believe Monty is a priority for Texas. How do you know Monty is focused on a return to Texas as you said?
All – Last night a local new reporter said Texas is trying to finalize a deal with Monty and that both Monty and Texas want him in Texas. Obviously, it’s no better than a local Boston reporter saying something similar but if some dropped the rumor from the Rangers that’s at least some sign of life that they are still talking. It makes sense from Young’s perspective since he liked him enough to bring him to Texas and Monty performed well in the clutch.
I see. Got it.
And, again, his wife is stuck in boston. 😉
Replacement value seems to be a point of confusion for you.
You’ll never replace a Juan Soto. Exactly so why would someone who has a generational player trade them? It’s moronic. You cut all the $10MM guys and get $1MM guys and you keep Soto. Using Cashman as an example is like suggesting an action by Cora as an example. They are both idiots who have no clue how to do their jobs.
Here is how replacement value works to the betterment of the Large and Small market teams.
If BOSTON a big market team has quality prospects with upside and control and MILWAUKEE has Burnes who will become too expensive to keep after 2024 then Boston trades several prospects for Burnes if they can get Burnes and he is willing to accept a new contract for 2024 to 2028. Boston adds an ace that they don’t have and Milwaukee doesn’t get a draft pick compensation for Burnes.
Milwaukee ONLY breaks even if they can get prospects that will exceed league average for multiple years of their control because at the end of their control the good prospects will again be too expensive so they will be dealt for more prospects. Will Mayer be above league average? I say no BUT most people believe he will be so use his pretender status as a gold chip prospect going to MIL. Will Yorke be another gold Chip prospect? Probably not but he’s got some value. Bleis has recently been in the top 100 so he is worth slightly less than Mayer. Three prospects that have all been in the top 100 in the last two years. Milwaukee loses their #1 SP and roughly $16MM in costs but they add three prospects who are controllable until 2030 and will cost roughly $2MM in 2024. They shave $14MM from the payroll and add a future SS, 2B and OF that have all been in the top 100.
The evaluation of the trade gets reviewed like this:
Burnes new 5 year deal is at $26MM a year (just a guess we could use any number). Does he perform during the 5 years at a value greater than $26MM. To know if he does you must compare him to other SPs making similar money to establish a baseline value target. Once established you have a yardstick for measuring his success. Then you go to the three prospects and see which ones contribute MORE than a league average contribution while costing under $1MM per year. That is the positive contribution that is made to Milwaukee. If any of the three become all-stars then MIL wins the deal. If they all are league average during their control years then BOS wins the deal.
Remember when evaluating the deal you ONLY count the years at the MLB level. The new CBA has expanded the years of control but there are ways to shorten it as a prospect. The 2030 Free Agency could be moved up if the player wins ROY. All this needs to be counted in the value of the prospects during their control years no matter how long it takes for them to arrive. If it’s a long time, then the time value of their costs need to be added into the equation.
In the end, trades should never be driven by website data suggesting future value of players. That’s as bad as suggesting a player with more range is better than one with less range without considering their fielding percentage. The data is irrelevant just like the suggested values from these sites. If you designed their formula and believe it’s correct then use it. If you are trusting them, don’t. Trust your knowledge of the game more.
Padres have shortstops everywhere!!
SS or DH! Don’t care!! Tatis will plays SS then move to RF when Marcelo Mayers is ready
Wait, wait, wait… So you are expecting the Padres to trade the Red Sox Fernando Tatis for Trevor Story!?! Ooooooooooookay.
Padres can’t pay his contract, so unless Boston is picking it up, not happening.
stymeedone – Padres have $40MM in CAP room with Tatis making up $24.3 of it. They would be insane to trade a $23.3MM Story for a $24.3MM Story.
If you are saying their current payroll of $198MM is too much for them to handle and they want to shed money then they don’t take Story they take Mayer for Tatis and save $24.3MM to get down to 173.7MM. I don’t know if they are in financial straights and need to do that but it would be a great trade for Boston because Tatis’ bat and speed would be a huge add. Story could play 3B if Tatis can still play SS. Tatis at $24.3 for 11 years is financially feasible especially since he’s 25 in 2024. He would be ONE of the all-star quality players we need to add back to the roster. Dealing Story is still possible if he hits and someone takes a major injury at SS so it’s worth risk.
ALWAYS sign an elite player because there are barely enough to go around and each one gives your team a big advantage!!
Very interesting idea. No way you do a Story buy down. Move Mayer and take the win.
TF – interesting idea, and, I wouldnt miss Mayer one bit, but, I think SD would want more than that for him – especially given that they are already seeking OF help.
However, if you wanted to bundle Mayer, Jansen+cash, and one of our controllable OFers, I bet you could get it done.
Padres need outfielder
Or a shortstop they can move to the outfield, like Tatis
Tatis is already in their OF.
Why trade Story? He was hurt. Give him the opportunity to bounce back.
I totally agree, as of now. I’m still holding out hope.
But I hafta admit, Mark’s belief that “an argument could be made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023” is totally inappropriate. It’s lewd, lascivious, salacious, outrageous.
So far they have subtracted a great deal of offensive production in Turner and Duvall and replaced them with O’Neill and Grissom. They have subtracted two starting pitchers (Paxton and Sale) who were very good over periods of time last year and can be dominant if they stay healthy, and replaced them with a guy whose has a 5-ish ERA over the past two years. On top of that, they still have only one LHR in Bernardino.
That is NOT LOOKING BETTER no matter how you slice it! If it’s true they are not serious about Snell, Monty or Burnes and they don’t land Soler or re-sign Turner or Duvall and they don’t acquire a quality lefty reliever, then buckle up folks …. the franchise will be descending into a whole new level of shame and RSN will make their feelings heard loud and clear.
Incompetant, irrelavent and imaterial!!!!!
Dumb take bro, you didn’t even mention Verdugo left and he’s the one Oneill replaced not Turner or Duvall.
Sinister Joe – Since I can’t respond to your comments I’m using BeeCarbo’s comment to respond.
I like what your wrote!! The roster is worse than last year’s and that’s not easy to do!!
Breslow hasn’t moved Devers, hasn’t fired Cora, hasn’t gotten a SP1 or SP2, hasn’t picked up 2 lefty late inning relievers and he’s not picked up a stud 3B to replace Devers when he moves. That’s a lot of inaction when action is needed.
With Soto going to the Yankees and Judge healthy, it’s likely that TB without Franco will be our closest opponent in the AL East. They should be roughly 10 games ahead of us by the end of the season unless Breslow starts doing his job. What makes it worse is that Boston has a great young group of players who will all get less playing time thanks to the moves he’s made. I want to see Rafaela, Duran and Abreu starting in the outfield with Anthony coming up when he’s ready. I want to see the SP3 to SP5 spots filled by Bello, Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Whitlock. I want to see Kenley dealt so we can try Houck at closer while the roster transitions from hell to purgatory. I want to see Grissom play, I want to see Devers DH and our team defense climb into the top 10 like it should be. I want to see Yoshi dealt with Kenley to get a top flight SP or two. I want the pretenders in the prospect list to be dealt like DD dealt Moncada and Kopech for Sale.
Breslow has so many opportunities and it’s not clear why he can’t pull the trigger on ANY of the urgently needed changes.
Disagree….infield is better, true? Bullpen is deeper with more help in Worcester, and Giliolito pitched almost as many innings as Sale and Paxton combined in 2023.
A healthy Story and O’Neill, full season of Casas as a mature hitter, Grissom stabilizing second base reproduction, a full season of Duran and Abreu, and just anchoring Yoshida at the DH, are all positives for the Red Sox. Not suggesting this is a contending team, I just think people overstate the demise of the Red Sox as they express their legitimate concern about the lack of big spending on free agents.
It also comes down to whether Houk, Crawford, Whitlock, and Winckowski continue to grow as pitchers under Bailey’s guidance. .
If they don’t sign a right-handed stick behind Devers (Duval, Solar) or add another starter (Clevinger?) and left-handed reliever (Moore, Chapman) before spring training, it’s imp[act on Devers, the bullpen, and the starting pitching depth they need to hang around will be seriously diminished, leaving the team pretty vulnerable..
Prophet – Hard to agree with your perception of the current situation.
1 – Infield NOT better in 2024. Devers still at third and a year older so the errors will increase, Story theoretically could hit better or he could hit worse or get hurt, Grissom is an improvement and Casas is 50/50. He could have a typical sophomore slump or he could develop on what he did in the second half. No way to know is improvement isn’t guaranteed.
2 – Your pitching staff has a lower ceiling without Sale but it may have more innings eaten by Giolito. The problem is will those innings be at 3.00, 4.00 or 5.00 ERA and 1.10, 1.20 or 1.30 WHIP? Sale was about health not quality. Giolito is about quality only so he will fulfill a role as innings eater but will he pitch like a SP1 or SP5 or something in between?
3 – You left off the best young outfielder who gives the outfield a great chance of improving. Rafaela is the best of all the current outfielders on the MLB roster. Anthony may be better and prove that early and get promoted. O’Neill is a coin flip after 3 bad years. Duran is rock solid but will he repeat his break-out year or regress? Abreu was a fluke. He’s a good player but he missed the late September games against great pitchers so his average was artificially higher than it should have been. The buzz saw of pitchers late in September didn’t just hurt Rafaela’s average it hurt the WHOLE team’s averages. Rafaela had the fewest overall at bats so his average suffered most but he’s still a 22 year old SS/RF who batted lead-off in September against a AL East schedule. (19 games). The outfield if handled correctly could be as good as last year. If handled incorrectly it will be significantly worse thanks to O’Neill getting playing time over better young players. Remember, with Cora at the helm, the wrong line-up is most likely.
Last point, the only Chapman we need is MATT. Let someone else sweat out Mitch Williams II in 2024!!!
Your infield assessment is pretty biased. You had Kiki at SS and Valdez at 2b; it was awful; Grissom has a chance to play every day at the position, and he will thrive.
In year two, Casas will be better defensively, the game will slow down. He looks slimmer and more athletic in the workouts I’ve seen. A whole year of Story at SS, after a full year of strengthening his shoulder and arms after surgery, will improve everyone. His first full spring training with the Red Sox!
Sale’s injuries wore down the bullpen that was overperforming. We’ll see about the pitching, and we can continue this debate at the all-star break.
I’m fully aware of Rafaela, but he needs a few months in AAA to keep working on his contract and command of the zone. He is a stud defender, and I look forward to his arrival in June., but slow him down and build him.
Devers is 27, “a year older,” not a good take., he’s still in his athletic prime……just having Verdugo off the team will improve Devers’s focus. Having Story’s ability to go to his right at SS will allow Devers to be more stationary.
O’Neil had two bad years, not three.
Padres have $40MM in CAP room with Tatis making up $24.3 of it. They would be insane to trade a $23.3MM Story for a $24.3MM Story.
If you are saying their current payroll of $198MM is too much for them to handle and they want to shed money then they don’t take Story they take Mayer for Tatis and save $24.3MM to get down to 173.7MM. I don’t know if they are in financial straights and need to do that but it would be a great trade for Boston because Tatis’ bat and speed would be a huge add. Story could play 3B if Tatis can still play SS. Tatis at $24.3 for 11 years is financially feasible especially since he’s 25 in 2024. He would be ONE of the all-star quality players we need to add back to the roster. Dealing Story is still possible if he hits and someone takes a major injury at SS so it’s worth risk.
ALWAYS sign an elite player because there are barely enough to go around and each one gives your team a big advantage!!
Very interesting idea. No way you do a Story buy down. Move Mayer and take the win.
Hard to agree with your perception of the current situation.
1 – Infield NOT better in 2024. Devers still at third and a year older so the errors will increase, Story theoretically could hit better or he could hit worse or get hurt, Grissom is an improvement and Casas is 50/50. He could have a typical sophomore slump or he could develop on what he did in the second half. No way to know is improvement isn’t guaranteed.
2 – Your pitching staff has a lower ceiling without Sale but it may have more innings eaten by Giolito. The problem is will those innings be at 3.00, 4.00 or 5.00 ERA and 1.10, 1.20 or 1.30 WHIP? Sale was about health not quality. Giolito is about quality only so he will fulfill a role as innings eater but will he pitch like a SP1 or SP5 or something in between?
3 – You left off the best young outfielder who gives the outfield a great chance of improving. Rafaela is the best of all the current outfielders on the MLB roster. Anthony may be better and prove that early and get promoted. O’Neill is a coin flip after 3 bad years. Duran is rock solid but will he repeat his break-out year or regress? Abreu was a fluke. He’s a good player but he missed the late September games against great pitchers so his average was artificially higher than it should have been. The buzz saw of pitchers late in September didn’t just hurt Rafaela’s average it hurt the WHOLE team’s averages. Rafaela had the fewest overall at bats so his average suffered most but he’s still a 22 year old SS/RF who batted lead-off in September against a AL East schedule. (19 games). The outfield if handled correctly could be as good as last year. If handled incorrectly it will be significantly worse thanks to O’Neill getting playing time over better young players. Remember, with Cora at the helm, the wrong line-up is most likely.
Last point, the only Chapman we need is MATT. Let someone else sweat out Mitch Williams II in 2024!!!
Insane – You don’t remember how bad Story was offensively BEFORE he got hurt in 2022, do you?
I’m not saying that Story is going to bounce back or not offensively. He was a league average hitter according to WRC + in 2022 with outstanding defense at second. It’s important to remember he missed a lot of spring training in 2022 and started very slowly offensively. He got Hot for a month and helped carry the team offensively in May then after that he went downhill he was obviously injured.
I’m hopeful that with a full spring training this year his timing will be better. At his best he’s a true pull hitting fly ball hitter who should be perfect for Fenway. He’s quite streaky when he’s hot he gets red hot when he’s cold he can’t water if he fell out of a boat. His defense is really good though it easily top 10 probably top 5 at short. In limited time last year he was outstanding defensively. He has quite a bit of value if he’s just an average big league hitter based on his defense. This is going to be a big year for Story hopefully he stays healthy.
I’m optimistic he is healthier, stronger, and will catch up to fast balls this year. He seems like a guy with a fair amount of pride. Boston Media was chirping about his infield camp with returning players. I hope his leadership will be positive with Devers, Grissom Casas…and Yorke, and Mayer. At the time, I thought it was wise to let Boegarts move on (not at SS moving forward), and the salary Story signed for v. what the market was showing at the time for Correa and others made me think it was an astute signing. Let’s see what happens, but his full spring training and improved strength is one of the reasons that makes me more optimistic about the Red Sox in 2024 than 90% of the commenting community who think this tram is worse than 2023.
Story missed most of the spring training in 2022 and was playing with a bad elbow before he had the surgery in 2023…..so I’m hopeful he has recovered from his surgery and is now stronger after a full year removed from the surgery and can catchup to fastballs. We’ll see how it turns out.
Padres or any other team in MLB wants any of the Red Sox overpaid players with their bad contracts.
Story needs to prove he can still hit before any MLB team even considers taking a shot at him. Sox would have to eat 5o% f his salary, like they did moving Price in the Mookie deal.
Let Story and Grissom play up the middle and see what emerges, if it looks great, trade Mayer when it is clear he can hit a breaking ball and he has much better numbers in AA/AAA.
Agreed! Unless they swing a trade for a top SP, but that would involve giving up some great talent.
My patience hasn’t worn thin at all. I’m tired of Boras and am very happy to not employ his clients with foolish contract terms. Turning away from Snell and Montgomery is just fine, thank you. Trading controllable talent? Maybe for the right piece. But pitchers are delicate, prone to injury, inconsistent, etc. Fanbase be damned, I want them to do things that make the team better, not to appease Johnny at Burger King.
@whyhayzee this is exactly how I feel about the Jays. Our teams might be competing for the cellar this year, but I would rather that outcome than years of regrets after signing one of Boras’ over priced FAs.
If the Jays, or my Sox, don’t make moves fans will be paying for overpriced cellar seats. Not an option for last place Fenway seat price tags IMHO.
You don’t remember how bad Story was offensively BEFORE he got hurt in 2022, do you?
You don’t remember how bad Story was offensively BEFORE he got hurt in 2022, do you?
Fanbase be damned, I want them to do things that make the team better, not to appease Johnny at Burger King.
========================
LOL and I am in 100% agreement. I’m still young enough to be hoping for rooting for the RS for the next 20 years. I want to win every trade, every draft, every signing. It doesn’t matter whether it is a s/t or l/t win.
I went 40 years with nothing, then 20 years with FOUR. Why would I complain? This is the ownership that has gotten FOUR. Yawkey? Nothing. Those GM’s, those managers? Nothing. 67, 75, 86, etc. Get me somebody who can close out a game. Foulke. Papelbon. Uehara. And yes, Kimbrel. Is Jansen on that level? Maybe. But I can tell you, get somebody who can close out a game or be happy with last place. Because if you’re going to the postseason, I WANT TO WIN! Damnit.
Ownership has become a conglomerate where their priorities are no longer in producing a championship team. That’s a big problem for fans.
whyhayzee – I caught a lot of grief for roasting Bloom on a regular basis but he deserved it and I saw that early on. There were so many mistakes made beginning with hiring Cora and then re-hiring Cora. Firing DD started the avalanche of bad things happening. Hiring Bloom, losing Mookie, Benny and the rest of the 2018 team. Watching the daily mismanagement by Cora. So much negative has happened.
I waited 48 years for a ring. I watched the 67 series and never realized that Boston wouldn’t win for another 37 years!!! I loved the 2018 team because it was designed beautifully except for the manager. Timely replacements like JD for Papi and Sale/Price for the missing quality SP1 and SP2 the team needed after the 2013 ring. Great closer added after Papelbon was gone. Everything was great in 2016 to 2018. Then Cora hurt the team by thinking and moving back the start of Spring Training for the pitchers because the team played late into the year due to the World Series. Who thinks like that? He’s a moron. He should have asked a pitching expert. Maybe a call to Farrell. But no his ego makes him think he has a clue about things he has no idea about.
That was the end and now we need a new beginning so I can pull my 60 years of gear out of storage and be proud of being a Red Sox fan. That won’t happen until Cora is gone.
We need a firing and a repositioning to turn this thing around. We need a series of salary dumps to make room for the future. Texas turned it around in 2 years. Breslow if he is effective can do the same but it all starts with Cora and Devers. If he doesn’t have the power to make change then he’s worthless to us as fans and we will watch much more mediocrity in the near future.
Great post.
I hope the Sox find a sucker to take Story off their hands. I’d also listen to offers for Yoshida and Jansen, as keeping any of them will not change the outcome for the Sox. I hope Andrew Bailey can make a huge impact on the pitching they already have. Throw strikes and quit nit picking the corners of the plate..
Montgomery is not the answer, he only had a winning record once St. Louis dealt him to Texas. Let some other team get stuck signing him for 5 or 6 years..
Trade Yorke and Casas for an arm that throws harder than 95. It’d be the first one since Eovaldi
Not Casas…im ok to trade Yorke, Duran,Yoshida,Rafeala or Bleiss
Casas lol. Guess u dont have NESN
Casas could quite easily win the MVP award this year. Let’s stop throwing names out there for trades that are foolish.
This is almost as bad as the guy who suggested trading Story for Tatis.
teddy – It’s all about depth when it comes to trading.
Casas is a young star with nobody else in the organization challenging him since Dalbec failed. He is NOT a guy to trade, I completely agree. Who are people to trade?
1 – Yorke – We now have Grissom so he’s redundant
2 – Mayer – He is still highly valued despite being a huge disappointment in the minors to date. He needs to put up FOURTH PLAYER PICKED IN THE DRAFT type numbers not mid draft numbers like he’s done.
3 – Teel – IF a quality catcher is coming back in the deal. A catcher who is above league average after several years in the majors. Then Teel can be used to get a SP1.
4 – Bleis, Zantello, Romero and any other prospect NOT NAMED Rafaela, Duran, Anthony. That’s our future OF and it costs under $3MM a year in total and Free Agency for Duran is 2028 the other two are 2030.
5 Yoshida – He’s redundant to Devers who should be the DH. If Devers is traded for a more complete 3B then Yoshida can stay but that’s incredibly unlikely so he must go.
6 – Story – Not likely unless he shows he can hit. Then a big market team might be desperate enough to trade for him if they take a key injury at SS.
7 – Giolito and O’Neill – YEP two bad contracts that might work out if they return to form temporarily and we can upgrade at SP by moving both. We don’t need either if we get a true SP1 and SP2. Our outfield is already set.
I’m a huge Casas fan now but it took him proving himself for me to become a believer. Now, he’s ready to take that next step up to being an all-star.
TF – I’m not a casas believer yet, as we talked about previously. I look at RAA, OAA, UZR/UZR150, so on so forth on his defense and he has a lot to learn and prove.
But I do view him as a cheap DH where you can keep his bat, cheaply, as DHs get much lower arb raises as well than even 1Bs do.
Stuff that bat in the DH hole if you can’t, or won’t, move Devers and get a ++ defender at 1B to improve the infield where you can. And use the arb raise savings in a couple years elsewhere.
GA – If you can’t move Devers then why bother moving Casas to DH? His impact of being average is minuscule compared to the fact that Devers is the worst in the history of the game.
We don’t have a better 1B and we have two DHs right now not counting O’Neill so Casas at under $1MM per year is a buy. Devers at $30MM a year is a catastrophe.
Disliking a young stand out 1B who is cheap makes no sense to me when you have a buffoon playing 3B making nearly 1/3 of a billion over the next 10 years, a LF/DH making $18MM a year who can’t field and a SS making $23.3MM who can’t hit.
Sorry but the biggest problems are still:
1 – Cora
2 – Devers
3 – NO SPs for slots 1 and 2
4 – NO lefty relievers
5 – NO power hitting 3B who can field to replace Devers
6 – NO trade of Yoshida, Jansen, Martin or Story
7 – Too many questionable additions like O’Neill and Giolito.
8 – $17MM buy down of Sale with ATL putting up $8.6MM
We don’t lose games because of Casas’ defense but we do lose games due to Devers defense. Just like we lose games because of Cora’s decisions.
It’s a no brainer that isn’t happening so the 2024 season will be a bust until it does happen.
TF – I agree and have been vocal about Devers.
However, Casas is NOT an average defensive 1B by the body of work he put up so far.
In 125 games, he racked up -4 DRS. -10 OAA. -8 RAA. Those are not the numbers of a player who will be regularly making positive defensive impact.
Take a look at this list of 2023 1Bs with a minimum of 500 innings at the position: Casas?
29th of 31 players.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&sea…
You don’t have to like the analytics, but he is not average defensively, or close to it.
Broke is broke. Improve where you can.
Casas was very poor defensively at the beginning of the year. This was the same time that he started very poorly offensively.
By the end of the season he was much better defensively, in fact, at one point he was -14 in DRS and finished at -10 because he was much better defensively at the end of the season. I expect he will be fine defensively he was considered above average defensively in the minors and while I don’t think he will be gold glove level ever at first he should be at least average moving forward.
I expect he will continue to mature as an offensive player and be one of the best most dangerous hitters in baseball for years to come. This was his MO in the minors he took a while almost always started slowly at each stop but mashed the last few weeks before promotion. There are no promotions now I expect him to really come into his power this year as he continues to get more comfortable in the big leagues.
Trollfree…. I agree with most of your takes with the exception of Mayer…. I see a guy with all the tools that was really starting to catch fire, then had a significant injury. You are being way to impatient.
Your list should start off with:
1. FIRE CORA..
2. See #1
..
caught a lot of grief for roasting Bloom on a regular basis but he deserved it and I saw that early on. There were so many mistakes made beginning with hiring Cora and then re-hiring Cora. Firing DD started the avalanche of bad things happening. Hiring Bloom, losing Mookie, Benny and the rest of the 2018 team. Watching the daily mismanagement by Cora. So much negative has happened.
I waited 48 years for a ring. I watched the 67 series and never realized that Boston wouldn’t win for another 37 years!!! I loved the 2018 team because it was designed beautifully except for the manager. Timely replacements like JD for Papi and Sale/Price for the missing quality SP1 and SP2 the team needed after the 2013 ring. Great closer added after Papelbon was gone. Everything was great in 2016 to 2018. Then Cora hurt the team by thinking and moving back the start of Spring Training for the pitchers because the team played late into the year due to the World Series. Who thinks like that? He’s a moron. He should have asked a pitching expert. Maybe a call to Farrell. But no his ego makes him think he has a clue about things he has no idea about.
That was the end and now we need a new beginning so I can pull my 60 years of gear out of storage and be proud of being a Red Sox fan. That won’t happen until Cora is gone.
We need a firing and a repositioning to turn this thing around. We need a series of salary dumps to make room for the future. Texas turned it around in 2 years. Breslow if he is effective can do the same but it all starts with Cora and Devers. If he doesn’t have the power to make change then he’s worthless to us as fans and we will watch much more mediocrity in the near future.
The Red Sox went from prolific powerhouse to a team that tries to be too cute and strike gold with a bunch of projects. I thought maybe it was bc Chaim Bloom was using strategy from his Tampa Bay days, but it looks like it’s beyond that.
Taking a project or two on each year is fine, but their entire roster for the last few years has been built of guys that have shown flashes of success or guys that have been good while healthy, but never actually stay healthy. It looks like they are headed down that path again for 2024. It all started when they traded Betts, and took lesser of a deal to get rid of David Price.
It’s sad how far this team has fallen.
Agreed, except for the sad part. As a Yankee fan, I find it quite wonderful.
melfman1 – I’m sure you can take solace in the fact that as bad as we are we finished right behind the flailing Yankees who are spending $150MM more than Boston in 2024 in hopes of moving closer to 3rd place in the division.
TF – Don’t poke the beast! Have you seen the recent pics of Stanton? If he can stay healthy, combined with Soto and a healthy Judge and Rizzo, that could be a very scary lineup! AND they are pursuing Arraez!
Same thing with their pitching, a healthy Rodon and Cortes and Stroman … and they are still contemplating acquiring another #1 pitcher.
I know you hate them, but give them credit for wanting to win. I wish Henry wanted to win too.
Ryan, ownership decided to get Bloom, believing they could stop spending and use that money on other projects (towards soccer, buying the Penguins, etc.). It’s like the Red Sox are now just a division of the corporation and moves are made that have a global brand stamp instead of a baseball stamp. They seem to reallocate baseball money elsewhere because they anticipate a higher rate of return. While such makes pure corporate sense, it’s at a high cost to the fan base and seems shortsighted.
What gets me is that the only things change is if fans respond accordingly. I’m a Cubs fan, and they have been taking a similar approach in recent years, maybe just not quite as extreme.
I have been to 1 Cubs game since the start of 2021. Typically when I go, I pony up and get 1914 Club seats or other top-end seats. I refuse to support a product that they aren’t supporting the way they should be. I also don’t watch near the amount of games like I used to. As long as the fans are in the stands and their ratings are high, ownership will be content with the revenue bending generated, even if the product is lacking.
I’m not trying to be a bandwagon fan, but I’m not going to waste my time and money if they aren’t going to spend theirs like they should be. I think a lot of larger market teams are seeing smaller market teams win with strategy, and that’s fine if they want to implement that strategy as well, but don’t expect fans to sit around and wait for the development during the crap years while ownership is trying to line their pockets.
The Cubs and Red Sox are two of the most prestigious teams in MLB, and have fans both nationally and internationally. Losing seasons happen due to injury, bad luck and underperforming players, but there should NEVER be a rebuild that takes longer than a single season. The Cubs, for example have gone through two rebuilds in a decade.
A bit silly, imo. The Cubs traded away the future to win a WS. The price for that was a couple of high-priced contracts and a weaker farm. You had a 4-year run where you averaged 97 wins with 5 playoff appearances in 6 years.
Then you paid the price for 2 whole years, Now you’re back. If you want to win a WSC, but not pay the price to do so, then BB might not be your thing.
Joe – WRONG AGAIN!!!
Clowns who talk about trading away the future are fools. The pretenders that dominate the farm system don’t win championships. The players you get for them do.
The Cubs did the right thing but they blew it up too soon. Bad front office decisions reversed the positive swing they got with their ring.
Smart moves will win the Cubs another ring. That’s what won them the first one in over 100 years. They can do it again if they add value with their moves at whatever cost the great moves come at. Good decisions not money spent will dictate their future just like it did in their past.
Don’t poke the beast! Have you seen the recent pics of Stanton? If he can stay healthy, combined with Soto and a healthy Judge and Rizzo, that could be a very scary lineup! AND they are pursuing Arraez!
Same thing with their pitching, a healthy Rodon and Cortes and Stroman … and they are still contemplating acquiring another #1 pitcher.
I know you hate them, but give them credit for wanting to win. I wish Henry wanted to win too.
A combination of Sale and Price…. and the pandemic financial uncertainties, Betts determined to test the market, led to the trade of Mookie.
Phrophet – What planet are you living on?
1 – There were no financial issues for the team profiting to the tune of $300MM a year. That’s BS.
2 – Betts was supposed to get a fair market value deal from DD but DD got fired for wanting to give it to him. They lost their future when they lost Dombrowski.
3 – CORA is why Price and Sale failed. They both had glorious careers until they played for Cora. Watch what happens this year when Sale is with a real manager and a real coaching staff.
It’s crazy but many think the dominoes that created the downfall of the Red Sox all started with the Eckersley/Price incident. These events led to the destruction of the Red Sox:
1 – Price gets called out by ownership and the organization after his issue with Eckersley, the Boston legend.
2 – In response, Mookie goes to ownership and calls them out for being racist in their negative comments related to Price and the overall behavior of the organization to minority players.
3 – Ownership refuses to allow DD to pay Mookie fair market price but DD insists he needs to do it to be successful.
4 – After enough persistence by DD, ownership fires DD less than a year after he won a Ring and after 3 consecutive unprecedented Division Championships.
5 – Cora changes Sale’s mechanics in April and he blows out his elbow by August yet without a GM nobody tells him to get TJ surgery.
6 = The three amigos are temp GMs until Bloom is hired and they don’t order Sale to get TJ Surgery.
7 – Bloom gets hired with the understanding that he is to move Mookie and Price for their detrimental behavior in questioning the owners about racism.
8 – Bloom gives away Mookie in February when the market for him is at it’s lowest point for three worthless over hyped prospects from his mentor Friedman of LAD.
9 – COVID hits in March which triggers an opt out by Price which effectively drops Boston below the CAP for a reset in 2020 whether the trade had happened or not.
10 – Bloom finally orders Sale to get TJ surgery nearly five months after he should have. This delay translates into Sale being out for both the 2020 and 2021 seasons rather than just the 2020 season.
Bloom made bad decisions and got rid of the 2018 roster and destroyed the organization from the ground up. His farm system dropped off despite having high draft picks because the best players in the farm system were from Dombrowski not Bloom. His high draft picks have been busts so far with the exception of Anthony.
That’s what really happened.
TF – You missed a few steps.
You need to talk about the contracts that Boston handed out, most notably to JDM, then compare the offensive contributions of Mookie vs those contracts, particularly JDM, to see how Mookie thought his abilities ought to be valued, to say nothing of his defensive value.
It’s one thing to compare yourself to the free agent market. It’s another to compare yourself to actual contracts being handed out by your own team.
Not to be outdone, and proving they learned NOTHING from the JDM/Mookie comparison between players, they repeated the experiment with Story/Bogey and…. somehow thought it’d turn out differently?
GA – Do you think JDM was over paid? I thought he was a steal. Likewise, extending Bogey at $20MM was brilliant. Trading for a cheap Sale was brilliant. Mookie wanted $36MM because he was the 2nd best player in baseball and deserved it. He should have been paid.
I don’t understand you point about contracts by Boston vs the market place. DD paid high to make sure he stole guys from NY and LAD. He’s still doing it in Philly. It’s the only way to get 1 up on the big market teams BUT the key is the player must be of value and Sale, Price, JD and Nate were all of value. Devers, isn’t worth $30MM, Yoshi isn’t worth $18MM, Story isn’t worth $23.3MM. Heck Turner wasn’t worth his $17.5MM salary for one year. JD outperformed him in 2023 and should have been signed for less than what JT got but Bloom is an idiot.
JD and Mookie under DD’s plan were to play together through 2022 and farther if JD performed well in 2021 and 2022. He would have been extended. Benny would be a Red Sox making around $15MM rather than Kiki at $10MM hitting near the Mendoza line. With DD, we would have struggled in 2020 due to Sale’s injury and 2021 would probably been a playoff year with Mookie and 2022 might have been a championship if DD effectively used the additional $30MM that was added to the CAP.
Boston under Bloom and now Breslow are using their available money poorly. Bloom made bad choices and Breslow is making risky choices. We need a couple of rock solid all-star quality pitchers so we can make a comeback and have a shot at the playoffs. Devers MUST move for that to happen and firing Cora would add at least 8 wins if not a dozen he’s so bad at his job.
The point is, how do you say JDM is worth one rate, then justify offering Mookie a rate valuing his contributions less comparatively?
Or, how do you bring in an inferior Story, then tell Bogey he is worth LESS than Story?
In both cases, the VALUE the same team is telling the player he is worth in negotiations, compared to what they just game someone else, as he sat and watched, is ridiculous.
Bogey at 20m was a good deal. But it was less than story, and less than
GA – When JDM signed with Boston he was $22MM vs the CAP. That same year Mookie made $10.5MM in arbitration.
In 2019, Mookie raised his pay to $20MM by winning the MVP in 2018. Then in 2020 he was set to make $27MM through arbitration due to his GG, All-Star selection, Silver Slugger and 8th place finish in the MVP. At that point Mookie was the far superior player to JDM and was to earn $5MM more than him in his last arbitration year.. The 2021 contract that Mookie sought was $36MM for 12 years so he could spend his whole career as a Red Sox. It was a $9MM pay increase following his $7MM pay increase in 2020, his $10MM pay increase in 2019 and his $10MM increase in 2018 when he became arbitration eligible. These amounts reflected his growing performances and were completely fair including the $36MM he asked for. JDM got $22MM for 2018 to 2022 which took into account his age and his numbers declining at the end of the five years. His 173 OPS= in 2018 dropped to an outstanding 139 in 2019 and continued to curtail so $22MM was a fair price for the contract of 5 years.
Boston should have told Mookie he was worth $36MM just like they told JDM he was worth $22MM for five years. Bogey got extended at $20MM but DD knew he would earn an opt out by 2022 so he gave it to him so he could earn a fair value for his skills in 2022. It was clearly a much higher number that he had earned. I thought he was worth $30MM but if you gave him 3 years at $100MM total and then an opt out and 3 more years at $25MM I thought it would be fair for him taking a team friendly deal for $20MM. Story receiving $23.3MM was spitting in Bogey’s face. Bloom was a jackass for doing it. He was simply trying to dump the DD team not win championships. He succeeded but his last action with the Devers deal. He hung an albatross deal on the future GMs like Cherington did 10 years earlier. It’s a travesty that he wasn’t let go after 3 years.
So I think we agree that Boston screwed Bogey through Story but I still think both the JDM deal and what should have been the Mookie deal were fair prices for two guys who carried the team on their shoulders.
Johnny at Burger King just wants the Red Sox to make the playoffs.
John Henry and FSG have no plans of spending. They know that Pink Hats in Boston will still buy tickets and pack Fenway Park despite the laughable product on the field. They are worried more about Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion than they are in putting a solid team on the field.
Conservative mindset: literally everything bad is woke!!
Well, if the shoe fits.
I’m a moderate Democrat and despise both fringes. That said, Kevin’s post is pretty accurate. I’ve said it before, what ownership did to Tom Yawkey is as bad as it gets. We can’t re-write history and was Mr. Yawkey perfect? No one is but he grew up in a different world the same way future generations will be looking back on today. Mr. Yawkey saved the team so it could thrive in Boston and for many years was the Jimmy Fund’s biggest supporter.
Yawkey didn’t save the team. They were done by the mid sixties. Drew no one. Then 1967. That is what saved them.
Ignorance is bliss
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with diversity, equity and inclusion.
What’s wrong is that they’re forsaking what has helped them gain the ability to purchase other entities to the point that people, myself included, don’t go to games, won’t subscribe to their extremely overpriced streaming service, and won’t watch anything that might help them gain advertising money.
Life – Great post!
If they really don’t do anything more to try and improve the team this offseason, my own little protest will be to attend their road games … NO games at Fenway,or JetBlue, except when they honor the 2004 team. Let them practically give away the Fenway tickets again this year like they did last year.
Yeah, nothing wrong with hiring people based solely on race, gender, or sexuality instead of merit. You should definitely be judged on the color of your skin instead of the content of your character, MLK had it ALL wrong!
Literally nothing about the current state of the Red Sox relates to politics, at all, but thanks for going there
Great post!
If they really don’t do anything more to try and improve the team this offseason, my own little protest will be to attend their road games … NO games at Fenway,or JetBlue, except when they honor the 2004 team. Let them practically give away the Fenway tickets again this year like they did last year.
Yeah, it’s normal to have 5 different assistant GMs.
Have you looked at their Baseball Ops dept lately? They have 5 different assistant GMs for Christ’s sake, each one ticks a different DEI box. This allows FSG to benefit through WOTC tax benefits and put more $ in John Henry’s pockets.
And? That doesn’t have anything to do with not extending Mookie Betts.
You know exactly what John Henry is thinking? We all know he’s playing cheap, but to word it like the guy is your best friend and doesnt want success is a little unreasonable.
They are worried more about Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
============================
Stupid strawman argument. As I posted to the Cubs fan above, the RS went to downhill because they went all-in to win a WS in 2018, then doubled down in 2019 to try for that rare B2B. It didn’t happen, but I also didn’t mind them going for it.
But just like with the Cubs fan, there is ALWAYS a price to be paid. This had -0- to do with DEI.
Disingenuous
Embezzelment
Incompetence
People (right wing nuts) complain more about DEI than DUI.
Pathetic.
People (Left wing cucks) love to hire/promote people based off their gender, race, sexuality, etc. instead of their ability to do the job.
Pathetic.
Have another beer Kevin.
Have another soy latte whyhayzee.
Joe – nothing to do with DEI as regards roster construction, but, I do disagree with your casting of 2018/2019…
You always post referencing Boston’s payroll from those years and lambast them for not RAISING spending since that level while other MLB leading teams increased theirs…
And yet here, you say that spending was unsustainable, and the Bloom disaster was the price we had to lay as a result?
Which is it? The financial moves of bloom either were inevitable, in which case you’re wrong for criticizing BOS for not raising payroll, OR, the claim that blooms handling of all that premier talent was necessary is wrong, and, your criticism of Boston not raising payroll has been fair.
Which time do you admit to being wrong Joe?
Joe you hit the nail right on the head.
Additionally the Sox offered Mookie a contract very similar to what he got in LA and rejected it.
2nd base has been a mess since that POS Machado spiked Peddy. I believe Grissom will be a star for years.
YAZ – Do you consider NPV on contracts? Mookie got lots more from LAD than the $36/12 years his agent asked for because he got $65MM in 2020. That’s why his AAV is so low compared to the estimated $36MM Boston would have paid him.
Boston had no financial issues. How would they. They make obscene profits annually. The franchise value rises by Billions every 10 years. There was never a financial crisis. There was ownership hating to pay the luxury tax on their mistakes with Cherington. That’s all. DD told them it wasn’t on him so he spent under the CAP to put his team on the field and ignored the inherited mistakes because he had a job to do – TO WIN. And he did it very well.
Mookie’s $27MM in 2020 was a reasonable raise through arbitration based on his stellar stats and his ask of $36MM was a $9MM raise compared to the previous sequence of raises under arbitration of $7MM, $10MM and $10MM. Nobody should have been outraged at the request for $36MM from a guy performing at his level.
The Manny Machado spiking was a turning point in Red Sox history because the roster DD assembled was filled with all-stars and young stand outs. If Peddy is healthy who knows how many rings they win.
Grissom, for me, is all about his ability to hit for average. Got to have guys like that in the line-up. 2B needs to be a defender who can turn 2 and provide value at the plate. I think Grissom may never be an all-star but I think he will be an annually above league average player.
Get Braxton Garrett, Paul Blackburn or Kyle Freeland in to slot in at 3/4… sign Woodruff as a 2nd half starter… Bello has the stuff to be a solid No 2
Pivetta is under-rated, too
If they must go bargain hunting I’d love to see Woodruff on an incentive-laden 2 year deal.
Great post!
If they really don’t do anything more to try and improve the team this offseason, my own little protest will be to attend their road games … NO games at Fenway,or JetBlue, except when they honor the 2004 team. Let them practically give away the Fenway tickets again this year like they did last year.
I think that more work goes into building, or revamping, a team then a lot of people realize. He has made some moves…which hopefully bring about improvement, and doesn’t seem to be done yet.
Sherm – It’s already been 4 years of “hope”, how many more are you planning? Another 5 years of hope? 10 years? Until FSG sells the team?
Fever, some of us never gave the franchise ‘hope’ the last 4 years, and, vocally and FINANCIALLY protested.
I saw what was up, and, havent dropped a dime to support the team since.
I have to admit, after hearing details of what some sox offers were and how they were structured, it looks like ownership is giving Bresow a VERY short leash. Whether this represents a problem with ownership spending, OR them not wanting a rookie GM loading up the franchise with a huge pile of bad deals (like bloom started to) awaits to be seen.
But I am becoming disappointed and fear it may force Breslow to make a poor move from a position of weakness because he had to do ‘something’ via trade.
FSG will pretty much never sell the team, I can’t see the hopelessly fractured ownership agreeing to it.
I’m wondering if Breslow was sold a bill of goods or if he knows he has to be patient. If he was lied to, I’m wondering if his agent and lawyer are trying to undo the contract. it sounds stupid but why would such a bright man have taken this job?
Dewey – for one thing, he may have loved the organization from during his time there. It makes sense he liked Theo for obvious reasons, and that plus other Sox diaspora explains the Cubbies connection.
I do wonder if the public ‘full-throttle’ pitch matched what he heard during the interview. Then, he approached for parameters on different players to see what the organization would offer and found himself… somewhat hamstrung.
Still, even if that’s the case, you’d hope he’d plug one or maybe two holes with all his limited money this season, then look to the Sale +Jansen allocations to use next winter – thats a good $32+ million off the books to use on another hole. The team has closer-in-waiting candidates in Whitlock/Houck if nothing else. Martin and Jansen are luxuries when the SP rotation doesn’t get your 7-8-9 guys a lead.
I don’t think there’s too many arb raises projected for 2025.
GASox – I’m keeping my promise, not judging the offseason until about a month from now.
I will say this, if Gio is the only pitcher we acquire this offseason then I will be convinced that Henry, Kennedy, O’Halloran etc are a big part of the problem.
They’ve got the payroll flexibility, they’ve got the stacked farm system (or so we are told), there are NO EXCUSES for not doing EXACTLY what the Yankees have been doing … showing that last year was unacceptable.
Actions speak louder than words. If they are unwilling to do what it takes to acquire good players that are in demand, then everything they said about winning when they fired Bloom was total BS.
GA and Dewey = Where is it documented he didn’t get funding for a player? Are you certain he asked for money to beat out the competition?
I would find it more believable that the free agents didn’t want anything to do with Cora or the mess Bloom left. It probably looked like a rebuild and they didn’t want to be a part of that.
How do we blame specific people without a documented fact that the owners didn’t provide the money he needed? They provided it for Devers, Story, Yoshida, Giolito and O’Neill all very bad contracts in recent history.
I see the problem as Breslow not ownership. He has no experience at beating out other big market teams. He’s much like Bloom, way over his head so all the book smarts don’t translate to street smarts.
Fever – When you give up Mookie, JD, Bogey, Price and Nate you have lost 5 former all-stars. Not one was replaced so Breslow must use his money on all-stars unlike Bloom who did exactly what Breslow is doing now, focusing on lesser deals and not thinking how do i build up the REAL talent of the team. Grissom isn’t a sure fire all-star, neither is Giolito or O’Neill. Breslow MUST get all-stars!!! Letting NY outbid us for Soto was a HUGE mistake. We needed Soto despite having great young outfielders because the odds of any of them being as good as Soto is very small. We need impact players not guys who might have a good upside.
We need to seek out people who are looking to clear salary and offer prospects, Yoshida, Kenley, Martin, Story and Devers to get their all-star talent that needs to be purged. Soto was a perfect example. At his age, he could have been the replacement for Mookie we’ve needed for four years.
They need to seek out small market teams with all=star quality players and overwhelm them with prospects. I say go after Bobby Witt Jr. who should cost $10MM more in his first year of arbitration in 2025 and offer them anything they want in our minors. I say go get Tatis if we can. I say go get Burnes if we can. I say go get Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. I say go get Willie Adames and Devin Williams.
I know we can’t get all of them but go get as many ARB eligible players who are all-stars about to get big paydays in the near future and bring them to Boston so we replenish the 5 all-stars we lost under Bloom.
Breslow should use the list I just provided to go get our first new all-star not named Kenley Jansen since DD got JD Martinez in 2018!!!! Yes, it’s been that long since we acquired an all-star level player!!! That should not surprise anyone since the team has sucked during all the years we DID NOT acquire an all-star. Lets reverse the trend in 2024 and go get an all-star in a trade. Kenley was an all-star last year so he qualifies but does a .500 team really need a great closer or do they need top end pitchers and fielders who can hit and field that are all-stars? I say the later!!! It’s up to you Breslow!!!! Don’t be a Bloom aspire to be a DD!!
Dalbec and another prospect to Oakland for Blackburn and pray he stays healthy
No one wants Dalbec. He can be included but certainly not the centerpiece
“Exactly. The guy sounds like an Oakland A already”
His value is low but Bobby D is a perfect change of scenery guy to me.
I don’t think so. Guy can’t hit anything but a fastball
that is a good call
t’s already been 4 years of “hope”, how many more are you planning? Another 5 years of hope? 10 years? Until FSG sells the team?
I don’t believe anything I hear until I see trades or deals happen. Sources are contradictory all over the place. They said they want to go full throttle and after pitching but other sources say they won’t trade top prospects. Maybe the Sox are cheap, but the reporters aren’t getting it right either.
And I’m sorry to say but the proposed trades in this thread are ridiculous and one-sided. If you’re going to complain, at least come up with a decent trade that isn’t a pipe dream.
Jansen +cash to Texas for a SP prospect, Leiter or equivalent
You say the argument could be made that they’re better, yet you don’t make it.
It’s already been 4 years of “hope”, how many more are you planning? Another 5 years of hope? 10 years? Until FSG sells the team?
I have Zero issues with what we are doing. Great young nucleus and deep farm system. At no point should we overpay for mediocrity
I think they should wait until 24/25 to trade prospects for controllable pitching. They would sell low on Rafaela, Bleis, and Yorke at inflated prices for controllable pitching. Let prospects inflate their numbers and be closer to MLB-ready. The Sox need the second wave of Teel and Ahtony in Mayers in 2025 before they flip assets for pitching.
One more year of short-term free agents….sign Clevinger, Duvall, and a left-handed reliever (Moore or Chapman), and be more disciplined at the trade deadline when moving players for 2025 assets. If they don’t have a legit shot at the wild card…they can trade Jansen, Martin, Clevinger, Duvall, Pivetta, O’Neilleven Giolito, and the left-handed reliever they sign to increase assets for trading or controllable players from 2025 forward. The free agent pool will be deeper, and some big spenders have already committed big money moving forward. The team is better constructed for 2024, so just add a depth starter, RH OF bat- Duval to protect Devers, and some balance in the back end of the bullpen.
1. The Monty situation reminds me of JD before he signed with the Bosox. The price will come down by Feb 1. When that happens the Sox must step up.
AND
2. A trade for a 2d SP also needs to be done. Maybe Kenley for a couple of prospects who can be sent with one of Yorke/Valdez and or Bleiss for a potential #3 SP with a couple of years of control.
3. Move Houck to closer, use Pivetta/Crawford as SP #5 and swing man.
Anyone sign Brasier yet???
FUN FACTS about PAYROLL
NYY – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – negative $57.64MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $39.16MM
Payroll and Tax bill $333.89MM
LAD – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – negative $54.83MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $36.49MM
Payroll and Tax bill $328.,31MM
NYM – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – negative $60.19MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $41.61MM
Payroll and Tax bill $338.81MM
PHI – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – negative $0.70MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $0.35MM
Payroll and Tax bill $238.06MM ($100MM less than the Mets)
ATL – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – negative $31.20MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $10.71MM
Payroll and Tax bill $278.91
HOU – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – $11.10MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $0
Payroll and Tax bill $235.26
TEX – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – $36.13MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $0
Payroll and Tax bill $227.86
BOS – Estimated Competitive Balance Space – $61.39MM
Estimated Tax Bill for being over $0
Payroll and Tax bill $185.62
The Red Sox are spending nearly $150MM less than NYY, LAD and NYM.
That money is profits going to ownership. In a big market, it sure seems like more effective spending could be done to bring the talent level of the team closer to it’s competitors.
Spend wisely, but you must spend to compete which means the GM must ask for money to spend wisely. Breslow needs to think big at this point and go get some all-star quality players from teams not wanting to get nothing for free agents in the next two years.
I still say go get Jose Ramirez and Bieber and Bo Naylor. Jansen’s saves won’t matter on a 75 win team. Yoshi’s DHing is preventing Devers from DHing so Jansen and Yoshi need to go.
Wow, what an imaginative and and useless post. Assuming that if a team doesn’t spend at the same levels as NY and LA simply means they are “pocketing” the difference as profit, is just unsubstantiated. Its recognized that Cohen is using his own cash, so that’s operating at a loss. Then to suggest Cleveland will just willingly provide their best players, without even suggesting what Boston would be sending back, is laughable. Cleveland has a better chance of winning their division than Boston does.
Stymeedone – What a clueless response!!!
First, all facts so why would facts be useless?
Do you have a finance background? Where do you think the profits are going? Seriously, even a grade school student understands the basics of Revenues, Costs and Profits but you seem to think something magical happens and they don’t go to wherever the owners want them to go.
Next time you want to say something about Cleveland at least do your homework so you don’t seem so ignorant. It’s also not suggested that Boston was going to finish better than Cleveland. Cleveland has financial constraints and you should know that. They used to spend under $100MM in 2022 then in 2023 it grew to $136MM and that 36% increase led to a 3rd place finish and no playoffs. Their projected costs are at $126MM for 2024 in January!. They need to clear payroll and their two highest costs are Ramirez and Bieber at $33.3MM or 26% of their pay in two players.
The players we would send would be Mayer, Yorke, B. Jordan, Teel and Bleis. That’s the 11th and 82nd ranked prospects according to MLB and four top 100 prospects according to Baseball America. That would allow Cleveland to stock their farm system with quality prospects and reduce spending back to 2022 levers.
This is why guys like you should just read and not comment!!!
Stupidity
Butch – Don’t be so hard on styme. He wanted his 15 minutes of fame and fell on his face. No reason to further embarrass him!!
Jose Ramirez has a complete no trade clause. He signed a team friendly extension with Cleveland. He’s going to retire in Cleveland imo. He’s the rare player that doesn’t care as much about the money he’s very happy in Cleveland and unless something changes with that and he asks to moved he’s not going anywhere. It’s a non starter Jose Ramirez is not I repeat not going to be traded.
Bruin1012 – Didn’t realize you knew Ramirez so well. How often do you guys communicate with each other to be so sure of what he’s thinking?
A no trade clause may mean what you suggested or it may be there for a completely different reason. For example, if a player knows he’s taking less than his full value so the TEAM can get more talent then a deal offered that would help the organization might be something he is willing to discuss if it means he plays for another team. Boston would need to make this a Cleveland friendly deal that would motivate them to ask Ramirez to drop his no trade for the betterment of the team and organization.
You can’t assume the world won’t change given a situation that might be consistent with the reason he did the no trade clause. It never hurts to ask Cleveland. The worst they can do is say we love your offer but Ramirez refuses to drop the no trade even though it benefits the organization.
Your emphatic comments always force me to prove you wrong. You have no idea if he might drop it, you ASSUME he won’t. Your knowledge is no greater than anyone else who read that he had a no trade clause.
Wow the Sox are a train wreck. Seems like they don’t know if they’re coming or going. If they were willing to trade sale that seems to me like they have zero interest in competing in 24 so why not blow the whole damn thing up and load up with as many prospects as possible…
There’s not much of value to trade. Bloom didnt leave much behind.
You can’t really move all of Yoshida, Devers, Jansen, and Story or half your team CBT will be retained salary for guys who dont play here meaning you’ll never get ownership funding for acquisitions. They’re all terrible contracts as of today.
Guys like Wong and Mcguire, refsnyder and dalbec, etc etc have little to no value to other teams right now, they’re easily replaceable on the FA market for cheap.
Then you’re left with a pile of young players not far removed from prospect status, or, prospects still themselves. Prospects flame out at such a high rate, the devil you know is often better than the devil you don’t. Stick with the guys whose value and projectability you have a better handle on, not guys you don’t. Only move them to upgrade the mlb roster.
I think breslows moves with Verdugo and Sale IS like blowing up the team, Bloom just left it so messed up there weren’t many movable contracts or mlbers of value left!
Guys like Wong and Mcguire, refsnyder and dalbec, etc etc have little to no value to other teams right now, they’re easily replaceable on the FA market for cheap.
Not really because those guys are already cheap. Free agents come via a bidding process which naturally drives up their cost. Even the crappy ones, there are 30 potential employers as opposed to 1.
The key is finding the value out of these prospects and utilizing them properly. Same with their pitchers. Utilized properly, there is more talent on this team than the record has shown. Not tons more, but at least some.
GASoxFan48 mins ago
There’s not much of value to trade. Bloom didnt leave much behind.
================================
Fangraphs has us the #2 farm, so I assume there is a fair amount of value in there. And while I can’t drill into the number, I assume that it doesn’t include Casas, Duran, Abreu, etc.
Joe, read the rest of the comment, and the thread for context, before distorting via chopped down quotes
I clearly talked about non-prospects and no recently promoted players:
“Then you’re left with a pile of young players not far removed from prospect status, or, prospects still themselves.”
Then proceeded to address why you wouldn’t trade those for more prospects, which, was both what the reply and original post being responded to was with regard to.
Joe – We all know the #2 Farm is truly meaningless. Also, who is still included in the farm system? The star prospects from DD? It must be because Bloom’s guys suck other than Anthony.
Bloom destroyed the MLB roster by removing the all-stars from the 2018 team and he killed the farm system by making bad draft choices. Yorke, thought to be a great pick according to Bloom’s marketing department has turned out to be a bust, Mayer another highly publicized draft pick thanks to Bloom’s marketing department has had a less than stellar minor league debut too..
So if the new guys from Bloom aren’t that good and you are saying DD’s guys don’t count any more, what does that say about this rating system you rely on so heavily? It’s like I’ve always said, it sucks.
Boy i have to disagree. The Verdugo trade was a decent trade, especially if either of the young pitching prospects they got in return pan out. I love Chris Sale and hope he’s lights out for Atlanta, but it was time for him to go, they aren’t winning with or without him in 24, and Grissom will be a star just wait..
“Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”
They act like they already have a front of the rotation. They don’t.
Looks like another basement finish for the Red Sox. Should be some easy Ws for all the teams they play… well, except for Jokeland, Colorado and the Yankees.
Matz from the cards for Jenson
I doubt the Cards would do it, but I’d be glad to ship in for carfare if they did. Matz is pretty decent when healthy.
how does this writer even consider that the Sox are better right now than they were last year?
Because they’re .500 at 0 and 0. Duh.
Enrique Hernandez is not our starting shortstop anymore
All you need to know about the Red Sox – “Baseball players are expensive” – John Henry
The Sox are better in 2024:
1) Infield of Devers-Story-Grissom-Casas is better than last year…..how could they not be…Kiki at SS, revolving door at 2nd.
2) Duran-Abreu-O”Neill and hopefully Duvall and Rafaela will be better defensively just by moving Yoshida to DH.
3) Wong, Casas, Duran, Grissom, and Abreu are solid nuclei that will continue improving.
4) The rotation has more durability, and the bullpen is deeper with more depth in Worcester; if they add another SP, they can transition Winckowski to be a starter. This team will hang around for a wild card, they need to add a few more pieces, and they can play baseball and not suck. They are trending in a better direction and have plenty of cash to go big next offseason.
and Yoshida with no WBC, DHing, and better understanding of MLB travel and seeing pitchers…will be an elite contact hitter.
Prophet – No offense but take off the rose colored glasses!!!
Last year’s infield sucked. Devers can’t field at all, Story is adequate but can’t hit, Valdez and others gave moments to the season but no consistent contributions so Grissom might do better and Casas had a break-out second half that he will need to repeat for the whole season. But don’t be confused, that’s a terrible infield.
The outfield might improve if they let Abreu, Duran and Rafaela start for the team but O’Neill has been added and if he starts slowly that will take time from the better younger players and he will be given more rope than he deserves since he’s the new GM’s guy.
The catchers still suck. We don’t have a SP1 or SP2.
This team is trending down right now not up. Breslow hasn’t added anything of significance. Yes, formerly good players might rebound but that’s not a certainty. So, this team without Sale has less talent than a year ago when they finished last in the division.
Glad to see Teel is mentioned as off limits. Would be great to develop a stud C and keep him around.
swanhenge – A quick reality check. Stud catchers seldom to never happen. If he is, great but so many catchers have been touted to be great and turned up lame. Need a few reminders?: Here is a list of catchers drafted after 2000 during the first round and their draft spot
1st pick – Mauer worked out
3rd pick – Jeff Clement – not so good
4th pick – Jorge Sanchez – not so good
5th pick – Buster Posey – HOF, Matt Weiters – Not so much
6th pick – Kyle Skipworth – Not so much
10th pick – Jason Castro – Not so much
11th pick – Neil Walker – Not so much
13th pick – Brandon Snyder – Not so much
15th pick – Devin Mesoraco – Not so much
21st pick – JP Arencibia – Not so much
23rd pick – Maxwell Sapp – Not so much
24th pick – Landon Powell – A’s pick from BOS – Not so much
25th pick – Hyun Choi Conger – Scott Heard – Both not so much
28th pick – Daric Barton – David Parrish – Both not so much
30th pick – Mitch Maier – Not so much
Teel was a first round pick (14th) but that doesn’t suggest he will be anything more than a league average catcher. The odds of him being better or worse than that are about even. We all hope he is BUT he’s only played 26 games and so far so good so there should be optimism but that should be tempered by the odds of him being another Adley Rutschman or Buster Posey. Heck, I’d be happy if he was only a Realmuto level player. It won’t be easy and it’s not likely but we can all hope.
FYI.. a stud catcher in today’s world is a slightly above league average hitter with a quick release and accurate arm.
You put a lot of research into that. Thank you for helping redefine my opinion.
Lets overpay for mediocrity. Umm no. U can have Sonny gray , head case stroman, imanga and 5 inning Snell. This ownership is not cheap they are brilliant. 4 rings in 20 years. Stop sounding like entitled dopes
I like what you’re saying. I wouldn’t go so far as to call them brilliant but they certainly learned their lessons from Crawford and Price contracts.
People in here keeps demanding they spend. I’m fine with them waiting on spending until they can get the right players.
I like Montgomery, he’s the only guy worth paying left on the market. Ohtani and Yamamoto were the only other two and they both got stupid amounts of money.
Devers, Story, possibly Yoshida -time will tell- show they haven’t learned lessons from signings like Crawford and Price, not to mention Panda and Hanley.
They spend when they feel the PR pressure to make a move and their GM hasnt, and, it ends badly.
GA – Doing an analysis the other day I realized that the six bad finishes that have plagued the organization all came during Cherington’s and Bloom’s tenure.
Cherington passed on $41MM of dead contracts to DD and they lasted until Bloom. If he does a better job, who knows where Boston would be today since they wouldn’t have gone over the CAP during DD’s time so the need to get under would not have existed.
TF – did you include in your analysis that the biggest deals that top brass had a push in – Panda, Hanley, Price all had a similar trajectory, and now, they add Devers on the pile? 😉
A quick reality check. Stud catchers seldom to never happen. If he is, great but so many catchers have been touted to be great and turned up lame. Need a few reminders?: Here is a list of catchers drafted after 2000 during the first round and their draft spot
1st pick – Mauer worked out
3rd pick – Jeff Clement – not so good
4th pick – Jorge Sanchez – not so good
5th pick – Buster Posey – HOF, Matt Weiters – Not so much
6th pick – Kyle Skipworth – Not so much
10th pick – Jason Castro – Not so much
11th pick – Neil Walker – Not so much
13th pick – Brandon Snyder – Not so much
15th pick – Devin Mesoraco – Not so much
21st pick – JP Arencibia – Not so much
23rd pick – Maxwell Sapp – Not so much
24th pick – Landon Powell – A’s pick from BOS – Not so much
25th pick – Hyun Choi Conger – Scott Heard – Both not so much
28th pick – Daric Barton – David Parrish – Both not so much
30th pick – Mitch Maier – Not so much
Teel was a first round pick (14th) but that doesn’t suggest he will be anything more than a league average catcher. The odds of him being better or worse than that are about even. We all hope he is BUT he’s only played 26 games and so far so good so there should be optimism but that should be tempered by the odds of him being another Adley Rutschman or Buster Posey. Heck, I’d be happy if he was only a Realmuto level player. It won’t be easy and it’s not likely but we can all hope.
FYI.. a stud catcher in today’s world is a slightly above league average hitter with a quick release and accurate arm.
Arguably the most underrated stadium in all of sports.
They have made the decision not to spend! They should because if your winter events look more like the A’s events then things are not good! John Henry wants the best players but only if their cheap!
Anyone think John Henry may be prepping to sell the team?
John Henry is the ultimate coward for backing out of the winter weekend “celebration”!He was shamed last year by the fans vocal displeasure. He would rather sit in his luxury suite and count his unearned profits. The sheep will still go to Fenway for the tourist attraction factor.Whether they watch the diminished on field product or not! Cha ching says John “the fraud” Henry!!!
I like Henry as an owner, but it is incredibly weak to only show up when you are winning.
I’m fed up with disingenuous comments. Just be straight with people and stop talking about going “full throttle”.
You wouldn’t have to hide if you stopped lying.
In my country, bailing out when things aren’t going so well is a sports fans biggest sin. Character revealing. Guaranteed mocking. The number of baseball fans who admit to it blows my mind.
What do folks in this forum think of the Sox signing Dylan Bundy to a one year contract?
More likely they sign Al “four touchdowns in one game” Bundy!
Sorry, Knuckles – I meant Trevor Bauer and not Dylan Bundy. No wonder you replied with an Al Bundy joke!!
Oops. I typed Dylan Bundy but was thinking of Trevor Bauer.
Stratcolonel = I would endorse it if he promised to aggravate the crap out of Cora. He would a SP2 if he hadn’t been away for so long. I completely disagree with the commissioner’s decision on his case especially in light of what he gave Cora.
If he would sign for $10MM or less for a year, I’d be fine with that. It’s less risk than Giolito or O’Neill.
I wouldn’t hate it on a minor league deal, but I wouldn’t want anything guaranteed. Dude looked completely toast in AAA last year
Breslow is high or a moron. We’re missing opportunities to improve the team. Are the Sox any better?
NO a thousand times NO!
Think an easier argument could be made that this team on paper is worse than last year. Rotation is middling at best (with no real faith that they’ll make any significant upgrade to improve it).
There’s simply zero investment. Leads you to wonder why did they even bother extending Devers?
Because he’ll be in his prime to help lead the next generation when they break in.
Because Henry was being ridiculed after being heckled and lambasted at the hockey game at fenway and winter fest town hall.
After a massive groundswell of negative press about handling of stars from both the front office and players aspects, he gave orders to sign the last, and most expendible/least worth keeping but only piece left, regardless of cost.
Thus that idiotic and crippling contract
GASox – Of course all that was true, but the reality is the Red Sox backed themselves into a corner. They let Mookie and Xander go, so Devers was the only one of the three homegrown superstars left. They had to sign him, due to their own incompetence. It wasn’t just about PR, they would be a 95-loss team without him.
Fever – I have to disagree. Devers’ 30 hrs bring less value than all his many many charged and even more uncharged errors over at 3B.
For 30+ million you can get much better D and replace those HRs. For example, you could replace his offense with soler for much less money, and turn 3B over to someone who understands how to play a position.
Then you can do ALL that without paying a guy into so many years its all bur certain to end really badly.
GASox – I totally agree errors are NOT a dependable stat anymore.
The Red Sox stayed in the postseason chase as long as they did last year because of one reason: They were 6th in MLB for batting with RISP.
Turner had the 5th-highest OPS with RISP in all of MLB, with a .943 OPS …. you think that’s gonna be easily replaced?.
Devers had the 7th-highest OPS with RISP last year at .929.. His primary value has always been driving in runs. He was 16th in 2022, 10th in 2021, 14th in 2020 and 16th in 2019.
I like Soler, but his .805 career OPS with RISP could not replace Devers’ .910 career OPS with RISP.
And defensively? Soler is ranked 7th-worst in all MLB (133 qualified players) with a -16.4 Defensive Value … which is worse than even Yoshida.
Compare that to Devers who is ranked 84th with a -5.8 Defensive Value..
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?type=6&sor…
Sorry but Devers is not nearly as bad an all-around player as you think … especially if you think Soler would be a better replacement for him.
Fever – what you’re missing is that I wouldnt play Soler, or another much cheaper replacement, in the field…. I’d DH him 😉
And that’s something the Sox aren’t doing with Devers at his price tag. I argue you can replace Devers offensive production with a DH, then getting someone else to play in the 8 field position slots that is a defensive upgrade.
One thing you’ve got to put into context about RISP hitting… a piece of it is ability to not be impacted by the pressure… BUT an even bigger piece is your protection in the lineup, a function of both who is around you and where in the order you line up.
I don’t see the marlins or royals are particularly deep teams giving a guy better pitches to hit, wouldn’t you agree?
And the final piece of the puzzle is, the player’s worth compared to their albatross contract. Is any *slight* edge they’ve got compared to another player worth the premium aka difference between the two contracts?
M.Kit – They extended Devers because Bloom knew he was toast and he thought it might make his demolition complete if he saddled the team with a horrendous contract for the next decade.
Bloom’s destruction was comprehensive.
I never thought that I could despite some one more than George Steinbrenner, until John Henry became this cocky MF#$*@ who laughed at us and looked his watch on last year Town Hall it’s gonna be tough for me not follow my Red Sox this year, i refuse to spend a penny on any product that can make this CMF more $$$
There’s a different type slider being thrown since 2018 that’s why there’s a Sweeper pitch.
The person behind it is Roger Beshens, ML pitchers tell him what game they throw his “Football Slider” Musgrove, Taillon, Glasnow talk it all the time.
Google “Roger Beshens Brandon McCarthy twitter” click images.
AIMLB – Did you live through productivity studies, downsizing, right sizing and 10 other names for the same process?
The Sweeper is horse crap. What do you think Eckersley threw? It’s not new it’s just labeled differently. Kinda like the cutter that was a tight slider 40 years ago. Or the launch angle which used to be call upper cutting.
Guys have experimented with swinging, pitching, fielding, throwing from the infield and outfield since 1870. Trends come and go but it’s the same basic game except now there is no contact and the games are shorter so fans who never wanted to be fans aren’t bored.
Are you kidding me, every pitcher since the beginning of baseball wished they knew how to throw the Roger Beshens football slider.
Look at Ohtani, he wouldn’t be an elite pitcher without that pitch and if Babe Ruth threw it Babe certainly would have avg more than 5 k’s a game!! Only Stroman said he threw it and then didn’t for a few years which was BS, he’s insecure like Glasnow, Glas said he threw a slutter which was the football slider and Taillon said the football slider was a Whirly. Why don’t you understand any of this?
MLB baseball reference contacted Roger Beshens in Nov 2018 saying “Lets call if football slider for now”
Verlander threw a different slider in Detroit than Houston, why is that?
He realized the Traditional sliders off center grip and bad tilt was nothing compared to the football slider.
Of Course the Sweeper is horse crap it’s what a pitch does it sweeps, it’s shouldn’t be a TYPE of pitch.
Andrew Miller threw a sweeping sweeper slider.
Ron Guidry, Steve Carlton, Blake Snell, Cole, Glasnow throw a more over the top vertical drop slider. They are ALL the same “football” slider, just thrown from different arm angles.
Where you miss the boat big time is, Roger Beshens created the “Football SLider” revolution in MLB in May 2018 from his 7000 messages on Twitter to MLB pitchers how to throw his football slider. He didn’t create the pitch he created 600 guys now in MLB throwing it.
WHy do you think there’s Sweeper, Seam shifted wake nonsense out there? Pitching ninja and Al Leiter talk seam shifted wake which is my football slider
LOL Why do you think Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry, Andrew Miller didn’t tell anyone how to throw their slider? CAUSE IT WAS BETTER than everyone else’s and they wanted to keep it that way!
If decades back Football Slider was WELL KNOWN pitchers wouldn’t have certainly averaged more than 5 k’s a game.
A slider thrown over the top or side arm is still a slider.
This sweeper is a totally different pitch. The Grip, Tilt is different than the traditional slider.
It isn’t even a slider when the wrist is rolled.
The Sweeper is the Roger Beshens Football SLider just thrown from a lower arm angle.
Roger should get the credit cause he’s the one’s that in May 2018 started getting, Glasnow, Musgrove, Taillon, Kuhl, Crick in Pitt alone!!! THat’s a heck of a feat from a computer. Ray Searage even said Glasnow got a tip in Pitt and it wasn’t from him! Ray said he doesn’t want to elaborate on it any cause he doesn’t want to give anyone a tip.
The more you know. Brandon McCarthy and Derek Holland
AIMLB = Because the spin of the baseball has a finite number of ways it can happen and a finite number of ways to release the ball from either hand no pitch is a new pitch. Sure, we call things that have been done the exact same way in the past by new names but that’s all it is.
I starting pitching in 1962 and I started experimenting with the spin on the baseball and arm angles in 1965. At that time there were very few words designated for pitches you threw and how you threw them. Now we have dozens of new names for thing that have been done for 140 years of baseball.
Finding a new grip and release method is NOT something new and if nobody named it before a specific point in time that doesn’t mean it didn’t exist. I played quarterback and pitched in HS and College. I experimented with arm angle, spin on the ball, lack of spin on the ball and direction of rotation. and speed on the ball. I had 3 official different pitches in that I had a fastball, curve ball and a change-up. If I still pitched today I would have more pitches than Bauer or Yu Darvish!!
The latest names are great. The official definition of the process of throwing it is great so others can try to do the same. Is it NEW? Absolutely not. Will it get guys out for a long time? No. Adjustments will be made and new techniques will need to be chosen to stay ahead of the hitters. Bruce Sutter came up with one of the most unique pitches ever used in MLB baseball until that time. Within 5 years, it was commonplace.
The sweeper of today was called a curve ball in the 1960s. Everyone who threw a pitch with sweeping break all did it in an original way that wasn’t named but the pitch looked the same and broke the same way. Did Eckersley’s side arm curve behave like a sweeper? Yep. Was it called a sweeper? Nope. It was probably called a side arm curve ball or a side arm slider depending on who was reporting it. Was it effective like the modern day sweeper? Yep. Then hitters adjusted and put the onus on the pitchers to adjust to get them out again.
Baseball is over 140 years old and there are some new rules but the basics of the game are timeless. Trends come and go based on how quickly the opposition adjusts to the new unique pitch or way of hitting. That’s the beauty of the game!!
Brandon McCarthy asked me to teach him my football slider in May 2018, he made 74 M over 13 seasons and he asked ME to teach him, he got back to me an he used it June 2 2018 vs Nat’s in that game 34’k’s Jesse Biddle whiffed 8 in 3 IP 5 with my football slider. He asked John Smoltz how he threw his slider in March and that didn’t work out for him so well so he asked me.
Im behind the Sweeper, its a terrible choice of a name of a pitch. MLB isn’t going to call it the RB Football Slider which it really is. Baseball reference Tom Tango contacted me in Nov 2018 even saying “Lets call it football slider for now”
All these messages are on my Twitter and google images.
This football slider was thrown by Carlton, Guidry, Miller, but they didn’t tell anyone cause this football slider was much better than everyone else’s traditionally learned slider cause they had a different grip and tilt.
Explain how you threw your slider and how you threw your curve,
Do you even know why a slider is called a slider, a curve is called a curve and a sweeper is called a sweeper?
If Ron Guidry told all the Yankees pitchers in 1978 how he threw his football slider. They would have been the 2017 Astros and the Astros are still throwing it and they will throw it forever cause that’s a way a slider should be thrown,
The traditional slider was flawed by a bad grip and less than optimal tilt cause of that bad grip. You can’t have a off center grip and a true football tilt, that’s a injury waiting to happen plus the fingers would be too far in front of the ball, less velocity, harder to command and the result would be worse. Verlanders slider in Detroit was a late horizontal break when he came to Houston it was 2 plane break which is the football slider.
Bleis is a deal-breaker. He’s going to be great.
I kind of think the Sox are doing fine. They are going to benefit from younger players with new growth taking on bigger roles. The rotation still seems like a problem, but most of the issues were injury-related. Two of the injury-prone guys are gone. We just need some momentum, and this team could easily get a wild card spot.
The money they’ve saved will help in the future when a player they need becomes available.
Cleveland – Why is Bleis going to be great as opposed to Anthony, Rafaela or Abreu?
Also, if the owners make $300MM a year and our CAP is significantly higher than where we are now, is there really a need to keep a reserve for a rainy day or could we dip into the $300MM if something happens?
Ownership has lost all cred.
Full throttle, baby.
Where’s Buddy LeRoux and Lou Gorman when you need them?
I hope that a certain long game is in play right at the moment. Roki Sasaki asked to be posted by his team this offseason, but the team did not comply (there was a question here in the US press over whether his contract could allow him to force his exit for the American market, but apparently not). So, maybe next year. Perhaps the Sox are doing exactly what the Dodgers did in 2022 when they spent nothing so they could splurge on Ohtani in 2023. Maybe the Sox (yes, this is overly hopeful) are spending nothing now in the hopes of luring Sasaki in 2024. Could Sasaki want to carve his own American turf away from the shadow of other Japanese pitchers? If so, he might not be interested in Dodgers, Cubs, Mets. Maybe the Sox could really be a viable destination, having had a couple of years off since going large on the Devers extension. Something exotic to hope for. For the present, the unglorious seems likely–Paxton, Junis (swing), Moore (LH relief)–something like that.
Horace – Boston won’t play the game the way the Dodgers did. First, NYY and LAD think of the CAP as a speed bump but Boston for some unknown reason thinks of it as a stop sign or an electric fence they can jump but they must come back over it quickly.
LAD pushed all that money into the future to drop $70MM to Ohtani to $46.08MM and they still are $55MM over the CAP in January. Boston won’t do ANYTHING like LAD does because the owners don’t think out of the box. In fact, most fans aren’t even sure they think since they fired DD after bringing a winner to Boston then hired an idiot to completely tear down the organization to the ground.
Ohtani’s pitching has uplifted expectations about other Japanese pitchers facing MLB hitters. Reality will hit this year and you’ll want to rethink Sasaki and others since Yamamoto is likely to struggle and all those downstream Japanese pitchers signed in the last month.
If Boston went large on Sasaki it would be like going large on Devers, a TOTAL MISTAKE. Large contracts should go to known and proven commodities not new comers. That’s bad baseball planning.
This year Boston has some nice young arms that compliment their nice young outfielders. They can use 2024 to develop their DD farm guys so by 2025 Breslow might finally do his job and add all-stars. Maybe among Casas, Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Abreu, Grissom, Bello, Houck, Crawford and Bleis they might get an all-star or two home grown. Purchasing two to four would be great too because we need an all-star 3B. If Devers can DH then we might have vastly improved defense. If Story can recover his past and hit again he is a potential all-star. The only place we don’t have a player who is a potential all-star is catcher until Teel arrives.
Does 2024 look good? NOPE. We still have Cora and Devers at 3B. Can it be a great development year? Yes, but the idiot manager must buy into it and play the best players not the ones he likes or is related to.
Is there any reason that a move should be made that doesn’t fit into the vision of where Boston can be in 2025? NOPE.
I’m not going to blame Craig, but I’m afraid that the Sox hired another scapegoat, just one without a name. A lot of this is ownership, and it’s time for us fans to see that for what it is. He’s not going to get full reign and we know it. Let’s just take our losses and call it good.
SoxBruins – I have yet to see the interference from Ownership that you suggest. Did they interfere with Mookie? Absolutely and it got DD fired. Have they interfered with any other deals since then ? Not that I’m aware of. In fact, I strongly believe Bloom chose not to pursue expensive talent because it’s not the TB way. He was inexperienced and egotistical to think he had a way for a big market team to rise to greatness using small market moves. He failed miserably and took down the whole fan base in doing so.
Breslow needs to tell the public that the owners are saying no for me to believe it. I think he’s not submitting big money requests because free agent won’t come to Boston due to the manager and the likelihood of winning in the AL East. Breslow needs to be the rebirth of Dave Dombrowski in Boston. Go after quality players for big bucks and convince them Boston can turn things around quickly. Chris Young just did it in Texas. Breslow needs to be the type of guy that can land a Seager and Semien in the same year. We need a SP1 and SP2 and he needs to go get them for us to make significant improvements in 2024.
Is Boston supposed to be a contender in 2024?
Were TEX & AZ supposed to be contenders in 2024.? Were the Sox supposed to be a contender in 2013?
No trumbo, they aren’t.
Let’s wait until ST to see what the roster looks like. There’s time left to alter the trajectory. Not much, but some. I like the moves that were made aside from Sale, but even him I understand the why. I just hoped he’d rebound this year, he was doing well until that comebacker freak injury last year.
I hoped he’d rebound, they’d either exercise the option or he’d restructure an extension next season that would keep him in boston for a few more years till the end of his career. But oh well.
If he had to go anywhere, I’m glad it was Atlanta, my #2 team I’d followed since moving to GA in ’09, back in the days when we didn’t have a DH and the managerial chess matches in the NL were still a thing.
GAsox, I appreciate the cliff notes. Hard to keep up with every team these days.
Let’s go ownership…push that throttle down & get things done.
2 SP: sign Jordan Montgomery then trade for Jesus Luzardo
1 LRP: sign Wandy Peralta or Andrew Vazquez
Need a power bat in lineup: sign Soler
OF of O’Neill (LF) Duran (CF) Soler (RF) I would be fine with.
Rotation of Monty, Gio, Luzardo, Pivetta and Bello…looks alot better then the past several yrs!!
Trade Jansen and quit just fumbling around then make Houck the closer.
All of these moves would make Breslow look like he does know what he is there for!
Patience has run out…get back in the running and be a contender, not a basement bottom dweller!
Hitman – what would you realistically trade for Luzardo knowing the asking prices we hear rumored for young controllable SP this offseason? Remember to consider the needs of your trading partner, not just who you don’t want.
Then, knowing what we hear about payroll constraints Breslow is under, how do you pay for Montgomery, Peralta/Vazquez, and Soler? Include what you think $$$/years gets it done.
Finally, how much money do you think you need to attach to Jansen to move him, and to whom?
These are the problems, and, remember, top FAs are declining to even visit and sit down with Breslow because of how tarnished the organization’s reputation has become since August 2019. So be reasonable as to pote till overpays needed to get deals done
GASox – to answer questions…
In my honest opinion I would trade any player from the farm system besides Abreu, Anthony, Teel, Rafaela & Fitts for Luzardo.
We are currently what…50+ mil under tax hit so offer a 4 yr deal for Monty, his current listed value is $18.4m so offer him 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30 with opt out after year 3. Peralta is currently valued at $7m, offer 3 yrs at 7, 8.5, 10 with opt out after 2nd yr. Soler is currently valued at $13.85m, offer 2 yr deal (30m) 14, 16…those deals would add 43.5m to current roster. But as you say it may take more because of how the BoSox look from all the BS that has gone on.
As far as Jansen, I would offer up to 1/3 of his pay to move him, if it doesn’t happen then so be it but use him and Houck as dual closers that way Houck get in a rhythm for future.
Thoughts?
Team looking to add bullpen help and possibly being a fit for Jansen would be the Texas Rangers since they lost Smith, Stratton and Chapman.
Thanks for playing the game, much better than most who post their game plan without actual thoughts how to accomplish it.
Here’s my overall thoughts on all the above guys, since you played its only fair to give my thoughts…
I’m sure it awaits to be seen, but, my guess is this…
To get Luzardo, Miami probably wa to a package of at least 4 prospects. Definitely would want Mayer, one of anthony/bleis, maybe parales, and you have a shot of throwing them two lesser pieces or someone else in the sox top-25. That might start a conversation, although, they may insist on another of your untouchables instead.
I don’t think Breslow has an OK to spent up to the CBT, I really don’t. Its nice to think he does, but, given the chatter we hear, and the relative lack of forceful pushback noise about the rumors needing to clear payroll space mixed with how the payroll shedding happened so far… I don’t think you’ve got that space to work with.
Aside from that, let’s walk through.
I don’t see montgomery taking a 4 year pact. I think it takes 6 in the end, and boras will push for 7. FWIW, mlbtr forecast a 6/150 @ 25m aav before Nola brought 7/172, 34 year old Lugo took 3/45, the health question mark erod took a 4/80m base worth up to 100m, glass Glasnow 5/135, giolito with his own 19m aav pillow deal with boston, amd the also 34 yr old Gray at 3/75.
I get you’re paying up some to go short at 4 years, but, I think he’s going to get more lucrative offers elsewhere. Time will tell.
Peralta should JUMP at the deal you offered, but, I’d be uneasy. His FIP over 5 and xFIP of 4.5 are iffy, and as a ground ball high contact pitcher the red sox IF defense is a problem. Devers we know stinks. Story played ++ defense in his limited action on return, but Casas was poorly graded across the board on D, and, new 2B grissom graded poorly in a short sample at both 2B and SS. He followed up a 4 error 40 game effort in ’22 with a 6 error 23 game effort in ’23, and a pretty even split between fielding and throwing ones. He still has his FB speed, but, between age and how volatile RP are, the pitches outside the strike zone worry me. I forgot in my first response Vasquez signed back with DET on a new deal, probably much the same you did in yours.
Soler is being courted by TOR, who has a better team and chance of winning, and, is expected to get at least the deal you propose. However, I dont think thays the only issue… he hasn’t played sustained OF defense, and, as it goes without saying, RF in fenway really needs a CF level athleticism to patrol well. His peak OF was a bit over 700 innings in 2021. Most other seasons it was under 400, and only 240 last year. Famgraphs lists him as a slightly negative arm, negative range, negative DRS, negative UZR, negative OAA and negative RAA. I think the rigors of fenway are a poor fit for him as a fielder, and, then you’ve got the Yoshida problem.
Yoshida hit worse as a DH than he did as a OFer. As a LF he slashed .309/.351/.481, .832 ops and 122 wRC+. As a DH, .255/.317/.388, .705 ops and 89 wRC+.
Not every guy is cut out for DH, so I’m not sure. His PH was small sample, but even worse than his DH – a putrid .167/.286/.167 slash, .452 ops, and only a 31 wRC+. So it’s a pretty risky proposition to move the $18m off the field. You could say you’d swap him and Soler at that point, but, given the holes on the team, and the fact that O’neill has been even worse as a DH/PH than Yoshida, I question the fit.
Soler would NEED to be the DH by process of elimination – but the team is BETTER with either Devers or Casas in the DH slot.
For almost the same money, I question if Hoskins might be a better DH/1B bat. Probably can be had for a similar contract, and, although he doesn’t play GG defense, he IS better defensively than Casas and excels at DH. Should Casas fail to learn to be a better defender, Rhys could slot in place and bump Casas to DH status. Also recall BOS is looking at dalbec and Reyes as it’s 1B depth options, where as OF has LOTS of young depth just waiting for opportunities.
As for Jansen, his age and ok but not great production makes 11m a little steep, but not impossible to move. You just may not be able to do it right away. Instead I prefer to either eat MORE of his salary to get a closer to ready SP prospect, or, eat less of his salary to get a LRP. You know who could fill either pathway? TEX who is also coincidently without their CP anymore. They like and likely want Hader, and if they get him, Jansen/Hader is a nice 8/9 combo. And if they DONT land hader, they already have a fallback option. And either Bradford/Burke are an OK return for Jansen + some cash to me.
GASox – the other option is to sign Merrifield…he plays OF and 2B if Grissom is unable to handle it, then Abreu comes in to RF. I know he is getting up there in age (almost 35) but I believe a 2 yr deal at 7 & 8.5 could nab him, especially since his current value is listed at $6.45m. I honestly think this would be a better fit then Soler & his overpricing for his swing and miss ways!
But again hitman, why the need for another OFer?
If you look at the current projected depth chart, there’s a lot of guys with OF experience on the 40 man, but, only 3 real corner infielders. Valdez has a very little at 3rd in the minors, and Reyes even less. Neither has 1b to speak of. Refsnyder did less than 200 innings work at 1b in 2016. And probably a total of 50 innings or so combined scattered over the last 7 seasons combined since then.
As of now, dalbec is your only real corner infielder backup on the 40 man. If that doesn’t scare you, it should.
You’ve got a couple NRI guys who you might stash one or two in the minors, if they performed in the spring, but, that’s not much consolation in a game situation.
One of blooms failings was to stockpile guys too heavily in the same position, then expect them to play out of position and have it work.
Had breslow moved a bunch of the kids for elite SP that could change my mind. But I’d rather buy corner IF help on the FA market and keep the young cheap kids.
GASox – trying to think of some protection for Devers in the line up, that is why the story about Soler came about. We all know the IF positions are pretty much set…like it or not, Cora has his pencil ready to fill out the card.
As far as Breslow moving the kids for a SP, that can still be accomplished in Miami if he pulls his head and gets it done.
GA – The young kids are both future stars and pretenders. The trick is to weed them out properly like DD did. Everyone has an opinion and here is mine: The outfield has Duran who possesses unique speed. If he can get on base .at a .330 to .350 clip he’s valuable and could be a potential all-star if his average can stay above .300. Rafaela is the best athlete and gives the offense a dimension only Duran has, top end speed. He’s also one of the most versatile players in the organization. He could take over 3B for Devers, SS for Story, CF for Duran, LF for Yoshida or RF. He can’t catch or pitch but he’s nearly the best defender at the other 7 positions and he possesses a cannon arm. Can’t trade him because he’s likely to be a significantly higher than league average player. Anthony is young and has a small sample size but he’s hit better than all the 1st rounders from Bloom as well as Casas, Duran and Rafaela. He’s not fast but could be an excellent power guy. He fits perfectly long term in LF. He should not be traded. These three players are the elite farm players.
Teel may join them by the end of 2024 but it’s too early to call.
Pretenders are ANY FARM HAND who doesn’t project to at least above league average. The earlier you recognize their shortcomings the sooner you should deal them. Friedman has perfected this technique as witnessed in the Betts deal. We got three pretenders that he raved about and pumped up their prospect ratings. Brilliant yet devious move on his part and Bloom fell for it. We need to do the same for many, many of the recent draft picks who haven’t shown the high upside they should have considering where they were picked. Mayer was injured but before the injury was not a stellar #4 pick, he was a mid round pick from a performance stand point, Yorke had a fast start and fizzled as he faced better pitching. B Jordan started fast and faded. FYI… Jeter Downs started fast and faded before we could move him.
That’s why Breslow needs to empty most of the farm system like DD did. He needs to prune the pretenders by pretending they have better futures than they do. With every game that passes the pretenders will be identified as pretenders and their value will fall thus reducing their trade value or their value to the organization. This is the part of baseball that separates the great GMs from the not so great GMs. Dombrowski was outstanding in Boston because he pruned 1/2 dozen pretenders and brought back Sale, Pomerantz and others. Breslow needs to move quickly and pump of the value of guys like Bleis, Jordan, Mayer, Yorke, and all the SSs in the system who are great depth but little value like Zanetello, Bonaci, Cespedes, Hamilton, Paulino and Arias.
Get whatever you can from these guys even if it’s just another young pitchers with upside. Clearing out the trash picks by Bloom before you have to DFA them is an exercise Breslow can do while sitting on his hands trying to address the big issues.
Bonaci is unlikely to ever be allowed in the US again he’s completely unmovable he’s in the same boat as Franco very unlikely to ever play in the US again.
Cespedes was utterly dominant in the DSL as a 17 year old. He’s very likely to skip the FCL and start right at Salem next year. It’s way way too early to call him a pretender. In fact he did what he needed to do in DSL as a 17 year old. Let’s see what he looks like at Salem as an 18 year old before calling him trash.
Zanatello struggled but in such limited opportunities way too early to call them him a trash pick. Arias another very young kid way too early to call him a trash pick and he looked good in the DSL as well as a 17 year old.
The three best prospects the Red Sox have are all Bloom picks. You can say what you want about Bloom but he did a solid job in building the minor league system. Bloom’s handling of the big club is what got him fired not what he did in the minors.
On a side note watch Blaze Jordan this year. He hit really well last year in Greenville before his promotion to AA Portland where he struggled. He has lost 20 pounds this off-season looks great much quicker defensively I’m guessing he could stick at third defensively with his new found quickness and the guy has hit at every level and I expect him to hit at Portland next year. He seems to take time to adjust he struggled upon his initial call up to High A in 2022 but completely dominated offensively in 2023 High A before being called up. I think he is an under the radar guy that is going to have a big 2024.
Bruin1012 = Pretenders aren’t trash. They are upside limited prospects with more rep than skill.
Prospects like Casas, Duran, Houck, Rafaela, Bello and even your man Abreu are the best BOSTON has to offer. Anthony has yet to prove anything close to DD’s big six.
Bloom got great draft picks from failure and NONE of those picks other than Anthony have done anything worthy of bragging.
I hadn’t heard about Bonaci but after I read what you wrote I found out he was allowed to participate in Arizona this past fall after the domestic violence issue this past summer. Either way, he’s not a future all-star based on his inability to dominate in 3 seasons in the lower minors. He may come up and be slightly above league average but the odds are against it so he’s a pretender, very tradable.
Cespedes was good in a league that is close to high school level elite tournaments. His last name makes him more valuable than his skills. Thus, he’s a pretender at 17. If he actually dominates a lower level of the minors he could get reclassified but for now, his upside has not presented itself thus a pretender.
Zanatello struggled. That’s all I need to read. Future all-stars don’t struggle like he did at two locations against weak pitching.
Arias has inflated numbers vs international pitching. It means nothing. He could prove to be a real prospect not a pretender but he’ll have to face pitching at the low levels of the minors and dominate. If not, he is a pretender.
Bloom clearly mishandled the MLB team but guys like you misrepesent the accomplishments of Bloom and DD. DD had the lower draft picks and did more with them than Bloom. The big six from DD won’t be matched by Bloom’s picks. Anthony looks to be the only one heading in that direction and sure the 17 year old kids MIGHT but the odds are against it and we can wait to see them not dominate the lower levels of the minors before we call them pretenders but it’s also unfair to suggest they will be more than league average when they get older.
Blooms picks have sucked so far except Anthony. It’s that simple. DD’s got six guys in the majors contributing to the success of the Red Sox. Go ahead and keep telling yourself Bloom did a good job. It’s a fantasy to think so since reality differs with your opinion.
B Jordan is a PERFECT example of a pretender. Like Yorke and other Bloom guys he starts fast at ROK ball and jumps into a high prospect ranking just to fall way back as he fails at the next level. That’s not the pattern of a future all-star. He’s got a very limited upside so Breslow needs to wait and see if he can have a good year against AA ptichers before he can trade him with greater value. He’s still a pretender.
Nothing you wrote changes anything because it was all you trying to pump up the reality of Bloom’s failed draft picks. Why? I have no idea. To suggest he improved the farm system is a joke since there SIX DD guys in the majors who outperformed all but Anthony when they were in the lower farm system.
Facts are facts. You might want to not cherry pick and simple go with what is ACTUALLY happening. We watched 12 games in AA for Jeter Downs get him ranked and you professed he was a great player right up to when he got DFA’d. I have spent 40 years analyzing minor league performance and what it takes to be more than a league average or slightly above league average MLB player. It hasn’t change in 40 years and there have been very few exceptions. The control years are critical because they allow a non all-star quality player to get MLB experience before he falls by the wayside and becomes a back-up at best. Cheap young talent helps off set the pricey all-stars on a roster so they are a necessary part of roster building right up to the free agency and sometimes during arbitration years they start to cost more than they are worth.
Saying that the roster is better is a joke. Giolito is a push with Sale. O’Neill is a downgrade at the plate compared with Verdugo and probably a marginal improvement at best in the field. Grissom is definitely an upgrade at 2nd, but that isn’t suddenly going to get you to 95 wins. If they are going “all in” they seem to be doing so with a pair of deuces. On the other hand, if they are going to go with the kids, which I’m not opposed to by the way, then at least be honest about it and the fans can lower their expectations. I’m willing to roll the dice with an outfield of Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, but the rotation is still a mess. BTW it will be interesting to see if they trade Kenley and Yoshida. A decent return on both could right the ship.
sorry Sox fans, but it doesn’t look good..
Perhaps the best investment would be to build a brand new Green Monster outside of the stadium to hide that team from view until the new brass can begin to right the ship.
Yankees forever , maybe you should go hide behind old yankee stadium..since your team hasnt done anything noteworthy on the field since 2009..worry about your own glass house till they right the ship
wait, don’t tell me you are pulling out the history card, isn’t that what you guys use to clobber us over the head with prior to the end of your 84 year drought?!.
What goes around comes around eh!
Our history, your history is irrelevant all in the past, what matters is the current state of affairs. We go into the season with Cole Judge and Soto, Red Sox go in looking for the exit.
There are glass houses and then there are outhouses, I’ll be more than happy to stay in my glass house, enjoy the smell in your house
Your glass house only exposes your toilet for all to see till that group wins something..dont forget to flush.
well if you can see my toilet then the Fenway park replica that I do my business on should make me the envy of every Sox fan.
The best part, when I flush, it plays “Sweet Carolina” almost a metaphor for the Sox season going down the drain.
Best seat in the house.
Huh?? Have you missed the last 20 yrs of NYY busts. One title while the Bosox won four, including the only time a team lost a playoff after being up 3-o. Oh, that’s right it was your NYY who blew a 3-0 lead so a guess you do remember.
all true,
you know what else is true, no Yankees fans ever lived for 84 years and went to their grave never seeing their favorite team win a world series.
84 frickin years, Red Sox fans who fought in major wars, saw social upheavals, saw man walk on the moon and yet that same Red Sox fan generation lived and died never seeing a world series win, Damn man that’s got to leave a bitter taste no?
Not as bitter as the biggest choke job in all sports history makes yankee fans, while it erased all talk of the red sox drought commentators literally mention it every single time any team in any sport gets up 3 – 0 in a 7 game series.. we always have 2004 and so will you. How do you like apples lol
doesn’t bother me at all. I wouldn’t have wanted it to end any other way for you guys.
The team that stole all of your glory for all those decades should be the one to finally hand it to you.
Had to happen sooner or later right, I mean how many times could we Bucky and Boone you guys and not begin to feel some remorse for your constant misery.
Yankeesforever – As one of the biggest cities in the world you are privy to more revenue than the rest of the teams over the past 105 years. You won half the championships from 1923 to 1962 while outspending all the other teams by differentials that were astronomical. Big wealth meant big buying power and you dwarfed the spending of all teams to buy those 20 championships. Bravo for buying 20 championships. It’s not like earning it but who cares, it’s always nice to compete when you have a massive advantage.
Since 1962 which is now 62 years ago you have increased your margin of outspending the competition and maintain an even greater financial advantage but alas it came with massive ineptitude!!! In 61 years you have 7 rings. 2 in the 70s, 4 when Jeter arrived and 1 in 2009. Only one in the first 23 years of the new Century despite outspending others by Billions. Clearly, money no longer wins championships but it still provides a potential massive advantage if the money is used properly. Fortunately, for over 60 years NY has had a bunch of morons running the show.
So where is the dynasty? The dynasty died in 1962. Now, you are simply a high spending, poorly run organization that brags a lot for no reason. It’s the NY way and we all understand that. When you’ve been a bully for 100 years you get used to acting like a bully but most bullies stop being bullies when other guys beat the crap out of them. NY is too stupid to realize they aren’t the bullies any more they are the bullied!! hahaha Yep, Boston changed the course of history with one simple series reversal in 2004 and the skid of the Yankees has continued since. Sure 2009 was a fluke but flukes happen. Look at the pathetic Cora team of 2021 and how far they went without much talent. It was a fluke just like 2009 for NY. The thing that’s most amazing is that NY is too stupid to realize they aren’t the bully, that their front office sucks badly for over a decade and things aren’t going to change in the near future. Will they win the division again? Not likely. Will they make the playoffs? Maybe. Do they have the people in place to turn things around? Nope. They don’t even see the problem!!! hahaha What ineptitude.
Boston has four rings this century. They’ve had great and terrible GMs. They are down right now but are trying to turn things around. NY is fat dumb and happy. No rings is ok as long as the fan base can brag about their lack of accomplishments like you are doing. You might as well be talking about world dominance in WWII since it happened in the middle of the Yankee dominance era. Yes. 61 years of mediocrity is hardly a dynasty. The Celtic dynasty is more recent. The Patriots dynasty is more recent. Oh yeah and the Red Sox dynasty is more recent.
But hey, keep thumping that chest in ignorance. It’s a good look for a Yankee fan.
you are taking it a bit too seriously.. I was just ribbing Sox fans I mean what else is there to do during this slow period and I invite sox fans to quip me back, it’s all just for fun.
Sorry I compelled you to write the Gettysburg address.
Yankee – No problem. Young Red Sox fans should learn about the 60 years of ineptitude. Also, long comments are a standard so you didn’t generate anything longer than usual!! I’m a baseball historian because I’ve lived through it.
The Kraft’s have figured it out:
They won with Brady–they now have a Waiting List of Ticket Holders. why spend the money on BB and high-priced players?
So who thought of this first–Kraft or Henry?
So you spend money on Jerod Mayo in hopes he will field a satisfying product to maintain fan interest.
You have the money rolling in from TV revenue, The Concessions, etc.
The Ray’s figured it out many years ago. The Sox and Pat’s are late to the Party. The problem for the FANS is we will be watching poor products on the field.
madmc – What a bizarre opinion!!
The team in TB who has as many rings as I do have got it right and the teams that have 10 championships in the past 20 years don’t!!
Just writing the sentence made me realize how incredibly stupid your concept is. I’ll take the rings and not quibble about the $3 Billion in profits made each decade. Is making more really the way to go? If you are in TB it is!!! In Boston, the owners should be reinvesting in the team but instead they prefer to expand their empire and neglect their cash cow. Bad decisions by owners who finally provided the money necessary for Boston to win makes them highly controversial personas to Red Sox Nation. On the one hand we are thankful and on the other hand we are angry that they didn’t try to elongate the success. Winning rings should have no satisfaction point. It goes against the nature of competition. Sitting on ones laurels is incredibly aggravating to the fans but the fact that there are laurels is very much appreciated.
It’s quite obvious that ownership isn’t willing to have a top 5 payroll anymore if that is the case then developing young cheap talent is going to be extremely important. Moving forward until when or if ownership green lights a payroll north of the lux tax line. Even teams that have large payrolls can’t just buy a championship anymore without having the nucleus in place to go for it. It’s quite obvious, at this point, Boston doesn’t have that nucleus yet. Perhaps with enough leap forward from the young guys the nucleus will be in place to really go all in. It appears at this point ownership doesn’t believe this is a championship caliber team and thus doesn’t want to go over the tax line. At least this is what I hope and it’s not ownership not willing to carry a large payroll at all in the future regardless of nucleus.
Bruin1012 – Why do you believe Breslow has been turned down by ownership? Could it be that like Bloom he isn’t submitting contract offers for approval so no FA are being acquired? Breslow needs a vision for the future. Hopefully he has that and is trying to execute to it but without action it’s hard to know.
Quality young players costing under $1MM with FA dates on or after 2028 are plentiful in the Boston Farm System and MLB roster:
1 – Rafaela
2 – Anthony
3 – Duran
4 – Abreu
5 – Casas
6 – Teel
7 – Mayer
8 – Yorke
9 – Bleis
10 – Jordan
So where are the holes?
SP1, SP2, 2 lefty relievers, 3B and C until Teel arrives
What should Breslow focus on? SIMPLE
SP1 and SP2 and 2 lefty relievers
He has plenty of money AND has plenty of trade bait because the following players are either redundant or over paid:
1 – Yoshida
2 – Devers
3 – Story
4 – Jansen
5 – Martin
So, with all the potential sources for money or prospects why isn’t Breslow succeeding at his job?
Are there spending constraints?
– Not that I’m aware of but maybe but it seems unlikely until the CAP is met
Is there organizational profile issues to overcome? ABSOLUTELY
– You have a convicted cheater for Manager who is terrible at his job
– You have owners who lost their generational player over racism
– You have a disgruntled fan base thanks to Bloom and Ownership
– You have a park with dimensions that are uniquely appealing to some and uniquely unappealing to others
Last but not least, you have an inexperienced GM. This has been a terrible trend of ownership for many years.
1 – Hired an experienced Dombrowski and he flourished for Boston
2 – Hired an inexperienced unqualified cheater for MGR twice. Failure is his standard with the 2018 exception which was a phenomenal roster.
3 – Hired an inexperienced GM in Bloom and he destroyed the roster and the farm system along with creating many contracts that will be detrimental to the future of the organization.
4 – Hired an inexperienced GM in Breslow who is a genius on paper but you don’t win on paper. He needs to change the dynamic in Boston by firing Cora and moving Devers to 3B to fix TWO huge problems but doesn’t to have the authority or balls to do it.
The payroll will NEVER be the issue. The CAP is $237 and Breslow has reduced it down to $212 thanks to his bonehead deal for Sale.
I fully expect him to spend the available $212MM. Spending has never varied under these owners. Only acceptance of contracts have. Mookie specifically was denied a contract at full market value which was a meager $9MM raise but Devers received a ten year $12MM raise as a player that is less than half as good as Mookie because Mookie is a gold glove defender and a far better hitter and Devers is the WORST defender at 3B in history.
So the CAP should be expected to be spent and there is no ownership issue except they make bad choices frequently and don’t take immediate actions to fix things. Bloom should have lasted no more than a year, Cora should have NEVER been rehired and Dombrowski should never have been fired. That’s the issue with ownership not money.
We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one KD. It seems pretty obvious to me he is working with a hard cap on payroll. Why else would he say they have to move salary to sign someone else. I’m very familiar with companies and board of directors and such but in this case he’s not acting like like he can just go to the board and ask for money. I’m also don’t think a board of directors situation would work very well in baseball. The places I have worked at the board doesn’t move real fast and baseball requires quick decisions and constant decisions he can’t go back to the board if the dynamic changes and the price gets higher he has to make quick decisions. Imo he has a cap that ownership has given him and he’s working in that cap level. The problem right now is where is his cap really is it 225 million? Is it 200 million we don’t know.
KD I agree with you on certain things. I do agree that Breslow should have been allowed to come in and get rid of Cora. I agree that Devers should not be playing third base. I agree on a lot of what you say. I’m just realistic in that ownership said Cora was coming back as manager even before Breslow was named and if Cora is coming back Devers isn’t going to be moved off of third it’s that simple. It’s why I won’t waste anytime talking about getting rid of Cora or moving Devers because it’s not happening. Cora has some kind of sway over ownership it’s weird and it’s why no established POBO wanted the job.
Bruin1012 = The Board that convenes for baseball operations is NOT a board of directors. It includes key personnel in the Baseball Operations area not the entire company. It is also the main source of leaks when the requests are presented and members of the board know reporters and slip the information to the media.
Every team chooses to run their decision hub the way they want to but it’s critical that the board has the authority to approve spending therefore it includes at least the owner that has the controlling interest. That person may attend in person or though a proxy who sits in and communicates with the owner with approval to release funds to Baseball Operations. The reason it’s not slow moving is that the people on the board are critically involved in the day to day operations. Discussions on strategy, timing and general direction of the roster are discussed daily. It’s the think tank of baseball operations. It’s not a strategic direction group like a real board of directors. It’s an entity whose sole job is to develop options for the team and then decide on which options to pursue and then fund them.
I would not be surprised if Henry or his designated participant attends every meeting and Henry has final approval but I also expect other owners to have delegates at the meeting as well to stay informed and possibly have a vote in the actions taken by the group. Breslow should drive the meetings so the funding he needs is readily available.
If Breslow is a true theoretical guy he is doing a cost / benefit analysis on each player. If they talk to Monty or Snell’s representation and they feel he’s asking for more than the value he can provide for the time frame being suggested the haggling begins. Once the two parties agree on an amount and contract length they go to the board to get approval for the money and the deal happens. My guess is the haggling has not progressed well with Breslow. He is new at the process and maybe agents feel they can take advantage of his desperate situation. Due to the size of the O’Neill contract and the Giolito contract it appears he is really working at a disadvantage thanks to Bloom. The amounts paid were very high as was the $17MM buy down on Sale. Maybe he’s doing the best he can with the handcuffs that are on him from the Bloom days but for me I’d rather have him pay too much for a SP1 or SP2 than a guy like Giolito, O’Neill or Grissom. Not one of his acquisitions were critical to the team for improvements. They are all expensive improvements with upside but they don’t fix any of the holes. Verdugo is still the only real deal that has addressed the existing issues. He needs to move Yoshi or Devers which really means he must move Yoshi since nobody would take on Devers deal without a buy down it’s such a gross over pay.
Frankly, at this point, I’d like to see him sign Chapman and get the ball rolling on moving Devers. The team defense jumps into the top 10 if he gets Chapman because the error/misplay differential is going to over 30 which is huge. If he can’t fire Cora then hopefully he can give him an assistant who dictates what Cora can do during games and with the line-up. Moving Yoshi, Jansen and several top 100 prospects that are pretenders could get him a SP1 and SP2 but I don’t know if he has the practical experience to make that happen.
Without a 3B and two top flight SPs the team won’t get out of the cellar in the AL East and they won’t make the playoffs yet again.
My take on things so far is that O’Neill was suggested to Breslow with a detailed argument as to why he will bounce back and how that will happen. Breslow buys into it and goes to the board with a proposal for O’Neill that he believes he can make happen. The Board approves and the deal is officially brought to O’Neill and his people and finalized. Then the board rep responsible for the announcement of transaction puts together the package for announcing the move and leaks it to the press. A press conference is created and the deal is publicly and officially announced.
I think his analysts or maybe even he got into the details for both O’Neill and Giolito because someone had to sell the board on the likelihood of both players making comebacks and why. The Sale deal I believe came from Breslow’s desire to not have the team fail due to unforeseen injuries. I think he believed Sale would be injured in 2024 and wanted something more stable like Giolito. Unfortunately Giolito wasn’t high enough up the pitcher food chain to be a SP1 or SP2 so he didn’t achieve one of his goals of picking up a SP1 or SP2. That was disappointing but nobody will see it that way if Giolito bounces back to his old form. Same for O’Neill. Time will tell but these are very risky costs incurred when a rock solid SP1 and SP2 is needed.
It would be wonderful if he has some unforeseen trades he’s working on in the background to bring a SP1 and SP2 to Boston but if has no deal, Boston fans will turn on him quickly. I’m rooting for him to be as effective as DD but so far he’s not done anything that suggests he will be. Much like Bloom, he’s come in and talked more than provided action whereas DD came in with actions and then talked.
One big move to get a SP1 would change Red Sox Nation’s view on Breslow. With Burnes, Bieber and others all solid trade bait, it’s hard to sit and watch other teams pull of the moves we hoped for. Personally, I would have traded for Soto and beat out the Yankees. Soto is a generational guy like Mookie and that’s exactly what the team needs to start the repairs for the damage done by Bloom.
Your comments on Cora are spot on. Whether it’s blackmail about the cheating scandal of 2018 or something else the ownership of Boston has treated Cora with far more respect than he deserves. He is a huge blemish on the organization and someone needs to remove the blemish even if means using sandpaper to remove it. The club will look much more appealing to outsiders once the blemish is removed!!
So with the Red Sox, we fired a GM, Dave Dombroski who won a World Series a year later in 2019. We hire Chaim Bloom who really rode Andrew Friedman’s shirttails in Tampa. He traded our best player Betts for mediocre talent to get rid of Price’s contract. He fouled the team up with three last place finishes in 4 years. Now we are supposed to do big things with Breslow who was not even on the radar because no one wanted the job. He has done very little this off season. Are we supposed to give him 3 more years to turn this around. So what are we talking about between Bloom and Breslow, 6 or 7 years to get this team back to competitiveness? Are you kidding me ? Doing this in a major market baseball city like Boston. Fans should boycott this team until they put a solid competitive product on the playing field.
AL – Well said. The Mookie deal in 2020 created issues for at least 5 years because you can’t replace his talent for the money and Bloom didn’t even try. At 3 years Bloom cost Red Sox fans 5 years of winning. At 4 years it went up to 6 or 7. With Breslow, if he came in like Dombrowski and took action he could have reduced the 6 or 7 to 5 but as of now, the 6 or 7 is beginning to feel more like 7 or 8 as the 2024 season teeters on the verge of a high draft pick in 2025.
He has the money, he has the pretender prospects to move and he has the over priced players to reduce over all spending if he can unload them along with pretender prospects.
He’s primed to do great things if he’ll just start doing his job!!!
TF – I hafta respectfully disagree.
Dombrowski left in 2019, not 2018 (not really fired, he chose to leave because he didn’t agree with Henry’s demands)..
He did not win a World Series after leaving the Red Sox.
With that said, Dombrowski is a HOF executive who Henry should have supported and kept. Cora is to blame for 2019, NOT Dombrowksi.
Fever – Dombrowski was hired on August 18, 2015 and was FIRED on September 9, 2019. Those are the actual facts.
Now what the heck are you referencing? I never said he won a ring after Boston. Where did that come from?
On December 20, 2020 after the short COVID season DD was hired by the Phillies because they hadn’t made the playoffs since 2011. In fact, they only made it to .500 one time (2019) during all those years. In 2021 they won 82 games surpassing the .500 they hadn’t reached since 2011 and finished 2nd but didn’t make the playoffs. In 2022, his second season they WENT TO THE WORLD SERIES but they lost. They won 90 in 2023 and made the playoffs again but not the World Series.
So, if you hafta respectfully disagree and you aren’t referencing anything I wrote in near bye comments what the heck are you disagreeing with?
I never said DD left in 2019, I never said he won a world series after Boston and I have no idea what you disagree with.
I agree DD is a HOF GM, I agree Henry was a fool for letting him go, I agree Cora screwed the 2019 not DD.
I also believe Boston would have more rings as of now had DD never been fired and Mookie had been extended a very fair 12 year $420MM contract. It would have allowed DD a chance to evaluate all his players after the 2022 season as he had planned and I believe our 2022 team would have been Benny, Duran, Betts,Devers, Bogey, a new 2B, Casas, Vazquez with Sale, Bello, Houck, and two FA SPs that DD would have added along with a closer. I think that team then changes in 2023 because DD would replace the catcher Vazquez, the 2B, he would have moved Devers to DH and let JD go and traded for a power hitting good fielding 3B.
I think 2022 and 2023 could have been ring years in Boston with DD and Mookie!!
Fever – I was looking at FAs in 2025 and I read this about the Giolito contract:
Lucas Giolito (30) – can opt out of remaining one year, $19MM. If he does not opt out, Red Sox have $14MM club option with fewer than 140 innings pitched, or there’s a mutual option worth $19MM with 140+ IP. Both options include a $1.5MM buyout
So Boston is paying him $19MM in 2024 but the luxury tax value is $19.25. Then in 2025 if he does well he can opt out and receive $1MM from Boston making the actual cost of one year equal to $20.25MM. Or we pay him in 2025 the same $19.25MM if he pitches 140 innings in 2024. Otherwise, we are still on the hook for $14MM.. Then, in 2026 there is a mutual opt out if he pitches 140 Innings in 2025. If he doesn’t pitch enough in 2025 Boston parts way with him, if he does hit 140 Innings in 2025 Boston once again will have $19.25MM going against our CAP.
Giolito has the 17th highest salary for a SP in 2024 as of today. Is he the 17th best pitcher? Don’t you think Breslow over paid for Giolito? And for that matter, O’Neill and Grissom?
And after 3 over pays we have people believing the ownership is restricting the money being spent? I don’t get it!! It seems to me, just like Bloom, anything presented to ownership is being approved.
Lets point the finger at the GM where it needs to be pointed..
So we’re 60 MILLION aav away from the 1st CBT penalty 60!!! And that’s before a Jansen or Yoshida departure freeing up potentially up to 34.5 MILLION more?!?! 94.5 MILLION minus whoever the get is in players?! Sox Nation WILL shut off the garden house and unscrew it from the house and wheel it onto the winter crank, pop that off and put it in the garage on the top shelf until we see what happens in winter 2024. That’s just not acceptable with Pivetta & a few others leaving at year end. For sure one upper level are is justified on a decent 4 or 5 yr deal here?
WE ARE FULL THROTTLE ANNOYED! A FANDEMIC IS COMING! GET YOUR EAR MUFFS RSN BECAUSE WE HEARD ENOUGH!
WE ONLY NEED OUR EYES TO KNOW WHEN THAT FANDEMIC AT FENWAY WILL BE OVER?! STAY HOME! PROTECT YOUR EARS!
FANDEMIC COMING AT FENWAY RSN! STAY HOME & PROTECT THE EARS! FREE EARMUFFS, NO JAB! ONLY NEED EYES TO SEE OUR END OF SPEND!
Hurray Breslow signed a 17 year old outfielder, Vladimir Asencio ! That should pay dividends in about 3-4 years if we are lucky and the guy is not a bust like many are. Wake up Breslow you need pitchers and Cease is maybe a low end 2nd starter or high end third starter, not an ace!!!
This is Chaim Bloom 2.0 with Henry tightening up the purse strings! What amazes me is they scouted Yamamoto for three years and spent money watching him but were out of the sweepstakes quickly. This is an absolute disgraceful offseason! Absolutely unbelievable.
AL34 – Great topic!! Did you know Vladimir is the 33rd top rated international signee for 2024. Let’s see … there are 30 teams and we got the 33rd best!!! The Rangers who have the best GM since DD got 3 of the top 50 international prospects two of which are rated higher than our pick. Shouldn’t we be landing all kinds of great DR players thanks to all we’ve done for the DR Academy where Devers came from? If the pipeline concept isn’t working why keep playing the Butcher at 3B. We are getting no return for it!!.
Here is the latest on the top 50
1. Leo De Vries, SS, D.R.: Padres+ ($4.2 million)
2. Paulino Santana, OF, D.R.: Rangers ($1.3 million)
3. Jose Perdomo, SS, Ven.: Braves ($5 million)
4. Fernando Cruz, SS, D.R.: Cubs ($4 million)
5. Adolfo Sanchez, OF, D.R.: Reds+ ($2.7 million)
6. Yovanny Rodriguez, C, Ven.: Mets ($2.85 million)
7. Dawel Joseph, SS, D.R.: Mariners ($3 million)
8. Daiber De Los Santos, SS, D.R.: Twins
9. Kennew Blanco, SS, Ven. UNSIGNED
10. Adriel Rodney, OF, D.R.: D-backs ($1.85 million)
11. Eduardo Herrera, 3B, Ven.: White Sox
12. Jorge Quintana, SS, Ven.: Brewers
13. Roberto Arias, OF, D.R.: Guardians
14. Emil Morales, SS, Spain: Dodgers
15. Francisco Vilorio, OF, D.R.: Yankees ($1.75 million)
16. Yandel Ricardo, SS, D.R.: Royals
17. Ashly Andujar, SS, D.R.: Rockies
18. Leonardo Pineda, OF, D.R.: Rays ($1.8 million)
19. Jalvin Arias, OF, D.R.: Phillies ($1.4 million)
20. Victor Hurtado, OF, Ven.: Nationals ($2.8 million)
21. Luis Cova, OF, Ven.: Marlins ($1.4 million)
22. Jesus Made, SS, D.R.: Brewers
23. Angel Feliz, 3B, D.R.: Nationals ($1.7 million)
24. Belfi Rivera, OF, D.R.: D-backs
25. Branneli Franco, RHP, D.R.: Cardinals ($800K)
26. Raymel Ortiz, SS, D.R. UNSIGNED
27. Franklin Rojas, C, Ven.: Blue Jays
28. Stiven Martinez, OF, D.R.: Orioles ($950K)
29. Curley Martha, SS, Cur.: Rangers
30. Emilio Sanchez, SS, D.R.: Orioles ($1.3 million)
31. Jensy Rivas, SS, D.R.: Mets ($500K)
32. Angel Guzman, SS, D.R.: Blue Jays
33. Vladimir Asencio, OF, D.R.: Red Sox (approx. $1 million)
34. Andres Arias, OF, D.R.: Blue Jays
35. Oscar Pujols, RHP, D.R.: Rockies
36. Yoendry Sanchez, C, Ven.: Giants ($1 million)
37. Joswa Lugo, SS, D.R.: Angels
38. Bralyn Brazoban, OF, D.R.: Pirates
39. Eduardo Beltre, OF, D.R.: Twins
40. Jeremy Denaud, OF, D.R. UNSIGNED
41. Edward Lantigua, OF, D.R.: Mets ($950K)
42. Naibel Mariano, SS, D.R.: Reds+ ($1.65 million)
43. Edgar Montero, 3B, D.R.: Athletics ($1.2 million)
44. Jhonny Level, INF, Ven.: Giants
45. Nestor Miranda, 3B, D.R.: Tigers+ ($1.5 million)
46. Yolfran Castillo, SS, Ven.: Rangers
47. Jose Ramos OF, Ven., Athletics
48. Leandro Romero, SS, D.R.: Mariners (approx. $1 million)
49. Anderson Paula, OF, D.R.: Astros
50. Abdiel Feliz, SS, D.R.: Pirates