The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
- Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
- What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
- What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
- Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
- Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
- Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
- Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
- Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
- What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
- What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
- Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
- What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
- The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
- Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)
Check out our past episodes!
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
- Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Farhan sign snell. Thank you
Eh… he had 2 great seasons but in between average at best. Who’s paying for that!? No one. Not long term.
There’s zero chance Giants sign him to a long term deal, if Snell caves and signs the kind of deal Belli and Chapman took the Giants should be all over it.
Bring JD Davis back to the Mets, he’s better than Baty and Vientos
Really? he went downhill all year in 2023.
Ruf is the Stuff
Reigning cy young winner & WS star cant find teams? Need new agent, fire boras
“Reigning Cy Young winner & WS”…The bombastic, mercurial Scott Boras is a dinosaur, who cannot alter and adjust strategies even in a time of constantly changing markets and economic conditions.
And teams that now have more data than him.
Hehehe. Borasaurus.
Collusion???
I agree with Darragh and Tim that there’s a lot of people taking pleasure in Boras not getting the deals he set out to. I think it’s because fans tend to see things from the perspective of the team, which is natural, since that’s who they’re rooting for in the games. So if the team has to operate within these alleged restrictions, they ought to maximize their effectiveness, which is what fans like to see, even if it means the players get a woefully inadequate cut of the money that they’re bringing to the team in the first place.
It’s also probably got to do with immediacy, like, it’s easier to point at the bad contract on a team for why they’re not succeeding than the overall CBA. Casual fans know the Rendons and Stantons before Marvin Miller or even Curt Flood. They also just see that they’re getting a lot of money compared to what the average Joe does, even if the math says they should be making way more.
Pretty good analysis. One of my main issues with the Marvin Miller types, is they only seem to serve the interests of the top 5% of players and ignore the majority of player’s issues. It’s amazing the union has never fought to reduce the 6 years of team control of players to 5 or 4 years of team control.
The players union literally fight for that every time the CBA is up for renewal but it’s never going to happen.
What surprises me however is that baseball hasn’t adopted a restrictive free agency model that would allow players to enter free agency a year early.
The blue print has been in the face of MLB the entire time. Adopt a posting fee model similar to the international posting fee with stipulations:
If a team loses a player via restrictive free agency and receives revenue sharing, they get a certain percentage of the players over all value plus draft pick compensation.
Team doesn’t get revenue sharing and doesn’t pay the luxury tax they get a smaller percentage plus DPC.
Team doesn’t get revenue sharing, pays the luxury tax they get 0% but get DPC.
Signing a player is similar, revenue sharing teams pay 0%
Teams that do not pay revenue sharing pay the fee.
If a luxury tax paying team loses a player the fee goes to MLB and added to the revenue sharing pool.
“But its never going to happen”..Yeah, right. That’s complete baloney. I’ve really never heard anyone in the union speak on that actually. They’re too busy fighting for Max Scherzer’s, Anthony Rendon’s & Justin Verlander’s next lucrative contracts.
Ummmmmm….the MLBPA was pushing for it this last CBA….just because you didn’t pay attention to it does not mean it never happened, mlb fan
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/mlbpa-drops-push-for-ea…
“Pushing for it”…You can always find reasons and make excuses for failure, but it’s not like the MLBPA hasn’t had many chances for reform in the last 20+ years. And yet the MLBPA didn’t fail when it came to serving the interests of the top 5%(Max & Verlander getting 40M+ per season)of players did they? I’m glad you’re such a fan of failure, excuses and “pushing for it”.
Awwwww….did your feelings get hurt? I was simply pointing out that your statement of “That’s complete baloney.” was in fact complete baloney. Before accusing someone of being full of it….check facts first. That was and is my point….oh…and get some thicker skin.
I suggest reading Lords of the Realm for a better understanding of who Marvin Miller was and what he did for all players.
Monty can be just a flash in the pants. He’s completely unproven over the long term. Snell had 2 brilliant seasons that bookended average-ish seasons at best. Boras promised these guys the Cole type money while flying them around on his privet jets.. and right now they have nothing. Not a dollar coming in.
If I were working for the NYY when boras calls begging for that deal for snell id tell him the price dropped. 3 year deal 10million a year. With club option for year 2 & 3. F it.
“A flash in the pants” ?
Seriously doubt the 178 IQ…
Wish I had a “Privet Jet”.
How many full on Ace quality 30 start seasons does Monty have? Tell us.
3 Never said he is a full on ace.
I’m just saying you’re not smart enough to understand the term flash in the pan.
My gal tells me I’m a flash in the pants. I am working on my staying power.
Google “flash in the pants quotes” or check “urban dictionary” open your mind dude.
Basically it’s when someone is rubbing their SHORT LIVED glory in your face. Which is exactly what Boras is doing. Parading Monty’s short lived glory and minuscule track record around for huge reward. Which isn’t coming anytime soon.
Flash in the pan is also widely acceptable more commonplace for the ill read, and not to mention quite boring…
Ya. I get that you googled it and found out you been saying it wrong forever. That’s where you found the weak “urban dictionary” reference.
Like anyone uses that. Now go ahead and explain about the “privet jet”.
Sad how you instantly upvote every one of your posts. Carry on brainiac !
For the “ill read?” I am getting the feeling you are “Ill literate.”
It’s absolutely mind bottling to me that you’ve never heard the expression “a flash in the pants”.
Some people think they know it all. Others actually carry the burden.
Dang. That’s cold
Well Drasco what is mind boggling is you actually think the saying is Flash in the pants when it is actually a flash in the pan! it is a cooking saying!!!
Read him again it was a funny.
“Mind bottling” is an alcoholic term from the famous urban dictionary.
I was actually referencing Blades of Glory, the only line from that absolutely horrendous movie I remember.
It was a joke, not a dick, don’t take it so hard.
Jays…it acually refers to flintlock riffles and dates back several centuries. At times the powder in the “pan” would ignite but the rifle would not fire. All that would happen is a brief “flash in the pan”.
It came to mean something that happened briefly, never to be repeated.
Both are common. Read a book. Read some thing uggggg these people out there in the world that like you that think there’s nothing out there except what you know is shameful. Just because you’ve never heard of something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist or it’s wrong. Funny how you people don’t wana talk baseball. Just troll with nonsense. I suggest you google information before you blab.
Here’s the funny thing 178……. You have pointed to Urban dictionary as jusitfication for using “flash in the pants” instead of “flash in the pan”
according to Urban Dictionary flash in the pants is defined as “A momentary increase level of excitement between your legs” or “a momentary burst of sexual arousal (a pun on flash in the pan).”
Are you saying Monty excites you or are you too shallow to admint flash in the pan was what you meant?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Now it makes sense, 178 is gay for Montgomery, 178 is homophobic and now hates himself and Montgomery.
Thanks for clarifying.
I kind of thought 178 was going to have his Mensa membership revoked.
He’ll never admit it, and probably go on saying it wrong forever. Yo know folks smarter than Einstein (160 IQ), have a hard time with failure.
You’re full of shtt with your poorly educated talk of “privet jets” and claims that people commonly use “flash in the pants.” Notice how everybody knows you are lying and are calling you out?
I’m sorry to see you feel the need to tear others down to make yourself feel better. However, I will pray for you, big guy, as I am confident that you are capable of being better. God bless!
Aw, 78IQ created a second account to defend his idiotic “flash in the pants” gibberish. Give it up, birdbrain.
@178iq Also your name is missing a decimal point. Your welcome.
178 is kindly requesting that you focus on the other stupid comments he makes, not the improper wording of expressions.
Let’s start with Montgomery being a “flash in the PAN” despite every full season he has pitched he has maintained an ERA under 4.
He also requests that you “read a book” while we suggest 178 read a stat sheet. Let’s find a compromise guys! This isn’t congress
Yup. Not a genius.
I knew this from the gecko….
As Jon Heyman said on MLB Network, “Ohtani is not about the money.”
He cost himself hundreds of millions of dollars in 2017 by coming to the United States two years early and basically did the same thing in 2023 by signing a heavily-deffered 10-year, $700M contract.
theathletic.com/5129506/2023/12/11/dodgers-shohei-…
The previously unreported deferrals were said to be suggested by Ohtani himself as the negotiations vaulted the figure towards $700 million, the person briefed on the terms told The Athletic.
usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/dodgers/2023/12/11/s…
“So, when negotiations were getting near the level where they ended up, Shohei decided he wanted to defer almost all of his salary.”
espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39105636/inside-sh…
The question of how that desire would impact his free agency was answered by the structure of his potential contract. The Dodgers proposed multiple iterations of deals working up toward where they believed Ohtani’s would wind up: somewhere in the neighborhood of $600 million guaranteed, nearly $175 million larger than Trout’s deal with the Angels. As the total guarantee increased, the Dodgers proposed different structures that would allow them payroll flexibility, including the possibility of deferred money, like in Betts’ and Freeman’s deals.
On Thursday, Ohtani spoke of his contract through the lens of winning, happily forgoing cash now — his $40 million-plus per year in off-field revenue more than covers what he’s giving up in deferred money — so the Dodgers can build a superteam around him. It’s not just the quarter-billion dollars of net present value Ohtani gave up with the deferrals; it’s how long the Dodgers can take to pay for them. Los Angeles doesn’t need to fund deferred compensation until July 1, 2026, a point at which the organization expects to have made so much money off of Ohtani’s presence that the deal essentially pays for itself.
sfchronicle.com/sports/giants/article/giants-offer…
The Giants were all-in. Zaidi said that the team quickly jumped to what would have been the biggest deal in the history of the sport, and in every subsequent discussion, acceded to Ohtani’s wishes.
“To show the level of commitment that we had from our ownership group, really every financial target or request that was made from their camp was met and was met pretty quickly,” Zaidi said.
Jeff Passan about Ohtani’s $700M deal:
“Most people didn’t think he was a $700M player, but there were teams willing to go up to $600M (without deferrals) for him.”
youtu.be/e4nXOTuX53U
Either way, I think it’s pretty clear that Ohtani gave up a lot of money.
youtu.be/kUPjK2id9Ys
And that’s partly why Ohtani could receive those unprecedented clauses (competitive team & key-man clauses) and full no-trade protection, which, too, is the first one given out under Friedman.
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
Additionally, the “present value” of the Ohtani contract is not $438M. It’s actually around $471M.
blogs.fangraphs.com/ohtanigraphs-spreadsheet-editi…
“Actually, they’re legally obligated to set aside $46 million, based on the rules of the CBA, which is another confusing part of this discussion. The formulaic competitive balance tax number ($460 million) is often referred to as present value, and it’s certainly a present value, but it’s not exactly the same as the way I’d think about it. Instead of using market rates, it uses a contractually defined rate, the federal mid-term rate reported by the IRS each year. That’s a different thing than the present value you’d get by discounting at risk-free rates ($470 million).”
If we’re talking about the players and their union and what they consider to be records, then I think it’s logical to use their present-day value of $437,830,563.
I suppose one could take the stance that that number being just shy of 44 is coincidental. I side with Boras on this one: “The market remains status quo. No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.”
theathletic.com/5135717/2023/12/13/scott-boras-sho…
As for all the other stuff you said, yes, I acknowledged that driving salaries forward wasn’t his goal. The point is that this contract was a missed opportunity for the players’ union.
So you are saying Ohtani somehow knew the discount rate the MLBPA would use? That’s absurd. And it’s logical to use a market rate or a contractually defined rate.
Top MLB players in endorsement earnings this year, per Sportico:
1. Shohei Ohtani, $65 million
2. Bryce Harper, $7 million
3. Aaron Judge, $6 million
t-4. Mike Trout, $5 million
t-4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $5 million
sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2024/mlb-highest-pai…
Ok boomer
RIght, because all podcasts are the same as Joe Rogan’s.
Slick burn!
Several years back (2012) Prince Fielder was seeking a long term deal and was unsigned into Spring Training. Then Victor Martinez blows out a knee and Detroit hands Fielder as 9 year contract for the princely sum of 214 million. Many thought it was a desperate move and turned out badly. Maybe teams have learned not to over-react. We’ll see.
The Wheeler and Glasnow (ugh) extensions make me wonder just how much Snell and Montgomery are really seeking for them to still be unsigned.
The Glasnow move is mystifying given how much prospect capital the Dodgers gave up to get him along with the extension. Pepiot looked like he took a big step up in 2023. Glasnow has 7 career WAR because he can’t stay healthy. 5/136 for that?
Jack,
You clicked on the link about a podcast, scrolled down to the comments section, and wrote a comment to say you won’t be listening? What an odd choice of how to waste your time.
@gbs uh…
Well Jack, i had never listened to a podcast prior to this year, now i cannot wait for the next installment!! i just love these podcasts!!! To each their own i guess.
I don’t read comments, just don’t like them.
Sucks what happened to Giolito. But at least they still have Sale as a veteran anchor, unless…
unless what?
I thought my favorite team should have courted Giolito. Happy to admit I was wrong.
If there is collusion then it is certainly being done much more covertly than it was in the 80s. However, most players are signing, its not egregious like then when the reigning league MVP couldn’t find another team interested and basically no movement was happening.
It could also be that teams have their analytics people saying don’t pay more than X for this guy and Boras is well above that and won’t budge. The teams no longer give in to the Boras demands.
I don’t think the players’ union has done badly the last 10 or 20 years either; has your salary gone up as high a % as the average MLB baseball player’s has in the last 10 or 20 years?